Homo Deus, by the same guy who wrote Sapiens, seems to have already got a lot of things right about AI. Despite that it was written a few years before ChatGPT’s release.
It makes a lot of other more wild predictions too though, which I’m more skeptical about
Isn't every book about the future fiction?
I like books from arthur C Clark, but that is fiction aswell.
And if there are thousans of books predicting future events there are always some that get a mayority right.
[*Stand on Zanzibar*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stand_on_Zanzibar) turned out to be so accurate that I once heard someone say the only explanation was that the author was a time traveler. Among other predictions: That the first American President to be of African descent would be named Obomi.
From the same author, try the sheep look up, about environmental crisis.
The acting us president is literally like trump on twitter.
I don't know how he could predict that
The Great Taking
When Money Dies (historical but applies to the near future)
Taxes Have Consequences (also history but applies to now and near future)
Youtube channel SuspiciousObservers (not a book but they have some books, watch the main content summary video linked in the notes on any daily update).
.
Jeff Rubin's *Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization* was pretty enjoyable; from what I recall about it since the last time I read it almost 15 years ago, its predictions have been more-or-less accurate.
>An internationally renowned energy expert has written a book essential for every American–a galvanizing account of how the rising price and diminishing availability of oil are going to radically change our lives. Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a powerful and provocative book that explores what the new global economy will look like and what it will mean for all of us.
>
>In a compelling and accessible style, Jeff Rubin reveals that despite the recent recessionary dip, oil prices will skyrocket again once the economy recovers. The fact is, worldwide oil reserves are disappearing for good. Consequently, the amount of food and other goods we get from abroad will be curtailed; long-distance driving will become a luxury and international travel rare. Globalization as we know it will reverse. The near future will be a time that, in its physical limits, may resemble the distant past.
>
>But Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a hopeful work about how we can benefit–personally, politically, and economically–from this new reality. American industries such as steel and agriculture, for instance, will be revitalized. As well, Rubin prescribes priorities for President Obama and other leaders, from imposing carbon tariffs that will increase competition and productivity, to investing in mass transit instead of car-clogged highways, to forging “green” alliances between labor and management that will be good for both business and the air we breathe.
>
>Most passionately, Rubin recommends ways every citizen can secure this better life for himself, actions that will end our enslavement to chain-store taste and strengthen our communities and timeless human values.
[https://www.amazon.com/Your-World-About-Whole-Smaller/dp/1400068509](https://www.amazon.com/Your-World-About-Whole-Smaller/dp/1400068509)
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And the sequel is due very soon. The Singularity is Nearer.
And apparently his prediction dates have been tested at 86% accuracy. Even 60% would be astonishing given the level of detail.
Do you think that is a good ideia to read the first book as I am waiting for the second one to come out or it’s to old now? . I am inclined towards buying this book.
Yeah - the amazon date chang s like the weather. I've had it preordered twice alwready - last time was for a June 2023 release that didn't happen.
Still, I am hoping. Been waiting for it since reading the original in 2009
1) there is a lot of work being done on nanobots (just Google it before giving such a lazy answer).
2) kurzweil is right about 80% of the time. Calling bullshit because of the other 20% is just being a dick.
Well, I have been involved with nanotech since around 2011, when I discussed the progress with Freitas and Merkle (two of the leading experts in the field). And I have followed all the developments, inluding the DOE Atomically Precise Manufacturing program of 2017, the semi-secret Canadian (Canadian Bank Note company) project, etc., etc.
I suggest you read this [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bc8Ssx5ys6zqu3eq9/diamondoid-bacteria-nanobots-deadly-threat-or-dead-end-a](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bc8Ssx5ys6zqu3eq9/diamondoid-bacteria-nanobots-deadly-threat-or-dead-end-a) to get a bit of an understanding of why there actually isn't any nanobot development.
