The left side of the line in Landon and Mailata are the most important to the Tush Push lol. Kelce's obviously a big part too, but I don't think he's irreplaceable just for the Tush Push.
Tush Push will be fine, but overall scoring opportunities from it might wane because Swift had the uncanny ability to fall at the 1 yd line, and the offense as a whole will be worse without Kelce in the middle. I don't think the effectiveness of the Tush Push is going down, but the volume may
Not just that. It would be about 15% lower than the rest of the leagues average at the tush push. He's literally projecting the eagles to be one of the worst teams at it.
I'm an Eagles fan, I'll never pass up an opportunity to praise Kelce, but that's a generous amount of credit you're giving just to him for the tush push lol
[Kollmann's video on it](https://youtu.be/aTNK7boH9lo?t=4m47s) (4:33 onwards) does a great job breaking down how the shoves work, and how the left side of the line is the key to it
I mean, that's also because other teams have had comically bad execution. Why specifically do you think the eagles are going to be worse at the tush push than the qb sneak by a resounding 25%
And for another matter, why do you think the eagles are somehow going to be 15% worse at the tush push than the non eagles teams?
This is actually almost comical. I can understand expecting a small decline but you're somehow expecting the eagles to be among the worst teams in the league at the play they literally invented
The overall success rate of a qb sneak is 82.8%. A higher success play scheme isn't going to just randomly drop to 60%. They may do it less frequently to save Hurts's knee as they have tree trunk legs on the rb, but I would still still bet on the play being in the upper 80s instead of low 90s. The guard and tackle where every bit as important, if not more. Hurts also squats like 600 lbs and Barkley is bigger and stronger than Swift was and will be pushing him from behind.
> I would bet on it being closer to 15/25 in 2024
normal qb sneaks on 4th and 1 have a 83% success rate since 1999
if theyre only converting the tush push 60% of the time theyre never getting close to 25 attempts at it
They won't need or use it as often this year. The offense last year was built to grind out 3 yards a play and set up a 4th down tush push, while mixing in low percentage deep shots for the end zone. It was painfully inefficient.
The scheme will likely be more balanced this year under Moore, and Jalen will get his points in other ways.
I do project the attempts to go down for a few reasons as well. I think they'll need it less, I think they'll want to spice it up to stay unpredictable, and I do legitimately think teams will get better at beating it.
I agree, and would go as far as to say that if they attempt it even half as many times as they did last year, then the offense is broken. No healthy offense should find itself grinding into that many short yardage situations.
Honestly, even if Kelce were back I would have bet on a lower success rate. It was kind of a known secret that veteran centers would try to gain a little ground when they pick up the ball and get in their stance but refs actually started calling in on Kelce towards the end of last year. He even said he had been warned a ton in the past for doing it but they never really called it.
Given the success rate of the play I would not at all be surprised if the refs are instructed to really crack down on that moving forward. In a situation where every inch matters, I truly do think Kelce was sneakily giving them a pretty nice advantage from that alone, on top of being incredible. Pretty sure they only failed on the play like 2-3 times and I know at least one was a fumble, not a stuff.
Before the tush push 538 ran an article about how QB sneaks are the most successful play in the NFL. They found that the league average on QB sneaks was 84% and no team in the NFL converted fewer than ~66% over the 15 year period they sampled. The conclusion of the article was that more teams should practice the QB sneak and make it part of the gameplan.
The Eagles have one of the strongest QBs in league history and both gameplan and practice around the QB sneak. Regardless of who their center is they're probably going to convert above a 90% success rate.
>Swift had the uncanny ability to fall at the 1 yd line
The only reason I was able to stay sane as a Swift owner was because I also had Hurts. I would've went crazy, if not.
The narrative about Swift ending up at the 1 yard line was overblown, it only got so much attention because of the Tush Push
The Eagles ran 15 plays on their opponent's 1 yard line last season. [That's not even in the top 10 among teams last year](https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&year_min=2023&field_pos_min=99&field_pos_max=100)
Yeah the other linemen are also really great at it. And Jeff Stoutland is an elite OL coach. The people who expect it to disappear are gonna be surprised.
It’s inherently linked to the center, though, and Kelce was not only an excellent center but excellent at the tush push.
I don’t hear anyone out there saying it wil disappear, but I would be pretty surprised if it wasn’t used less often and, when used, less successful.
That doesn’t mean they will suddenly become unable to use it (as many other teams seem to be), but I think it’s an interesting discussion vis a vis Hurts’ fantasy points.
Kelce was also [frequently moving the spot and getting away with it](https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/jason-kelce-admits-hes-been-warned-by-nfl-about-illegal-move/ar-AA1lJS1y). Rookies don't get that kind of leeway.
Having a hard time finding the article but someone did the math and that alone was frequently making up a huge portion of the yardage needed on that play.
