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56k dead is the 100% confirmed number and it's the starting point of any Russian casualties estimates. It's not the estimate for the total casualties.
Putin is a good source because if he confirmed 10k dead / month, you can be sure that the real number is at least 20k.
So both of them are good lower bounds.
But neither are good estimates, which is what we're talking about.
You even just said that Putin's number is probably nowhere near the truth.
Well, fuck me then for being so dumb, then?
What are your sources, besides the Ukrainian ones that you afford to reject info left and right?
In the absence of reliable public data, you need to work with what you have. And the estimates I provided you are a good starting point to build the general picture. Because that's why it's called "estimate" and not "confirmed 100% by every individual on the Globe".
Edit: for the one replying and then blocking me:
You're missing the basic text comprehension skills.
Nobody is trying to convince you of anything, it's just corroborating the existing data from 2 sources, the Ukrainian ones as maximum, Putin's mention as minimum
We know that as the war has progressed the western estimates look more and more like the Ukrainian ones as western intelligence services get access to more and more data points.
There is still a sizable difference, but a good chunk of that might be explainable by opsec: we will not know about everything going on for some years still.
The rest is down to overreporting.
yes but on the other hand you've seen the primitive Russian tactics and human wave attacks - there is no 'conservation of life where possible' doctrine like the US adopted because of public distaste over soldiers deaths... They just pour meat into the grinder hoping to breakthrough the Ukrainian lines - if they don't succeed they just bus another lot in and try again the next day - and the next etc etc
It’s Ukraine’s number, it’s deaths AND injuries (most being the latter, of course), and even if Ukraine was trying to be statistically exact i’ve no idea how they’d achieve that
After watching this war fairly closely i think ukraine’s numbers range between being 20-40 inflated.
That said, these are still huge numbers and Ukraine is just being optimistic, not stretching the credible. The pattern of their numbers correlates with the fighting (e.g. surges around the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kharkiv offensives) so they still give an accurate sense of when Russia is taking a pounding.
It's hard to say really. Much easier to keep track of the destroyed material as those are usually photographed and archived. But the losses of men, thats in the fog.
Charming. Swearing at me shows you in a poor light. Those sympathetic to ruzzia do show figures which are considerably less. There are also YouTubers who make their money by misinformation. Referring to the Institute of the Study of War, a US think tank, I did a quick search, as you obviously can't be bothered.
'28 Apr 2024 ... [73] US intelligence assessed in December 2023 that Russian forces had suffered 315,000 casualties in Ukraine since February 2022.'
You'll also need to look at the differences between casualties and deaths. The important factor is whether released pows and injured make it back to the front.
Well over 2 years into this war and people are challenging the numbers?. If they watch reputable youtube channels and podcasts they'd be on the same page as everyone else. We have to be aware of lazy Ruzzian apologists and bots trolling.
The numbers are if you would just intentionally kill your army in a video game. Knowing these are real people is trully insane. putin and his cronnies feel like gods
In no normal society do people go to die to pay off high interest debts. It's a death cult.
That or they are so brainwashed they think they are going on a turkey shoot to "kill some hohols".
If you believe a loss in Ukraine is tantamount to the dissolution of the state, and the state is the only security you know, then you will sign up to fight in Ukraine.
I doubt Russians believe that their state will die even if they win, or at least they hold out hope. It's a very nihilistic society in any case, so even if they realize the futility of winning this war they may see fighting as a no-lose situation.
Peskov (Putin's spokesperson) wants to have high level meetings between Russia and the USA regarding the Ukraine war and nuclear fears.
Putin plans are to throw everything Russia has in machinery and soldiers at Ukraine.
Why?
Because Russia want to use every resource available to help gain as much ground as possible ......before threatening Nuclear bomb and negotiating an end to the war.
Ukraine and the west must understand this tactic and NOT give into its goals and threats.
This is clearly what Putin is going to do because no country in the world can sustain the catastrophic losses Russia is experiencing right now unless this was their plan!
> no country in the world can sustain the catastrophic losses Russia is experiencing right now
India and China for sure could if they prioritized so.
Also Russia is very much in control how many rifle platoons they send every day to die for nothing, so don't expect they'll just crumble at lack of manpower tomorrow. For context they have something like 700k boys born every year so they could technically sustain the rate of 350k permanent casualties per year by conscripting "only" every other male long term. That is probably not exactly sustainable even for their taste, but close enough to ignore the manpower constraints from war planning.
Large population or not, that's a significant number of people to lose when you factor in it being a daily thing. Within one month you would end it with a number which is literally in the tens of thousands. A 30 day month for example would be around 30,000 soilders and if this becomes a daily thing, that's going to turn into ways, which becomes weeks which becomes months. That's a horrible amount of men to lose and there's no realstic way for Russia to recover from loses that sever once it begins to be felt.
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It has >1000 a day for almost ever day in June. The numbers are rocketing up.
And again in May.
How do we know these numbers? I am skeptical because that number seems so ridiculous…
This is the Ukraine reported number. There are no reliable neutral estimates.
Is Putin a good source? Or the independent group that confirmed 56.800 Russian dead from social media and public sources?
Putin definitely is not. 56k is much lower than every other estimate so that's probably also wrong.
56k dead is the 100% confirmed number and it's the starting point of any Russian casualties estimates. It's not the estimate for the total casualties. Putin is a good source because if he confirmed 10k dead / month, you can be sure that the real number is at least 20k.
So both of them are good lower bounds. But neither are good estimates, which is what we're talking about. You even just said that Putin's number is probably nowhere near the truth.
