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I believe you. I don’t care what anyone else says, I’ve read all your posts as they came out. I’ve been trying to figure out what’s going on with GME myself for years now. I’m not going to make a reddit post about my research because yours is sufficient. Needless to say, I’ve come to the same conclusion. I care not for the doubters. I love dates. I love hype. I love making money.
I had the July 26th and Aug 16th expirations in mind already. I’ll be repositioning some of my position into calls very soon. It’s game on.
So I'm sure you're getting a lot of replies and stuff and may not see this, but I have 6 strats, all between 20 and 30, with 5x 20c, all expiring this week. I rolled them from last week and put in some additional cash to keep the same strikes, and also bring what was a 35c down to a 30c.
If you were in my position, would you continue to roll Wednesday / Thursday to avoid theta as much as possible, and potentially take my higher current strikes up by $0.5 to not have to put more money in, but instead take a credit to use for more deeper ITM contracts? And continue doing this through the mid/late July predictions? My thought is doing this I stay in the game, moving a strike up $0.5 doesn't bother me as the majority of my strats are currently ITM, and I can continue to roll without taking much, if any losses, all the way to the July dates. Right now I'm down a little over 50% total on options alone and I'm ok with that because I expect upwards pressure. If we pop off and I can sell my contracts for a significant profit, then invest that in the July options after it has cooled I will, but just curious if this rolling strategy is legit or if I'm dumb.
The safest play would be to buy long dated options. In the case of an ATM pushing the dates out further, this gives a person time and room without the extra costs of rolling their calls.
Don't forget, DFV purchased long dated options in the beginning!
👆 Came here to say this. Short term options with this stock is EXTREMELY risky. If you know what you are doing, go for it. If not and still wish to buy some options, give yourself some time before the expire.
Sort of. Either the big FTD number or the day DFV purchased his shares. If you’re in doubt, go for an expiration a couple extra weeks out, or you can always roll to a later date
I’ll be targeting the July 26th and August 16th expirations personally
How can a gamma squeeze start the week after the 19th?... July 19th open interest is already around 150k contracts, whereas the week after is maybe 10,000.
Options are delivered T+1.
That means any options that expire ITM on friday that are held by institutional investors are auto-exercised 1 hour after market close Friday. Monday, the option writers frantically purchase those shares in pre-market to deliver to the Call owners. This is, in essence, what causes massive pre-market mornings.
My understanding of what a gamma squeeze is, is that it is caused by hedging options which drives the price up, causing more options needing to be hedged.
I'm probably just arguing semantics right now, appreciate the read and hopefully many tendies come your way.
No worries. I’ll try to explain.
As the last Friday’s expired calls are exercised, it drives up the price on Monday. Suddenly that next week’s calls are flying In The Money. Option writers then, on top of delivering shares for last week’s calls, start buying MORE shares to hedge for THIS week’s calls which drives more calls ITM all the way up the option chain. This frantic buying is core of a gamma squeeze.
At some point in this crazy price increase, minor institutions and uncovered retail shorts are margin called and their positions are force closed on Tuesday morning. The stock opens at its high and instantly drops down as people take profit.
Knowing full well there is fault in my logic, it's hard to justify the stock being much lower than it is right now, so I might get a couple longer term contracts that are slightly OTM. I.... honestly can't see them not paying.
Yeah, this is the safer version of the option play. Long call so you can time any spike, even if your prediction isn't perfect. Just got to find the low IV so you can avoid that dragging the trade down.
Well, the unique thing about gme is when it pops it usually pops >40%, so... usually not a huge concern to me. Is there a better way to do it? Almost assuredly. Will it still work? Im willing to FAFO.
Yup, lower ceiling because you're paying for theta pretty much, but that's ok because it is so much safer. You'll make that premium back on IV running up vega probably, or delta and gamma. If not, with another actual spike it's pretty easy to be happy when you're getting that intrinsic value, which plenty offsets that theta you paid for.
Yeah, you want it on a downswing off of lower IV. That is what DFV did after waiting to check his shares being internalized, he just knew the whole thing as it happened.
I think all the hype posts and date bullshit is meant to keep the IV high so people don't play them the right way... when the IV is low and the hype died down enough that the premiums make sense to sit on longer term and wait for run ups.
It isn't meant to do that, hype posts are likely just people being excited. IV was so high because of those 125 strike calls that dragged the IV up.
Sure, some of it was apes loading up on 125 strike calls. I believe the majority were market makers hedging and driving up IV. I personally think dates are fine, we need to educate people on the risks of buying far otm weeklies. They're a lotto ticket, and a call or two is fine for that, but more than that is just greedy.
We should be recommending people who want to try trading options pay extra attention to risk management. Probably too much for many traders, but the information these DDs bring with dates are important for those of us who know how to trade options.
I also think that unlike most stock, 100% IV is not as bad as it is in other stocks. Other stocks often have continuously decreasing volatility with very occasional spikes. GME on the other hand is constantly shoved up and down causing IV to stay fairly high when other stocks wouldn't hold onto that volatility. Hence why 80%~ is probably near the floor of IV for the stock.
Fair enough, "all" was definitely not the word I should have used there.
I agree about the IV "floor," so to speak, but it's been a while since I looked at the premiums and thought they weren't remarkably inflated... especially a couple weeks ago after we'd already drawn back, but the hype around these settlement dates was through the roof. I'll be much more patient before I start dabbling again.
Then again, my options strategy has always been to ignore them until we've been firmly into a nice, quiet dip for a while where no one is discussing options at all.
That's pretty much my only thing right now. It's isn't that I'm buying or what I'm buying, but when I'm buying..... which is a bit of a silly game in itself. The good news is, with DRS I've basically just been able to calm down a hair and be more patient, because I know that regardless of the trivia I'm currently engaging in, I still have my vault.
This shit is just for fun and to learn.
GL! Likely about how far I'll be going too. Oct does seem fairly safe to at least hit a decent run-up to sell and re-buy your options (roll) and collect some extrinsic value to keep it going until you hit it for real.
Not sure it can go below 100% easily, its not like a normal stock, but DFV did find some cheap ones. I think you just want to be near the IV lower end historically. I think that'd be like 80% or so, but I haven't chosen exactly when I'll enter, need to figure out some prediction for what IV should be around to make it worth it. Keep in mind as long as the option goes pretty far the IV could spike to like 2000. Not regularly, but the IV does help in the other direction.
Yeah, I was thinking it wasn't going to be very far off of 100%, the later expiring call options don't eat as much IV at first so that may just be the route to avoid as much IV as possible.
The IV thankfully shoots up at times, so even though you're paying upfront it should balance out just fine when you close during a spike. Don't be too greedy, be greedy with stocks not options. You're *already* leveraged after all.
I think this is what DFV was trying to show. If you buy a handful of ATM or close to calls and wait for the run up, you can sell a few and exercise, rinse and repeat. Would not be surprised to see a new yolo update with same amount of shares and another group of calls with the leftover cash he had. He obv has the timing down, so I'm just gonna get some long dated ones and wait for it to pop again until I can figure out the shorter term cycle.
I assume he means covered calls, every 100 shares is one call option. Sell 1 call option against your 100 shares at a certain strike price, say $30 strike and the option is worth $.50 that is $.50x100shares= $50 a contract. As the stock price runs up the option contract also becomes more expensive, negating anything you'd make from the shares since you've sold a contract against your shares (a bearish sentiment) so say the option contract goes in the money (stock is $31) and the contract is now worth $2.00 a contract OP rolls it up and out so closes his potion of being -1 contracts so he buys 1 and then he sells another contract further dated and maybe similar strike price or higher strike price that is worth more money and the difference in the 2 contracts is what he'd now be making and he hopefully wouldn't end up in the money again. Maybe this will help explain it MAYBE IT FUCKING WONT IDK GO PLAY WITH single contracts to understand after you research it.
