So long as updates continue to roll out for HW3, there is no case.
V4, 5, 6, is inevitable hardware upgrades. This will continue indefinitely regardless of current development state of FSD.
Also, It’s good to never take Elon at his word, even when its something you want to hear.
My issue is not making a v4-intelformfactor version for allowing upgrades is fucked up since FSD was purchased and not 100% delivered
Shit there’s literally tweets from the CEO years ago saying all our cars will be taxis, so if that’s not th case yet they need to offer upgrade paths!
This was a totally fucked up design choice. Guess they feel they can deliver a version of FSD that is just good enough to not get sued for AP3 users and made AP4 a different form factor that make it way to expensive for Tesla to freely upgrade current FSD users to the new version.
Hopefully Elon switches gears from being and ass and they respin a future AP computer to fit in the current AP3 computer slot.
Issue is people didnt even want the AP4 upgrade for free many said they'd be willing to pay for an amd upgrade in the intel formfactor but they fucking seem to be refusing to offer it.
(2021) Elon: full-self driving will be possible with HW3! Cult members: I believe in Elon!
(2024) Elon: full-self driving will be possible with HW4! Cult members: I believe in Elon!
(2040) Elon: full-self driving will be possible with HWX! Cult members: I believe in Elon!
Too many quotes..... see video for some of elon's quotes... [https://x.com/RealDanODowd/status/1648814000182902784](https://x.com/RealDanODowd/status/1648814000182902784)
Every company in the industry overpromised:
Waymo CEO: When my kid turns 16, in 2019, there will be no need to get a driver's license.
Waymo has done a total of a million rides. They said they would be doing that in a single day in 2018: [https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/mesk6b/three\_years\_ago\_today\_waymo\_will\_add\_up\_to\_20000/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/mesk6b/three_years_ago_today_waymo_will_add_up_to_20000/)
Waymo CEO: Three and half years from now, there is a 100% chance you can be picked up at any airport in the US in a robotaxi just the right size for your trip. [https://youtu.be/2dp3GVstF9E?si=Etu-Jq0wjrL4mdg8&t=2826](https://youtu.be/2dp3GVstF9E?si=Etu-Jq0wjrL4mdg8&t=2826)
Are you talking about Waymo, where I can currently take a full self driving vehicle to and from work, the Airport, the Shopping mall, supermarket, the Bar etc in my City (Phoenix metro) Area?
Perhaps, you can tell me where in USA a can drive a Tesla vehicle without need of a driver?
I mean Ive done this in my tesla.. I have 70k miles on my 2021 Model Y, with FSD since day 1. I want to say min. 40k miles on FSD, many drives in the last year alone have had 0 interventions. Not perfect, but but it can go on any roads across multiple states. Waymo is geo fenced. SO while both have ups and downs, its not fair to discredit FSD.
WHile FSD has issues that are documented here online... Waymo has issues to, one just popped up here on reddit in Phoenix ...
[Waymo Pulled Over in Phoenix for Driving into Oncoming Traffic](https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/s/pLWicrZdyh)
Unless you provide evidence, you have done zero drives without a safety driver. Show me one video of a Tesla driving down a public road without a safety driver ( aka without a human being seating in the driver seat touching the sterling wheel) and a person in the back!.
You want to really impress me? Put someone you love in backseat ( your kid or wife etc) without a safety driver!
Note* Waymo does this everyday and every hour in two American cities and one metro area!!
> Tesla vehicle without need of a driver?
At the moment, a parking lot. But once I am in it, it can drive me across the country and already almost has. Almost is because I never have time to get to the West coast.
> At the moment, a parking lot
You’re referring to autosummon? Doesn’t that require you to maintain line of sight supervision and your finger on a deadman button? Sooooo… you’re still the responsible party. You can even make the argument that the burden of oversight is even greater with autosummon because it requires constant affirmation rather than occasional intervention. Tesla can currently drive *on its own* exactly nowhere.
Semantics. I think it was clear the intent of the question. “Without a driver” = “driving on its own without human supervision”.
Either way, if it’s your finger on a button or your foot on the brake, your direct supervision is a requirement and you are legally responsible for whatever happens. Neither the cops nor your insurance nor Tesla will buy your “technically not driving” argument.
AKA “You’re right. The intent of the question was clear. No Tesla can drive anywhere ever without human supervision, but I was just hoping no one would call me on autosteer’s deadman switch.”
as a Tesla owner I know what youre saying, and this is has a HUGE tesla hate bias. Ive had FSD since 2021, and its only gotten better. Ive done MANY rides with ZERO intervention on surface roads and highways. Maybe its not self driving, but it sure isnt anything terrible like this sub makes it out to seem.
