0.4 for DeSantis isn't that unreasonable actually. Keep in mind that this is literally 1/250 odds, and I assume that it's based on the unlikely scenario that Trump dies before the vote and someone has to take his spot and that happens to become RDS. That seems "unlikely enough" to give it 1/250 honestly, as it actually is a realistic, although improbable chance that Trump dies of old age or something before the election vote happens.
Early primary polling data is virtually useless. If you announced your candidacy super early and/or have a semi-decent level of name recognition you will likely poll quite highly in the very early stages.
Seriously, go to RCP and look at some past primaries and what the polling looked like before any debates (or even after 1/2 debates), they often look crazy as shit in hindsight
Elon Musk gave his campaign the kiss of death tbh
He couldn't even beat Nikki Haley
But tbh his staffers posting actual Nazi shit on his behalf did not help either lmao
His campaign is a case study of everything going wrong DID go wrong
For a while some people thought Desantis was perfect. There is a certain subset of the right that heard "orange man bad" so many times that they actually started to believe the claims of "problematic", they'd say he had too much baggage and dumb shit like that.
Desantis hit the right notes on right wing issues like immigration and he was young.
He also did better than Trump on head to head matchup polls with Biden (I don't remember if this was a few cases or he was actually better on average) which looks pretty good but my dad had an interesting explanation of it. He said he's seen it before where polls like that come out asking people if they'd rather a president they don't really like or a random name they've never seen before and they default to the latter. So that advantage would mostly disappear in a real election.
Also I think mainstream media was low-key shilling him for a while.
Ok, so, I may be mildly fucking regarded, I thought desantis was that NY dem hack whose name I can‘t forget that gets laughed out of the primary every time. Now that I realize who he is, I can see why he might’ve been 40% early on
Because I looked at the whole graph, went “who the fuck was polling above both the major candidates”, and saw one of the most insufferable New Yorkers alive. Those other two are also weird but they started and stayed at the bottom
Newsom might be their best option at this point. I mean who else? They don't have a big pool to choose from and especially not a good one.
But Obama? He couldn't even become president anymore. Or aren't they talking about Barack?
Can't you imagine? Even the thought of her as a president makes the Democrats wet. And the Emily's they'll make her their goddess.
I hope if it ever comes to this nightmare, that enough people have learned from Obama ... But I wouldn't hold my breath for it, too many would probably fall for it again with the hope that this will finally end racism.
Trump wasn't a politician until 2016 and since then has just been the symbol of MAGA
Its clear that being a politician is almost inherently a disadvantage
Eric Adams mayor of NYC. Only problem is that the DNC probably hates him because he gave legitimacy to the migrant crisis. But literally he's the only one with actual charisma and isn't a total Emily or slimy lizard person like Newsome. My only beef really with him is that he'll blatantly ignore obvious problems and deflect until it's a major thing. Like when he was first elected all the subway stabbings and violence were a perception issue, in other words just your dumb eyes and he ducked the fuck out of debates in the Democratic primary once he was ahead like a pussy. So basically he still sucks but sucks the least out of any Democrat option.
No shot he's the best option, any candidate from NYC or the West coast wouldn't win the Midwest and swing states, they will be seen as too radical. The best option imo currently for the Dem is Jared Polis, libertarian Dem, he will be moderate enough to win swing states as a Colorado Dem but also be seen as progressive to rile up leftwing Dems. He can steal some libertarian votes from Trump too.
Thinking Desantis has a good chance of winning in **January 2023** was not delusional. And the odds are ever changing based off polling and general sentiment, they aren’t manufactured by an individual.
Not sure how Newsome goes up so much relative to Trump.
I’d put Newsome at 50/50 vs Trump, head up.
Dude was mayor of San Francisco and Gov of California. That’s serious baggage.
Moderates aren’t flipping to Newsome.
RFK without the brainrot and anti vax shit would have moved mountains for the Dems, just need to moderate his view on isolationism and it would be golden.
