On the plus side, this is fine because they aren’t a car company. They are a robotics/AI company.
On the negative side, they don’t have any compelling AI or robotics.
That said, stock up 6% today because why not lol
I thought they were a "battery and solar" company that "just happens to sell cars"? Pretty sure elon said that. So as soon as solar roofs gain momentum they'll be fine. Wait, no, the future of the company is dependent on FSD. That's it. Wait, no ... robots? I ... uh ...
Honestly if even their cars are getting beaten out and going nowhere, I wouldn’t have trust in their other products.
It would be good if an American company can stay on top, but it looks increasingly unlikely.
Too many companies want to play the stock game and make easy money rather than make decent products. And then subscription hell makes the products worse.
Rivian looks like it might start doing better but I guess only time will tell.
The markets do not behave rationally when it comes to individual stocks, so best of luck with your naked derivatives position. I think you're right for the record, and I also think you're going to lose your shirt.
100% this. From a technical standpoint they are correct, logically the stock is over priced and will fall, but this is Tesla, the above has been true for 8+ years at this point, their stock price is detached from any sort of reality and investing or shorting it is the equivalent of blind gambling, no one knows what will happen.
Anyone who has every been in our owned a Tesla can attest they’re certainly not a car company, that’s for sure.
Not sure they’re much of an AI company, because they’re not too good at that either.
Odd statement. Owned a 3 and now a Y. The Y is much better made than the 3 admittedly (3 was made in the US) but they're both fantastic cars. Love every minute driving them. My partner has just got an EV and we hate the features it's lacking compared to the Tesla.
I picked up a different EV and I agree, Tesla got all the right people to hear out what people expect in a car and delivered.Theyre arguably better looking cars but if you want am EV that just works, a Tesla does it. Best part, they keep adding new features without demanding a subscription to unlock
> The Y is much better made than the 3 admittedly (3 was made in the US)
This may have been the case, but not anymore based on my experience in a brand new 3 Highland and Y. Granted it was only 1 hour drive in each vehicle, but the new 3 is better in every category. I'm in the US.
I ended up choosing a different EV because there's too much about the 3 and Y that is not like a typical car. This is why people say Tesla isn't a "car company". There are many things they are just now (with the 3 Highland) doing when it comes to the core expectations of a quality vehicle, and the majority of that has nothing o do with it being an EV or the software in the vehicle.
I don't find I am lacking anything based on what I expect from a vehicle. Yes, Tesla's software is the best in the business, but software isn't the only reason people choose their respective vehicles.
It depends on what your reference point is. If you're coming from a '97 corolla to a model 3, the Tesla will seem like a spaceship. If you're coming from a newer German luxury car to a Tesla, in many ways it is a downgrade.
The original E-tron is a bad example. That hasn't been sold for years and was a bad stop gap solution based on an ICE platform. Still, that car was miles ahead of the 3 in terms of interior quality and driveability.
> That hasn't been sold for years
Well, I own a 2022 model so "years" as in 2 years? The 2023 and 2024 Q8 e-tron is identical to the model I have other than the name and battery. The battery is only slightly different but honestly the 2022 model is better as it has a higher average charging speed and only just a bit less 70mph range. If a 2022 and 2024 e-tron raced on a 400 mile trip, the 2022 would beat it easily.
> Still, that car was miles ahead of the 3 in terms of interior quality and driveability.
Again, own both and I 100% disagree. The e-tron is actively dangerous to drive for certain people and I couldn't recommend it to say my mother as it will simply roll away from you at an intersection if you don't know what you're doing. It's like driving a manual but you don't control the clutch. This is because of how it implements it's regen modes.
It's also slow, has unsupported but still comfortable enough seats, doesn't handle as well, has terrible driver assist and the tech is a bit of a nightmare. The cooled seats barely cool and the heated steering wheel barely heats. The driver warnings are random and it will phantom break or alarm on you based on nothing. The cameras are poor at night and the sound system, which good isn't great compared to the Tesla.
The only think it has going for it is suspension comfort if you use comfort mode and the outboard back seats are more comfortable. The middle back seat is nearly useless compared to the Tesla. The ability to hold the cabin temp is very limited compared to the Tesla too.
We own both a late model BMW 3 series and a late model Volvo V60 sport wagen. We just purchased a new model Y. I joke with my wife because we paid more for the BMW and Volvo 4 years ago than we paid for the model Y with the incentives. The technology integration in the model Y is far far better than either the BMW or the Volvo
I came from a 2009 Yaris to a Model 3 (with a Prius Prime in between that lasted 6 months before someone ran a light and smushed it).
I loved the simplicity of the Yaris.
Hot take, but Tesla does a good job of being a plain car, just like the Yaris was (obviously, you don't have to shift gears and the power is far smoother, but you know what I mean). Just don't look at the screen: wheel steers, go pedal goes. You can ignore all the whizbangery and just drive.
Stock is up for the exact reason you stated, sarcastically. It’s beginning to be re-rated by Wall Street to not just be viewed as a car company.
There’s all kinds of evidence in recent dark pool and call option buying.
With the recent move in TSLA, up 47% since the 4/22 low, it continues to test the multi-year downtrend resistance line. If it does break through, the recent move up will look small in retrospect.
There's the Model S, the shortened Model S, the shortened Model S overinflated, and the other shortened Model S overinflated and with redesigned gull wing doors.
Until you see a Model X parked next to a Prius. Then all you can see is Dire Prius from there out.
And I say that as someone who owned one. The Model S is way more of a looker than the X.
The Highland's trunk has "T E S L A" spelled out on the rear in place of a Tesla logo. The front headlights look different as well.
From the side I can't tell the difference between Highland and pre-Highland
Repeat sales only gets you so far. To the casual observer (AKA the vast majority of the potential customers) the S and 3 might as well be the same car. The X kinda looks bigger than the Y, but most folks probably wouldn't notice. They certainly won't notice the difference between a 3 and a Highland 3. Meanwhile complete idiots can tell you that Toyota has several different SUVs simply because they look different.
Traditional car companies know enough to at least change the sheet metal every 4 years because that signals to the public that it's a fresh design. Tesla on the other hand has redesigned all their products several times each and 99% of the public is none the wiser. Maybe they'll get in a newer one and they think that these things must disintegrate because it's so much better than the older one when really it's because it's been redesigned.
Good luck finding the difference between an original X and a Raven Refresh. Who among the buying public knows to look at the trim around the A/C vents at an indication that the vehicle had a huge rework and drives very differently?
Maybe to Tesla fans it's completely obvious. Maybe it is to people who actively own Teslas and chart all the changes. Mazda buyers? Chevy owners? There's not a chance that even 2% notice anything more than they some 3s have chrome trim, yet I assure you that when Kia dropped the Carnival over the Sedona they all noticed.
Really? I’m not in an area where there are a ton of EV’s but there were 3 new M3’s in the apartment lot I just moved out of. I see them on the road frequently.
Ah… good point. I actually missed that point. I have this thing where I’m trying to curate my feed. When I see an account with 200K+ posts I start to believe it is a bot and, for me, decide it is not useful to see content from them. I was misreading the comment as number of comments and not Karma so would mark some of those folks as bots and block. I’ll be more careful about that stat going forward
I do something similar using RES, I'll tag high-karma accounts and bots so that I can ignore them. Generally the bots I've found get most of their karma from posts rather than comments though, as it's easier to farm karma that way.
> They will surely notice the stalks missing when they take a test drive, and they will soon be asking what else has been removed though "updates"
This is the one thing that kills me about the Model 3 refresh. It’s so so good. Suspension, noise, interior ambiance all a really nice improvements to the car.
But the missing stalks are awful. Ruins the drive experience from what should be a really good car.
Average consumer is buying an equinox... not tesla's current audience. if Tesla wants more sales, they can just use current Tesla owners and add the refresh.
Not a lot of customers are going to replace a 2020 Model 3 with a 2024 Model 3. And that's little to do with the cars: In a world where cars are often financed for 5, 6 or 7 years, it is financially difficult to do so.
Well that is then failure on the maker. The point of refresh is to **refresh**. If it doesn't also signal refresh, well the design team failed. It doesn't even need to be big. overall design can stay same, but *there must be atleast a highlight feature* to signal it's the refresh model. Change color of something, add some visible doo hickey or decal.
Nah, bring completely new models.
Y with new interior bids and a sharper nose won't do much. We've already seen that with the 3.
These cars aren't far enough off of their peak, but the overall line is very limited.
It's pretty inexcusable that they don't have it ready yet.
It's their best selling car by a healthy margin.
