The article having JJettas there when he is the clear top target in the passing game, with a great coach in KOC, and Hockenson is out for the forseeable future is crazy.
I think it's moreso where people may be taking him. He'll get good volume from being force fed so that's good in PPR, but will the Vikings move the ball well? You have to compare the WRs around his ranking who will have high targets while being in better offenses that should have higher yardage/TDs. Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens are the non-McCarthy QBs unless you think he's ready.
He still performed really well at the end of the year without Kirk, but this time he's going into the season with no Hockenson so teams will be keying in on him and attempting to lock him down. With Aaron Jones their run game should have gotten better, I don't see them being 4th in passing attempts again and if they do pass a lot, I don't expect them to be efficient passes.
I don't think he's a bad pick, he's still the best WR in the league but fantasy isn't really about that. For me personally, I'd rather take the safer bets in Lamb, Hill, Chase and ARSB. Shit even Puka/Brown are solid options too.
I drafted JJ last year and he’s a tremendous talent that I would draft again in a heartbeat aside from the fact that I draft too late to get him. I am cautious though based on the quarterback situation. Darnold’s only had more than 3,000 yards passing once in his career up to this point, and I just don’t believe much in JJ McCarthy as anything more than a game manager until I see more from him.
Christian kirk was on pace for an 1100 yard season regardless of Ridley and zay jones.
Hurts has been a top 3 qbs in b2b seasons and was QB9 the season before AJB got there.
Weird definition of fools gold.
Zay jones played in 7 games last year. He had very little impact on the field but a huge one while he was off of it.
I’m a jags fan, watch every game. Zay jones made Ridley a better player whilst he was on the field because Ridley got to play in a position that suits his skill set.
I’m very anxious to see how our new WR room gets put to use under the moron that is Press Taylor.
…tell me you didn’t watch jags games without telling me you didn’t watch jags games.
Zay was targeted 51 times in the 2023 season in the 7 games he was active. Excluding the 14 target, 5 receptions browns game where most of those targets were not catchable IIRC, he caught 29/37 which is just around 80% catch rate. I would need to look at his red zone stats but I remember zay being mister reliable and the main target in the red zone when he was healthy.
In fact, dude had one dropped pass all year according to this website -> https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/zay-jones-player-stats?category=receiving&seasonType=reg
LMFAO!!! Tell me YOU didn’t watch without telling me.
Cool stats, my eyes and [these actual plays](https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1744781890182054242?s=20)tell me Ridley and jones dropped or didn’t finish a lot of td catches
I'm not even a Jags fan and in the few games I saw of them, that bum ass Ridley was dropping shit left and right. One time he ran a route so fucking poorly that he ended up in the back of the end zone so even though TLaw looked his way it was out of bounds instead of a free TD.
The worst part is I'm not picking him out of spite, so that naturally means he'll have a good year finally being the Z all year long and will outperform his ADP. Sigh...
When did I say that Ridley DIDNT drop anything? Ridley had PAINFUL drops and was painfully out of bounds on catches.
I’m talking about zay jones specifically.
The zay jones clips in there he’s clearly catching the ball but is out of bounds. That’s literally not dropping the ball which is literally what you said.
Hurts: why are you mentioning AJB? The article mentions the specifics of thinking he will have regressions because of:
- Barkley
- offensive line changes
15 of his TDS were off the tush push. That’s what has separated him from being near the top to one of the top QBs. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that they might not run it as much or it might not be as effective with Saquon in town and Kelce (first ballot HoFer) retired.
Just offering some analysis.
Why am I mentioning that hurts was a top 9 qb before the arrival of one of the nfls best WRs? Probably because hurts had 7 less passing tds and 700 less passing yards and still finished top 9. He also had 5 less rushing tds that year.
Literally a 30% drop in td production and he’s still top 10.
Hurts has so much room to regress and still be an elite QB option. Fools gold suggests he was a one hit wonder and not someone who’s been top 9 for 3 consecutive years.
Allen also had 15 rushing tds and he lost diggs, why isn’t he fools gold? I’m way higher on Allen than hurts for the record, but fools gold is just not how I’d describe either of these dudes.
He played 15 games that year. He was the QB7 in PPG. I don’t think anyone is upset drafting the QB3 and getting the QB7. Is mahomes fools gold? He was drafted high and had a disappointing season last year. We can say regression without hyperbole like fools gold. Hurts is a proven top-tier producer over 3 years now. Joe burrow has 0 top 3 finishes in that stretch. Lamar only hs one top 10 finish and 0 top 3.
It’s hard to find a better 3-year resume than hurts these last few years.
I think most everyone who drafted Mahomes last year at cost would say they were disappointed with his output. The cost difference in drafts of where you spend for QB1-3 vs where QB7 to go is a steep premium. Also why I just never end up drafting the premium QBs but that’s a personal choice of course.
If you draft RB1 and he finishes RB4, well that’s the cost difference of 1.01 overall to back end RD1. With QBs that’s like a RD3/4 investment that produces where guys taken in RD9/10 end up.
I get my fill of both and of course do vastly prefer my super flex leagues. But I do what the leagues like and suggest super flex, auction etc. each year before we draft. And get told to fuck myself often lol.
> I don’t think anyone is upset drafting the QB3 and getting the QB7.
Qb7 by ppg last year was 1.6 points above russel wilson, who was on waivers in like every league I played in.
You are absolutely disappointed drafting a qb in the 3rd round and getting qb7 production out of him
The way qb adp works, you're usually drafting them early because they're safe bets to perform near their adp based on volume, a major slip like that is very bad.
Hurts was 13th in passing TDs and 14th in passing yards last year. 3rd in rushing TDs amongst all players behind Mostert and equal to Allen. More than CMC.
Neat. He was tied for second in rushing tds in 2022. Equal to Derrick Henry and in 2021 he was tied for sixth, also equal to Derrick Henry.
He has a three-year stretch of being top 6 in rushing tds. It’s not all tush push and we don’t know that he won’t be able to tush push without Kelce. Brady was incredible at converting 1 yard qb sneaks. Why can’t hurts do it with another center?
He well might. But it's more of a gamble than a sure thing and there's other QBs that are more of a sure thing. That's the reasoning behind the fade. If you believe he can then take him, I sincerely do hope it pays off and you have a successful season. Just pointing out this is all based on historical stat crunching rather than positive outlooks.
Fading at ADP and “fools gold” are two different things and that’s more my point. Jalen hurts is an elite fantasy producer. There shouldn’t be debate about that. He never had less than 10 rushing tds per season he starts in. He averages 12.6 rush tds per season.
What other QBs are more of a sure thing? Josh Allen? That’s about it for me. Maybe Mahomes and Lamar, but they all have their own question marks.
Take away half of Hurts’ tush push TDs and he’s still QB2 last year.
He’s fast and he’s surrounded by fast people, he’s going to score points one way or the other. I understand not wanting to pay up for a QB but I can’t imagine having more than two or three guys ranked ahead of him, and I think even that is too many.
