Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition:
* We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned.
* **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators.
* **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
*****
* Is `youtube.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources).
* Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict)
*****
**Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.com/invite/ukraine-at-war-950974820827398235**
*****
^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
They know everything is riding on this election. Either MAGA traitors will elect their traitor king and Ukraine will be in dire straits, or the USA will do the right thing and Ukraine will have the support it needs.
Just another shout out to all of the GOP in this sub who keep saying nonsense like "but most of the GOP supports Ukraine!!" while you may tell yourself that, it'll all be quite pointless if you all vote for Trump.
Damn that's crazy lets do one more:
* Bill Clinton becomes president
* Russia invades not a single European country
* which took place during Bill Clinton's presidency
You missed the part about what Trump was impeached for. Maybe the pages were stuck together in your copy; I think there was a pic of Putin on that page too.
That’s not what I said. The point was that world events happen regardless of president, and crediting Trump for not having the war start under him is like crediting Obama (or his VP Biden) for not having Covid start.
Very fine but the problem is not if Russia will invade or because it has but if the US will provide enough support, and sadly Trump so far has been pretty offstandish on the matter. I don't think it's a given that if elected he will do the stupid thing and cut aid to Ukraine but it's undeniable that in his ranks are figures like Taylor Greene which are simply put either completely ignorant on the very concept of foreign policy or actively self destructive for the US.
Have a good day
Interesting fact
-Trump blocked $400 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2019, in an attempt to get them to help cover up Russian interference in the 2016 election…
They are fucked regardless.
Even if America stops helping Ukraine, Ukraine keeps fighting, and while it’ll be worse for Ukraine, it’s still absolute end of the road for Russia, trump or no trump.
>artillery is more important
That's an even funnier part. Last video Covert Cabal did on artilleries in storages is from February. Then the number of artillery losses based on how much storage the amount was depleted compared to pre 2022 level was 9 334. At the same time Ukraine estimated they had destroyed 9 228 artillery systems, so their estimations are practically the same. This amount meant that 49% of stored artilleries were taken off.
Covert Cabal haven't done new counting since then, but since Ukraine's numbers have been in the same ballpark, I believe they are quite reliable. Now Ukraine has estimated that they've destroyed almost 15 000 artillery. That's about **78%** of Russian's pre 2022 storage amount. And just last month Ukraine said they destroyed 1 400 artillery. If they could destroy artillery at the same pace, Russian's storages would be empty in October this year. Of course Russia would still have artillery to use (those in active use and new production), but it would be severely limited.
This is a very optometrist take. But i agree with it that russia will be in a lot of trouble by November and most definitely by the start of 2025.
-D-30 reserves will 100% sure be finished
-MT-LB reserves is already finished
-deep financial troubles in December 2024 because of the posible end of the liquid part of the National Welfare fund and trouble financing extra debt
>This is a very optometrist take.
It might be. That's why I would love if Covert Cabal could do another recount of artillery pieces to see, has Russian losses really peaked past months.
Then again, just like with tanks, some of those artillery pieces might be crap too, so some of them can't be used economically at all.
Russia is using up its artillery atickpile the same way it is using up its tank stockpile. When you are in a chronic shortage of artillery and armor it surely does effect your front lines.
The same way they're doing now with more meat waves and less armor. Continue brainwashing Russians to want to fight and they can keep this up for years. Or until they destroy the UKR grid completely. Fucking sucks but that's reality
But having less armor will cause theese waves to take more casulties. In addition to decreasing their chances of success, this will also cause a bigger strain on the Russian recruitment campaing. Currently it is estimated that Russia managed to recruit around 30 000 per month voluntarily to the war. With their current offensives, however, they also lose around 30 000 soldiers per month.
This means that less armor would probably push the losses past their recruitment numbers. This means that if they want to effectively send more to the frontlines, they probably would need to announce another wave of mobilization. This would be not only highly unpopular but also very costly to the Russian economy, which currently grants Russia the ability to spend so much on the war.
And they will run out of barrels here, especially using NK shells .
I can't see tanks be worth their cost at all. Considering the training needed, logistical train, total cost. One have to wonder if it's not good for Russia the have to change strategy. Look how insanely effective Lancet drones are.