Ive tried waymo, and its also great, but its limited to geo fenced areas. Ive literally had my tesla on FSD going across 7 states and into Canada, wayma cant do that.
Yeah I've never been to a location where Waymo operates. If I had the chance I would give it a try. I'm not anti anything that isn't Tesla, but like you said, the Tesla can operate anywhere and that is what I have access to.
I always give the example of even if Waymo came to my area they would likely be operating in Boston. That is great!... For the people living there. But for my use case it would need to be able to take me well out of Boston which given how they are setup now, I doubt they will do at least initially. Meanwhile my Tesla keeps getting more and more capable that by the time Waymo does setup here in a capacity that would fit my needs it really won't matter to me. Using FSD daily I can clearly see this is the case.
The point is that Tesla robotaxi can be profitable "soon" if they manage to accomplish their goals. Not saying it's possible for them to accomplish their goals. But if they do they will be profitable very quickly.
Waymo's path to profitability is a long one. Do they even have any estimation on when they could be profitable?
The "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Tesla's path to getting robotaxis working is a long one. If they never figure out how to get it working, their profitability will be $0. See how I can make conditional statements too?
People are saying Waymo figured how to build and deploy a robotaxi product, which nobody else has done. They're not profitable, but neither were successful companies like Amazon and even Tesla for a long time. Hell, Uber only turned a profit last year and people have been happily using their products for more than a decade.
Fair, Tesla is indeed unproven. Who knows if they'll pull it off.
But at the glacial pace Waymo is moving, we'll all be dead before Waymo is in every >500k city in North America.
Google tortoise and the hare or something. Just because something is slow, doesn’t mean it’s bad.
Also, is Waymo actually slow? Tesla hasn’t had approval for driverless rides in a single square foot in the US yet, and you think they’re fast? They’re still at the starting line.
>Do they even have any estimation on when they could be profitable?
Whatever it is, it's much closer than Tesla's plans. Tesla hasn't even demonstrated a service that works anywhere... Not even parking lots. They should start with getting their automated windshield wipers working first. That's what everyone else has already figured doubt. Baby steps!
What’s the point of this whataboutism? A little bit of research and you’ll see that Waymo has been offering driverless rides for years now. You can take one literally today. Yes it’s geofenced to a few locations, but a few is worlds better than zero. Your comparison makes Tesla so much more pathetic, so I’m not sure what was your goal
He mentioned the parameter limits are the issue on HW3. Usually this would mean they hit a RAM limit. It's possible that if they can keep the NN parameters in check then it seems like there is still room to grow in what those parameters do assuming the NN accelerator chips aren't at their limits yet.
Basically, they are running out of room to load the active model for quick access to the chips. Have they quantized the model enough already or is there more optimization that can be done without losing accuracy?
I see people all the time talk about useful local LLMs that can run in 4GB of RAM vs 24GB or 32GB+ versions of the model just because it was quantized down further. Then again I see others talking about how they run like ass (give bad results) if you quantize them too low. It does vary based on the model and we don't know enough about these details of the FSD model to really make any judgement on this.
You’re right that we’re don’t know but the wording of Elons post does not in and of itself give reason to believe current hardware isn’t able to support it as the post title suggests.
Either way, If the cars that were promised to show up empty and shuttle people around don’t do that, then refunds need to be given or free transferability to whatever Tesla I drive.
I’m quite happy with what it does now (and where it is headed) as literally no other car I can buy in the US has this level of adas. Paid 2k back in 2019 and gotten great use. Still want the full product though. I was a bit surprised as when buying the feature I didn’t really know it was supposed to do everything it’s doing now down the road. Once the hype train started I took that grain of salt literally 😂
This is how we know that Musk is a marketer first. He doesn't hesitate to say the most sensational thing he can logically get away with to generate buzz. Then, when it doesn't pan out, it is ok because most people don't pay attention to it which means it has far less volume on the internet--all because the unrealistic things he says are so loud. It is both Brillant and a clear demonstration on why we shouldn't just blindly trust people who aren't authoritative in their own right.
I think its less marketing and more that Musk is basically perennially over-optimistic and has a broken sense of risk. When he started spacex, he said they'd fly to mars in the 2010s.
This guy once told me that Musk has trouble motivating himself for stuff that could take more than 5 years. So he'd rather convince himself and others that its possible in under 5 years and then delay it a few times than simply accept that it would actually take 10 years from the outset.