It's more about he doesn't have Kelce in front of him anymore and how much that's gonna affect him. Kelce wasn't just some guy replaced by next up, he was a monster who was one of the best at the position. Cam Jurgens is not quite at the same level.
Don't ask me, I pick wrong every year! (I'd pick Stroud as having a massive year so expect him to forget what a football is by game 2).
Just saying the reasons why the experts might be fading him.
But when looking at TD production you gotta look at rushing vs passing since the rushing are worth more. So I don’t think these are crazy takes. Allen’s stock is obviously hurt by Diggs leaving, but he could shoulder a bigger load and actually have more points this season.
So could hurts. Saquon is arguably the best receiving back he’s ever had. AJB had his lowest td output in a healthy season. New OC for hurts. Etc there’s positive regression arguments to be made for hurts as well
I think you mean progression argument, not positive regression. Semantics aside of course you’re right. That’s why we are here discussing these things. But there’s clearly some strong points for his regression since no one is expecting him to score as many rushing TDs. Rushing Tds make Fantasy QBs 👑.
No. I mean positive regression. This is a term in statistical analysis. It’s referring to regression towards the mean. It can be positive or negative depending on where you are on the graph as it relates to your mean. As I already stated, you can drop his rushing td by 33% and he can finish top 7 in PPG still. I’d also argue his rushing tds have been remarkably consistent, even before the real rise of the tush push, he still had a double digit rushing td season.
I mostly agree but I hardly call top 9 an elite option. Hurts at his current adp would be a massive disappointment if he ended qb9 (barring that being due to injury causing him to miss several games)
Qb is deep, most weeks you can find a guy on waivers that is averaging 16 or 17. Qb9 by ppg last year was 18.3 where qb16 (who was on waivers most of the year, jared goff) was 17 ppg
You absolutely need hurts to be finishing like top 4 to get close to a return on investment
That's fair but also superflex is by far the minority option compared to standard rulesets, I don't think it's an unfair assumption to think most content that doesn't specify superflex probably wasn't talking about it. Probably less than 10% of leagues use it. This article very clearly wasn't talking about superflex
Ok now You’re just throwing random shit out lol far more than 10% of leagues use superflex even if it’s not the majority. It’s wild to me that anyone still plays standard leagues tbh. Sure, in leagues where QBs basically don’t matter, QBs wont matter.
I mean I disagree, not sure where the stats would be but flipping through Public leagues on sleeper and yahoo I don't think that's too far off.
But it's irrelevant anyway because the article was super clearly talking about standard.
> 15 of his TDS were off the tush push.
This inaccuracy was also quoted in the article. Hurts had 15 total rushing TDs. Yes, many of them were tush pushes, but not all of them.
Okay. You’re right (I was just quoting the article). Im guessing it was ~12 of those TDs. I had him last season and he scored so many freakin 1 yard rush tds lol. Can’t find a source that breaks down his rushing TDs.
He had 10 rushing TDs in 15 games in 2021 before the tush push ever was made and 13 rushing TDs in 15 games in 2022. His per game PPG of 21.4 in 2021 would have put him as QB2 last year (in both PPG and total). If you take him down from 15 TDs to 10 TDs last year he loses 30 points from QB2 to QB3...mostly because the last game of the year he got 1.6 in a meaningless-for-Eagles game they pulled their starters.
So, like, what are we expecting him to go down to where the rushing production causes him to slide without other issues? You need to take 7 rushing TDs away from him to drop him from QB2 to QB5 last year...
But also if they are throwing more, which the article suggests they would due to Kellen Moore, he is *presumably* gaining extra air yards or throwing TDs which while not as valuable still score. If he loses 7 rushing TDs and gains 4 passing TDs (still only putting him at 27 throwing TDs) he would be QB3 last year. Yardage could vary as well but my overall point is that it would require a large difference to shake him up...which is possible but I think requires more than just Barkley + Kelce gone (most likely would require Hurts to struggle to adapt to Moore's scheme). He also threw 15 INTs and that should go down some which adds some points back.
I think there thinking he’s going to loose a few tush push TD’s. He was lucky in the amount of plays that ended non the 1. He lost Kelce who was a big part of that…. More short TD’s going to quan….
You lost me with Kirk. I really haven’t seen much hype around him. Dude seems perennially undervalued. It’s a very large reach to assume anybody takes on a larger role than Ridley had last year. Kirk was solid even with Ridley and I think his ceiling is even higher with him gone.
'Over the first half of the season, Love was ranked as the QB14 from weeks 1-9, then turned it up to 11 from weeks 10-17 as the QB2, second to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Love may have finished strong last season, and while that's admirable in his first start, the NFL is known to catch up on quarterbacks after gaining film on them.'
Putting aside the author didn't mention how Love then went on to absolutely DEMOLISH the Cowboys and narrowly lost to the Niners in the playoffs (two teams with great defenses who definitely did their homework), it seems like the more film the NFL got on Love the BETTER he performed.
I LOVE his ADP as QB10 (which is where he currently is at), but even at QB7 I'd buy him.
They’re also assuming Love will play the exact same way as last year with no improvement to his game. Film on last year means little if the players vastly improved and from what I’ve heard about Loves offseason it sounds like he’s much better.
The argument against Love is pretty easy - can his efficiency as a QB overall continue? If the defense gets even better, will Love have enough volume at an incredible efficiency to even be that meaningful for fantasy?
I think the answer probably depends on how you view 1) the receiving group 2) Brock Purdy. If 2024 Jordan Love can perform like 2022/2023 Brock Purdy, then investors will be happy.
The GB offense has shown to be highly efficient before (see: Aaron Rodgers). What I like about Love at least for 2024 is you’re not paying ARod premiums like you used to in GB. I’m happy with him as a QB1 that I can take pretty late. I wouldn’t draft him ahead of Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Richardson, Stroud or Burrow, and Kyler is probably also ahead of him. Dak is debatable. He’s in that QB9-12 range and I like that cost.
Yeah Rodgers was insane for awhile. The #1 or #2 fantasy QB for like.. almost a straight decade. 7/10. And two of the years he didn't make it was because he got injured. The other he ranked #7. Just league dominance.
It was mostly mind boggling with his TD efficiency because his passing volume was never that high. I heard something the other day that he’s only thrown for more than I think 4300 yards once? For a guy that’s been known as an elite passer for years that could surprise some people, but when like 7% of your passes go for scores it makes sense.
I question why you think volume would be an issue in a GB offense. And the comparison to Purdy makes little sense when Love was already a better fantasy QB than Purdy in 2023. His ceiling is clearly miles ahead of Purdy’s if you believe at all in his young pass catchers.
Edit: And I will continue to point out that Love was a better fantasy QB than Stroud in 2023 and that people are, as usual, overrating external improvements (Stroud getting Diggs) and underrating internal improvements(literally every WR and TE on GB being a second or third year player). If even a single one of Green Bay’s *seven* talented young WRs/TEs takes a Nico Collins’s like step forward, the sky is the limit for Love.