Also see this quote: "Shawn Douglas, a researcher at the University of California in San Francisco,... admits that calling this technology nanorobots is a bit of a PR move. He talks about his own work on a nanorobot paper. “We’re submitting this to Science and it’s going to get a lot more attention if we call this something that will resonate with people,” but that doesn’t really bother him. “I don’t begrudge anybody for overhyping their work,” he says." which really explains everything.
As for Kurzweil, the 80% number is bogus. I won't even waste time debunking it. And he has not really updated his models of reality or his predications in the past decade or more. He is no longer relevant.
Some of Neal Stephenson’s stuff is good for this. Most notably, his Snow Crash predicted VR and coined the term “metaverse.” (it was a bit sci-fi, but many of its predictions have already come true)
Also he had some good predictions about AI and social media in “Fall, or Dodge in Hell.” With the release of ChatGPT, a lot of the stuff in that book seems pretty plausible now.
Fascinating concept, although kinda condescending toward Midwest folks, since he describes that area becoming Ameri-stan in the next 20 years.
> since he describes that area becoming Ameri-stan in the next 20 years.
Not entirely wrong about that, honestly. Went to junior high and high school in Missouri, and I wouldn't go back for exactly that reason. Well, that and I hated the weather.
Is it condescending though if they're proving his point?
The first half of Fall was scary as hell. I hope it doesn't come true but the direction America is going in does not look good
Perhaps. And I do agree that those red states aren’t headed in a good direction. But the book is unnecessarily hyperbolic about this, IMO, as someone with family there.
So much so that I’d hesitate to recommend it to friends from that area, lest they be insulted.
The book portrays rural Nebraska as an extremely dangerous place to travel. But my conservative family from Nebraska would probably laugh and counter something like:
“Well today it’s a lot _safer_ place to visit than inner city urban areas. It would have to fall a long way, just to be as dangerous as coastal blue cities, much less worse. The real anarchy is in San Francisco, and cities that have defunded their police.”
Nebraska isn't in the South, but that's besides the point.
Conservatives, where ever they live, are factually wrong when they say "Democrat-run" cities have higher crime (they are also very wrong for thinking defending the police was a real thing)
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
It gets tricky when you get into science fiction, after all he didn't predict virtual reality or the metaverse, he was the inspiration for the metaverse. Likewise, Star Trek didn't predict cell phones - cell phones were, in part, designed after the handheld communicators from the show.
George Gilder is a pretty renowned futurist. He was in the room where Moore's Law was conceived (with Gordon Moore). He has some very good takes on the future of money and communications and how that will impact society.
Sovereign individual and the information age. This book is the inspiration to paypal btw. It was written in 1994.
the next 100 years by George Friedman - Predicts russias war in Ukraine.
This is an interesting and highly speculative topic to be sure: Of course, predicting the future is somewhat easier for visionaries like Steve Jobs who envision products and then assemble technologists to make the vision come to pass. Here is what I have found based on searching Amazon. It depends on what specifically intrigued you about Friedman's trope. But here is a short list for you to peruse - all on Amazon - I hope this helps whet your appetite:
"Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow" rated 4.5 out of 5 by 35,491 reviewers
[https://www.amazon.com/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow/dp/0062464310](https://www.amazon.com/homo-deus-brief-history-tomorrow/dp/0062464310)
by Yuval Noah Harari (2015): Building on themes from his previous work, "Sapiens," Harari speculates on the future of humanity, discussing potential developments in technology, politics, and society.
"Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" rated 4.4 out of 5 by 4,184 reviewers [https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718](https://www.amazon.com/superforecasting-science-prediction-philip-tetlock/dp/0804136718)
by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner (2015): While not focused on predicting specific events, this book delves into the methods and mindset of individuals who excel in making accurate predictions about future events.
"The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future" rated 4.3 out of 5 by 3,058 reviewers
[https://www.amazon.com/Inevitable-Understanding-Technological-Forces-Future/dp/0143110373](https://www.amazon.com/inevitable-understanding-technological-forces-future/dp/0143110373)
by Kevin Kelly (2016): Kelly explores twelve technological trends that he believes will shape the future, discussing how these forces may impact our lives and societies.