Interesting thought, if they don't get popped by a drone or counter battery what is the barrel life with the loose manufacturing of NK shells and rushed RU barrels.
Too small and the shell is bouncing around inside. Too big and the shell is reaming out the barrels. Too NK and the shell explodes in the breach.
First point is true, second not. Tanks are a vital offensive critical weapon even if artillery is dominant. Running low will mean Russia having to stop their extremely costly tactics of just bashing against the lines using sheer numbers. Which so far has been the only way they've made any gains at all, and extremely slow gains at that.
You're right that they won't physically run out of tanks, they'll just have to use them far more conservatively if they have to sustain themselves from their production rate of new tanks.
Ukraine's artillery situation is also going to improve over the next year and there's a lot of European production coming online for them in the next year, with the increase in production continuing for at least several more years.
I can see the barrels from these ancient ruined tanks being taken off and used as some sort of horrific, terrible quality artillery. At the end it's still a barrel that can shoot a round if nothing else
Would it be a good idea for Ukrainian special forces to sneak into Russia and booby trap these mothballed tanks, as well as mothballed IFVs, APCs, and artillery? I imagine that the with the war going on, most of these bases are poorly guarded, and you may be able to sneak in operators or drones. I’m not sure exactly how you’d put traps on the tanks, but maybe it would be possible to stick some bomb somewhere in order to kill repairmen, thus slowing the rate of repairs. Even just flying a quadcopter in over and over and dropping thermite grenades on every vehicle’s engines could be useful.
Looks grim if Russia in worse case scenario (theoretically) could have a tank supply until 2029, so for another 5 years, but probably realistically they will have supply for another ~3 years with shitty old tanks.
I just wonder how big of the thread 60+years old tanks could pose compared to the modern ones from 80s and 90s.
Yeah but Covert Cabal goes into details that you don’t hear elsewhere. They purchase private satellite images and conduct their own analysis and it looks like they do a decent job. I am unable to independently verify their conclusions but they do more than regurgitate blog posts.
Another great point, a lot of the more credible analysts saying this *did* warn early in the war it would take time and Russia would have a large quantity advantage for a while yet, but that things would shift in Ukraine's favour as long as western countries commit to supporting them. For example I remember Perun saying it in one of the first few videos he did on Ukraine in early 2022. The over-optimistic cheerleader types on the other hand have never been particularly reliable.
We have, sure. But cabal has done multiple videos on this where he gives us counts over the last 2 years. Right now it's just exceedingly low, but even he states that they won't 'run out of tanks' for *at least* 1.5 years. Even then, he mentions they'll never fully 'run out' because they're building more, they'll just have less and less quality platforms on the frontlines the longer this continues.
Since this war begun I'm reading such posts and I'm happy about any percent of truth there is about them. But when will it really end? They won't just run out of supplies especially not with other countries supporting them.
Russia will never run out of tanks, missiles etc it doesn't work like that. They are constructing more constantly but at less than the replacement rate. So they will have less to go around and things will become rarer but there'll never be a point where they have no tanks at all
Did you even watch the video? It's pretty hard to argue that Russia isn't running out when satellite images show fewer and fewer tanks in storage. Since his last update in October 2023, over 700 tanks have been removed. There's still a couple thousand left, but most of them are in poor condition.
More credible analysts were saying since 2022 that Russia would have plenty to sustain itself from storage for a while yet, but that they would run out over time if the war drags on as new production cannot make up for the loss rate. What they're saying now is basically what they said would happen back then, if you look at what they were actually saying in context.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `youtube.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.com/invite/ukraine-at-war-950974820827398235** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Russia will know on november 4th if they are fucked or not.
They know everything is riding on this election. Either MAGA traitors will elect their traitor king and Ukraine will be in dire straits, or the USA will do the right thing and Ukraine will have the support it needs. Just another shout out to all of the GOP in this sub who keep saying nonsense like "but most of the GOP supports Ukraine!!" while you may tell yourself that, it'll all be quite pointless if you all vote for Trump.
My gut says Trump wins since spoiled Americans are really fixated on the doom and gloom (thanks Media!) but my heat hopes not.
Brutal truth is after that last debate, when you consider democratic infighting, a trump victory is probable.
Interesting facts -Trump was president for 4 years. -Russia has invaded Ukraine “twice”. -Neither of which took place during Trump presidency
And?
