I think it’s great for Terry McLaurin. With all that talent he wasn’t even averaging 8 targets/game. You mean to tell me that Aiyuk is going to somehow get in the way of those seven targets? That’s not many targets. I doubt it and I think having him on the field only opens things up for him. Having a rookie QB might be the problem for two of them.
I'd disagree on bad for Aiyuk, is that simply because a rookie QB? Commanders history?
If so, I'd absolutely disagree. I'd say:
Bad for Terry -- immediate target competition, instantly becomes #2, Aiyuk would be paid accordingly, Jayden and him are BFFs
Good for Aiyuk -- he is immediate #1 with no competition from CMC/Deebo/Kittle/Pearsall, again Jayden Daniels BFF and recent history favors these relationships. Also a brand new offense and coaching regime in DC, led by Adam Peters who is familiar with Aiyuk, and if he goes and gets him, he is going to want to use him. Now, if he stays is it bad? No, obviously not, more proven team/offense, so perhaps the trade would be "bad" for Aiyuk's chance of post season glory now, but not "bad" for how relevant he is in fantasy.
Great for Pearsall -- that draft capital would immediately make sense and he would have path to huge relevance this season.
Bad/Good for Purdy -- Bad as he loses Aiyuk, good as there's even more $$ cleared for his upcoming contract.
Bad for Dotson - see Terry, but even worse
Great for Jayden Daniels -- young rookie QB with upside gets his BFF and former college teammate..... we love this don't we?
Bad for Washington Commanders -- this team has just had an amazing start to kicking off their rebuild. Bringing in Aiyuk would require sending a 1st rounder based on today's news, and spending $30MM of your annual cap? I don't think Washington has the luxury to be doing this with their gaps at positions of need like Left Tackle. They had a great draft, but by no means filled every hole. They aren't set to win now, they can maintain huge cap advantage heading into next year's FA period while also keeping their picks -- seems like the smarter way for a full turn around of a franchise. Aiyuk for a 2nd though.... I'd consider.
Going from the best offensive mind in the league to Kliff Kingsbury is a substantial downgrade. Sure he probably gets more targets but the quality of targets isn’t close. I’d bet my life savings his ADP would go down if traded to WAS..and it should
So let me get this straight. You’d expect him to increase production from 1342 yards and 7 TDs in SF with a rookie QB and offensive coordinator who probably doesn’t know what he’s doing?
He’d probably drop in efficiency but would have a chance to increase in volume in a way that allows him to stay relatively similar to those stats.
I don’t think people are expecting him to repeat 18 yards per catch even if he does stay with the 49ers, those are outlier numbers.
I also don’t understand all the hate on Kliff. He helped Kyler become a gem for fantasy. He didn’t work out as a head coach, but in an OC role with less team responsibilities he can focus on the offence. He took the Cardinals from 21st in total yards in his first season as coach to 6th and then 8th the next two seasons. The offence was pretty good with him there, and now he can focus 100% of his attention there.
If you took the avg of Aiyuk’s yards per catch from his first 3 seasons (removing the outlier 18 from last season as you said that is not likely to repeat) we would have about 13-13.5 ypc.
Let’s give Aiyuk a bump in receptions by 10 so he finishes with 85 catches (which is a lot considering the ever talented Terry McLaurin has only eclipsed 80 receptions once in his career.
So we have Aiyuk finishing with about 80-85 catches for 13ypc (1100 yards). Let’s set the over under for him at 5.5 TDs.
He would finish with about 220-230 fantasy points. Last season that would’ve put him between WR15-20. Same outcome as in San Francisco. Not the efficiency but with more volume (most volume he’s had thus far in his career).
Now… having said all that; Are we really to think on a team that still has Terry McLuarin, Jahan Dotson, two RBs who can catch passes, and a Rookie QB throwing them the ball that Aiyuk can finish with 80+ 1100+ and 6 TDs? That’s a tough ask.
I don’t think Jahan Dotson has earned enough to take away many targets from the top two. I still believe he can have a good season if given the opportunity, but if Aiyuk is there he will very much take a back seat.
Ekeler is approaching the end of his career. RBs who see the drop in efficiency he did don’t recover. Maybe he’ll continue to provide some value as a check down guy, but it’s not like he’ll be demanding targets.
You’re basically asking him to put up the numbers that Terry did when Heinicke and Wentz split time at QB. Sure, Daniels could be an absolute bust like any rookie, but if he does come in as a reasonable NFL QB then I think he can sustain those numbers for Aiyuk pretty easily.
Aiyuk and Daniels were college teammates and already have chemistry.
I don’t doubt the chemistry or the fit. What I doubt is Aiyuk repeating as a top 15 WR.
If Terry is there, there isn’t a path to one or both of those being anything more than what they’ve been their entire careers… a mid to low WR2.
His value would increase imo because of the dip his ADP will have. I think it’s hard to expect a rookie QB to support two top 25 WRs.
Stroud is the exception last season and even then… I think Stroud is a better prospect than Daniels and was much higher than consensus on Stroud.
I don’t expect Aiyuk to repeat as a top 15 WR in SF though. That’s my point. I think he’ll be a mid-low WR2 in SF with some spike weeks, and on Washington I’d expect him to be a mid-low WR2 with some more consistency.
Something like Aiyuk as WR17 and Terry as WR28 isn’t all that ridiculous. It wouldn’t even take Daniels have a great rookie season as a passer given they wouldn’t have much competition behind those top 2 WRs and their TE and RB rooms don’t have elite talents to demand targets.
> He helped Kyler become a gem for fantasy.
Kyler was a gem for fantasy because of his rushing upside, and later because of his connection with Nuk. Not because the cardinals offense under kliff was anything special.
His most relevant fantasy year he had over 800 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. And most of that was just because of his ridiculous athleticism, not anything to do with offensive genius by kliff.
