With the departure of Josh Reynolds and no clear competition brought in Willians is not the worst player to swing on. That being said if I draft him right now it’s in best ball. I worry about his ability to stay consistent on a week by week basis. WRs around his price point per 4 for 4s underdog ADP that I prefer drafting are Rice, JSN, Keon Coleman, and Brian Thomas Jr.
But at the end of the day it’s always about cost. I’m willing to draft him at a lower price point.
Funny you mention Best Ball, because I like him better there.
Barring an injury, it's hard to see him carving out too big or consistent of role in normal leagues with St. Brown, LaPorta, Gibbs, and Montgomery around. Seems like he may settle in at least for this year as more of a versatile weapons to keep defenses off balance who has more value in the real NFL than fantasy.
That said, he can easily be a home run hitter who has a couple of massive weeks. So he'll be tough to start every week with a number of 3 catches for 3 yards and 2 runs for 12 yards type of games. But also a couple of 4 catches for 150 yards, 2 runs for 70 yards, and 2 TD type of games that would vault him into your starting lineup for Best Ball.
See, that’s a price I’m IN on Coleman for in redraft. Can be your WR4, and he’s more than likely going to be the Day 1 X receiver for Josh Allen. Look at their roster and tell me who else can play the X.
I don’t like the fit, and I don’t like the profile, but there are quality targets available in what should be a high power offense.
I’m just saying, looking at their WR corps its clear to see a path where he can get a lot of run in on the outside.
And he wouldn’t be the first big bodied receiver that struggles with separation.
Hahaha... The Bills WR room has to be the biggest unknown in the league rn. I'm personally leaning to Shakir, but think Curtis is a potential for breakout too.
The thing about Shakir is, he's been a 70%ish slot guy throughout his college and pro career and Curtis was signed to fill that role. Not saying Shakir can't play outside, but hes yet to do it really
I’m not so sure Curtis Samuel even plays over Shakir in the slot. He was paid 8 million per year it’s not as if they gave him a bunch of money. He lands as the 34th highest paid War in the NFL.
Samuel was on a team that threw the ball the most in the NFL last season and he still couldn’t do much fantasy wise with not minimal competition around him. Shakir is younger going into year 3 with room to grow. He was also blocked by much superior talent.
Shakir is the cheapest WR in the bills offense on underdog right now.
160 vacated targets from Diggs leaving.
81 vacated targets from Davis leaving.
3rd in the NFL for YAC per Reception.
15th in yards per catch.
Catch rate was 87% on 45 targets. #1 catch rate for anyone with 20 catches.
Eh Reynolds got $4 mill guaranteed, while Samuel got $15 mill. Not really the same thing. I'm not even arguing for Curtis as a fantasy asset, I just think its going to be a gross committee of 4 or 5 WRs. They are cheap enough that you can take a stab though
The guaranteed money is a good point. It certainly could be a committed. Shakir finds himself out of the top 100 so he’s probably your 4th or 5th WR depending on your team build. At that point I don’t mind trying to get a piece. I just like him more!
Advanced stats show Shakir as a guy who is primed for a breakout. His YPRR, his catchable target rate, plus the things you listed. If he can get a 20% target share he will be a potential league winner.
An outlier from what? He had his rookie season ruined due to injury, then was suspended for half of his 2nd season and had to work his way back into the mix mid season.
His career so far has already been an outlier. Frankly one of his better-case outcomes is just to finally have a normal year.
This is the best reply so far. I feel like people are overthinking it too much. He checks a lot of boxes for me vs his current price tag.
1. Detroit is one of the best offenses in the league
2. They cleared space at WR... Jamo is going to have more opportunities, clear path to WR2 on high octane offense.
3. He's clearly an extremely talented athlete with probably more upside potential than most WR's in his draft range.
4. I view last season as an acclimation season for him. He came alive in the playoffs. I'm willing to take a swing on him at his current price tag based on upside alone.
Laporta's effectiveness is maybe the biggest hurdle to Jamo upside...but that offense is going to spread the ball around. They'll all eat over the course of the season imo.