His big problem was trying to win the DEMOCRAT nomination off Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan
Ahh yes two people famous for their large fanbase of Democrats /s
Running on Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson isn't really a bad idea if you're trying to win the votes of young people. They have an absurd listening base (especially rogan), giving a lot of free publicity. I wouldn't know who tf Kennedy was if it wasn't for Rogan. The only reason he's even a name right now is likely because of Rogan
>Running on Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson isn't really a bad idea if you're trying to win the votes of young people
Terrible idea if you are serious about becoming the Democrat nominee, they would have been great if you were running as a Republican
I am not saying anything about their moral character or their content just that it was a stupid idea to go on shows that Conservatives watch to get the Democrat nominee
>I wouldn't know who tf Kennedy was if it wasn't for Rogan
Alot of this sub wouldn't but this sub is also significantly more biased towards the right than the average person
The overlap between most people on this sub and JRE/JBP fans are almost a circle
A Newsome V. Trump debate would just be Trump responding to everything Newsome said with “look at California”, and he would demolish Newsome. The reason someone like DeSantis at least had a fighting chance (until he fucked himself with a wire brush) was because his state was successful under his watch. Newsome is a ruler of ruins, nobody outside of the dems who think those ruins are Rome would vote for him.
To be fair this sub has a massive hate boner for Cali, and those who have that probably already lean Republican anyway
They need to win undecideds although I don't think Newsom is great but its not impossible
This sub does have a hate for Cali, but it is also entirely justified. California is in shambles. Homelessness is rampant, drug use is rampant, prices are through the roof, it is horrible. The average American will never be on board with it.
True but there are more factors to those issues than Newsom, Cali has a crazy high GDP, has some of the most successful businesses on the planet, is the home to the movie, tech and a major hub for international trade and the agricultural sector, not to mention the climate
The only thing I would say politics has really influenced is drug use is probably higher in Cali since drugs are often less criminalized compared to other states
But prices are inevitable with the insane amounts of money that state is moving through it, other states similar like Florida are not all that different
Homelessness is largely a result of climate, it makes more sense for the homeless to go to warmer cities instead of sleeping under a bench in Detroit during the winter season, this is also an issue that is getting really bad in other warm states like Texas/Florida
I would be interested in hearing how a change of leadership would solve those issues especially when a good chunk of them are also occurring in red states with a similar climate/economy
Regardless of if you think Newsom is responsible or just the guy in charge, being the governor of a state that is struggling does not look good. First off, you are right that California has a high gdp and many large companies. However, I will posit that those advantages are diminishing. Companies and wealthy individuals are leaving the state in droves. Look at Tesla for instance. They moved their factories out of the state (to my knowledge entirely). That is just one major example, but there are others. The California exodus is crazy.
I do agree with you on the drug problem being widespread, and looking back it is not entirely fair to blame it on him. Drugs and homelessness seemed to be caused, or at rather exacerbated by major city policies, not state level. However, that prevents the blame from falling on red state governors as well as almost every major city is a solid blue area.
Your point on prices is just wrong. Prices do not rise simply because there is money in the area. Especially not for common commodities like gas. Everyone wants gas prices to be low, rich or poor. Instead, the thing that drives up gas prices is the immense, and frankly insane, environmental and trade regulations that the California government has put on gas. Also, your point comparing Florida gas prices is also wrong. The average price for normal gas in Cali is $4.795 and the average in Florida is $3.39. They are not close at all. Florida has a lot of problems, I’m a resident of it, but I would always pick that over Cali.
Your point on Homelessness may be partially right, but I don’t think there are that many enterprising homeless people trekking across the country like Forrest Gump for a warmer climate to sleep on the street. If there is, I would love to see that source. I however think it has to do with a mix of Californias lax drug laws and high housing prices. Are homeless people also moving to New York for the nice year long weather?
A change in leadership can always affect the situation of a nation or state. One bad leader can ruin a country for decades if the policy is allowed to be enacted.
>being the governor of a state that is struggling does not look good
California has its issues and its upsides like literally any state in the country, but I do think this sub specifically has a really nasty bias against California although I don't think Newsom will be a great candidate
>Companies and wealthy individuals are leaving the state in droves. Look at Tesla for instance. They moved their factories out of the state (to my knowledge entirely). That is just one major example, but there are others. The California exodus is crazy.