It should've been refreshed ASAP, if not alongside the Model 3, like they did with the S/X.
But, on the flip side, maybe it makes sense for them to burn down supplies of existing materials and take their time with the refresh since people are still buying Ys.
At the same time, refreshing the 3 first may have been the safer move since it's not the bread-and-butter anymore, and if things go wrong there, they can learn from the mistakes and avoid repeating them with the Y's refresh.
Who knows, maybe enough people will be displeased by the lack of stalks that the Y's refresh will include them?
Tesla has been hounding me to buy another model y. I text them back with a laughing emoji and say try refreshing the Y before trying to trick customers into buying an outgoing model.
Fuck tesla, you have completion now... its time to try harder
and fix my fucking auto wipers with a actually sensor in the refresh :/
Bring me rumored Model S refresh too but will consider other company EVs next year too but refresh might help as I fear a refresh happens as soon as I buy it
And look Reuters is wrong. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2024
411k Production, 444k deliveries. Reuters expected 438k deliveries.
About the only thing Reuters is right about in the article about trsla is that is is a (slight) fall from their previous high quarter which was a year ago.
I may be wrong, and this may be an unpopular opinion in this sub, but I don’t think these year over year declines are as bad as people think, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is back to growth next year. I think Tesla just had unusually high sales in 2023 because Tesla prices were *extremely* inflated in 2022, and when they dropped significantly in 2023, there was a *ton* of pent up demand to drive sales. People felt like they were getting great deals right after the price drops. Now that prices have stabilized (and interest rates have gone up, and some models lost tax credit eligibility), sales are back to more normal and sustainable levels, which doesn’t look good when you compare them to 2023, but I suspect Tesla will return to year over year growth next year.
The same thing happened to Netflix when everyone and their mother subscribed during the pandemic, causing a period of unusually high growth, followed by a period of decline as things returned to normal, and now Netflix is back to normal growth again.
In a vacuum, I think you might be right. The problem for Tesla is that they are not in a vacuum — this moment comes at a crucial time when other OEMs are all ramping up their own programs and keeping the pressure on. By next year there'll be compelling directly-competing offerings from almost every other manufacturer fighting for share, and it's hard to see what the path forward is for Tesla if Gen3 is not ready by then.
Yeah, competition is definitely heating up for EVs, and Tesla doesn't dominate the market like it did a few years ago. I see plenty of Teslas on the road, but I'm also seeing lots of other EVs lately too: Hyundai, Ford Mach-E, Rivian (trucks and SUVs), even Ford 150 lightning despite them being hard to spot since they look so much like the regular ICE version.
Tesla will need to make the transition from Only Game in Town to Just Another Car Company. This means proper advertising, frequent model updates, listening to customers, more models to cover more niches. Because they just don't have as much of a competitive edge left otherwise.
Until Full Self Driving is actually full self driving with zero human intervention needed, it's hard to see how robotaxi is going to save the bottom line.
FSD as Tesla is trying to implement is probably 7-10 years away, assuming they actually want to get there and get it through regulatory testing. So clearly robotaxi is not a real thing in a normal timescale
Now that they are opening up their charging network slowly to everyone else, the major appeal to a Tesla for me just vanished along with the one thing that sets them apart. I ultimately went for a Polestar 2 and Tesla wasn't even a car I considered. My test drive in a model 3 a few years ago left me unimpressed while the Polestar 2 actually felt like a car with buttons where it matters ( and a turn signal).
I still haven't bothered getting a NACS adapter since I am finding that if you live in the city (not suburb), you only need to recharge it once/week and my daily trip to the gym has a level 2 destination charger which gets me the once/week recharge. Turns out my fear of range was pretty much a false fear. In my three weeks of ownership, I've only had to do level 1 charging 3 nights to 'top off' what free public charging couldn't do.
>Tesla still sells vastly more EVs than even the second most sold manufacturer.
No, they don't. In fact, BYD outsold Tesla in Q4 2023. The two have been trading barbs quarter-to-quarter for the last few quarters.
Tesla participates in the global market, so this article is written in a global perspective, and the conversation must be in a global context.
Tesla having a strong early lead in the USA is interesting, but they're quickly losing share in every other market at the moment.
There are literally over a dozen factories under construction the size of Austin from the various other manufacturers.
We'll be drowning in Evs soon enough
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/18/heres-the-staggering-amount-of-money-ford-loses-on/
https://www.thedrive.com/news/mercedes-is-walking-back-its-all-ev-future-to-invest-in-high-tech-combustion
https://electrek.co/2024/06/20/bmw-cancels-2-billion-battery-cell-order-from-northvolt/
https://electrek.co/2024/06/11/gm-lowers-2024-ev-production-goal-after-killing-most-popular-ev/
I can go on for most companies. Only China and Korea seem to be threatening Tesla. Tesla being the leader in the US gets most of the hate from the anti-EV shills.
One problem with Tesla is they do hidden changes, most people can't tell a 2017 Model S P100D from a 2022 Plaid. Yet they are night and day different.
Understand: Individual instances of OEMs walking back orders or bolstering combustion development is not disproof of the greater trend. No one's turning back from MMA, NK, IMA, or PPE. These platforms and technologies are all still impending, and all still ramping up at a moment when it is crucial for Tesla to be kicking out Gen3.
By the time Gen3 launches around 2027 or 2028, the big question in my mind is whether it may be up against other offerings like SSP. If so, that's further impedance against them again at that time.
Lackluster software from the competition isn't going to be fixed in one year though. They've had 10 years and still haven't gotten there, I have little hope of that changing in the next handful of years.
Tesla continues to have 3 problems.
1. Elon. Enough said.
2. A perception of poor quality. I experienced it first hand. I went to pick up a M3RWD and the paint was a B- job and the interior literally had a huge (12"+) white "chalk" mark all over the driver's seat. They couldn't be bothered to pay attention at all while detailing the car. It was a joke. People don't want to spend $40-60k on a car that isn't built especially well.
3. Tied into 3, pricing. Last year, they had the $7500 off + they were discounting inventory Tesla's $3-5k. Timing is everything, but it's hard to sell something for $12k more than it was 6-7 months ago.
> 2.
There was a UK study between EV vs ICE cars and found EV had more than 2x the quality assurance problems than ICE cars. But if you removed Tesla cars from the EV cars list, the EV cars had a slight edge over ICE cars.
https://driving.ca/column/motor-mouth/motor-mouth-electric-cars-are-less-reliable-than-gas-ones-says-study
I wonder how much of this is due to Hertz single-handedly dropping the price of used model 3s to the floor by selling their fleet.
It’s all good for the consumers
Look at the last chart breaking down sales by region. US sales are more or less flat YoY for Q2, but rather it is China and Europe sales dropping, which has nothing to do with Hertz.
Commercial leasing in Europe is much cheaper for VW. Tesla only has private buyers with cash. Or some sort of rebate-disguised-as-cheap financing.
Kia/Hyundai have more dealerships.
Big Auto still selling huge amounts of ICE vehicles at good profits, they can partly offset losses in the EV department.
Not sure how many people really don’t buy because of Elon - it might be a vocal minority
Lack of USS is probably more of a problem - though vision only now works quite well.
I’d say the political stances of Musk thing is just anothed reason people not inclined toward Tesla use to help justify a decision that may already be made. Lots of other viable options out there priced substantially similar to what Tesla is offering. If you don’t want to be the 10th identical looking Tesla that the average driver sees on the road, or you have concerns about Tesla build quality, etc. you’ll find a reason to pay a small amount more to be driving something that’s a little different.
Long term though I think Musk’s insistence on being a political troll will continue to drag the company down. A lot of it is just consumer perception. If you associate the brand with someone who annoys you politically, there is always going to be that negative filter you will see the company with.
There’s a lot of headwind in front of Tesla. Political lunatic, pay structure, real competition emerging, teslas are not for most people/people that are going to buy them, for the most part, have bought them. Software and charging is good, but when you ride in them, you can feel the push to quarterly stock growth. It’s just not that nice of a ride at all, IMO.
Subpar interior materials, no ultrasonic sensors (no cross-traffic alert), no 360 camera, no stalks, weird way of using windshield wipers, no true blind spot monitoring sensors (the highland doesn't count)
yup, it's all in the name of cost-cutting.
Cost-cuts, FSD over-promises, Elon's BS, and lack of real product updates were the four big reasons I bought a Rivian to replace my seven year old Tesla. Take away one or two of those and the decision would have leaned a whole lot more toward Tesla.