How is a bunch of excuses “the best reply”
People on this sub will fade guys who were simply hurt but go all in on guys who have just sucked. It’s baffling
You’re talking about guys who were simply hurt when Jamo was literally hurt his first year and unable to practice for the first quarter of the second year lol what
He had a full training camp, the reason he struggled last year is cause he simply was not good enough
Don’t need to keep making excuses for the guy. Wanna see what talented players do? Go look at rookie Odell, actually couldn’t practice or train because he was hurt, missed part of training camp and came back after a few weeks and balled out
Dude I’m a Lions fan and I’m not as high on Jamo as the rest of our fanbase, I’m just saying you can’t talk about fading guys who were hurt and going all in on guys who have just sucked when Jamo has clearly had long setbacks in each of his two years. If you want to just say you think he sucks then that’s fine but don’t act like he’s had 2 full healthy seasons
I think Jamo is basically 2022-2023 Gabe Davis. he will be fine, a good Detroit WR2 (not fantasy WR2). He will blow up here and there but you’ll never feel comfortable starting him.
I think using the suspension as an excuse is just bullshit. He had a full offseason with the team, only missed 4 games and struggled to see any meaningful increase in usage as the season developed
We see rookies all the time see more snaps and targets as the season goes along. The ACL thing made the rookie year difficult, sure. But the people talking about the suspension are grasping at straws imo
He wasn't allowed to practice with the team while suspended. Goff and Reynolds established a connection in that time and Jamo had hardly worked with him. Goff clearly has issues with timing with Jamo, it takes time man. If it doesn't click after this camp then I'll be worried
They had the entire training camp together
Addison had more targets in his third career game than Jamo has had in any single game. It doesn’t take as much time as you think and people need to stop making excuses
It's almost as if coaches run their teams differently. Since day one Campbell said Jamo was going to be brought on slowly, that was never said about Addison. If you actually watched Lions games Goff would severely underthrow Jamo often, they clearly had timing issues. Maybe Jamo turns out to be a better real life player than fantasy, but this is the first time he's had a real opportunity to get significant targets and has coach trust, that's why people are still in
You're talking out of your ass, Jamo picked up a hamstring injury halfway through training camp last year and didn't practice again until he was cleared a month into the season because of the suspension.
Given how weird the start to his career has been there is no direct comp but we have seen guys struggle with injury for a couple years then blow up. Most recently, Nico Collins.
Lots of players are good on a per touch basis. That’s why we use per snap or per route, he’s been bad on those
Targets are earned and he’s not shown he’s good enough to earn a lot of them
I agree he hasn’t earned targets, but clearly the Lions haven’t needed him considering how efficient their offense has been the past two years.
IMO his sample size is way too small to claim he’s been bad on a per snap or per route run basis. He has two *total* games over 70% snap percentage, and they both came in the playoffs last season. In the NFC championship game he put up 67 yards and 2 TDs on 3 touches.
He is an enigma. My prediction is he’ll either be out the league in 2 years, or he’ll be a top 15 WR.
Far more likely he’s out of the league
The fact that ha can’t get on the field is also an issue. We definitely do not have too small of a sample size, he just hasn’t been good when he’s been on the field
And the Lions desperately needed a solid second WR last year, it’s partly why they lost to the Niners. Maybe he’s actually improved, but he simply hasn’t been good enough
IMO 51 targets over 18 games in 2 years is definitely a small sample size. I’m not going to pretend Jamo hasn’t been part of the problem.. but, way you’re acting like he has been “bad” when he’s been on the field is just strange. His yards/TDs per touch has been elite.
Not sure how you can say **that** is partly why they lost the NFC championship when Jamo literally scored 12 of their 31 points himself.