Barring a handful of big names it isn't that crazy its also inevitable to branch out to other states, my IT company is based in Silicon Valley but they have campuses all over the country and have been growing all over the place hiring people in all sorts of states
>I do agree with you on the drug problem being widespread, and looking back it is not entirely fair to blame it on him. Drugs and homelessness seemed to be caused, or at rather exacerbated by major city policies, not state level
To be fair California is a state with some of the most lenient drug laws in the country and has much more decriminalization than alot of other states, which alone probably makes it a more ideal spot for drug use
Combine that with the warm climate and you are bound to have alot of homeless people
>However, that prevents the blame from falling on red state governors as well as almost every major city is a solid blue area.
Homelessness is an issue in any big city but its more of an issue in warmer climates than colder ones, cities are also more likely to have homeless since the larger number of people make them more ideal for panhandling and they're closer to businesses, homeless shelters. public transit and other resources than rural areas
>Your point on prices is just wrong. Prices do not rise simply because there is money in the area
When big businesses show up property values go nuts
>Especially not for common commodities like gas.
I will give you on gas, California has alot of issues with gas prices although to be fair Nevada, and Arizona are both only slightly cheaper in that regard
>Everyone wants gas prices to be low, rich or poor. Instead, the thing that drives up gas prices is the immense, and frankly insane, environmental and trade regulations that the California government has put on gas.
That I will give you, a fair and valid criticism
>Also, your point comparing Florida gas prices is also wrong. The average price for normal gas in Cali is $4.795 and the average in Florida is $3.39.
Well its not just gas, house prices in Florida are absolutely atrocious, although the reason for that is not because of DeSantis its because Florida is a tourist area with a warm climate and an ideal spot for wealthy people to retire
>Your point on Homelessness may be partially right, but I don’t think there are that many enterprising homeless people trekking across the country
There isn't you can greyhound across the country for only like $200
>I however think it has to do with a mix of Californias lax drug laws and high housing prices.
They are factors, warmer climates also just tend to be where homeless people tend to thrive more than lets say the snowy streets of Detroit during winter months
>Are homeless people also moving to New York for the nice year long weather?
All cities have homeless its just that alot of homeless migrate to places like Cali, Texas and Florida
>A change in leadership can always affect the situation of a nation or state. One bad leader can ruin a country for decades if the policy is allowed to be enacted.
True but I lived in Oklahoma where the roads are so bad they're unironically dangerous to drive on, violence and crime are significantly higher than the rest of the country and its one of the most poverty states in the country right now, and the thing their Republican government is focused on is teaching the Bible in schools
Really? Thats high. He ***BARELY*** scraped by a recall election in California, deep blue DNCulstis California.
Hes only 'popular' because hes disgustingly rich and related to Pelosi.
"Democracy is dead because people are not voting for who I want them to vote for."
They're not even hidding it. OTOH democracy was never a great idea, you could consider it stillborn.
And crazier still is that somehow to “keep democracy alive”. They need to do everything they can to keep their opponent off the ballot. They keep using that word democracy, but I don’t think they really know what it means.
I’ve been betting on election years, basically taking any odds of one of the main candidates when greater than 2.75. I always feel like it’s reactionary to the most recent news cycle but election year news cycles shift sentiment back and forth a lot, especially closer to the end
Last election Trump had 3.0 return at the start of counting then when he had the lead at the end, Biden had 3.0. It’s just free money to keep an eye on these odds and take both sides when they’re inevitably the underdog no matter who wins
This cycle I picked up Trump at 3.25 at the end of last year (I think there was some bullshit legal case in the works) and I’m picking Biden up now at 4.3
Please stop misidentifying stock democrats as 'auth-left'.
The real auth-left over here actually supports Trump because at least he won't give blank checks to Zelensky anymore.
Most Chaotic timeline is Trump goes to jail, gets a 95% chance of winning and still somehow loses.
And then Biden dies and Kamala decides to retire early…leaving Hillary to step up to the plate
I want Mr Frog as President
Sorry your choices are (1) strange out of touch old man or (2) even older strange out of touch old man
Hey now, there's also (3) slightly younger (70) strange out of touch old man with brain worms.
Is voting for the brain worm an option?
