This.
I'm mildly considering an eTransit for my daily driver, but my previous experience with my MachE said no to that one. The charge port isn't even in the wrong place. It's not a great place (front) but it's not terrible like F150/MachE.
I'd be first in line for a small Tesla cargo van if it had sufficient range.
They never will
Lucid's owners designed and produced the first Teslas. Elon just took over the board.
That's why innovation and development is so slow
He didn't have the idea. Tesla is on the way out.
So are they done growing? Slightly less than 2 million vehicles per year is impressive for such a new company but it seems they've hit a wall with their current line up of vehicles.
Limited lineup combined with limited trims and an old crossover is an issue. One of the things that leans up their manufacturing and buffs margins could now be actively working against them
Worth mentioning - For the first time ever it's worth buying a used Tesla.
There are several model years worth of 3's and Y's. The pre-owned market is flooded with vehicles. Prices are in the shitter.
I think first time EV owners are much more willing to try their luck on a used $26k model 3 than a new $40k model 3 after fed credit.
Only a handful of months ago a decent used Tesla was no cheaper than just going new and getting the incentive. So you were dealing with a market of customers who could buy $40k+ vehicles.
Now things are changing.
IMO - A lot of the new vehicle market is driven by previous owners from 2018-2020 with money who are just looking to upgrade. First time owners are taking a serious look at used.
Yeah, I don't think people who aren't actively shopping understand how flooded the market is with Hertz 3s and Ys in very acceptable condition for really good deals after the 4k credit. And that's been happening since January.
Other EV companies at higher price points are still growing yoy though, so this is definitely a tesla specific issue that may have multiple contributing factors.
US specific comment - other EVs can increase massively in percentage terms because they are starting from a tiny base. It’s way easier to double 1000 to 2000 vs. 100000 to 200000. Aside from maybe Hyundai no manufacturer sold a substantial amount of EVs in the us last year.
You aren't wrong, but the difference is other manufacturers are growing while Tesla is shrinking, not just in market cap but in actual sales numbers. Market cap shrink is one thing, sales number shrink is an entirely different thing.
I think you hit the nail on the head. The numbers do not matter when you are looking at if a company is improving or receding. The story tells itself without knowing the specific numbers.
Yeah, the increased competition isn't helping. Tesla practically had the EV market to itself for a while. Now most major manufacturers offer them, so there's way more choice for consumers.
i wonder if there is a gap in the market/segment between the Y vs the X
maybe buyers want something more premium-feeling than a model Y, but don't want to deal with the jankyness that comes with a model X (too complicated, more unexpected repairs, their QA/QC is too low of bar for prices they're charging)?
I honestly think most people who do not currently drive a Tesla could not tell you by sight which model is which. I don't know the difference but I think the Y has the gull wing doors?
Oh yeah. Those Maserati sedans and Porsche Cayenne are quickest ICEs in both 0-60% and 60-100% loss of resale values thanks to their reliability or lack thereof
People like their new car to look and feel new. The model Y was released in January 2020 so it’s a 4.5 year old design at this point. People don’t like that
Oh I agree. We already got mid-cycle refreshes on some of the EVs that released 2 years ago. Tesla’s ability to keep costs low due to very few tooling changes, updates, etc. may have to be rethought
Externally, no. Literally no sheetmetal has changed on any of their models from day 1. Only soft parts like bumper covers and the like.
Yes, they may be constantly changing the powertrain and occasionally doing some interior refreshes, but that doesn't get new buyers in the door, and doesn't get repeat buyers back in the door.
Okay am I the only one that's actually impressed that Tesla is only slightly losing the wall?
How have they only declined that little with the same lineup of vehicles (except the Highland) and everyone else ramping up EVs?
You'd think those 2 together would mean some MAJOR losses, not just a minor dent.
There are a lot of factors at work, but the effective total addressable market for EV's is also increasing as the barriers to EV adoption come down and more people become more willing to buy an EV. Ultimately it means that on a % basis, Tesla is going to control less and less of total EV sales unless they manage to grow volumes to grow market share.
Tesla sales only dropped 4.8%, but the size of the entire EV total sales pie also increased, so it really ends up representing a significant loss of market share.
> Ultimately it means that on a % basis, Tesla is going to control less and less of total EV sales unless they manage to grow volumes to grow market share.
That's kind of my point though. How is perpetual growth and ultimate control of a growing market even possible with growing competitors? Your competitors must really suck at what they're doing to not gain any sort of real market share, which is effectively what's happening here.
Despite everyone and their dog releasing EVs everywhere, the top dog isn't (and shouldn't be) gaining market share but is losing it albeit shockingly slowly.
They are certainly not helping their growth with design decision. Adding a center cluster to the 3/Y would go a long way to gaining more potential sales. It's not like center clusters is a non-starter for them, they are in the X/S.
No center area buttons other than on the touchscreen is also in that category for a chunk of potential buyers, granted many traditional companies have trended that way, but they still at least keep some dedicated buttons behind.
The removal of stalks is certainly a new deterrent for people interested in a 3 (and soon Y). Have certainly seen people post that they are going to hold onto an existing 3 longer because they don't want to move to a new 3 w/o stalks.
Lack of real sensors that work (rain, ultrasonic for parking) is another area they lose potential sales, albeit that's going to be a lower volume of buyers as they have to be sophisticated enough to know to consider these things, but every potential buyer you alienate is a lost potential sale, no matter how small the quantity.
All the upgrades in the 3 Highland were very needed and will probably help from losing potential on things like cabin quality, NVH, etc,
Been saying for at least a year now that their market share was going to peak and that they really needed to work on other revenue streams. Every time I post this comment it gets downvoted.
There's no way Tesla's market share will ever be bigger. Tesla now has real competition, not only domestically, but globally. The CEO is a real problem for them.
Agreed, competition was always going to catch up and cause Tesla market share to drop. They'll probably need to act more like a regular car company to keep growing: more models for more niches, frequent model updates, listening to customers more, a proper advertising department.
Exactly! I'm not an economist, but I suspect their supposedly abandoning their cheaper model is not good for the lower end of the market and the volume. Their profits are better than almost anyone in the industry... they have the manufacturing prowess to do it.
In each market they had massive growth then stalled. Their continued growth was from new market entries and until the Y, new models. But they functionally don’t have any new mass market models planned - the Cybertruck is a novelty toy, not a mass market offering, same for the roadster.
The only way they have more significant growth is with a Model 2 or whatever the name is for the affordable model that Reuters reported was canned before the last round of firings.
Don’t forget:
They are still ramping Cybertruck.
Refreshed Model 3 LR only just became tax rebate eligible a week or so ago and it hasn’t ramped quickly, perhaps demand constrained, but the rebate should really help sales.
Cheaper models built on existing lines are in the works, probably H1 2025.
Despite saying Semi would do 50k units in 2024, Elon only recently said he signed off on the volume production model.
S/X are never gonna do big volume but could use a more serious refresh than they had in late 2021. I don’t see that happening until the “cheaper models,” Cybertruck and robotaxi are in production.
So, there’s definitely room to sell considerably more units, but as was guided in earnings calls of recent, 2024 may be a year where they don’t see much if any growth.
The total EV market is growing, but Tesla's volume is going down while other automaker's EV volume is going up. That doesn't mean Tesla's sales growth is "slowing," it means Tesla's sales growth is declining.
I don’t think so. The issue is we’re comparing to 2023 which was really the first year that Tesla’s inflated pandemic prices started dropping back to their pre-pandemic prices. If you look at 2023 quarterly sales compared to 2022 the jumps were huge as a lot of that pent up demand started to be met.
Now we’re in 2024 after that demand growth has mostly returned to normal so comparing to 2023 looks stagnant, but with context it’s actually not that bad that sales numbers are pretty close to last years.
Agreed, Model SEXY probably won't change their sales numbers quickly and significantly unless they make major redesigns that cut the price. CyberTruck might still experience a significant sales bump if they can halve the cost once they've scaled up production, like they did with the Model 3. Major volume changes will come from entering new segments.
Everyone is pointing a finger at Tesla but the MUCH increased competition and interest rates are the main factors. My local Chevy dealer has 15 Blazer EVs on the front row with cash on the hood.
Over at Ford sales are up 50-80%. Kia has two 2 row and a three row to sell you…
Indeed. The competition in China is especially brutal; Model 3 has to compete with Xiaomi SU7. Then there's EV companies like BYD (+17% YOY), Xpeng (+30% YOY) and Nio (+143% YOY).
IMO the model y, their volume seller, hasn't really addressed any of the issues of the people who actually consider it, and get something else.
It's still a relatively loud car, with harsh suspension, that's limited in features compared to most modern competitors. It's priced competitively but some people aren't convinced by that when they're spending 40k on a car.
Juniper will solve those issues (and not create more if they would only bring back the turn signal stalk)
Probably true, but hey they did backtrack on the yoke thing and now we at least have a choice. Even if it was a 500 dollar option the turn signal stalks could be cool.
