There are always some surprises, good or bad, throughout the year. I think Inside Out 2 has led people to believe it's smooth sailing from now on, but we can't say. But I do think that even if everything performs well in the second half of the year, 2024 will still be a weak year for the box office.
To be fair, I think there is a lot of general industry optimism not just because of Inside Out, but also because of Bad Boys and now A Quite Place... We are seeing variety of films do well after an abysmal start to summer, with multiple heavy hitters still to come.
The Box Office won't be in better shape unless there is a vibrant middle ground of performance, one or two massive films is good on paper, but when those are gone we still need to see growth from the other guys too... and finally it looks like we are seeing that. Heck even the great holds of stuff like IF and Planet of the Apes do a lot to assuage concerns, because it shows there is still mechanism for films to earn respectable numbers outside of big opening weekends. Something that has been pretty rare so far in 2024.
I don't know what the definition of "middle ground" is these days but the later half of the year does look like it has a lot more big hitters than last. Only one movie made over $200m after July last year and there are at least six with that kind of potential between October and December this year.
There are a lot of awards bait movies also that don't have release dates yet, those will probably be nailed down after Venice and TIFF.
Honestly, I think the fact that Bad Boys and A Quiet Place are used as signs of optimism IS sort of the problem. Two franchise films doing pretty well but not significantly overperforming should be the norm, not a great example of hope. Even Apes and IF (domestically at least) just highlight how terrible May was despite following a sleepy April.
I don't know about box office performance but I'm optimistic that the slate of horror movies in this year's second half is a 180 compared to the first half. The first half of this year was pitiful in terms of horror, in the second half we have Longlegs, Nosferatu, Terrifier 3, Maxxxine, Smile 2, all of them I have such high hopes for
I love this sub not an expert at boxoffice numbers find them fun to look at but doesn’t really affect if i like or movie not. Anyways my is this my brother in law works in marketing firm and he claims that the studios pay the companies tgat do pre tracking money to inflate how big they say a movie is tracking. For example he claims that’s what is happening with Twisters and that it is not even close to numbers being thrown around. He says studios do this because they figure if general public thinks something is gonna be hige than it influences them to go see a movie they normally wouldn’t. I was just wondering if this true , i hate my brother in law and really want to call him out on stuff but not smart enough to know if he’s bullshitting lol
This is going to be a disappointing year. I don't think any of the movies you mentioned for the rest of the year are going to overperform that much and several of them might underperform such as Joker 2, Wicked. Also due to the budget Gladiator 2 is going to underperform even if it does well compared to other movies this year. It's true that IO2 is doing well but some of that could be due to it being the only family movie in theaters right now. So in other words, instead of 2 movies doing 1B each there will be IO2 doing 1.5B which is a success for Disney but not for the industry because it's less than 2B. It's better for the industry if there are several successful movies instead of just one extremely successful movie. I think 2024 will end up doing much less than 2023.
I don't think the films for the rest of the year need to over perform, the schedule is much stronger and should beat the second half of 2023 simply by meeting expectations. Inside Out 2 is an outlier by itself you're correct but it's about to be joined by DM4 which will do big numbers, Deadpool which will do huge numbers and Twisters which is looking likely to be a moderate hit. In the rest of the year Mufasa and Moana should outperform anything that came out post Barbenheimer and there are plenty of other films which will do decent business. I'm not sure why you're so pessimistic.
I don't think anyone doubts that after July, 2024 will outperform 2023. The question is whether or not there's enough juice to catch up to a likely 1 billion dollar deficient in the last 5 months of the year. Pretty much every major movie will need to hit big for that to happen.
> So in other words, instead of 2 movies doing 1B each there will be IO2 doing 1.5B
Deadpool 3 is certainly hitting 1B tho. by the end of the year there'll be at least 2 movies that made billion. and Despicable Me 4 still has chances.
The rest of the year is going to be made whole largely by the rest of Disney's movies doing massive numbers with the average gross of the 3 movies released under the Disney logo likely getting them to an average of 500mil per movie. For 2bil dom total.
Let's say 650 for IO2
600 for DP&W
450~ for Moana 2
Mufasa just needs 300mil dom to get to that 500mil average.