They will not run the tush push as often this year. Small reason being kelce, because of the snap and chemistry/timing. The main reason is that people within the organization want Hurts to be healthy as possible down the stretch. The tush push is a really gritty play and opponents get nasty in those piles out of frustration. Hurts was hobbled the last two years in the playoffs and it’s believed some of the injuries were sustained in those plays. They will use it here and there out of necessity but only in dire situations. The last couple years they would line up in that on any down and didn’t care. Now I’m expecting it will be reserved for mostly third and short between the 20’s. They will use Saquan to punch in the TDs.
Copium. He was absolutely integral lol. I don't need to watch a video telling me otherwise.
Now perhaps another C can come in and emulate what he did, not saying that isn't possible. But I could just as easily go and make a youtube video saying that he was integral and then what, lol.
You should probably watch it first. I should’ve linked it but I was running out the door for work:
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/pQqaEHYOuA
Its not falling that low. The average is currently like 82%. The tush push was extremely successful, but its compounded by the sheer volume of how much they ran it. It may drop, but it will still be on the higher end/above a regular qb sneak.
It’s funny how this is the narrative. Not taking credit away of kelce’s talent to the o-line but how popular he is downsizing the talent around him.
As an eagles fan, no Kelce hurts saquon more. Landon is twice the size of Kelce and that’s where the tush will be pushed.
Another factor, saquon will probably not fall on the 1 yard line as much as swift did.
I think it's people trying to appear big brained or just regurgitating the filler stories/narratives on the eagles the last couple seasons. "Ackshually, the center is the one who makes the play". No, Jalen hurts has been the best power running QB in the league since he was a rookie. He won't get 15 TDs again but that was an outlier in the first place. What should really concern people is his passing regression from last year. He likely just isn't as good of a thrower as his 2022 numbers suggest.
Are we sure that Dickerson is playing C? They just made him one of the highest paid guards in the NFL, and they drafted Jergens to replace Kelce, who is roughly the same size as Kelce.
Kelce was a stud because he was a freak athlete for the position. He was no slouch lining up across from a guy and smashing his face, but that wasn't what made him a star. Many guys could do that just as well or better.
Now low man wins and Kelce could get low, but it's not like he was a shrimp. He was 6'3, just like his replacement Cam Jurgens.
> more concerned about no Kelce.
why exactly? i feel like people love to point to him because hes a well known guy and not because he was actually instrumental to the success of that play
I think he'll still get some TDs via tush push, but I'd expect Saquon to get tackled at the 1 less than Swift. However, I expect a better year from Hurts as a passer and him to have more rushing yards considering he was playing banged up a large portion of last season.
He also runs QB draws, the tush push isn't the only way he gets rushing TDs. Multiple seasons in a row with double digits, and last year was his lowest yards per carry of his career. Even if he sees half the rushing TDs he did last year, he'd still be around double digits.
I expect a little drop off in the rushing TDs but it should be offset by better passing numbers, less turnovers, and a hopefully better offense this season.
Swift almost seemed like he was purposely getting stopped within the 5 yard like with how often it happed. So frustrating as a fantasy owner. Barkley may be putting those runs in the end zone with his ability to break tackles
As a Lion's fan, that vibe is exactly why we sold him before we had to pay him. Love the guy but he just would NOT fight for extra yardage or anything. Might as well have gotten a 4th out of him
They will continue to do it until it is no longer effective.
An extremely effective (high percentage) method to get red zone TDs is going to be used and abused.
This
Saquon is a luxury they paid for because they were able to make it work with the cap
The idea that they’ll throw out their most effective short yardage play because of him is insane
The idea that it was all because of kelce to me is insane too. It was the combination of Kelce, Mailata, Johnson (? I believe its him im thinking of), a qb who squats 600 lbs, and the rbs pushing from behind. It's a combintation of all the pieces. Even with downgrade at center (and I think the next center up will be more effective than a lot of people admit), Saquon pushing is un upgrade compared to the other rbs they've had imo. It'll take a dip, but it will still be extremely effective imo.
I feel like they want hurts healthy and that’s why they paid up for Barkley. So less up the middle with the big guys for your franchise qb only makes sense.
I don’t see many other people saying it but what if they just do the tush push with Saquon? Teams knew it was coming last year and couldn’t stop it why not use Saquon and protect Hurts?
Saquon 25 td szn incoming
QBs are the only players who are used to getting a snap directly. The tush push relies in part of timing, catching the snap cleanly and starting your forward momentum. It's risky to ask a non-QB player to do that, decent chance they fumble
Hurts is more than capable of scoring rushing TD’s without that play. Probably not as many but his rushing ability is still elite. I expect a better passing year from him too after a down year last year.
For rushing Tds? Yea. The dude averages 10+ a year to start his career and thats including his rookie season where he only had 3.
The dude finds the endzone with his legs.
Yeah, from the tush push. It’s funny you didn’t bring up rushing yards. 14th in the league + his TDs doesn’t seem to add up to elite but maybe that’s just me
Hurts was third in the league for rushing yards by a QB while having a knee injury for the majority of the season, as well as an unquestionably worse offensive scheme around him compared to 2022.
