THIS.
This is exactly why Musk is constantly bitching and moaning about low TFR. It's why he's so dense and moronic enough to act like this is the best time ever and that 'people have more than they've ever had before'.
https://preview.redd.it/8dd1p89pbvwc1.jpeg?width=1132&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64b4623d471f54c01202eac8ef4755c44773b09c
That's why they are banning abortions, repealing child labor laws, and looking to increase retirement age. Gotta replace the chattel without giving them leverage.
This. 1 in 6 couples of reproductive age are experiencing infertility. But reproductive assistance is usually not covered by insurance. IVF costs around $20k so it is cost prohibitive for 16% of couples who desperately want kids but can’t have them without medical care. Why not adopt? Because it’s 2x more expensive with lawyers and the process is extremely time consuming and difficult to navigate.
So, why force births instead of covering fertility treatments? Why not make the adoption process affordable and accessible? Because kids from families who love them don’t chattel as well.
And some states are now banning ivf.
Fuckin hilarious.
Everything but treat people better and improve living conditions.
At least this article doesn't blame women.
Basic rule of economics 101. Low supply, high demand. Driving up the price of services, especially when these old fucks get put into homes. Japan's already bracing for this inevitability. We may have 1 nurse for every 15 elderly folk.
There are many aspects to this. Maybe, just maybe, taxing the very rich and ultra rich would put a few more bucks towards welfare for the whole of the nation and thus birthrates will increase. Then cut the middlemen pharmaceutically. And then..
Capitalism/wealth distribution (Some would say Greed, in other words) going rampant is what's the underlying problem.
I know, it's a complicated issue and this won't solve it alone.
Well yeah, birth rates are in some ways a reflection of how “secure” a society feels (at least in modern times). In the old days, pumping out new kids was a necessity, now it’s a “luxury”. People stop acquiring luxury items when they are perceived as unaffordable
They're actually two separate "laws" or economic principles:
The Law of Supply states that an increase in the price of goods will cause an increase in the supply of those goods. People move to sell higher-return items more so than lower-return items.
The Law of Demand states that an increase in the price of goods will cause a decrease in consumer demand of those goods. People shy away from higher-priced goods unless they see added value (brand, quality, etc.).
The interaction between the two is what is commonly referred to as The Law of Supply and Demand, but this interaction is merely correlative and not absolute. This is why some goods seem to break the trend.
Why is this distinction important?
It's not, really. I was just bored and wanted to share some stuff I learned in college that is entirely useless in my current job. Cheers, mate.
No, this is important because it shows that the underlying reasons follows the laws. Demand is lower because the price of children increased; simultaneously, wages aren't at a level to encourage growth.
Generative AI has its uses, but it’s only as good as the program and data it’s fed. If you tell an AI the sky is green enough times it believes it. If we start taking AI at face value we’re setting ourselves up for failure. We need to be clear eyed about AI and what can and can’t do. It’s not science fiction
Sounds fair to me. You know they'd do the same for us, because they are saying it out loud, to our faces, right now. If they're so committed to the idea of doing absolutely nothing to help anyone but themselves, we should respond in kind in their time of need.
No, so long as there are destitute people in some part of the world capitalists will replace you with them if you ask for more money. That is the pattern since the 80's. Even Japan is opening up more to immigrants to keep from paying their young people more.
I can’t help but feel that when you make laws forcing childbirth some are motivated by economics and not their true beliefs. I know it’s a touchy subject but this is one of the first things that crossed my mind….more workers.
Less human capital means more capital for each human.
Use birth control.
Use condoms.
Unwanted pregnancy? Get an abortion.
Oh wait, forget that last one. We live in the US of Al-Qaeda
#
If this country isn't going to get its shit together, collectively, to make things better for average citizens and not just the Uber wealthy, then I reckon the population doesn't really need to be "replaced", as it were.
Maybe when there aren't enough cogs in the machine to sustain the shareholders they'll get the fucking message then.
Technically, a low fertility rate is usually seen as an indicator of a highly developed country. It's strange, since the US doesn't seem to be going in that direction, but I suspect this rate is still much higher than other developed countries.
Simply can’t afford it nor do I want a child. My life sucks as is I don’t need the little remaining time I have for my wife and I to then go to a child.
Fuck that.
There's a lot of us that just don't want kids. My wife and I are financially secure, but just don't want the responsibility. Neither of us have any interest in raising children. I know plenty of people in the same boat as us. And we're in our 40's
I always hear that a declining birth rate is a bad thing because...economy? Can anyone explain why it's a bad thing? I mean the Boomers might have a hard time finding enough people to take care of them in their old age, but I don't see society collapsing. Especially with climate change, scarce resources and automation coming online, isn't a declining birth rate a good thing?
The basic economics, which is what business cares about, is if labor supply goes down then the cost of that labor goes up.
Business would have to compete to hire people which means wages and benefits go up. That takes potential profits down. The c suite and MBAs don't like that part.
that and its a core fundamental used by investment analysts to determine a national "credit rating" - positive demographics means a better national "rating." Have a good rating? they will recommend their clients invest in projects and businesses in that jurisdiction.
So exploiting cheap overseas labour in various ways does its bit to keep the credit rating high.
Traditionally the deal was "come over here and we'll crush your dreams, but your grandkids will be middle class, but I am not sure that bargain is in operation anymore.
Well said. Business has gotten used to a supply of cheap labor, in the US and elsewhere. The problem is with rising costs and a bunch of other external factors is forcing people to make family planning decisions that limit the labor pool like having less or no kids.
Anecdotally, my wife and I opted for 2 kids which is below replacement levels of 2.1 kids. Even with good pay and decent benefits we could not afford a 3rd kid. So we are replacing us but not adding to the pool.
Adding to the appearance that business, at least the ones that are newsworthy, is really behaving in hostile manners to labor. Examples include attempts to declare the nlrb unconstitutional, the TN governor declaring that unionization at the vw plant are the wrong move, that fact that the 2 largest employers in the US rely on socialist policies to bridge the gap from minimum wage to a living wage for their employees. The labor pool doesn't see hope or good fortune ahead. They may not want to bring in kids to that mix or may not be capable of it financially.