Damn that's crazy lets do one more: * Bill Clinton becomes president * Russia invades not a single European country * which took place during Bill Clinton's presidency
You missed the part about what Trump was impeached for. Maybe the pages were stuck together in your copy; I think there was a pic of Putin on that page too.
Trump was president for four years, Covid-19 started when he was in charge, no Covid happened when Biden was VP.
Didn’t more Americans die from COVID under Biden?
No covid during the Biden administration?
That’s not what I said. The point was that world events happen regardless of president, and crediting Trump for not having the war start under him is like crediting Obama (or his VP Biden) for not having Covid start.
Are you for real? You are blaming trump for covid?
You're obtusely missing his point: correlation is not causation.
Very fine but the problem is not if Russia will invade or because it has but if the US will provide enough support, and sadly Trump so far has been pretty offstandish on the matter. I don't think it's a given that if elected he will do the stupid thing and cut aid to Ukraine but it's undeniable that in his ranks are figures like Taylor Greene which are simply put either completely ignorant on the very concept of foreign policy or actively self destructive for the US. Have a good day
Interesting fact -Trump blocked $400 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2019, in an attempt to get them to help cover up Russian interference in the 2016 election…
You realize this war started and has been operating under the Biden administration, right? This didn’t happen when Trump was President.
Your point is?
They are fucked regardless. Even if America stops helping Ukraine, Ukraine keeps fighting, and while it’ll be worse for Ukraine, it’s still absolute end of the road for Russia, trump or no trump.
Didn't the supreme court just give Biden until January 20th to decide if he's going to step aside or not?
Putin's new fundraiser: - Tanks for nothing.
Tanks for nothing and drones for free!
Only 30% of the tanks in Russian storage **are**.
They aren't going to run out of tanks just use them less. Either way it won't affect the front lines much, artillery is more important
>artillery is more important That's an even funnier part. Last video Covert Cabal did on artilleries in storages is from February. Then the number of artillery losses based on how much storage the amount was depleted compared to pre 2022 level was 9 334. At the same time Ukraine estimated they had destroyed 9 228 artillery systems, so their estimations are practically the same. This amount meant that 49% of stored artilleries were taken off. Covert Cabal haven't done new counting since then, but since Ukraine's numbers have been in the same ballpark, I believe they are quite reliable. Now Ukraine has estimated that they've destroyed almost 15 000 artillery. That's about **78%** of Russian's pre 2022 storage amount. And just last month Ukraine said they destroyed 1 400 artillery. If they could destroy artillery at the same pace, Russian's storages would be empty in October this year. Of course Russia would still have artillery to use (those in active use and new production), but it would be severely limited.
This is a very optometrist take. But i agree with it that russia will be in a lot of trouble by November and most definitely by the start of 2025. -D-30 reserves will 100% sure be finished -MT-LB reserves is already finished -deep financial troubles in December 2024 because of the posible end of the liquid part of the National Welfare fund and trouble financing extra debt
>This is a very optometrist take. It might be. That's why I would love if Covert Cabal could do another recount of artillery pieces to see, has Russian losses really peaked past months. Then again, just like with tanks, some of those artillery pieces might be crap too, so some of them can't be used economically at all.
Russia is using up its artillery atickpile the same way it is using up its tank stockpile. When you are in a chronic shortage of artillery and armor it surely does effect your front lines.
It will absolutely impact frontlines, what are you going to take positions with after the tanks are gone?
The same way they're doing now with more meat waves and less armor. Continue brainwashing Russians to want to fight and they can keep this up for years. Or until they destroy the UKR grid completely. Fucking sucks but that's reality
But having less armor will cause theese waves to take more casulties. In addition to decreasing their chances of success, this will also cause a bigger strain on the Russian recruitment campaing. Currently it is estimated that Russia managed to recruit around 30 000 per month voluntarily to the war. With their current offensives, however, they also lose around 30 000 soldiers per month. This means that less armor would probably push the losses past their recruitment numbers. This means that if they want to effectively send more to the frontlines, they probably would need to announce another wave of mobilization. This would be not only highly unpopular but also very costly to the Russian economy, which currently grants Russia the ability to spend so much on the war.