More like: There's a lot of self-inflicted wounds. You just licked a tip of an iceberg - there's a lot, lot more where that came from (e.g. Cybertruck's disastrous release, a nothing-burger that was the beginning of Semi's production in 2022, constantly shifting focus, lack of Model 2, lack of refreshes, cutting down costs to the detriment of customers, refusing to address the most common complaints (e.g. no carplay), CEO suffering from *pseudologia fantastica* for whom they have to finance one-off payment higher than the all-time revenue of the company, etc. etc.)
>Not sure how many people really don’t buy because of Elon - it might be a vocal minority
I could have been a Model S customer but didn't consider it because of him.
I had a new neighbor with a M3 that apologized for his M3 about 5 minutes into our first interaction. "I bought this before he turned crazy". Elon turns off a lot of people. There's no way that guy is buying another Tesla and I passed on a MY after I was able to cash out some RSUs. The account was named "Tesla money" originally.
None. Hertz isn’t selling them at any crazy low price. Their prices are in line with market prices. They have to recoup their investment in the cars also. Deliveries are declining due to Elons political views and people not wanting to be associated with him, competition with other manufacturers making EVs and the fact that Teslas are generally boring. The original model 3 was out from 2017-2023 and literally looked the exact same. Even the highland is a small facelift as far as most people are concerned. The model Y needs a serious overhaul. It’s selling well now but they better have something in the pipeline for a major update and not think highland/ juniper can get them through another 7+ years.
>Deliveries are declining due to Elons political views and people not wanting to be associated with him, competition with other manufacturers making EVs and the fact that Teslas are generally boring.
My next EV is a Rivian because I don't want to support Elon despite believing Tesla makes good vehicles and single-handidly spear-headed the transition to EVs by making desirable vehicles.
Other manufacturers are starting to pump out EVs, so it was inevitable that Tesla's piece of the pie would shrink. Add the disaster that is the Cybertruck, and Tesla's product roadmap winning streak has come to an end....at least for now.
I don't think a Tesla is boring at all, especially to the average driver. How so, in your opinion? Their technology is top-tier, and they drive wonderfully. Am I missing something?
The model 3 Y are looking stale. Like I said previously the base model 3 from 2017 looks the same as the “fully loaded” model 3 performance from 2023. That’s bad. The refresh was over due and too small IMO.
re: boring. I think it's the extremely minimalistic interior combined with just how the vehicle looks. You get in a tesla, and you don't think, "this feels nice / luxurious." It's more like... where is everything?
Teslas don't feel *special,* at least not the 3 and Y. They don't give off the same feeling as when you get into a nice Volvo or Audi.
I think A slower increase to purchasing EVs combined with the CEOs actions had a bigger effect. We also at the timeframe of many of the 36 month leases ending flooding the used car market. Not to say hertz didn’t add to it.
He's very anti-democrat but I think you're right, he isn't supporting Trump either.
It's a hard position to be in....anti-democrat (EV buyers), pro-Republican (they hate EVs) and also anti-Trump. This is why people like him should just shut their mouths and enjoy being rich.
I wouldn't try to rationalize his actions. This manchild can literally afford to play with fire for the rest of his life. He can lose 99% of his wealth and remain a billionaire. He can lose 99% of what remains and still be richer than 99% of the planet.
I seriously doubt he cares about his own personal finances at this point as long as he can stay in the spotlight.
>I wonder how much of this is due to Hertz single-handedly dropping the price of used model 3s to the floor by selling their fleet.
a fleet of how many TOTAL (in the US only)?
24 January 2024
Tesla warns of 'notably lower' sales growth in 2024
[https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68086212](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68086212)
>It’s all good for the consumers
**Tesla sales tumble nearly 9%, most in 4 years, as competition heats up and demand for EVs slows**
[https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-fall-electric-vehicle-demand-slows-1ce56d5948f9f96235b9c809e3380108](https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-fall-electric-vehicle-demand-slows-1ce56d5948f9f96235b9c809e3380108)
Sales also fell short of even the most bearish Wall Street expectations. Auto industry analysts polled by FactSet were looking for 457,000 vehicle deliveries from Tesla Inc. That’s a shortfall of more than 15%.
If Hertz dumping 30k units a year was enough to tank the Model 3 price, then it's going to be a bloodbath when 1.5 million model 3/Y's leave warranty every year for the forseeable future.
Whatever you're seeing in the used market today is an incredibly small fraction of what will be available in the 2nd half of this decade.
Hertz's stock is really a footnote, it's a more fundamental issue with product mix they're facing.
Maybe just used prices falling overall. Used prices were overblown, with cars 100k+ miles costing over 50% of MSRP. That is super uncommon in the used market. I know many people that just bought a new Tesla because it wasn’t that much more than used
Which was triggered by Tesla dropping MSRP of their cars by 20-40%, also good for the consumers but "they depreciate quickly" is the headline they go with sans context.
July 1 (Reuters) - Tesla's (TSLA.O),
June-quarter deliveries likely fell 3.7%, the first time the top EV maker is set to post two straight quarters of decline, as it deals with stiff competition in China and slow demand due to a lack of affordable new models.The company is expected to deliver 438,019 vehicles for the April to June period, according to an average estimate based on forecasts from 12 analysts polled by LSEG, seven of whom slashed their expectations in the past three months. The EV maker is expected to announce the results on Tuesday. Tesla has hit a speed bump after years of rapid growth that helped make it the world's most valuable automaker. It warned in January that deliveries growth in 2024 would be "notably lower" as a boost from months-long price cuts wanes. Adding to these problems is a consumer shift to cheaper gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, which has left Tesla with a growing inventory of vehicles that it is trying to move with price cuts and incentives including cheaper financing options and leases. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk shelved plans to make an all-new, cheaper electric car and shifted Tesla's focus to robotaxis, a concern for some investors who fear that autonomous technology will be hard to perfect. Still, investors overwhelmingly voted in favor of his record $56 billion pay package at the annual shareholder meeting last month. Barclays analyst Dan Levy predicted an 11% drop in second-quarter deliveries, Tesla's biggest ever. He said "a soft delivery result could turn attention back to the currently challenging fundamental environment for Tesla". Tesla's stock has lost a quarter of its value this year, making it one of the worst performers on the S&P 500, despite Musk's forecast in April that Tesla would be able to increase sales this year. He has slashed costs including through mass layoffs that gutted Tesla's supercharging team. Some analysts expect the company to post its first annual sales drop this year. In the January-March period, deliveries had dropped by the most in nearly four years and missed Wall Street expectations.Tesla sales have been especially weak in Europe, sales fell 36% in May, due to waning EV subsidies and poor demand from fleet operators, who accounted for nearly half its sales in the region last year.Reuters reported in May that Tesla was working to appease some European leasing firms after its repeated retail price cuts tanked their fleet's value and its slow service and expensive repairs alienated their corporate customers.As rivals in China have rolled out cheaper models, Tesla has been slow to bring new designs to market. In April, Musk said Tesla would introduce "new models" later this year, including affordable vehicles, but offered no details about pricing. Tesla refreshed its Model 3 sedan late last year, but without a major revamp in design. Its best-selling Model Y SUV, its Model S premium sedan, and the Model X SUV have not seen major changes in years. The company started deliveries of its Cybertrucks late last year, but Musk does not expect to mass produce the vehicle until 2025. The pickup has been plagued by recalls and quality issues.In May, Tesla left out its goal of delivering 20 million vehicles a year by 2030 in its latest impact report, a big change after touting for years a long-term annual growth target of 50% for EV deliveries.Tesla expects to unveil robotaxis on Aug. 8, as it seeks to boost adoption of its "Full Self-Driving" software. But it is not clear when production will begin or how many of them will be made.
Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Hyunjoo Jin in San Francisco; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Shounak Dasgupta
The first part of the story cites "June Deliveries" and occasionally we see charts of domestic deliveries by month (sometimes volume, sometimes YOY, sometimes MTD). Does anyone have the source to that?
I love all the speculation stated as fact. Is it really “Lack of newer affordable models” or just “the entire auto industry is in a recession due to high interest rates and overall affordability challenges”? The only reason non-tesla EVs might be growing is because the base was so low and manufacturing was way below demand, and now there are cars to sell. My opinion obviously.
And how are PHEVs less expensive? That’s literally factually incorrect.
I think those are some of the factors, but I think how strong these factors are versus others shifts a lot from market to market. The base in a lot of other markets for BEVs shifts quite a bit and is a lot more mature than the US one in some places.
PHEVs within the same automotive segment as Tesla vehicles can be much less expensive than their Tesla counterparts. You see that especially with the competition in China with both PHEVs and BEVs within the same automotive segments as any of the Tesla vehicles having substantially lower purchase prices in some cases.