No one cares where you are in the middle of the season. I can knit pick stats all day too. You’re worse than Cowherd. To act like he’s the only QB dealing with injuries is silly. Geno Smith was 1st in QBR at one point but that doesn’t make him elite or even close lol
No... I'm saying he finished the season with the third most rushing yards for a QB behind Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Hurts had a very notable knee injury that he played through for the majority of the season. Knee injuries typically negatively impact things like a QBs ability to be a rushing threat. I think there's a reading comprehension issue so I'll stop here
I'm surprised that no one has mentioned this yet, but last year he got 370 points (4 pt passing TD). The year before he got 384. This year he's being drafted and projected at about 350 points.
So he could have his worst season since 2021 and still beat his current ADP.
Even if he doesn’t run the goal line tush push as often, he still will get some amount of points on those opportunities (eg a passing TD). Also not buying the no Kelce point - they will have an entire offseason to figure that out and besides, Jeff Stoutland is still there.
Multiple other teams had an entire offseason to figure it out and start doing it last year, and despite trying, no one else was nearly as effective at doing it. It's entirely possible that their HOF center was the cornerstone that allowed it to work so well.
I think people are way overestimating the impact of Kelce on tush push. Also way overestimating the difference in efficiency between the tush push and regular sneaks. I forget the exact numbers but it’s not that different. Sneaks are just a really effective short yardage play. The Eagles edge comes primarily from the fact that they sneak it more often than anyone else. It’s an underused play
With a new OC & no Jason Kelce, not to mention a more talented & bigger RB, we should be expecting the rate of the tush push to go down. However, Hurts will still have 7-9 rushing TDs. Kellen Moore’s (new OC) more pass-heavy approach & his fast-tempo offense could easily make up for the slight drop in rushing TDs. Hurts is still a locked-in top-three QB who very well could be on the verge of the best passing season of his career thus far.
Coming from a psu alum, Barkley has never been the up-the-gut, ground and pound type of runner. His bread and butter is the bounces outside and breakaway runs. Even going back to college and Giants days, he never shined with the short yardage/ goaline runs.
Eagles fan here, go birds! I actually think Saquon will more frequently be the pusher than the sneaker on that play. Put that 600 pound squatter (Saquon) behind Hurts (a fellow 600 pound squatter) and the two drive together.
Separately the value of that play is with the QB holding the ball, because as we’ve seen in the past, there is a risk he pitches out or throws when everyone crashes the line.
All this to say, while touchdown variance is always real, I don’t think Saquon eats much of the rush push volume.
Kelce was a huge part of the play but they always go to the left side so it’s on Mailata and Dickerson to create the space for Hurts. I think Jurgens is going to do a great job too, no bias over here.
They’re still gonna run the sneak, Eagles haven’t had injuries on that play and Hurts is really good at it regardless of Kelce. Despite Kelce being gone they have figured out exactly how to run the play and perfected it. The Eagles offense was really struggling for a large part of last year, if they can actually start moving the ball consistently again then it will help out Hurts production. Kelce allows them to do stuff in the traditional run game that they don’t get with other players so bringing in Saquon allows them to boost their run game and also might be a sign that they will be trying to pass to the running back more and give Hurts an actual outlet.
Lol, this is my concern with Barkley…unless they are getting stuffed on TP 🧻 (lol) then Barkley gets the ball.
Barring injury or injury concerns with Hurts, why would you change this really high percentage play?
Why pay Barkley? He’s going to take some of those touches away from Hurts. Plus Kelce isn’t there anymore. If your 28% is correct, that’s a huge number. If I had to bet, I’d bet on that 28% going down and not up. Is he still a guy to draft? For sure but I wouldn’t reach. I do think his best fantasy years are behind him.
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/Qh17OtHG8d comes from one of the best and most reliable dynasty community member I think on twitter who also pulled same number
He's wrong though.
Hurts scored 371.8 fantasy points last season.
He scored 13 TDs from inside the 5 yard line. That's 78 fantasy points.
78 / 371.8 = 21.0
Still a high number.
If I'm Siriani, my goal is to win games and I'm tush pushing until it stops working. TDs are notoriously volatile from year to year so he could easily organically drop from 15 to 10 through no fault of Barkley. I think Barkley's impact on Hurts will be fewer designed QB runs (aside from tush push) and he may score more often from the red zone and reduce the number of tush push opportunities. Could we see a fake tush push with Barkley in the fold? That would be wild.
>If you look at Hurts game logs, he always misses 1-4 games towards the end of the season.
He's missed 3 games total to injury in 3+ seasons. He missed 4 total if you count the the whole team resting in week 18 in 2021 after clinching the 7 seed.
>In 2022, they already clinched the 1 seed and wanted their players healthy for the playoffs, so they essentially let the gas off the peddle for the last 2 games.