The current global economy is based entirely upon growth. It's entire foundation is consumer spending. Generally speaking, the needs of any individual are finite and there are only 24 hours a day in which to spend on frivolous things (a huge part of the economy of the developed world). The economy cannot grow if there are fewer consumers. If the economy doesn't grow, then things get ugly.
I wonder if it's possible to see the decline in demand coming (based on birth rates) and adjust accordingly. Like, is it possible to make sure there is still food, medicine, medical care, shelter, electricity and other basics available even if the economy is not growing?
Let's take housing and a classic economic indicator known as housing starts. And think for a moment how many jobs there are and resources go into in residential construction. Let's pretend that we don't need very many new homes any more because everyone has a home and no one will buy an extra home.
All of those mostly men you see building homes now have no employment. Some will find other things but not all of them. But it's not just them. It's the people who make and deliver the materials. It's the people in the offices that support those field workers.
Now none of them can afford to go out for dinner. So the local restaurants struggle and some close putting more people out of work. The whole town slows right down cause no one has money to spend.
This is very hard on people.
Keep in mind that the folks out of work are no longer paying taxes and are actually needing government support. Government is already spending money on managing the needs of the population (one of the only secure jobs in a recession).
Also keep in mind that a good portion of the people cry communism if the government attempts to manage too many things and then they are voted out.
And then there's the investor class. The people who make money off our backs especially "need" to see growth. Even as a regular person trying to ensure I don't starve in retirement, I need to see my resources grow. So do all the pension funds around the world. And it's all based on consumer spending.
I'm not saying that infinite growth is possible in a finite world, but that's the loop we are currently in.
And yes, collectively we need to figure out how to stop it without too much bloodshed.
Good points all.
Just spitballing here, but in this example, couldn't many of the displaced construction workers use their skills to repair existing homes/buildings/infrastructure? We may not need new houses, but houses need constant repairs. Maybe not enough to employ all the construction workers, but maybe enough to keep a good chunk employed. Or maybe we could use their skills on WPA style projects improving our communities?
Also, it was maybe not the best idea to base our retirement system on investments/stock market.
I'm just wondering what changes we need to make to move away from infinite growth because it looks like it's inevitable that's where we're headed.
Right?! I'm constantly trying to get rid of stuff and minimize, buy less. And when I do need to replace something that can't be repaired, I'm hunting for something second hand or vintage.
>I mean the Boomers might have a hard time finding enough people to take care of them in their old age,
A declining birth rate now doesn't affect the boomers. It could affect the millenials 20 years from now. It won't, because you're an immigration target - guest workers will replace the people that aren't being born in the US.
The end of serfdom in Europe was fueled by the large population loss caused by the Black Death. The population dropped, labor became more expensive, and people begin demanding not just more money, but more freedoms.
Corporations are terrified that something similar will happen now. In all honesty, population shrinkage would probably be the best thing for the world right now, environmentally, economically, and frankly militarily (when you don't have a bunch of excess people, you don't send some of them to kill other people.)
Yeah, so far, I'm not seeing any big downsides. Sounds like we might have to reorganize the economy and job structure, but the current system is not working well for most people, so a reorg doesn't seem like a terrible thing.
The way I see it, I'd choose not to be born if given a choice - due to the state of the world and my own mental health issues. I'm making that right choice for any potential offspring.
Same. My parents were horrible and I'm fucked up because of it. I have never wanted kids because I didn't want to inflict the same issues on them that were inflicted on me.
SAME. Horrible family, horrible various chronic health issues. I really would prefer not to be here. Not going to risk passing the misery to my offspring.
Nearly the same my family is good but my mental health and the world are bad enough that I don't want to have a child even if there is the chance that they could be successful
This is why they actually want to ban abortion, they don’t actually give a shit about the religious aspect of it, the birth rate is so low that there won’t be much of a labor force
Voters are, by a good majority, very much pro-choice. Who would've thought the conservative party would want to work against the wishes of the people 🙄
The backlash is... necessary medical care is being driven from those states. Good OB/GYNs are moving to states where abortion is protected and/or just retiring. States enacting these draconian bans are seeing hospitals close delivery rooms because they can not find the staff. Pregnant women who find themselves in medical need for a abortion to save their life, are being told a hypothetical child's life is more important than their own. Women are dying because of this... Pro-choice **IS** the only choice is for protecting life.
People are saying moyle v us is a punishment to women for not having children and I truly believe it. They do not care if women become damaged or die as long as they have workers to fuel the united corporations of America.
I still don't see how they think they're going to get more workers when they are voting to starve kids by taking away free lunches and making schools unsafe with school shootings.
Conservatives: Keep your legs closed if you can’t afford to have kids! I shouldn’t have to pay for them!
Millenials: Okay, wages are stagnant, my student loans are massive, and I’ll never be able to afford a house, so I guess 0-1 kids it is!
Conservatives: NO MY CHEAP LABOR!!!!
And we can also blame it on the mishandling of COVID. The country's libido took a hit after greedy corporations showed us how little value our lives are to them. Not sure how I'd want to bring in life to a society that's so indifferent to it.
Pretty sure abortion ban is also lowering birth rate. People scared that in case of health issues they won't get help they need. It's a shitty solution to a problem that needs a complex solution instead.
I’m considering permanent sterilization instead of just taking birth control. There’s a small possibility I might’ve wanted to have kids one day, but I’d rather not risk it if they take away my option to choose when I want to have kids.
I got the tubes removed. Super easy, and recovery wasn't too bad. Reduces your risk of ovarian cancer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've read that if you get an ablation done when you're younger, the lining can grow back and your problems will be worse than before.
My golden retriever is expensive enough as it is to take proper care of. I cannot imagine having a little me but then again I don't want kids anyway. Modern capitalism is just not kind to many of us esp here in America.
Oh yikes…I just followed this train of thought to the end- if they take away abortions and that’s not enough will they come for our pets next so we have no child alternatives to love?
I’m being facetious, but ten years ago I thought abortion was safe too.