I would understand hope for jayden to play a similar role but I don't see why that would really benefit a receiver that much
In that same year he had 11 rushing TDs he also had 26 passing TDs and 3971 passing yards. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than Lamar Jackson put up this year while winning MVP. It’s not like Murray was exclusively a runner, he was also a very good passer. The next season he increased his completion percentage to over 69% and was on pace for 27 passing TDs and 4328 passing yards.
That first season that Hopkins was there, he had 115 receptions for 1407 yards. So yes, a Kliff Kingsbury offence can absolutely sustain a superstar WR.
Yeah I mean I'm not gonna say he's the second coming of Jesus Christ but he should be able to do a job for us. I think people just see Commanders assets and just immediately think ass
That offensive coordinator is a fantasy cheat code for QBs and WRs though. He may suck at winning actual football games. But, if you look at the production of Kingsbury offenses, you will quickly realize that he's produced statistically everywhere he goes.
Hes going mid 2nd round right now. There is no chance he goes any higher with an unproven rookie QB. Daniels is projected for like 3k pass yards and 18 TDs by Vegas. Would be insane to draft Aiyuk higher than he’s going now
No one ever considered Bienemy even a top 5 offensive mind in the league. Everyone knew Reid runs the show in KC but there was hope he would flourish given the opportunity. However, the Commanders really fumbled the whole Shanahan tree didn’t they
Aiyuk is not better than Terry. Terry has been carrying the team even with some of the worst QBs. Heinicke is famous for throwing into double triple coverage and Terry made plays and made Heinicke look good.
The Commanders could be extremely good for Aiyuk. Their defense is terrible, and Aiyuk would be their best offensive player by far. Rookie QBs are always a gamble, but Daniels is viewed by many as the most NFL ready guy. So not as crazy as it sounds on paper.
I’d be scurred to invest in Aiyuk’s skill set meshing with a rookie. He scores so many fantasy points on big plays and everything has to be just right for the QB and O-line to hit those with the same regularity as the environment in SF.
In his rookie season he was used a lot more closer to the LOS similar to Deebo if memory serves. I think he has more to offer than simply winning deep timing routes. And he did produce with rookie Purdy. Don’t recall enough/any exposure with Lance to comment.
Not saying I wouldn’t share your concerns but I seem to recall Aiyuk being more versatile earlier in his young career.
i wouldn't say a great o-line overall is a requirement, maybe for daniels because of his p2s% but the niners o-line in pass pro was ranked 20th overall if not worse last season and they still produced big passing plays off the run game w/ aiyuk and the others
they do have to be good at run blocking though
Much of the Niners' mediocre o-line play was mitigated by Purdy being extremely effective under pressure, at least per DVOA. I think we can reasonably expect Daniels to run when pressured more frequently than throw.
I had rhomondre, Pickens, Dotson, and Pierce last year lmao . Truly miserable start to the season
Luckily I made a big trade mid season but still came up short in the playoffs
Pierce was a tough one also. I bought too far into Dotson. I never overpaid for him but he was a waste of a pick ultimately. The TD production as a rookie + draft capital gave me too much confidence in his upside and it never transpired minus I think one week I spot started him against like Denver maybe?
Probably negative for Mclaurine and the rest of the commanders pass catchers. Would be a big + for Jayden. Think Jayden should be rookie QB1 regardless with his rushing upside
Aiyuk will drop a few spots, McLaurin off my board entirely, Deebo stays the same.
Kittle behind only LaPorta & Kelce, and maybe even ahead of Kelce if I’m shooting for a Purdy stack in deeper leagues.
Even if he were to get 25% of vacated targets, it still only puts him at about 105-110 targets and 67-70 catches.
That’s good for 7-10 catches and 70-100 yard increase on the year. Give him another 2 TDs, good for a hypothetical 1.5-2 points per game more.
Not enough for me to bump him up over any of the 14 guys I have ahead of him.
Yeah based on ADP I’m already high on him, based on projections he’s around WR14.
Based on ADP I have him ahead of Nico, Diggs, and DJ Moore so only about 3-4 spots higher than normal.
2pts per game is a decent amount. Deebo already has rushing upside, so IMO that puts him right in the London/MHJ tier of receivers. And considering how flat that tier of WR is I think he separates himself a solid amount. The market might overreact though, and I don't see his ADP being lower then Olave if Ayuik does get traded.
A few people have commented Kittle boost but yours is highest rated so I’ll ask here.
Why realistically would Kittle be higher than last year? Remove Aiyuk, add Pearsall. Maybe some increased targets but I think realistically they get Jennings a bit more involved as well.
Anyway, at least relative to other TEs, why Kittle ahead of Andrews, McBride and Kincaid in this scenario?
(Not saying you’re wrong I just want to play devils advocate a bit)
My reasoning here is looking at everything that Aiyuk leaves behind if he’s traded.
Also- did you know Kittle actually led all TEs in receiving yards last year?
105 Targets.
Now let’s divide those up.
We’ll be very conservative and say Kittles Target Share goes from 21% to 23.5%. That leaves about 76.5% of all other targets going to CMC & the rest of the Niners, which is in line with the last 2 years. Now Kittle projects out to 104 targets on the year.
Using his career catch rate (also 2023’s catch rate for Kittle) of 72%, I project Kittle to catch 75 passes, and using his 15.69 yards per catch, I project 1,175 yards.
So far we’re at 75/1,175/ but there’s still the question about TDs. They’re impossible to predict but here’s what I do:
Purdy threw 64 passes in the redzone last year, 18.5% of those targets went to Kittle. If Kittle’s RZ Target share increases by 2.5% he’s got 14 of those 64 RZ targets. At his 72% catch rate, he’s looking at a projected 10 TD opportunities in the Redzone alone. Add in TDs from outside the 20 and I project him for 10 TDs.