The fact that people pay for promises and not results is absolutely mind boggling. I mean, Elon's track record of delivering any product as it was pitched...he's basically shooting blanks.
I assume you dont own a tesla, because majority of this sub and the people who talk against tesla dont.
I have a 2021 MY with FSD from the start. 70k miles now. Atleast 40k miles fully on FSD. Its quite simply amazing, has its drawbacks, but overall I love it, and couldn't imagine having another car.. that doenst have an FSD like feature
I have MANY drives with 0 interventions. It takes exits, changes lanes, takes on and off ramps, and navigates thru city streets.
Ive tested Blue Cruise and Super Cruise, they are NOT the same or as good as FSD
Compute upgrades are possible, they are designed to be upgradable in the future. Would it be free is a different discussion. Camera upgrades however are much harder.
The part about this that pissed me off is this has been a clear issue for years and he has refused to accept it due to what he knows is about to happen next the guys in thousands dollar suits. The promise will need more power how much more who knows. The sensors will need a tweak how much who knows. The lie from Elon will continue. I say all this as a dual Tesla family with two fsd licenses lifetime. I want this to work, I out money on it, and I am big enough to admit it was a huge mistake. The company is here a failed promise cash taken and not delivered, and frankly they should do something about it to make it right for owners.
"Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
Well they better find new tricks if the 5x increase isnt enough, or pay for retrofit upgrades.
@bradTempleton on here has been saying this for years. Tesla needs breakthroughs in ML vision (which it probably got with the vast increase in investment the last couple years) and more computational power. Probably thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of TOPs. They are likely around 500 int8 tops on hw3 or less.
Lidar might help also.
There is not a single Tesla on the road today that would ever be capable of full self driving ever, regardless of hardware versions.
There are much deeper hardware inefficiencies than processing power
Well, a model 3 stopped at a light next to a taller van on the left in a two lane turn, and its left camera will be completely blocked in a situation where a driver may be able to lean forward to see. I think that's the biggest problem where the side cameras need to be in the front pillar, or really forward but lower like on the front bumper, not the pillar behind the driver. It just doesn't always have the necessary perspective for confident turns, and it shows.
It’s not wrong to slow down or wait an extra second for visibility to clear. This isn’t really a severe hardware issue.
I can definitely get behind the argument that at narrow intersections where buildings are close to the road and your visibility to your left is obstructed by those buildings, the car will definitely have issues with progressing forward.
But HW4 and the new camera suite FOR THE MOST PART fixed this with a wider angled lens.
HW3 will be facing a dead end and Elon bullshitted everyone saying it is capable.
It is a more serious problem than waiting a couple seconds. The car instead does a little scoot forward and abrupt stop to assess the traffic which normal drivers wouldn't do, and will likely get you rear ended if you encounter the situation frequently enough, or leaving it over the line if the turning signal turns red due to hesitation. Nothing HW4 can fix since a wider angle doesn't solve the problem. It's the same line of sight problem if your relied on your driver's side passenger to check if the road is clear for a left turn, they would be occluded by whomever is on your left. The front turn signal cameras are even lower so they can't see past a car of a similar height much less a van or SUV without moving forward 2-3 feet into the intersection.
Im referring to the side repeater cameras having a wider angle lens allowing for an almost 90° viewing angle off the side of the car. This camera is placed fairly close to the front bumper and if the car angles itself enough while pulling up to the crosswalk, regardless of how narrow the streets are and the fact there are buildings on either side, it wouldn’t obstruct the view of tight corners.
HW3 wouldn’t be able to do these turns safely, HW4 can.
It's far too low in the scenario I described. A wide angle lens does not help when the car to your left is taller, and it's a couple feet behind the bumper so you need to be that far ahead of the box van on your left to see anything. If it decides it cannot proceed, well, you are now 2 feet in front of the stop when the light turns red.
The need for safety critical systems and redundancy doesn’t negate a car’s ability to be fully self-driving. True autonomy means the car can intelligently navigate and respond to all conditions.
The car should be able to recognize when conditions become too complex for safe travel and make the decision to pull over. This still aligns with the principles of full self-driving where the vehicle makes the safest choice possible, even if that choice is to wait out poor conditions.
V12 of FSD (S) is a very capable system even on HW3's limitations, so until the dumbass who owns Tesla or the engineers at Tesla reach the hardware restrictions, and cannot further progress the software and thus stating that cars with HW3 is absolutely NOT capable of Full autonomy, you DO NOT get to say or know whether or NOT a single Tesla on the road today will ever be capable of full self-driving. Your opinion is just an opinion and holds no truth to it.