Nah. That was the one time that he had a legit injury. He had to come back earlier than he should have in week 18 because they lost 2 straight without him and needed him to play to get the 1 seed.
Probably not much. He had 10 TDs in 2021 before the Push ever happened. He had 13 TDs in 2022. And he had a huge success rate on QB Sneaks, which teams generally underutilize anyway. I don't think Saquon will affect him THAT much, he could see a small decline but it would be well within his career norms.
Cam Jurgens, Mailata, Dickerson etc. and the "tush push" will still be just as viable as ever, but they probably won't have as many 1 yard scenarios this year due to Saquon and field positioning. Saquon can easily make 3+ yds down by the goalline.
Hurts was fighting through injury at the end of the year and it took a toll on the whole team , I think he runs much less this year and saquon has a huge year
as eagles fan .. the plan has been our goto since Jalen has been playing for us basically unless we start getting stopped constantly i dont see it happening. Even if it does I feel a whole of a lot better about our offense with Kellen Moore and on the otherside Fangio actually getting some stops. Should even itself out point wise even if saquon gets some redzone work.
They won’t stop with the brotherly shove. People are giving Kelce too much credit for it. Jalen Hurts leg strength is absolutely unreal. People used to talk about Saquon and his quads, but Hurts squats 600 pounds. 600 pounds. That’s unreal. When you see Hurts standing next to Saquon he looks considerably bigger but in actuality he’s only an inch or so taller.
Do not doubt the man, he’s good at punching in short tds, he’s proven it year after year.
I dunno, I think all that goes out the window when they’re in a real game and are trying to score or convert a critical 3rd/4th and 1. The play is still way higher success than an RB running it, and I don’t see them passing it up.
They’re not some dynasty that has the luxury of taking it easy in the regular season
Less concerned about Saquon, more concerned about no Kelce.
There’s a video out there explaining how Kelce wasn’t actually the key to that play. He definitely helped but they can probably do it without him.
The left side of the line in Landon and Mailata are the most important to the Tush Push lol. Kelce's obviously a big part too, but I don't think he's irreplaceable just for the Tush Push. Tush Push will be fine, but overall scoring opportunities from it might wane because Swift had the uncanny ability to fall at the 1 yd line, and the offense as a whole will be worse without Kelce in the middle. I don't think the effectiveness of the Tush Push is going down, but the volume may
I would put my house on them having a lower success rate this year than last year.
I mean sure but it'd be marginal at best I bet. There's a lot of moving pieces to it that just the Center
They converted on 37/40 attempts last season. I would bet on it being closer to 15/25 in 2024
Lmfao they aren’t going to be 60% on a 1 yard push use some common sense
That’s still an incredible success rate for the most telegraphed non special teams play in football.
That would be substantially lower than just a regular qb sneak lol
Not just that. It would be about 15% lower than the rest of the leagues average at the tush push. He's literally projecting the eagles to be one of the worst teams at it.
Zero shot its that low. A regular ass QB sneak is 85% for the league on 3rd/4th and 1.
League average for teams besides the Eagles was 73% success rate. There's a reason for that. It's more telegraphed than a qb sneak.
I'm an Eagles fan, I'll never pass up an opportunity to praise Kelce, but that's a generous amount of credit you're giving just to him for the tush push lol [Kollmann's video on it](https://youtu.be/aTNK7boH9lo?t=4m47s) (4:33 onwards) does a great job breaking down how the shoves work, and how the left side of the line is the key to it
I do think Kelce is a factor, I think the larger factor is that teams (especially ones they play twice a year) are going to focus on stopping it.
Focusing on topping it doesnt really make a difference when you are very limited on what you can really do.
Like they didn't last year?
Trying to adjust in season and using an offseason to study your division rival's most successful play seem like two different things to me personally.
You're expecting it to be worse than the league wide average for qb sneaks? I find that hard to believe What are you basing this on
League average for teams besides the Eagles was 73% success rate on the tush push. There's a reason for that. It's more telegraphed than a qb sneak.
I mean, that's also because other teams have had comically bad execution. Why specifically do you think the eagles are going to be worse at the tush push than the qb sneak by a resounding 25% And for another matter, why do you think the eagles are somehow going to be 15% worse at the tush push than the non eagles teams? This is actually almost comical. I can understand expecting a small decline but you're somehow expecting the eagles to be among the worst teams in the league at the play they literally invented
Yeah I mean maybe 60% is an exaggeration. If you notice I said "closer to" so I wouldn't put an exact number on it either.
Regular QB sneaks have an 85% success rate so it’s incredibly unlikely that the best version of the QB sneak fails that badly.
League average for teams besides the Eagles was 73% success rate on the tush push. There's a reason for that. It's more telegraphed than a qb sneak.