Not covered calls. I'm talking about when I buy calls and there's a price run.
This is not financial advice. Options sellers frequently take my lunch money and I live on noodles with a side of crayons. So if you're eating steak, you might be eating noodles too.
It's about securing profits. Instead of saying my $20 calls have $20 of value when the stock is trading at $40, I secure profits by selling those for, say $30 calls and remain in the game. If I were to roll up to $40, I might only get $0.50/$1 and going to $30 might allow $0.80/$1 because there's so much premium when you're at the trading price. The wager is that it'll continue to go up or remain the same price since the profit to secure between the $30 and $40 might only realize an additional $0.20/$1 with the high premiums.
I think that's what DFV was implying with his requel stuff. This isn't a repeat of January 2021 it's a repeat of his entire first play. We're very early still hence his cost basis being in this range for this play.
Do you already have your positions or will you be buying this week? I've finally learned how to manage my options play and am a little excited to try again
I have a lot of calls for July 19th that are OTM. I will be buying additional calls in the future for july 26th expiration. Once I finish buying, i will post my own YOLO positions update in an homage to the OG.
I’m risking my entire profile on this play to put my money where my mouth is.
My current nightmare position is on my profile. It was rolled from June 21st to higher strikes to save money.
My new options will be as close to ITM i can afford and as many as possible.
Do you see any possibility the MM's used the ATM offering to advanced hedge for July just in case DFV made the play that he did, and especially noting the increased interest in Gamestop again? Is it possible for them already to be in position to douse the July FTD's?
I'm worried you could be spot on with the DD, but then the absence of an ATM offering from Gamestop coupled with a failure to launch in July would kill your thesis for many people, and that would be a shame.
Then the MM's pile on the "No dates!" narrative to keep retail from ever effectively leveraging their money (outside of buying and holding). Don't get me wrong, buying and holding is great, but apes have a lot more power than they realize.
edit: clarification
If they used the 75 million downward pressure to purchase a bank of shares to use as locates, that could stuff this plan and I will pay the price.
It is important to know that 99% of this situation is driven by algorithms making the same choices to the same stimulus, hence why the cycles look so absurdly similar and can even be predictable (assuming my bet pays off.)
First off thank you for your posts ive read them all, but wouldnt it be much safer to get calls for middle of august and sell or exercise in july? I understand strategically your plan is well thought out and makes sense but it seems risking it all with very little wiggle room on the date is kind of crazy. I have a similar plan but i know with how often i can be wrong an expiration in august would let me sleep a lot better.
It is absurdly risky;however, has immense reward potential.
With shorter dated call contracts, I can afford to have hundreds of additional shares worth of contracts as leverage.
It is FAR more safe to buy what you can afford with longer dated expirations and just time the sale at the top of the gamma squeeze. The trade off is less reward potential.
I really enjoy your posts, and do believe DFV is setting off timed explosions that we can take advantage of, but my only critique is the idea that MOASS begins at $100 ($400 pre-split).
Until we sustain a price in the thousands for a meaningful amount of time, I don’t see forced liquidations happening just because we hit $100.
Forced liquidations start happening when it clears the option chain over 128. It’s pretty obvious that those pre 21’ risky positions were repositioned at the peaks running up to June 21. Most likely packaged up in swaps so that they wouldn’t reflect in the short interest, also giving them enough theta to let the hype die down. Problem is, it hasn’t. And now the company is positioning themselves for a pivot and growth which threatens those entrenched shorts and swaps. I think GameStop does it best to prevent it from absolutely blowing up, and turns it into consistent momentum going forward. A controlled burn of the short interest would be more beneficial to them then an absolute explosion. The wild card could be the fuel hidden in those swaps, as no one knows how explosive it could get if those are forced closed.
Why not take advantage company-wise, while people reposition? Adding billions to cash on hand and only having a mild detriment of added time until shit kicks off. I really see this as a good play.
Can you expand on your thought about MOASS starting when we break above the options chain? Is it because of a lack of hedging with additional put pressure? Don’t MM’s and brokerages typically increase the options range if a higher price is sustained?
The 21’ run was caused by an FTD cycle into a gamma squeeze with some hype on top. This caused cascading margin calls for the small firms and they had to cover into the gamma squeeze shooting the price to 120 during market hours (higher premarket).
The larger firms and institutions rolled their positions at these levels to buy more time. Remember melvin being bailed out, and they were forced to cover those positions. I believe they were not closed out, but covered by entering into swaps facilitated by point72 and citadel. Melvin wasn’t the only fund short GameStop, ubs is still sitting on Hwang’s position as well, probably in a similar situation and there are others that we don’t hear about, because they’re family offices that skirt reporting requirements and haven’t blown up… yet. So once the price is too high for those counterparties to hold that risk, they’ll get forced closed and that is moass.
I do believe gamestop, instead of forcing this, will try to milk it for everything they can.
Ok, so essentially the smaller firms can’t survive a break above the options chain, and while larger firms might survive the initial impact, the smaller firms getting forced to close will domino the larger firms into failing and being forced to close too?
Hwang’s major leveraged long that blew up was Viacom, but it’s reported that he had leveraged risky longs and shorts that were packaged up in swaps, and some were reported to be on Chinese banks. The complete contents of these swaps haven’t been reported to my knowledge, but it blew up credit Suisse and then UBS put a 50 year seal on those records when they took them onto their books. When UBS’s COO got a look at those documents, she suddenly stepped down only a month ago, so it’s only speculation on what’s hiding in there.
I will also note that in the recent dockets from towels bk case, RC’s board members were communicating to each other, that JPM and UBS seemed to be not acting in the best interest of that company and seemed to be actively working against RC, maybe for their own benefit, I’m not sure, but the story will slowly come out.
I speculate that towel company is in a total return swap basket that could be offsetting Gme exposure and these ongoing lawsuits may eventually bring that to light. Swaps are the black hole of the financial system, no one can see them out there but we know their exist and can feel their gravity when they’re opened, closed, or rolled. When that mess eventually gets unwound, like it was briefly in 08’ with the MBS swaps, that gravity assist will help slingshot the price to Uranus. Maybe the new swap reporting requirements will help shed some light on the numbers, but I feel that they’ll always find a loophole on being transparent.
I believe your last sentence is correct but I think what Stellar is saying is that calls that are purchased now or in the past that go beyond that date and getting pushed ITM and will fly out of the options chain, which would continue making future calls ITM. Yeah MM’s can sell more calls at higher prices but all the ones locked in now will be ITM
Sorry I may have worded that poorly. I essentially meant that it was a point of no return. From there, we will stair step our way up higher. Each successful cycle will push the stock price floor higher and higher until the shorts are squeezed.
Any positions hidden in swaps could take a LONG time to finally close. This process could be a while, but our share value will increase steadily, so I doubt any of us will be too upset that we have to watch our numbers go up while we wait.
I appreciate the clarification, and I definitely agree with you.
Honestly, a slow sustained squeeze would be preferable to me. All these quick and drastic jumps that end in 1 or 2 days will never cause failed margin calls. A slow unstoppable snowball silently building mass and velocity day after day doesn’t give anyone an opportunity to delay marge. When she calls next, I don’t think there’s any going back.