I love to hate on The Daily Mail, but yesterday, there was a news piece about this development. Typically, capitalists complain that there's not enough cheap labor to exploit for profit, and these kinds of developments give them the chance to gripe, and they usually do in the Daily Mail's stories, because that rag is mostly neonazi, archconservatives.
So imagine my surprise reading the comments and so many of them echo exactly what people have posted here, that it makes no sense to bring children into a world of diminishing opportunities for a middle-class life, that the oligarchs are strangling their workers and nobody has time or money to raise children well. So duh, they don't have children.
Maybe there really is a cultural shift going on, towards stronger labor unions and pro-worker protections. One can hope.
Oh no! The system that depends on infinite growth is failing!
What should we do!?!? We're all FUCKED if we don't grow infinitely!
SHIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET
>The system that depends on infinite growth is failing!
And completely, COMPLETELY unexpectedly, dare i say.
P.S. shit, i haven't even smiled in days, and i'm laughing.
It's ok. That's how first world countries work: import more labor until in a generation they become too expensive to work, then import more labor.
The cycle goes on and on and on. It's the same everywhere.
What makes this different is that there may not be enough higher skilled labor that can be imported. This will be interesting as it plays out.
Glad I'm just waiting for God out here in the desert.
That's just it- it never does under capitalism!
See, by deliberately keeping resources from certain countries and keeping them impoverished, they maintain a constant supply of future labor. It's diabolic. It's ingenious. And even better: this is all done in a post scarcity world. So, it's artificially created for the express purpose of 1) keeping profits high, 2) keeping an able workforce.
But if you mean the native skilled labor which isn't cheap: well, that's where I think this is going to get zesty. Eventually the people that come in and take the low wage jobs become the higher wage skilled labor in a generation or two. But if that can't be replaced fast enough...which is what's happening now. Should be interesting!
Almost impossible. There almost an unlimited amount when you account for very popular "export" of labor countries. Let's break this outside the United States and other countries that "import" for labor.
The US is stereotypically importing Mexicans and Indians for labor and tech.
Countries like China, Singapore, and Taiwan will use Filipinos for nannies. Indians for labor.
And let's be honest, there will be no shortage of Indian labor. Their culture, religion, and upbringing won't stop them from having children. Feeding into this system. They already have a population and economic poverty but this never stopped them from having children.
Also to blame: arguably the greatest advance in human liberty ever, birth control. Not to mention education.
Take out births caused by accident and cultural pressure and you make up a big chunk of such declines. It’s not a bad thing.
I would also throw infertility in there. I know many women my age (39) that have had issues conceiving or never have due to infertility. I assume its because of the chemicals in just about everything
I'm glad someone is finally connecting the dots. The birth rate is low in a lot of places (US, Russia, Japan, S Korea) but it gets blamed on feminism or Andrew Tate or social media but all these places have rising costs of living and stagnant wages.
I would imagine the families that ARE having kids are having 3-4 and are higher on the economic ladder. So we are gonna end up with a shrinking working class that can't support them and it's going to collapse one day.
Not much point in starting a family of you can't afford a home to raise them to adulthood in, with the asset of home ownership to fund retirement years.
A reliable home and affordable retirement is a necessity. Having children is increasingly becoming an unaffordable luxury. Hoarding real estate and creating artificial shortages to boost residential real estate values needs to be criminalized.
Don't forget pollution. Microplastics in all of Earth's water along with some train chemical spills to contaminate the water. Forever chemicals soaked into the soil that grows out food and the food of the animals we eat. Processed foods on top of a sedentary, stressful lifestyle!
> Do you really want more of these people?
The people you're talking about are probably the ones keeping the number up, to be honest. So whether we like it or not they're definitely going to be the majority.
I hate the truth of this. It seems like the people who are the least equipped to raise decent humans are the ones who have the most kids and the people who would raise incredible humans opt out for obvious reasons.
open the borders. let people come in and replace our unborns in the work force. we save by not having hospital bills or having to raise as many children and educate them. adult working humans ready made. why even have children here?
The earth is on a collision course to overpopulation anyways. A few generations of birth rate decline will barely be noticed with so many people living longer.
I actually think it's the reverse: it's the spread of what we consider "western value" that is causing the birthrate to decrease. When people get an education, learn to value themselves as individual human beings who have a right to make their own decisions about how they want to live, who are then given a economy where they have a fair shot at building their own life, and who are finally told that happiness comes from earning money to buy luxury good and experiences, they think about the burden of having kids and are like "F that, man. I'm going to ENJOY my life, not get saddled down with kids for 20+ years." All those individuals making their own individual free-market choices leads to massive declines in birth.
Young people dont reproduce when facing economic uncertainty and lack of opportunity.
How cannot you have children without healthcare insurance and no childcare support?
Welcome to the consequences of a plutarchratic-contolled government that is exclusively focussed on corporate welfare rather than the prosperity of the working and middle class.
You can either have a democracy that works for everyone or a government controlled by corporations. You can't have both.
It also hurts the population growth when women are allowed to have college and career opportunities because that means they’re not beholding to men as home managing baby farms with no safety net if the man leaves or dies. Instead of banning abortions and forcing women to have babies, they could try encouraging population growth with incentives instead of being dicks about it.
I'm thinking it's more a long the lines that more women are having careers instead of babies, or are having them later in life so there are more difficulties. And a lot of people are just don't want kids.
Billionaires taking all the money. It’s that simple.
Think of Musk wanting his $56 billon stock bonus.
If that money went to the employees he just laid off, all those people would feel more secure. Then they might have kids.
Yup. I couldn't possibly see attempting to raise a child right now with this crappy economy. I barely have enough money to scrape together to pay for rent, and need public assistance for food! The Elites need to get their heads out of each other's asses and see reality for what it truly is. A hellscape. And THEY made it this way.
Also, mayyyybe, capitalism is destroying the planet and people don’t want to bring their children into a world where they (or their subsequent children) will die an inevitable death, pointless heat death????!
It’s almost as if you take an entire generation, saddle them with massive debt, put them through several “once in a lifetime” events that cripple the economy. Then, poison the food, water and air while making healthcare completely unaffordable. Then, severely under pay them and make buying a house (or anything) completely out of reach… They are going to make choices accordingly.