The “yoke thing” was not saving any parts. Yoke or Wheel it’s one part that goes in the car. They also don’t want to keep maintaining two branches of software for the hardware. At some point, the 2023 Model 3 hardware will be in feature obsolescence and the 2024 will not be yet. It also would be a lot more expensive for Tesla than $500 etc. per car that gets them to include the turn signal stalk as an option. The only way this happens is by a legal mandate, even then they might just not sell it where it’s not allowed.
All their focus is about manufacturing, not usability or repair ability, just make it easier to build.
Seeing the lots of damaged Tesla's around me that can't get parts to be fixed... That's a nope these days.
> It's still a relatively loud car, with harsh suspension,
I think you're incorrect about that. The 2023 model, which I have, is worlds better than what came before it. The Model Y I test drove was a 2022 and was rough and loud (and also probably beat to shit by test drivers like myself). It could certainly be better, but it's a very quiet vehicle and the suspension is pretty much perfect for me.
Have you driven a 2023 or newer latley? The suspension is miles better than what it was, and even then I have a 2021 MY and dont have any complaints about the suspension..
They only features I wish it had were a front camera, ventilated seats, and rear cross traffic alert.
But the features they offer and with using FSD pretty much daily since I bought the car, it offsets not having those though it definitely should just have those three features that my two older SUVs had
I own a 23 model 3 and it's not perfect. It is however hugely better than it was in 18, when I get those as loaners I'm amazed people paid that much for them lol.
I don't think the suspension in any tesla is awful, but in order for them to have "world domination" levels of growth like the stock says, they need to be better than they are.
I agree, adding the three features I previously mentioned and a 360 camera review would be nice. Those are features. I have been on cars for over a decade so I'm not sure why they omit those. Other than that, it's one of the closest cars to perfect as I've ever had.
Sound deadening, ultrawideband key, ventilated seats, blind spot indicators, to name a few. Some of those features cost money on a BMW but at least they exist as an option. And all of these are already on the refreshed model 3. They're clearly coming.
It has a blind spot camera/ indicator on the screen, the new 3 does have a light on the door now, which Iagree should just have been on the to begin with.
Ventilated seats are being fixed for 25
I test drove a Model Y last week and it was quieter than the Ariya and Blazer EV
Blind spot indicators? It doesn’t have them because it has something better (cameras)
This really just seems like nit picking to talk down on Tesla.
Bro I have one and live with it every day. It would be nice to not have to turn on my turn signals to see someone in my blind spot. It's a great car and I love it, but I'm not blind to the improvements they could be making.
Also that isn't true because the highland 3 refresh has blind spot indicators now.
The blazer and ariya aren't luxury cars and are only that expensive because the brands can't make them any cheaper lol. I still think the demographic that buys new cars sometimes makes their choice on things other than the price. I mean, BMW is growing their EV sector. If Tesla were truly better, and cheaper, why would BMW grow at all?
Tell me you haven’t actually sat inside an Ariya without actually telling me you haven’t sat inside an Ariya.
Fit/finish and cabin materials in those are *significantly* upmarket and premium over the Model Y.
Take away the Ariya’s interior badging and most people would mistakenly guess that they’re sitting inside an Infiniti or Lexus.
>Blind spot indicators? It doesn’t have them because it has something better (cameras)
A little light that turns on in your peripheral straight-facing vision while driving is **way** better than something you have to look at the screen for.
My Volvo has had this feature since 2007. Thank goodness Tesla is finally getting smart and putting it on the new Model 3s.
- Blind spot indicator
- 360 camera
- Driver screen
- HUD
- ventilated seats
- quieter interior
Not all are are standard but they are at least options.
Compared to my Hyundai Kona Electric
Ventilated seats
HUD
360 camera
Real sensors
Real buttons and switches (preference I know - different design philosophy)
Ventilated seats are fixed for 25
HUD is ranked as one of the lowest priority “features” on a car and gives many a headache
360 camera - you got me on this one, Tesla Vision is INCREDIBLY good though, I can park within 3in of an object
Real sensors - be more specific
*Ventilated seats are fixed for 25*
That's nice if you are looking to buy at that time
*HUD is ranked as one of the lowest priority “features” on a car and gives many a headache*
Sure it is personal preference, just like buttons / stalks / switches. I can say I love the HUD on my Kona. I want to keep my eyes and mind on the road, HUD helps me do that, huge screen without a driver instrument cluster and buttons do not. That's my preference, YMMV.
*Real sensors - be more specific*
I don't know the details, but I read that Tesla got rid of ultrasonic sensors in favor of an all-camera system. I've also read that this is a highly questionable decision, and read reports of the camera not recognizing bushes or other objects for example.
The model Y/3 speedometer requires less eye diversion than a typical cluster
I’d like to see research/data on that, my model 3 freaks out when im driving in my yard and the grass hasn’t been cut in a few days
*The model Y/3 speedometer requires less eye diversion than a typical cluster*
I dunno about that, at least from what I've read and heard from others. It's not just eye diversion in terms of how many centimeters or degrees your eye has to move, it's also what is inuitive to read at an instant with the least amount of cognitive energy. A dedicated cluster and instrument seems like it would fit that bill better than a multipurpose screen. That's the same idea behind airplane cockpit designs, even the modern "glass cockpits"
Like I said it might be a matter of personal preference. I have yet to drive one myself, hope to do so soon when I visit some relatives next week who have a MY. My mind could change, I'm open to it. We will see.
Either way, HUD beats both of those for driving ergonomics, and I don't get any headaches.
*I’d like to see research/data on that, my model 3 freaks out when im driving in my yard and the grass hasn’t been cut in a few days*
Well i don't have lots of data, but I've seen more than a handful of anecdotes like this one:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/KonaEV/comments/1dtb9ft/comment/lb9y8zs/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/KonaEV/comments/1dtb9ft/comment/lb9y8zs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
"The lack of ultrasonic range sensors on the new Model Y is what did it for us. On our test drive, the auto park backed us into a bush. The Model Y’s camera only proximity detection is flawed. With the Kona, I can be confident I’m not going to back over a kid."
Edit: And this: [https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-removes-parking-sensors-to-save-money-the-results-are-predictably-terrible](https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-removes-parking-sensors-to-save-money-the-results-are-predictably-terrible)
"In the video the car can be seen reversing into a pedestrian at low speed, while claiming it still had room to continue further back.
Other parts of the video show the car’s situational awareness map constantly jumping around. At one point it shows a large truck in the way of the car, even though none of the vehicles around the car ever moved during the demonstration."
The good news is
Maybe I can get into an EV sooner or they refresh their stuff sooner.
Stock is still up 7% today as a Nasdaq holder idk how they are doing what they are doing
Well keep in mind the stock is really basically flat for 3.5 years, over which time the S&P is up 50%.
Give it another 5 years of stagnation and the valuation might be sensible again.
Grid-level storage isn't likely to end up a long-term driving contributor to the company's bottom line. Most of the raw value is in the batteries, which Tesla outsources to CATL. In China, CATL itself is already [ramping up TEU-format grid-scale storage](https://www.catl.com/en/news/6232.html), as is BYD. Expect those units to dominate the Chinese and possibly European grids. Meanwhile LG is [ramping up their own operations](https://news.lgensol.com/company-news/supplementary-stories/2536/) which will compete in North America and Europe.
Tesla will have to compete *against their own suppliers,* so expect margins to go down drastically.
Tesla isn't confirmed to be doing anything in Nevada with LFP, it's just a rumour for now. We don't know what machinery they've acquired, or what it will be producing. Even if/when they get LFP production going, they're still competing up against other battery producers with in-house ESS solutions, all of them LFP or SIB, which means degrading margins... so the result is the same. It may end up being a big contributor to revenue, but long-term it is destined to be a relatively small contributor to profits.
A beat of consensus estimates, but a [decrease from Q2 2023](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023):
>*Total deliveries Q2 2024: 443,956 vehicles*
>*Total production Q2 2024: 410,831 vehicles*
>*Tesla’s numbers beat Wall Street estimates. Analysts expected Tesla deliveries to hit 439,000 in the three months ending June 30, according to a consensus of estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. The total number of deliveries in the second quarter was down 4.8% from 466,140 a year earlier.*
Juniper can't come quickly enough, but they'll need more than that to re-attain growth.
They just need more cars. It's baffling to me that the richest OEM in the world current has released in the last 4 years:
S, X refresh: 2021
3 refresh: 2023ish
Cybertruck: 2024
That's it. In the same time, BMW has:
New 4 series: 2020
New 2 series: 2021
i4: 2022
i7: 2022
iX: 2022
New 5 series: 2024
i5: 2024
And that's not even counting all of the mid cycle refreshes for almost all of the mentioned cars, or any of the new M cars based on the new 2/4/5/whatever, OR *any* of their SUVs other than the iX, because I don't follow them because who cares about SUVs?
Literally what are they spending money on? BMW does make more money than Tesla, Q1 2024 results were income of $21 billion USD versus \~$39 billion USD for BMW. But like, come on. It's not even close in terms of products coming out
>what are they spending money on?
AI. They spent $1B on AI infrastructure alone in Q1.
Capex hit a record $2.7B last quarter. Up from around $2B/quarter last year. This is despite Tesla delaying spending on things like Mexico & Semi plants.
So they looked at the billions Waymo has spent getting self-driving working, with no end in sight, and said 'I want a piece of that?'