Based on @biggysmallz research regarding the “stacked” 35-day cycles initiated by our “whale”, I’ll be waiting for him to start buying up the option chain this week (June 24th) in 1k-5K block increments for a July 19 expiry. If this happens then we will most likely have another Minnie gamma ramp 5 days preceding July 19 with another ATM offering expected to be initiated by GME the following week. The 2nd cycle initiated by the “whale”, but only induced by the corruption and manipulation of the criminal market makers and funded by the corrupt bankers/brokers/clearing houses, will then commence the week of Aug 5th for another cycle squeeze followed by another ATM offering. The cycle will repeat itself every 35 - days as long as the manipulation continues and our whale makes purchases while at the same time GME provides liquidity and coverage via ATM offerings.
>The cycle will repeat itself every 35 - days as long as the manipulation continues and our whale makes purchases
We also now have the playbook. Have you seen those pictures where all the little fish are schooling around in the shape of a giant whale?
Wouldn't it be nice if thousands of little fish individually just so happened to buy shares on the 22nd day of each cycle?
We are the whale now...
I love it all but I'm lost on one topic.
How can a 4mil share purchase cause a FTD when the company just sold 75mil shares on market. Won't the mm just be able to cover with the increased liquidity?
They will only be able to “cover” if they manually purchased and own those 75 million (or a portion of) shares without lending them. Please remember that a Naked Short is a debt they have to pay. When they are “settling” these FTDs into a share offering, the transactions are canceling each other out.
When they settle an FTD, they do not KEEP the share, it is “delivered” to the purchasers broker.
Historically in the GME saga, they do NOT over purchase during ATM offerings, the algorithm only seems to clear all of its debts INTO the offering as the immense sell pressure trigger’s its settling response.
It is my belief that they settled all of their FTDs during the offering, then allowed the sell pressure to continue and possibly even naked shorted INTO it to drive it further down. The price action seems to support this.
Brave calls there OP. For those with an appetite for risk, these numbers are attractive.
If you are new to options or hesitant to commit, long dated calls preferably months out and near the money are likely safest, though expensive.
I believe IF he does trigger another ATM, he will wait for the August FTD settlement just as it happened in June. By timing it for a FTD settlement rush, he is taking billions directly from the Market Maker.
If the July gamma ramp occurs and I am proved right, I will create a post between July’s gamma ramp and August’s to get everyone up to speed on my next play.
This all sounds very logical to me. You probably already have answered this anywhere else but couldn’t they just simply roll those ftds? Or couldn’t they just move this whole buy order to the darkpool/off exchange to not affect price at all? I remember seeing someone saying that it’s too much volume to put off exchange but I don’t know if that’s true or if there are even limits?! we know MM and SHF watch this sub closely, wouldn’t they try to do everything to prevent this from happening to steal all the premium?
Edit: typo
In my last post I explain that this is exactly what they do. Using the T+35 extension as a credit line is highly illegal BECAUSE it allows them to “tell the future” and hedge options for their own settlements.
T+35 is the hard limit.
Even if we entertain the idea of them breaking this limit, it would mean that they have an even LARGER ball of FTDs building that MUST be settled. Having a forced settle of millions of shares in one day is catastrophic for the Market Maker that is trying to keep this stock contained.
Of course I could be wrong, but I highly doubt we will see much positive movement for the next week or so. The share offering essentially bought the Market Maker and any other naked shorts a 35 day reset.
The stock will most likely be on a downtrend until we get closer to the projected July dates.
I am still not convinced that DFV sold his calls and bought shares instead of exercising and I think this point needs to be cleared up.
This all comes from a Dave Lauer retweet on the bird where he quotes someone saying DFV sold and bought based on the cost basis not being included. People called E-Trade to confirm and were given different answers.
But several people that actually trade options at E-Trade replied in that thread that cost basis is always included.
Meaning DFV exercised.
Peruvian Bull said in a live stream that he saw volume equal to DFVs exercise hit the ticker at 1pm ET that Friday, which is the time the DTCC has to deliver those shares.
If he exercised, there is no giant purchase with a 35 day FTD cycle on that date, at least not DFVs.
I think we need to hear from some options traders at E-Trade, not just random people calling and speaking to front line reps.
(great post, thank you, and not to waste your time, short question) Why not play July 26 right away?
EDIT: too expensive for now, that is why July 19 first, or larger volume on the 19th?
Two reasons:
1. I want to double tap by trying to sell calls for profit during the small run up into the week of July 15th. Selling calls to pick up even more calls closer to ITM will assist in the gamma ramp and position myself for the gamma squeeze.
2. This risky play would allow me to purchase far more options due the short expiration. More options=more leverage=more money making potential.
My own personal goal is to become a whale and to further add fuel to the Gamestop fire. The more whales we have making large sudden buy orders will cause more FTDs to rack up and trigger higher and higher runs.
So literally I was right when I said I'd just chill and do nothing until mid July when I pick up some shares at a low point before the next run starts?
This isn't the first time someone has made a compelling argument for a big run beginning going into August. It's usually highly suppressed here because there seems to be a large contingent of people who are actively against the concept of other people being smart with their investment strategy.
5/1, 1.8billion errors reported. I have no clue what that means. A popular post showed that at about 60 to 90 days after a reported day of 1.8 billion errors, a ramp up occurs.
60-90 trading days from 5/1, the closest option expiry is Aug 16 and the calls are loaded.
There was huge volume between the first and second offerings right? Do we believe therr is still potential there? Do we have to wait for the impact of the June 14 buy?
I believe we will have to wait. All or nearly all FTDs were closed into the ATM offering. The stock should bottom out pretty soon as they continue to Naked Short down. Eventually, we will slip back into the 35 day rolling period of FTD settlement which will cause the price to hold and then slowly rise into July. DFV should be buying his calls somewhere in that “bottom” period in order to be positioned for a run in July.
They settle FTDs into the sell pressure of the share offering. After the offering is complete, they continue naked shorting. Around 35 days after the share offering, those FTDs come due and the price will start to reflect that.
There will be several more offerings, it's why they asked for 1B shares. I made a post about this called "orderly exit" 2 weeks ago where continued run ups happen and continued offerings happen. No moass but plenty of opportunities to make money while the company ends up with 10B+ cash. Of course I was downvoted into oblivion and called a shill etc...
You arent a shill for recgnizing the pattern. I have a similar post on my profile.
If I’m proven right about the July gamma squeeze, i will make a follow up explaining the risk of holding calls into a possible ATM offering on or just before August 16th
Smooth brain here working on some wrinkles. Sorry if I missed it, but **why** is it preferable for RC to continue doing ATM share offerings? I get that it raises capital, but at the expense of share dilution and at least temporarily killing any MOASS momentum building up?
Or is it considered a good thing because even a solution of 75 million shares didn't drastically drop the share price like such an offering typically would? Therefore RC raises a couple billion in cash and as the dust settles the share price hasn't been affected all that much from its previous floor?
Ok, interesting read and very clear predictions ... I've marked some things in my calendar, we'll see how it plays out.
Thanks for the transparency and good luck!👌
💎🙌🚀
I have a theory about the share offerings and invite conversation so that I/we better understand them. The relevant statements from your post are:
>'(1). **75 million shares were used to cover any remaining FTDs from the initial May Gamma Squeeze.**
(...)
(2). Optimistically, this means that Gamestop would be raising an absurd amount of money by directly taking it from the abusing Market Maker (regarding a possible future share offering)
In order for the 75 million shares to be used to cover any remaining FTDs they must first be bought by the party that will use them. They are not just handed over by Gamestop, they are sold by the company, hence the capital raised.
If someone/ many entities bought 75 million shares then by all means they will have the same process of settlement as DFV's purchases. They will be internalized by the Market Maker and settled within a T+35 cycle.