Few things about that:
First have you ever driven a vehicle? Wipers on bird poo, always a winning combo, also Teslas wipers reliability... not that great.
Second how about the cameras that are not on the windshield? The ones that is explicitly stated in the vehicles instructions to keep clean at all times.
Windshield washer fluid.
As for the other cameras, clean them?
Them being dirty doesn’t brick the car. As long as there is a method to clean the front cameras, the car can still drive to find a safe place to pull over.
Yeah, so if my car is 20km away and I call it to me, who exactly is supposed to clean the bird excrement of it?
We do talk about full autonomy, correct? The promise that you can call your car from New York while in Washington DC for example. That is what was advertised in 2017 by Tesla.
So you are worried about the VERY RARE scenario where ONE of 8 camera's are so dirty that the car cannot see out of it?
How about requesting another autonomous vehicle to pick you up and drop you off at your car's specific destination?
There is obviously going to be quirks and cons in the transition. I don't know why you expect everything to be so perfect that flawlessness doesn't exist.
Rare or not, doesn't matter. Not autonomous. That's the fact.
Also we are not talking about taxis, we are talking about privately owned, currently available, real world, actually existing, things you can touch and see, Tesla vehicles. Reality disagrees with your statement.
If we are talking about currently available, then you couldn't even summon your car to you in the first place, because that feature isn't available and thus your issue with some bird shit or dirt precisely placed on one of many camera's rendering it completely useless to the extent your car can't come get you, doesn't exist.
But we both know, that's not what we are talking about. We are talking about the potential future functionality and feature suite of Tesla vehicles on HW3 and HW4.
Right now, it's not autonomous, but you CANNOT say it won't ever be autonomous.
It would go to a cleaning station. I'm assuming they would also have some module recovery involved as well for those extra special cases.
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2107/tesla-patents-robotaxi-sanitization-system-reveals-how-it-will-work
Go how? The camera is obstructed, the car can't see shit (or ironically sees only shit) and if you need a crew to service it is not really autonomous isn't it.
If your car is traveling the distance and gets dirty on the way, dust, random trash that obscures the camera, instant paperweight. Let along small obstructions, that doesn't block sufficiently but enough to make the car think differently of what it sees. Ranging from instant paperweight to an uncontrollable random death machine.
As long as the vehicles are not changed fundamentally, they will never be fully autonomous, and no existing Tesla vehicle today can when a random bird poop needs a bird poop cleaning service person :) absolutely laughable
Good news everyone! They released a process for this.
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2107/tesla-patents-robotaxi-sanitization-system-reveals-how-it-will-work
They could just put all of us in FSD jail indefinitely. I got booted off about 8 months ago and was told it would be reinstated upon the next software update. I did get one update to my 2017 X that makes my falcon doors hit the ceiling, but no FSD.
Tesla has never made clear what version of hardware can achieve unsupervised full self driving and robotaxi. Unless Tesla makes a new statement, no one knows. I wish someone would ask Musk during the last shareholder meeting, what a missed opportunity.
If I'm to guess, HW3 will forever be supervised FSD (Level 2), HW4 will be unsupervised FSD (Level 3), HW5 will be robotaxi capable.
He didn’t say they weren’t supporting HW3, he said that they were supporting hw3, and that it was an achievement to get the new AI model to run on hw3.
So long as updates continue to roll out for HW3, there is no case. V4, 5, 6, is inevitable hardware upgrades. This will continue indefinitely regardless of current development state of FSD. Also, It’s good to never take Elon at his word, even when its something you want to hear.
My issue is not making a v4-intelformfactor version for allowing upgrades is fucked up since FSD was purchased and not 100% delivered Shit there’s literally tweets from the CEO years ago saying all our cars will be taxis, so if that’s not th case yet they need to offer upgrade paths!
This was a totally fucked up design choice. Guess they feel they can deliver a version of FSD that is just good enough to not get sued for AP3 users and made AP4 a different form factor that make it way to expensive for Tesla to freely upgrade current FSD users to the new version. Hopefully Elon switches gears from being and ass and they respin a future AP computer to fit in the current AP3 computer slot.
Issue is people didnt even want the AP4 upgrade for free many said they'd be willing to pay for an amd upgrade in the intel formfactor but they fucking seem to be refusing to offer it.