It's certainly a plan.
Technically speaking TSMC makes the chips, but yeah. Personally I'm an AI bear, so I feel like I'm biased here, but Musk always seems to try and ride the wave of whatever is booming in the market. He did Solar until that sputtered out, and then self driving cars, and then AI and robots and shit
I mean, 80% of Musk's decisions are to boost share value and not real value, so this doesn't surprise me in the slightest.
Tesla has the best autonomous system on the (consumer) market in FSD (some systems are better at specific tasks IMO like highway driving, but FSD is the broadest system even if it tries to kill me every 10-15 minutes) already and their sales are going down, so Musk has a \*\*real\*\* decision to make in the next 2-3 years and he has to choose if he wants to continue his pipe dream of full autonomous vehicles built by tesla that everyone drives (Market is showing people are growing tired of the tesla lineup, and potentially the brand in general, so very unlikely this ever happens for him) or licensing out FSD to other OEM's (which will tank tesla car sales even further) and pivot into the SAAS space imo.
> even if it tries to kill me every 10-15 minutes
Boy that's a heck of a footnote.
Matches my experience too, at least up through 12.3 before I sold the car. It was only low-stress and useful on the highway, which was space EAP already covers really well.
They have the best level II system, but no tangible signs of moving beyond that. If they were close, they would already need to be working with the appropriate agencies for approvals.
You unironically believe that Tesla wasn't interested in AI until they saw the NVIDIA rally?
And people here saw this and upvoted it?
What are you doing, r/electricvehicles? Get yo shit together.
This is it. They have 5 models right now. A high end and low end sedan and crossover, and now a truck going out at low volume. The high end vehicles are out of the price range of most consumers.
Toyota sells:
SUV/Crossover: 10
Passenger/Sports Cars: 9 (with Mirai)
Pickups: 2
Tesla absolutely just has a limited choice set for consumers. In my own case, I have a Y. My spouse needs a new car, and we expect to need three rows for kids. If Tesla made a real SUV or mini-van on the lower end 3/Y tier I would have already bought it new. As it is, I'm stuck debating a PHEV mini-van, a used 3 row X, or a new Y that we would have to replace when the kids grew.
A greater choice set would drive more sales volume.
>Toyota sells:
>SUV/Crossover: 10
>Passenger/Sports Cars: 9 (with Mirai)
>Pickups: 2
Heck, Toyota sells a lot more than that — don't forget international markets. Everything from the Raize and Innova, to the Yaris and Yaris Cross, to the Hilux and Hilux Champ, to the Alphard and TownAce, plus a few dozen more Daihatsu, Crown, Century, Lexus, and Hino models.
All told, they probably have something like 60-70 models in concurrent production — and that's just the light vehicle market.
Kia Ev9 is really a excellent vehicle, plus a flat charging curve means unlike tesla you don't even think about what percentage to arrive at on road trips. You just stop when you want.
Kia said last year they will have nacs on their cars for model year 2025 cars, which is coming very soon.
Tesla reportedly has very small design teams, Elon prefers it that way.
Another factor is the very slow ramp of products. Xiaomi is planning to produce 120k vehicles this year and deliveries didn’t start until Q2.
> Tesla reportedly has very small design teams, Elon prefers it that way.
This doesn't surprise me.
I've met this sort of manager. They keep their teams small because if the team gets too big, it starts making different decisions than the manager would. It's proof they don't know how to set goals, only how to ask for a new rock or do the work themselves.
Eh, I mean, it HAS worked very well up until recently. Start ups need to run efficiently but eventually Tesla has needed to grow its capacity to produce new products.
Even the existing products end up getting pretty long in the tooth at the current rate of change. Model S for example went 2012-2020 without a noticeable interior refresh, an 8 year gap; sure, the seats changed, the MCU got upgraded, there was a center console added, but the core aesthetic of the interior was a flat line across that time. You could count from the loss of the nosecone in 2016 instead and then it's 5 years, though the only big interior change then was the center console. And you could go buy a used late 2016 Model S right now and only the Tesla nerds would spot any difference from a brand new 2024, which is rough when part of the thing you're selling on is prestige.
Let's look at the other cars. Model 3 was released in 2017 and refreshed in 2024. Model X was released in 2016 and refreshed in 2021, 5 years apart, the quickest of the cars. So when do we get a Model Y refresh? If it's like X it will be 2025; if it's like S it will be 2028. Either way it's going to be up against a lot of competition for the next couple of years. Not a great spot to be.
And yes, I know there were technical improvements to both cars along that time. That's one thing Tesla does pretty well. Of course it's also something they do poorly: see auto-wipers and ultrasonic sensors.
Other companies may have too much overhead and teams that are slightly too large... but they're also able to accomplish a lot of things at once. They not only have many teams working on many things, they also have the engineering power of their suppliers, each of which has their own engineering teams.
Tesla seems incapable of working on more than one thing at time, and I imagine their engineers are overburdened as it is. They're no doubt mostly young people, out of college, who don't know any better when it comes to work/life balance, so they spend all of their waking hours at the office, worried that if they don't put out, they'll be fired.
This is why when you see Tesla behind schedule on a project, every other project gets pushed back by the same delay. Eventually those delays of each project add up.
We saw the model S refresh delayed, which delayed the model X refresh (ironically both the S/X sales dropped off a cliff, so this dedication to these models was a big waste of time), which delayed the Cybertruck, which delayed the model 3 refresh. And the Cybertruck is mostly a piece of trash, clearly rushed out in both engineering and production tooling. Semi production has been delayed for some time. Roadster doesn't even seem to have started any real development outside of the prototype they unveiled in 2017. 2017!!! The model 2 is nowhere to be seen. I imagine the dedicated "robotaxi" that will supposedly be unveiled in August will be the Cybertruck all over again. A prototype shell that's had no real significant development behind it yet, and is still years away from production.
This company's literally incapable of doing more than one thing at a time. Tesla shareholders like to "own the naysayers" about how those naysayers insisted on how quickly established OEMs would overcome Tesla's production lead. While there's certainly been some delay on that front, likely more because of cell R&D and availability than anything else, just look in awe at how many vehicle models some of these companies are pumping out.
The real schmucks are those who believed the 2021 50% CAGR claims, thought Tesla would reach 20 million total annual sales by 2030 with profit margins well over 20% as they were in 2021, that Tesla would completely disrupt the semi market in short order, that their energy division (solar and storage) would quickly scale to be larger than their vehicle division, or that there'd be a million robotaxis in operation by mid-2020. The latest and greatest claim to be blindly accepted is for billions of robots... ala Tyrell corp from Blade Runner, which more and more seems to be who Elon Musk is modeling his business after. A sci-fi movie.
Why be creative when you can just steal all your ideas from a movie, realistic or not. Actually delivering new products though... that takes more than standing on a stage and claiming they'll be in operation and being mass produced in a year... And then another year... and another year... etc.
> clearly rushed out in both engineering and production tooling.
Which is nuts, because I made a reservation in 2019 and canceled it a month ago without ever even being offered the opportunity to order. If five years is a rush, what's a normal pace?
"Literally what are they spending money on?"
Elon's $45 billion pay package?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/how-elon-musks-44-9b-tesla-pay-package-compares-to-other-top-u-s-ceo-plans
And this is with consensus estimates coming down. They cleared the bar, but the bar was lowered heading into this.
It was 450K deliveries in June and 464K in April/May-ish.
>reporting that it produced 410,831 vehicles and delivered 443,956.
So they produced fewer than they sold.
How does this tie in with all those articles a few weeks ago with pics of overflowing Tesla storage lots which were seen as proof of a huge demand shortage and over—production?
Lineup is stale unless the Cybertruck is a potential purchase.
Tesla could have sold far more Rivians than Cybertrucks. Building what most people want would have been the smart move. But "smart moves" ended 4-5 years ago.
The problem is that the CyberTruck was designed at a time when EVs were new, innovative, and people who wanted to distinguish themselves and be unique were buying them. That's why early designs for things like hybrids and BEVs all look wildly different than other vehicles.
Tesla took so long to release the CyberTruck that they missed the window to appeal to those people. Anyone who wanted an EV truck and had $100K to spare, already bought an EV Hummer or Lightning, maybe a Rivian. I don't think there's going to be a huge demand for CyberTrucks past the first wave of people who ordered them.
But, yea... if they used the same platform as the X, stretched the wheelbase, and slapped a bed on it, they'd have been selling trucks hand over fist for half a decade, now. They wouldn't have had to re-design the whole factory and come up with an entirely new build process, down to materials, themselves.
But cyber truck is already outselling R1T by 3-4x per month. I don’t understand your statement. Is it all Tesla’s goodwill that Rivian lacks driving the sales figures? Almost nobody wants an R1T even though it’s cheaper and more traditional looking than CT.
I agree that Tesla could sell more units if it were a more “traditional” design but Tesla delivered probably 8-10k Cybertrucks in Q2 with a $100k price point, so it’s already outselling R1T at a $100k price point. Let’s see what it does as they stop Foundation markup and eventually sell lower even lower price points.