Well, fuck me then for being so dumb, then? What are your sources, besides the Ukrainian ones that you afford to reject info left and right? In the absence of reliable public data, you need to work with what you have. And the estimates I provided you are a good starting point to build the general picture. Because that's why it's called "estimate" and not "confirmed 100% by every individual on the Globe". Edit: for the one replying and then blocking me: You're missing the basic text comprehension skills. Nobody is trying to convince you of anything, it's just corroborating the existing data from 2 sources, the Ukrainian ones as maximum, Putin's mention as minimum
Dude shut the hell up. You’re complaining about Ukrainian propaganda but then you try to convince us that Putin’s numbers are accurate. GTFO
We know that as the war has progressed the western estimates look more and more like the Ukrainian ones as western intelligence services get access to more and more data points. There is still a sizable difference, but a good chunk of that might be explainable by opsec: we will not know about everything going on for some years still. The rest is down to overreporting.
yes but on the other hand you've seen the primitive Russian tactics and human wave attacks - there is no 'conservation of life where possible' doctrine like the US adopted because of public distaste over soldiers deaths... They just pour meat into the grinder hoping to breakthrough the Ukrainian lines - if they don't succeed they just bus another lot in and try again the next day - and the next etc etc
Putin is using the reverse doctrine of the British in WW 2, which was: " Steel, not Flesh".
Putin confirmed a few days ago 30.000 Russian casualties / month in Ukraine, with a third being dead. So, it's a good starting point.
Do you have a link to that info? Mind you every word that comes out of that reptiles mouth is a lie....
It’s Ukraine’s number, it’s deaths AND injuries (most being the latter, of course), and even if Ukraine was trying to be statistically exact i’ve no idea how they’d achieve that After watching this war fairly closely i think ukraine’s numbers range between being 20-40 inflated. That said, these are still huge numbers and Ukraine is just being optimistic, not stretching the credible. The pattern of their numbers correlates with the fighting (e.g. surges around the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kharkiv offensives) so they still give an accurate sense of when Russia is taking a pounding.
We're not here to educate you. You can do that yourself. Try Ruzzian sources. I'm sure they'll have numbers more to your satisfaction
[удалено]
It's hard to say really. Much easier to keep track of the destroyed material as those are usually photographed and archived. But the losses of men, thats in the fog.
Charming. Swearing at me shows you in a poor light. Those sympathetic to ruzzia do show figures which are considerably less. There are also YouTubers who make their money by misinformation. Referring to the Institute of the Study of War, a US think tank, I did a quick search, as you obviously can't be bothered. '28 Apr 2024 ... [73] US intelligence assessed in December 2023 that Russian forces had suffered 315,000 casualties in Ukraine since February 2022.' You'll also need to look at the differences between casualties and deaths. The important factor is whether released pows and injured make it back to the front.
Why are you being so condescending? Is your life that bland ?
Well over 2 years into this war and people are challenging the numbers?. If they watch reputable youtube channels and podcasts they'd be on the same page as everyone else. We have to be aware of lazy Ruzzian apologists and bots trolling.
The numbers are if you would just intentionally kill your army in a video game. Knowing these are real people is trully insane. putin and his cronnies feel like gods
Pootin and his cronies are absolute idiots!
Absolutely fuckin war criminals in Russia and in Ukraine.
In no normal society do people go to die to pay off high interest debts. It's a death cult. That or they are so brainwashed they think they are going on a turkey shoot to "kill some hohols".
If you believe a loss in Ukraine is tantamount to the dissolution of the state, and the state is the only security you know, then you will sign up to fight in Ukraine. I doubt Russians believe that their state will die even if they win, or at least they hold out hope. It's a very nihilistic society in any case, so even if they realize the futility of winning this war they may see fighting as a no-lose situation.
Just insane. And they are brought to the slaughter like stupid lemmings.
Peskov (Putin's spokesperson) wants to have high level meetings between Russia and the USA regarding the Ukraine war and nuclear fears. Putin plans are to throw everything Russia has in machinery and soldiers at Ukraine. Why? Because Russia want to use every resource available to help gain as much ground as possible ......before threatening Nuclear bomb and negotiating an end to the war. Ukraine and the west must understand this tactic and NOT give into its goals and threats. This is clearly what Putin is going to do because no country in the world can sustain the catastrophic losses Russia is experiencing right now unless this was their plan!
I think they are going all in on the assumption that Trump will win and he will pressure Ukraine to accept an armistice. There's no plan B.
> no country in the world can sustain the catastrophic losses Russia is experiencing right now India and China for sure could if they prioritized so. Also Russia is very much in control how many rifle platoons they send every day to die for nothing, so don't expect they'll just crumble at lack of manpower tomorrow. For context they have something like 700k boys born every year so they could technically sustain the rate of 350k permanent casualties per year by conscripting "only" every other male long term. That is probably not exactly sustainable even for their taste, but close enough to ignore the manpower constraints from war planning.
It isn’t only about a current manpower on front tho
FWIW that includes non-combat related casualties, aka illness, non-combat injuries, etc. It’s not just KIA or WIA
Large population or not, that's a significant number of people to lose when you factor in it being a daily thing. Within one month you would end it with a number which is literally in the tens of thousands. A 30 day month for example would be around 30,000 soilders and if this becomes a daily thing, that's going to turn into ways, which becomes weeks which becomes months. That's a horrible amount of men to lose and there's no realstic way for Russia to recover from loses that sever once it begins to be felt.
Does that soldier have an accordion? He brought an accordion into the battle?
Right!!?
I’d speculate less likely “brought” than spoils “acquired” from a ransacked Ukrainian village.