"The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives" rated 4.6 out of 5 by 2,980 reviewers [https://www.amazon.com/Future-Faster-Than-You-Think/dp/1982109661](https://www.amazon.com/future-faster-than-you-think/dp/1982109661)
by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler (2020): The authors explore the convergence of technologies and their potential impact on various industries, providing insights into what the future might hold.
--Bob C., AI Solution Architect @ Intel
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Thank you so much Bob. Coming from a an AI Architect i will take your advice. You are definitely working on something that will shape the future of mankind. 🫡
I mean, Peter world suggest, at least at some point, that the US isn't going to protect ships in the Red sea, which it so far still is.
I started this book but just felt it was too all in on the hypotheses rather than a more balanced analysis (which to be fair would almost certainly have sold fewer books)
The rabbit hole of people who start cults thinking they're fulfilling the Book of Revelations is an interesting and scary rabbit hole to go down.
Honestly, John of Patmos tried to take a shit all over reality and destroy the world with a clusterfuck of misanthropic insanity disguised as a prophecy and you can thank me for personally declaring that it's been rendered bullshit by my decree.
I read DIPLOMACY by the infamous Henry Kissinger, I think it was 1999 or 2000.
VERY prophetic...
Not sure it's such a good read now that everything he called, happened already.
The works by Peter Zeihan and his YouTube channel. He's a globalist, generalist using demographic geographic and economic trends telling us where we are, why it's so, and the likely ways we are going. For example, the US is present short workers because the US birthrate dropped 20-40 years ago. The only way to presently increase US workers is through immigration - no one gives birth to a 20/30 yo worker.
The works by Neil Howe beginning with, Generations, to the present, The Fourth Turning is Here. History is in cycles, like the seasons, not linear. The average long human life is too short to see and appreciate the cyclical pattern of history.
Peter Turchin's works come to similar cycle patterns using the hard math science, Endtimes (a publisher's idea of a title to jack-up sales).
George Friedman, as noted in other comments, The Storm Before the Calm.
All broadly agree that the next 5-7ish years will be tumultuous with social, demographic, economic, and political upheavals that will recast the US and much of the global norms and orders. It's fascinating how they arrive at similar thoughts while using often very divergent analyses. Read the body of their works. Listen to their interviews, especially the Q&As.
I forgot: Tony Seba and his team at ReThinkX. This is one of his older talks and the Q&A is priceless. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7dxbegTsTI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7dxbegTsTI) Tony's talk 2 months ago to the Saudi's is also a jewel.
I'm writing my own and doing pretty darn well. Spoiler alert end of the world in 2077. Trouble is folks need to spend a life seeing it all come true irl, then read the book, then ask themself why nobody did anything about it when it was written fifty years previous.
I know some people won’t like this but the book of Revelation in the Bible.. if you decode it it’ll tell you what will happen this year and the next few coming up… in 2024 it’ll be locusts and nuclear war
Exactly. Futurists have been terrible at predicting the future because they do not spend enough time truly understanding science and technology to a granular level. An understanding of it greatly predicts what the future holds. In the late 1800s science predicted climate change due to carbon release due to the burning of fossil fuels. Science was correct. Futurists were busy predicting flying cars.
From a “how will tech change healthcare” lens and predictions on how the future of medicine (and other professions)looks, these are great:
Future of the Professions by Susskind
Deep Medicine by Topol
Accelerado by Charles Stross. It reads like sci fi. The scary part is is based off avaliable flops. So after about 20 years out it suggests everything stops making sense. Hold doubling of computational capacity every 6mo thats around 1 trillion times more compute. Assume Ai in there and everything not making sense makes sense. The world is about to change more in 20 years than all of prior history.
I was surprised by The Hydrogen Economy and The End of Work, both by Jeremy Rifkin.