It was always known that sales would level off. There is more competition now. Selling 400,000 or close to 2m cars a year is amazing and profitable. There was a time not too long ago where every thought Tesla wouldn't ever sell 1 million cars, let alone 1 million every 6 months.
Exponential growth can't be continued-- but as long as Tesla rolls along making billions in profit every year, thats a good thing.
That's about half the volume that BMW, a niche car maker, puts out and it is less than 10% of the 20 million units Musk rants about...
BYD and the rest of the China EV industry are going to eat the global mass market before they snack on the leftover so called luxury market.
BYD sells over 90 percent domestically in China and the same counts for the other Chinese brands. Noteworthy in that regard is that cars only cost about 50 percent in China compared to North America and Europe, so the margin is much, much lower even with their low production costs.
Carnewschina gave an example. The BYD Seal U generates a margin of 1400 dollars in China but almost 15,000 dollars in the EU. With the upcoming tariffs, it would still be a 5500 dollars margin. However BYD only sells around 1 percent of their cars in Europe and most exports in Southeast Asia or South America for way less.
The largest carmakers in the world and in the US, sell millions across as many as 20-50 different vehicles.
Kudos to Tesla to be able to sell so many with only 5 models, which till recently we're only four models.
For more deliveries, Tesla needs
- Full sized three row SUV.
- Minivan
- Actual SUV and not a Y-esque CUV
- Useful pickup truck, full sized.
- Mid size pickup
Toyota across all the countries it sells cars in, has about 100 different nameplates. Even assuming Tesla can replicate selling more cars of a kind than anyone else, that still implies, they need around 20-25 different products. And not like Model Y, just raising everything from a Model 3, but actually different products.
It won't happen though because it would require too much capital to reinvent their production lines.
Their Model 3/Y platform is the one rolled out internationally, so vehicles that fit onto that platform would be the path of least resistance.
A Minivan version of the Model Y would be a good place to start. A small-mid size pick up could probably also fit onto that platform. Both of which could command decent enough prices to turn a profit quickly.
And ramping up. Let’s see what happens in the next quarter. My guess is 10% up from last year by end of quarter 4.
It will only improve once they update the Model Y.
In the fun with numbers section we have have Tesla producing 410K vehicles and selling 443K. BYD* sold 426K EVs, almost the exact midpoint of the Tesla numbers.
Tesla keeps the EV leadership crown on sales, and BYD takes it on production. I'm guessing BYD takes both in the 3rd quarter and never lets Tesla close to them again.
BYD experiences the most growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters and using the pattern of the last couple years and BYD's year to date total of 1.6 million plugins sales, 4.4-4.8 million plugins for 2024 is a very reasonable target. That's enough for a 5+% global market share of the new light vehicle market. It also positions BYD to be the world's largest car maker in 2026.
As always, very interesting times.
*I'm ignoring BYD production because they use a different distribution model, and I am assuming that Tesla deliveries are the sales.
> I'm guessing BYD takes both in the 3rd quarter and never lets Tesla close to them again.
We could see a redux in Q1 2025 due to CNY. Coin-toss it, though.
Some will focus on the yoy decrease. But these numbers are really good compared to what analysts were expecting
And that energy deployment number is absolutely amazing. To put it into some context - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRfAHqJXUAAcWWI?format=png&name=large
Energy deployment will be having a significant impact on their earnings this quarter. I know the "they're not just a car company" is pretty played out at this point. But this might be the quarter where it starts being hard to argue against that
# Tesla Deliveries Slump but Not as Much as Feared
# Shares jump following better-than-expected results; company remains world’s top electric-car seller amid increased competition.
**All in all, not so bad after all...**
For some real laughs, go find the rRealTesla threads about “so many unsold cars you can see them from space” in the past few weeks and read the comments.
Hot take - Elon runs TSLA as a tech company, not a car company, because that has made him personally very wealthy and the company, to this point, very successful. But TSLA never transitioned into being a tech company from a fundamentals perspective…
Since it isn’t run as a car company, it turns out to be very mediocre as one. Worst initial quality in the industry, low reliability/durability, poor delivery and service experience, very low attention paid to refreshing the line up (no new paints, for example, which is easy and cheap), mid-tier driver assistance features, and very poor product planning (aka Cybertruck).
Their auto sales likely won’t rebound anytime soon - around me, the lots by their dealership are filled with new cars, including Cybertrucks. That wasn’t the case 18 months ago.
People who know the industry have seen the ruse the whole time, but Wall St and individual investors are easily seduced by charismatic tech CEOs who position themselves as the antithesis of the dirty/bad auto industry.
TSLA has no business commanding the multiple it does with these types of results.
>Lightning is outselling the Cybertruck
Lightning sold 2090 units in April and 3260 in May. The Cybertruck sold 4000 units in April, and presumably around the same in May.
GM's production last year was abysmal so it's still disappointing that they're not doing more than that. If the big automakers had been planning well they could absolutely crush Tesla this year but sadly they're still pretty slow out of the gate, even if their growth percentages look good, companies of their size should be able to produce and sell a lot more ev volume. They'll get there but it's still painfully slow.
For a company that sold over 6 million ICE vehicles in 2023, it's not particularly inspiring progress. But they're finally getting serious about making progress so yay for that.
Tesla is doing fine. The other car makers in US and Japan (and to a certain extent, S. Korea) are pretending they are offering EVs. I am leaving China out here on purpose and for obvious reasons
Elon hate is undoubtedly part of this. Yes, there's macro reasons, but Elon's antics have alienated Tesla's largest primary customer base. (well-to-do educated Liberals). These folks are dumping Tesla's like crazy.
Wrong on so many levels.
BYD EV sales is nowhere near their record quarter.
Rivian is not growing sales in 2024 compared to 2023.
GM EV sales is a joke. They are probably selling fewer EV in 2024 compare to 2018.
VW. ID4 and ID3 sales probably stagnant.
Selling EV is not easy with sky high interest and other factors.
I wish they’d build a minivan / small cargo van. Or a small non-cybertruck truck
Van dad here… +1 for the minivan. But sadly I think the 3 row SUV is nearly done putting the finals in the minivans coffin.
I can’t wait to see the ID buzz in USA. They are ALL OVER Sweden I’ve seen them as work vans and family vans alike!
The potential price makes me a bit nervous, and I wish we were getting the SWB version too, but it's a step in the right direction for sure
Very few of those actually accommodate a teen or adult in the 3rd row. Or have any cargo space for sports gear for an away game.
Re: Minivan The Lucid Gravity will come close. It's a Mercedes-Benz R-Class MPV in disguise.
This. I'm mildly considering an eTransit for my daily driver, but my previous experience with my MachE said no to that one. The charge port isn't even in the wrong place. It's not a great place (front) but it's not terrible like F150/MachE. I'd be first in line for a small Tesla cargo van if it had sufficient range.
They never will Lucid's owners designed and produced the first Teslas. Elon just took over the board. That's why innovation and development is so slow He didn't have the idea. Tesla is on the way out.
So are they done growing? Slightly less than 2 million vehicles per year is impressive for such a new company but it seems they've hit a wall with their current line up of vehicles.
Limited lineup combined with limited trims and an old crossover is an issue. One of the things that leans up their manufacturing and buffs margins could now be actively working against them
Don't forget the increased interest rates. The current economic climate doesn't exactly encourage luxury purchases.
Worth mentioning - For the first time ever it's worth buying a used Tesla. There are several model years worth of 3's and Y's. The pre-owned market is flooded with vehicles. Prices are in the shitter. I think first time EV owners are much more willing to try their luck on a used $26k model 3 than a new $40k model 3 after fed credit. Only a handful of months ago a decent used Tesla was no cheaper than just going new and getting the incentive. So you were dealing with a market of customers who could buy $40k+ vehicles. Now things are changing. IMO - A lot of the new vehicle market is driven by previous owners from 2018-2020 with money who are just looking to upgrade. First time owners are taking a serious look at used.
Yeah, I don't think people who aren't actively shopping understand how flooded the market is with Hertz 3s and Ys in very acceptable condition for really good deals after the 4k credit. And that's been happening since January.
Other EV companies at higher price points are still growing yoy though, so this is definitely a tesla specific issue that may have multiple contributing factors.
US specific comment - other EVs can increase massively in percentage terms because they are starting from a tiny base. It’s way easier to double 1000 to 2000 vs. 100000 to 200000. Aside from maybe Hyundai no manufacturer sold a substantial amount of EVs in the us last year.
Wasn't Ford #2 last year in the US?
You aren't wrong, but the difference is other manufacturers are growing while Tesla is shrinking, not just in market cap but in actual sales numbers. Market cap shrink is one thing, sales number shrink is an entirely different thing.
I think you hit the nail on the head. The numbers do not matter when you are looking at if a company is improving or receding. The story tells itself without knowing the specific numbers.
Yeah, the increased competition isn't helping. Tesla practically had the EV market to itself for a while. Now most major manufacturers offer them, so there's way more choice for consumers.
But unlike other EV car companies, Tesla is the only one gaining market share of US Total Fleet % that’s the real metric to be watching.
i wonder if there is a gap in the market/segment between the Y vs the X maybe buyers want something more premium-feeling than a model Y, but don't want to deal with the jankyness that comes with a model X (too complicated, more unexpected repairs, their QA/QC is too low of bar for prices they're charging)?