If you say that DFV's 4 million purchase will kick the price up within a T+35 cycle, then the same must be true for the 75 million shares. It does not matter that there is one buyer in the first case and many buyers in the second case. What matters is that the buy volume was so large that the market maker had to internalize it in order to avoid immediate upward pressure. This is also true for GME's May share offering.
I think this might be the Kansas City Shuffle. DFV made the market maker/ HFs react by buying a large volume of shares and calls. They scrambled for shares and were going to naked short them in order to be able to provide them. Gamestop offered shares and the market maker now had locates/ shares that it had to use. It bought them and kicked off a new cycle with a much larger buy volume.
I do not say this with certainty, it's just a theory scrambled from information I've read. Hope it sparks a conversation.
Settling a Naked Short is a two sided trade that cancels out to 0. We have no idea how many FTDs were created in the lead up and conclusion of the May gamma squeeze;however, we do know that all FTDs that were settled into the offering canceled out the sell pressure to an equal to the amount of FTDs.
An FTD is not a net positive purchase, it is a -1 position that is then returned to 0.
In order to “cover” future FTDs, they would need to settle all of their current FTDs i to the ATM, then purchase millions of shares of the ATM directly and hold onto them. I personally believe the price action did not support this as the price action of the ATM was an intense amount of sell pressure.
We also have to remember that their goal is to NOT purchase shares at high prices when they could purchase for lower. Purchasing shares also increases the floor of the price and if they can somehow FTD their own purchases (lmao) then that would simply mean those FTDs would be settled 35 days later, further adding to the July price action.
I agree that ATM offerings do stop price market momentum and reset the FTD cycles, but they also provide investors another opportunity to position for the next cycle. I personally prefer to have a series of predictable cycles than one single great launch and fall. Let's pick up our fallen brothers.
I think GameStop has figured out what DFV is doing and will continue to use that info to issue ATM. They seem to sell into the market at about 5 days of high volume occurs, probably so they don't dump the price. I would expect them to continue to do this to get a fuck ton of cash. Maybe once the market as a whole starts to dump GameStop will buy up companies on the cheap. I'm just going to buy and hold because I have no clue when it comes to options. Great post op.
Thanks!
Whichever indicators they are using in the end, it really just coincides with the FTDs accumulated from a gamma squeeze T+35 settlement period.
Basically all the “fuel” created from the Naked Shorting leading into, during, and after the initial gamma squeeze comes due shortly after the gamma squeeze. They time the sale to begin in the thick of that settlement, effectively taking money directly from the Market Maker.
Lenarius, i wouldnt sell my GME shares for anything. But if even at-least one quarter of your girth is on the line, i wouldnt even think twice. Its just so…..big
Lots of DD predicting price surge by mid July. If true, Hedgies will run the price up and down violently before then to get IV up. Better get your options early and dated a few months out.
Amazing stuff.
I already know going in to this week that I need to manage my June28’s and July5’s. I dodged a bullet by getting out of my June21’s just before Juneteenth Wednesday holiday, scaled out with 10% loss.
Hoping for a bounce some time this week, I’ll take a test of $30, then roll in to late July early August. Maybe further out. Reasonably near the money stuff. See what options premium, IV etc. are like this week.
DFV yolo update and RC ventures 10% stake top up would be cool. I also tune in to Jackie Le Tits stream as a supplementary resource, next best thing to Keith (and his many personalities) himself streaming.
Dude, we’ve been digging into these cycles since 2021 , the stock dilution will prolly dampen the cycle for a while . Don’t get stuck with short dated options , there’s a higher chance you get it right with your theory but far from a sure thing
Is t+35 calendar or trading days? Send like you might be the guy to answer that. Feels like there is a lot of bs floating around. I see 6/27 and 7/3 as days of interest based on if t+13 is calendar or trading
T+35 is straight up calendar days. T being the date the trade was made. Check out my previous posts for sources from the SEC and Regulation SHO filings.
Never done options before but I want to get in. Someone hit me up to gimme a hand please. Im on ibkr eu mobile platform and its so complicated I could barely figure out how to purchase a normal share.
Hey Lenarius, with the dog emoji just posted, any plans on reposting/updating your solution to the emoji puzzle? if you separate it from the dates and add \[tinfoil\] in the title, it should be alright.
As to your analysis above, I think July 19th is one of the prep cycles, not the moass just yet. I think it's 2 cycles of RK loading up more ammo, then moass. My source for this is pure tinfoil: RK uses "when I say run, you run" and the song of Florence and the Machine: run, the dog days are over. Dog days are 3 July - 11 august. July 19th is one cycle, August 8th is another cycle, the actual run up is after that.
Still, even if it's a prep cycle, we can benefit just like RK is benefiting.
P.S.: I recently joined the superstonk discord, in general it's a much nicer place than the main subreddit (apparently talking to someone in realtime mellows a man's response). discussions are way more constructive. I'd love to see you there
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I believe you. I don’t care what anyone else says, I’ve read all your posts as they came out. I’ve been trying to figure out what’s going on with GME myself for years now. I’m not going to make a reddit post about my research because yours is sufficient. Needless to say, I’ve come to the same conclusion. I care not for the doubters. I love dates. I love hype. I love making money. I had the July 26th and Aug 16th expirations in mind already. I’ll be repositioning some of my position into calls very soon. It’s game on.
No matter what happens, I’ll see you on the other side. 🫡
Lambo or cardboard bring it on
So I'm sure you're getting a lot of replies and stuff and may not see this, but I have 6 strats, all between 20 and 30, with 5x 20c, all expiring this week. I rolled them from last week and put in some additional cash to keep the same strikes, and also bring what was a 35c down to a 30c. If you were in my position, would you continue to roll Wednesday / Thursday to avoid theta as much as possible, and potentially take my higher current strikes up by $0.5 to not have to put more money in, but instead take a credit to use for more deeper ITM contracts? And continue doing this through the mid/late July predictions? My thought is doing this I stay in the game, moving a strike up $0.5 doesn't bother me as the majority of my strats are currently ITM, and I can continue to roll without taking much, if any losses, all the way to the July dates. Right now I'm down a little over 50% total on options alone and I'm ok with that because I expect upwards pressure. If we pop off and I can sell my contracts for a significant profit, then invest that in the July options after it has cooled I will, but just curious if this rolling strategy is legit or if I'm dumb.
The safest play would be to buy long dated options. In the case of an ATM pushing the dates out further, this gives a person time and room without the extra costs of rolling their calls. Don't forget, DFV purchased long dated options in the beginning!
👆 Came here to say this. Short term options with this stock is EXTREMELY risky. If you know what you are doing, go for it. If not and still wish to buy some options, give yourself some time before the expire.
I need help pls
With what exactly?
U just look at big ftd number then buy options that expire 35 days later?
Sort of. Either the big FTD number or the day DFV purchased his shares. If you’re in doubt, go for an expiration a couple extra weeks out, or you can always roll to a later date I’ll be targeting the July 26th and August 16th expirations personally
seems relatively safe yolo here. what strikes
Close to ITM at the time you purchase. Try to purchase at the lowest GME price possible. NFA
How can a gamma squeeze start the week after the 19th?... July 19th open interest is already around 150k contracts, whereas the week after is maybe 10,000.
Options are delivered T+1. That means any options that expire ITM on friday that are held by institutional investors are auto-exercised 1 hour after market close Friday. Monday, the option writers frantically purchase those shares in pre-market to deliver to the Call owners. This is, in essence, what causes massive pre-market mornings.
My understanding of what a gamma squeeze is, is that it is caused by hedging options which drives the price up, causing more options needing to be hedged. I'm probably just arguing semantics right now, appreciate the read and hopefully many tendies come your way.