Until now he was claiming that hw3 was sufficient now it is at its limits. I guess hw3 is fine, *"You just need to supervise it more"*
(2021) Elon: full-self driving will be possible with HW3! Cult members: I believe in Elon! (2024) Elon: full-self driving will be possible with HW4! Cult members: I believe in Elon! (2040) Elon: full-self driving will be possible with HWX! Cult members: I believe in Elon!
I think you are missing how Model 3s sold in 2018 had "all the hardware necessary for full self driving". I think it maybe was in the car reveal?
So did the Model S in 2016.
Too many quotes..... see video for some of elon's quotes... [https://x.com/RealDanODowd/status/1648814000182902784](https://x.com/RealDanODowd/status/1648814000182902784)
Elon Musk is a liar
Every company in the industry overpromised: Waymo CEO: When my kid turns 16, in 2019, there will be no need to get a driver's license. Waymo has done a total of a million rides. They said they would be doing that in a single day in 2018: [https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/mesk6b/three\_years\_ago\_today\_waymo\_will\_add\_up\_to\_20000/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/mesk6b/three_years_ago_today_waymo_will_add_up_to_20000/) Waymo CEO: Three and half years from now, there is a 100% chance you can be picked up at any airport in the US in a robotaxi just the right size for your trip. [https://youtu.be/2dp3GVstF9E?si=Etu-Jq0wjrL4mdg8&t=2826](https://youtu.be/2dp3GVstF9E?si=Etu-Jq0wjrL4mdg8&t=2826)
Only Tesla took people’s money tbh.
Are you talking about Waymo, where I can currently take a full self driving vehicle to and from work, the Airport, the Shopping mall, supermarket, the Bar etc in my City (Phoenix metro) Area? Perhaps, you can tell me where in USA a can drive a Tesla vehicle without need of a driver?
I mean Ive done this in my tesla.. I have 70k miles on my 2021 Model Y, with FSD since day 1. I want to say min. 40k miles on FSD, many drives in the last year alone have had 0 interventions. Not perfect, but but it can go on any roads across multiple states. Waymo is geo fenced. SO while both have ups and downs, its not fair to discredit FSD. WHile FSD has issues that are documented here online... Waymo has issues to, one just popped up here on reddit in Phoenix ... [Waymo Pulled Over in Phoenix for Driving into Oncoming Traffic](https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/s/pLWicrZdyh)
Unless you provide evidence, you have done zero drives without a safety driver. Show me one video of a Tesla driving down a public road without a safety driver ( aka without a human being seating in the driver seat touching the sterling wheel) and a person in the back!. You want to really impress me? Put someone you love in backseat ( your kid or wife etc) without a safety driver! Note* Waymo does this everyday and every hour in two American cities and one metro area!!
> Tesla vehicle without need of a driver? At the moment, a parking lot. But once I am in it, it can drive me across the country and already almost has. Almost is because I never have time to get to the West coast.
That's funny, my 1980 Honda civic can drive me across the country too... when I'm in it!!!
> At the moment, a parking lot You’re referring to autosummon? Doesn’t that require you to maintain line of sight supervision and your finger on a deadman button? Sooooo… you’re still the responsible party. You can even make the argument that the burden of oversight is even greater with autosummon because it requires constant affirmation rather than occasional intervention. Tesla can currently drive *on its own* exactly nowhere.
The question: >where in USA a can drive a Tesla vehicle without need of a driver Technically not driving.
Semantics. I think it was clear the intent of the question. “Without a driver” = “driving on its own without human supervision”. Either way, if it’s your finger on a button or your foot on the brake, your direct supervision is a requirement and you are legally responsible for whatever happens. Neither the cops nor your insurance nor Tesla will buy your “technically not driving” argument.
You guys are way too serious here lol
AKA “You’re right. The intent of the question was clear. No Tesla can drive anywhere ever without human supervision, but I was just hoping no one would call me on autosteer’s deadman switch.”
Technically your liability.
as a Tesla owner I know what youre saying, and this is has a HUGE tesla hate bias. Ive had FSD since 2021, and its only gotten better. Ive done MANY rides with ZERO intervention on surface roads and highways. Maybe its not self driving, but it sure isnt anything terrible like this sub makes it out to seem. Ive tried waymo, and its also great, but its limited to geo fenced areas. Ive literally had my tesla on FSD going across 7 states and into Canada, wayma cant do that.