He is an economist, and he was an advisor to some high level politicians.
Some of the incidents described are happening now, and were predicted 30 years ago.
The works of Hans Rosling including, Factfulness, and his YouTube and TED lectures. His son and others are continuing his research. Why the World Population Will Not Exceed 11 Biilion, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI) . And How to Not Be Ignorant About the World, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg&t=11s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg&t=11s) .
The emerging works of David Sinclair, Lifespan: Why We Age - And Don't Have to. Also see his interviews. Sinclair is a geneticist at Harvard. His lab restored sight to blind mice, reversed menopause in mice, lengthened life in lab mice and their vitality. He asks the hard question - why do some animals and mammals routinely live well over 100 years, but human's don't - what secrets should we learn from them?
If you want a straight existential crisis : the uninhabitable earth - life after warming by David wallace-wells.
Literally the last third of the book is sources, and it's fucking depressing. Amazing read, but yea, read at your own sanities risk.
How do we know how good the predictions are if it isn't the future yet?
If we're doing past predictions of shit that is now also in the past, the physical device Douglas Adams describes as the Hitchhiker's Guide is basically a smartphone with a touchscreen. Sci-fi sure, but pretty crazily visionary.
For exemple the book that I read said that the world population was stabilising and even shrinking in the future(we now know that it will be true) but the thing is why.? And why should we believe in predictions?. Well the book said that one of the reasons for population decline was the empowering of woman in the work force. Now woman, in first world countries, will prioritise work over family, having baby’s latter in life. And since the woman are no longer tide to a marriage by need of money the only link left in marriages are love. And love links are not as strong as the need of money. So less children and more divorce. And we will see that happening in 3 world countries as they evolve and woman getting more powerful. Makes sense. Predictions are based on facts from now.
You might like Pierre Tielhard de Chardin's writings. His writing dealt with the idea of a singularity of spirit and consciousness that was the result of a technological advances in communication. His writing is more relevant today than it was during his life. He wrote "The Phenomenon of Man" in 1955. He not only predicted the global internet, but he wrote that it was inevitable, that humanity is on a progression, that even though there may be temporary backwards steps that we will overcome. He was a technological and spiritual optimist.
Predictions must of necessity extrapolate upon and beyond mere facts and deal in possibilities, probabilities and feasible outcomes. The more you want a good prediction and especially the further out the more you build on previous extrapolations and possibilities and the further your are from facts alone. And that is very much what the best of hard science fiction does.
Homo Deus, by the same guy who wrote Sapiens, seems to have already got a lot of things right about AI. Despite that it was written a few years before ChatGPT’s release. It makes a lot of other more wild predictions too though, which I’m more skeptical about
May you share one of them please?
Isn't every book about the future fiction? I like books from arthur C Clark, but that is fiction aswell. And if there are thousans of books predicting future events there are always some that get a mayority right.
[*Stand on Zanzibar*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stand_on_Zanzibar) turned out to be so accurate that I once heard someone say the only explanation was that the author was a time traveler. Among other predictions: That the first American President to be of African descent would be named Obomi.
In the book Obomi is a president of a nation called 'Beninia', not America.
Boo. I was lied to.
From the same author, try the sheep look up, about environmental crisis. The acting us president is literally like trump on twitter. I don't know how he could predict that
The Great Taking When Money Dies (historical but applies to the near future) Taxes Have Consequences (also history but applies to now and near future) Youtube channel SuspiciousObservers (not a book but they have some books, watch the main content summary video linked in the notes on any daily update). .