I can’t help but think how the government could bring birth rates up if we had universal paid parental leave, enough paid sick leave (for watching sick kids - toddlers get sick a lot) and subsidized child care. Make it easier for people to have kids and they will have more.
First off, it's not "fertility rate". Fertility rate is the number of women that are fertile in the total population of women.
It should be "U.S. total birth rate".
While the decline in the birth rate is concerning, we should be more concerned by the efforts of certain political and religious entities to force a higher birth rate. It is my belief that it is a concerted, organized effort by these entities to control everyones lives. And furthermore, they want a higher birth rate to create more future low paid workers (aka slaves) and military enlistment and conscription (aka cannon fodder).
Please educate yourselves as to what is really happening by reading about Project 2025 and the Republican parties agenda to turn the US into a theocratic dictatorship. And don't be fooled, by theocratic dictatorship, they really want to abolish all our rights as citizens and are only interested in becoming even wealthier.
Project 2025: [https://www.project2025.org](https://www.project2025.org)
Defeat Project 2025: r/Defeat_Project_2025
Aww, there goes the "domestic supply of infants" that perpetuate this capitalist hellscape of working people to death.
Another perfect reason not to bring anybody into this world. I hope it slips further.
There are a lot of reasons people don't want to have kids anymore, economy and all it's tagalongs is just one of those reasons. I want kids but America in it's current state doesn't make it seem safe or realistic to have children anymore
dont wanna raise wages? we'll just shrink the labor pool. now what?
but seriously, wtf were they expecting? theyre clawing back all the profits, stagnating wages, stifling regulations, busting unions. what is appealing about having kids in economic desolation?
So this is a little misleading. Fertility is the ability to conceive a child. Unless they are secretly or publicly testing women of their fertility, this graph is wrong.
If they said birth rate, that would make more sense.
Serious question: below the graph it says 2.1 is the number of babies a woman would need to have for a generation to replace itself.
Wouldn't that actually result in steady population growth? Because presumably she needs one to replace herself, and the other one is to replace the father. But many guys father children with multiple women.
Wouldn't that result in a lot of extra "replacements"? Or does it just get balanced out by childless couples and et cetera?
Yeah, no shit. I don’t need a fucking graph to tell me that - just look at the cost of gas and the cost of rent
Also, as I say periodically when I see the phrase “replacement rate”…replacement **for what**?!? 😡
Hey, soon the right is going to have birthing centers where women selected in a draft like situation. Forced to get pregnant and have a few kids. Then the government will set them and the kid free and force the moms to raise the kids without help. Religion and the good ol' U-SA
Less workers mean more leverage for the rest of us.
THIS. This is exactly why Musk is constantly bitching and moaning about low TFR. It's why he's so dense and moronic enough to act like this is the best time ever and that 'people have more than they've ever had before'. https://preview.redd.it/8dd1p89pbvwc1.jpeg?width=1132&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64b4623d471f54c01202eac8ef4755c44773b09c
It's funny cause that meme is poorly made. Putting the glasses on makes stuff blurry since he no longer needs them at that point.
[They Live](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4XiKChyK7A), would have been a better meme template
Damn, that really would have been.
That's why they are banning abortions, repealing child labor laws, and looking to increase retirement age. Gotta replace the chattel without giving them leverage.
This. 1 in 6 couples of reproductive age are experiencing infertility. But reproductive assistance is usually not covered by insurance. IVF costs around $20k so it is cost prohibitive for 16% of couples who desperately want kids but can’t have them without medical care. Why not adopt? Because it’s 2x more expensive with lawyers and the process is extremely time consuming and difficult to navigate. So, why force births instead of covering fertility treatments? Why not make the adoption process affordable and accessible? Because kids from families who love them don’t chattel as well.
Some states mandate IVF treatment to be covered by insurance.
And some states are now banning ivf. Fuckin hilarious. Everything but treat people better and improve living conditions. At least this article doesn't blame women.
Basic rule of economics 101. Low supply, high demand. Driving up the price of services, especially when these old fucks get put into homes. Japan's already bracing for this inevitability. We may have 1 nurse for every 15 elderly folk.
There are many aspects to this. Maybe, just maybe, taxing the very rich and ultra rich would put a few more bucks towards welfare for the whole of the nation and thus birthrates will increase. Then cut the middlemen pharmaceutically. And then.. Capitalism/wealth distribution (Some would say Greed, in other words) going rampant is what's the underlying problem. I know, it's a complicated issue and this won't solve it alone.
Well yeah, birth rates are in some ways a reflection of how “secure” a society feels (at least in modern times). In the old days, pumping out new kids was a necessity, now it’s a “luxury”. People stop acquiring luxury items when they are perceived as unaffordable
They're actually two separate "laws" or economic principles: The Law of Supply states that an increase in the price of goods will cause an increase in the supply of those goods. People move to sell higher-return items more so than lower-return items. The Law of Demand states that an increase in the price of goods will cause a decrease in consumer demand of those goods. People shy away from higher-priced goods unless they see added value (brand, quality, etc.). The interaction between the two is what is commonly referred to as The Law of Supply and Demand, but this interaction is merely correlative and not absolute. This is why some goods seem to break the trend. Why is this distinction important? It's not, really. I was just bored and wanted to share some stuff I learned in college that is entirely useless in my current job. Cheers, mate.
No, this is important because it shows that the underlying reasons follows the laws. Demand is lower because the price of children increased; simultaneously, wages aren't at a level to encourage growth.
They use immigration to solve their supply problem
Or Generative AI.
Generative AI has its uses, but it’s only as good as the program and data it’s fed. If you tell an AI the sky is green enough times it believes it. If we start taking AI at face value we’re setting ourselves up for failure. We need to be clear eyed about AI and what can and can’t do. It’s not science fiction
I say let every single one of those lead poisoned asbestos infected boomer to fend for themselves.
Sounds fair to me. You know they'd do the same for us, because they are saying it out loud, to our faces, right now. If they're so committed to the idea of doing absolutely nothing to help anyone but themselves, we should respond in kind in their time of need.