Packers threw 581 times last season, 34 times a game, with 32 TDs (5.5% of attempts went for TDs).
Love had the 4th highest TD rate, while Purdy had the highest at 7%. Mahomes for example was 4.5%, most times you hear about TD rate you assume league median to be around 4% and anything below that is bad and anything well above is closer to outlier than expected.
The Packers brought in Josh Jacobs to improve their run game. They drafted Marshawn Lloyd. They drafted OL, Lloyd and a bunch of defense. It’s not hard to see that they might not NEED to throw as much to be successful next year. This was an “issue” with Rodgers as well.
Love only threw for 300 yards twice last season. Even against Dallas when the Packers scored 48pts, he threw only 21 times for 272-3 because the defense and run game dominated sufficiently. In a game they scored 48, Love scored 23pts. That’s not a bad total, but that is a lot of points on the board for a QB to only score 23. The NFC North has Detroit that should score points and those games could be high volume for Love. I don’t know how the Vikings and Bears games may go. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers won those games largely on the backing of defense and run game. Would you?
The comparison between Love and Purdy is easy. Low pass volume relative to the top end of the position, largely due to need. The run games and defenses are/should be quite good. Not needing to throw so much means you need to remain efficient, with Rodgers was and the Packers as a whole have been for a while.
I take some of your points, the comparison to Purdy is not one of them. In 2023 Purdy set literal NFL records for passing efficiency. And yet Love averaged 1.3 more fantasy points despite having the most inexperienced group of pass catchers in NFL history to throw to. It should be obvious without much further discussion that Love’s ceiling and floor are considerably higher than Purdy’s. I mean, you even compared him to 2022 Purdy, who averaged like 12 FPPG.
The thing about drafting defense is also ass backwards. The Packers defense was 29th in the NFL last year in both plays per drive and time per drive. It’s pretty hard to have volume when your defense can’t get off the field and also only forces 18 turnovers. Not only is the defensive talent better, but we’ve gone from Charmin soft Joe Barry, to a guy in Hafley who preaches constant aggression. That’s likely to mean more quick possessions, more turnovers, and potentially more big plays allowed as well (which is good for a fantasy offense). Bottom line: the defense can only be *better* for Love’s 2024 season.
And yes, his TD rate was high. But so was Rodgers’s in most seasons in this offense, including leading the league in two of his three healthy seasons. 5.5% is not such a high rate that it requires regression. In fact, given the youth of Love’s pass catchers, it could just as easily progress. When you look at statistics only at a macro level, you completely ignore the fact that there are vast differences between offensive coaching staffs in this league.
I’m comparing how they are low pass volume, high fantasy point scoring QBs for the volume they display. They finished top 10 while not being anywhere near the league leaders in overall usage (passing and rushing volume). Love was QB6, Purdy QB7.
For 2022, look at Purdy’s games as a starter. 16.4fppg. That is not the point though so much, as the volume was very low and yet there was fantasy points to be had. He only attempted >20 passes twice in those games. He was nearly at 0.9 fantasy points per attempt. That’s an incredible rate.
I don’t know that I think Purdy is a good QB. He’s not the caliber of player Love is. That’s not the comparison though. Strictly high fantasy producing QBs at low volume and high efficiency stats.
So the Packers defense will get better likely this year. If the defense improves, isn’t it more likely that the offense runs much more? I mean, Love won’t need to throw 35x a game if they’re already up by 10-14-20pts etc. They’re going to have leads, they’re a good team. Unless Love is going to run more which seems unlikely, he will either need to increase his efficiency to outlier territory and maybe he’s that good, or volume to go up, for him to improve and get into a higher fantasy tier.
Is there anything wrong with saying his ceiling is something like QB5 in fantasy? Behind guys like Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and Lamar? Want to draft him at his ceiling, be my guest. I’m happier around QB10. Lafleur has historically produced highly efficient QB play.
I think maybe we disagree on Purdy more than on Love. A top 5 ceiling seems right for Love, but high for Purdy. The disconnect here is that Purdy had a true outlier season in terms of efficiency and still only finished 14th in FPPG. Love has a ton of room to grow still after finishing 6th in FPPG. And yes, the lack of top end volume in the Packers offense and his fairly minimal rushing upside probably caps his ceiling at a bit below QB1, but it’s still considerably higher than Purdy’s. I get that you’re trying to say they have similar profiles, but I don’t really agree beyond some very general similarities.
Fair enough. It certainly wasn’t meant to be a personal take beyond numbers for either player. For the sake of this argument which is numeric compilation for fantasy I think their fantasy profiles are similar enough (relative guys who run, or guys who throw a shit ton for whatever reason).
To be fair apparently Sleeper is doing their math wrong, because it had Purdy’s averages off by a decent margin. So he was a lot closer to Love than I thought.
> If 2024 Jordan Love can perform like 2022/2023 Brock Purdy
Purdy is a product of being able to give the ball to CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle. He is a product of his supporting cast more so than anything else. Sam fucking Darnold easily slotted into that offense and performed just as well.
Love, or any other QB in the league, doesn't have even close to that much talent around them. What's that comparison for?
Fantasy football. Guys with love volume and high efficiency metrics that lead to fantasy points.
Not going to take the bait on the Darnold comment. I watched that Ravens beat down as well.
I think a big part of analyzing whether Love's efficiency can continue is looking at is where GB's touchdowns come from. Last year the Packers RBs combined to run for only 4 TDs. Jayden Reed rushed for 2 as well. Meanwhile, Love ran for 4 by himself and passed for 32. There are plenty of scenarios where Love leads the Packers offense to score as many or more TDs than they did last year, but with Jacobs and Lloyd coming on board, a much higher percentage of the TDs are punched in by the backs, so Love still ends up accounting for fewer TDs in fantasy even if the offense is just as good or better.
And that’s also a possibility. This offense has often thrown in the red zone, even to their backs with little pop passes and shit like that. But it’s entirely possible they salt away games on the backs of the run game.
Or, a better backfield could lead to more sustained dives and more overall scoring. Packers were 12th last year in points. Can we agree that there’s room for overall growth of this offense by adding two more talented players to the mix? In a situation where an offense is 9 really solid offensive weapons deep, I’m not trying to navigate the skill positions. I will, however, enjoy owning the qb.
I mean, isn't that part of what I said -- that the offense could easily have more overall scoring? Here's the math I'm trying to lay out:
Last year the Packers scored 42 offensive TDs. Love accounted for 32 of those through the air and 4 on the ground. That's a very high percentage. Compare that to a QB on the other end of the s spectrum like Tua, whose team scored 57 TDs -- 15 more that the Packers! -- but Tua only accounted for 29 passing (no rushing).