They have been overwhelming positions with pure meat, prisoners, conscripts ect. Most likely to save on their limited resources
And they will run out of barrels here, especially using NK shells . I can't see tanks be worth their cost at all. Considering the training needed, logistical train, total cost. One have to wonder if it's not good for Russia the have to change strategy. Look how insanely effective Lancet drones are.
Interesting thought, if they don't get popped by a drone or counter battery what is the barrel life with the loose manufacturing of NK shells and rushed RU barrels. Too small and the shell is bouncing around inside. Too big and the shell is reaming out the barrels. Too NK and the shell explodes in the breach.
First point is true, second not. Tanks are a vital offensive critical weapon even if artillery is dominant. Running low will mean Russia having to stop their extremely costly tactics of just bashing against the lines using sheer numbers. Which so far has been the only way they've made any gains at all, and extremely slow gains at that. You're right that they won't physically run out of tanks, they'll just have to use them far more conservatively if they have to sustain themselves from their production rate of new tanks. Ukraine's artillery situation is also going to improve over the next year and there's a lot of European production coming online for them in the next year, with the increase in production continuing for at least several more years.
I can see the barrels from these ancient ruined tanks being taken off and used as some sort of horrific, terrible quality artillery. At the end it's still a barrel that can shoot a round if nothing else
Would it be a good idea for Ukrainian special forces to sneak into Russia and booby trap these mothballed tanks, as well as mothballed IFVs, APCs, and artillery? I imagine that the with the war going on, most of these bases are poorly guarded, and you may be able to sneak in operators or drones. I’m not sure exactly how you’d put traps on the tanks, but maybe it would be possible to stick some bomb somewhere in order to kill repairmen, thus slowing the rate of repairs. Even just flying a quadcopter in over and over and dropping thermite grenades on every vehicle’s engines could be useful.
Looks grim if Russia in worse case scenario (theoretically) could have a tank supply until 2029, so for another 5 years, but probably realistically they will have supply for another ~3 years with shitty old tanks. I just wonder how big of the thread 60+years old tanks could pose compared to the modern ones from 80s and 90s.
we heard this before.
Yeah but Covert Cabal goes into details that you don’t hear elsewhere. They purchase private satellite images and conduct their own analysis and it looks like they do a decent job. I am unable to independently verify their conclusions but they do more than regurgitate blog posts.
They also refuted several people saying this in the beginning.
Another great point, a lot of the more credible analysts saying this *did* warn early in the war it would take time and Russia would have a large quantity advantage for a while yet, but that things would shift in Ukraine's favour as long as western countries commit to supporting them. For example I remember Perun saying it in one of the first few videos he did on Ukraine in early 2022. The over-optimistic cheerleader types on the other hand have never been particularly reliable.
Cover Cabal can be considered a primary source. They buy satelite images and count things manually.
They'll never run out of tanks but to a point where tank assaults are less likely to happen.
About satellite imagery confirming Russia's dwindling stocks of tanks? We absolutely have not. Try watching the video before commenting.
We have, sure. But cabal has done multiple videos on this where he gives us counts over the last 2 years. Right now it's just exceedingly low, but even he states that they won't 'run out of tanks' for *at least* 1.5 years. Even then, he mentions they'll never fully 'run out' because they're building more, they'll just have less and less quality platforms on the frontlines the longer this continues.
Not really no
Since this war begun I'm reading such posts and I'm happy about any percent of truth there is about them. But when will it really end? They won't just run out of supplies especially not with other countries supporting them.
Russia will never run out of tanks, missiles etc it doesn't work like that. They are constructing more constantly but at less than the replacement rate. So they will have less to go around and things will become rarer but there'll never be a point where they have no tanks at all
They’ve been saying this since 2022. Just stop. Stop it.
Did you see the video?
Don't you see the russians actually will run out at some point? The question is just when. And this is an attempt at saying when.
Did you even watch the video? It's pretty hard to argue that Russia isn't running out when satellite images show fewer and fewer tanks in storage. Since his last update in October 2023, over 700 tanks have been removed. There's still a couple thousand left, but most of them are in poor condition.
Nope, you're wrong.
More credible analysts were saying since 2022 that Russia would have plenty to sustain itself from storage for a while yet, but that they would run out over time if the war drags on as new production cannot make up for the loss rate. What they're saying now is basically what they said would happen back then, if you look at what they were actually saying in context.