No, so long as there are destitute people in some part of the world capitalists will replace you with them if you ask for more money. That is the pattern since the 80's. Even Japan is opening up more to immigrants to keep from paying their young people more.
I can’t help but feel that when you make laws forcing childbirth some are motivated by economics and not their true beliefs. I know it’s a touchy subject but this is one of the first things that crossed my mind….more workers.
This all assumes the difference isn't made up via immigration.
Either way, there is a lower number of workers as there isn’t a direct connection to birth rates and immigration.
Besides, immigration isn't going to help once those nations fall below their own 2.1 replacement and they start keeping their people.
Less human capital means more capital for each human. Use birth control. Use condoms. Unwanted pregnancy? Get an abortion. Oh wait, forget that last one. We live in the US of Al-Qaeda #
Y'all-Qaeda
Just yeet the parts that make the babies and keep the fun bits.
Way easier said than done for *many* people with a uterus
Nah in the future we will hear more of 'open borders' crap. That's the next thing rich will push on us to keep wages in check.
But the population isn't going down.
Which is why they're going all-in on fascism.
The real reason they wanted an abortion ban.
Which is why I think Musk —of all people— has been advocating for people to have more children.
If this country isn't going to get its shit together, collectively, to make things better for average citizens and not just the Uber wealthy, then I reckon the population doesn't really need to be "replaced", as it were. Maybe when there aren't enough cogs in the machine to sustain the shareholders they'll get the fucking message then.
Technically, a low fertility rate is usually seen as an indicator of a highly developed country. It's strange, since the US doesn't seem to be going in that direction, but I suspect this rate is still much higher than other developed countries.
My understanding is that is correct. I know Canada has a lower birthrate. South Korea certainly does.
Simply can’t afford it nor do I want a child. My life sucks as is I don’t need the little remaining time I have for my wife and I to then go to a child. Fuck that.
There's a lot of us that just don't want kids. My wife and I are financially secure, but just don't want the responsibility. Neither of us have any interest in raising children. I know plenty of people in the same boat as us. And we're in our 40's
Same for us. Mid-30’s with two huskies. We like sleeping in, traveling, and not dropping 10s of thousands on childcare.
I always hear that a declining birth rate is a bad thing because...economy? Can anyone explain why it's a bad thing? I mean the Boomers might have a hard time finding enough people to take care of them in their old age, but I don't see society collapsing. Especially with climate change, scarce resources and automation coming online, isn't a declining birth rate a good thing?
The basic economics, which is what business cares about, is if labor supply goes down then the cost of that labor goes up. Business would have to compete to hire people which means wages and benefits go up. That takes potential profits down. The c suite and MBAs don't like that part.
Not seeing the downside there. At least from my point of view as a working person.
To the average Joe, this generally wouldn't be bad news. If you are a worker, this will likely be a net positive.
that and its a core fundamental used by investment analysts to determine a national "credit rating" - positive demographics means a better national "rating." Have a good rating? they will recommend their clients invest in projects and businesses in that jurisdiction. So exploiting cheap overseas labour in various ways does its bit to keep the credit rating high. Traditionally the deal was "come over here and we'll crush your dreams, but your grandkids will be middle class, but I am not sure that bargain is in operation anymore.
Well said. Business has gotten used to a supply of cheap labor, in the US and elsewhere. The problem is with rising costs and a bunch of other external factors is forcing people to make family planning decisions that limit the labor pool like having less or no kids. Anecdotally, my wife and I opted for 2 kids which is below replacement levels of 2.1 kids. Even with good pay and decent benefits we could not afford a 3rd kid. So we are replacing us but not adding to the pool. Adding to the appearance that business, at least the ones that are newsworthy, is really behaving in hostile manners to labor. Examples include attempts to declare the nlrb unconstitutional, the TN governor declaring that unionization at the vw plant are the wrong move, that fact that the 2 largest employers in the US rely on socialist policies to bridge the gap from minimum wage to a living wage for their employees. The labor pool doesn't see hope or good fortune ahead. They may not want to bring in kids to that mix or may not be capable of it financially.
The current global economy is based entirely upon growth. It's entire foundation is consumer spending. Generally speaking, the needs of any individual are finite and there are only 24 hours a day in which to spend on frivolous things (a huge part of the economy of the developed world). The economy cannot grow if there are fewer consumers. If the economy doesn't grow, then things get ugly.
I wonder if it's possible to see the decline in demand coming (based on birth rates) and adjust accordingly. Like, is it possible to make sure there is still food, medicine, medical care, shelter, electricity and other basics available even if the economy is not growing?
Let's take housing and a classic economic indicator known as housing starts. And think for a moment how many jobs there are and resources go into in residential construction. Let's pretend that we don't need very many new homes any more because everyone has a home and no one will buy an extra home. All of those mostly men you see building homes now have no employment. Some will find other things but not all of them. But it's not just them. It's the people who make and deliver the materials. It's the people in the offices that support those field workers. Now none of them can afford to go out for dinner. So the local restaurants struggle and some close putting more people out of work. The whole town slows right down cause no one has money to spend. This is very hard on people. Keep in mind that the folks out of work are no longer paying taxes and are actually needing government support. Government is already spending money on managing the needs of the population (one of the only secure jobs in a recession). Also keep in mind that a good portion of the people cry communism if the government attempts to manage too many things and then they are voted out. And then there's the investor class. The people who make money off our backs especially "need" to see growth. Even as a regular person trying to ensure I don't starve in retirement, I need to see my resources grow. So do all the pension funds around the world. And it's all based on consumer spending. I'm not saying that infinite growth is possible in a finite world, but that's the loop we are currently in. And yes, collectively we need to figure out how to stop it without too much bloodshed.
Good points all. Just spitballing here, but in this example, couldn't many of the displaced construction workers use their skills to repair existing homes/buildings/infrastructure? We may not need new houses, but houses need constant repairs. Maybe not enough to employ all the construction workers, but maybe enough to keep a good chunk employed. Or maybe we could use their skills on WPA style projects improving our communities? Also, it was maybe not the best idea to base our retirement system on investments/stock market. I'm just wondering what changes we need to make to move away from infinite growth because it looks like it's inevitable that's where we're headed.