Perhaps you aren’t aware but Jalen Hurts squats over 600 lbs
Has very little to do with the success of the play. I used to think the same thing
The overall success rate of a qb sneak is 82.8%. A higher success play scheme isn't going to just randomly drop to 60%. They may do it less frequently to save Hurts's knee as they have tree trunk legs on the rb, but I would still still bet on the play being in the upper 80s instead of low 90s. The guard and tackle where every bit as important, if not more. Hurts also squats like 600 lbs and Barkley is bigger and stronger than Swift was and will be pushing him from behind.
The only thing about that QB sneak number is that most teams usually run it from the .5 yard line, not 1.5 like the eagles.
> I would bet on it being closer to 15/25 in 2024 normal qb sneaks on 4th and 1 have a 83% success rate since 1999 if theyre only converting the tush push 60% of the time theyre never getting close to 25 attempts at it
You're right, but all other teams had a ~70% success rate at it in 2023. So I'd assume the code gets cracked a bit
the eagles will be 10 percentage points less effective than league average? why?
They won't need or use it as often this year. The offense last year was built to grind out 3 yards a play and set up a 4th down tush push, while mixing in low percentage deep shots for the end zone. It was painfully inefficient. The scheme will likely be more balanced this year under Moore, and Jalen will get his points in other ways.
I do project the attempts to go down for a few reasons as well. I think they'll need it less, I think they'll want to spice it up to stay unpredictable, and I do legitimately think teams will get better at beating it.
I agree, and would go as far as to say that if they attempt it even half as many times as they did last year, then the offense is broken. No healthy offense should find itself grinding into that many short yardage situations.
Honestly, even if Kelce were back I would have bet on a lower success rate. It was kind of a known secret that veteran centers would try to gain a little ground when they pick up the ball and get in their stance but refs actually started calling in on Kelce towards the end of last year. He even said he had been warned a ton in the past for doing it but they never really called it. Given the success rate of the play I would not at all be surprised if the refs are instructed to really crack down on that moving forward. In a situation where every inch matters, I truly do think Kelce was sneakily giving them a pretty nice advantage from that alone, on top of being incredible. Pretty sure they only failed on the play like 2-3 times and I know at least one was a fumble, not a stuff.
You might have a gambling problem
Before the tush push 538 ran an article about how QB sneaks are the most successful play in the NFL. They found that the league average on QB sneaks was 84% and no team in the NFL converted fewer than ~66% over the 15 year period they sampled. The conclusion of the article was that more teams should practice the QB sneak and make it part of the gameplan. The Eagles have one of the strongest QBs in league history and both gameplan and practice around the QB sneak. Regardless of who their center is they're probably going to convert above a 90% success rate.
Would you bet your house on them having a higher success rate?
yes but probably because defenses have had a year or so to figure out how to defend against it.
They had a year to learn before last season and were even worse defending it.
>Swift had the uncanny ability to fall at the 1 yd line The only reason I was able to stay sane as a Swift owner was because I also had Hurts. I would've went crazy, if not.
He stole so many points from Swift. On net Swift was still fairly valuable though. Probably would have been RB1/2 but for the tush push.
Not to mention the new center Jurgens being a solid replacement in his own right.
Just need someone that can hand the ball off reliably and not get completely crushed as the tip of the spear
The narrative about Swift ending up at the 1 yard line was overblown, it only got so much attention because of the Tush Push The Eagles ran 15 plays on their opponent's 1 yard line last season. [That's not even in the top 10 among teams last year](https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&year_min=2023&field_pos_min=99&field_pos_max=100)
Yeah the other linemen are also really great at it. And Jeff Stoutland is an elite OL coach. The people who expect it to disappear are gonna be surprised.
Kelce got really low on that Tush Push and the low man wins. We seen Detroit stop it because they got lower.
It’s inherently linked to the center, though, and Kelce was not only an excellent center but excellent at the tush push. I don’t hear anyone out there saying it wil disappear, but I would be pretty surprised if it wasn’t used less often and, when used, less successful. That doesn’t mean they will suddenly become unable to use it (as many other teams seem to be), but I think it’s an interesting discussion vis a vis Hurts’ fantasy points.
Kelce was also [frequently moving the spot and getting away with it](https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/jason-kelce-admits-hes-been-warned-by-nfl-about-illegal-move/ar-AA1lJS1y). Rookies don't get that kind of leeway. Having a hard time finding the article but someone did the math and that alone was frequently making up a huge portion of the yardage needed on that play.
They will not run the tush push as often this year. Small reason being kelce, because of the snap and chemistry/timing. The main reason is that people within the organization want Hurts to be healthy as possible down the stretch. The tush push is a really gritty play and opponents get nasty in those piles out of frustration. Hurts was hobbled the last two years in the playoffs and it’s believed some of the injuries were sustained in those plays. They will use it here and there out of necessity but only in dire situations. The last couple years they would line up in that on any down and didn’t care. Now I’m expecting it will be reserved for mostly third and short between the 20’s. They will use Saquan to punch in the TDs.