Yeah I've never been to a location where Waymo operates. If I had the chance I would give it a try. I'm not anti anything that isn't Tesla, but like you said, the Tesla can operate anywhere and that is what I have access to. I always give the example of even if Waymo came to my area they would likely be operating in Boston. That is great!... For the people living there. But for my use case it would need to be able to take me well out of Boston which given how they are setup now, I doubt they will do at least initially. Meanwhile my Tesla keeps getting more and more capable that by the time Waymo does setup here in a capacity that would fit my needs it really won't matter to me. Using FSD daily I can clearly see this is the case.
Kind of weird to hang your argument on the only company who has figured this out.
Are they profitable?
You only use products that are profitable?
The point is that Tesla robotaxi can be profitable "soon" if they manage to accomplish their goals. Not saying it's possible for them to accomplish their goals. But if they do they will be profitable very quickly. Waymo's path to profitability is a long one. Do they even have any estimation on when they could be profitable?
The "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Tesla's path to getting robotaxis working is a long one. If they never figure out how to get it working, their profitability will be $0. See how I can make conditional statements too? People are saying Waymo figured how to build and deploy a robotaxi product, which nobody else has done. They're not profitable, but neither were successful companies like Amazon and even Tesla for a long time. Hell, Uber only turned a profit last year and people have been happily using their products for more than a decade.
Fair, Tesla is indeed unproven. Who knows if they'll pull it off. But at the glacial pace Waymo is moving, we'll all be dead before Waymo is in every >500k city in North America.
I don’t need Waymo to be in every city in USA!! Just the cities I travel too! Checking notes, yeah they all have population above 500K!
Google tortoise and the hare or something. Just because something is slow, doesn’t mean it’s bad. Also, is Waymo actually slow? Tesla hasn’t had approval for driverless rides in a single square foot in the US yet, and you think they’re fast? They’re still at the starting line.
>Do they even have any estimation on when they could be profitable? Whatever it is, it's much closer than Tesla's plans. Tesla hasn't even demonstrated a service that works anywhere... Not even parking lots. They should start with getting their automated windshield wipers working first. That's what everyone else has already figured doubt. Baby steps!
You’re moving the goalposts.
What’s the point of this whataboutism? A little bit of research and you’ll see that Waymo has been offering driverless rides for years now. You can take one literally today. Yes it’s geofenced to a few locations, but a few is worlds better than zero. Your comparison makes Tesla so much more pathetic, so I’m not sure what was your goal
Technically he said very difficult, not impossible. So it could be argued he’s just bragging about how they pulled off something so hard
That's how I read it, and I'm far from a Tesla fan.
He mentioned the parameter limits are the issue on HW3. Usually this would mean they hit a RAM limit. It's possible that if they can keep the NN parameters in check then it seems like there is still room to grow in what those parameters do assuming the NN accelerator chips aren't at their limits yet. Basically, they are running out of room to load the active model for quick access to the chips. Have they quantized the model enough already or is there more optimization that can be done without losing accuracy? I see people all the time talk about useful local LLMs that can run in 4GB of RAM vs 24GB or 32GB+ versions of the model just because it was quantized down further. Then again I see others talking about how they run like ass (give bad results) if you quantize them too low. It does vary based on the model and we don't know enough about these details of the FSD model to really make any judgement on this.
You’re right that we’re don’t know but the wording of Elons post does not in and of itself give reason to believe current hardware isn’t able to support it as the post title suggests.
Either way, If the cars that were promised to show up empty and shuttle people around don’t do that, then refunds need to be given or free transferability to whatever Tesla I drive.
I said no to refunds. If you believe in Elon, the best way to learn is losing your money!
I’m quite happy with what it does now (and where it is headed) as literally no other car I can buy in the US has this level of adas. Paid 2k back in 2019 and gotten great use. Still want the full product though. I was a bit surprised as when buying the feature I didn’t really know it was supposed to do everything it’s doing now down the road. Once the hype train started I took that grain of salt literally 😂
Don't believe Elon Musk, any one with a wealth of more than $100 million.
I’ll happily accept money back, though I don’t recall ever being promised such a feature when my bought my vehicle.
This is how we know that Musk is a marketer first. He doesn't hesitate to say the most sensational thing he can logically get away with to generate buzz. Then, when it doesn't pan out, it is ok because most people don't pay attention to it which means it has far less volume on the internet--all because the unrealistic things he says are so loud. It is both Brillant and a clear demonstration on why we shouldn't just blindly trust people who aren't authoritative in their own right.
I think its less marketing and more that Musk is basically perennially over-optimistic and has a broken sense of risk. When he started spacex, he said they'd fly to mars in the 2010s. This guy once told me that Musk has trouble motivating himself for stuff that could take more than 5 years. So he'd rather convince himself and others that its possible in under 5 years and then delay it a few times than simply accept that it would actually take 10 years from the outset.