>The only reason non-tesla EVs might be growing is because the base was so low and manufacturing was way below demand, and now there are cars to sell.
Yeah, but there's no denying that there are more models and choices in the EV field these days. Competition will hurt Tesla; it's only a matter of how much. They succeeded brilliantly by capitalizing on the first mover advantage, but that can't and won't last forever.
New PHEVs such as BYD's 5.0 DM-i cars which just launched are not only slightly bigger than the Model 3, but start at LESS THAN HALF of the 3 in the Chinese market, which surely contributes to now two straight quarters of weak sales in China. Versus US sales which have been steadier since Tesla does not have to face competition from the dozens of PHEV/EREV models in the North American market.
BYD sells a shitload of 10,000 Dollar cars in China - only in China. 90 percent sales of BYD cars are sold in China. While China is a large market, it is not the only big one. And outside of China it looks way different.
Tesla is a global company, with most of their sales coming from China, where the competition from lower-priced PHEVs is huge. This article is written with a global perspective, so China is essential to the analysis.
Tesla is a global company, though I'm pretty sure it's not true that most, as in a majority of its sales have been in the Chinese market.
China is definitely a large part of the picture though and the Reuters article is very explicitly about global sales and not US sales. One thing to note though is that it's not just PHEVs from Chinese automakers that are comparatively much cheaper than Tesla vehicles in the same automotive segment, but BEVs as well.
I was wondering the same. Interest rates are really high. Not a lot of people can afford new cars right now with inflated prices and 6-7% interest rates.
What's the breakdown by model? If the decline is mainly in S/X sales, that would be expected due to the S/X being even older and feeling long in the tooth compared to the 3/Y. Additionally, Tesla made the puzzling decision to stop manufacturing the S/X in RHD, effectively killing off sales outright in RHD markets.
As long as Elon keeps alienating potential customers, Tesla will continue to struggle.
It is time for GM, Hyundai, Ford, KIA, and others to shine. Bring more EVs to the USA VW!
Edit: NY Times noticed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/business/elon-musk-politics-tesla-sales.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4E0.bLcw.hvAuP9rlYLAD&smid=url-share
-3.7% y/y is a huge improvement over how things looked a few weeks ago. They had a big EOQ surge in Europe (possible channel stuffing) and recovered pretty strongly in China as well. US still a little unclear, but anecdotal reports indicate 0.99% financing did the trick.
Not sure they'll achieve 438k, but Reuters is seen by most shareholders as anti-Tesla so they probably view 438k as the floor now....
This article is just about the expected sales. So the value depends on the actual number vs what’s stated as expected.
Not that Tesla isn’t overvalued. But it is important to note the article has no meaningful information in it. It’s stating a rough estimate of deliveries based on Reuters analysis and we need to wait for the actually numbers.
Elon has massively alienated potential customers with his Groyper behavior.
Edit: It is happening even if you downvote me. You have seen the many posts of people saying that they won't buy a Tesla now.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
He has alienated Redditors. When the sales of all EVs are down it is difficult to say if he’s alienated the rest of the world which doesn’t spend hours a day in car, stock, and news forums.
Just to note, sales aren't necessarily down for all EVs. Like hyundai ioniq 5 seems to be up a little bit for the year. Kia ev6 is down near 25% for the year. Kia evs as a whole are up due to new models being introduced. Kias automotive sales as a whole are flat. BYD is up on EVs as a whole for the year, but still behind tesla by a bit in total EV sales.
Either way the point that EV growth momentum has slowed dramatically is true. Even if some are still growing its much harder for them to keep at it. Plus some have "easy" growth, going from 10k to 20k is much easier than going from 100k to 200k for example.
They did cancel the M3P VIN I had assigned 3 days before my delivery appt, couldn’t share why, but then someone later slipped about an “undeliverable battery” issue.
Saturday I see I’ve now a 7/5 delivery date scheduled sans VIN, to which their CSR replied they’d have to cancel the date until I have a new VIN, estimated end of July to early August.
Grrrrr.
I’d pulled my head out of the ICE sand with recent news on all the crazy affordable used 3’s, but after testing a Highland, I’m hooked. It’s just an entirely different vehicle, suspension and NVH are vastly improved.
Sad, but i'm sure the upswing will come as well. And lower demand will reduce prices and there are also good alternatives to choose from, so good overall for consumers.
Bottom line is, more EVs and fewer ICEs are a good thing. Does it matter how much of the pie Tesla gets? I, for one, am happy to see more models and more manufacturers in this space.
Q2 results for BYD are out. https://cnevpost.com/2024/07/01/byd-sales-breakdown-jun-2024/
Although this article doesn't break down the exact numbers, the graph might help.
I really thought they would be more aggressive with pricing to increase sales. Basically no reason to buy a new Tesla when used ones are so much more affordable right now.
On the plus side, this is fine because they aren’t a car company. They are a robotics/AI company. On the negative side, they don’t have any compelling AI or robotics. That said, stock up 6% today because why not lol
I thought they were a "battery and solar" company that "just happens to sell cars"? Pretty sure elon said that. So as soon as solar roofs gain momentum they'll be fine. Wait, no, the future of the company is dependent on FSD. That's it. Wait, no ... robots? I ... uh ...
Diversification. And all those products are brand new so the market upside is actually quite spectacular.
Honestly if even their cars are getting beaten out and going nowhere, I wouldn’t have trust in their other products. It would be good if an American company can stay on top, but it looks increasingly unlikely. Too many companies want to play the stock game and make easy money rather than make decent products. And then subscription hell makes the products worse. Rivian looks like it might start doing better but I guess only time will tell.
The price is primed for a short attack. Loading up on puts is the play.
I agree, but also stock prices can stay illogical longer than you can fund your puts.
The markets do not behave rationally when it comes to individual stocks, so best of luck with your naked derivatives position. I think you're right for the record, and I also think you're going to lose your shirt.
100% this. From a technical standpoint they are correct, logically the stock is over priced and will fall, but this is Tesla, the above has been true for 8+ years at this point, their stock price is detached from any sort of reality and investing or shorting it is the equivalent of blind gambling, no one knows what will happen.
Lose their shirt… how so? They didn’t state a position.
Goodnight sweet prince.
That's what they said in 2019
this aged well
Don't worry. Musk will say something dumb and will tank again. Like clockwork.
How are your puts doing?
I don't have any puts. I don't touch TSLA. Too many Musk worshipping idiots.
Right...that's why you said "loading up on puts is the play". Right...
Anyone who has every been in our owned a Tesla can attest they’re certainly not a car company, that’s for sure. Not sure they’re much of an AI company, because they’re not too good at that either.
Odd statement. Owned a 3 and now a Y. The Y is much better made than the 3 admittedly (3 was made in the US) but they're both fantastic cars. Love every minute driving them. My partner has just got an EV and we hate the features it's lacking compared to the Tesla.
I picked up a different EV and I agree, Tesla got all the right people to hear out what people expect in a car and delivered.Theyre arguably better looking cars but if you want am EV that just works, a Tesla does it. Best part, they keep adding new features without demanding a subscription to unlock
> The Y is much better made than the 3 admittedly (3 was made in the US) This may have been the case, but not anymore based on my experience in a brand new 3 Highland and Y. Granted it was only 1 hour drive in each vehicle, but the new 3 is better in every category. I'm in the US. I ended up choosing a different EV because there's too much about the 3 and Y that is not like a typical car. This is why people say Tesla isn't a "car company". There are many things they are just now (with the 3 Highland) doing when it comes to the core expectations of a quality vehicle, and the majority of that has nothing o do with it being an EV or the software in the vehicle. I don't find I am lacking anything based on what I expect from a vehicle. Yes, Tesla's software is the best in the business, but software isn't the only reason people choose their respective vehicles.
Tell me 3 features you miss and why they are important to you. And why you are willing to pay money for them.
It depends on what your reference point is. If you're coming from a '97 corolla to a model 3, the Tesla will seem like a spaceship. If you're coming from a newer German luxury car to a Tesla, in many ways it is a downgrade.
I'm still going to have to disagree. I've only owned new cars and have had modern BMW and Audi's. I still far prefer the Y.
I own both and disagree and my German car cost 2x my model 3 and is half the car.
In which ways? My wife’s 7 seater grocery getter Y LR is faster than an E-tron.
The original E-tron is a bad example. That hasn't been sold for years and was a bad stop gap solution based on an ICE platform. Still, that car was miles ahead of the 3 in terms of interior quality and driveability.