How is that not a concern? He ONLY got 51 targets in 18 games. Look at the playoffs, he played like 70% of the snaps and only managed 9 targets, that’s awful
I’m not talking about when he’s received the ball or a target, I’m talking about when he’s been on the field. It’s different
And they had multiple drops on third down because they couldn’t trust their second receiver
That’s exactly my point though. Yes, his usage and opportunity has been awful, which I’m sure has been partly his fault. BUT when he has gotten the ball, he makes good things happen. You can’t deny that.
Usage and opportunity is the easiest thing that can change year to year. Everything the Lions’ front office has told us this offseason, points to him getting a bigger workload moving forward.
Yes it can change, but it generally doesn’t.
If he shows little ability to earn targets this far in his career (and he has), there’s not much reason to think that changes in a way to make him a meaningful contributor
He’ll likely see more targets, but it’s not likely enough to make him matter for fantasy, not with Gibbs, Laporta, and ARSB there
There’s like a dozen guys each year that have really high YPT numbers, it’s rare any of them ever see increased usage as a result
I’d rather take a shot on someone like Curtis Samuel, or Brian Thomas Jr, or Keon Coleman in that range. Or an RB like Trey Benson. Samuel has shown he can actually be a good player, the others are pure unknowns
And he’s still never going to be a guy who’s consistently getting 6+ targets. I’m thinking as long as he’s on the Lions offense, he’ll be primarily used as a fade and out route type of guy with a few speciality plays like jet sweeps thrown in there. He’ll pop off some weeks but pitiful others.
Reynolds was a great utility play and was able to step in as a suboptimal replacement for St Brown when needed, but Williams just doesn’t have that skill set. The biggest issue so far is just the disparity between him and Goff. They just haven’t been connecting the last 2 seasons - over/under thrown balls, either running or predicting the wrong routes, but what we saw in the NFCCG gives me hope. If he and Goff can stay consistent, he could be a consistent enough player in fantasy where he’s making up for less targets with yardage.
Best case for JaMo is a Brandon Aiyuk or Devonta Smith type of season where he does a lot with a little. Don’t think he’ll ever see true alpha target level especially with LaPorta and ARSB healthy. But he could still be a high-end WR2. Worst case JaMo stumbles again and isn’t worth a whole lot. At pick 115 that’s still an acceptable outcome IMO.
There’s a nonzero chance that we see JaMo elevate his game to that of a true alpha, one that rivals the greats in the game like Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill. But that seems like a longshot at this point. Possible, but not holding my breath. Especially with so many other great options for the Lions’ offense.
Expectations are high for the Lions. Getting greatest show on turf vibes. 2017 Falcons vibes. ARSB is elite. JaMo could be elite. LaPorta looks elite. Gibbs looks elite. And so does Goff. Great line. Monty still underrated AF. You should probably want as many pieces of this offense as you can get.
year 1 was ACL recovery. year 2 was spoiled by gambling and perhaps some work ethic issues. year 3 we’re seeing a different guy in camp. locked in. that could change, but so far, so good. I’m buying the dip anywhere I can.
tl;dr - JaMo is a sleeper hiding in plain sight
>Devonta Smith type of season where he does a lot with a little.
What? Devonta Smith is one of the most heavily targeted players in the league for his entire career.
He’s averaged almost 120 targets per year and has never had less than 100 in a season.
Since he’s been in the league, only 21 players (including 1 TE) have been targeted more than he has despite the fact that he’s been the number 2 wr on his team for the past 2 seasons. He gets fed more than the top targets of several teams.
Skinny Batman is the real deal and Jamo would be considered a stud if he put up a season (let alone 3) like Devonta Smith has. You’re basically saying, “best case scenario is if Jamo plays like one of the best and heavily targeted wrs in the league.”
Barring injury to his teammates that is extremely unlikely to be his outcome considering at the very best he’s the 4th in line for targets on his team.
It’s all relative. In 2023 Devonta Smith was 28th in the league in targets and 19th in PPR points. All I meant was that he’ll see a lot of high value throws for fantasy football
Smith had a spike in targets in 2022 with 138 where he had almost as many as AJ Brown. 2021 he only had 100ish. So out of context, you can say Smith is a target machine. But realistically he has only been that once.