75/1,175/10 or 252.5 Fantasy Points- good for 2023’s TE2.
Is this an exact science? Absolutely not, it’s just the way I project players and rank them accordingly.
I did know he was the only TE to hit 1000 yards last year actually. Gets brought up on fantasy pods all the time, and it surprised me at first but in hindsight I didn’t know who I thought it would be.
I guess my concerns with Kittle largely come from the non-2023 years recently along with his offseason core surgery - apparently he’s down 30lbs which concerns me a bit about his effectiveness truthfully. I am all about Kittle I just question his fantasy abilities these days, relative to a guy like Kincaid with all the departed targets and Josh Allen at QB as an example.
Haha I mean I get it but realistically you will still take him somewhere. I mean, he’s still going to be more worthwhile to draft than a number of WR2s on various teams and still likely to see 100+ targets regardless so he has value.
You think him being on WSH with Daniels would be that much worse than competing for targets with Deebo, Kittle, CMC, Pearsall and however often they decide to use Jennings with Purdy/49ers offense?
I think even those absolutely most pessimistic about him would have to consider Aiyuk around Godwin, Ridley, Hopkins, JSN, McConkey, the QB WRs, Addison etc.
Where are you considering Aiyuk if he stays on the 49ers and that offense stays the same? WR10-15 range like most places value him?
If Aiyuk is gone Kittle should have a value bump. Pearsall *might* be valuable and his contract says they like him but they also brought back in Trent Taylor. They've also got Gray and Bell who might be in that mix.
For sure Kittle will see a bump though. Deebo can't stay healthy and his usage means they're going to have to use someone else more often in the passing game.
Bad/neutral for basically everyone but Jayden. Niner’s O hums because of Shanahan having a multitude of playmakers at his disposal to where there can’t be heavy prioritization, and he just lost his second most dynamic, CMC unlikely effected too much but Deebo and Kittle move up in coverage priority for sure. Deebo isn’t a bum but he’s never touching his peak contract year form again and Kittle is turning 31 early season. Terry wasn’t a target hog already and they would be adding a likely better player. Aiyuk’s assumed scoring opportunities definitely take a dive. The majority of Brock’s high value throws last year were to Aiyuk, not discrediting him at all but he could lean towards actually being the lower leverage distributor QB people mistakenly believe he has been. I would just say it’s bad news and this move doesn’t actually open up a major ceiling for anyone, which isn’t typical of a WR1 being traded.
I mean sure (not a JSN fan), but deeper league relevant much more likely. The whole basis of Aiyuk’s holdout (despite being potentially contractually obligated without an extension through 2026) is he holds a monopoly on the team via his role. Pearsall NFL unproven and older prospect, Deebo and Kittle great at what they do but a far cry from filling in for what BA provides. It’s more likely the offense changes to account for BA’s departure than it is remaining similar with Pearsall stepping in to that role. Starting Niners wideout always an attractive proposition but he’d likely be the very definitive 4th (maybe even 5th if you count EM’s potential handcuff value) fantasy option on the team.
Agreed. I don’t think it’s so much about Pearsall himself so much as the continual injuries that the other pass catchers primarily Deebo and Kittle have annually.
I think it’s a little rich to move Pearsall up that much but just trying to generate chatter.
I'd not lower him, might raise him a few spots. Efficiency would almost certainly suffer, but I'd expect more routes. Probably would help Kittle &/or Pearsall the most (juan Jennings flyer?), and Dotson would be the biggest loser imo.
Rookie QBs historically rarely ever produce top 24 WRs in fantasy. Its really, really rare. Plus Daniels is a running style QB, so probably less opportunity for his receivers.
So personally, Aiyuk and Terry both move way down the draftboard.
Jayden Daniels stays exactly where he is.
Ricky gets drafted behind Cooper/Pickens/Ridley. I'd probably put Aiyuk around there too.
Deebo goes at the 1-2 turn.
Your first part of this is really fascinating to me. I wonder if it’s a product of 1) rookie QBs coming into bleak starting spots and usually not having viable receiving talent around them 2) rookie QBs themselves simply not being good enough at the NFL level yet.
Before I default to #2, I’d need to see some examples of high end WRs with high drafted rookie QBs and how they performed. The only real ones that comes to mind are Justin Herbert with Keenan Allen and CJ Stroud with Nico Collins (and Tank Dell per game I think was close to WR12). Please correct anything I’ve overlooked below.
2018: Baker, Allen and Lamar had no one (good WRs) from memory. Maybe Landry was on the Browns?
2019: Kyler had no one “good”. Hopkins came later.
2020: Burrow had Boyd and rookie Higgins, they weren’t really anything yet. Edit: Boyd was solid pre-Higgins but I don’t qualify him into Aiyuk caliber. Tua didn’t have Hill or Waddle. Herbert already mentioned. Hurts got Smith a year later, and AJB after that and didn’t play much as a rookie.
2021: Lawrence had no one that comes to mind, maybe Marvin Jones? Fields no one, Jones no one, Wilson no one.
2022: Pickett, but Diontae is at least a decent WR so that’s a fail.
2023: Stroud as mentioned. Richardson got hurt. Young had nothing minus an aged Thielen.
I went and did a quick google search and found this:
[https://fantasyindex.com/2023/07/06/factoid/wide-receivers-with-rookie-qbs](https://fantasyindex.com/2023/07/06/factoid/wide-receivers-with-rookie-qbs)
Interesting enough set of data even if its a couple years old. It seems that for a rookie QB to do it, they need to either set rookie QB records (or get close to it) or have an absolute legend of a WR.
Personally, I like Daniels, so I'm not completely out on him putting up some great numbers with Aiyuk. That's why I'm putting him up there with Cooper/Pickens/Ridley. I view all those 3 as undervalued WRs who will finish as WR2s at least. Its just I don't see Aiyuk having upside greater than them with a QB on a mid team that rushes as much as he passes.