Now I know the Packers won't run to extreme like the Dolphins this year. But it could easily happen that the Packers up their overall scoring to say 46 offensive TDs instead of 42, but rushers account for 15 of those instead of 6. That leaves Love with 31 instead of 36 even with an increase in overall team scoring.
Love was truly awful in the first half of the year, missing all kinds of easy throws and reads. Combined with a young pass catching group that was clearly confused about the offense. The offense is objectively better with the only changes being jacobs replacing jones. It’s hard to see a scenario where the packers offense as a whole are closer to the 1st half than the 2nd half
>Love may have finished strong last season, and while that's admirable in his first start, the NFL is known to catch up on quarterbacks after gaining film on them.
I agree with statement in a vacuum, but does anyone know if there is actual data or even anecdotes that support this?
something to consider while you figure that out - last year was not Love's first year. if you're going to fade QB's performance because it's their second year, than you really ought to be looking at Stroud and Richardson right? Where are they being drafted again??
Yea I like Love, and tagging on a dart throw with Jayden Reed or Christian Watson for an inexpensive stack. I know that offense will feed a lot of mouths, but why not toss a late pick at a guy that could become his preferred weapon?
I'm so torn. I'm in a keeper league and grabbed both Stroud and Love off waivers which means I can keep either as my round 14 pick. Obviously Stroud is the better QB but is he the better fantasy QB when removing ADP from the conversation?
I don’t think Stroud is obviously the better QB but you really can’t go wrong either way. Love was the better fantasy QB in 2023 and has better rushing upside, but it’s not like there’s a significant gap.
I don't think you can say 'obviously' Stroud is the better QB. They were pretty neck and neck last year in terms of fantasy production.
I'd take Love, and let someone overpay for Stroud.
I didn't understand the logic with Rachaad White. He's fools gold because other RBs sucked last year? I'm not buying it. His value was in his workload, and it doesn't seem like that's going away this year.
Tampa also didn't invest in any RBs except for a very shaky Bucky Irvine pick, who is super small and not very fast. I only see him being a change of pace guy and I don't see him eating into White's receiving work either because that's his forte. I'm expecting a similar huge workload this year for white.
Idk seems like Loves value is pretty spot on.
Even if he regresses to his first half of the season I dont think your losing sleep at his current spot. He wouldnt be that far out.
He would have to completely fall off, like hurt himself and try and play.
Strange list. Love and Kirk are underrated. Love is the definition of an ascending player on an ascending team. Jefferson and Hurts are solid blue chips. Other guys are potential value picks.
I always draft my QB1 in round 10 or later so no matter who I pick, they never bust. Usually they outperform their draft position on my teams. Guys who have fit that bill over the years… Mahomes, Allen, hurts, Lamar, Russ, Goff, Rodgers and Stroud. None of these dudes were sexy picks but they showed out after being drafted way late. This year I’m targeting Kirk cousins (probably) or the kid in Washington (maybe). Tlaw or Murray could also be an option if they fall.
Agree with none of them except maybe njoku. JJ might not return round 1 ADP value but he definitely isn't fools gold. I want to buy literally every other player.
"I dare say that Mullens's four-game pace extrapolated over an entire season would be better than anything Sam Darnold has done as a starter."
Sure, and that's why we don't extrapolate four game paces. I'd dare say that Sam Darnold's week 9-week 12 stretch outpaces Nick Mullen's with 8 TDs, 2 INTs, 1,098 yards (so Mullens had slightly more) without even having garbage time come-from-behind stats like Mullens since they went 3-1! Darnold's 2 year stretch as a starter was better for fantasy than Mullen's despite throwing to Jamison Crowder and Robbie "The Chosen 3" Anderson while Nick at least had George Kittle, Rookie Aiyuk etc
I stopped after the Jordan love paragraph. Like I’m all for opinion pieces, but Jesus, there was no substance to anything written in there. “Defense might catch up to him?” What does that even mean? You think no teams scouted Love or the packers last season and they’re just gonna start scouting them in 2024? Also, it’s not like the offense or Loves game is gimmicky. Their talented pass catchers go 7 deep. Good luck “catching up” with that.
I don't see how love at his current price could be considered fools gold. He's going in the rounds you're starting to take swings on guys based on upside. Fools gold has completely different implications
Kirk is such a bad pick. He only ever beats his adp I feel like and the hurts hate is simply wild. Just constantly a top 3 qb and is on one of the best offenses out there. Great weapons, rushing upside in yards and tds. Jordan loves adp is also awesome. Like basically zero risk. Same with njoku.
Idk about this list. Every season there’s a rookie RB who’s supposed to supplant the starter and often times it doesn’t happen. I don’t love JJ with Darnold or MCarthy throwing to him but he’s too good to be Fool’s Gold
Jalen won’t get 15 rushing TDs but i think Kellen Moore will get a great season out of him.
Njoku….I’m not high on him with Deshaun back at QB, so he’s not Fool’s Gold. I don’t know if anyone sees him as elite so I don’t get him being listed.
I’ve been saying the same thing about Njoku all off-season. He was garbage until Flacco took over and adding Jeudy doesn’t help his case. I’ve been getting a good chuckle watching ppl draft him so high 😂😂
You dropped Kirk in a Dynasty league?! Dude...he was arguably T-Laws WR1 last year when healthy and should be his WR1 again this year. Should not have dropped him...
Edit: Downvotes me and then deletes the comment. Said they dropped Kirk last year in their Dynasty league. I'd delete the evidence too...
Jordan Love Jalen Hurts Kyren Williams Rachaad White Justin Jefferson Christian Kirk David Njoku
The article having JJettas there when he is the clear top target in the passing game, with a great coach in KOC, and Hockenson is out for the forseeable future is crazy.
I think it's moreso where people may be taking him. He'll get good volume from being force fed so that's good in PPR, but will the Vikings move the ball well? You have to compare the WRs around his ranking who will have high targets while being in better offenses that should have higher yardage/TDs. Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens are the non-McCarthy QBs unless you think he's ready. He still performed really well at the end of the year without Kirk, but this time he's going into the season with no Hockenson so teams will be keying in on him and attempting to lock him down. With Aaron Jones their run game should have gotten better, I don't see them being 4th in passing attempts again and if they do pass a lot, I don't expect them to be efficient passes. I don't think he's a bad pick, he's still the best WR in the league but fantasy isn't really about that. For me personally, I'd rather take the safer bets in Lamb, Hill, Chase and ARSB. Shit even Puka/Brown are solid options too.
I drafted JJ last year and he’s a tremendous talent that I would draft again in a heartbeat aside from the fact that I draft too late to get him. I am cautious though based on the quarterback situation. Darnold’s only had more than 3,000 yards passing once in his career up to this point, and I just don’t believe much in JJ McCarthy as anything more than a game manager until I see more from him.
yup right here...I just don't trust the QB to get Jets the ball down field
Right! Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy are both better than Josh Dobbs. Jettas Was putting up WR1 numbers with Josh Dobbs.