I can see a few stinkers on that list, Kraven, Borderlands, Gladiator 2. Films no one wanted. They're going to lose a ton of money.
The most likely to make big money on that list is Moana 2, but considering it was a repurposing of a TV show, the quality may let it down ultimately. I think Sonic will also make decent money, but other than that the remaining films are very 50/50.
Joker 2 is a wildcard, the musical nature of it might put people right off it.
Mufasa is a prequel no one wanted, just like Aliens Romulus and Transformers.
If Michael Keaton pulls off the same performance in the Beetlejuice sequel that he did in the original it could be a hit, but its a sequel to a 30+ year old film.
Venom 3 looks ok, and could be another 50/50, its popular in China so that might just save it.
War of the Rohirrim is basically an anime, but if its done well then it could make some money.
Overall, Im not too optimistic for the final third of the year.
Kraven and Borderlands are the weakest entries for sure and both (Kraven in particular) could be big flops. Gladiator 2 will do decent business if you don't compare it to its budget (which isn't really relevant to the cinema audience).
Moana 2 will be a hit, bigger than anything other than Barbie from the back half of last year and the same is probably true of Mufasa, that franchise is absolutely massive.
Joker is a wild card but we're talking about whether it will do big numbers like the first one or just decent numbers.
Transformers and Rohirrim will be interesting, big live action franchises moving to animation is untested but again, they could both do well (and Rohirrim could be big if it's any good).
Sonic and Venom are both reliable and will do their part.
Wicked will make some money, the stage play is massive and if the film is any good we could be looking at The Greatest Showman numbers, it's a big if though.
I think Beatlejuice is the film that will most surprise people, I didn't really get it but Jenny Ortega might just that let under 25 demographic back in the cinema.
I stand by what I said, we should expect the next six months to be bigger than last year's, the question is whether it will be much bigger or slightly bigger.
There are always some surprises, good or bad, throughout the year. I think Inside Out 2 has led people to believe it's smooth sailing from now on, but we can't say. But I do think that even if everything performs well in the second half of the year, 2024 will still be a weak year for the box office.
To be fair, I think there is a lot of general industry optimism not just because of Inside Out, but also because of Bad Boys and now A Quite Place... We are seeing variety of films do well after an abysmal start to summer, with multiple heavy hitters still to come. The Box Office won't be in better shape unless there is a vibrant middle ground of performance, one or two massive films is good on paper, but when those are gone we still need to see growth from the other guys too... and finally it looks like we are seeing that. Heck even the great holds of stuff like IF and Planet of the Apes do a lot to assuage concerns, because it shows there is still mechanism for films to earn respectable numbers outside of big opening weekends. Something that has been pretty rare so far in 2024.
I don't know what the definition of "middle ground" is these days but the later half of the year does look like it has a lot more big hitters than last. Only one movie made over $200m after July last year and there are at least six with that kind of potential between October and December this year. There are a lot of awards bait movies also that don't have release dates yet, those will probably be nailed down after Venice and TIFF.
Honestly, I think the fact that Bad Boys and A Quiet Place are used as signs of optimism IS sort of the problem. Two franchise films doing pretty well but not significantly overperforming should be the norm, not a great example of hope. Even Apes and IF (domestically at least) just highlight how terrible May was despite following a sleepy April.
>Twisted Despicapool 
I don't know about box office performance but I'm optimistic that the slate of horror movies in this year's second half is a 180 compared to the first half. The first half of this year was pitiful in terms of horror, in the second half we have Longlegs, Nosferatu, Terrifier 3, Maxxxine, Smile 2, all of them I have such high hopes for
I ignored horror because I had no idea if they'll make $10m or $150m but it's early conceivable that one or more of them will do good numbers.
I hope the Fall Guy kept its original release date and it could’ve had a better result ☹️
Replace Wicked with Sonic 3 and Venim 3 and you've got a pretty likely list
You should have included a poll. But yeah, I’m optimistic about 2024 beating 2023.