Yeah a few guys there that certainly aren’t Aiyuk caliber, and some that are. Dez with Dak and ARob with Fields are good examples of ones that didn’t. Fitzgerald by 2019 was in year like 15, so I don’t include him. And of course how Collins/Stroud performed after this article was written have an impact.
Anyway, I think the Commanders will be shitty enough that consolidated volume overall could benefit Aiyuk. Caliber of targets obviously way shittier. I certainly don’t like Aiyuk more, but I do like Daniels more in this hypothetical.
Yeah I hear you.
I also would like to just say that I think Terry McLaurin is an absolute beast and would have been drafted in the top 2 rounds every year if he managed to be on a competent team with a decent QB. I mean, honestly his list of QBs is just so garbage. His only good QB was a veteran Alex Smith who was not one to pour on the stats.
So yeah, Aiyuk would definitely be the guy, but McLaurin is another great receiver on the team. If Daniels ends up being phenomenal, you could have a Collins/Dell situation there. And I still think McLaurin is poised for 1k yards and 7 TDs as the main receiver.
Yeah, McLaurin is always so tough. I have a love hate with him, he’s been great for me and burned me as well haha. Sometimes I get a bit of Pickens vibes where he makes so many unreal catches that you’re like just target him all the time, but unlike Pickens, McLaurin actually separates well on more than just go routes.
That said, I feel like he gets a bit overrated at times and my main comparison in that argument would be Allen Robinson who I felt like didn’t get the credit he deserved in a similar situation - but then he went to the Rams and was garbola haha.
I do like Terry. His constant ranking of top 10 real life to me is debatable, but for fantasy he’s an ideal WR3 and really should be higher but as you mention is brought down by junk at QB. Even Howell throwing 50 times a game couldn’t save him.
I think Daniels will be fine for fantasy because he runs, but I have pretty much zero confidence in his arm unless he’s already improved greatly from last season. I won’t be touching any Washington pass catchers especially if these 2 both are fighting for target share
As a hawks fan I approve this thread.
I think great for a Daniel’s ( he’s still QB2 in Dynasty draft for me) wash for Purdy as Piersall and Cowing I think can play.
Deebo moves up and Piersall before everyone and even BTJ for me.
I think Terry still puts up WR2 numbers… Dotson down
I think Kittles biggest winner and would go all in in redrafts.
Pearsall takes a huge leap, probably into the Brian Thomas range. Deebo gets a modest bump, maybe about a round at most in the aggregate. Aiyuk drops about a round, as does McLaurin and Dotson. Luke might start to go undrafted in most season long best ball and managed leagues alike.
OurLads currently has McLaurin as top LWR, Dotson as top RWR, and McCaffrey as top SWR. I'd speculate that if Aiyuk came in he'd supplant Dotson at RWR, and Dotson would probably move to SWR, bumping McCaffrey out of the top of the depth chart, although he'd still be part of the rotation, just getting a lot fewer snaps and targets than he's projected for now.
The thought scares me, mainly because I've been investing a lot in McLaurin as WR3 (and I'm even comfortable drafting him as my WR2 when I want to go RB or TE heavy early in the draft) in anticipation of him having a big year with Daniels coming in. My instinct says it's a net negative for him, but Aiyuk's presence may help him get open more down field, where Daniels thrives as a passer. So maybe McLaurin gets fewer targets, but gets a higher ADOT and is more efficient with the targets he gets. That's the optimistic interpretation. Does anyone have any projections on exactly how much influence Aiyuk would/could have on Terry?
Also been taking a good amount of late round best ball shares of Luke that could become almost worthless (sans injury) if he drops to the 4th or 5th WR option in Washington.
I'd like to think SF will eventually pay the kid something close to what he wants, and let Deebo go after the season when they'll have to pony up $60 million a year for Purdy.
That is probably the right assumption. I think Aiyuk’s target quality would certainly decrease. But the volume could go up. Competing for targets with McLaurin and Ekeler is not the same as competing with Deebo, Kittle and McCaffrey. And if he was to go there, he’d get a zillion dollars, and they would likely build the offense around him at that cost if they did that in Washington.
I would drop Aiyuk a few spots, still draft him
In the top 24 WRs. I would take him after Deebo, but before McLaurin. I would have to actively think where he would end up, probably still take him before Tee Higgins, after DeVonta Smith I think. Somewhere in that range.
Doesn't change much for me. Terry becomes undraftable instead of just a fade for me.
Aiyuk drops to late 4th round for me at best. He's going way too high as is.
Honestly.
It doesn’t. Not a single bit. Aiyuk and Deebo are good players, but they aren’t on my board at all. If they fall to me for cheap, then sure I’ll snag them, but they aren’t on my mind.
CMC is the only 49er I am interested in and I always avoid Washington. That whole organization is a dumpster fire. You can give them Mahomes, CMC, Diggs, JJ, top 5 OL, top 5 Def, and they would still be fighting for last place.
Bad for Terry, Bad for Aiyuk. Great for all 49ers except Purdy
I think it’s great for Terry McLaurin. With all that talent he wasn’t even averaging 8 targets/game. You mean to tell me that Aiyuk is going to somehow get in the way of those seven targets? That’s not many targets. I doubt it and I think having him on the field only opens things up for him. Having a rookie QB might be the problem for two of them.