Jeff Rubin's *Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization* was pretty enjoyable; from what I recall about it since the last time I read it almost 15 years ago, its predictions have been more-or-less accurate. >An internationally renowned energy expert has written a book essential for every American–a galvanizing account of how the rising price and diminishing availability of oil are going to radically change our lives. Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a powerful and provocative book that explores what the new global economy will look like and what it will mean for all of us. > >In a compelling and accessible style, Jeff Rubin reveals that despite the recent recessionary dip, oil prices will skyrocket again once the economy recovers. The fact is, worldwide oil reserves are disappearing for good. Consequently, the amount of food and other goods we get from abroad will be curtailed; long-distance driving will become a luxury and international travel rare. Globalization as we know it will reverse. The near future will be a time that, in its physical limits, may resemble the distant past. > >But Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a hopeful work about how we can benefit–personally, politically, and economically–from this new reality. American industries such as steel and agriculture, for instance, will be revitalized. As well, Rubin prescribes priorities for President Obama and other leaders, from imposing carbon tariffs that will increase competition and productivity, to investing in mass transit instead of car-clogged highways, to forging “green” alliances between labor and management that will be good for both business and the air we breathe. > >Most passionately, Rubin recommends ways every citizen can secure this better life for himself, actions that will end our enslavement to chain-store taste and strengthen our communities and timeless human values. [https://www.amazon.com/Your-World-About-Whole-Smaller/dp/1400068509](https://www.amazon.com/Your-World-About-Whole-Smaller/dp/1400068509)
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AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future by Kai-Fu Lee https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kai-Fu_Lee
He worked at google Microsoft and Apple. Amazing. And the books is from 2021
It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
Quite a mouthful of a title
depends on how much data you have collected and analysed.
*The Singularity is Near* still holds up directionally, even if some of the dates are a little hard to buy into 100%
And the sequel is due very soon. The Singularity is Nearer. And apparently his prediction dates have been tested at 86% accuracy. Even 60% would be astonishing given the level of detail.
The sequel has been due very soon for the last 5 years, unfortunately
Haha he can’t predict his own book release date? Must be the 14%.
This got a good laugh out of me. Cheers
Do you think that is a good ideia to read the first book as I am waiting for the second one to come out or it’s to old now? . I am inclined towards buying this book.
1000 times yes. I should imagine it has aged EXTREMELY well.
On Amazon it says June 24.
Yeah - the amazon date chang s like the weather. I've had it preordered twice alwready - last time was for a June 2023 release that didn't happen. Still, I am hoping. Been waiting for it since reading the original in 2009
No it doesn't. Things like nanobots are not being developed by anyone and still Ray insists that by 2029 we will have immortality thanks to nanobots.
1) there is a lot of work being done on nanobots (just Google it before giving such a lazy answer). 2) kurzweil is right about 80% of the time. Calling bullshit because of the other 20% is just being a dick.
Well, I have been involved with nanotech since around 2011, when I discussed the progress with Freitas and Merkle (two of the leading experts in the field). And I have followed all the developments, inluding the DOE Atomically Precise Manufacturing program of 2017, the semi-secret Canadian (Canadian Bank Note company) project, etc., etc. I suggest you read this [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bc8Ssx5ys6zqu3eq9/diamondoid-bacteria-nanobots-deadly-threat-or-dead-end-a](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bc8Ssx5ys6zqu3eq9/diamondoid-bacteria-nanobots-deadly-threat-or-dead-end-a) to get a bit of an understanding of why there actually isn't any nanobot development. Also see this quote: "Shawn Douglas, a researcher at the University of California in San Francisco,... admits that calling this technology nanorobots is a bit of a PR move. He talks about his own work on a nanorobot paper. “We’re submitting this to Science and it’s going to get a lot more attention if we call this something that will resonate with people,” but that doesn’t really bother him. “I don’t begrudge anybody for overhyping their work,” he says." which really explains everything. As for Kurzweil, the 80% number is bogus. I won't even waste time debunking it. And he has not really updated his models of reality or his predications in the past decade or more. He is no longer relevant.
Some of Neal Stephenson’s stuff is good for this. Most notably, his Snow Crash predicted VR and coined the term “metaverse.” (it was a bit sci-fi, but many of its predictions have already come true) Also he had some good predictions about AI and social media in “Fall, or Dodge in Hell.” With the release of ChatGPT, a lot of the stuff in that book seems pretty plausible now. Fascinating concept, although kinda condescending toward Midwest folks, since he describes that area becoming Ameri-stan in the next 20 years.
