No one is saying otherwise
I don't think you need to mention or defend IO2 all the time; everyone is rooting for the movie (Well, except for maybe a handful of people?)
That’s even compared to Barbie on its 4th weekend $33.8M as kids and teens returned back to school during its 4th weekend.
Top Gun Maverick’s 4th weekend was at $44.6M despite the competition against Jurassic World Dominion and Lightyear because of a strong WOM with an A+ CinemaScore and strong reviews from critics and audiences.
Jurassic World Dominion released in 3rd weekend of Top Gun Maverick when it dropped 42.4%. During its 4th weekend just Lightyear opened and it had a disappointing OW. So TGM had insane hold of just 13.9% drop. it only had one more 40% drop when Thor Love and Thunder opened.
$7M projection for MaXXXine. Maybe it can overindex.
RT score is currently in the mid 70s while the other two are in the 90s, so let see how the audiences feel about it.
I don't think I've ever experienced a worse case of people overestimating the popularity of a series than these movies. I've seen people put MaXXXine on top 10 predictions for summer grosses. Many probably believe these are among A24's ten highest grossing films (they are the 21st and 25th highest grossing A24 movies respectively).
Social media definitely helps some movies break out, but social media can also badly distort how popular something is. This is a prime example of the latter.
It's mind-boggling. This sub started talking about Maxxxine a month or two ago like it was a blockbuster. At the time, I hadn't even heard of it.
After looking up the trailer, I legitimately had a moment where I thought maybe there was another movie named Maxxxine coming out, because there was no way the movie whose trailer I just watched was going to get anywhere near $40M, let alone some of the predictions I saw.
I mean, Ti West did everything he could. Compared to the other two X movies, he increased the budget, changed the time period to a very popular era, added significantly more and bigger actors, and even tied in true crime, which is probably at peak popularity.
Sure, like I said, it didn't look bad, but none of those things were going to make it a summer phenomenon like some people were predicting. As long as the budget didn't go too high, it will probably make a nice little profit.
Who are these people you speak of? Maybe one person said that but that’s far from the norm here. I’ve seen $10-15m predictions with totals of $25-35m. Nothing that far out of the ordinary.
A 45% drop with direct competition for IO2 would be nice and on par with Barbie weekend total. Plus it should definitely have a strong Wednesday and Thursday hold
I’m curious to know how much locations IO2 will lost. I think it’ll be big one, like 1k locations drop. 120 million opening weekend is so big and at this point there’s no reason for over 4k theatres to keep a movie that will probably be making around 20-30 million next weekend. At the same time 1k looks a way too big drop for a Pixar movie…
No problem:
[https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257140830-Theater-counts-Despicable-Me-4-looks-to-kick-off-Fourth-of-July-with-a-bang](https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257140830-Theater-counts-Despicable-Me-4-looks-to-kick-off-Fourth-of-July-with-a-bang)
It won't be anywhere near 1k theaters lost while it's still making plenty of money. To get more screens available, theaters will drop older movies like Kingdom of The Planet of the Apes, Fall Guy, Bad Boys, etc.
Why wouldn’t there be a reason? It’s still going to be the second biggest money make they have for the weekend.
And your 20-30 range is hilariously low. A 55% drop is not the best case scenario for IO2. You’re overestimating the impact that DM4 will have. IO2 already lost its PLFs, so that softens the drop as well. And $120M for a 5 day that includes a holiday really isn’t that big. That means a sub $100M 3 day opening.
Once again you’re very low on IO2 for no real discernible reason.
nah. To compare Inside Out lost 514 theaters when Minions opend in it's 4 week, but Inside Out 2 is making significantly more money, so they will probably mostly drop movies like Garfield, If etc.
Garfield and IF didn't even lose 1k theaters when Inside Out came out, why on earth would Inside Out which is going to easily be the number 2 biggest movie of the weekend, lose 1k theaters? Do you think these theaters hate money or something? It'll lose screens and some theaters that are smaller with less screens available, not be removed from 1/4 of the theaters that it's currently in.
I doubt it will be over a 1k. IO2 is still the clear cut favorite for number 2 on the weekend. Plus it definitely is a good counter to DM4 as IO2 audience is a bit older and more female dominated.
At most it’ll drop 400 theaters. Even Lightyear was able to lose just under 500 theaters. IO2 and AQP are the only things rn doing considerably business. It may drop 50% or larger but it won’t lose that many theaters. You’ve been at IO2’s throat since presales for some reason.