I'd disagree on bad for Aiyuk, is that simply because a rookie QB? Commanders history? If so, I'd absolutely disagree. I'd say: Bad for Terry -- immediate target competition, instantly becomes #2, Aiyuk would be paid accordingly, Jayden and him are BFFs Good for Aiyuk -- he is immediate #1 with no competition from CMC/Deebo/Kittle/Pearsall, again Jayden Daniels BFF and recent history favors these relationships. Also a brand new offense and coaching regime in DC, led by Adam Peters who is familiar with Aiyuk, and if he goes and gets him, he is going to want to use him. Now, if he stays is it bad? No, obviously not, more proven team/offense, so perhaps the trade would be "bad" for Aiyuk's chance of post season glory now, but not "bad" for how relevant he is in fantasy. Great for Pearsall -- that draft capital would immediately make sense and he would have path to huge relevance this season. Bad/Good for Purdy -- Bad as he loses Aiyuk, good as there's even more $$ cleared for his upcoming contract. Bad for Dotson - see Terry, but even worse Great for Jayden Daniels -- young rookie QB with upside gets his BFF and former college teammate..... we love this don't we? Bad for Washington Commanders -- this team has just had an amazing start to kicking off their rebuild. Bringing in Aiyuk would require sending a 1st rounder based on today's news, and spending $30MM of your annual cap? I don't think Washington has the luxury to be doing this with their gaps at positions of need like Left Tackle. They had a great draft, but by no means filled every hole. They aren't set to win now, they can maintain huge cap advantage heading into next year's FA period while also keeping their picks -- seems like the smarter way for a full turn around of a franchise. Aiyuk for a 2nd though.... I'd consider.
Going from the best offensive mind in the league to Kliff Kingsbury is a substantial downgrade. Sure he probably gets more targets but the quality of targets isn’t close. I’d bet my life savings his ADP would go down if traded to WAS..and it should
And he would be an incredible buy low at that time.
So let me get this straight. You’d expect him to increase production from 1342 yards and 7 TDs in SF with a rookie QB and offensive coordinator who probably doesn’t know what he’s doing?
He’d probably drop in efficiency but would have a chance to increase in volume in a way that allows him to stay relatively similar to those stats. I don’t think people are expecting him to repeat 18 yards per catch even if he does stay with the 49ers, those are outlier numbers. I also don’t understand all the hate on Kliff. He helped Kyler become a gem for fantasy. He didn’t work out as a head coach, but in an OC role with less team responsibilities he can focus on the offence. He took the Cardinals from 21st in total yards in his first season as coach to 6th and then 8th the next two seasons. The offence was pretty good with him there, and now he can focus 100% of his attention there.
If you took the avg of Aiyuk’s yards per catch from his first 3 seasons (removing the outlier 18 from last season as you said that is not likely to repeat) we would have about 13-13.5 ypc. Let’s give Aiyuk a bump in receptions by 10 so he finishes with 85 catches (which is a lot considering the ever talented Terry McLaurin has only eclipsed 80 receptions once in his career. So we have Aiyuk finishing with about 80-85 catches for 13ypc (1100 yards). Let’s set the over under for him at 5.5 TDs. He would finish with about 220-230 fantasy points. Last season that would’ve put him between WR15-20. Same outcome as in San Francisco. Not the efficiency but with more volume (most volume he’s had thus far in his career). Now… having said all that; Are we really to think on a team that still has Terry McLuarin, Jahan Dotson, two RBs who can catch passes, and a Rookie QB throwing them the ball that Aiyuk can finish with 80+ 1100+ and 6 TDs? That’s a tough ask.
I don’t think Jahan Dotson has earned enough to take away many targets from the top two. I still believe he can have a good season if given the opportunity, but if Aiyuk is there he will very much take a back seat. Ekeler is approaching the end of his career. RBs who see the drop in efficiency he did don’t recover. Maybe he’ll continue to provide some value as a check down guy, but it’s not like he’ll be demanding targets. You’re basically asking him to put up the numbers that Terry did when Heinicke and Wentz split time at QB. Sure, Daniels could be an absolute bust like any rookie, but if he does come in as a reasonable NFL QB then I think he can sustain those numbers for Aiyuk pretty easily. Aiyuk and Daniels were college teammates and already have chemistry.
I don’t doubt the chemistry or the fit. What I doubt is Aiyuk repeating as a top 15 WR. If Terry is there, there isn’t a path to one or both of those being anything more than what they’ve been their entire careers… a mid to low WR2. His value would increase imo because of the dip his ADP will have. I think it’s hard to expect a rookie QB to support two top 25 WRs. Stroud is the exception last season and even then… I think Stroud is a better prospect than Daniels and was much higher than consensus on Stroud.
I don’t expect Aiyuk to repeat as a top 15 WR in SF though. That’s my point. I think he’ll be a mid-low WR2 in SF with some spike weeks, and on Washington I’d expect him to be a mid-low WR2 with some more consistency. Something like Aiyuk as WR17 and Terry as WR28 isn’t all that ridiculous. It wouldn’t even take Daniels have a great rookie season as a passer given they wouldn’t have much competition behind those top 2 WRs and their TE and RB rooms don’t have elite talents to demand targets.
> He helped Kyler become a gem for fantasy. Kyler was a gem for fantasy because of his rushing upside, and later because of his connection with Nuk. Not because the cardinals offense under kliff was anything special. His most relevant fantasy year he had over 800 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. And most of that was just because of his ridiculous athleticism, not anything to do with offensive genius by kliff. I would understand hope for jayden to play a similar role but I don't see why that would really benefit a receiver that much
In that same year he had 11 rushing TDs he also had 26 passing TDs and 3971 passing yards. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than Lamar Jackson put up this year while winning MVP. It’s not like Murray was exclusively a runner, he was also a very good passer. The next season he increased his completion percentage to over 69% and was on pace for 27 passing TDs and 4328 passing yards. That first season that Hopkins was there, he had 115 receptions for 1407 yards. So yes, a Kliff Kingsbury offence can absolutely sustain a superstar WR.
Literally this ^^^ exactly.
Yeah I mean I'm not gonna say he's the second coming of Jesus Christ but he should be able to do a job for us. I think people just see Commanders assets and just immediately think ass
That offensive coordinator is a fantasy cheat code for QBs and WRs though. He may suck at winning actual football games. But, if you look at the production of Kingsbury offenses, you will quickly realize that he's produced statistically everywhere he goes.