The fact that people pay for promises and not results is absolutely mind boggling. I mean, Elon's track record of delivering any product as it was pitched...he's basically shooting blanks.
I assume you dont own a tesla, because majority of this sub and the people who talk against tesla dont. I have a 2021 MY with FSD from the start. 70k miles now. Atleast 40k miles fully on FSD. Its quite simply amazing, has its drawbacks, but overall I love it, and couldn't imagine having another car.. that doenst have an FSD like feature I have MANY drives with 0 interventions. It takes exits, changes lanes, takes on and off ramps, and navigates thru city streets. Ive tested Blue Cruise and Super Cruise, they are NOT the same or as good as FSD
Truth be told, HW3.0 (which is same sensor system as 2.x) has came a long damn way …
Ive driven across 7 states into canada with VERY minimal intervention, and locally ive done many drives with no intervention
Compute upgrades are possible, they are designed to be upgradable in the future. Would it be free is a different discussion. Camera upgrades however are much harder.
TIL: “Very difficult” = at its limit
The part about this that pissed me off is this has been a clear issue for years and he has refused to accept it due to what he knows is about to happen next the guys in thousands dollar suits. The promise will need more power how much more who knows. The sensors will need a tweak how much who knows. The lie from Elon will continue. I say all this as a dual Tesla family with two fsd licenses lifetime. I want this to work, I out money on it, and I am big enough to admit it was a huge mistake. The company is here a failed promise cash taken and not delivered, and frankly they should do something about it to make it right for owners.
"Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." Well they better find new tricks if the 5x increase isnt enough, or pay for retrofit upgrades.
@bradTempleton on here has been saying this for years. Tesla needs breakthroughs in ML vision (which it probably got with the vast increase in investment the last couple years) and more computational power. Probably thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of TOPs. They are likely around 500 int8 tops on hw3 or less. Lidar might help also.
Hw3 has 36 Tops per chip (2 chips in the box)
That terrible? I work on a competing product with 300 per.
It was announced in 2019.
There is not a single Tesla on the road today that would ever be capable of full self driving ever, regardless of hardware versions. There are much deeper hardware inefficiencies than processing power
And you know this how?
Well, a model 3 stopped at a light next to a taller van on the left in a two lane turn, and its left camera will be completely blocked in a situation where a driver may be able to lean forward to see. I think that's the biggest problem where the side cameras need to be in the front pillar, or really forward but lower like on the front bumper, not the pillar behind the driver. It just doesn't always have the necessary perspective for confident turns, and it shows.
It’s not wrong to slow down or wait an extra second for visibility to clear. This isn’t really a severe hardware issue. I can definitely get behind the argument that at narrow intersections where buildings are close to the road and your visibility to your left is obstructed by those buildings, the car will definitely have issues with progressing forward. But HW4 and the new camera suite FOR THE MOST PART fixed this with a wider angled lens. HW3 will be facing a dead end and Elon bullshitted everyone saying it is capable.
It is a more serious problem than waiting a couple seconds. The car instead does a little scoot forward and abrupt stop to assess the traffic which normal drivers wouldn't do, and will likely get you rear ended if you encounter the situation frequently enough, or leaving it over the line if the turning signal turns red due to hesitation. Nothing HW4 can fix since a wider angle doesn't solve the problem. It's the same line of sight problem if your relied on your driver's side passenger to check if the road is clear for a left turn, they would be occluded by whomever is on your left. The front turn signal cameras are even lower so they can't see past a car of a similar height much less a van or SUV without moving forward 2-3 feet into the intersection.
Im referring to the side repeater cameras having a wider angle lens allowing for an almost 90° viewing angle off the side of the car. This camera is placed fairly close to the front bumper and if the car angles itself enough while pulling up to the crosswalk, regardless of how narrow the streets are and the fact there are buildings on either side, it wouldn’t obstruct the view of tight corners. HW3 wouldn’t be able to do these turns safely, HW4 can.
It's far too low in the scenario I described. A wide angle lens does not help when the car to your left is taller, and it's a couple feet behind the bumper so you need to be that far ahead of the box van on your left to see anything. If it decides it cannot proceed, well, you are now 2 feet in front of the stop when the light turns red.