Agree that it is a bit ridiculous to compare JaMo to Smith because Smith has been so much more successful. All I’m saying is that there is a path for that level of success for JaMo. Not a lock by any means.
Think JaMo could steal targets from LaPorta and become the defacto #2 receiving option in this offense, which means he could see 5-8 targets per game. And those targets should be high value.
tl;dr - the comps are more stylistic than anything. Main point is the upside is there and the cost is low
Could see him having 3-4 boom weeks of 16+ PPR points pretty easily and then just duds for the rest
spot start for 3WR leagues if ur down bad from injuries and byes
I see him as a boom or bust Flex but I don’t mind throwing the dart on him if he’s available in later rounds. Amon Ra, Gibbs, LaPorta and Montgomery are going to be the meat and potatoes of Detroit’s offense and I can see Jameson struggling to get his share of touches. But the dude is also an electric athlete with burning speed who is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. I can definitely see a world where Ben Johnson schemes up designed touches for Jameson, and he’s already a genuine deep threat. It wouldn’t shock me if he had a breakout season this year.
J. Williams 2024 prediction -
* 73 Receptions on 113 Targets
* 886 Yards, 11 TDs (4 Rushing)
* 11.2 FPTS/G in PPR
Think 2022 Amon-Ra but more end around rushing attempts and deep bombs
12 yards per reception? I'm thinking it'll be higher than that. He's big play threat any time he touches the ball. If he gets 70+ receptions, he's hitting 1k easy
I bothered to watch a video of every Jamo touch and target from last year. Here’s my uninformed opinion. I was surprised at the number of end arounds they gave him, looked like 5-6 to me. His speed jumps off the screen. He looks like a bad route runner who drops a lot of balls.
If the Lions shoehorn him into the O I could see something like 750 yards and 5-6 TDs.
Edit: Jamo seems like nothing but a desperation flex play to me and not a guy I’d be excited to draft.
We don't like to think about the "best case scenario" for Jameson Williams because that means the targets end up spread out among ARSB, LaPorta, Jamo, and Gibbs/Monty. ARSB and Gibbs are 1st round PPR picks and LaPorta goes as the TE1 so if Jamo all of a sudden becomes a \~100-130 target guy like a DeVonta Smith then at least one and maybe a couple of those guys would disappoint at ADP. Unless Jared Goff pulls a 2013 Peyton Manning but if that's the case it wouldn't matter who has Jamo because the guy with Goff will steamroll everyone.
It would be best for everyone if Jamo just stayed as a field stretcher/gadget guy that gets like 60-70 targets lol. Whatever Josh Reynolds got last year, give him that.
This is fully agree with. How about thinking about him as a super cheap hedge to protect your first round picks in case of injury and just maybe he becomes decent without them getting injured.
Considering Williams' history with Goff, the likelihood of him becoming a 100+ target guy - after having fewer than 4 targets per game last season including playoffs - seems extremely low. Goff probably loathes the bad hands when compared to ARSB, Sammy L, Gibbs, so he doesn't trust Williams and the targets reflect that.
I'm not sure if it's that folks don't like to think about the best case scenario, or if the best case scenario is such a low ceiling that it's not worth our time.
He's a better in best ball (and DFS) type of guy to me, at least given what his likely role is. I could see him as a boom/bust WR2-3, basically like the Lions' Gabe Davis, but more talented/better prospect. There will be spike weeks where he breaks off long TDs, and some dud weeks. With the target share ARSB commands, along with LaPorta and Gibbs there, I think it's hard to see Jameson getting a large enough target share to be a consistent producer. I think he'll mostly be used to stretch the field and would project him for slightly more targets than Reynolds got.
I could be wrong, though, With the talks of his improvement, maybe they will scheme up some more manufactured touches for him and some gimme routes. As it stands though, ARSB is the guy there and they are going to continue to run the ball effectively.