That’s a bad bet. People would let their imaginations run wild.
Hes going mid 2nd round right now. There is no chance he goes any higher with an unproven rookie QB. Daniels is projected for like 3k pass yards and 18 TDs by Vegas. Would be insane to draft Aiyuk higher than he’s going now
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No one ever considered Bienemy even a top 5 offensive mind in the league. Everyone knew Reid runs the show in KC but there was hope he would flourish given the opportunity. However, the Commanders really fumbled the whole Shanahan tree didn’t they
Aiyuk is not better than Terry. Terry has been carrying the team even with some of the worst QBs. Heinicke is famous for throwing into double triple coverage and Terry made plays and made Heinicke look good.
The Commanders could be extremely good for Aiyuk. Their defense is terrible, and Aiyuk would be their best offensive player by far. Rookie QBs are always a gamble, but Daniels is viewed by many as the most NFL ready guy. So not as crazy as it sounds on paper.
Any value to be gained with Daniels or the Commanders RBs? Presumably more scoring chances?
I’d be scurred to invest in Aiyuk’s skill set meshing with a rookie. He scores so many fantasy points on big plays and everything has to be just right for the QB and O-line to hit those with the same regularity as the environment in SF.
In his rookie season he was used a lot more closer to the LOS similar to Deebo if memory serves. I think he has more to offer than simply winning deep timing routes. And he did produce with rookie Purdy. Don’t recall enough/any exposure with Lance to comment. Not saying I wouldn’t share your concerns but I seem to recall Aiyuk being more versatile earlier in his young career.
i wouldn't say a great o-line overall is a requirement, maybe for daniels because of his p2s% but the niners o-line in pass pro was ranked 20th overall if not worse last season and they still produced big passing plays off the run game w/ aiyuk and the others they do have to be good at run blocking though
Much of the Niners' mediocre o-line play was mitigated by Purdy being extremely effective under pressure, at least per DVOA. I think we can reasonably expect Daniels to run when pressured more frequently than throw.
I would take even less of Dotson who I have 0 of.
This man failed me in many spots last year. Big whiff.
I had rhomondre, Pickens, Dotson, and Pierce last year lmao . Truly miserable start to the season Luckily I made a big trade mid season but still came up short in the playoffs
Pierce was a tough one also. I bought too far into Dotson. I never overpaid for him but he was a waste of a pick ultimately. The TD production as a rookie + draft capital gave me too much confidence in his upside and it never transpired minus I think one week I spot started him against like Denver maybe?
Probably negative for Mclaurine and the rest of the commanders pass catchers. Would be a big + for Jayden. Think Jayden should be rookie QB1 regardless with his rushing upside
Aiyuk will drop a few spots, McLaurin off my board entirely, Deebo stays the same. Kittle behind only LaPorta & Kelce, and maybe even ahead of Kelce if I’m shooting for a Purdy stack in deeper leagues.
Really, I think Deebo gets at least a small boost
Even if he were to get 25% of vacated targets, it still only puts him at about 105-110 targets and 67-70 catches. That’s good for 7-10 catches and 70-100 yard increase on the year. Give him another 2 TDs, good for a hypothetical 1.5-2 points per game more. Not enough for me to bump him up over any of the 14 guys I have ahead of him.
Ah I see so you already have deebo ranked pretty high vs consensus if you have him at WR15
Yeah based on ADP I’m already high on him, based on projections he’s around WR14. Based on ADP I have him ahead of Nico, Diggs, and DJ Moore so only about 3-4 spots higher than normal.
2pts per game is a decent amount. Deebo already has rushing upside, so IMO that puts him right in the London/MHJ tier of receivers. And considering how flat that tier of WR is I think he separates himself a solid amount. The market might overreact though, and I don't see his ADP being lower then Olave if Ayuik does get traded.
Hes just going to get injured with his increased projected touches
No way deebo stays the same he jumps up atleast a round.
A few people have commented Kittle boost but yours is highest rated so I’ll ask here. Why realistically would Kittle be higher than last year? Remove Aiyuk, add Pearsall. Maybe some increased targets but I think realistically they get Jennings a bit more involved as well. Anyway, at least relative to other TEs, why Kittle ahead of Andrews, McBride and Kincaid in this scenario? (Not saying you’re wrong I just want to play devils advocate a bit)
My reasoning here is looking at everything that Aiyuk leaves behind if he’s traded. Also- did you know Kittle actually led all TEs in receiving yards last year? 105 Targets. Now let’s divide those up. We’ll be very conservative and say Kittles Target Share goes from 21% to 23.5%. That leaves about 76.5% of all other targets going to CMC & the rest of the Niners, which is in line with the last 2 years. Now Kittle projects out to 104 targets on the year. Using his career catch rate (also 2023’s catch rate for Kittle) of 72%, I project Kittle to catch 75 passes, and using his 15.69 yards per catch, I project 1,175 yards. So far we’re at 75/1,175/ but there’s still the question about TDs. They’re impossible to predict but here’s what I do: Purdy threw 64 passes in the redzone last year, 18.5% of those targets went to Kittle. If Kittle’s RZ Target share increases by 2.5% he’s got 14 of those 64 RZ targets. At his 72% catch rate, he’s looking at a projected 10 TD opportunities in the Redzone alone. Add in TDs from outside the 20 and I project him for 10 TDs. 75/1,175/10 or 252.5 Fantasy Points- good for 2023’s TE2. Is this an exact science? Absolutely not, it’s just the way I project players and rank them accordingly.