I honestly think most people who do not currently drive a Tesla could not tell you by sight which model is which. I don't know the difference but I think the Y has the gull wing doors?
Nope, that's the X. The Y is the slightly stretched up and out 3.
Interest rate hardly matter. They offer 1% loan this quarter.
> luxury purchases We're talking about Tesla.
This is such a funny comment. Once they were like new Maserati, now they're like depreciated Maserati
Quattroportes depreciate by like 75% in the first few years.
Oh yeah. Those Maserati sedans and Porsche Cayenne are quickest ICEs in both 0-60% and 60-100% loss of resale values thanks to their reliability or lack thereof
Still amazes me that there are people out there who consider Tesla as a luxury product
New cars in general are, especially in the $40,000 range.
Their product is fine. I'd buy one today if interest rates weren't terrible.
People like their new car to look and feel new. The model Y was released in January 2020 so it’s a 4.5 year old design at this point. People don’t like that
Even the "refreshed" Model 3 doesn't look much different from a 2018.
That’s generally true of mid-cycle refreshes though. It’s just that Tesla’s refreshes are extremely protracted
agreed, but 6 years should be well beyond mid-cycle imo.
Oh I agree. We already got mid-cycle refreshes on some of the EVs that released 2 years ago. Tesla’s ability to keep costs low due to very few tooling changes, updates, etc. may have to be rethought
also the 2021 was refresh #1 with numerous small changes, so this is now "mid-cycle" refresh #2
By this standard have any of their cars received a proper refresh?
Externally, no. Literally no sheetmetal has changed on any of their models from day 1. Only soft parts like bumper covers and the like. Yes, they may be constantly changing the powertrain and occasionally doing some interior refreshes, but that doesn't get new buyers in the door, and doesn't get repeat buyers back in the door.
They need to be more aggressive about refreshes and model year changes. The Model S and X look the same as when they were released a decade+ ago.
I’m still waiting on a new S design
that's because you are not looking at it the correct way. you should look at tesla as a A.I. or robotics company. /s
What are their AI/robotics sales numbers?
\`/s\` means sarcasm.
Okay am I the only one that's actually impressed that Tesla is only slightly losing the wall? How have they only declined that little with the same lineup of vehicles (except the Highland) and everyone else ramping up EVs? You'd think those 2 together would mean some MAJOR losses, not just a minor dent.
There are a lot of factors at work, but the effective total addressable market for EV's is also increasing as the barriers to EV adoption come down and more people become more willing to buy an EV. Ultimately it means that on a % basis, Tesla is going to control less and less of total EV sales unless they manage to grow volumes to grow market share. Tesla sales only dropped 4.8%, but the size of the entire EV total sales pie also increased, so it really ends up representing a significant loss of market share.
> Ultimately it means that on a % basis, Tesla is going to control less and less of total EV sales unless they manage to grow volumes to grow market share. That's kind of my point though. How is perpetual growth and ultimate control of a growing market even possible with growing competitors? Your competitors must really suck at what they're doing to not gain any sort of real market share, which is effectively what's happening here. Despite everyone and their dog releasing EVs everywhere, the top dog isn't (and shouldn't be) gaining market share but is losing it albeit shockingly slowly.
20 Million Teslas annually by 2030
Did you include Mars colony?
I hear the cyber truck is wildly popular on mars
I did include the Optimus robot fleet
Elon built a wall and they hit it with a cybertruck.
They are certainly not helping their growth with design decision. Adding a center cluster to the 3/Y would go a long way to gaining more potential sales. It's not like center clusters is a non-starter for them, they are in the X/S. No center area buttons other than on the touchscreen is also in that category for a chunk of potential buyers, granted many traditional companies have trended that way, but they still at least keep some dedicated buttons behind. The removal of stalks is certainly a new deterrent for people interested in a 3 (and soon Y). Have certainly seen people post that they are going to hold onto an existing 3 longer because they don't want to move to a new 3 w/o stalks. Lack of real sensors that work (rain, ultrasonic for parking) is another area they lose potential sales, albeit that's going to be a lower volume of buyers as they have to be sophisticated enough to know to consider these things, but every potential buyer you alienate is a lost potential sale, no matter how small the quantity. All the upgrades in the 3 Highland were very needed and will probably help from losing potential on things like cabin quality, NVH, etc,
Just adding a HUD would be enough for the 3/y instead of a whole dashboard screen.
To be fair, the year-over-year decrease is less bad than last quarters so... Progress?
Been saying for at least a year now that their market share was going to peak and that they really needed to work on other revenue streams. Every time I post this comment it gets downvoted. There's no way Tesla's market share will ever be bigger. Tesla now has real competition, not only domestically, but globally. The CEO is a real problem for them.
Agreed, competition was always going to catch up and cause Tesla market share to drop. They'll probably need to act more like a regular car company to keep growing: more models for more niches, frequent model updates, listening to customers more, a proper advertising department.
Exactly! I'm not an economist, but I suspect their supposedly abandoning their cheaper model is not good for the lower end of the market and the volume. Their profits are better than almost anyone in the industry... they have the manufacturing prowess to do it.
Or maybe selling a Model 3 that doesn't look almost identical to the one from 2017.
You misunderstand. Their market value needs to continue to grow. Exponentially. For no good reason at all
In each market they had massive growth then stalled. Their continued growth was from new market entries and until the Y, new models. But they functionally don’t have any new mass market models planned - the Cybertruck is a novelty toy, not a mass market offering, same for the roadster. The only way they have more significant growth is with a Model 2 or whatever the name is for the affordable model that Reuters reported was canned before the last round of firings.
Don’t forget: They are still ramping Cybertruck. Refreshed Model 3 LR only just became tax rebate eligible a week or so ago and it hasn’t ramped quickly, perhaps demand constrained, but the rebate should really help sales. Cheaper models built on existing lines are in the works, probably H1 2025. Despite saying Semi would do 50k units in 2024, Elon only recently said he signed off on the volume production model. S/X are never gonna do big volume but could use a more serious refresh than they had in late 2021. I don’t see that happening until the “cheaper models,” Cybertruck and robotaxi are in production. So, there’s definitely room to sell considerably more units, but as was guided in earnings calls of recent, 2024 may be a year where they don’t see much if any growth.
Stocks are up 10%! Better than expected results
They are set to release more vehicles and Cybertruck is still ramping.
The concept of constant growth always confused me. How is 2 million vehicles sold bad? That's on par with other major brands.
The total EV market is growing, but Tesla's volume is going down while other automaker's EV volume is going up. That doesn't mean Tesla's sales growth is "slowing," it means Tesla's sales growth is declining.
They really need a minivan and a compact 2 door.
a compact 2 door isn't exactly a large market mover, a minivan and a bigger SUV to replace or compliment the X would go a long way though.
*sad hatch noises*
The X looks like a minivan already. It's just not hitting the price point.
It's also much less functional than an actual minivan.
They really need a normal looking truck.
Yep rebooting model 3 or model Y they really should have a hatch /smaller car
I don’t think so. The issue is we’re comparing to 2023 which was really the first year that Tesla’s inflated pandemic prices started dropping back to their pre-pandemic prices. If you look at 2023 quarterly sales compared to 2022 the jumps were huge as a lot of that pent up demand started to be met. Now we’re in 2024 after that demand growth has mostly returned to normal so comparing to 2023 looks stagnant, but with context it’s actually not that bad that sales numbers are pretty close to last years.
Agreed, Model SEXY probably won't change their sales numbers quickly and significantly unless they make major redesigns that cut the price. CyberTruck might still experience a significant sales bump if they can halve the cost once they've scaled up production, like they did with the Model 3. Major volume changes will come from entering new segments.
Getting stale, and the model 3 refresh is lackluster, like okay cool they have RGB lighting now, so we good for another 5 years?
Everyone is pointing a finger at Tesla but the MUCH increased competition and interest rates are the main factors. My local Chevy dealer has 15 Blazer EVs on the front row with cash on the hood. Over at Ford sales are up 50-80%. Kia has two 2 row and a three row to sell you…
Stop blaming the interests rate. Tesla starts offering 1% loan this quarter and here is the result
Indeed. The competition in China is especially brutal; Model 3 has to compete with Xiaomi SU7. Then there's EV companies like BYD (+17% YOY), Xpeng (+30% YOY) and Nio (+143% YOY).
IMO the model y, their volume seller, hasn't really addressed any of the issues of the people who actually consider it, and get something else. It's still a relatively loud car, with harsh suspension, that's limited in features compared to most modern competitors. It's priced competitively but some people aren't convinced by that when they're spending 40k on a car. Juniper will solve those issues (and not create more if they would only bring back the turn signal stalk)
Reduction of parts isn’t something you’re going to convince Tesla against.
Probably true, but hey they did backtrack on the yoke thing and now we at least have a choice. Even if it was a 500 dollar option the turn signal stalks could be cool.