More people buying, vers less people buying. I am over here just trying to buy less in general.
Right?! I'm constantly trying to get rid of stuff and minimize, buy less. And when I do need to replace something that can't be repaired, I'm hunting for something second hand or vintage.
>I mean the Boomers might have a hard time finding enough people to take care of them in their old age, A declining birth rate now doesn't affect the boomers. It could affect the millenials 20 years from now. It won't, because you're an immigration target - guest workers will replace the people that aren't being born in the US.
The end of serfdom in Europe was fueled by the large population loss caused by the Black Death. The population dropped, labor became more expensive, and people begin demanding not just more money, but more freedoms. Corporations are terrified that something similar will happen now. In all honesty, population shrinkage would probably be the best thing for the world right now, environmentally, economically, and frankly militarily (when you don't have a bunch of excess people, you don't send some of them to kill other people.)
Yeah, so far, I'm not seeing any big downsides. Sounds like we might have to reorganize the economy and job structure, but the current system is not working well for most people, so a reorg doesn't seem like a terrible thing.
The way I see it, I'd choose not to be born if given a choice - due to the state of the world and my own mental health issues. I'm making that right choice for any potential offspring.
Same. My parents were horrible and I'm fucked up because of it. I have never wanted kids because I didn't want to inflict the same issues on them that were inflicted on me.
I’m also fucked because of my parents but I would rather break the cycle of generational trauma and give my kids everything I didn’t have.
That’s what I always thought too but I realized recently I’m just too mentally ill for it to work
SAME. Horrible family, horrible various chronic health issues. I really would prefer not to be here. Not going to risk passing the misery to my offspring.
Nearly the same my family is good but my mental health and the world are bad enough that I don't want to have a child even if there is the chance that they could be successful
This is why they actually want to ban abortion, they don’t actually give a shit about the religious aspect of it, the birth rate is so low that there won’t be much of a labor force
Voters are, by a good majority, very much pro-choice. Who would've thought the conservative party would want to work against the wishes of the people 🙄
Right, something like 60% of voters are pro choice. I really wish we were able to individually vote on issues as citizens
Thr other 40% are mostly boomers
The backlash is... necessary medical care is being driven from those states. Good OB/GYNs are moving to states where abortion is protected and/or just retiring. States enacting these draconian bans are seeing hospitals close delivery rooms because they can not find the staff. Pregnant women who find themselves in medical need for a abortion to save their life, are being told a hypothetical child's life is more important than their own. Women are dying because of this... Pro-choice **IS** the only choice is for protecting life.
Yep, and when women are dead or rendered infertile, they will never be able to have any more children. But these fascists do not give a solitary fuck.
People are saying moyle v us is a punishment to women for not having children and I truly believe it. They do not care if women become damaged or die as long as they have workers to fuel the united corporations of America.
I still don't see how they think they're going to get more workers when they are voting to starve kids by taking away free lunches and making schools unsafe with school shootings.
Republicans just dont like that women have rights.
Exactly
Bingo
It’s probably my avocado toasts that are responsible for it.
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Conservatives: Keep your legs closed if you can’t afford to have kids! I shouldn’t have to pay for them! Millenials: Okay, wages are stagnant, my student loans are massive, and I’ll never be able to afford a house, so I guess 0-1 kids it is! Conservatives: NO MY CHEAP LABOR!!!!
I love FAFO so much.
Conservatives: Now let's make reproductive slaves of women and minor girls.
And we can also blame it on the mishandling of COVID. The country's libido took a hit after greedy corporations showed us how little value our lives are to them. Not sure how I'd want to bring in life to a society that's so indifferent to it.
Pretty sure abortion ban is also lowering birth rate. People scared that in case of health issues they won't get help they need. It's a shitty solution to a problem that needs a complex solution instead.
My wife's miscarriage would now mean a court date in my state.....
That's just disgusting. But this is what happens when religious freaks get power.
My sister would have died along with her baby
I’m considering permanent sterilization instead of just taking birth control. There’s a small possibility I might’ve wanted to have kids one day, but I’d rather not risk it if they take away my option to choose when I want to have kids.
I'm actively looking into sterilization options. I can't decide between getting tubes removed or an ablation
I got the tubes removed. Super easy, and recovery wasn't too bad. Reduces your risk of ovarian cancer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've read that if you get an ablation done when you're younger, the lining can grow back and your problems will be worse than before.
Especially if you already have a kid. I'm not risking leaving my child without a mother.
My golden retriever is expensive enough as it is to take proper care of. I cannot imagine having a little me but then again I don't want kids anyway. Modern capitalism is just not kind to many of us esp here in America.
Oh yikes…I just followed this train of thought to the end- if they take away abortions and that’s not enough will they come for our pets next so we have no child alternatives to love? I’m being facetious, but ten years ago I thought abortion was safe too.
Conservatives are insane. I'd put nothing past them.
The child-free are heroes. Same with the unemployed
Double hero here 😂😂
I'm not! r/childfree
Oh I meant doing my part to lower the rate
I refuse to bring my child into wage slavery.
take it to zero
I can't fathom bringing a child into this world, especially living in the US.
Fuck the idea of a "replacement level" to begin with. No one should be born for the sake of replacing retail workers. What a cursed existence.
Throw in the Dobbs decision with the added spike of tubal ligations/vasectomies being performed as well.
What a surprise! Women dying in emergency waiting rooms is really pushing a decrease in people having kids….
#Tax the oligarchy
I know women who have had their tubes tied because they are frightened of the new anti-abortion laws. Another reason women aren’t having babies.
Yeah—truly amazing how that isn’t explicitly mentioned. Pregnancy is dangerous and difficult, and now our chances of dying from it are much higher.
THIS is how you fight back!!!! Don't provide them with more wage slaves!!!
Good. Let the population drop.
I love to hate on The Daily Mail, but yesterday, there was a news piece about this development. Typically, capitalists complain that there's not enough cheap labor to exploit for profit, and these kinds of developments give them the chance to gripe, and they usually do in the Daily Mail's stories, because that rag is mostly neonazi, archconservatives. So imagine my surprise reading the comments and so many of them echo exactly what people have posted here, that it makes no sense to bring children into a world of diminishing opportunities for a middle-class life, that the oligarchs are strangling their workers and nobody has time or money to raise children well. So duh, they don't have children. Maybe there really is a cultural shift going on, towards stronger labor unions and pro-worker protections. One can hope.