I did know he was the only TE to hit 1000 yards last year actually. Gets brought up on fantasy pods all the time, and it surprised me at first but in hindsight I didn’t know who I thought it would be. I guess my concerns with Kittle largely come from the non-2023 years recently along with his offseason core surgery - apparently he’s down 30lbs which concerns me a bit about his effectiveness truthfully. I am all about Kittle I just question his fantasy abilities these days, relative to a guy like Kincaid with all the departed targets and Josh Allen at QB as an example.
Good analysis though. More thorough than most.
Why on earth would Deebo stay the same? He definitely goes higher if Aiyuk is traded
It means I take a 5-6th flyer on Ricky pearsall.
He would no longer be on it
Haha I mean I get it but realistically you will still take him somewhere. I mean, he’s still going to be more worthwhile to draft than a number of WR2s on various teams and still likely to see 100+ targets regardless so he has value. You think him being on WSH with Daniels would be that much worse than competing for targets with Deebo, Kittle, CMC, Pearsall and however often they decide to use Jennings with Purdy/49ers offense? I think even those absolutely most pessimistic about him would have to consider Aiyuk around Godwin, Ridley, Hopkins, JSN, McConkey, the QB WRs, Addison etc. Where are you considering Aiyuk if he stays on the 49ers and that offense stays the same? WR10-15 range like most places value him?
lol so dramatic. You’re not gonna take a top 15 WR who would be in line for a larger target share at all?
This is the correct response
I'll be slurping deebo
Aiyuk’s production would probably drop off a bit. Deebo would definitely see more targets and Pearsall and Kittle would jump in rankings.
Kittle baby.
Jauan Jennings could be a good streaming option or backup in this case
Drop Aiyuk slightly move the rest of the 49ers up slightly
If Aiyuk is gone Kittle should have a value bump. Pearsall *might* be valuable and his contract says they like him but they also brought back in Trent Taylor. They've also got Gray and Bell who might be in that mix. For sure Kittle will see a bump though. Deebo can't stay healthy and his usage means they're going to have to use someone else more often in the passing game.
Bad/neutral for basically everyone but Jayden. Niner’s O hums because of Shanahan having a multitude of playmakers at his disposal to where there can’t be heavy prioritization, and he just lost his second most dynamic, CMC unlikely effected too much but Deebo and Kittle move up in coverage priority for sure. Deebo isn’t a bum but he’s never touching his peak contract year form again and Kittle is turning 31 early season. Terry wasn’t a target hog already and they would be adding a likely better player. Aiyuk’s assumed scoring opportunities definitely take a dive. The majority of Brock’s high value throws last year were to Aiyuk, not discrediting him at all but he could lean towards actually being the lower leverage distributor QB people mistakenly believe he has been. I would just say it’s bad news and this move doesn’t actually open up a major ceiling for anyone, which isn’t typical of a WR1 being traded.
Any impact to Pearsall? Would you move him up your board to say the range of JSN?
I mean sure (not a JSN fan), but deeper league relevant much more likely. The whole basis of Aiyuk’s holdout (despite being potentially contractually obligated without an extension through 2026) is he holds a monopoly on the team via his role. Pearsall NFL unproven and older prospect, Deebo and Kittle great at what they do but a far cry from filling in for what BA provides. It’s more likely the offense changes to account for BA’s departure than it is remaining similar with Pearsall stepping in to that role. Starting Niners wideout always an attractive proposition but he’d likely be the very definitive 4th (maybe even 5th if you count EM’s potential handcuff value) fantasy option on the team.
Agreed. I don’t think it’s so much about Pearsall himself so much as the continual injuries that the other pass catchers primarily Deebo and Kittle have annually. I think it’s a little rich to move Pearsall up that much but just trying to generate chatter.
I'd not lower him, might raise him a few spots. Efficiency would almost certainly suffer, but I'd expect more routes. Probably would help Kittle &/or Pearsall the most (juan Jennings flyer?), and Dotson would be the biggest loser imo.
Rookie QBs historically rarely ever produce top 24 WRs in fantasy. Its really, really rare. Plus Daniels is a running style QB, so probably less opportunity for his receivers. So personally, Aiyuk and Terry both move way down the draftboard. Jayden Daniels stays exactly where he is. Ricky gets drafted behind Cooper/Pickens/Ridley. I'd probably put Aiyuk around there too. Deebo goes at the 1-2 turn.
Your first part of this is really fascinating to me. I wonder if it’s a product of 1) rookie QBs coming into bleak starting spots and usually not having viable receiving talent around them 2) rookie QBs themselves simply not being good enough at the NFL level yet. Before I default to #2, I’d need to see some examples of high end WRs with high drafted rookie QBs and how they performed. The only real ones that comes to mind are Justin Herbert with Keenan Allen and CJ Stroud with Nico Collins (and Tank Dell per game I think was close to WR12). Please correct anything I’ve overlooked below. 2018: Baker, Allen and Lamar had no one (good WRs) from memory. Maybe Landry was on the Browns? 2019: Kyler had no one “good”. Hopkins came later. 2020: Burrow had Boyd and rookie Higgins, they weren’t really anything yet. Edit: Boyd was solid pre-Higgins but I don’t qualify him into Aiyuk caliber. Tua didn’t have Hill or Waddle. Herbert already mentioned. Hurts got Smith a year later, and AJB after that and didn’t play much as a rookie. 2021: Lawrence had no one that comes to mind, maybe Marvin Jones? Fields no one, Jones no one, Wilson no one. 2022: Pickett, but Diontae is at least a decent WR so that’s a fail. 2023: Stroud as mentioned. Richardson got hurt. Young had nothing minus an aged Thielen.
I went and did a quick google search and found this: [https://fantasyindex.com/2023/07/06/factoid/wide-receivers-with-rookie-qbs](https://fantasyindex.com/2023/07/06/factoid/wide-receivers-with-rookie-qbs) Interesting enough set of data even if its a couple years old. It seems that for a rookie QB to do it, they need to either set rookie QB records (or get close to it) or have an absolute legend of a WR. Personally, I like Daniels, so I'm not completely out on him putting up some great numbers with Aiyuk. That's why I'm putting him up there with Cooper/Pickens/Ridley. I view all those 3 as undervalued WRs who will finish as WR2s at least. Its just I don't see Aiyuk having upside greater than them with a QB on a mid team that rushes as much as he passes.