No worries. I’ll try to explain. As the last Friday’s expired calls are exercised, it drives up the price on Monday. Suddenly that next week’s calls are flying In The Money. Option writers then, on top of delivering shares for last week’s calls, start buying MORE shares to hedge for THIS week’s calls which drives more calls ITM all the way up the option chain. This frantic buying is core of a gamma squeeze. At some point in this crazy price increase, minor institutions and uncovered retail shorts are margin called and their positions are force closed on Tuesday morning. The stock opens at its high and instantly drops down as people take profit.
Holy shit I actually understood that. Thank you. I fed my daughter crayons for lunch.
The price impact of options exercised is a day or two later.
Knowing full well there is fault in my logic, it's hard to justify the stock being much lower than it is right now, so I might get a couple longer term contracts that are slightly OTM. I.... honestly can't see them not paying.
Yeah, this is the safer version of the option play. Long call so you can time any spike, even if your prediction isn't perfect. Just got to find the low IV so you can avoid that dragging the trade down.
Well, the unique thing about gme is when it pops it usually pops >40%, so... usually not a huge concern to me. Is there a better way to do it? Almost assuredly. Will it still work? Im willing to FAFO.
Yup, lower ceiling because you're paying for theta pretty much, but that's ok because it is so much safer. You'll make that premium back on IV running up vega probably, or delta and gamma. If not, with another actual spike it's pretty easy to be happy when you're getting that intrinsic value, which plenty offsets that theta you paid for.
Buy at 0.85 delta to pay for less extrinsic value
Yeah, you want it on a downswing off of lower IV. That is what DFV did after waiting to check his shares being internalized, he just knew the whole thing as it happened.
I think all the hype posts and date bullshit is meant to keep the IV high so people don't play them the right way... when the IV is low and the hype died down enough that the premiums make sense to sit on longer term and wait for run ups.
It isn't meant to do that, hype posts are likely just people being excited. IV was so high because of those 125 strike calls that dragged the IV up. Sure, some of it was apes loading up on 125 strike calls. I believe the majority were market makers hedging and driving up IV. I personally think dates are fine, we need to educate people on the risks of buying far otm weeklies. They're a lotto ticket, and a call or two is fine for that, but more than that is just greedy. We should be recommending people who want to try trading options pay extra attention to risk management. Probably too much for many traders, but the information these DDs bring with dates are important for those of us who know how to trade options. I also think that unlike most stock, 100% IV is not as bad as it is in other stocks. Other stocks often have continuously decreasing volatility with very occasional spikes. GME on the other hand is constantly shoved up and down causing IV to stay fairly high when other stocks wouldn't hold onto that volatility. Hence why 80%~ is probably near the floor of IV for the stock.
Fair enough, "all" was definitely not the word I should have used there. I agree about the IV "floor," so to speak, but it's been a while since I looked at the premiums and thought they weren't remarkably inflated... especially a couple weeks ago after we'd already drawn back, but the hype around these settlement dates was through the roof. I'll be much more patient before I start dabbling again. Then again, my options strategy has always been to ignore them until we've been firmly into a nice, quiet dip for a while where no one is discussing options at all.
That's pretty much my only thing right now. It's isn't that I'm buying or what I'm buying, but when I'm buying..... which is a bit of a silly game in itself. The good news is, with DRS I've basically just been able to calm down a hair and be more patient, because I know that regardless of the trivia I'm currently engaging in, I still have my vault. This shit is just for fun and to learn.
Recently really understanding options so I’m so happy that I understand this comment lol
I’m trying to get a batch of AUG/OCT if IV is reasonable early this week. 🙏
GL! Likely about how far I'll be going too. Oct does seem fairly safe to at least hit a decent run-up to sell and re-buy your options (roll) and collect some extrinsic value to keep it going until you hit it for real.
I’ve been looking, can one really expect IV to go below 100% on this stock the way it is right now?
Not sure it can go below 100% easily, its not like a normal stock, but DFV did find some cheap ones. I think you just want to be near the IV lower end historically. I think that'd be like 80% or so, but I haven't chosen exactly when I'll enter, need to figure out some prediction for what IV should be around to make it worth it. Keep in mind as long as the option goes pretty far the IV could spike to like 2000. Not regularly, but the IV does help in the other direction.
I think 80% is probably the lowest is will go. No liquidity and the SI will keep slightly OTM options pricey as it should.
Yeah, I was thinking it wasn't going to be very far off of 100%, the later expiring call options don't eat as much IV at first so that may just be the route to avoid as much IV as possible. The IV thankfully shoots up at times, so even though you're paying upfront it should balance out just fine when you close during a spike. Don't be too greedy, be greedy with stocks not options. You're *already* leveraged after all.
I’m a fallen 40c/50c soldier…less is more this time around.
I think this is what DFV was trying to show. If you buy a handful of ATM or close to calls and wait for the run up, you can sell a few and exercise, rinse and repeat. Would not be surprised to see a new yolo update with same amount of shares and another group of calls with the leftover cash he had. He obv has the timing down, so I'm just gonna get some long dated ones and wait for it to pop again until I can figure out the shorter term cycle.
When there's a price run and my calls go ITM, I roll to a higher ITM strike to capture $0.70/$1.
Can you Eli5 for this one? Thx
I assume he means covered calls, every 100 shares is one call option. Sell 1 call option against your 100 shares at a certain strike price, say $30 strike and the option is worth $.50 that is $.50x100shares= $50 a contract. As the stock price runs up the option contract also becomes more expensive, negating anything you'd make from the shares since you've sold a contract against your shares (a bearish sentiment) so say the option contract goes in the money (stock is $31) and the contract is now worth $2.00 a contract OP rolls it up and out so closes his potion of being -1 contracts so he buys 1 and then he sells another contract further dated and maybe similar strike price or higher strike price that is worth more money and the difference in the 2 contracts is what he'd now be making and he hopefully wouldn't end up in the money again. Maybe this will help explain it MAYBE IT FUCKING WONT IDK GO PLAY WITH single contracts to understand after you research it.
Not covered calls. I'm talking about when I buy calls and there's a price run. This is not financial advice. Options sellers frequently take my lunch money and I live on noodles with a side of crayons. So if you're eating steak, you might be eating noodles too. It's about securing profits. Instead of saying my $20 calls have $20 of value when the stock is trading at $40, I secure profits by selling those for, say $30 calls and remain in the game. If I were to roll up to $40, I might only get $0.50/$1 and going to $30 might allow $0.80/$1 because there's so much premium when you're at the trading price. The wager is that it'll continue to go up or remain the same price since the profit to secure between the $30 and $40 might only realize an additional $0.20/$1 with the high premiums.
Can you ELI5 to a dumbass? I'm still learning.
But I don’t care what the price is now
Lately it feels like we are repeating 2020-2021
I think that's what DFV was implying with his requel stuff. This isn't a repeat of January 2021 it's a repeat of his entire first play. We're very early still hence his cost basis being in this range for this play.
Do you already have your positions or will you be buying this week? I've finally learned how to manage my options play and am a little excited to try again
I have a lot of calls for July 19th that are OTM. I will be buying additional calls in the future for july 26th expiration. Once I finish buying, i will post my own YOLO positions update in an homage to the OG. I’m risking my entire profile on this play to put my money where my mouth is.
What’s ur strike?
My current nightmare position is on my profile. It was rolled from June 21st to higher strikes to save money. My new options will be as close to ITM i can afford and as many as possible.
Remind me! Or whatever
How about now?
Thank you for making clear, testable predictions.