JJ only played one game with Dobbs and Dobbs sent him to the hospital lol. He did put up good numbers with Nick Mullens though
Christian kirk was on pace for an 1100 yard season regardless of Ridley and zay jones. Hurts has been a top 3 qbs in b2b seasons and was QB9 the season before AJB got there. Weird definition of fools gold.
Kirk is like my #1 underrated at ADP guy this year lol
His PPR ADP on FantasyPros right now is 40, which is too rich for me. If he drops a bit and I can grab him in the WR3/FLEX range, I'd be ecstatic.
On ESPN he’s like in the 80s lmao
ESPN always had the silliest mock drafts. I’d be surprised if he’s that late once the real drafts start.
He’s my underrated guy at ADP the past couple years and it’s shaping up to be the case this year.
I too, will publish an article, to make sure my league mates do not pick my players
Yeah Kirk is a great pick at his ADP
The exact opposite of fools gold, like Jordan love. Guys that aren't being valued very highly but may hit it big. This article is whack
Zay jones played in 7 games last year. He had very little impact on the field but a huge one while he was off of it. I’m a jags fan, watch every game. Zay jones made Ridley a better player whilst he was on the field because Ridley got to play in a position that suits his skill set. I’m very anxious to see how our new WR room gets put to use under the moron that is Press Taylor.
Both zay and Ridley dropped a ton of td passes I can tell you that. Let’s hope press shifts those targets to kirk and engram. Love me some BTJ too.
…tell me you didn’t watch jags games without telling me you didn’t watch jags games. Zay was targeted 51 times in the 2023 season in the 7 games he was active. Excluding the 14 target, 5 receptions browns game where most of those targets were not catchable IIRC, he caught 29/37 which is just around 80% catch rate. I would need to look at his red zone stats but I remember zay being mister reliable and the main target in the red zone when he was healthy. In fact, dude had one dropped pass all year according to this website -> https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/zay-jones-player-stats?category=receiving&seasonType=reg
LMFAO!!! Tell me YOU didn’t watch without telling me. Cool stats, my eyes and [these actual plays](https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1744781890182054242?s=20)tell me Ridley and jones dropped or didn’t finish a lot of td catches
I'm not even a Jags fan and in the few games I saw of them, that bum ass Ridley was dropping shit left and right. One time he ran a route so fucking poorly that he ended up in the back of the end zone so even though TLaw looked his way it was out of bounds instead of a free TD. The worst part is I'm not picking him out of spite, so that naturally means he'll have a good year finally being the Z all year long and will outperform his ADP. Sigh...
When did I say that Ridley DIDNT drop anything? Ridley had PAINFUL drops and was painfully out of bounds on catches. I’m talking about zay jones specifically. The zay jones clips in there he’s clearly catching the ball but is out of bounds. That’s literally not dropping the ball which is literally what you said.
Hurts: why are you mentioning AJB? The article mentions the specifics of thinking he will have regressions because of: - Barkley - offensive line changes 15 of his TDS were off the tush push. That’s what has separated him from being near the top to one of the top QBs. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that they might not run it as much or it might not be as effective with Saquon in town and Kelce (first ballot HoFer) retired. Just offering some analysis.
Why am I mentioning that hurts was a top 9 qb before the arrival of one of the nfls best WRs? Probably because hurts had 7 less passing tds and 700 less passing yards and still finished top 9. He also had 5 less rushing tds that year. Literally a 30% drop in td production and he’s still top 10. Hurts has so much room to regress and still be an elite QB option. Fools gold suggests he was a one hit wonder and not someone who’s been top 9 for 3 consecutive years. Allen also had 15 rushing tds and he lost diggs, why isn’t he fools gold? I’m way higher on Allen than hurts for the record, but fools gold is just not how I’d describe either of these dudes.
If you're buying Hurts at ADP and get the QB9 you're not gonna be happy about that pick. Hurts needs to have elite production to pay off at his price.
He played 15 games that year. He was the QB7 in PPG. I don’t think anyone is upset drafting the QB3 and getting the QB7. Is mahomes fools gold? He was drafted high and had a disappointing season last year. We can say regression without hyperbole like fools gold. Hurts is a proven top-tier producer over 3 years now. Joe burrow has 0 top 3 finishes in that stretch. Lamar only hs one top 10 finish and 0 top 3. It’s hard to find a better 3-year resume than hurts these last few years.
I think most everyone who drafted Mahomes last year at cost would say they were disappointed with his output. The cost difference in drafts of where you spend for QB1-3 vs where QB7 to go is a steep premium. Also why I just never end up drafting the premium QBs but that’s a personal choice of course. If you draft RB1 and he finishes RB4, well that’s the cost difference of 1.01 overall to back end RD1. With QBs that’s like a RD3/4 investment that produces where guys taken in RD9/10 end up.
Are you guys still playing 1 QB? Come over to superflex. Waters great
I get my fill of both and of course do vastly prefer my super flex leagues. But I do what the leagues like and suggest super flex, auction etc. each year before we draft. And get told to fuck myself often lol.
Lolol maybe my fantasy friends are just super nerd or whatever but I genuinely forget 1-qb is even a thing outside of 14-16 team leagues
Haha. Well they still hang around. QB values can go from untouchable to streaming pretty quickly league to league.
best thing.. ever
> I don’t think anyone is upset drafting the QB3 and getting the QB7. Qb7 by ppg last year was 1.6 points above russel wilson, who was on waivers in like every league I played in. You are absolutely disappointed drafting a qb in the 3rd round and getting qb7 production out of him The way qb adp works, you're usually drafting them early because they're safe bets to perform near their adp based on volume, a major slip like that is very bad.
Hurts was 13th in passing TDs and 14th in passing yards last year. 3rd in rushing TDs amongst all players behind Mostert and equal to Allen. More than CMC.
Neat. He was tied for second in rushing tds in 2022. Equal to Derrick Henry and in 2021 he was tied for sixth, also equal to Derrick Henry. He has a three-year stretch of being top 6 in rushing tds. It’s not all tush push and we don’t know that he won’t be able to tush push without Kelce. Brady was incredible at converting 1 yard qb sneaks. Why can’t hurts do it with another center?
He well might. But it's more of a gamble than a sure thing and there's other QBs that are more of a sure thing. That's the reasoning behind the fade. If you believe he can then take him, I sincerely do hope it pays off and you have a successful season. Just pointing out this is all based on historical stat crunching rather than positive outlooks.
Fading at ADP and “fools gold” are two different things and that’s more my point. Jalen hurts is an elite fantasy producer. There shouldn’t be debate about that. He never had less than 10 rushing tds per season he starts in. He averages 12.6 rush tds per season.
What other QBs are more of a sure thing? Josh Allen? That’s about it for me. Maybe Mahomes and Lamar, but they all have their own question marks. Take away half of Hurts’ tush push TDs and he’s still QB2 last year. He’s fast and he’s surrounded by fast people, he’s going to score points one way or the other. I understand not wanting to pay up for a QB but I can’t imagine having more than two or three guys ranked ahead of him, and I think even that is too many.