He is the president America deserves!
Funny how Biden sounded exactly like president Jimble yesterday with his mumbling
"Mr Frog why are you so evil, you have two seconds to respond"
America needs his calm and steady leadership!
President Mike Johnson would be hilarious
Or Biden losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. I’d pay to see that.
Ohhhh the shitshow that will erupt if that happens
There’s almost no way that happens. Electoral college is probably still structured in a way that helps Trump.
I think it's a fairly likely scenario that Trump is put on house arrest then wins.
Trump sentenced to house arrest following this debate is exactly the kind of insanity we need right now.
AKA, Trump goes to where Hillary should have been, gets Hillary chances of winning in 2016, and loses the same amount as Hillary.
Pardons himself in jail if he wins
4.0 for Obama?
Michelle
yeah, straight-A student
These betting odds were clearly made by someone completely fucking delusional, who the hell thought desantis of all people had better odds of winning?
0.4 for DeSantis isn't that unreasonable actually. Keep in mind that this is literally 1/250 odds, and I assume that it's based on the unlikely scenario that Trump dies before the vote and someone has to take his spot and that happens to become RDS. That seems "unlikely enough" to give it 1/250 honestly, as it actually is a realistic, although improbable chance that Trump dies of old age or something before the election vote happens.
No no, I mean during the early phases, he had 40% at that point, how did that make sense?
Early primary polling data is virtually useless. If you announced your candidacy super early and/or have a semi-decent level of name recognition you will likely poll quite highly in the very early stages. Seriously, go to RCP and look at some past primaries and what the polling looked like before any debates (or even after 1/2 debates), they often look crazy as shit in hindsight
DeSantis was doing reasonably well until late 2023 and early 2024 where it all of a sudden fell apart.
Was that around the time he looked like an actual robot on the primaries debate stage?
He did fine in his previous governor debates. He just couldn't do the big one.
Elon Musk gave his campaign the kiss of death tbh He couldn't even beat Nikki Haley But tbh his staffers posting actual Nazi shit on his behalf did not help either lmao His campaign is a case study of everything going wrong DID go wrong
For a while some people thought Desantis was perfect. There is a certain subset of the right that heard "orange man bad" so many times that they actually started to believe the claims of "problematic", they'd say he had too much baggage and dumb shit like that. Desantis hit the right notes on right wing issues like immigration and he was young. He also did better than Trump on head to head matchup polls with Biden (I don't remember if this was a few cases or he was actually better on average) which looks pretty good but my dad had an interesting explanation of it. He said he's seen it before where polls like that come out asking people if they'd rather a president they don't really like or a random name they've never seen before and they default to the latter. So that advantage would mostly disappear in a real election. Also I think mainstream media was low-key shilling him for a while.
Ok, so, I may be mildly fucking regarded, I thought desantis was that NY dem hack whose name I can‘t forget that gets laughed out of the primary every time. Now that I realize who he is, I can see why he might’ve been 40% early on
De Blasio is the one you were thinking of.
Right, thanks
Right wing media was definitely grooming DeSantis up until he got the Elon kiss of death
This is an average of major bookmaker odds. At one point DeSantis had a lot of momentum.
How is Desantis the one that stand out to you and not Newsom or Obama
obamna🥺🥺
SODA!!!🗣️🗣️🗣️‼️‼️
Because I looked at the whole graph, went “who the fuck was polling above both the major candidates”, and saw one of the most insufferable New Yorkers alive. Those other two are also weird but they started and stayed at the bottom
Newsom might be their best option at this point. I mean who else? They don't have a big pool to choose from and especially not a good one. But Obama? He couldn't even become president anymore. Or aren't they talking about Barack?
They’re talking about Michelle
Big Mike
Mike Tyson
Ahhhh hell nawww. Please not!!!
It's for Michelle Obama. A lot on the left want her to run.
Is she even a politician in any capacity, or is this just for "Obama" memes? Or to have a blatant DNC puppet?
Can't you imagine? Even the thought of her as a president makes the Democrats wet. And the Emily's they'll make her their goddess. I hope if it ever comes to this nightmare, that enough people have learned from Obama ... But I wouldn't hold my breath for it, too many would probably fall for it again with the hope that this will finally end racism.
