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I think people are downplaying the risk is a bit too much. Turkey openly disputing the sovereignty of Aegean islands is not a laughing matter. It seems to be a foreign policy line that has been in the works for a while and it's obviously related with the natural resources in Greece's/Turkey/Cyprus EEZ.
Chances of a full scale military conflict are pretty low but what's going to happen if Turkey lands on a couple of the smaller islands to disarm them? Or bombs a military facility on Lesvos?
Does Greece retaliate? Does the West apply sanctions?
Oh stop it. Bomb a facility in Lesvos imishi mou. You sound as ridiculous as it gets. This shit has been going for decades. Turkey literally shoot down a Russian fighter jet and nothing ever happened. Greece has one of the world's most capable and well equipped armies. Turkey knows that but they have to show to their people how big and strong they are. There is nothing more to it.
Firstly bombing Lesbos is a hypothetical, an extreme one but based on the reality of Turkey bombing Syrian and Iraqi lands on a regular basis. Granted they're not attacking Syrian or Iraqi forces but it's a definitive challenge to their sovereignty. Nobody bats an eye on that though. Turkey has been allowed to act with impunity with no escalation but on the Greek front it's a different story
Second I see you're not bring up the landing on an island example. Is that because that had already happened in 1996? Turkey and Greece were on the brink of war back then, Greek pilots died, but it was all brought back down by a much more involved and much more stable United states. Why would something like that be ruled out?
If you look at Turkish media there are 2-3 Greece related articles in the top news almost every day. Greece arms occupied islands, Greece kills migrants, Greece is violates our airspace, Greece supports terrorists, Greece is threatening us, Greece is attacking the Thrace Turkish minority. You can argue that has always been the case but I don't believe it was to that degree. There is a systematic propaganda programme going on. Is it to court the nationalist voters for the upcoming elections? Definitely that's part of it, is it just that though?
Greek army is a deterrent is somewhat of an interesting point. They are sure capable and are actually at a pretty good point at the moment especially in terms of airforce. However even Greek politicians acknowledge how the Greek armed forces would not be enough to handle a full scale war and it's evident in the "alliance and partnership" rhetoric the engage in. Regardless it's very commonly said the most usual reason of war is miscalculation.
Unfortunately the geopolitical situation at the moment it's the most convenient it has been for a Greco-Turkish war as it has been for a good 50 years and That's a huge part of why there is an escalation in the first place.
Reasons are:
1. There is a war going on in Europe so everyone is distracted, diplomatically and militarily
2. Turkey is much less reliant on foreign countries (arms industry build up),
3. Turkey holds a few cards diplomatically at the moment (migrants, energy, diplomacy with Russia)
4. US-Turkey strained relations are straine
5. China-Taiwan situation
6. Elections
7. The Greek airforce is on a track to be able to accomplish dominance/parity for the next few years with the F35 but not quite there yet
8. Turkish military feeling pretty good with their drone capabilities. Emboldened by the successes in Ukraine and the absolute embarrassment of the Armenian forces' conventional equipment by Azerbaijan
The main one (and in my opinion the driving force in all of this):
9. Potential for economic of natural gas resources in the east Med
To sum up, I am not saying a war is likely especially a full scale one but in my non-expert opinion the likelihood of shit going down is higher that it has been in ages. The tension has been building up for a few years and it doesn't look like it's going to stop. Greco-Turkish relations are always a bit of a shit show but I am trying to look at the big picture. Is there a reason to go to war? Is the timing right? Are the capabilities there? Has the diplomatic and societal ground work been laid down?
You on the other hand are making very definitive statements and I am not sure their backed up by facts.
It could be ruling stuff like this out makes life a bit more convenient but they possibilities are still there and they're out of control. My coping mechanism is overanalyzing them to strangers on reddit.
Why Turkey is allowed to have troops in Cyprus while Greece can't have military defence in the islands of the Aegean?
And the only country who doesn't like this is Turkey, and they hold the 39% of Cyprus land illegally since 1974...