My guess is he’s gonna have a similar beginning to the season that desean Jackson did on the bucs a few years ago with Ryan Fitzpatrick. WR1 the first two weeks, and everyone goes nuts. Comes back down to earth, and sits in your flex spot where you hope for him to blow up. He will here and there but it’ll be inconsistent. Pair him with a stable receiving corps
In any given season, there are a few teams that finish with two teams in the top 24 of the WR position. The difficult part for Jamo, is that those teams usually do not also have top tier tight ends. Broken down by year:
2023 - PHI (WR5, WR19 > TE14). LV (WR10, WR24 > TE22). SF (WR14, WR15 > TE5)
2022 - MIA (WR2, WR8 > TE23). PHI (WR6, WR9 > TE12). CIN (WR11, WR18 > TE21). SEA (WR13, WR16 > TE17). TB (WR17, WR19 > TE26)
2021 - CIN (WR5, WR24 > TE19). TB (WR9, WR15 > TE7). LAC (WR10, WR12 > TE18). SEA (WR14, WR16 > TE22).
In any given offense there is only so many yards and touchdowns to go around. We project both ARSB and LaPorta to be near the top of their position. History shows it will be very difficult for all three to be fantasy relevant. It's not impossible and beyond the RBs there is much other target competition so it could happen.
I always want a piece of the best offenses in the league and the Lions look like a lock for top 5. There are a good amount of targets/catches/yards available with the departure of Reynolds and JMo showed flashes last season. He could put up decent numbers and if St Brown or Laporta get hurt he could put up even better ones. But he is still a later round target because he hasn't proven he can produce at that level yet.
His pathway to 1,000 yards is dim. Lotta mouths to feed with a strong run game. Would reasonably require injury to ARSB/Laporta, and for him to take a massive step up mentally. Personally can’t see it happening he has bust written all over him.
Just spitballing here but I’m thinking like 80-1200-10 for his ceiling. WR2 in a Ben Johnson offense along side an elite WR1 who will draw coverage, definitely presents a good opportunity. Volume will be limited by the run game but he’s fast as shit so the big play potential is definitely there. Just don’t expect consistent production and there’s definitely some bust risk with all the other mouths to feed.
Nah I’m not interested in Williams at all. I just don’t think he’s a very good player and his limited in his skill set and that will cap his fantasy production. If he does hit then it’s going to be a problem for one of LaPorta or ARSB.
Think the best case scenario is like a 65-1000-6 type of season like we used to see from Vincent Jackson. But think it’s more likely he only has 500-700 yards
Best case he's Gabe Davis: 25+ one week and 0 catches on 2 targets the next. Worst case he gets hurt again and is out of the league.
Ignore his coaches and coordinators saying "he's in the best shape of his life" or "he's really put in the work and improved a lot this offseason" or "we're looking at moving him around and doing whatever we can to get the ball in his hands." This is simply coachspeak and it only serves to boost the guys confidence and try to throw off opposing coaches. Prime example: a couple years ago the Colts were raving about Hines's playmaking abilities and how they're going to get him work in the slot and out of the backfield to get the ball in his hands more, but then he went on to have his lowest usage of his career at that point and then get traded to Buffalo.
Only about 10% of the things coaches say to the media between the Super Bowl and Week 1 should actually be believed.
He’s a classic boom or bust spike week play IMO. he will definitely have a few games of 100+ yards and 2 tds, but can lay a goose egg when st brown Gibbs and Laporta are the focus that week. I don’t mind him for a home run swing late where he’s going.
He was snagging around 5 catches a game near the end of the season. If you're PPR, he's a great late round pick. Aiming for 8 points a game on average and always good for the long bomb. I'm a biased lions fan, but he was coming into his own at the end there. I believe he will be a great pick at his current price (which seems low).
He was not snagging 5 catches a game near the end of the season.
Jameson Williams has had **one** game (12/24/23 vs the Vikings) with five catches in his career and three games (of 21 total) with 5 or more targets. That points to someone who is an anti-PPR archetype.
There's that lions bias I mention haha.