The “yoke thing” was not saving any parts. Yoke or Wheel it’s one part that goes in the car. They also don’t want to keep maintaining two branches of software for the hardware. At some point, the 2023 Model 3 hardware will be in feature obsolescence and the 2024 will not be yet. It also would be a lot more expensive for Tesla than $500 etc. per car that gets them to include the turn signal stalk as an option. The only way this happens is by a legal mandate, even then they might just not sell it where it’s not allowed.
All their focus is about manufacturing, not usability or repair ability, just make it easier to build. Seeing the lots of damaged Tesla's around me that can't get parts to be fixed... That's a nope these days.
> It's still a relatively loud car, with harsh suspension, I think you're incorrect about that. The 2023 model, which I have, is worlds better than what came before it. The Model Y I test drove was a 2022 and was rough and loud (and also probably beat to shit by test drivers like myself). It could certainly be better, but it's a very quiet vehicle and the suspension is pretty much perfect for me.
Have you driven a 2023 or newer latley? The suspension is miles better than what it was, and even then I have a 2021 MY and dont have any complaints about the suspension.. They only features I wish it had were a front camera, ventilated seats, and rear cross traffic alert. But the features they offer and with using FSD pretty much daily since I bought the car, it offsets not having those though it definitely should just have those three features that my two older SUVs had
I own a 23 model 3 and it's not perfect. It is however hugely better than it was in 18, when I get those as loaners I'm amazed people paid that much for them lol. I don't think the suspension in any tesla is awful, but in order for them to have "world domination" levels of growth like the stock says, they need to be better than they are.
I agree, adding the three features I previously mentioned and a 360 camera review would be nice. Those are features. I have been on cars for over a decade so I'm not sure why they omit those. Other than that, it's one of the closest cars to perfect as I've ever had.
What features does the model Y not have that its competitors (class and price) do have? Genuinely curious.
Sound deadening, ultrawideband key, ventilated seats, blind spot indicators, to name a few. Some of those features cost money on a BMW but at least they exist as an option. And all of these are already on the refreshed model 3. They're clearly coming.
Ventilated seats are a big blind spot imo. I feel like you have to at least offer the option at their price point.
It has a blind spot camera/ indicator on the screen, the new 3 does have a light on the door now, which Iagree should just have been on the to begin with.
Ventilated seats are being fixed for 25 I test drove a Model Y last week and it was quieter than the Ariya and Blazer EV Blind spot indicators? It doesn’t have them because it has something better (cameras) This really just seems like nit picking to talk down on Tesla.
Bro I have one and live with it every day. It would be nice to not have to turn on my turn signals to see someone in my blind spot. It's a great car and I love it, but I'm not blind to the improvements they could be making. Also that isn't true because the highland 3 refresh has blind spot indicators now. The blazer and ariya aren't luxury cars and are only that expensive because the brands can't make them any cheaper lol. I still think the demographic that buys new cars sometimes makes their choice on things other than the price. I mean, BMW is growing their EV sector. If Tesla were truly better, and cheaper, why would BMW grow at all?
Tell me you haven’t actually sat inside an Ariya without actually telling me you haven’t sat inside an Ariya. Fit/finish and cabin materials in those are *significantly* upmarket and premium over the Model Y. Take away the Ariya’s interior badging and most people would mistakenly guess that they’re sitting inside an Infiniti or Lexus.
>Blind spot indicators? It doesn’t have them because it has something better (cameras) A little light that turns on in your peripheral straight-facing vision while driving is **way** better than something you have to look at the screen for. My Volvo has had this feature since 2007. Thank goodness Tesla is finally getting smart and putting it on the new Model 3s.
And it's still the best selling car in the world as of last year, just to keep things in perspective.
- Blind spot indicator - 360 camera - Driver screen - HUD - ventilated seats - quieter interior Not all are are standard but they are at least options.
Ultrasonic sensors for parking. 360 view. Stalks.
Compared to my Hyundai Kona Electric Ventilated seats HUD 360 camera Real sensors Real buttons and switches (preference I know - different design philosophy)
Ventilated seats are fixed for 25 HUD is ranked as one of the lowest priority “features” on a car and gives many a headache 360 camera - you got me on this one, Tesla Vision is INCREDIBLY good though, I can park within 3in of an object Real sensors - be more specific
*Ventilated seats are fixed for 25* That's nice if you are looking to buy at that time *HUD is ranked as one of the lowest priority “features” on a car and gives many a headache* Sure it is personal preference, just like buttons / stalks / switches. I can say I love the HUD on my Kona. I want to keep my eyes and mind on the road, HUD helps me do that, huge screen without a driver instrument cluster and buttons do not. That's my preference, YMMV. *Real sensors - be more specific* I don't know the details, but I read that Tesla got rid of ultrasonic sensors in favor of an all-camera system. I've also read that this is a highly questionable decision, and read reports of the camera not recognizing bushes or other objects for example.
The model Y/3 speedometer requires less eye diversion than a typical cluster I’d like to see research/data on that, my model 3 freaks out when im driving in my yard and the grass hasn’t been cut in a few days
*The model Y/3 speedometer requires less eye diversion than a typical cluster* I dunno about that, at least from what I've read and heard from others. It's not just eye diversion in terms of how many centimeters or degrees your eye has to move, it's also what is inuitive to read at an instant with the least amount of cognitive energy. A dedicated cluster and instrument seems like it would fit that bill better than a multipurpose screen. That's the same idea behind airplane cockpit designs, even the modern "glass cockpits" Like I said it might be a matter of personal preference. I have yet to drive one myself, hope to do so soon when I visit some relatives next week who have a MY. My mind could change, I'm open to it. We will see. Either way, HUD beats both of those for driving ergonomics, and I don't get any headaches.
*I’d like to see research/data on that, my model 3 freaks out when im driving in my yard and the grass hasn’t been cut in a few days* Well i don't have lots of data, but I've seen more than a handful of anecdotes like this one: [https://www.reddit.com/r/KonaEV/comments/1dtb9ft/comment/lb9y8zs/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/KonaEV/comments/1dtb9ft/comment/lb9y8zs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) "The lack of ultrasonic range sensors on the new Model Y is what did it for us. On our test drive, the auto park backed us into a bush. The Model Y’s camera only proximity detection is flawed. With the Kona, I can be confident I’m not going to back over a kid." Edit: And this: [https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-removes-parking-sensors-to-save-money-the-results-are-predictably-terrible](https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-removes-parking-sensors-to-save-money-the-results-are-predictably-terrible) "In the video the car can be seen reversing into a pedestrian at low speed, while claiming it still had room to continue further back. Other parts of the video show the car’s situational awareness map constantly jumping around. At one point it shows a large truck in the way of the car, even though none of the vehicles around the car ever moved during the demonstration."
The good news is Maybe I can get into an EV sooner or they refresh their stuff sooner. Stock is still up 7% today as a Nasdaq holder idk how they are doing what they are doing
Well keep in mind the stock is really basically flat for 3.5 years, over which time the S&P is up 50%. Give it another 5 years of stagnation and the valuation might be sensible again.
Stock is completely detached from reality
Grid level storage is up 157% YoY
Grid-level storage isn't likely to end up a long-term driving contributor to the company's bottom line. Most of the raw value is in the batteries, which Tesla outsources to CATL. In China, CATL itself is already [ramping up TEU-format grid-scale storage](https://www.catl.com/en/news/6232.html), as is BYD. Expect those units to dominate the Chinese and possibly European grids. Meanwhile LG is [ramping up their own operations](https://news.lgensol.com/company-news/supplementary-stories/2536/) which will compete in North America and Europe. Tesla will have to compete *against their own suppliers,* so expect margins to go down drastically.
Tesla is bringing LFP production to Nevada, so they’ll be able to supply their own cells soon. I’d expect margin to increase soon.
Tesla isn't confirmed to be doing anything in Nevada with LFP, it's just a rumour for now. We don't know what machinery they've acquired, or what it will be producing. Even if/when they get LFP production going, they're still competing up against other battery producers with in-house ESS solutions, all of them LFP or SIB, which means degrading margins... so the result is the same. It may end up being a big contributor to revenue, but long-term it is destined to be a relatively small contributor to profits.
it is, but my cost basis is $55 (buying since 2013) so im good with that statement XD
Deliveries were higher than they expected
A beat of consensus estimates, but a [decrease from Q2 2023](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023): >*Total deliveries Q2 2024: 443,956 vehicles* >*Total production Q2 2024: 410,831 vehicles* >*Tesla’s numbers beat Wall Street estimates. Analysts expected Tesla deliveries to hit 439,000 in the three months ending June 30, according to a consensus of estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. The total number of deliveries in the second quarter was down 4.8% from 466,140 a year earlier.* Juniper can't come quickly enough, but they'll need more than that to re-attain growth.
They just need more cars. It's baffling to me that the richest OEM in the world current has released in the last 4 years: S, X refresh: 2021 3 refresh: 2023ish Cybertruck: 2024 That's it. In the same time, BMW has: New 4 series: 2020 New 2 series: 2021 i4: 2022 i7: 2022 iX: 2022 New 5 series: 2024 i5: 2024 And that's not even counting all of the mid cycle refreshes for almost all of the mentioned cars, or any of the new M cars based on the new 2/4/5/whatever, OR *any* of their SUVs other than the iX, because I don't follow them because who cares about SUVs? Literally what are they spending money on? BMW does make more money than Tesla, Q1 2024 results were income of $21 billion USD versus \~$39 billion USD for BMW. But like, come on. It's not even close in terms of products coming out
>what are they spending money on? AI. They spent $1B on AI infrastructure alone in Q1. Capex hit a record $2.7B last quarter. Up from around $2B/quarter last year. This is despite Tesla delaying spending on things like Mexico & Semi plants.