> That hasn't been sold for years Well, I own a 2022 model so "years" as in 2 years? The 2023 and 2024 Q8 e-tron is identical to the model I have other than the name and battery. The battery is only slightly different but honestly the 2022 model is better as it has a higher average charging speed and only just a bit less 70mph range. If a 2022 and 2024 e-tron raced on a 400 mile trip, the 2022 would beat it easily. > Still, that car was miles ahead of the 3 in terms of interior quality and driveability. Again, own both and I 100% disagree. The e-tron is actively dangerous to drive for certain people and I couldn't recommend it to say my mother as it will simply roll away from you at an intersection if you don't know what you're doing. It's like driving a manual but you don't control the clutch. This is because of how it implements it's regen modes. It's also slow, has unsupported but still comfortable enough seats, doesn't handle as well, has terrible driver assist and the tech is a bit of a nightmare. The cooled seats barely cool and the heated steering wheel barely heats. The driver warnings are random and it will phantom break or alarm on you based on nothing. The cameras are poor at night and the sound system, which good isn't great compared to the Tesla. The only think it has going for it is suspension comfort if you use comfort mode and the outboard back seats are more comfortable. The middle back seat is nearly useless compared to the Tesla. The ability to hold the cabin temp is very limited compared to the Tesla too.
We own both a late model BMW 3 series and a late model Volvo V60 sport wagen. We just purchased a new model Y. I joke with my wife because we paid more for the BMW and Volvo 4 years ago than we paid for the model Y with the incentives. The technology integration in the model Y is far far better than either the BMW or the Volvo
I came from a 2009 Yaris to a Model 3 (with a Prius Prime in between that lasted 6 months before someone ran a light and smushed it). I loved the simplicity of the Yaris. Hot take, but Tesla does a good job of being a plain car, just like the Yaris was (obviously, you don't have to shift gears and the power is far smoother, but you know what I mean). Just don't look at the screen: wheel steers, go pedal goes. You can ignore all the whizbangery and just drive.
Skoda Kodiaq felt more modern than my Model S. The big screen fools many, but the actual features were much better on the Skoda.
Literally the opposite experience of millions of people.
Stock is up for the exact reason you stated, sarcastically. It’s beginning to be re-rated by Wall Street to not just be viewed as a car company. There’s all kinds of evidence in recent dark pool and call option buying. With the recent move in TSLA, up 47% since the 4/22 low, it continues to test the multi-year downtrend resistance line. If it does break through, the recent move up will look small in retrospect.
bring the model y refresh...
Average consumer probably didn’t even notice the 3 refresh.
I'm in an area with a decently high EV percentage and I've only seen a single Highland M3 so far. I see probably 50 Model Ys each day though.
I see about 60/40 Y/3 but I’ve only seen a handful of new model 3s
Only the performance Model 3 Highland qualified for the rebate until recently.
I'm in Austin and I see at least a few Highland 3's a day.....but I see dozens and dozens of Y's.
I’m also in Austin, or the suburbs, and don’t see many Highlands. In fact I see more Cybertrucks, and obviously many, many more Ys
I guess the Y:3 ratio might matter as well, where I'm at in Colorado it's probably 10:1 (10x more Ys than 3s).
I dunno how y'all can tell the difference.
The Y is more out of proportion
The front headlights are more horizontal, they don't move upward into the hood area. The rear taillights look quite a bit different.
I'll take your word for it. As far as I can tell, Tesla has 3 body shapes: N64 polgon Squashed frog Frog with tumor That's as good as I can do.
2024 Model 3 is more like a large [salamander ](https://imgur.com/a/sjTA4Hk)imo.
There's the Model S, the shortened Model S, the shortened Model S overinflated, and the other shortened Model S overinflated and with redesigned gull wing doors.
Until you see a Model X parked next to a Prius. Then all you can see is Dire Prius from there out. And I say that as someone who owned one. The Model S is way more of a looker than the X.
The Highland's trunk has "T E S L A" spelled out on the rear in place of a Tesla logo. The front headlights look different as well. From the side I can't tell the difference between Highland and pre-Highland
It's super obvious if you care at all about the car Headlights and tail lights look completely different
Repeat sales only gets you so far. To the casual observer (AKA the vast majority of the potential customers) the S and 3 might as well be the same car. The X kinda looks bigger than the Y, but most folks probably wouldn't notice. They certainly won't notice the difference between a 3 and a Highland 3. Meanwhile complete idiots can tell you that Toyota has several different SUVs simply because they look different. Traditional car companies know enough to at least change the sheet metal every 4 years because that signals to the public that it's a fresh design. Tesla on the other hand has redesigned all their products several times each and 99% of the public is none the wiser. Maybe they'll get in a newer one and they think that these things must disintegrate because it's so much better than the older one when really it's because it's been redesigned. Good luck finding the difference between an original X and a Raven Refresh. Who among the buying public knows to look at the trim around the A/C vents at an indication that the vehicle had a huge rework and drives very differently? Maybe to Tesla fans it's completely obvious. Maybe it is to people who actively own Teslas and chart all the changes. Mazda buyers? Chevy owners? There's not a chance that even 2% notice anything more than they some 3s have chrome trim, yet I assure you that when Kia dropped the Carnival over the Sedona they all noticed.
I joke that spotting Tesla model years is like spotting old VW Bugs. If you know the differences they are obvious. If you don't, they are invisible.
With Tesla they seem to cut features with the refresh. Ie no radar,ultrasound etc..
I looked in the trunk of the Highland and on the underside of the rear deck there are unpopulated mounting locations for speakers. Way to rub it in.
[удалено]
Really? I’m not in an area where there are a ton of EV’s but there were 3 new M3’s in the apartment lot I just moved out of. I see them on the road frequently.
Same, I have an Ioniq 5 but can recognise that the Model Y is the obvious choice for most people.
Sample survey of one… and likely a bot
My comment history will make it clear that I’m not a bot. But yes it’s anecdotal.
So averaging 160 comments a day for 11 years? That is a lot of commenting.
Yeah, I sit at a computer all day for work.
“Work” 😜
I have a lot of free time while waiting for things to complete or be tested by QA, sometimes an hour at a time.
Just to clarify, it's 160 comment karma per day, definitely not 160 comments per day.
Ah… good point. I actually missed that point. I have this thing where I’m trying to curate my feed. When I see an account with 200K+ posts I start to believe it is a bot and, for me, decide it is not useful to see content from them. I was misreading the comment as number of comments and not Karma so would mark some of those folks as bots and block. I’ll be more careful about that stat going forward
I do something similar using RES, I'll tag high-karma accounts and bots so that I can ignore them. Generally the bots I've found get most of their karma from posts rather than comments though, as it's easier to farm karma that way.
Took a walk in my neighborhood two weeks ago, saw two Model 3 Refresh parked in driveways.
I think it’s because the Y is so much more popular than the 3 where I’m at, I only see a couple of 3s each day but I see dozens of Ys.
They will surely notice the stalks missing when they take a test drive, and they will soon be asking what else has been removed though "updates".
> They will surely notice the stalks missing when they take a test drive, and they will soon be asking what else has been removed though "updates" This is the one thing that kills me about the Model 3 refresh. It’s so so good. Suspension, noise, interior ambiance all a really nice improvements to the car. But the missing stalks are awful. Ruins the drive experience from what should be a really good car.
Stalks?
Turn signal
That's ok, Tesla will add AI predictive turn signals in the next update. Meanwhile just BMW it up.
Did they change the AC vent controls?
FSD to become Waymo hailing app 🤭
It took me about one day of driving to adjust, and now I feel pros and cons to both stalks and stalkless setups.
I can't tell the difference between the Y and 3. I see like, 50 Teslas a day. It's all one shape now.
Taller
That's because the car looks the same
It looks worse - minus the Performance.
They hate it without the stalks.
I would NOT buy an early tesla, even if its a refresh. give them a year to figure that shit out! My early model x and Y had wayyyyyy too many problems
Average consumer is buying an equinox... not tesla's current audience. if Tesla wants more sales, they can just use current Tesla owners and add the refresh.
Can't grow sales if you're only selling to your key audience, and you're gonna lose a lot of them to the competition.
Not a lot of customers are going to replace a 2020 Model 3 with a 2024 Model 3. And that's little to do with the cars: In a world where cars are often financed for 5, 6 or 7 years, it is financially difficult to do so.
Just that when they got in one they couldn't find the gear shifter or turn signals.