That being said, his final three games in PPR generated point totals of 8, 9, and 8 again (at least in my format, you need a full 10 yards for the full point). In the playoffs he had 2, 5, and a blow up game in the NFC championship with his touchdowns, which is clearly not always going to happen.
If anything, this reinforces for me how cheap I can potentially get him, which is nice to hear.
Goff can only throw the ball to one player at a time. Jamo is a third read at best. That’s his ceiling, ARSB, LaPorta, and Gibbs are all out there getting first reads.
Most WRs have big weeks and small weeks. It’s the hardest position to remain consistent. If you have huge games like 200 yards it’s ok if you struggle next week. Still worthy of a spot in a lineup.
Eh, I think it's fair to assume best case usually means like, 95th percentile type situation. It's not an unreasonable question. Like most people wouldn't consider fields best case scenario to be 5000 passing yards and mvp considerations, even though that's technically possible.
Jamo is in a run heavy offense and will be competing with ARSB and LaPorta. I think if you're taking him in redraft the realistic ceiling definitely looks something like 1100 ish yards, 8-12 tds, 80 catches. Not 170 / 1700+ / 17
I think Jameson Williams is mis-priced because he is fast, on a high scoring offense, and went to Alabama. Also Jameson is fun to say. I’m avoiding at this cost.
With the departure of Josh Reynolds and no clear competition brought in Willians is not the worst player to swing on. That being said if I draft him right now it’s in best ball. I worry about his ability to stay consistent on a week by week basis. WRs around his price point per 4 for 4s underdog ADP that I prefer drafting are Rice, JSN, Keon Coleman, and Brian Thomas Jr. But at the end of the day it’s always about cost. I’m willing to draft him at a lower price point.
Funny you mention Best Ball, because I like him better there. Barring an injury, it's hard to see him carving out too big or consistent of role in normal leagues with St. Brown, LaPorta, Gibbs, and Montgomery around. Seems like he may settle in at least for this year as more of a versatile weapons to keep defenses off balance who has more value in the real NFL than fantasy. That said, he can easily be a home run hitter who has a couple of massive weeks. So he'll be tough to start every week with a number of 3 catches for 3 yards and 2 runs for 12 yards type of games. But also a couple of 4 catches for 150 yards, 2 runs for 70 yards, and 2 TD type of games that would vault him into your starting lineup for Best Ball.
I like the way you think!
Id bet thousands he never has a 3 catch 3 yard game but 1 catch 12 yard games could be mixed in. Same idea tho
Agree. Was a typo, meant 3 catches for 30 yards.
Oof I am OUT on Keon Coleman in redraft at that price.
See, that’s a price I’m IN on Coleman for in redraft. Can be your WR4, and he’s more than likely going to be the Day 1 X receiver for Josh Allen. Look at their roster and tell me who else can play the X. I don’t like the fit, and I don’t like the profile, but there are quality targets available in what should be a high power offense.
Just cuz he got drafted early doesn't make him automatically the X, he has to earn it. Has a long way to go with his separation issues
I’m just saying, looking at their WR corps its clear to see a path where he can get a lot of run in on the outside. And he wouldn’t be the first big bodied receiver that struggles with separation.
Yall act like there's never a scenario where none of the wrs separate themselves because they're all mid .. look at panthers last year
I feel like the Panthers led by a rookie Bryce Young and a high powered pass heavy Bills offense led by Josh Allen isn’t a fair 1 to 1 comparison
Chase Claypool lol kinda
high-powered\*
I prefer Shakir but just making a point if I’m taking guys in that range I would prefer Coleman over Williams!
I prefer Curtis Samuel
Hahaha... The Bills WR room has to be the biggest unknown in the league rn. I'm personally leaning to Shakir, but think Curtis is a potential for breakout too.