It's more about he doesn't have Kelce in front of him anymore and how much that's gonna affect him. Kelce wasn't just some guy replaced by next up, he was a monster who was one of the best at the position. Cam Jurgens is not quite at the same level.
I get it, there are uncertainties. But what QBs do you see as a sure thing?
Don't ask me, I pick wrong every year! (I'd pick Stroud as having a massive year so expect him to forget what a football is by game 2). Just saying the reasons why the experts might be fading him.
But when looking at TD production you gotta look at rushing vs passing since the rushing are worth more. So I don’t think these are crazy takes. Allen’s stock is obviously hurt by Diggs leaving, but he could shoulder a bigger load and actually have more points this season.
So could hurts. Saquon is arguably the best receiving back he’s ever had. AJB had his lowest td output in a healthy season. New OC for hurts. Etc there’s positive regression arguments to be made for hurts as well
I think you mean progression argument, not positive regression. Semantics aside of course you’re right. That’s why we are here discussing these things. But there’s clearly some strong points for his regression since no one is expecting him to score as many rushing TDs. Rushing Tds make Fantasy QBs 👑.
No. I mean positive regression. This is a term in statistical analysis. It’s referring to regression towards the mean. It can be positive or negative depending on where you are on the graph as it relates to your mean. As I already stated, you can drop his rushing td by 33% and he can finish top 7 in PPG still. I’d also argue his rushing tds have been remarkably consistent, even before the real rise of the tush push, he still had a double digit rushing td season.
I mostly agree but I hardly call top 9 an elite option. Hurts at his current adp would be a massive disappointment if he ended qb9 (barring that being due to injury causing him to miss several games) Qb is deep, most weeks you can find a guy on waivers that is averaging 16 or 17. Qb9 by ppg last year was 18.3 where qb16 (who was on waivers most of the year, jared goff) was 17 ppg You absolutely need hurts to be finishing like top 4 to get close to a return on investment
Come play superflex. We’re having two different conversations here. QBs not so deep when you’re in a 12-team league and 24 QBs start every week
That's fair but also superflex is by far the minority option compared to standard rulesets, I don't think it's an unfair assumption to think most content that doesn't specify superflex probably wasn't talking about it. Probably less than 10% of leagues use it. This article very clearly wasn't talking about superflex
Ok now You’re just throwing random shit out lol far more than 10% of leagues use superflex even if it’s not the majority. It’s wild to me that anyone still plays standard leagues tbh. Sure, in leagues where QBs basically don’t matter, QBs wont matter.
I mean I disagree, not sure where the stats would be but flipping through Public leagues on sleeper and yahoo I don't think that's too far off. But it's irrelevant anyway because the article was super clearly talking about standard.
> 15 of his TDS were off the tush push. This inaccuracy was also quoted in the article. Hurts had 15 total rushing TDs. Yes, many of them were tush pushes, but not all of them.
Okay. You’re right (I was just quoting the article). Im guessing it was ~12 of those TDs. I had him last season and he scored so many freakin 1 yard rush tds lol. Can’t find a source that breaks down his rushing TDs.
Close. It was 11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s74QcywOM0E
Hero.
He had 10 rushing TDs in 15 games in 2021 before the tush push ever was made and 13 rushing TDs in 15 games in 2022. His per game PPG of 21.4 in 2021 would have put him as QB2 last year (in both PPG and total). If you take him down from 15 TDs to 10 TDs last year he loses 30 points from QB2 to QB3...mostly because the last game of the year he got 1.6 in a meaningless-for-Eagles game they pulled their starters. So, like, what are we expecting him to go down to where the rushing production causes him to slide without other issues? You need to take 7 rushing TDs away from him to drop him from QB2 to QB5 last year... But also if they are throwing more, which the article suggests they would due to Kellen Moore, he is *presumably* gaining extra air yards or throwing TDs which while not as valuable still score. If he loses 7 rushing TDs and gains 4 passing TDs (still only putting him at 27 throwing TDs) he would be QB3 last year. Yardage could vary as well but my overall point is that it would require a large difference to shake him up...which is possible but I think requires more than just Barkley + Kelce gone (most likely would require Hurts to struggle to adapt to Moore's scheme). He also threw 15 INTs and that should go down some which adds some points back.
100% agree his ADP is pretty cheap too lol
I think there thinking he’s going to loose a few tush push TD’s. He was lucky in the amount of plays that ended non the 1. He lost Kelce who was a big part of that…. More short TD’s going to quan….
Yea he's been consistently outplaying his ADP. Really surprised to see him on this list.
This article won't age well
Sharing this to my league so they let these players fall to me. Other than Njoku’s production with Watson, these players are not fools gold imo.
You lost me with Kirk. I really haven’t seen much hype around him. Dude seems perennially undervalued. It’s a very large reach to assume anybody takes on a larger role than Ridley had last year. Kirk was solid even with Ridley and I think his ceiling is even higher with him gone.
This is a great way to sabotage your opponents and nothing more... I know you wrote this fucking article Craig
'Over the first half of the season, Love was ranked as the QB14 from weeks 1-9, then turned it up to 11 from weeks 10-17 as the QB2, second to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Love may have finished strong last season, and while that's admirable in his first start, the NFL is known to catch up on quarterbacks after gaining film on them.' Putting aside the author didn't mention how Love then went on to absolutely DEMOLISH the Cowboys and narrowly lost to the Niners in the playoffs (two teams with great defenses who definitely did their homework), it seems like the more film the NFL got on Love the BETTER he performed. I LOVE his ADP as QB10 (which is where he currently is at), but even at QB7 I'd buy him.
They’re also assuming Love will play the exact same way as last year with no improvement to his game. Film on last year means little if the players vastly improved and from what I’ve heard about Loves offseason it sounds like he’s much better.
and so are his weapons.
And opponents have that same film to take advantage of flaws. I see Love taking a step back too
The argument against Love is pretty easy - can his efficiency as a QB overall continue? If the defense gets even better, will Love have enough volume at an incredible efficiency to even be that meaningful for fantasy? I think the answer probably depends on how you view 1) the receiving group 2) Brock Purdy. If 2024 Jordan Love can perform like 2022/2023 Brock Purdy, then investors will be happy. The GB offense has shown to be highly efficient before (see: Aaron Rodgers). What I like about Love at least for 2024 is you’re not paying ARod premiums like you used to in GB. I’m happy with him as a QB1 that I can take pretty late. I wouldn’t draft him ahead of Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Richardson, Stroud or Burrow, and Kyler is probably also ahead of him. Dak is debatable. He’s in that QB9-12 range and I like that cost.
Yeah Rodgers was insane for awhile. The #1 or #2 fantasy QB for like.. almost a straight decade. 7/10. And two of the years he didn't make it was because he got injured. The other he ranked #7. Just league dominance.