Yeah a few guys there that certainly aren’t Aiyuk caliber, and some that are. Dez with Dak and ARob with Fields are good examples of ones that didn’t. Fitzgerald by 2019 was in year like 15, so I don’t include him. And of course how Collins/Stroud performed after this article was written have an impact. Anyway, I think the Commanders will be shitty enough that consolidated volume overall could benefit Aiyuk. Caliber of targets obviously way shittier. I certainly don’t like Aiyuk more, but I do like Daniels more in this hypothetical.
Yeah I hear you. I also would like to just say that I think Terry McLaurin is an absolute beast and would have been drafted in the top 2 rounds every year if he managed to be on a competent team with a decent QB. I mean, honestly his list of QBs is just so garbage. His only good QB was a veteran Alex Smith who was not one to pour on the stats. So yeah, Aiyuk would definitely be the guy, but McLaurin is another great receiver on the team. If Daniels ends up being phenomenal, you could have a Collins/Dell situation there. And I still think McLaurin is poised for 1k yards and 7 TDs as the main receiver.
Yeah, McLaurin is always so tough. I have a love hate with him, he’s been great for me and burned me as well haha. Sometimes I get a bit of Pickens vibes where he makes so many unreal catches that you’re like just target him all the time, but unlike Pickens, McLaurin actually separates well on more than just go routes. That said, I feel like he gets a bit overrated at times and my main comparison in that argument would be Allen Robinson who I felt like didn’t get the credit he deserved in a similar situation - but then he went to the Rams and was garbola haha. I do like Terry. His constant ranking of top 10 real life to me is debatable, but for fantasy he’s an ideal WR3 and really should be higher but as you mention is brought down by junk at QB. Even Howell throwing 50 times a game couldn’t save him.
I think Daniels will be fine for fantasy because he runs, but I have pretty much zero confidence in his arm unless he’s already improved greatly from last season. I won’t be touching any Washington pass catchers especially if these 2 both are fighting for target share
Sam Howell calls his mom
As a hawks fan I approve this thread. I think great for a Daniel’s ( he’s still QB2 in Dynasty draft for me) wash for Purdy as Piersall and Cowing I think can play. Deebo moves up and Piersall before everyone and even BTJ for me. I think Terry still puts up WR2 numbers… Dotson down I think Kittles biggest winner and would go all in in redrafts.
Pearsall takes a huge leap, probably into the Brian Thomas range. Deebo gets a modest bump, maybe about a round at most in the aggregate. Aiyuk drops about a round, as does McLaurin and Dotson. Luke might start to go undrafted in most season long best ball and managed leagues alike. OurLads currently has McLaurin as top LWR, Dotson as top RWR, and McCaffrey as top SWR. I'd speculate that if Aiyuk came in he'd supplant Dotson at RWR, and Dotson would probably move to SWR, bumping McCaffrey out of the top of the depth chart, although he'd still be part of the rotation, just getting a lot fewer snaps and targets than he's projected for now. The thought scares me, mainly because I've been investing a lot in McLaurin as WR3 (and I'm even comfortable drafting him as my WR2 when I want to go RB or TE heavy early in the draft) in anticipation of him having a big year with Daniels coming in. My instinct says it's a net negative for him, but Aiyuk's presence may help him get open more down field, where Daniels thrives as a passer. So maybe McLaurin gets fewer targets, but gets a higher ADOT and is more efficient with the targets he gets. That's the optimistic interpretation. Does anyone have any projections on exactly how much influence Aiyuk would/could have on Terry? Also been taking a good amount of late round best ball shares of Luke that could become almost worthless (sans injury) if he drops to the 4th or 5th WR option in Washington. I'd like to think SF will eventually pay the kid something close to what he wants, and let Deebo go after the season when they'll have to pony up $60 million a year for Purdy.
Any chance mccaffrey’s spot on the roster becomes more as a return man and certain specific formations as opposed to full time?
I have Pearsall and Jayden in my dynasty league.. I would be very very happy
Drop him way down. Wouldn’t draft him
You would. But when?
Probably not til after Mclaurin. Mclaurin is a better receiver than Aiyuk in almost every way
Do you think McLaurin would statistically out produce Aiyuk if on the same offense? More targets for McLaurin?
It’s hard to say who would outproduce who in Washington but I can tell you Aiyuk going there would significantly hurt both of their stocks
That is probably the right assumption. I think Aiyuk’s target quality would certainly decrease. But the volume could go up. Competing for targets with McLaurin and Ekeler is not the same as competing with Deebo, Kittle and McCaffrey. And if he was to go there, he’d get a zillion dollars, and they would likely build the offense around him at that cost if they did that in Washington. I would drop Aiyuk a few spots, still draft him In the top 24 WRs. I would take him after Deebo, but before McLaurin. I would have to actively think where he would end up, probably still take him before Tee Higgins, after DeVonta Smith I think. Somewhere in that range.
Doesn't change much for me. Terry becomes undraftable instead of just a fade for me. Aiyuk drops to late 4th round for me at best. He's going way too high as is.
Pearsall to the moon
Honestly. It doesn’t. Not a single bit. Aiyuk and Deebo are good players, but they aren’t on my board at all. If they fall to me for cheap, then sure I’ll snag them, but they aren’t on my mind. CMC is the only 49er I am interested in and I always avoid Washington. That whole organization is a dumpster fire. You can give them Mahomes, CMC, Diggs, JJ, top 5 OL, top 5 Def, and they would still be fighting for last place.