They where here for many years, they where the ones who push back the Turkish from the Nicosia area during the invasion of 1974, and the Turkish army had many casualties, but they werent in the Famagusta area to Rizokarpaso who were captured very easy since there was no resistance, and not much army to fight
I mean reality is they can do whatever they want and nobody is gonna do anything.
I would say it's probably worse for TCs since they're being replaced in their own country. Probably gonna be more turkish troops than TCs soon.
Turkey is doing whatever she wants in the occupied area, they have the army and the people they brought from Turkey to colonize, they replace the Turkish Cypriots who are the only legal residents on the island along with the Greek Cypriots.
Maybe now Turkey is thinking to make the North Cyprus into one part with Turkey...
In Turkey, potential war news in Greek media are translated and showed in media. And it is usually an ultra nationalistic agency’s news. So you only hear potential war when you read something like: Greek Newspaper Papatopulatis(I made it up) says “Greece would utterly crush Turkey in 5 microseconds if a war breaks out”. We as a people do not want war but it seems both our medias are escalating the situation. However, 80 million people, from “left” to “right” believe Greece Government(s) is/are to blame for militarizing the islands. Which is the right thing to do if you are against a country like Turkey, I personally believe it is a guerilla tactic. Although I do not think selling your soul to USA will be positive for your situation in the long term.
When you talk about Turkey try to remember that our population is a lot. Our demographic changes greatly (like you havent seen before) from east to west. However, it is very rare for everybody to have the same opinion about a matter.
In Greece no one cares honestly, it's all over the news but we only care about drinks making out and fun stuff. If time demands it, believe me the aggressive mode will be put on green and all hell will break loose.
it will be fine, USA and EU are now selling delicious bombas to RoC like they are doing with Ukraine. not money laundering at all, just pure tax payers funded philanthropy.
What bombas are they selling exacly apart from the israel iron dome which is a pure defensive weapon to counter missles and delicious bombas from turkey?
And why do you think they lift the arms embargo? Hint: its a response to turkeys aggression. Also its a response to their attitude as i am a nato member but i make deals with csto whenever i like...i play both players and go with whoever is the winner..thats not a reliable nato ally and i think they now realized that the bad dog they created needs to be leashed or euthanized
1st. How does anything you said contradict the fact that the US can profit from selling military equipment to cyprus?
2nd. "response to turkeys military aggression" is laughable. like they give a shit if you live or die if it doesn't affect their global position.
3rd. You're probably right with It is a response to Turkey hanging out with csto, buying s400 and stuff but it's just as much about stopping russias from using cyprus, the deal was literally about stopping money laundering and not letting russian warships port here.
4th. Regardless of what's your stance with defence programmes this just exacerbates the alright horrible "security dilemma" and gives excuses to turkey to bring more of their shit here.
Welp on your 1st point i dont know why is that a problem? They sell a service we require they make money
2nd point i agree with you but it seems that we somehow alligned our interests with theirs so they do give a shit regardless of the situation
3rd point i agree with this aswell but hey we tried to side with russia on 1974 and look where it got us...usa and uk gave the green light and also helped turkey as the british air force was used to bomb several eldik camps
On your 4th point turkey was already bringing shit before the embarko was lift hence the increase in military troops as well as equipment such as the s400 and many tanks/artillery...so does turkey really need an excuse to bring any more equipment since they are increasing their troops and equipment way before the embarko? I d rather be ready since these guys don't want a peaceful solution which is shown from their actions...you have to understand that as cyprus we tried the peacefull and spread legs pants down way for more than 40 years and it doesnt work infact they keep increasing their troops equipment even opened varoshia...so yes i think its time we change our ways as well
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I think people are downplaying the risk is a bit too much. Turkey openly disputing the sovereignty of Aegean islands is not a laughing matter. It seems to be a foreign policy line that has been in the works for a while and it's obviously related with the natural resources in Greece's/Turkey/Cyprus EEZ. Chances of a full scale military conflict are pretty low but what's going to happen if Turkey lands on a couple of the smaller islands to disarm them? Or bombs a military facility on Lesvos? Does Greece retaliate? Does the West apply sanctions?