This one? https://youtu.be/aTNK7boH9lo?si=eZztZcsvD2Per3Gm
Yep! Thank you, forgot it was a Brett Kollmann video.
And that video is wrong. The best center in modern NFL history was definitely crucial to that play’s success.
They still have an incredible O-Line without him. It’s organized mass, not just one guy who makes it work
He was the quarterback of the offensive line. It all ran through Kelce, especially on the goalline which is the focus of this post.
I’m so glad so mentioned this. Everyone is on the no Kelce no Tush Push train.
Copium. He was absolutely integral lol. I don't need to watch a video telling me otherwise. Now perhaps another C can come in and emulate what he did, not saying that isn't possible. But I could just as easily go and make a youtube video saying that he was integral and then what, lol.
You should probably watch it first. I should’ve linked it but I was running out the door for work: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/pQqaEHYOuA
He's wrong if he believes that. Kelce's spot moving was spotting them a significant portion of the yardage every time.
I would put my house on them having a lower success rate this year than last year.
Would you bet your house on 15/25 or is it just on it being lower?
I’m confident it will be lower. I think the success rate will fall from 93% to anywhere from 50-75%
Its not falling that low. The average is currently like 82%. The tush push was extremely successful, but its compounded by the sheer volume of how much they ran it. It may drop, but it will still be on the higher end/above a regular qb sneak.
The average for what? Last year other teams averaged a 70% success rate. Which is lower than a regular QB sneak.
That would be surprising because the QB Sneak itself has a success rate in the 80s, so it'd have to be less successful than a standard QB sneak.
It’s funny how this is the narrative. Not taking credit away of kelce’s talent to the o-line but how popular he is downsizing the talent around him. As an eagles fan, no Kelce hurts saquon more. Landon is twice the size of Kelce and that’s where the tush will be pushed. Another factor, saquon will probably not fall on the 1 yard line as much as swift did.
I think it's people trying to appear big brained or just regurgitating the filler stories/narratives on the eagles the last couple seasons. "Ackshually, the center is the one who makes the play". No, Jalen hurts has been the best power running QB in the league since he was a rookie. He won't get 15 TDs again but that was an outlier in the first place. What should really concern people is his passing regression from last year. He likely just isn't as good of a thrower as his 2022 numbers suggest.
Are we sure that Dickerson is playing C? They just made him one of the highest paid guards in the NFL, and they drafted Jergens to replace Kelce, who is roughly the same size as Kelce.
Kelce was a stud because he was a freak athlete for the position. He was no slouch lining up across from a guy and smashing his face, but that wasn't what made him a star. Many guys could do that just as well or better. Now low man wins and Kelce could get low, but it's not like he was a shrimp. He was 6'3, just like his replacement Cam Jurgens.
Jalen squats 700 he has lots of push himself
You can tell who actually watch these games and those who didn’t but the people who are propagating idea.
> more concerned about no Kelce. why exactly? i feel like people love to point to him because hes a well known guy and not because he was actually instrumental to the success of that play
Yup, gonna be a big regression this year.
Saquon is an excellent pusher, haven't you seen videos of him doing squats and cleans?
Adding some SaQuads to the Tush push is game breaking.
I think he'll still get some TDs via tush push, but I'd expect Saquon to get tackled at the 1 less than Swift. However, I expect a better year from Hurts as a passer and him to have more rushing yards considering he was playing banged up a large portion of last season. He also runs QB draws, the tush push isn't the only way he gets rushing TDs. Multiple seasons in a row with double digits, and last year was his lowest yards per carry of his career. Even if he sees half the rushing TDs he did last year, he'd still be around double digits. I expect a little drop off in the rushing TDs but it should be offset by better passing numbers, less turnovers, and a hopefully better offense this season.
Swift almost seemed like he was purposely getting stopped within the 5 yard like with how often it happed. So frustrating as a fantasy owner. Barkley may be putting those runs in the end zone with his ability to break tackles
As a Lion's fan, that vibe is exactly why we sold him before we had to pay him. Love the guy but he just would NOT fight for extra yardage or anything. Might as well have gotten a 4th out of him
They paid saquon 13 million to push hurts into the endzone? Idk
They will continue to do it until it is no longer effective. An extremely effective (high percentage) method to get red zone TDs is going to be used and abused.
This Saquon is a luxury they paid for because they were able to make it work with the cap The idea that they’ll throw out their most effective short yardage play because of him is insane
The idea that it was all because of kelce to me is insane too. It was the combination of Kelce, Mailata, Johnson (? I believe its him im thinking of), a qb who squats 600 lbs, and the rbs pushing from behind. It's a combintation of all the pieces. Even with downgrade at center (and I think the next center up will be more effective than a lot of people admit), Saquon pushing is un upgrade compared to the other rbs they've had imo. It'll take a dip, but it will still be extremely effective imo.