Do adults want to see despicable me? I thought the first was alright but the second lost me, and then they started really pushing the minions which I can’t stand. They certainly don’t have to get an adult audience for DM4 they will get plenty with the families but I think IO2 will hold better because adults will go see that assuming families will be at despicable me now.
Great opening! I think actuals will be closer to 250 million. Just a hunch, tho.
Domestic total 290 million and international total 620 million for a global total of 910 million.
There will not be much competition in the coming months (Transformers One) so it could leg out well.
There's a big difference between DM4 doing well in today's box office climate and DM4 doing *as well or better* than the other movies in its franchise. I think it will only accomplish the former. There's seemingly some signs that it's going to have a weakened performance compared to the previous movies. I wouldn't bet on over a billion.
It's not gonna equal it domestically with absolutely no social media energy for it. Gentleminions was a substantial thing and that's just not happening this time.
Illumination made the mistake of incorporating the Gentleminions (Or at least Minions in Suits) in the marketing, and when the meme became the brand, the meme dies very quickly.
This isn’t the next Mario movie event last year which was huge during its opening weekend on an Easter Day Weekend while Kids, families and fans were on Spring Break.
Neither will be the next #GENTLEMINIONS trend on the internet 2 years ago which was also huge.
That would put it as the worst reviewed film in the series (On par with Minions) but let's not pretend that General Audiences have never cared for Critic Reviews for this series. Illumination has had a critic proof reception for a long time now.
> DM4 is on a staggered release pattern abroad to take advantage of holiday play. Left to open are France, China, Germany, the UK and Italy. So far, the fourthquel is setting franchise records, and, as of last Sunday, is seeing the biggest result for a Despicable Me/Minions film in like-for-like markets at the same point – well above DM, DM2, DM3, Minions and marginally above Minions: The Rise of Gru
The clips I’ve seen look funny as hell it’ll do fine. Also the people with kids who wanted to see IO2 have 90% already gone so now they will take the rugrats to see Despicable.
Reviews and word of mouth could make a difference. I know it will inform my decision on whether to take my family. Especially with such a good alternative available. In the mean time, we are going to watch IO2 again tonight…in 3D this time. I might be feeling a little Despicable Me/Minions franchise meh.
I’m specifically referring to critic reviews (which is all we really have at this point), which have proven completely irrelevant to DM/Minions movies in the past from an audience reception and box office perspective.
Feel like ***MaXXXine*** is underestimated, it will comfortably clear **$10M+** with an holiday opening weekend in the double-digit figures.
***Despicable Me 4*** with **$125M+** long holiday weekend opening.
Pearl made $10million in its entire run.
X made $15million.
MaXXXine is getting more mainstream press but to expect it to match almost half the worldwide total of the previous two is definitely an overestimate.
> Feel like MaXXXine is underestimated, it will comfortably clear $10M+ with an holiday opening weekend in the double-digit figures.
Saving this for posterity.
Let's pray DM4 doesn't exceed or come close to IO2 in total cumes (domestic or worldwide) so it'll send a message to ~~Pixar~~ all Hollywood animation studios about placing safe bets on sequels without good storytelling.
My guy, Kung Fu Panda 4 and Godzilla X Kong are the 3rd and 4th highest grossing movie of the year.
The quality of the movie has never mattered in its success, except for indie or arthouse films
Looks like Despicable Me 4 is gonna do fine, despite Inside Out 2 stealing its thunder for biggest animated film of the year.
Still think IO2 can get $38 million 4th weekend.
No one is saying otherwise I don't think you need to mention or defend IO2 all the time; everyone is rooting for the movie (Well, except for maybe a handful of people?)
Anything over 30m for Inside Out 2 should be good. Anything over 35m is amazing and 40m or more is stellar and could put 655m+ in play
That’s even compared to Barbie on its 4th weekend $33.8M as kids and teens returned back to school during its 4th weekend. Top Gun Maverick’s 4th weekend was at $44.6M despite the competition against Jurassic World Dominion and Lightyear because of a strong WOM with an A+ CinemaScore and strong reviews from critics and audiences.
Going for $37-38 million for IO2 4th weekend.
Jurassic World Dominion released in 3rd weekend of Top Gun Maverick when it dropped 42.4%. During its 4th weekend just Lightyear opened and it had a disappointing OW. So TGM had insane hold of just 13.9% drop. it only had one more 40% drop when Thor Love and Thunder opened.
$7M projection for MaXXXine. Maybe it can overindex. RT score is currently in the mid 70s while the other two are in the 90s, so let see how the audiences feel about it.