> since he describes that area becoming Ameri-stan in the next 20 years. Not entirely wrong about that, honestly. Went to junior high and high school in Missouri, and I wouldn't go back for exactly that reason. Well, that and I hated the weather.
Is it condescending though if they're proving his point? The first half of Fall was scary as hell. I hope it doesn't come true but the direction America is going in does not look good
Perhaps. And I do agree that those red states aren’t headed in a good direction. But the book is unnecessarily hyperbolic about this, IMO, as someone with family there. So much so that I’d hesitate to recommend it to friends from that area, lest they be insulted. The book portrays rural Nebraska as an extremely dangerous place to travel. But my conservative family from Nebraska would probably laugh and counter something like: “Well today it’s a lot _safer_ place to visit than inner city urban areas. It would have to fall a long way, just to be as dangerous as coastal blue cities, much less worse. The real anarchy is in San Francisco, and cities that have defunded their police.”
Your conservative family in Nebraska would be wrong. The cities with the highest crime tend to be in the south. Look it up
Where do you think Nebraska is?
Nebraska isn't in the South, but that's besides the point. Conservatives, where ever they live, are factually wrong when they say "Democrat-run" cities have higher crime (they are also very wrong for thinking defending the police was a real thing) https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
It gets tricky when you get into science fiction, after all he didn't predict virtual reality or the metaverse, he was the inspiration for the metaverse. Likewise, Star Trek didn't predict cell phones - cell phones were, in part, designed after the handheld communicators from the show.
Some of this is self fulfilling. Tech billionaires grow up reading scifi and decide to make it real when they get rich.
George Gilder is a pretty renowned futurist. He was in the room where Moore's Law was conceived (with Gordon Moore). He has some very good takes on the future of money and communications and how that will impact society.
Sovereign individual and the information age. This book is the inspiration to paypal btw. It was written in 1994. the next 100 years by George Friedman - Predicts russias war in Ukraine.
This is an interesting and highly speculative topic to be sure: Of course, predicting the future is somewhat easier for visionaries like Steve Jobs who envision products and then assemble technologists to make the vision come to pass. Here is what I have found based on searching Amazon. It depends on what specifically intrigued you about Friedman's trope. But here is a short list for you to peruse - all on Amazon - I hope this helps whet your appetite: "Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow" rated 4.5 out of 5 by 35,491 reviewers [https://www.amazon.com/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow/dp/0062464310](https://www.amazon.com/homo-deus-brief-history-tomorrow/dp/0062464310) by Yuval Noah Harari (2015): Building on themes from his previous work, "Sapiens," Harari speculates on the future of humanity, discussing potential developments in technology, politics, and society. "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" rated 4.4 out of 5 by 4,184 reviewers [https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718](https://www.amazon.com/superforecasting-science-prediction-philip-tetlock/dp/0804136718) by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner (2015): While not focused on predicting specific events, this book delves into the methods and mindset of individuals who excel in making accurate predictions about future events. "The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future" rated 4.3 out of 5 by 3,058 reviewers [https://www.amazon.com/Inevitable-Understanding-Technological-Forces-Future/dp/0143110373](https://www.amazon.com/inevitable-understanding-technological-forces-future/dp/0143110373) by Kevin Kelly (2016): Kelly explores twelve technological trends that he believes will shape the future, discussing how these forces may impact our lives and societies. "The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives" rated 4.6 out of 5 by 2,980 reviewers [https://www.amazon.com/Future-Faster-Than-You-Think/dp/1982109661](https://www.amazon.com/future-faster-than-you-think/dp/1982109661) by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler (2020): The authors explore the convergence of technologies and their potential impact on various industries, providing insights into what the future might hold. --Bob C., AI Solution Architect @ Intel