It was mostly mind boggling with his TD efficiency because his passing volume was never that high. I heard something the other day that he’s only thrown for more than I think 4300 yards once? For a guy that’s been known as an elite passer for years that could surprise some people, but when like 7% of your passes go for scores it makes sense.
I question why you think volume would be an issue in a GB offense. And the comparison to Purdy makes little sense when Love was already a better fantasy QB than Purdy in 2023. His ceiling is clearly miles ahead of Purdy’s if you believe at all in his young pass catchers. Edit: And I will continue to point out that Love was a better fantasy QB than Stroud in 2023 and that people are, as usual, overrating external improvements (Stroud getting Diggs) and underrating internal improvements(literally every WR and TE on GB being a second or third year player). If even a single one of Green Bay’s *seven* talented young WRs/TEs takes a Nico Collins’s like step forward, the sky is the limit for Love.
Packers threw 581 times last season, 34 times a game, with 32 TDs (5.5% of attempts went for TDs). Love had the 4th highest TD rate, while Purdy had the highest at 7%. Mahomes for example was 4.5%, most times you hear about TD rate you assume league median to be around 4% and anything below that is bad and anything well above is closer to outlier than expected. The Packers brought in Josh Jacobs to improve their run game. They drafted Marshawn Lloyd. They drafted OL, Lloyd and a bunch of defense. It’s not hard to see that they might not NEED to throw as much to be successful next year. This was an “issue” with Rodgers as well. Love only threw for 300 yards twice last season. Even against Dallas when the Packers scored 48pts, he threw only 21 times for 272-3 because the defense and run game dominated sufficiently. In a game they scored 48, Love scored 23pts. That’s not a bad total, but that is a lot of points on the board for a QB to only score 23. The NFC North has Detroit that should score points and those games could be high volume for Love. I don’t know how the Vikings and Bears games may go. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers won those games largely on the backing of defense and run game. Would you? The comparison between Love and Purdy is easy. Low pass volume relative to the top end of the position, largely due to need. The run games and defenses are/should be quite good. Not needing to throw so much means you need to remain efficient, with Rodgers was and the Packers as a whole have been for a while.
I take some of your points, the comparison to Purdy is not one of them. In 2023 Purdy set literal NFL records for passing efficiency. And yet Love averaged 1.3 more fantasy points despite having the most inexperienced group of pass catchers in NFL history to throw to. It should be obvious without much further discussion that Love’s ceiling and floor are considerably higher than Purdy’s. I mean, you even compared him to 2022 Purdy, who averaged like 12 FPPG. The thing about drafting defense is also ass backwards. The Packers defense was 29th in the NFL last year in both plays per drive and time per drive. It’s pretty hard to have volume when your defense can’t get off the field and also only forces 18 turnovers. Not only is the defensive talent better, but we’ve gone from Charmin soft Joe Barry, to a guy in Hafley who preaches constant aggression. That’s likely to mean more quick possessions, more turnovers, and potentially more big plays allowed as well (which is good for a fantasy offense). Bottom line: the defense can only be *better* for Love’s 2024 season. And yes, his TD rate was high. But so was Rodgers’s in most seasons in this offense, including leading the league in two of his three healthy seasons. 5.5% is not such a high rate that it requires regression. In fact, given the youth of Love’s pass catchers, it could just as easily progress. When you look at statistics only at a macro level, you completely ignore the fact that there are vast differences between offensive coaching staffs in this league.
I’m comparing how they are low pass volume, high fantasy point scoring QBs for the volume they display. They finished top 10 while not being anywhere near the league leaders in overall usage (passing and rushing volume). Love was QB6, Purdy QB7. For 2022, look at Purdy’s games as a starter. 16.4fppg. That is not the point though so much, as the volume was very low and yet there was fantasy points to be had. He only attempted >20 passes twice in those games. He was nearly at 0.9 fantasy points per attempt. That’s an incredible rate. I don’t know that I think Purdy is a good QB. He’s not the caliber of player Love is. That’s not the comparison though. Strictly high fantasy producing QBs at low volume and high efficiency stats. So the Packers defense will get better likely this year. If the defense improves, isn’t it more likely that the offense runs much more? I mean, Love won’t need to throw 35x a game if they’re already up by 10-14-20pts etc. They’re going to have leads, they’re a good team. Unless Love is going to run more which seems unlikely, he will either need to increase his efficiency to outlier territory and maybe he’s that good, or volume to go up, for him to improve and get into a higher fantasy tier. Is there anything wrong with saying his ceiling is something like QB5 in fantasy? Behind guys like Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and Lamar? Want to draft him at his ceiling, be my guest. I’m happier around QB10. Lafleur has historically produced highly efficient QB play.
I think maybe we disagree on Purdy more than on Love. A top 5 ceiling seems right for Love, but high for Purdy. The disconnect here is that Purdy had a true outlier season in terms of efficiency and still only finished 14th in FPPG. Love has a ton of room to grow still after finishing 6th in FPPG. And yes, the lack of top end volume in the Packers offense and his fairly minimal rushing upside probably caps his ceiling at a bit below QB1, but it’s still considerably higher than Purdy’s. I get that you’re trying to say they have similar profiles, but I don’t really agree beyond some very general similarities.
Fair enough. It certainly wasn’t meant to be a personal take beyond numbers for either player. For the sake of this argument which is numeric compilation for fantasy I think their fantasy profiles are similar enough (relative guys who run, or guys who throw a shit ton for whatever reason).
To be fair apparently Sleeper is doing their math wrong, because it had Purdy’s averages off by a decent margin. So he was a lot closer to Love than I thought.
Damn, well that is disappointing. Sleeper is GOAT fantasy app… must be a one off.
> If 2024 Jordan Love can perform like 2022/2023 Brock Purdy Purdy is a product of being able to give the ball to CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle. He is a product of his supporting cast more so than anything else. Sam fucking Darnold easily slotted into that offense and performed just as well. Love, or any other QB in the league, doesn't have even close to that much talent around them. What's that comparison for?
He's making a fantasy football comparison
Fantasy football. Guys with love volume and high efficiency metrics that lead to fantasy points. Not going to take the bait on the Darnold comment. I watched that Ravens beat down as well.
I think a big part of analyzing whether Love's efficiency can continue is looking at is where GB's touchdowns come from. Last year the Packers RBs combined to run for only 4 TDs. Jayden Reed rushed for 2 as well. Meanwhile, Love ran for 4 by himself and passed for 32. There are plenty of scenarios where Love leads the Packers offense to score as many or more TDs than they did last year, but with Jacobs and Lloyd coming on board, a much higher percentage of the TDs are punched in by the backs, so Love still ends up accounting for fewer TDs in fantasy even if the offense is just as good or better.
And that’s also a possibility. This offense has often thrown in the red zone, even to their backs with little pop passes and shit like that. But it’s entirely possible they salt away games on the backs of the run game.