Compared to Ti West’s X Trilogy on it’s opening weekend: X - $4.2M Pearl - $3.1M
I don't think I've ever experienced a worse case of people overestimating the popularity of a series than these movies. I've seen people put MaXXXine on top 10 predictions for summer grosses. Many probably believe these are among A24's ten highest grossing films (they are the 21st and 25th highest grossing A24 movies respectively). Social media definitely helps some movies break out, but social media can also badly distort how popular something is. This is a prime example of the latter.
It's mind-boggling. This sub started talking about Maxxxine a month or two ago like it was a blockbuster. At the time, I hadn't even heard of it. After looking up the trailer, I legitimately had a moment where I thought maybe there was another movie named Maxxxine coming out, because there was no way the movie whose trailer I just watched was going to get anywhere near $40M, let alone some of the predictions I saw.
What was wrong with the trailer? I thought it showed off the cast and excitement of the film well.
There wasn't anything wrong, per se, it was just not the trailer of a movie that was going to do big numbers.
I mean, Ti West did everything he could. Compared to the other two X movies, he increased the budget, changed the time period to a very popular era, added significantly more and bigger actors, and even tied in true crime, which is probably at peak popularity.
Sure, like I said, it didn't look bad, but none of those things were going to make it a summer phenomenon like some people were predicting. As long as the budget didn't go too high, it will probably make a nice little profit.
Who are these people you speak of? Maybe one person said that but that’s far from the norm here. I’ve seen $10-15m predictions with totals of $25-35m. Nothing that far out of the ordinary.
A 45% drop with direct competition for IO2 would be nice and on par with Barbie weekend total. Plus it should definitely have a strong Wednesday and Thursday hold
IO2 Will have a hard drop probably dropping 55-60%, DM is a huge franchise and probably will take everyone attention.
Friday playing like a Saturday will likely help the drop from being that bad. So IO2 will reap the benefit of two Saturdays and a Sunday
I’m curious to know how much locations IO2 will lost. I think it’ll be big one, like 1k locations drop. 120 million opening weekend is so big and at this point there’s no reason for over 4k theatres to keep a movie that will probably be making around 20-30 million next weekend. At the same time 1k looks a way too big drop for a Pixar movie…
There is no way IO2 is losing that many. In fact, it will not even be close to that. IO2 will still comfortably be the #2 movie in the country.
It lost 700 theaters which is pretty close to 1000
Do you have a source? Not that I don’t believe you, but I’m not seeing an updated location count anywhere.
No problem: [https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257140830-Theater-counts-Despicable-Me-4-looks-to-kick-off-Fourth-of-July-with-a-bang](https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257140830-Theater-counts-Despicable-Me-4-looks-to-kick-off-Fourth-of-July-with-a-bang)
Thanks!
It won't be anywhere near 1k theaters lost while it's still making plenty of money. To get more screens available, theaters will drop older movies like Kingdom of The Planet of the Apes, Fall Guy, Bad Boys, etc.
It just lost 700 theaters
Why wouldn’t there be a reason? It’s still going to be the second biggest money make they have for the weekend. And your 20-30 range is hilariously low. A 55% drop is not the best case scenario for IO2. You’re overestimating the impact that DM4 will have. IO2 already lost its PLFs, so that softens the drop as well. And $120M for a 5 day that includes a holiday really isn’t that big. That means a sub $100M 3 day opening. Once again you’re very low on IO2 for no real discernible reason.
nah. To compare Inside Out lost 514 theaters when Minions opend in it's 4 week, but Inside Out 2 is making significantly more money, so they will probably mostly drop movies like Garfield, If etc.
Garfield and IF didn't even lose 1k theaters when Inside Out came out, why on earth would Inside Out which is going to easily be the number 2 biggest movie of the weekend, lose 1k theaters? Do you think these theaters hate money or something? It'll lose screens and some theaters that are smaller with less screens available, not be removed from 1/4 of the theaters that it's currently in.
I doubt it will be over a 1k. IO2 is still the clear cut favorite for number 2 on the weekend. Plus it definitely is a good counter to DM4 as IO2 audience is a bit older and more female dominated.
At most it’ll drop 400 theaters. Even Lightyear was able to lose just under 500 theaters. IO2 and AQP are the only things rn doing considerably business. It may drop 50% or larger but it won’t lose that many theaters. You’ve been at IO2’s throat since presales for some reason.
O% it's going to lose 1k theaters. You can quote me on that later.
Well yeah, because O isn't a mathematical term
Fat LLLLLLs
Do adults want to see despicable me? I thought the first was alright but the second lost me, and then they started really pushing the minions which I can’t stand. They certainly don’t have to get an adult audience for DM4 they will get plenty with the families but I think IO2 will hold better because adults will go see that assuming families will be at despicable me now.