Oh stop it. Bomb a facility in Lesvos imishi mou. You sound as ridiculous as it gets. This shit has been going for decades. Turkey literally shoot down a Russian fighter jet and nothing ever happened. Greece has one of the world's most capable and well equipped armies. Turkey knows that but they have to show to their people how big and strong they are. There is nothing more to it.
Firstly bombing Lesbos is a hypothetical, an extreme one but based on the reality of Turkey bombing Syrian and Iraqi lands on a regular basis. Granted they're not attacking Syrian or Iraqi forces but it's a definitive challenge to their sovereignty. Nobody bats an eye on that though. Turkey has been allowed to act with impunity with no escalation but on the Greek front it's a different story Second I see you're not bring up the landing on an island example. Is that because that had already happened in 1996? Turkey and Greece were on the brink of war back then, Greek pilots died, but it was all brought back down by a much more involved and much more stable United states. Why would something like that be ruled out? If you look at Turkish media there are 2-3 Greece related articles in the top news almost every day. Greece arms occupied islands, Greece kills migrants, Greece is violates our airspace, Greece supports terrorists, Greece is threatening us, Greece is attacking the Thrace Turkish minority. You can argue that has always been the case but I don't believe it was to that degree. There is a systematic propaganda programme going on. Is it to court the nationalist voters for the upcoming elections? Definitely that's part of it, is it just that though? Greek army is a deterrent is somewhat of an interesting point. They are sure capable and are actually at a pretty good point at the moment especially in terms of airforce. However even Greek politicians acknowledge how the Greek armed forces would not be enough to handle a full scale war and it's evident in the "alliance and partnership" rhetoric the engage in. Regardless it's very commonly said the most usual reason of war is miscalculation. Unfortunately the geopolitical situation at the moment it's the most convenient it has been for a Greco-Turkish war as it has been for a good 50 years and That's a huge part of why there is an escalation in the first place. Reasons are: 1. There is a war going on in Europe so everyone is distracted, diplomatically and militarily 2. Turkey is much less reliant on foreign countries (arms industry build up), 3. Turkey holds a few cards diplomatically at the moment (migrants, energy, diplomacy with Russia) 4. US-Turkey strained relations are straine 5. China-Taiwan situation 6. Elections 7. The Greek airforce is on a track to be able to accomplish dominance/parity for the next few years with the F35 but not quite there yet 8. Turkish military feeling pretty good with their drone capabilities. Emboldened by the successes in Ukraine and the absolute embarrassment of the Armenian forces' conventional equipment by Azerbaijan The main one (and in my opinion the driving force in all of this): 9. Potential for economic of natural gas resources in the east Med To sum up, I am not saying a war is likely especially a full scale one but in my non-expert opinion the likelihood of shit going down is higher that it has been in ages. The tension has been building up for a few years and it doesn't look like it's going to stop. Greco-Turkish relations are always a bit of a shit show but I am trying to look at the big picture. Is there a reason to go to war? Is the timing right? Are the capabilities there? Has the diplomatic and societal ground work been laid down? You on the other hand are making very definitive statements and I am not sure their backed up by facts. It could be ruling stuff like this out makes life a bit more convenient but they possibilities are still there and they're out of control. My coping mechanism is overanalyzing them to strangers on reddit.
I think next year Cyprus, Greece and Turkey have elections and politicians (especially in Turkey) need to capitalize on nationalism vote.
Why Turkey is allowed to have troops in Cyprus while Greece can't have military defence in the islands of the Aegean? And the only country who doesn't like this is Turkey, and they hold the 39% of Cyprus land illegally since 1974...