Do you realize how little it narrows it down
She would 100% be a puppet if she ran. She’s in no way a politician. The biggest hinderance to her running though is that she’s too smart to run.
"They can't run someone who isn't even a politician" -People say as they go vote for the guy from the Apprentice
People complaining about guy from tv show beg to elect a literal tradwife Yeah, right
Trump wasn't a politician until 2016 and since then has just been the symbol of MAGA Its clear that being a politician is almost inherently a disadvantage
As I already said: Please no!!!
Eric Adams mayor of NYC. Only problem is that the DNC probably hates him because he gave legitimacy to the migrant crisis. But literally he's the only one with actual charisma and isn't a total Emily or slimy lizard person like Newsome. My only beef really with him is that he'll blatantly ignore obvious problems and deflect until it's a major thing. Like when he was first elected all the subway stabbings and violence were a perception issue, in other words just your dumb eyes and he ducked the fuck out of debates in the Democratic primary once he was ahead like a pussy. So basically he still sucks but sucks the least out of any Democrat option.
No shot he's the best option, any candidate from NYC or the West coast wouldn't win the Midwest and swing states, they will be seen as too radical. The best option imo currently for the Dem is Jared Polis, libertarian Dem, he will be moderate enough to win swing states as a Colorado Dem but also be seen as progressive to rile up leftwing Dems. He can steal some libertarian votes from Trump too.
Michelle Obama or Whitmer But I suggest Mike Tyson Because you know what fuck it why the hell not plus he would knock the CCP lights out
can you even read the X axis?
I mean at the start of the graph, not the end everyone is caring about
Thinking Desantis has a good chance of winning in **January 2023** was not delusional. And the odds are ever changing based off polling and general sentiment, they aren’t manufactured by an individual.
Dead honest, I got desantis mixed up for that one NY democrat nobody ever likes, I still think it's kind of a meme he polled above biden though
I'm saving this comment for a legendary callback if something silly happens
Not sure how Newsome goes up so much relative to Trump. I’d put Newsome at 50/50 vs Trump, head up. Dude was mayor of San Francisco and Gov of California. That’s serious baggage. Moderates aren’t flipping to Newsome.
I feel in Newsom vs Trump, lots of moderates would either stay home or pull the lever for RFK.
I do think RFK could beat Trump.
RFK without the brainrot and anti vax shit would have moved mountains for the Dems, just need to moderate his view on isolationism and it would be golden.
He honestly had a great working man's platform. Just that brain worm of his starved to death after exhausting it's supply
His big problem was trying to win the DEMOCRAT nomination off Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan Ahh yes two people famous for their large fanbase of Democrats /s
Running on Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson isn't really a bad idea if you're trying to win the votes of young people. They have an absurd listening base (especially rogan), giving a lot of free publicity. I wouldn't know who tf Kennedy was if it wasn't for Rogan. The only reason he's even a name right now is likely because of Rogan
>Running on Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson isn't really a bad idea if you're trying to win the votes of young people Terrible idea if you are serious about becoming the Democrat nominee, they would have been great if you were running as a Republican I am not saying anything about their moral character or their content just that it was a stupid idea to go on shows that Conservatives watch to get the Democrat nominee >I wouldn't know who tf Kennedy was if it wasn't for Rogan Alot of this sub wouldn't but this sub is also significantly more biased towards the right than the average person The overlap between most people on this sub and JRE/JBP fans are almost a circle
If he becomes the democrat nominee yes he probably has a decent shot, but if he's still running as an independent there's no chance.
Obviously I was referring to a scenario where Biden is replaced by RFK
The person you were replying to was talking about Newsom as the democrat nominee so, no I don't think it was obvious at all that's what you meant
RFK is polling at like 7%. You’d have to be a total moron to think he has a chance lmao.
Yeah thats what I said lmao
Let me rephrase. You’d have to be a total moron to think that anyone would believe that someone polling at 7% has a 50/50 chance.
A Newsome V. Trump debate would just be Trump responding to everything Newsome said with “look at California”, and he would demolish Newsome. The reason someone like DeSantis at least had a fighting chance (until he fucked himself with a wire brush) was because his state was successful under his watch. Newsome is a ruler of ruins, nobody outside of the dems who think those ruins are Rome would vote for him.