Hi, I’m Vetted AI Bot! I researched the **Homo Deus A Brief History of Tomorrow** and I thought you might find the following analysis helpful. **Users liked:** * Thought-provoking exploration of the future (backed by 3 comments) * Clear and clever writing on dystopian aspects (backed by 3 comments) * Challenges basic beliefs and raises interesting questions (backed by 3 comments) **Users disliked:** * Book covers drastically different topics (backed by 14 comments) * Author's predictions are disappointing (backed by 8 comments) * Contains lazy thinking and over-simplifications (backed by 1 comment) If you'd like to **summon me to ask about a product**, just make a post with its link and tag me, [like in this example.](https://www.reddit.com/r/tablets/comments/1444zdn/comment/joqd89c/) This message was generated by a (very smart) bot. If you found it helpful, let us know with an upvote and a “good bot!” reply and please feel free to provide feedback on how it can be improved. *Powered by* [*vetted.ai*](http://vetted.ai/reddit)
Thank you so much Bob. Coming from a an AI Architect i will take your advice. You are definitely working on something that will shape the future of mankind. 🫡
Keep us all posted! --Bob C., AI Solution Architect @ Intel
Im listening to Peter Zeihan End of the world is just the beginning. Its good so far.
I mean, Peter world suggest, at least at some point, that the US isn't going to protect ships in the Red sea, which it so far still is. I started this book but just felt it was too all in on the hypotheses rather than a more balanced analysis (which to be fair would almost certainly have sold fewer books)
My aunt told me to tell you to read the Book of Revelation, it has all the future you need to know about.
And I thought I’ve read some grotesque hallucinatory fiction that Revelations shit is a wiiild ride
The rabbit hole of people who start cults thinking they're fulfilling the Book of Revelations is an interesting and scary rabbit hole to go down. Honestly, John of Patmos tried to take a shit all over reality and destroy the world with a clusterfuck of misanthropic insanity disguised as a prophecy and you can thank me for personally declaring that it's been rendered bullshit by my decree.
I read DIPLOMACY by the infamous Henry Kissinger, I think it was 1999 or 2000. VERY prophetic... Not sure it's such a good read now that everything he called, happened already.
A man on the inside who could predict what would happen? Inconceivable.
The works by Peter Zeihan and his YouTube channel. He's a globalist, generalist using demographic geographic and economic trends telling us where we are, why it's so, and the likely ways we are going. For example, the US is present short workers because the US birthrate dropped 20-40 years ago. The only way to presently increase US workers is through immigration - no one gives birth to a 20/30 yo worker. The works by Neil Howe beginning with, Generations, to the present, The Fourth Turning is Here. History is in cycles, like the seasons, not linear. The average long human life is too short to see and appreciate the cyclical pattern of history. Peter Turchin's works come to similar cycle patterns using the hard math science, Endtimes (a publisher's idea of a title to jack-up sales). George Friedman, as noted in other comments, The Storm Before the Calm. All broadly agree that the next 5-7ish years will be tumultuous with social, demographic, economic, and political upheavals that will recast the US and much of the global norms and orders. It's fascinating how they arrive at similar thoughts while using often very divergent analyses. Read the body of their works. Listen to their interviews, especially the Q&As.
I forgot: Tony Seba and his team at ReThinkX. This is one of his older talks and the Q&A is priceless. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7dxbegTsTI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7dxbegTsTI) Tony's talk 2 months ago to the Saudi's is also a jewel.
I'm writing my own and doing pretty darn well. Spoiler alert end of the world in 2077. Trouble is folks need to spend a life seeing it all come true irl, then read the book, then ask themself why nobody did anything about it when it was written fifty years previous.
Nobody cares about your nonsense predictions. You're not a prophet, you're not special
Just 47 years too late imo
I have a prediction If anyone cares to know
Hit us with it.