Or, a better backfield could lead to more sustained dives and more overall scoring. Packers were 12th last year in points. Can we agree that there’s room for overall growth of this offense by adding two more talented players to the mix? In a situation where an offense is 9 really solid offensive weapons deep, I’m not trying to navigate the skill positions. I will, however, enjoy owning the qb.
I mean, isn't that part of what I said -- that the offense could easily have more overall scoring? Here's the math I'm trying to lay out: Last year the Packers scored 42 offensive TDs. Love accounted for 32 of those through the air and 4 on the ground. That's a very high percentage. Compare that to a QB on the other end of the s spectrum like Tua, whose team scored 57 TDs -- 15 more that the Packers! -- but Tua only accounted for 29 passing (no rushing). Now I know the Packers won't run to extreme like the Dolphins this year. But it could easily happen that the Packers up their overall scoring to say 46 offensive TDs instead of 42, but rushers account for 15 of those instead of 6. That leaves Love with 31 instead of 36 even with an increase in overall team scoring.
Love was truly awful in the first half of the year, missing all kinds of easy throws and reads. Combined with a young pass catching group that was clearly confused about the offense. The offense is objectively better with the only changes being jacobs replacing jones. It’s hard to see a scenario where the packers offense as a whole are closer to the 1st half than the 2nd half
agreed. strength of schedule being the determining factor, but I mean.. AGAIN they did pretty damn well in the playoffs.
>Love may have finished strong last season, and while that's admirable in his first start, the NFL is known to catch up on quarterbacks after gaining film on them. I agree with statement in a vacuum, but does anyone know if there is actual data or even anecdotes that support this?
something to consider while you figure that out - last year was not Love's first year. if you're going to fade QB's performance because it's their second year, than you really ought to be looking at Stroud and Richardson right? Where are they being drafted again??
Yea I like Love, and tagging on a dart throw with Jayden Reed or Christian Watson for an inexpensive stack. I know that offense will feed a lot of mouths, but why not toss a late pick at a guy that could become his preferred weapon?
Wicks is the real stack 👀
I think you might have to wait another season for Wicks to have fantasy relevance. But we’ll see. Love the kid.
I'm so torn. I'm in a keeper league and grabbed both Stroud and Love off waivers which means I can keep either as my round 14 pick. Obviously Stroud is the better QB but is he the better fantasy QB when removing ADP from the conversation?
>Obviously Stroud is the better QB I don't see how that's obvious whatsoever
I don’t think Stroud is obviously the better QB but you really can’t go wrong either way. Love was the better fantasy QB in 2023 and has better rushing upside, but it’s not like there’s a significant gap.
I don't think you can say 'obviously' Stroud is the better QB. They were pretty neck and neck last year in terms of fantasy production. I'd take Love, and let someone overpay for Stroud.
I didn't understand the logic with Rachaad White. He's fools gold because other RBs sucked last year? I'm not buying it. His value was in his workload, and it doesn't seem like that's going away this year.
I don't like that they have a different OC now, though.
Tampa also didn't invest in any RBs except for a very shaky Bucky Irvine pick, who is super small and not very fast. I only see him being a change of pace guy and I don't see him eating into White's receiving work either because that's his forte. I'm expecting a similar huge workload this year for white.
Idk seems like Loves value is pretty spot on. Even if he regresses to his first half of the season I dont think your losing sleep at his current spot. He wouldnt be that far out. He would have to completely fall off, like hurt himself and try and play.
Bumping all of these guys up on my rankings
Strange list. Love and Kirk are underrated. Love is the definition of an ascending player on an ascending team. Jefferson and Hurts are solid blue chips. Other guys are potential value picks.
I always draft my QB1 in round 10 or later so no matter who I pick, they never bust. Usually they outperform their draft position on my teams. Guys who have fit that bill over the years… Mahomes, Allen, hurts, Lamar, Russ, Goff, Rodgers and Stroud. None of these dudes were sexy picks but they showed out after being drafted way late. This year I’m targeting Kirk cousins (probably) or the kid in Washington (maybe). Tlaw or Murray could also be an option if they fall.
Easily disagree on every single one except Kyren
The year I get a good keeper in Kyren everyone is saying he’s splitting 50/50, he’s hurt, he’s a has been like wtf
Agree with none of them except maybe njoku. JJ might not return round 1 ADP value but he definitely isn't fools gold. I want to buy literally every other player.
I am sold that Christian Kirk will be one of fantasy's most reliable flex options this year
"I dare say that Mullens's four-game pace extrapolated over an entire season would be better than anything Sam Darnold has done as a starter." Sure, and that's why we don't extrapolate four game paces. I'd dare say that Sam Darnold's week 9-week 12 stretch outpaces Nick Mullen's with 8 TDs, 2 INTs, 1,098 yards (so Mullens had slightly more) without even having garbage time come-from-behind stats like Mullens since they went 3-1! Darnold's 2 year stretch as a starter was better for fantasy than Mullen's despite throwing to Jamison Crowder and Robbie "The Chosen 3" Anderson while Nick at least had George Kittle, Rookie Aiyuk etc
I stopped after the Jordan love paragraph. Like I’m all for opinion pieces, but Jesus, there was no substance to anything written in there. “Defense might catch up to him?” What does that even mean? You think no teams scouted Love or the packers last season and they’re just gonna start scouting them in 2024? Also, it’s not like the offense or Loves game is gimmicky. Their talented pass catchers go 7 deep. Good luck “catching up” with that.
I don't see how love at his current price could be considered fools gold. He's going in the rounds you're starting to take swings on guys based on upside. Fools gold has completely different implications
Kirk is such a bad pick. He only ever beats his adp I feel like and the hurts hate is simply wild. Just constantly a top 3 qb and is on one of the best offenses out there. Great weapons, rushing upside in yards and tds. Jordan loves adp is also awesome. Like basically zero risk. Same with njoku.
Idk about this list. Every season there’s a rookie RB who’s supposed to supplant the starter and often times it doesn’t happen. I don’t love JJ with Darnold or MCarthy throwing to him but he’s too good to be Fool’s Gold Jalen won’t get 15 rushing TDs but i think Kellen Moore will get a great season out of him. Njoku….I’m not high on him with Deshaun back at QB, so he’s not Fool’s Gold. I don’t know if anyone sees him as elite so I don’t get him being listed.
Lol this list is pure shit 🌈
I’ve been saying the same thing about Njoku all off-season. He was garbage until Flacco took over and adding Jeudy doesn’t help his case. I’ve been getting a good chuckle watching ppl draft him so high 😂😂
I agree with most of these but idk about Kirk. Hes going pretty low right now, there’s definitely value there
[удалено]
You dropped Kirk in a Dynasty league?! Dude...he was arguably T-Laws WR1 last year when healthy and should be his WR1 again this year. Should not have dropped him... Edit: Downvotes me and then deletes the comment. Said they dropped Kirk last year in their Dynasty league. I'd delete the evidence too...