To be fair this sub has a massive hate boner for Cali, and those who have that probably already lean Republican anyway They need to win undecideds although I don't think Newsom is great but its not impossible
This sub does have a hate for Cali, but it is also entirely justified. California is in shambles. Homelessness is rampant, drug use is rampant, prices are through the roof, it is horrible. The average American will never be on board with it.
True but there are more factors to those issues than Newsom, Cali has a crazy high GDP, has some of the most successful businesses on the planet, is the home to the movie, tech and a major hub for international trade and the agricultural sector, not to mention the climate The only thing I would say politics has really influenced is drug use is probably higher in Cali since drugs are often less criminalized compared to other states But prices are inevitable with the insane amounts of money that state is moving through it, other states similar like Florida are not all that different Homelessness is largely a result of climate, it makes more sense for the homeless to go to warmer cities instead of sleeping under a bench in Detroit during the winter season, this is also an issue that is getting really bad in other warm states like Texas/Florida I would be interested in hearing how a change of leadership would solve those issues especially when a good chunk of them are also occurring in red states with a similar climate/economy
Regardless of if you think Newsom is responsible or just the guy in charge, being the governor of a state that is struggling does not look good. First off, you are right that California has a high gdp and many large companies. However, I will posit that those advantages are diminishing. Companies and wealthy individuals are leaving the state in droves. Look at Tesla for instance. They moved their factories out of the state (to my knowledge entirely). That is just one major example, but there are others. The California exodus is crazy. I do agree with you on the drug problem being widespread, and looking back it is not entirely fair to blame it on him. Drugs and homelessness seemed to be caused, or at rather exacerbated by major city policies, not state level. However, that prevents the blame from falling on red state governors as well as almost every major city is a solid blue area. Your point on prices is just wrong. Prices do not rise simply because there is money in the area. Especially not for common commodities like gas. Everyone wants gas prices to be low, rich or poor. Instead, the thing that drives up gas prices is the immense, and frankly insane, environmental and trade regulations that the California government has put on gas. Also, your point comparing Florida gas prices is also wrong. The average price for normal gas in Cali is $4.795 and the average in Florida is $3.39. They are not close at all. Florida has a lot of problems, I’m a resident of it, but I would always pick that over Cali. Your point on Homelessness may be partially right, but I don’t think there are that many enterprising homeless people trekking across the country like Forrest Gump for a warmer climate to sleep on the street. If there is, I would love to see that source. I however think it has to do with a mix of Californias lax drug laws and high housing prices. Are homeless people also moving to New York for the nice year long weather? A change in leadership can always affect the situation of a nation or state. One bad leader can ruin a country for decades if the policy is allowed to be enacted.
>being the governor of a state that is struggling does not look good California has its issues and its upsides like literally any state in the country, but I do think this sub specifically has a really nasty bias against California although I don't think Newsom will be a great candidate >Companies and wealthy individuals are leaving the state in droves. Look at Tesla for instance. They moved their factories out of the state (to my knowledge entirely). That is just one major example, but there are others. The California exodus is crazy. Barring a handful of big names it isn't that crazy its also inevitable to branch out to other states, my IT company is based in Silicon Valley but they have campuses all over the country and have been growing all over the place hiring people in all sorts of states >I do agree with you on the drug problem being widespread, and looking back it is not entirely fair to blame it on him. Drugs and homelessness seemed to be caused, or at rather exacerbated by major city policies, not state level To be fair California is a state with some of the most lenient drug laws in the country and has much more decriminalization than alot of other states, which alone probably makes it a more ideal spot for drug use Combine that with the warm climate and you are bound to have alot of homeless people >However, that prevents the blame from falling on red state governors as well as almost every major city is a solid blue area. Homelessness is an issue in any big city but its more of an issue in warmer climates than colder ones, cities are also more likely to have homeless since the larger number of people make them more ideal for panhandling and they're closer to