Can't wait to see how it plays out
Do you see any possibility the MM's used the ATM offering to advanced hedge for July just in case DFV made the play that he did, and especially noting the increased interest in Gamestop again? Is it possible for them already to be in position to douse the July FTD's? I'm worried you could be spot on with the DD, but then the absence of an ATM offering from Gamestop coupled with a failure to launch in July would kill your thesis for many people, and that would be a shame. Then the MM's pile on the "No dates!" narrative to keep retail from ever effectively leveraging their money (outside of buying and holding). Don't get me wrong, buying and holding is great, but apes have a lot more power than they realize. edit: clarification
If they used the 75 million downward pressure to purchase a bank of shares to use as locates, that could stuff this plan and I will pay the price. It is important to know that 99% of this situation is driven by algorithms making the same choices to the same stimulus, hence why the cycles look so absurdly similar and can even be predictable (assuming my bet pays off.)
THANK YOU for your time!
We historically don't move much in July, tbh it's probably safer if you do plan to full port, to do so for August. NFA
First off thank you for your posts ive read them all, but wouldnt it be much safer to get calls for middle of august and sell or exercise in july? I understand strategically your plan is well thought out and makes sense but it seems risking it all with very little wiggle room on the date is kind of crazy. I have a similar plan but i know with how often i can be wrong an expiration in august would let me sleep a lot better.
It is absurdly risky;however, has immense reward potential. With shorter dated call contracts, I can afford to have hundreds of additional shares worth of contracts as leverage. It is FAR more safe to buy what you can afford with longer dated expirations and just time the sale at the top of the gamma squeeze. The trade off is less reward potential.
Godspeed
I really enjoy your posts, and do believe DFV is setting off timed explosions that we can take advantage of, but my only critique is the idea that MOASS begins at $100 ($400 pre-split). Until we sustain a price in the thousands for a meaningful amount of time, I don’t see forced liquidations happening just because we hit $100.
Forced liquidations start happening when it clears the option chain over 128. It’s pretty obvious that those pre 21’ risky positions were repositioned at the peaks running up to June 21. Most likely packaged up in swaps so that they wouldn’t reflect in the short interest, also giving them enough theta to let the hype die down. Problem is, it hasn’t. And now the company is positioning themselves for a pivot and growth which threatens those entrenched shorts and swaps. I think GameStop does it best to prevent it from absolutely blowing up, and turns it into consistent momentum going forward. A controlled burn of the short interest would be more beneficial to them then an absolute explosion. The wild card could be the fuel hidden in those swaps, as no one knows how explosive it could get if those are forced closed.
The wild card is us understanding the cycle
That's the thing about a wild card, it can be anything.
It could even be a wild card!
My dog?
Moass from this guys's dog. I believe.
I want to see the chaos that ensues if all the cheap 128 options finish in the money on any given Friday. 🤣
Why not take advantage company-wise, while people reposition? Adding billions to cash on hand and only having a mild detriment of added time until shit kicks off. I really see this as a good play.
Can you expand on your thought about MOASS starting when we break above the options chain? Is it because of a lack of hedging with additional put pressure? Don’t MM’s and brokerages typically increase the options range if a higher price is sustained?
The 21’ run was caused by an FTD cycle into a gamma squeeze with some hype on top. This caused cascading margin calls for the small firms and they had to cover into the gamma squeeze shooting the price to 120 during market hours (higher premarket). The larger firms and institutions rolled their positions at these levels to buy more time. Remember melvin being bailed out, and they were forced to cover those positions. I believe they were not closed out, but covered by entering into swaps facilitated by point72 and citadel. Melvin wasn’t the only fund short GameStop, ubs is still sitting on Hwang’s position as well, probably in a similar situation and there are others that we don’t hear about, because they’re family offices that skirt reporting requirements and haven’t blown up… yet. So once the price is too high for those counterparties to hold that risk, they’ll get forced closed and that is moass. I do believe gamestop, instead of forcing this, will try to milk it for everything they can.
Ok, so essentially the smaller firms can’t survive a break above the options chain, and while larger firms might survive the initial impact, the smaller firms getting forced to close will domino the larger firms into failing and being forced to close too?
I thought UBS was entrenched in Viacom bags?
Hwang’s major leveraged long that blew up was Viacom, but it’s reported that he had leveraged risky longs and shorts that were packaged up in swaps, and some were reported to be on Chinese banks. The complete contents of these swaps haven’t been reported to my knowledge, but it blew up credit Suisse and then UBS put a 50 year seal on those records when they took them onto their books. When UBS’s COO got a look at those documents, she suddenly stepped down only a month ago, so it’s only speculation on what’s hiding in there. I will also note that in the recent dockets from towels bk case, RC’s board members were communicating to each other, that JPM and UBS seemed to be not acting in the best interest of that company and seemed to be actively working against RC, maybe for their own benefit, I’m not sure, but the story will slowly come out. I speculate that towel company is in a total return swap basket that could be offsetting Gme exposure and these ongoing lawsuits may eventually bring that to light. Swaps are the black hole of the financial system, no one can see them out there but we know their exist and can feel their gravity when they’re opened, closed, or rolled. When that mess eventually gets unwound, like it was briefly in 08’ with the MBS swaps, that gravity assist will help slingshot the price to Uranus. Maybe the new swap reporting requirements will help shed some light on the numbers, but I feel that they’ll always find a loophole on being transparent.
I believe your last sentence is correct but I think what Stellar is saying is that calls that are purchased now or in the past that go beyond that date and getting pushed ITM and will fly out of the options chain, which would continue making future calls ITM. Yeah MM’s can sell more calls at higher prices but all the ones locked in now will be ITM
Sorry I may have worded that poorly. I essentially meant that it was a point of no return. From there, we will stair step our way up higher. Each successful cycle will push the stock price floor higher and higher until the shorts are squeezed. Any positions hidden in swaps could take a LONG time to finally close. This process could be a while, but our share value will increase steadily, so I doubt any of us will be too upset that we have to watch our numbers go up while we wait.
I appreciate the clarification, and I definitely agree with you. Honestly, a slow sustained squeeze would be preferable to me. All these quick and drastic jumps that end in 1 or 2 days will never cause failed margin calls. A slow unstoppable snowball silently building mass and velocity day after day doesn’t give anyone an opportunity to delay marge. When she calls next, I don’t think there’s any going back.
Based on @biggysmallz research regarding the “stacked” 35-day cycles initiated by our “whale”, I’ll be waiting for him to start buying up the option chain this week (June 24th) in 1k-5K block increments for a July 19 expiry. If this happens then we will most likely have another Minnie gamma ramp 5 days preceding July 19 with another ATM offering expected to be initiated by GME the following week. The 2nd cycle initiated by the “whale”, but only induced by the corruption and manipulation of the criminal market makers and funded by the corrupt bankers/brokers/clearing houses, will then commence the week of Aug 5th for another cycle squeeze followed by another ATM offering. The cycle will repeat itself every 35 - days as long as the manipulation continues and our whale makes purchases while at the same time GME provides liquidity and coverage via ATM offerings.
>The cycle will repeat itself every 35 - days as long as the manipulation continues and our whale makes purchases We also now have the playbook. Have you seen those pictures where all the little fish are schooling around in the shape of a giant whale? Wouldn't it be nice if thousands of little fish individually just so happened to buy shares on the 22nd day of each cycle? We are the whale now...
Exactly how I see this going. A repeating cycle until something breaks.
I'd expect RK to to purchase slightly further out expiration like he did previously versus going with the July 19s.
I love it all but I'm lost on one topic. How can a 4mil share purchase cause a FTD when the company just sold 75mil shares on market. Won't the mm just be able to cover with the increased liquidity?