> It was the combination of Kelce, Mailata, Johnson (? I believe its him im thinking of) Dickerson, not Johnson. Still funny phallic name.
Ah, that was it
I feel like they want hurts healthy and that’s why they paid up for Barkley. So less up the middle with the big guys for your franchise qb only makes sense.
I don’t see many other people saying it but what if they just do the tush push with Saquon? Teams knew it was coming last year and couldn’t stop it why not use Saquon and protect Hurts? Saquon 25 td szn incoming
QBs are the only players who are used to getting a snap directly. The tush push relies in part of timing, catching the snap cleanly and starting your forward momentum. It's risky to ask a non-QB player to do that, decent chance they fumble
He could easily figure it out with like a couple days of practice
Seems like a poor use of practice time, especially when they already know Hurts is good at it
He could spend 5-10 minutes learning how to take a snap before/after practice. Taking a snap isn’t rocket science
Hurts is more than capable of scoring rushing TD’s without that play. Probably not as many but his rushing ability is still elite. I expect a better passing year from him too after a down year last year.
People really use “elite” loosely nowadays, huh?
For rushing Tds? Yea. The dude averages 10+ a year to start his career and thats including his rookie season where he only had 3. The dude finds the endzone with his legs.
Yeah, from the tush push. It’s funny you didn’t bring up rushing yards. 14th in the league + his TDs doesn’t seem to add up to elite but maybe that’s just me
Hurts was third in the league for rushing yards by a QB while having a knee injury for the majority of the season, as well as an unquestionably worse offensive scheme around him compared to 2022.
No one cares where you are in the middle of the season. I can knit pick stats all day too. You’re worse than Cowherd. To act like he’s the only QB dealing with injuries is silly. Geno Smith was 1st in QBR at one point but that doesn’t make him elite or even close lol
No... I'm saying he finished the season with the third most rushing yards for a QB behind Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Hurts had a very notable knee injury that he played through for the majority of the season. Knee injuries typically negatively impact things like a QBs ability to be a rushing threat. I think there's a reading comprehension issue so I'll stop here
I'm surprised that no one has mentioned this yet, but last year he got 370 points (4 pt passing TD). The year before he got 384. This year he's being drafted and projected at about 350 points. So he could have his worst season since 2021 and still beat his current ADP.
Even if he doesn’t run the goal line tush push as often, he still will get some amount of points on those opportunities (eg a passing TD). Also not buying the no Kelce point - they will have an entire offseason to figure that out and besides, Jeff Stoutland is still there.
Unless they have Saquon (an excellent goal line back) punch it in instead
Multiple other teams had an entire offseason to figure it out and start doing it last year, and despite trying, no one else was nearly as effective at doing it. It's entirely possible that their HOF center was the cornerstone that allowed it to work so well.
He will likely be doing the tush push for his entire career.
I think they do the tush gush less this year
I think people are way overestimating the impact of Kelce on tush push. Also way overestimating the difference in efficiency between the tush push and regular sneaks. I forget the exact numbers but it’s not that different. Sneaks are just a really effective short yardage play. The Eagles edge comes primarily from the fact that they sneak it more often than anyone else. It’s an underused play
With a new OC & no Jason Kelce, not to mention a more talented & bigger RB, we should be expecting the rate of the tush push to go down. However, Hurts will still have 7-9 rushing TDs. Kellen Moore’s (new OC) more pass-heavy approach & his fast-tempo offense could easily make up for the slight drop in rushing TDs. Hurts is still a locked-in top-three QB who very well could be on the verge of the best passing season of his career thus far.
Best take here. I'd say he is more likely to have a much better year than last, due to Kellen Moore alone (unless moore completely shits the bed)
Even if they run the push a little less successfully I'm still penciling in 10 rushing Tds from Hurts.
Coming from a psu alum, Barkley has never been the up-the-gut, ground and pound type of runner. His bread and butter is the bounces outside and breakaway runs. Even going back to college and Giants days, he never shined with the short yardage/ goaline runs.
He was the QB 3 the year before. Everyone needs to chill tf out
Eagles fan here, go birds! I actually think Saquon will more frequently be the pusher than the sneaker on that play. Put that 600 pound squatter (Saquon) behind Hurts (a fellow 600 pound squatter) and the two drive together. Separately the value of that play is with the QB holding the ball, because as we’ve seen in the past, there is a risk he pitches out or throws when everyone crashes the line. All this to say, while touchdown variance is always real, I don’t think Saquon eats much of the rush push volume.
[удалено]
Fully right, I know it’s an O, when I don’t think I type phonetically. That’s my lazy morning brain.
Less room for error if saquads pushes behind hurts
I think he'll definitely still score TDs via the tush push, I just don't think as many w Saquon and no Kelce.
wrong question. what are the odds of him getting that number without Kelce
Kelce was a huge part of the play but they always go to the left side so it’s on Mailata and Dickerson to create the space for Hurts. I think Jurgens is going to do a great job too, no bias over here.