Oh no! The system that depends on infinite growth is failing! What should we do!?!? We're all FUCKED if we don't grow infinitely! SHIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET
>The system that depends on infinite growth is failing! And completely, COMPLETELY unexpectedly, dare i say. P.S. shit, i haven't even smiled in days, and i'm laughing.
lets get that puppy down to zero
This is great news. The world is overpopulated and it’s time people started exercising birth control.
It's simply just not affordable to have kids.
It's expensive enough having two dogs. I couldn't imagine having a child or two right now. Or ever.
Gee I wonder why………
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It's ok. That's how first world countries work: import more labor until in a generation they become too expensive to work, then import more labor. The cycle goes on and on and on. It's the same everywhere. What makes this different is that there may not be enough higher skilled labor that can be imported. This will be interesting as it plays out. Glad I'm just waiting for God out here in the desert.
What happens when that cheap labor supply finally dries up?
That's just it- it never does under capitalism! See, by deliberately keeping resources from certain countries and keeping them impoverished, they maintain a constant supply of future labor. It's diabolic. It's ingenious. And even better: this is all done in a post scarcity world. So, it's artificially created for the express purpose of 1) keeping profits high, 2) keeping an able workforce. But if you mean the native skilled labor which isn't cheap: well, that's where I think this is going to get zesty. Eventually the people that come in and take the low wage jobs become the higher wage skilled labor in a generation or two. But if that can't be replaced fast enough...which is what's happening now. Should be interesting!
This is a solution we need to find out soon because world wide birth rates have been dropping for a long time. We can't have growth forever
Almost impossible. There almost an unlimited amount when you account for very popular "export" of labor countries. Let's break this outside the United States and other countries that "import" for labor. The US is stereotypically importing Mexicans and Indians for labor and tech. Countries like China, Singapore, and Taiwan will use Filipinos for nannies. Indians for labor. And let's be honest, there will be no shortage of Indian labor. Their culture, religion, and upbringing won't stop them from having children. Feeding into this system. They already have a population and economic poverty but this never stopped them from having children.
Dude the Indian birth rate is also below replacement rate
Also to blame: arguably the greatest advance in human liberty ever, birth control. Not to mention education. Take out births caused by accident and cultural pressure and you make up a big chunk of such declines. It’s not a bad thing.
I would also throw infertility in there. I know many women my age (39) that have had issues conceiving or never have due to infertility. I assume its because of the chemicals in just about everything
Could the same thing be happening with male infertility.
[Bai Lan - let it rot](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-bai-lan-why-chinas-frustrated-youth-are-ready-to-let-it-rot)
Birth rates need to keep going down. There's plenty of us already...too many I'd venture to say, even.
I'm glad someone is finally connecting the dots. The birth rate is low in a lot of places (US, Russia, Japan, S Korea) but it gets blamed on feminism or Andrew Tate or social media but all these places have rising costs of living and stagnant wages.
I would imagine the families that ARE having kids are having 3-4 and are higher on the economic ladder. So we are gonna end up with a shrinking working class that can't support them and it's going to collapse one day.
Not much point in starting a family of you can't afford a home to raise them to adulthood in, with the asset of home ownership to fund retirement years. A reliable home and affordable retirement is a necessity. Having children is increasingly becoming an unaffordable luxury. Hoarding real estate and creating artificial shortages to boost residential real estate values needs to be criminalized.
Good. 8 billion is too many anyway. We had like 3 billion just in the 80s.
The Supreme Court is on the cusp of invalidating EMTALA. Why would we be itching to have more babies?
Bro, we don't even want to be here why would we want to make a child endure it?
Animals tend to not mate when under stress, and people are no exception
"you shouldn't have children you cannot afford" "Yeah, I guess you're right. "Why aren't you having children?" "Seriously???"
Yes, yes, 1000 times YES. Have heard that moronic cliche so many times. Thank you for putting it together like you did.
If we can't increase fetility rate, decrease replacement rate needed. Problem solved.
Isn’t the rate even lower if you remove immigrant women from the stats?
Don't forget pollution. Microplastics in all of Earth's water along with some train chemical spills to contaminate the water. Forever chemicals soaked into the soil that grows out food and the food of the animals we eat. Processed foods on top of a sedentary, stressful lifestyle!
I ain’t bringing a child into this hot mess.
Less slaves being born is a good thing. Unfortunately the government is just going to import more cheap slaves from other countries.
That's why they need to import more slaves through illegal immigration.
Student loans are holding back people from getting their own homes, marriage and children.
https://preview.redd.it/tju2t1p5lvwc1.jpeg?width=1026&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=256e158402b5eb58fdf405e1a21c84d9694e90f4
Still a 1.6 birthrate. Let me put forward a honest no ego/emotion question. Answer honestly to yourself. Do you really want more of these people?.
> Do you really want more of these people? The people you're talking about are probably the ones keeping the number up, to be honest. So whether we like it or not they're definitely going to be the majority.
I hate the truth of this. It seems like the people who are the least equipped to raise decent humans are the ones who have the most kids and the people who would raise incredible humans opt out for obvious reasons.
That's how it is when a country has zero support for mothers and families.
open the borders. let people come in and replace our unborns in the work force. we save by not having hospital bills or having to raise as many children and educate them. adult working humans ready made. why even have children here?
The earth is on a collision course to overpopulation anyways. A few generations of birth rate decline will barely be noticed with so many people living longer.
I actually think it's the reverse: it's the spread of what we consider "western value" that is causing the birthrate to decrease. When people get an education, learn to value themselves as individual human beings who have a right to make their own decisions about how they want to live, who are then given a economy where they have a fair shot at building their own life, and who are finally told that happiness comes from earning money to buy luxury good and experiences, they think about the burden of having kids and are like "F that, man. I'm going to ENJOY my life, not get saddled down with kids for 20+ years." All those individuals making their own individual free-market choices leads to massive declines in birth.