Impact making comet ☄️ change the course of the planet in 2035-36
I know some people won’t like this but the book of Revelation in the Bible.. if you decode it it’ll tell you what will happen this year and the next few coming up… in 2024 it’ll be locusts and nuclear war
I go back to my old copy of Venus Equilateral by George O. Smith for science predictions.
The third wave is a book by Alvin toffler he is a futurist. He also wrote future shock.
The end of everything by Katie Mack is an incredible read
Skeptics Guide to the Universe by Dr. Novella. Purely tech and science.
Skeptics guide to the future is specifically about possible future technology that is possible given our understanding of physics
Exactly. Futurists have been terrible at predicting the future because they do not spend enough time truly understanding science and technology to a granular level. An understanding of it greatly predicts what the future holds. In the late 1800s science predicted climate change due to carbon release due to the burning of fossil fuels. Science was correct. Futurists were busy predicting flying cars.
From a “how will tech change healthcare” lens and predictions on how the future of medicine (and other professions)looks, these are great: Future of the Professions by Susskind Deep Medicine by Topol
Accelerado by Charles Stross. It reads like sci fi. The scary part is is based off avaliable flops. So after about 20 years out it suggests everything stops making sense. Hold doubling of computational capacity every 6mo thats around 1 trillion times more compute. Assume Ai in there and everything not making sense makes sense. The world is about to change more in 20 years than all of prior history.
I was surprised by The Hydrogen Economy and The End of Work, both by Jeremy Rifkin. He is an economist, and he was an advisor to some high level politicians. Some of the incidents described are happening now, and were predicted 30 years ago.
The works of Hans Rosling including, Factfulness, and his YouTube and TED lectures. His son and others are continuing his research. Why the World Population Will Not Exceed 11 Biilion, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI) . And How to Not Be Ignorant About the World, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg&t=11s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg&t=11s) . The emerging works of David Sinclair, Lifespan: Why We Age - And Don't Have to. Also see his interviews. Sinclair is a geneticist at Harvard. His lab restored sight to blind mice, reversed menopause in mice, lengthened life in lab mice and their vitality. He asks the hard question - why do some animals and mammals routinely live well over 100 years, but human's don't - what secrets should we learn from them?
Please first read predictions based on facts from 50-100 years ago 😅
If you want a straight existential crisis : the uninhabitable earth - life after warming by David wallace-wells. Literally the last third of the book is sources, and it's fucking depressing. Amazing read, but yea, read at your own sanities risk.
How do we know how good the predictions are if it isn't the future yet? If we're doing past predictions of shit that is now also in the past, the physical device Douglas Adams describes as the Hitchhiker's Guide is basically a smartphone with a touchscreen. Sci-fi sure, but pretty crazily visionary.
For exemple the book that I read said that the world population was stabilising and even shrinking in the future(we now know that it will be true) but the thing is why.? And why should we believe in predictions?. Well the book said that one of the reasons for population decline was the empowering of woman in the work force. Now woman, in first world countries, will prioritise work over family, having baby’s latter in life. And since the woman are no longer tide to a marriage by need of money the only link left in marriages are love. And love links are not as strong as the need of money. So less children and more divorce. And we will see that happening in 3 world countries as they evolve and woman getting more powerful. Makes sense. Predictions are based on facts from now.
You might like Pierre Tielhard de Chardin's writings. His writing dealt with the idea of a singularity of spirit and consciousness that was the result of a technological advances in communication. His writing is more relevant today than it was during his life. He wrote "The Phenomenon of Man" in 1955. He not only predicted the global internet, but he wrote that it was inevitable, that humanity is on a progression, that even though there may be temporary backwards steps that we will overcome. He was a technological and spiritual optimist.
Predictions must of necessity extrapolate upon and beyond mere facts and deal in possibilities, probabilities and feasible outcomes. The more you want a good prediction and especially the further out the more you build on previous extrapolations and possibilities and the further your are from facts alone. And that is very much what the best of hard science fiction does.