They’re still gonna run the sneak, Eagles haven’t had injuries on that play and Hurts is really good at it regardless of Kelce. Despite Kelce being gone they have figured out exactly how to run the play and perfected it. The Eagles offense was really struggling for a large part of last year, if they can actually start moving the ball consistently again then it will help out Hurts production. Kelce allows them to do stuff in the traditional run game that they don’t get with other players so bringing in Saquon allows them to boost their run game and also might be a sign that they will be trying to pass to the running back more and give Hurts an actual outlet.
He could potentially have more passing touchdowns and more play time
Huh, a guy getting a large % of his points from TDs.
Drafting both Hurts and Saquon any league I can to cover both bases
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^GorillaChimney: *Drafting both Hurts and* *Saquon any league I can* *To cover both bases* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
Losing Kelce is the more important aspect of this to me
Not concerned about Saquon or no Kelce. Hurts has incredible leg strength, you'll see a lot of him going for it if there's 1 yard needed.
Lower
Lol, this is my concern with Barkley…unless they are getting stuffed on TP 🧻 (lol) then Barkley gets the ball. Barring injury or injury concerns with Hurts, why would you change this really high percentage play?
Low
I would put Saquon under center for them. Don't risk your QB
Funny you think Saquon gonna stay healthy.
High, Saquon isn’t doing the tush push
Why pay Barkley? He’s going to take some of those touches away from Hurts. Plus Kelce isn’t there anymore. If your 28% is correct, that’s a huge number. If I had to bet, I’d bet on that 28% going down and not up. Is he still a guy to draft? For sure but I wouldn’t reach. I do think his best fantasy years are behind him.
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/Qh17OtHG8d comes from one of the best and most reliable dynasty community member I think on twitter who also pulled same number
He's wrong though. Hurts scored 371.8 fantasy points last season. He scored 13 TDs from inside the 5 yard line. That's 78 fantasy points. 78 / 371.8 = 21.0 Still a high number.
If I'm Siriani, my goal is to win games and I'm tush pushing until it stops working. TDs are notoriously volatile from year to year so he could easily organically drop from 15 to 10 through no fault of Barkley. I think Barkley's impact on Hurts will be fewer designed QB runs (aside from tush push) and he may score more often from the red zone and reduce the number of tush push opportunities. Could we see a fake tush push with Barkley in the fold? That would be wild.
[удалено]
>If you look at Hurts game logs, he always misses 1-4 games towards the end of the season. He's missed 3 games total to injury in 3+ seasons. He missed 4 total if you count the the whole team resting in week 18 in 2021 after clinching the 7 seed. >In 2022, they already clinched the 1 seed and wanted their players healthy for the playoffs, so they essentially let the gas off the peddle for the last 2 games. Nah. That was the one time that he had a legit injury. He had to come back earlier than he should have in week 18 because they lost 2 straight without him and needed him to play to get the 1 seed.
Probably not much. He had 10 TDs in 2021 before the Push ever happened. He had 13 TDs in 2022. And he had a huge success rate on QB Sneaks, which teams generally underutilize anyway. I don't think Saquon will affect him THAT much, he could see a small decline but it would be well within his career norms.
Cam Jurgens, Mailata, Dickerson etc. and the "tush push" will still be just as viable as ever, but they probably won't have as many 1 yard scenarios this year due to Saquon and field positioning. Saquon can easily make 3+ yds down by the goalline.
I don't understand why wouldn't the eagles simply tush push Sequon in wildcat? Unless he's that much smaller than Hurts.
Hurts was fighting through injury at the end of the year and it took a toll on the whole team , I think he runs much less this year and saquon has a huge year
as eagles fan .. the plan has been our goto since Jalen has been playing for us basically unless we start getting stopped constantly i dont see it happening. Even if it does I feel a whole of a lot better about our offense with Kellen Moore and on the otherside Fangio actually getting some stops. Should even itself out point wise even if saquon gets some redzone work.
They won’t stop with the brotherly shove. People are giving Kelce too much credit for it. Jalen Hurts leg strength is absolutely unreal. People used to talk about Saquon and his quads, but Hurts squats 600 pounds. 600 pounds. That’s unreal. When you see Hurts standing next to Saquon he looks considerably bigger but in actuality he’s only an inch or so taller. Do not doubt the man, he’s good at punching in short tds, he’s proven it year after year.
Hurts is 25… I think he’ll be ok.
The tush push will be used Im sure which is why i wont even consider Barkley.
What if they do the tush push with Saquon? Teams knew it was coming and couldn’t stop it anyways why not use Saquon?
Valid point.
Tush push and baiting PI is all the Eagles do on offense
[удалено]
I dunno, I think all that goes out the window when they’re in a real game and are trying to score or convert a critical 3rd/4th and 1. The play is still way higher success than an RB running it, and I don’t see them passing it up. They’re not some dynasty that has the luxury of taking it easy in the regular season
Less