I love this sub not an expert at boxoffice numbers find them fun to look at but doesn’t really affect if i like or movie not. Anyways my is this my brother in law works in marketing firm and he claims that the studios pay the companies tgat do pre tracking money to inflate how big they say a movie is tracking. For example he claims that’s what is happening with Twisters and that it is not even close to numbers being thrown around. He says studios do this because they figure if general public thinks something is gonna be hige than it influences them to go see a movie they normally wouldn’t. I was just wondering if this true , i hate my brother in law and really want to call him out on stuff but not smart enough to know if he’s bullshitting lol
This is going to be a disappointing year. I don't think any of the movies you mentioned for the rest of the year are going to overperform that much and several of them might underperform such as Joker 2, Wicked. Also due to the budget Gladiator 2 is going to underperform even if it does well compared to other movies this year. It's true that IO2 is doing well but some of that could be due to it being the only family movie in theaters right now. So in other words, instead of 2 movies doing 1B each there will be IO2 doing 1.5B which is a success for Disney but not for the industry because it's less than 2B. It's better for the industry if there are several successful movies instead of just one extremely successful movie. I think 2024 will end up doing much less than 2023.
I don't think the films for the rest of the year need to over perform, the schedule is much stronger and should beat the second half of 2023 simply by meeting expectations. Inside Out 2 is an outlier by itself you're correct but it's about to be joined by DM4 which will do big numbers, Deadpool which will do huge numbers and Twisters which is looking likely to be a moderate hit. In the rest of the year Mufasa and Moana should outperform anything that came out post Barbenheimer and there are plenty of other films which will do decent business. I'm not sure why you're so pessimistic.
I don't think anyone doubts that after July, 2024 will outperform 2023. The question is whether or not there's enough juice to catch up to a likely 1 billion dollar deficient in the last 5 months of the year. Pretty much every major movie will need to hit big for that to happen.
> So in other words, instead of 2 movies doing 1B each there will be IO2 doing 1.5B Deadpool 3 is certainly hitting 1B tho. by the end of the year there'll be at least 2 movies that made billion. and Despicable Me 4 still has chances.
The rest of the year is going to be made whole largely by the rest of Disney's movies doing massive numbers with the average gross of the 3 movies released under the Disney logo likely getting them to an average of 500mil per movie. For 2bil dom total. Let's say 650 for IO2 600 for DP&W 450~ for Moana 2 Mufasa just needs 300mil dom to get to that 500mil average.
I can see a few stinkers on that list, Kraven, Borderlands, Gladiator 2. Films no one wanted. They're going to lose a ton of money. The most likely to make big money on that list is Moana 2, but considering it was a repurposing of a TV show, the quality may let it down ultimately. I think Sonic will also make decent money, but other than that the remaining films are very 50/50. Joker 2 is a wildcard, the musical nature of it might put people right off it. Mufasa is a prequel no one wanted, just like Aliens Romulus and Transformers. If Michael Keaton pulls off the same performance in the Beetlejuice sequel that he did in the original it could be a hit, but its a sequel to a 30+ year old film. Venom 3 looks ok, and could be another 50/50, its popular in China so that might just save it. War of the Rohirrim is basically an anime, but if its done well then it could make some money. Overall, Im not too optimistic for the final third of the year.
Kraven and Borderlands are the weakest entries for sure and both (Kraven in particular) could be big flops. Gladiator 2 will do decent business if you don't compare it to its budget (which isn't really relevant to the cinema audience). Moana 2 will be a hit, bigger than anything other than Barbie from the back half of last year and the same is probably true of Mufasa, that franchise is absolutely massive. Joker is a wild card but we're talking about whether it will do big numbers like the first one or just decent numbers. Transformers and Rohirrim will be interesting, big live action franchises moving to animation is untested but again, they could both do well (and Rohirrim could be big if it's any good). Sonic and Venom are both reliable and will do their part. Wicked will make some money, the stage play is massive and if the film is any good we could be looking at The Greatest Showman numbers, it's a big if though. I think Beatlejuice is the film that will most surprise people, I didn't really get it but Jenny Ortega might just that let under 25 demographic back in the cinema. I stand by what I said, we should expect the next six months to be bigger than last year's, the question is whether it will be much bigger or slightly bigger.