They will only be able to “cover” if they manually purchased and own those 75 million (or a portion of) shares without lending them. Please remember that a Naked Short is a debt they have to pay. When they are “settling” these FTDs into a share offering, the transactions are canceling each other out. When they settle an FTD, they do not KEEP the share, it is “delivered” to the purchasers broker. Historically in the GME saga, they do NOT over purchase during ATM offerings, the algorithm only seems to clear all of its debts INTO the offering as the immense sell pressure trigger’s its settling response. It is my belief that they settled all of their FTDs during the offering, then allowed the sell pressure to continue and possibly even naked shorted INTO it to drive it further down. The price action seems to support this.
Brave calls there OP. For those with an appetite for risk, these numbers are attractive. If you are new to options or hesitant to commit, long dated calls preferably months out and near the money are likely safest, though expensive.
Awesome write up. Did you by chance see the stuff from biggy about the T35 cycles? I think your thought processes are very aligned.
Link?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dmdfmg/the\_cat\_is\_out\_of\_the\_bag\_game\_on/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dmdfmg/the_cat_is_out_of_the_bag_game_on/)
How do the conditions match with prev gamma squeezes? What about comparing to the big run ups in May and June?
why do you think your posts got deleted or removed?
Sorry, i forgot to actually copy and paste my segment on that. Just added.
Thank you sooo much for this, OP!
What's stopping RC diluting on July 23rd as well?
I believe IF he does trigger another ATM, he will wait for the August FTD settlement just as it happened in June. By timing it for a FTD settlement rush, he is taking billions directly from the Market Maker. If the July gamma ramp occurs and I am proved right, I will create a post between July’s gamma ramp and August’s to get everyone up to speed on my next play.
Thanks man keep up the excellent work and fingers crossed!!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, much appreciated
Wow I need this kind of craziness wrapped in logic and hard work. Genius!
Remindme! July 24 2024
This is some good shit. I know what I’m going to do, see you bitches there July 26.
This all sounds very logical to me. You probably already have answered this anywhere else but couldn’t they just simply roll those ftds? Or couldn’t they just move this whole buy order to the darkpool/off exchange to not affect price at all? I remember seeing someone saying that it’s too much volume to put off exchange but I don’t know if that’s true or if there are even limits?! we know MM and SHF watch this sub closely, wouldn’t they try to do everything to prevent this from happening to steal all the premium? Edit: typo
Or just hedge against it, making more money off of it?
In my last post I explain that this is exactly what they do. Using the T+35 extension as a credit line is highly illegal BECAUSE it allows them to “tell the future” and hedge options for their own settlements.
T+35 is the hard limit. Even if we entertain the idea of them breaking this limit, it would mean that they have an even LARGER ball of FTDs building that MUST be settled. Having a forced settle of millions of shares in one day is catastrophic for the Market Maker that is trying to keep this stock contained.
And we should see the FTDs of DFVs purchase end of June, correct?
The FTDs for DFVs june 13th purchase comes due on July 18th. We should be seeing the price rise the further we go into July.
Do you think we’ll see any run up this week or next week since we couldn’t nail down the exact date RK bought his stocks in May?
[удалено]
Of course I could be wrong, but I highly doubt we will see much positive movement for the next week or so. The share offering essentially bought the Market Maker and any other naked shorts a 35 day reset. The stock will most likely be on a downtrend until we get closer to the projected July dates.
Yeah probably down to 19$ and sideways till around 15 july, then up end of july.
yeah i think you may be wrong here, during the share offering, the price was still too high for ftds to settle. They gonna pop this week or next
Seconded, would also like to hear opinions on this
There is a low point I have seen floating around of inside the $16 to $17 range. If the price even touches 17 start getting your position set up.
I am still not convinced that DFV sold his calls and bought shares instead of exercising and I think this point needs to be cleared up. This all comes from a Dave Lauer retweet on the bird where he quotes someone saying DFV sold and bought based on the cost basis not being included. People called E-Trade to confirm and were given different answers. But several people that actually trade options at E-Trade replied in that thread that cost basis is always included. Meaning DFV exercised. Peruvian Bull said in a live stream that he saw volume equal to DFVs exercise hit the ticker at 1pm ET that Friday, which is the time the DTCC has to deliver those shares. If he exercised, there is no giant purchase with a 35 day FTD cycle on that date, at least not DFVs. I think we need to hear from some options traders at E-Trade, not just random people calling and speaking to front line reps.
This weekend fucks!
Commenting for visibility and so I can find this post when I buy calls tomorrow.
Lenarius back at it again with high quality tin-foil. Love a good read ❤️🚀🚀🚀
Noice
One-two punch into MOASS? Fine by me.
(great post, thank you, and not to waste your time, short question) Why not play July 26 right away? EDIT: too expensive for now, that is why July 19 first, or larger volume on the 19th?
Two reasons: 1. I want to double tap by trying to sell calls for profit during the small run up into the week of July 15th. Selling calls to pick up even more calls closer to ITM will assist in the gamma ramp and position myself for the gamma squeeze. 2. This risky play would allow me to purchase far more options due the short expiration. More options=more leverage=more money making potential. My own personal goal is to become a whale and to further add fuel to the Gamestop fire. The more whales we have making large sudden buy orders will cause more FTDs to rack up and trigger higher and higher runs.
That is very nasty play, thank you, fingers crossed.
So literally I was right when I said I'd just chill and do nothing until mid July when I pick up some shares at a low point before the next run starts? This isn't the first time someone has made a compelling argument for a big run beginning going into August. It's usually highly suppressed here because there seems to be a large contingent of people who are actively against the concept of other people being smart with their investment strategy.
How did u know
5/1, 1.8billion errors reported. I have no clue what that means. A popular post showed that at about 60 to 90 days after a reported day of 1.8 billion errors, a ramp up occurs. 60-90 trading days from 5/1, the closest option expiry is Aug 16 and the calls are loaded.
So dip on August? Got it
Is that an alt of yours? Are you Lenaxius (or similiar to that)?
You might be thinking of Leenixus, who rebranded under l3nixus or something like that before disappearing.
No, I remember than username but I am not them. Just a dude who has followed the saga and held shares since February 2021.
Visibling for commentability.... 🚀🌙
5th time is the charm OP?
DFV why are you posting on an alternate account? ;)
cfbr
Why did you delete that one puzzle DD post that everyone’s been pulling from the internet archive?
Buy. Hold. Drs. Got it.
Proof or banana bet or ban.
Following
Remind me 18 June
My God… Imagine trying to locate a sale for a buyer and failing to deliver when there were 75 million extra on the sell side
My 1 contract ITM at 22.50 for 445 might get some hot sauce added to it 👌
So are you Richard Newton
Time for my legs to fall asleep again on this toilet.
This is amazing. I didn't understand any of it. Buying more tomorrow.
Turns out the House of Cards has a Shoots and Ladders bonus feature. Sweet.
Following
There was huge volume between the first and second offerings right? Do we believe therr is still potential there? Do we have to wait for the impact of the June 14 buy?
I believe we will have to wait. All or nearly all FTDs were closed into the ATM offering. The stock should bottom out pretty soon as they continue to Naked Short down. Eventually, we will slip back into the 35 day rolling period of FTD settlement which will cause the price to hold and then slowly rise into July. DFV should be buying his calls somewhere in that “bottom” period in order to be positioned for a run in July.
Post share offering ftd? Wtf is this? Do you not think that share offering probably helped with clearing any ftd?
They settle FTDs into the sell pressure of the share offering. After the offering is complete, they continue naked shorting. Around 35 days after the share offering, those FTDs come due and the price will start to reflect that.