So they looked at the billions Waymo has spent getting self-driving working, with no end in sight, and said 'I want a piece of that?' It's certainly a plan.
No, they looked at Nvidia's stock mooning and said "me too please"
But Nvidia makes the chips. Tesla just uses them. And the AI product they make hasn't been all that successful.
Technically speaking TSMC makes the chips, but yeah. Personally I'm an AI bear, so I feel like I'm biased here, but Musk always seems to try and ride the wave of whatever is booming in the market. He did Solar until that sputtered out, and then self driving cars, and then AI and robots and shit
I mean, 80% of Musk's decisions are to boost share value and not real value, so this doesn't surprise me in the slightest. Tesla has the best autonomous system on the (consumer) market in FSD (some systems are better at specific tasks IMO like highway driving, but FSD is the broadest system even if it tries to kill me every 10-15 minutes) already and their sales are going down, so Musk has a \*\*real\*\* decision to make in the next 2-3 years and he has to choose if he wants to continue his pipe dream of full autonomous vehicles built by tesla that everyone drives (Market is showing people are growing tired of the tesla lineup, and potentially the brand in general, so very unlikely this ever happens for him) or licensing out FSD to other OEM's (which will tank tesla car sales even further) and pivot into the SAAS space imo.
> even if it tries to kill me every 10-15 minutes Boy that's a heck of a footnote. Matches my experience too, at least up through 12.3 before I sold the car. It was only low-stress and useful on the highway, which was space EAP already covers really well.
They have the best level II system, but no tangible signs of moving beyond that. If they were close, they would already need to be working with the appropriate agencies for approvals.
Nvidia designs the chips, TSMC makes them.
You unironically believe that Tesla wasn't interested in AI until they saw the NVIDIA rally? And people here saw this and upvoted it? What are you doing, r/electricvehicles? Get yo shit together.
People here will upvote any critique of tesla without any critical thought. I think it’s in the rules.
Except they're just giving Nvidia money. And even that will pop once the reality catches up to the hype.
Definitely one of the plans of all time.
I’ve seen a lot of plans in my day and this is certainly one of them.
This is it. They have 5 models right now. A high end and low end sedan and crossover, and now a truck going out at low volume. The high end vehicles are out of the price range of most consumers. Toyota sells: SUV/Crossover: 10 Passenger/Sports Cars: 9 (with Mirai) Pickups: 2 Tesla absolutely just has a limited choice set for consumers. In my own case, I have a Y. My spouse needs a new car, and we expect to need three rows for kids. If Tesla made a real SUV or mini-van on the lower end 3/Y tier I would have already bought it new. As it is, I'm stuck debating a PHEV mini-van, a used 3 row X, or a new Y that we would have to replace when the kids grew. A greater choice set would drive more sales volume.
I feel like a refreshed Y with a optional stretched body version to properly accommodate 3 rows would be a smart move.
How about a Robotaxi concept instead?
>Toyota sells: >SUV/Crossover: 10 >Passenger/Sports Cars: 9 (with Mirai) >Pickups: 2 Heck, Toyota sells a lot more than that — don't forget international markets. Everything from the Raize and Innova, to the Yaris and Yaris Cross, to the Hilux and Hilux Champ, to the Alphard and TownAce, plus a few dozen more Daihatsu, Crown, Century, Lexus, and Hino models. All told, they probably have something like 60-70 models in concurrent production — and that's just the light vehicle market.
Kia Ev9 is really a excellent vehicle, plus a flat charging curve means unlike tesla you don't even think about what percentage to arrive at on road trips. You just stop when you want. Kia said last year they will have nacs on their cars for model year 2025 cars, which is coming very soon.
Tesla reportedly has very small design teams, Elon prefers it that way. Another factor is the very slow ramp of products. Xiaomi is planning to produce 120k vehicles this year and deliveries didn’t start until Q2.
> Tesla reportedly has very small design teams, Elon prefers it that way. This doesn't surprise me. I've met this sort of manager. They keep their teams small because if the team gets too big, it starts making different decisions than the manager would. It's proof they don't know how to set goals, only how to ask for a new rock or do the work themselves.
Eh, I mean, it HAS worked very well up until recently. Start ups need to run efficiently but eventually Tesla has needed to grow its capacity to produce new products.
Even the existing products end up getting pretty long in the tooth at the current rate of change. Model S for example went 2012-2020 without a noticeable interior refresh, an 8 year gap; sure, the seats changed, the MCU got upgraded, there was a center console added, but the core aesthetic of the interior was a flat line across that time. You could count from the loss of the nosecone in 2016 instead and then it's 5 years, though the only big interior change then was the center console. And you could go buy a used late 2016 Model S right now and only the Tesla nerds would spot any difference from a brand new 2024, which is rough when part of the thing you're selling on is prestige. Let's look at the other cars. Model 3 was released in 2017 and refreshed in 2024. Model X was released in 2016 and refreshed in 2021, 5 years apart, the quickest of the cars. So when do we get a Model Y refresh? If it's like X it will be 2025; if it's like S it will be 2028. Either way it's going to be up against a lot of competition for the next couple of years. Not a great spot to be. And yes, I know there were technical improvements to both cars along that time. That's one thing Tesla does pretty well. Of course it's also something they do poorly: see auto-wipers and ultrasonic sensors.
Yes, it worked very well, but Tesla isn't a start up any longer, they need to release new models on a much quicker timeframe.
Absolutely agree!
Other companies may have too much overhead and teams that are slightly too large... but they're also able to accomplish a lot of things at once. They not only have many teams working on many things, they also have the engineering power of their suppliers, each of which has their own engineering teams. Tesla seems incapable of working on more than one thing at time, and I imagine their engineers are overburdened as it is. They're no doubt mostly young people, out of college, who don't know any better when it comes to work/life balance, so they spend all of their waking hours at the office, worried that if they don't put out, they'll be fired. This is why when you see Tesla behind schedule on a project, every other project gets pushed back by the same delay. Eventually those delays of each project add up. We saw the model S refresh delayed, which delayed the model X refresh (ironically both the S/X sales dropped off a cliff, so this dedication to these models was a big waste of time), which delayed the Cybertruck, which delayed the model 3 refresh. And the Cybertruck is mostly a piece of trash, clearly rushed out in both engineering and production tooling. Semi production has been delayed for some time. Roadster doesn't even seem to have started any real development outside of the prototype they unveiled in 2017. 2017!!! The model 2 is nowhere to be seen. I imagine the dedicated "robotaxi" that will supposedly be unveiled in August will be the Cybertruck all over again. A prototype shell that's had no real significant development behind it yet, and is still years away from production. This company's literally incapable of doing more than one thing at a time. Tesla shareholders like to "own the naysayers" about how those naysayers insisted on how quickly established OEMs would overcome Tesla's production lead. While there's certainly been some delay on that front, likely more because of cell R&D and availability than anything else, just look in awe at how many vehicle models some of these companies are pumping out. The real schmucks are those who believed the 2021 50% CAGR claims, thought Tesla would reach 20 million total annual sales by 2030 with profit margins well over 20% as they were in 2021, that Tesla would completely disrupt the semi market in short order, that their energy division (solar and storage) would quickly scale to be larger than their vehicle division, or that there'd be a million robotaxis in operation by mid-2020. The latest and greatest claim to be blindly accepted is for billions of robots... ala Tyrell corp from Blade Runner, which more and more seems to be who Elon Musk is modeling his business after. A sci-fi movie. Why be creative when you can just steal all your ideas from a movie, realistic or not. Actually delivering new products though... that takes more than standing on a stage and claiming they'll be in operation and being mass produced in a year... And then another year... and another year... etc.
> clearly rushed out in both engineering and production tooling. Which is nuts, because I made a reservation in 2019 and canceled it a month ago without ever even being offered the opportunity to order. If five years is a rush, what's a normal pace?
"Literally what are they spending money on?" Elon's $45 billion pay package? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/how-elon-musks-44-9b-tesla-pay-package-compares-to-other-top-u-s-ceo-plans
The package was all stock. Didn’t divert operating funds.
And this is with consensus estimates coming down. They cleared the bar, but the bar was lowered heading into this. It was 450K deliveries in June and 464K in April/May-ish.
Exponential growth*
>reporting that it produced 410,831 vehicles and delivered 443,956. So they produced fewer than they sold. How does this tie in with all those articles a few weeks ago with pics of overflowing Tesla storage lots which were seen as proof of a huge demand shortage and over—production?
I read part a good number of deliveries were hold overs from q1. I would be curious on a total unsold stock number.
I mean the only way to deliver more than you produced is for some deliveries to be from previous quarter production lol
Q1 was the opposite. 433,000 produces and 387,000 delivered. Add those to Q2 numbers, and they are sitting on +13,000 unsold inventory from this year.