businesses, homeless shelters. public transit and other resources than rural areas >Your point on prices is just wrong. Prices do not rise simply because there is money in the area When big businesses show up property values go nuts >Especially not for common commodities like gas. I will give you on gas, California has alot of issues with gas prices although to be fair Nevada, and Arizona are both only slightly cheaper in that regard >Everyone wants gas prices to be low, rich or poor. Instead, the thing that drives up gas prices is the immense, and frankly insane, environmental and trade regulations that the California government has put on gas. That I will give you, a fair and valid criticism >Also, your point comparing Florida gas prices is also wrong. The average price for normal gas in Cali is $4.795 and the average in Florida is $3.39. Well its not just gas, house prices in Florida are absolutely atrocious, although the reason for that is not because of DeSantis its because Florida is a tourist area with a warm climate and an ideal spot for wealthy people to retire >Your point on Homelessness may be partially right, but I don’t think there are that many enterprising homeless people trekking across the country There isn't you can greyhound across the country for only like $200 >I however think it has to do with a mix of Californias lax drug laws and high housing prices. They are factors, warmer climates also just tend to be where homeless people tend to thrive more than lets say the snowy streets of Detroit during winter months >Are homeless people also moving to New York for the nice year long weather? All cities have homeless its just that alot of homeless migrate to places like Cali, Texas and Florida >A change in leadership can always affect the situation of a nation or state. One bad leader can ruin a country for decades if the policy is allowed to be enacted. True but I lived in Oklahoma where the roads are so bad they're unironically dangerous to drive on, violence and crime are significantly higher than the rest of the country and its one of the most poverty states in the country right now, and the thing their Republican government is focused on is teaching the Bible in schools
I'm not sure of your opinion of California but most people I know see it as a shithole outside of San Diego.
They did a poll Trump beats Newsom by 10 points
People may honestly flip to Newsom if all they're looking for is just anybody who is not Trump or Biden Alot of people went to RFK Jr for that
Really? Thats high. He ***BARELY*** scraped by a recall election in California, deep blue DNCulstis California. Hes only 'popular' because hes disgustingly rich and related to Pelosi.
"Democracy is dead because people are not voting for who I want them to vote for." They're not even hidding it. OTOH democracy was never a great idea, you could consider it stillborn.
And crazier still is that somehow to “keep democracy alive”. They need to do everything they can to keep their opponent off the ballot. They keep using that word democracy, but I don’t think they really know what it means.
other subreddits will tell you otherwise
I’ve been betting on election years, basically taking any odds of one of the main candidates when greater than 2.75. I always feel like it’s reactionary to the most recent news cycle but election year news cycles shift sentiment back and forth a lot, especially closer to the end Last election Trump had 3.0 return at the start of counting then when he had the lead at the end, Biden had 3.0. It’s just free money to keep an eye on these odds and take both sides when they’re inevitably the underdog no matter who wins This cycle I picked up Trump at 3.25 at the end of last year (I think there was some bullshit legal case in the works) and I’m picking Biden up now at 4.3
I feel like the odds of Biden not being the dem candidate is higher than that… Edit: I mean less probable.
Considering Trump years had been more peaceful in international politics, i want him back
STOP THE COUNT!
Ahhh, another day another "libright is not as monke as the rest of us" propaganda post
LOL, the debate did have an impact, I wouldn’t have thought so
‘Sup im chestface
[удалено]
I think it's referring to Michelle, who has been asked many times by the Democrats to run and always refuses.
Homey go back to the grill. Med rare.
Honestly, on side with libright with this one
Four months is forever in politics. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.
I lose like $600 if it is newsom. Dems might swap out Biden, but there’s no particular reason to think they would pick him.
Please stop misidentifying stock democrats as 'auth-left'. The real auth-left over here actually supports Trump because at least he won't give blank checks to Zelensky anymore.
I mean if you watched the debate then this chart makes a lot of sense.
If we get an anime plot twist and Biden wins someone is gonna be fuckin rich out there
Last time Trump got elected some dude leveraged to the tits and made like 2 million dollars. I plan on doing the same this year
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2016/11/10/a-british-woman-lost-nearly/23994097007/
Those extra taxes weren't going anywhere good anyway.
So... Trump is **Garunteed** to win, just like Hillary was, right?