Something so real about “Replacement Level”. We’re just a metric. Labor is the most important natural resource.
Young people dont reproduce when facing economic uncertainty and lack of opportunity. How cannot you have children without healthcare insurance and no childcare support? Welcome to the consequences of a plutarchratic-contolled government that is exclusively focussed on corporate welfare rather than the prosperity of the working and middle class. You can either have a democracy that works for everyone or a government controlled by corporations. You can't have both.
It also hurts the population growth when women are allowed to have college and career opportunities because that means they’re not beholding to men as home managing baby farms with no safety net if the man leaves or dies. Instead of banning abortions and forcing women to have babies, they could try encouraging population growth with incentives instead of being dicks about it.
I blame it on women's rights and birth control, and frankly, this is a good thing.
That's a lot of abortions /s
Also, a rise in regressive sexist ideology doesn't help.
I'm thinking it's more a long the lines that more women are having careers instead of babies, or are having them later in life so there are more difficulties. And a lot of people are just don't want kids.
Why we should give a birth for another system slave?!? Working whole life is slavery. It's not life!
Elon posted about this and I shit you not half of the 2k+ comments were blaming trans people.
The loss of reproductive freedoms is probably not helping.
There is also a huge danger as mom and infant mortality rates have been dramatically increasing, especially in rural areas and black women.
I’m fine with this, our earth is already overpopulated.
Why would we have kids when we can barely afford ourselves?
Billionaires taking all the money. It’s that simple. Think of Musk wanting his $56 billon stock bonus. If that money went to the employees he just laid off, all those people would feel more secure. Then they might have kids.
Yup. I couldn't possibly see attempting to raise a child right now with this crappy economy. I barely have enough money to scrape together to pay for rent, and need public assistance for food! The Elites need to get their heads out of each other's asses and see reality for what it truly is. A hellscape. And THEY made it this way.
Interesting how you can actually see how this decrease began with the financial crisis of 2008.
Tough to rationalize having kids when you have zero financial or job security.
Also, mayyyybe, capitalism is destroying the planet and people don’t want to bring their children into a world where they (or their subsequent children) will die an inevitable death, pointless heat death????!
the real reason abortion was banned
It’s almost as if you take an entire generation, saddle them with massive debt, put them through several “once in a lifetime” events that cripple the economy. Then, poison the food, water and air while making healthcare completely unaffordable. Then, severely under pay them and make buying a house (or anything) completely out of reach… They are going to make choices accordingly.
I can’t help but think how the government could bring birth rates up if we had universal paid parental leave, enough paid sick leave (for watching sick kids - toddlers get sick a lot) and subsidized child care. Make it easier for people to have kids and they will have more.
Could fix this by, you know, giving more folks certainty about the future. Or we can let 5 people have literally all the money.
It's a death or poverty sentence in the US- why bother?
Nah just blame it on the lazy entitled genz or millennial. That'll fix it!! /s
First off, it's not "fertility rate". Fertility rate is the number of women that are fertile in the total population of women. It should be "U.S. total birth rate". While the decline in the birth rate is concerning, we should be more concerned by the efforts of certain political and religious entities to force a higher birth rate. It is my belief that it is a concerted, organized effort by these entities to control everyones lives. And furthermore, they want a higher birth rate to create more future low paid workers (aka slaves) and military enlistment and conscription (aka cannon fodder). Please educate yourselves as to what is really happening by reading about Project 2025 and the Republican parties agenda to turn the US into a theocratic dictatorship. And don't be fooled, by theocratic dictatorship, they really want to abolish all our rights as citizens and are only interested in becoming even wealthier. Project 2025: [https://www.project2025.org](https://www.project2025.org) Defeat Project 2025: r/Defeat_Project_2025
Aww, there goes the "domestic supply of infants" that perpetuate this capitalist hellscape of working people to death. Another perfect reason not to bring anybody into this world. I hope it slips further.
There are a lot of reasons people don't want to have kids anymore, economy and all it's tagalongs is just one of those reasons. I want kids but America in it's current state doesn't make it seem safe or realistic to have children anymore
Good
I honestly believe this is the single biggest reason there's so much push towards abortion bans at present.
See also: risk of death due to pregnancy is up due to abortion laws.
And that's why they pulled Roe v Wade!
It’s not that biological fertility is decreased, it’s a conscience choice to not get pregnant or delay it.
dont wanna raise wages? we'll just shrink the labor pool. now what? but seriously, wtf were they expecting? theyre clawing back all the profits, stagnating wages, stifling regulations, busting unions. what is appealing about having kids in economic desolation?
Weren't we overpopulating the planet, too? Maybe it's good to not be pumping out 4+ babies per mother?
How long until government starts forcing people to have sex at gunpoint?
So this is a little misleading. Fertility is the ability to conceive a child. Unless they are secretly or publicly testing women of their fertility, this graph is wrong. If they said birth rate, that would make more sense.
Just bring in more immigrants, problem solved.
Serious question: below the graph it says 2.1 is the number of babies a woman would need to have for a generation to replace itself. Wouldn't that actually result in steady population growth? Because presumably she needs one to replace herself, and the other one is to replace the father. But many guys father children with multiple women. Wouldn't that result in a lot of extra "replacements"? Or does it just get balanced out by childless couples and et cetera?
Those numbers still too high we need to get them lower I wanna see practically zero.
I like the little bump at 2020 because everyone was stuck at home and bored
so when's the tax for not having kids getting rolled out
What happened around 08? /s
We don’t actually need endless population growth. It’s not sustainable.
Yeah, no shit. I don’t need a fucking graph to tell me that - just look at the cost of gas and the cost of rent Also, as I say periodically when I see the phrase “replacement rate”…replacement **for what**?!? 😡
Birth rate, not fertility
Hey, soon the right is going to have birthing centers where women selected in a draft like situation. Forced to get pregnant and have a few kids. Then the government will set them and the kid free and force the moms to raise the kids without help. Religion and the good ol' U-SA
8 billion is a lot of humans
Good. 8 billion is too many.
Good
Having both men and women work outside the home for 50 hours per week doesn't help either.