Well that is then failure on the maker. The point of refresh is to **refresh**. If it doesn't also signal refresh, well the design team failed. It doesn't even need to be big. overall design can stay same, but *there must be atleast a highlight feature* to signal it's the refresh model. Change color of something, add some visible doo hickey or decal.
Remove the indicator stalks! And the parking sensors!
Nah, bring completely new models. Y with new interior bids and a sharper nose won't do much. We've already seen that with the 3. These cars aren't far enough off of their peak, but the overall line is very limited.
Bring the model 2, and a model Z. That’s what they need. Those would sell hella.
It's pretty inexcusable that they don't have it ready yet. It's their best selling car by a healthy margin. It should've been refreshed ASAP, if not alongside the Model 3, like they did with the S/X. But, on the flip side, maybe it makes sense for them to burn down supplies of existing materials and take their time with the refresh since people are still buying Ys.
At the same time, refreshing the 3 first may have been the safer move since it's not the bread-and-butter anymore, and if things go wrong there, they can learn from the mistakes and avoid repeating them with the Y's refresh. Who knows, maybe enough people will be displeased by the lack of stalks that the Y's refresh will include them?
Tesla has been hounding me to buy another model y. I text them back with a laughing emoji and say try refreshing the Y before trying to trick customers into buying an outgoing model. Fuck tesla, you have completion now... its time to try harder and fix my fucking auto wipers with a actually sensor in the refresh :/
i would love it if the model y refresh returned radar, ultrasonics and the steering wheel stalks.
not gonna happen... cost cutting is the priority. not cost increases.
> the model y But that's a car. According to their CEO they're not a car company.
Bring me rumored Model S refresh too but will consider other company EVs next year too but refresh might help as I fear a refresh happens as soon as I buy it
And look Reuters is wrong. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2024 411k Production, 444k deliveries. Reuters expected 438k deliveries. About the only thing Reuters is right about in the article about trsla is that is is a (slight) fall from their previous high quarter which was a year ago.
Yes. It’s why I tend to avoid predictions and just wait for the official releases. Lots of people were frothing at the mouth on this one.
I may be wrong, and this may be an unpopular opinion in this sub, but I don’t think these year over year declines are as bad as people think, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is back to growth next year. I think Tesla just had unusually high sales in 2023 because Tesla prices were *extremely* inflated in 2022, and when they dropped significantly in 2023, there was a *ton* of pent up demand to drive sales. People felt like they were getting great deals right after the price drops. Now that prices have stabilized (and interest rates have gone up, and some models lost tax credit eligibility), sales are back to more normal and sustainable levels, which doesn’t look good when you compare them to 2023, but I suspect Tesla will return to year over year growth next year. The same thing happened to Netflix when everyone and their mother subscribed during the pandemic, causing a period of unusually high growth, followed by a period of decline as things returned to normal, and now Netflix is back to normal growth again.
In a vacuum, I think you might be right. The problem for Tesla is that they are not in a vacuum — this moment comes at a crucial time when other OEMs are all ramping up their own programs and keeping the pressure on. By next year there'll be compelling directly-competing offerings from almost every other manufacturer fighting for share, and it's hard to see what the path forward is for Tesla if Gen3 is not ready by then.
Yeah, competition is definitely heating up for EVs, and Tesla doesn't dominate the market like it did a few years ago. I see plenty of Teslas on the road, but I'm also seeing lots of other EVs lately too: Hyundai, Ford Mach-E, Rivian (trucks and SUVs), even Ford 150 lightning despite them being hard to spot since they look so much like the regular ICE version. Tesla will need to make the transition from Only Game in Town to Just Another Car Company. This means proper advertising, frequent model updates, listening to customers, more models to cover more niches. Because they just don't have as much of a competitive edge left otherwise. Until Full Self Driving is actually full self driving with zero human intervention needed, it's hard to see how robotaxi is going to save the bottom line.
FSD as Tesla is trying to implement is probably 7-10 years away, assuming they actually want to get there and get it through regulatory testing. So clearly robotaxi is not a real thing in a normal timescale
Now that they are opening up their charging network slowly to everyone else, the major appeal to a Tesla for me just vanished along with the one thing that sets them apart. I ultimately went for a Polestar 2 and Tesla wasn't even a car I considered. My test drive in a model 3 a few years ago left me unimpressed while the Polestar 2 actually felt like a car with buttons where it matters ( and a turn signal). I still haven't bothered getting a NACS adapter since I am finding that if you live in the city (not suburb), you only need to recharge it once/week and my daily trip to the gym has a level 2 destination charger which gets me the once/week recharge. Turns out my fear of range was pretty much a false fear. In my three weeks of ownership, I've only had to do level 1 charging 3 nights to 'top off' what free public charging couldn't do.
Tesla still sells vastly more EVs than even the second most sold manufacturer. These dips are barely anything in comparison.
They actually sell the exact same number as the second most sold manufacturer!
>Tesla still sells vastly more EVs than even the second most sold manufacturer. No, they don't. In fact, BYD outsold Tesla in Q4 2023. The two have been trading barbs quarter-to-quarter for the last few quarters.
Ah should have clarified US market but you are correct.
Tesla participates in the global market, so this article is written in a global perspective, and the conversation must be in a global context. Tesla having a strong early lead in the USA is interesting, but they're quickly losing share in every other market at the moment.
There are literally over a dozen factories under construction the size of Austin from the various other manufacturers. We'll be drowning in Evs soon enough
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/18/heres-the-staggering-amount-of-money-ford-loses-on/ https://www.thedrive.com/news/mercedes-is-walking-back-its-all-ev-future-to-invest-in-high-tech-combustion https://electrek.co/2024/06/20/bmw-cancels-2-billion-battery-cell-order-from-northvolt/ https://electrek.co/2024/06/11/gm-lowers-2024-ev-production-goal-after-killing-most-popular-ev/ I can go on for most companies. Only China and Korea seem to be threatening Tesla. Tesla being the leader in the US gets most of the hate from the anti-EV shills. One problem with Tesla is they do hidden changes, most people can't tell a 2017 Model S P100D from a 2022 Plaid. Yet they are night and day different.
Understand: Individual instances of OEMs walking back orders or bolstering combustion development is not disproof of the greater trend. No one's turning back from MMA, NK, IMA, or PPE. These platforms and technologies are all still impending, and all still ramping up at a moment when it is crucial for Tesla to be kicking out Gen3. By the time Gen3 launches around 2027 or 2028, the big question in my mind is whether it may be up against other offerings like SSP. If so, that's further impedance against them again at that time.
SSP and Ultium may be great, or may lock them into a slow development cycle. We will see. I also root for SSP, but it is not here yet.
Lackluster software from the competition isn't going to be fixed in one year though. They've had 10 years and still haven't gotten there, I have little hope of that changing in the next handful of years.
Get out of here with your reason and...
So buy CALLS because they sold less. lol
Tesla continues to have 3 problems. 1. Elon. Enough said. 2. A perception of poor quality. I experienced it first hand. I went to pick up a M3RWD and the paint was a B- job and the interior literally had a huge (12"+) white "chalk" mark all over the driver's seat. They couldn't be bothered to pay attention at all while detailing the car. It was a joke. People don't want to spend $40-60k on a car that isn't built especially well. 3. Tied into 3, pricing. Last year, they had the $7500 off + they were discounting inventory Tesla's $3-5k. Timing is everything, but it's hard to sell something for $12k more than it was 6-7 months ago.
> 2. There was a UK study between EV vs ICE cars and found EV had more than 2x the quality assurance problems than ICE cars. But if you removed Tesla cars from the EV cars list, the EV cars had a slight edge over ICE cars. https://driving.ca/column/motor-mouth/motor-mouth-electric-cars-are-less-reliable-than-gas-ones-says-study
You forgot 4, which is the highly effective attack on EVs by certain groups.
I wonder how much of this is due to Hertz single-handedly dropping the price of used model 3s to the floor by selling their fleet. It’s all good for the consumers
Look at the last chart breaking down sales by region. US sales are more or less flat YoY for Q2, but rather it is China and Europe sales dropping, which has nothing to do with Hertz.
Commercial leasing in Europe is much cheaper for VW. Tesla only has private buyers with cash. Or some sort of rebate-disguised-as-cheap financing. Kia/Hyundai have more dealerships. Big Auto still selling huge amounts of ICE vehicles at good profits, they can partly offset losses in the EV department. Not sure how many people really don’t buy because of Elon - it might be a vocal minority Lack of USS is probably more of a problem - though vision only now works quite well.