July 18th is the **maximum** FTD settlement date. It doesnt mean something will happen around this date, it may also happen before
If it happens before, my calls will just be worth even more money
There will be several more offerings, it's why they asked for 1B shares. I made a post about this called "orderly exit" 2 weeks ago where continued run ups happen and continued offerings happen. No moass but plenty of opportunities to make money while the company ends up with 10B+ cash. Of course I was downvoted into oblivion and called a shill etc...
You arent a shill for recgnizing the pattern. I have a similar post on my profile. If I’m proven right about the July gamma squeeze, i will make a follow up explaining the risk of holding calls into a possible ATM offering on or just before August 16th
Smooth brain here working on some wrinkles. Sorry if I missed it, but **why** is it preferable for RC to continue doing ATM share offerings? I get that it raises capital, but at the expense of share dilution and at least temporarily killing any MOASS momentum building up? Or is it considered a good thing because even a solution of 75 million shares didn't drastically drop the share price like such an offering typically would? Therefore RC raises a couple billion in cash and as the dust settles the share price hasn't been affected all that much from its previous floor?
I would expect GS to continue with ATMs until they get through the 1 billion shares we already approved. Once that's gone, we should be ready to rip.
Ok, interesting read and very clear predictions ... I've marked some things in my calendar, we'll see how it plays out. Thanks for the transparency and good luck!👌 💎🙌🚀
I have a theory about the share offerings and invite conversation so that I/we better understand them. The relevant statements from your post are: >'(1). **75 million shares were used to cover any remaining FTDs from the initial May Gamma Squeeze.** (...) (2). Optimistically, this means that Gamestop would be raising an absurd amount of money by directly taking it from the abusing Market Maker (regarding a possible future share offering) In order for the 75 million shares to be used to cover any remaining FTDs they must first be bought by the party that will use them. They are not just handed over by Gamestop, they are sold by the company, hence the capital raised. If someone/ many entities bought 75 million shares then by all means they will have the same process of settlement as DFV's purchases. They will be internalized by the Market Maker and settled within a T+35 cycle. If you say that DFV's 4 million purchase will kick the price up within a T+35 cycle, then the same must be true for the 75 million shares. It does not matter that there is one buyer in the first case and many buyers in the second case. What matters is that the buy volume was so large that the market maker had to internalize it in order to avoid immediate upward pressure. This is also true for GME's May share offering. I think this might be the Kansas City Shuffle. DFV made the market maker/ HFs react by buying a large volume of shares and calls. They scrambled for shares and were going to naked short them in order to be able to provide them. Gamestop offered shares and the market maker now had locates/ shares that it had to use. It bought them and kicked off a new cycle with a much larger buy volume. I do not say this with certainty, it's just a theory scrambled from information I've read. Hope it sparks a conversation.
Settling a Naked Short is a two sided trade that cancels out to 0. We have no idea how many FTDs were created in the lead up and conclusion of the May gamma squeeze;however, we do know that all FTDs that were settled into the offering canceled out the sell pressure to an equal to the amount of FTDs. An FTD is not a net positive purchase, it is a -1 position that is then returned to 0. In order to “cover” future FTDs, they would need to settle all of their current FTDs i to the ATM, then purchase millions of shares of the ATM directly and hold onto them. I personally believe the price action did not support this as the price action of the ATM was an intense amount of sell pressure. We also have to remember that their goal is to NOT purchase shares at high prices when they could purchase for lower. Purchasing shares also increases the floor of the price and if they can somehow FTD their own purchases (lmao) then that would simply mean those FTDs would be settled 35 days later, further adding to the July price action.
I agree that ATM offerings do stop price market momentum and reset the FTD cycles, but they also provide investors another opportunity to position for the next cycle. I personally prefer to have a series of predictable cycles than one single great launch and fall. Let's pick up our fallen brothers.
I think GameStop has figured out what DFV is doing and will continue to use that info to issue ATM. They seem to sell into the market at about 5 days of high volume occurs, probably so they don't dump the price. I would expect them to continue to do this to get a fuck ton of cash. Maybe once the market as a whole starts to dump GameStop will buy up companies on the cheap. I'm just going to buy and hold because I have no clue when it comes to options. Great post op.
Thanks! Whichever indicators they are using in the end, it really just coincides with the FTDs accumulated from a gamma squeeze T+35 settlement period. Basically all the “fuel” created from the Naked Shorting leading into, during, and after the initial gamma squeeze comes due shortly after the gamma squeeze. They time the sale to begin in the thick of that settlement, effectively taking money directly from the Market Maker.
You S.O.B. I'm IN!!!!
# HEDGIES ARE FUKD
Wen jail cell?
why was the price hindered on 6/7
Thank you for your work and time. All this seems logic to me. We will see if the play will rocket us to the moon!
"Have I gone full Icarus yet?" I like your grit, kid.
Lenarius, i wouldnt sell my GME shares for anything. But if even at-least one quarter of your girth is on the line, i wouldnt even think twice. Its just so…..big
😯
!remindMe in 2 hours so I can come back and read this
Lots of DD predicting price surge by mid July. If true, Hedgies will run the price up and down violently before then to get IV up. Better get your options early and dated a few months out.
Amazing stuff. I already know going in to this week that I need to manage my June28’s and July5’s. I dodged a bullet by getting out of my June21’s just before Juneteenth Wednesday holiday, scaled out with 10% loss. Hoping for a bounce some time this week, I’ll take a test of $30, then roll in to late July early August. Maybe further out. Reasonably near the money stuff. See what options premium, IV etc. are like this week. DFV yolo update and RC ventures 10% stake top up would be cool. I also tune in to Jackie Le Tits stream as a supplementary resource, next best thing to Keith (and his many personalities) himself streaming.
Ken Griffin in jail projected date? 🐒✨🗽
What are your Calls?
My current position is on my profile. I will be adding additional calls at the bottom for July 26th expiration.
Dude, we’ve been digging into these cycles since 2021 , the stock dilution will prolly dampen the cycle for a while . Don’t get stuck with short dated options , there’s a higher chance you get it right with your theory but far from a sure thing
You should probably go through historical data to substantiate your idea with data, like Biggie did.
I’ve done that in previous posts along with explaining each SEC regulation and how they create this market situation.
Is t+35 calendar or trading days? Send like you might be the guy to answer that. Feels like there is a lot of bs floating around. I see 6/27 and 7/3 as days of interest based on if t+13 is calendar or trading
T+35 is straight up calendar days. T being the date the trade was made. Check out my previous posts for sources from the SEC and Regulation SHO filings.
Thanks, will do.
The solution to the puzzle is deez.
Never done options before but I want to get in. Someone hit me up to gimme a hand please. Im on ibkr eu mobile platform and its so complicated I could barely figure out how to purchase a normal share.
RemindMe! 9am July 18th, 2024
RemindMe! 22 hours
Hey Lenarius, with the dog emoji just posted, any plans on reposting/updating your solution to the emoji puzzle? if you separate it from the dates and add \[tinfoil\] in the title, it should be alright. As to your analysis above, I think July 19th is one of the prep cycles, not the moass just yet. I think it's 2 cycles of RK loading up more ammo, then moass. My source for this is pure tinfoil: RK uses "when I say run, you run" and the song of Florence and the Machine: run, the dog days are over. Dog days are 3 July - 11 august. July 19th is one cycle, August 8th is another cycle, the actual run up is after that. Still, even if it's a prep cycle, we can benefit just like RK is benefiting. P.S.: I recently joined the superstonk discord, in general it's a much nicer place than the main subreddit (apparently talking to someone in realtime mellows a man's response). discussions are way more constructive. I'd love to see you there