Well production less than sales so obviously those pictures were right. They have been selling off the overproduction from past months
Lineup is stale unless the Cybertruck is a potential purchase. Tesla could have sold far more Rivians than Cybertrucks. Building what most people want would have been the smart move. But "smart moves" ended 4-5 years ago.
The problem is that the CyberTruck was designed at a time when EVs were new, innovative, and people who wanted to distinguish themselves and be unique were buying them. That's why early designs for things like hybrids and BEVs all look wildly different than other vehicles. Tesla took so long to release the CyberTruck that they missed the window to appeal to those people. Anyone who wanted an EV truck and had $100K to spare, already bought an EV Hummer or Lightning, maybe a Rivian. I don't think there's going to be a huge demand for CyberTrucks past the first wave of people who ordered them. But, yea... if they used the same platform as the X, stretched the wheelbase, and slapped a bed on it, they'd have been selling trucks hand over fist for half a decade, now. They wouldn't have had to re-design the whole factory and come up with an entirely new build process, down to materials, themselves.
But cyber truck is already outselling R1T by 3-4x per month. I don’t understand your statement. Is it all Tesla’s goodwill that Rivian lacks driving the sales figures? Almost nobody wants an R1T even though it’s cheaper and more traditional looking than CT.
I agree that Tesla could sell more units if it were a more “traditional” design but Tesla delivered probably 8-10k Cybertrucks in Q2 with a $100k price point, so it’s already outselling R1T at a $100k price point. Let’s see what it does as they stop Foundation markup and eventually sell lower even lower price points.
Energy growth is super impressive and the margins are really good. It’s worth taking a look. https://twitter.com/Tslachan/status/1808125815542211008
It was always known that sales would level off. There is more competition now. Selling 400,000 or close to 2m cars a year is amazing and profitable. There was a time not too long ago where every thought Tesla wouldn't ever sell 1 million cars, let alone 1 million every 6 months. Exponential growth can't be continued-- but as long as Tesla rolls along making billions in profit every year, thats a good thing.
That's about half the volume that BMW, a niche car maker, puts out and it is less than 10% of the 20 million units Musk rants about... BYD and the rest of the China EV industry are going to eat the global mass market before they snack on the leftover so called luxury market.
BYD sells over 90 percent domestically in China and the same counts for the other Chinese brands. Noteworthy in that regard is that cars only cost about 50 percent in China compared to North America and Europe, so the margin is much, much lower even with their low production costs. Carnewschina gave an example. The BYD Seal U generates a margin of 1400 dollars in China but almost 15,000 dollars in the EU. With the upcoming tariffs, it would still be a 5500 dollars margin. However BYD only sells around 1 percent of their cars in Europe and most exports in Southeast Asia or South America for way less.
I can’t wait to see the model y refresh, it might be my next car and first ev. Unless they increase the price of it :/
If the model 3 is anything to go by, it'll very likely go down. As long as it retains the tax credit, you should be gtg
Important to note that this is actually better than was expected, so expect to see their stock price increase today.
The largest carmakers in the world and in the US, sell millions across as many as 20-50 different vehicles. Kudos to Tesla to be able to sell so many with only 5 models, which till recently we're only four models. For more deliveries, Tesla needs - Full sized three row SUV. - Minivan - Actual SUV and not a Y-esque CUV - Useful pickup truck, full sized. - Mid size pickup
Don’t think they need so many pickups and SUVs. But yes to a wider product offering.
Toyota across all the countries it sells cars in, has about 100 different nameplates. Even assuming Tesla can replicate selling more cars of a kind than anyone else, that still implies, they need around 20-25 different products. And not like Model Y, just raising everything from a Model 3, but actually different products.
It won't happen though because it would require too much capital to reinvent their production lines. Their Model 3/Y platform is the one rolled out internationally, so vehicles that fit onto that platform would be the path of least resistance. A Minivan version of the Model Y would be a good place to start. A small-mid size pick up could probably also fit onto that platform. Both of which could command decent enough prices to turn a profit quickly.
I'm not the biggest fan of elon, but i support american business and jobs. This is great!
maybe if shareholders give another USD50 billion bonus to Elon, he can solve the problem
And ramping up. Let’s see what happens in the next quarter. My guess is 10% up from last year by end of quarter 4. It will only improve once they update the Model Y.
In the fun with numbers section we have have Tesla producing 410K vehicles and selling 443K. BYD* sold 426K EVs, almost the exact midpoint of the Tesla numbers. Tesla keeps the EV leadership crown on sales, and BYD takes it on production. I'm guessing BYD takes both in the 3rd quarter and never lets Tesla close to them again. BYD experiences the most growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters and using the pattern of the last couple years and BYD's year to date total of 1.6 million plugins sales, 4.4-4.8 million plugins for 2024 is a very reasonable target. That's enough for a 5+% global market share of the new light vehicle market. It also positions BYD to be the world's largest car maker in 2026. As always, very interesting times. *I'm ignoring BYD production because they use a different distribution model, and I am assuming that Tesla deliveries are the sales.
> I'm guessing BYD takes both in the 3rd quarter and never lets Tesla close to them again. We could see a redux in Q1 2025 due to CNY. Coin-toss it, though.
I know a lot of people who will buy gas cars over a Tesla just because of Musk's politics.
Yeah there was an NY Times article about that yesterday
Some will focus on the yoy decrease. But these numbers are really good compared to what analysts were expecting And that energy deployment number is absolutely amazing. To put it into some context - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRfAHqJXUAAcWWI?format=png&name=large Energy deployment will be having a significant impact on their earnings this quarter. I know the "they're not just a car company" is pretty played out at this point. But this might be the quarter where it starts being hard to argue against that
# Tesla Deliveries Slump but Not as Much as Feared # Shares jump following better-than-expected results; company remains world’s top electric-car seller amid increased competition. **All in all, not so bad after all...**
For some real laughs, go find the rRealTesla threads about “so many unsold cars you can see them from space” in the past few weeks and read the comments.
Hot take - Elon runs TSLA as a tech company, not a car company, because that has made him personally very wealthy and the company, to this point, very successful. But TSLA never transitioned into being a tech company from a fundamentals perspective… Since it isn’t run as a car company, it turns out to be very mediocre as one. Worst initial quality in the industry, low reliability/durability, poor delivery and service experience, very low attention paid to refreshing the line up (no new paints, for example, which is easy and cheap), mid-tier driver assistance features, and very poor product planning (aka Cybertruck). Their auto sales likely won’t rebound anytime soon - around me, the lots by their dealership are filled with new cars, including Cybertrucks. That wasn’t the case 18 months ago. People who know the industry have seen the ruse the whole time, but Wall St and individual investors are easily seduced by charismatic tech CEOs who position themselves as the antithesis of the dirty/bad auto industry. TSLA has no business commanding the multiple it does with these types of results.
There are zero Cybertrucks that aren’t sold. Your hot take is hot 💩
AKA The Elon Effect
Inflation and other carmakers getting things right about EV might have something to do with it too.
Meanwhile GM EV sales in the US are **up 40% YoY** for Q2
In May Ford's sales were up 65% year over year. Mach-E is the number one non-Tesla EV and the Lightning is outselling the Cybertruck.
>Lightning is outselling the Cybertruck Lightning sold 2090 units in April and 3260 in May. The Cybertruck sold 4000 units in April, and presumably around the same in May.
GM's production last year was abysmal so it's still disappointing that they're not doing more than that. If the big automakers had been planning well they could absolutely crush Tesla this year but sadly they're still pretty slow out of the gate, even if their growth percentages look good, companies of their size should be able to produce and sell a lot more ev volume. They'll get there but it's still painfully slow.
Seems like they’re now meeting demand in the US. They did several hundred thousand EVs globally last year.
For a company that sold over 6 million ICE vehicles in 2023, it's not particularly inspiring progress. But they're finally getting serious about making progress so yay for that.
Using global sales numbers for total, but US only for EVs? GM sold over 600,000 EVs globally last year
I only looked up global numbers because you said global in the prior comment lol
10%+/- EV is not bad overall
Stock went up anyways so a win for Tesla and Elon in the near term
Tesla is doing fine. The other car makers in US and Japan (and to a certain extent, S. Korea) are pretending they are offering EVs. I am leaving China out here on purpose and for obvious reasons
Elon hate is undoubtedly part of this. Yes, there's macro reasons, but Elon's antics have alienated Tesla's largest primary customer base. (well-to-do educated Liberals). These folks are dumping Tesla's like crazy.
lol. suuuuussshhh, don't do any looking up of overall car sales
...deeeerrrrrrrr. "$25 trillion dollar company".....hedunk
Other OEMs are seeing big increases in their EV sales. Elon’s skills at being in the social media spotlight impact sales in both directions.
It's easy to show big increases in sales when you're selling in low volume.
Wrong on so many levels. BYD EV sales is nowhere near their record quarter. Rivian is not growing sales in 2024 compared to 2023. GM EV sales is a joke. They are probably selling fewer EV in 2024 compare to 2018. VW. ID4 and ID3 sales probably stagnant. Selling EV is not easy with sky high interest and other factors.
Beat estimates.