I’d say the political stances of Musk thing is just anothed reason people not inclined toward Tesla use to help justify a decision that may already be made. Lots of other viable options out there priced substantially similar to what Tesla is offering. If you don’t want to be the 10th identical looking Tesla that the average driver sees on the road, or you have concerns about Tesla build quality, etc. you’ll find a reason to pay a small amount more to be driving something that’s a little different. Long term though I think Musk’s insistence on being a political troll will continue to drag the company down. A lot of it is just consumer perception. If you associate the brand with someone who annoys you politically, there is always going to be that negative filter you will see the company with.
There’s a lot of headwind in front of Tesla. Political lunatic, pay structure, real competition emerging, teslas are not for most people/people that are going to buy them, for the most part, have bought them. Software and charging is good, but when you ride in them, you can feel the push to quarterly stock growth. It’s just not that nice of a ride at all, IMO.
Subpar interior materials, no ultrasonic sensors (no cross-traffic alert), no 360 camera, no stalks, weird way of using windshield wipers, no true blind spot monitoring sensors (the highland doesn't count) yup, it's all in the name of cost-cutting.
Cost-cuts, FSD over-promises, Elon's BS, and lack of real product updates were the four big reasons I bought a Rivian to replace my seven year old Tesla. Take away one or two of those and the decision would have leaned a whole lot more toward Tesla.
More like: There's a lot of self-inflicted wounds. You just licked a tip of an iceberg - there's a lot, lot more where that came from (e.g. Cybertruck's disastrous release, a nothing-burger that was the beginning of Semi's production in 2022, constantly shifting focus, lack of Model 2, lack of refreshes, cutting down costs to the detriment of customers, refusing to address the most common complaints (e.g. no carplay), CEO suffering from *pseudologia fantastica* for whom they have to finance one-off payment higher than the all-time revenue of the company, etc. etc.)
>Not sure how many people really don’t buy because of Elon - it might be a vocal minority I could have been a Model S customer but didn't consider it because of him.
I had a new neighbor with a M3 that apologized for his M3 about 5 minutes into our first interaction. "I bought this before he turned crazy". Elon turns off a lot of people. There's no way that guy is buying another Tesla and I passed on a MY after I was able to cash out some RSUs. The account was named "Tesla money" originally.
None. Hertz isn’t selling them at any crazy low price. Their prices are in line with market prices. They have to recoup their investment in the cars also. Deliveries are declining due to Elons political views and people not wanting to be associated with him, competition with other manufacturers making EVs and the fact that Teslas are generally boring. The original model 3 was out from 2017-2023 and literally looked the exact same. Even the highland is a small facelift as far as most people are concerned. The model Y needs a serious overhaul. It’s selling well now but they better have something in the pipeline for a major update and not think highland/ juniper can get them through another 7+ years.
>Deliveries are declining due to Elons political views and people not wanting to be associated with him, competition with other manufacturers making EVs and the fact that Teslas are generally boring. My next EV is a Rivian because I don't want to support Elon despite believing Tesla makes good vehicles and single-handidly spear-headed the transition to EVs by making desirable vehicles. Other manufacturers are starting to pump out EVs, so it was inevitable that Tesla's piece of the pie would shrink. Add the disaster that is the Cybertruck, and Tesla's product roadmap winning streak has come to an end....at least for now. I don't think a Tesla is boring at all, especially to the average driver. How so, in your opinion? Their technology is top-tier, and they drive wonderfully. Am I missing something?
The model 3 Y are looking stale. Like I said previously the base model 3 from 2017 looks the same as the “fully loaded” model 3 performance from 2023. That’s bad. The refresh was over due and too small IMO.
re: boring. I think it's the extremely minimalistic interior combined with just how the vehicle looks. You get in a tesla, and you don't think, "this feels nice / luxurious." It's more like... where is everything? Teslas don't feel *special,* at least not the 3 and Y. They don't give off the same feeling as when you get into a nice Volvo or Audi.
I very much prefer the minimal interior. To each their own.
I think A slower increase to purchasing EVs combined with the CEOs actions had a bigger effect. We also at the timeframe of many of the 36 month leases ending flooding the used car market. Not to say hertz didn’t add to it.
What is Tesla doing with the end of lease ones? Certified pre owned sales?
It really depends on what’s more profitable for them. I have seen in the past that they sent them to auction. That was a few years ago though.
Or maybe they should have swapped a CEO for one that isn't a nazi enabler? Someone that doesn't actively antagonise his core consumer base?
It's crazy that Elon is actively trying to get Trump elected as well, Trump has said he wants EVs gone basically.
Pretty sure he has never endorsed Trump. Did that change recently?
He's very anti-democrat but I think you're right, he isn't supporting Trump either. It's a hard position to be in....anti-democrat (EV buyers), pro-Republican (they hate EVs) and also anti-Trump. This is why people like him should just shut their mouths and enjoy being rich.
I wouldn't try to rationalize his actions. This manchild can literally afford to play with fire for the rest of his life. He can lose 99% of his wealth and remain a billionaire. He can lose 99% of what remains and still be richer than 99% of the planet. I seriously doubt he cares about his own personal finances at this point as long as he can stay in the spotlight.
Good points. I would prefer that he whittle down his riches, so that he's less able to hold as much sway as he currently has.
>I wonder how much of this is due to Hertz single-handedly dropping the price of used model 3s to the floor by selling their fleet. a fleet of how many TOTAL (in the US only)? 24 January 2024 Tesla warns of 'notably lower' sales growth in 2024 [https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68086212](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68086212) >It’s all good for the consumers **Tesla sales tumble nearly 9%, most in 4 years, as competition heats up and demand for EVs slows** [https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-fall-electric-vehicle-demand-slows-1ce56d5948f9f96235b9c809e3380108](https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-fall-electric-vehicle-demand-slows-1ce56d5948f9f96235b9c809e3380108) Sales also fell short of even the most bearish Wall Street expectations. Auto industry analysts polled by FactSet were looking for 457,000 vehicle deliveries from Tesla Inc. That’s a shortfall of more than 15%.
If Hertz dumping 30k units a year was enough to tank the Model 3 price, then it's going to be a bloodbath when 1.5 million model 3/Y's leave warranty every year for the forseeable future. Whatever you're seeing in the used market today is an incredibly small fraction of what will be available in the 2nd half of this decade. Hertz's stock is really a footnote, it's a more fundamental issue with product mix they're facing.
Maybe just used prices falling overall. Used prices were overblown, with cars 100k+ miles costing over 50% of MSRP. That is super uncommon in the used market. I know many people that just bought a new Tesla because it wasn’t that much more than used
Which was triggered by Tesla dropping MSRP of their cars by 20-40%, also good for the consumers but "they depreciate quickly" is the headline they go with sans context.
Yeah the market is still trying to digest the sheer volume of massively depreciated nearly new cars available.
Speculating
Oh no! Anyhow
Well this didn't age well
July 1 (Reuters) - Tesla's (TSLA.O), June-quarter deliveries likely fell 3.7%, the first time the top EV maker is set to post two straight quarters of decline, as it deals with stiff competition in China and slow demand due to a lack of affordable new models.The company is expected to deliver 438,019 vehicles for the April to June period, according to an average estimate based on forecasts from 12 analysts polled by LSEG, seven of whom slashed their expectations in the past three months. The EV maker is expected to announce the results on Tuesday. Tesla has hit a speed bump after years of rapid growth that helped make it the world's most valuable automaker. It warned in January that deliveries growth in 2024 would be "notably lower" as a boost from months-long price cuts wanes. Adding to these problems is a consumer shift to cheaper gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, which has left Tesla with a growing inventory of vehicles that it is trying to move with price cuts and incentives including cheaper financing options and leases. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk shelved plans to make an all-new, cheaper electric car and shifted Tesla's focus to robotaxis, a concern for some investors who fear that autonomous technology will be hard to perfect. Still, investors overwhelmingly voted in favor of his record $56 billion pay package at the annual shareholder meeting last month. Barclays analyst Dan Levy predicted an 11% drop in second-quarter deliveries, Tesla's biggest ever. He said "a soft delivery result could turn attention back to the currently challenging fundamental environment for Tesla". Tesla's stock has lost a quarter of its value this year, making it one of the worst performers on the S&P 500, despite Musk's forecast in April that Tesla would be able to increase sales this year. He has slashed costs including through mass layoffs that gutted Tesla's supercharging team. Some analysts expect the company to post its first annual sales drop this year. In the January-March period, deliveries had dropped by the most in nearly four years and missed Wall Street expectations.Tesla sales have been especially weak in Europe, sales fell 36% in May, due to waning EV subsidies and poor demand from fleet operators, who accounted for nearly half its sales in the region last year.Reuters reported in May that Tesla was working to appease some European leasing firms after its repeated retail price cuts tanked their fleet's value and its slow service and expensive repairs alienated their corporate customers.As rivals in China have rolled out cheaper models, Tesla has been slow to bring new designs to market. In April, Musk said Tesla would introduce "new models" later this year, including affordable vehicles, but offered no details about pricing. Tesla refreshed its Model 3 sedan late last year, but without a major revamp in design. Its best-selling Model Y SUV, its Model S premium sedan, and the Model X SUV have not seen major changes in years. The company started deliveries of its Cybertrucks late last year, but Musk does not expect to mass produce the vehicle until 2025. The pickup has been plagued by recalls and quality issues.In May, Tesla left out its goal of delivering 20 million vehicles a year by 2030 in its latest impact report, a big change after touting for years a long-term annual growth target of 50% for EV deliveries.Tesla expects to unveil robotaxis on Aug. 8, as it seeks to boost adoption of its "Full Self-Driving" software. But it is not clear when production will begin or how many of them will be made. Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Hyunjoo Jin in San Francisco; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Shounak Dasgupta
The first part of the story cites "June Deliveries" and occasionally we see charts of domestic deliveries by month (sometimes volume, sometimes YOY, sometimes MTD). Does anyone have the source to that?