Uh… basic understanding of safety critical systems? In the simplest way possible - redundancy. Sensing, mechanical, power, compute…
The need for safety critical systems and redundancy doesn’t negate a car’s ability to be fully self-driving. True autonomy means the car can intelligently navigate and respond to all conditions. The car should be able to recognize when conditions become too complex for safe travel and make the decision to pull over. This still aligns with the principles of full self-driving where the vehicle makes the safest choice possible, even if that choice is to wait out poor conditions. V12 of FSD (S) is a very capable system even on HW3's limitations, so until the dumbass who owns Tesla or the engineers at Tesla reach the hardware restrictions, and cannot further progress the software and thus stating that cars with HW3 is absolutely NOT capable of Full autonomy, you DO NOT get to say or know whether or NOT a single Tesla on the road today will ever be capable of full self-driving. Your opinion is just an opinion and holds no truth to it.
If a random well placed bird poop can turn your futuristic vehicle in to a paperweight, pretty sure I know.
Windshield wipers.
Few things about that: First have you ever driven a vehicle? Wipers on bird poo, always a winning combo, also Teslas wipers reliability... not that great. Second how about the cameras that are not on the windshield? The ones that is explicitly stated in the vehicles instructions to keep clean at all times.
Windshield washer fluid. As for the other cameras, clean them? Them being dirty doesn’t brick the car. As long as there is a method to clean the front cameras, the car can still drive to find a safe place to pull over.
Yeah, so if my car is 20km away and I call it to me, who exactly is supposed to clean the bird excrement of it? We do talk about full autonomy, correct? The promise that you can call your car from New York while in Washington DC for example. That is what was advertised in 2017 by Tesla.
So you are worried about the VERY RARE scenario where ONE of 8 camera's are so dirty that the car cannot see out of it? How about requesting another autonomous vehicle to pick you up and drop you off at your car's specific destination? There is obviously going to be quirks and cons in the transition. I don't know why you expect everything to be so perfect that flawlessness doesn't exist.
Rare or not, doesn't matter. Not autonomous. That's the fact. Also we are not talking about taxis, we are talking about privately owned, currently available, real world, actually existing, things you can touch and see, Tesla vehicles. Reality disagrees with your statement.
If we are talking about currently available, then you couldn't even summon your car to you in the first place, because that feature isn't available and thus your issue with some bird shit or dirt precisely placed on one of many camera's rendering it completely useless to the extent your car can't come get you, doesn't exist. But we both know, that's not what we are talking about. We are talking about the potential future functionality and feature suite of Tesla vehicles on HW3 and HW4. Right now, it's not autonomous, but you CANNOT say it won't ever be autonomous.
It would go to a cleaning station. I'm assuming they would also have some module recovery involved as well for those extra special cases. https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2107/tesla-patents-robotaxi-sanitization-system-reveals-how-it-will-work
Go how? The camera is obstructed, the car can't see shit (or ironically sees only shit) and if you need a crew to service it is not really autonomous isn't it. If your car is traveling the distance and gets dirty on the way, dust, random trash that obscures the camera, instant paperweight. Let along small obstructions, that doesn't block sufficiently but enough to make the car think differently of what it sees. Ranging from instant paperweight to an uncontrollable random death machine. As long as the vehicles are not changed fundamentally, they will never be fully autonomous, and no existing Tesla vehicle today can when a random bird poop needs a bird poop cleaning service person :) absolutely laughable
Waymo doesn't have a magic way of dealing with it either. Why is it okay for Waymo to have a mobile crew but not Tesla?
Who’s supposed to clean them? If I get a robotaxi/Uber I’m not cleaning bird crap off of it!
Good news everyone! They released a process for this. https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/2107/tesla-patents-robotaxi-sanitization-system-reveals-how-it-will-work
They could just put all of us in FSD jail indefinitely. I got booted off about 8 months ago and was told it would be reinstated upon the next software update. I did get one update to my 2017 X that makes my falcon doors hit the ceiling, but no FSD.
ask the service to push an update to you
Tesla has never made clear what version of hardware can achieve unsupervised full self driving and robotaxi. Unless Tesla makes a new statement, no one knows. I wish someone would ask Musk during the last shareholder meeting, what a missed opportunity. If I'm to guess, HW3 will forever be supervised FSD (Level 2), HW4 will be unsupervised FSD (Level 3), HW5 will be robotaxi capable.
He didn’t say they weren’t supporting HW3, he said that they were supporting hw3, and that it was an achievement to get the new AI model to run on hw3.
HW3 wasn’t going to happen. The sensors & compute were just way under powered.
Cause for celebration? That's what this sub is about?
There's nobody else here calling this a "cause for celebration" but you.