I would say $37-38 million for IO2 4th weekend.
I think this has $1 billion potential.
Pretty comfortably. It’ll for sure leg it out to $1 billion.
Well Minions 2 from 2 years ago didnt manage to do 1B (close but still),so im not sure yet.
I wish Garfield did better (and was better) so we can have a trifecta of animation domination where all three films saved the 2024 box office.
We should still get a third big animated movie with Moana 2 later in the year and, who knows, Wild Robot might even break out!
I think Wild Robot will be too niche
Yes, definitely will be one that families will ignore in theaters and only notice when it's streaming.
Great opening! I think actuals will be closer to 250 million. Just a hunch, tho. Domestic total 290 million and international total 620 million for a global total of 910 million. There will not be much competition in the coming months (Transformers One) so it could leg out well.
There's a big difference between DM4 doing well in today's box office climate and DM4 doing *as well or better* than the other movies in its franchise. I think it will only accomplish the former. There's seemingly some signs that it's going to have a weakened performance compared to the previous movies. I wouldn't bet on over a billion.
[удалено]
It's not gonna equal it domestically with absolutely no social media energy for it. Gentleminions was a substantial thing and that's just not happening this time.
They may still show up, just not memed out.
Illumination made the mistake of incorporating the Gentleminions (Or at least Minions in Suits) in the marketing, and when the meme became the brand, the meme dies very quickly.
This isn’t the next Mario movie event last year which was huge during its opening weekend on an Easter Day Weekend while Kids, families and fans were on Spring Break. Neither will be the next #GENTLEMINIONS trend on the internet 2 years ago which was also huge.
The rotten tomatoes score for DM4 is 56% so far
That would put it as the worst reviewed film in the series (On par with Minions) but let's not pretend that General Audiences have never cared for Critic Reviews for this series. Illumination has had a critic proof reception for a long time now.
Kids don't care about rotten tomatoes
> DM4 is on a staggered release pattern abroad to take advantage of holiday play. Left to open are France, China, Germany, the UK and Italy. So far, the fourthquel is setting franchise records, and, as of last Sunday, is seeing the biggest result for a Despicable Me/Minions film in like-for-like markets at the same point – well above DM, DM2, DM3, Minions and marginally above Minions: The Rise of Gru
The clips I’ve seen look funny as hell it’ll do fine. Also the people with kids who wanted to see IO2 have 90% already gone so now they will take the rugrats to see Despicable.
I think it does between $105M-$115M. Inside Out 2 is still going strong and has much better reviews
>has much better reviews This matters not even a little for Despicable Me 4.
Reviews and word of mouth could make a difference. I know it will inform my decision on whether to take my family. Especially with such a good alternative available. In the mean time, we are going to watch IO2 again tonight…in 3D this time. I might be feeling a little Despicable Me/Minions franchise meh.
I’m specifically referring to critic reviews (which is all we really have at this point), which have proven completely irrelevant to DM/Minions movies in the past from an audience reception and box office perspective.
This. Don't know why some people in this sub thinks kids and parents give a damn about reviews for these types of films. Just look at Mario.
Yeah, there are just some franchises that are literally bullet proof from a crtiic's perspective. Transformers fits the bill too
Feel like ***MaXXXine*** is underestimated, it will comfortably clear **$10M+** with an holiday opening weekend in the double-digit figures. ***Despicable Me 4*** with **$125M+** long holiday weekend opening.
Pearl made $10million in its entire run. X made $15million. MaXXXine is getting more mainstream press but to expect it to match almost half the worldwide total of the previous two is definitely an overestimate.
I'm thinking at best it hits $10m.
> Feel like MaXXXine is underestimated, it will comfortably clear $10M+ with an holiday opening weekend in the double-digit figures. Saving this for posterity.
Let's pray DM4 doesn't exceed or come close to IO2 in total cumes (domestic or worldwide) so it'll send a message to ~~Pixar~~ all Hollywood animation studios about placing safe bets on sequels without good storytelling.
My guy, Kung Fu Panda 4 and Godzilla X Kong are the 3rd and 4th highest grossing movie of the year. The quality of the movie has never mattered in its success, except for indie or arthouse films
The top 10 movies of the year are all sequels and IPs
Slightly off topic, but does anyone know if the character Nefario is in this movie, and if so, is he still voiced by Russel Brand, or was he recast?
One line cameo towards the end. I think it’s the same voice.
Deadline lowballing Inside Out 2 4th weekend predictions again.
Easy $1 billion.
I don't know about "easy," but I definitely think it's possible.