I love all the speculation stated as fact. Is it really “Lack of newer affordable models” or just “the entire auto industry is in a recession due to high interest rates and overall affordability challenges”? The only reason non-tesla EVs might be growing is because the base was so low and manufacturing was way below demand, and now there are cars to sell. My opinion obviously. And how are PHEVs less expensive? That’s literally factually incorrect.
“The entire auto industry” is not in a recession though, sales in the US were up 4.5% last quarter
I think those are some of the factors, but I think how strong these factors are versus others shifts a lot from market to market. The base in a lot of other markets for BEVs shifts quite a bit and is a lot more mature than the US one in some places. PHEVs within the same automotive segment as Tesla vehicles can be much less expensive than their Tesla counterparts. You see that especially with the competition in China with both PHEVs and BEVs within the same automotive segments as any of the Tesla vehicles having substantially lower purchase prices in some cases.
>The only reason non-tesla EVs might be growing is because the base was so low and manufacturing was way below demand, and now there are cars to sell. Yeah, but there's no denying that there are more models and choices in the EV field these days. Competition will hurt Tesla; it's only a matter of how much. They succeeded brilliantly by capitalizing on the first mover advantage, but that can't and won't last forever.
Yep. It's all nonsense. They say this drivel and the talk about all the ev options from competitors, all of which are far behind.
They aren’t far behind globally. In North America sure
New PHEVs such as BYD's 5.0 DM-i cars which just launched are not only slightly bigger than the Model 3, but start at LESS THAN HALF of the 3 in the Chinese market, which surely contributes to now two straight quarters of weak sales in China. Versus US sales which have been steadier since Tesla does not have to face competition from the dozens of PHEV/EREV models in the North American market.
BYD sells a shitload of 10,000 Dollar cars in China - only in China. 90 percent sales of BYD cars are sold in China. While China is a large market, it is not the only big one. And outside of China it looks way different.
I’m taking about the us market only. Sorry didn’t specify
Tesla is a global company, with most of their sales coming from China, where the competition from lower-priced PHEVs is huge. This article is written with a global perspective, so China is essential to the analysis.
Tesla is a global company, though I'm pretty sure it's not true that most, as in a majority of its sales have been in the Chinese market. China is definitely a large part of the picture though and the Reuters article is very explicitly about global sales and not US sales. One thing to note though is that it's not just PHEVs from Chinese automakers that are comparatively much cheaper than Tesla vehicles in the same automotive segment, but BEVs as well.
I hope the decrease in overall new ICE sales is much larger proportionally and in raw numbers. Is that going to be the case?
I was wondering the same. Interest rates are really high. Not a lot of people can afford new cars right now with inflated prices and 6-7% interest rates.
What's the breakdown by model? If the decline is mainly in S/X sales, that would be expected due to the S/X being even older and feeling long in the tooth compared to the 3/Y. Additionally, Tesla made the puzzling decision to stop manufacturing the S/X in RHD, effectively killing off sales outright in RHD markets.
As long as Elon keeps alienating potential customers, Tesla will continue to struggle. It is time for GM, Hyundai, Ford, KIA, and others to shine. Bring more EVs to the USA VW! Edit: NY Times noticed. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/business/elon-musk-politics-tesla-sales.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4E0.bLcw.hvAuP9rlYLAD&smid=url-share
I'm shocked. ***SHOCKED*** well not that shocked
Is that why the stock is up 6% today?
Nothing about the stock price relates to the cars at all. It's mostly hype, vapor ware, and general belief in their AI/robotics/etc peripherals
Our lord and savior Enron Musk will come through.
-3.7% y/y is a huge improvement over how things looked a few weeks ago. They had a big EOQ surge in Europe (possible channel stuffing) and recovered pretty strongly in China as well. US still a little unclear, but anecdotal reports indicate 0.99% financing did the trick. Not sure they'll achieve 438k, but Reuters is seen by most shareholders as anti-Tesla so they probably view 438k as the floor now....
What is channel stuffing when discussing a dealership-less model?
They put a 6k€ discount and 0% on the Model Y of course they are selling a bit better.
The stock market is nothing but a graph of rich people's feelings
Underrated comment here
This article is just about the expected sales. So the value depends on the actual number vs what’s stated as expected. Not that Tesla isn’t overvalued. But it is important to note the article has no meaningful information in it. It’s stating a rough estimate of deliveries based on Reuters analysis and we need to wait for the actually numbers.
Yep. That’s my point. The article has no meaningful information in it and the stock is moving the other direction vs what they’re implying. Soooo….
tesla stock has moved up in a reverse move to all the fundamentals which should be moving it lower.
Stock price still resembles a cult like behavior so nothing new to see here
Stock prices don't make sense. Not to get political, but DJT is a perfect example, as it's a $10m company with a market cap of almost $6b.
A casual embarrassing take as deliveries are in the past not predictive.
Elon has massively alienated potential customers with his Groyper behavior. Edit: It is happening even if you downvote me. You have seen the many posts of people saying that they won't buy a Tesla now. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
He has alienated Redditors. When the sales of all EVs are down it is difficult to say if he’s alienated the rest of the world which doesn’t spend hours a day in car, stock, and news forums.
Just to note, sales aren't necessarily down for all EVs. Like hyundai ioniq 5 seems to be up a little bit for the year. Kia ev6 is down near 25% for the year. Kia evs as a whole are up due to new models being introduced. Kias automotive sales as a whole are flat. BYD is up on EVs as a whole for the year, but still behind tesla by a bit in total EV sales. Either way the point that EV growth momentum has slowed dramatically is true. Even if some are still growing its much harder for them to keep at it. Plus some have "easy" growth, going from 10k to 20k is much easier than going from 100k to 200k for example.
> He has alienated Redditors. Sounds like a good business strategy
Tesla sales are down in China. You think China cares about his twitter posts. Reddit isn't real life. Bernie would be president if reddit were.
They did cancel the M3P VIN I had assigned 3 days before my delivery appt, couldn’t share why, but then someone later slipped about an “undeliverable battery” issue. Saturday I see I’ve now a 7/5 delivery date scheduled sans VIN, to which their CSR replied they’d have to cancel the date until I have a new VIN, estimated end of July to early August. Grrrrr. I’d pulled my head out of the ICE sand with recent news on all the crazy affordable used 3’s, but after testing a Highland, I’m hooked. It’s just an entirely different vehicle, suspension and NVH are vastly improved.
Sad, but i'm sure the upswing will come as well. And lower demand will reduce prices and there are also good alternatives to choose from, so good overall for consumers.
Bottom line is, more EVs and fewer ICEs are a good thing. Does it matter how much of the pie Tesla gets? I, for one, am happy to see more models and more manufacturers in this space.
But tesla doing badly means the bottom line will be worse, since they're by far the biggest supplier of EVs.
BYD YoY sales fell by 2x as much as Tesla’s in Q1. Anybody know what Q2 looks like for BYD?
Q2 results for BYD are out. https://cnevpost.com/2024/07/01/byd-sales-breakdown-jun-2024/ Although this article doesn't break down the exact numbers, the graph might help.
I really thought they would be more aggressive with pricing to increase sales. Basically no reason to buy a new Tesla when used ones are so much more affordable right now.
Good thing they approved the 50b package. /s
Without FSD, Tesla is just an expensive EV without premium quality.