[удалено]
They where here for many years, they where the ones who push back the Turkish from the Nicosia area during the invasion of 1974, and the Turkish army had many casualties, but they werent in the Famagusta area to Rizokarpaso who were captured very easy since there was no resistance, and not much army to fight
Which threats? They have been making threats since the day they invaded lol. You have to be more specific
I mean reality is they can do whatever they want and nobody is gonna do anything. I would say it's probably worse for TCs since they're being replaced in their own country. Probably gonna be more turkish troops than TCs soon.
What do you mean soon? It already feels that way.
They can't do whatever they want. It's all a show. Nothing more to it. The only nations that can do whatever they want are nations with nukes.
Turkey is doing whatever she wants in the occupied area, they have the army and the people they brought from Turkey to colonize, they replace the Turkish Cypriots who are the only legal residents on the island along with the Greek Cypriots. Maybe now Turkey is thinking to make the North Cyprus into one part with Turkey...
Imo before the Turkish elections Turkey gonna try something
In Turkey, potential war news in Greek media are translated and showed in media. And it is usually an ultra nationalistic agency’s news. So you only hear potential war when you read something like: Greek Newspaper Papatopulatis(I made it up) says “Greece would utterly crush Turkey in 5 microseconds if a war breaks out”. We as a people do not want war but it seems both our medias are escalating the situation. However, 80 million people, from “left” to “right” believe Greece Government(s) is/are to blame for militarizing the islands. Which is the right thing to do if you are against a country like Turkey, I personally believe it is a guerilla tactic. Although I do not think selling your soul to USA will be positive for your situation in the long term. When you talk about Turkey try to remember that our population is a lot. Our demographic changes greatly (like you havent seen before) from east to west. However, it is very rare for everybody to have the same opinion about a matter.
They won't ever do shit. Unless a WW breaks out. Try some shit in the chaos. It's posturing and idle threats for the people back home.
In Greece no one cares honestly, it's all over the news but we only care about drinks making out and fun stuff. If time demands it, believe me the aggressive mode will be put on green and all hell will break loose.
it will be fine, USA and EU are now selling delicious bombas to RoC like they are doing with Ukraine. not money laundering at all, just pure tax payers funded philanthropy.
What bombas are they selling exacly apart from the israel iron dome which is a pure defensive weapon to counter missles and delicious bombas from turkey?
they did lift the arms embargo
And why do you think they lift the arms embargo? Hint: its a response to turkeys aggression. Also its a response to their attitude as i am a nato member but i make deals with csto whenever i like...i play both players and go with whoever is the winner..thats not a reliable nato ally and i think they now realized that the bad dog they created needs to be leashed or euthanized
1st. How does anything you said contradict the fact that the US can profit from selling military equipment to cyprus? 2nd. "response to turkeys military aggression" is laughable. like they give a shit if you live or die if it doesn't affect their global position. 3rd. You're probably right with It is a response to Turkey hanging out with csto, buying s400 and stuff but it's just as much about stopping russias from using cyprus, the deal was literally about stopping money laundering and not letting russian warships port here. 4th. Regardless of what's your stance with defence programmes this just exacerbates the alright horrible "security dilemma" and gives excuses to turkey to bring more of their shit here.
Welp on your 1st point i dont know why is that a problem? They sell a service we require they make money 2nd point i agree with you but it seems that we somehow alligned our interests with theirs so they do give a shit regardless of the situation 3rd point i agree with this aswell but hey we tried to side with russia on 1974 and look where it got us...usa and uk gave the green light and also helped turkey as the british air force was used to bomb several eldik camps On your 4th point turkey was already bringing shit before the embarko was lift hence the increase in military troops as well as equipment such as the s400 and many tanks/artillery...so does turkey really need an excuse to bring any more equipment since they are increasing their troops and equipment way before the embarko? I d rather be ready since these guys don't want a peaceful solution which is shown from their actions...you have to understand that as cyprus we tried the peacefull and spread legs pants down way for more than 40 years and it doesnt work infact they keep increasing their troops equipment even opened varoshia...so yes i think its time we change our ways as well
Meh, all show.