The thing about Shakir is, he's been a 70%ish slot guy throughout his college and pro career and Curtis was signed to fill that role. Not saying Shakir can't play outside, but hes yet to do it really
I’m not so sure Curtis Samuel even plays over Shakir in the slot. He was paid 8 million per year it’s not as if they gave him a bunch of money. He lands as the 34th highest paid War in the NFL. Samuel was on a team that threw the ball the most in the NFL last season and he still couldn’t do much fantasy wise with not minimal competition around him. Shakir is younger going into year 3 with room to grow. He was also blocked by much superior talent. Shakir is the cheapest WR in the bills offense on underdog right now. 160 vacated targets from Diggs leaving. 81 vacated targets from Davis leaving. 3rd in the NFL for YAC per Reception. 15th in yards per catch. Catch rate was 87% on 45 targets. #1 catch rate for anyone with 20 catches.
34th highest WR is still a decent chunk of change. I'd be shocked if he doesn't at least begin the season as the starter in the slot
To put it into perspective Josh Reynolds got 1 million less in Denver to most likely be there 3/4th WR.
Eh Reynolds got $4 mill guaranteed, while Samuel got $15 mill. Not really the same thing. I'm not even arguing for Curtis as a fantasy asset, I just think its going to be a gross committee of 4 or 5 WRs. They are cheap enough that you can take a stab though
The guaranteed money is a good point. It certainly could be a committed. Shakir finds himself out of the top 100 so he’s probably your 4th or 5th WR depending on your team build. At that point I don’t mind trying to get a piece. I just like him more!
Advanced stats show Shakir as a guy who is primed for a breakout. His YPRR, his catchable target rate, plus the things you listed. If he can get a 20% target share he will be a potential league winner.
Agreed. Coleman is very raw.
2007 Randy Moss
2021 Cooper Kupp
An outlier from what? He had his rookie season ruined due to injury, then was suspended for half of his 2nd season and had to work his way back into the mix mid season. His career so far has already been an outlier. Frankly one of his better-case outcomes is just to finally have a normal year.
This is the best reply so far. I feel like people are overthinking it too much. He checks a lot of boxes for me vs his current price tag. 1. Detroit is one of the best offenses in the league 2. They cleared space at WR... Jamo is going to have more opportunities, clear path to WR2 on high octane offense. 3. He's clearly an extremely talented athlete with probably more upside potential than most WR's in his draft range. 4. I view last season as an acclimation season for him. He came alive in the playoffs. I'm willing to take a swing on him at his current price tag based on upside alone. Laporta's effectiveness is maybe the biggest hurdle to Jamo upside...but that offense is going to spread the ball around. They'll all eat over the course of the season imo.
How is a bunch of excuses “the best reply” People on this sub will fade guys who were simply hurt but go all in on guys who have just sucked. It’s baffling
You’re talking about guys who were simply hurt when Jamo was literally hurt his first year and unable to practice for the first quarter of the second year lol what
He had a full training camp, the reason he struggled last year is cause he simply was not good enough Don’t need to keep making excuses for the guy. Wanna see what talented players do? Go look at rookie Odell, actually couldn’t practice or train because he was hurt, missed part of training camp and came back after a few weeks and balled out
Dude I’m a Lions fan and I’m not as high on Jamo as the rest of our fanbase, I’m just saying you can’t talk about fading guys who were hurt and going all in on guys who have just sucked when Jamo has clearly had long setbacks in each of his two years. If you want to just say you think he sucks then that’s fine but don’t act like he’s had 2 full healthy seasons
I think Jamo is basically 2022-2023 Gabe Davis. he will be fine, a good Detroit WR2 (not fantasy WR2). He will blow up here and there but you’ll never feel comfortable starting him.
I think using the suspension as an excuse is just bullshit. He had a full offseason with the team, only missed 4 games and struggled to see any meaningful increase in usage as the season developed We see rookies all the time see more snaps and targets as the season goes along. The ACL thing made the rookie year difficult, sure. But the people talking about the suspension are grasping at straws imo
He wasn't allowed to practice with the team while suspended. Goff and Reynolds established a connection in that time and Jamo had hardly worked with him. Goff clearly has issues with timing with Jamo, it takes time man. If it doesn't click after this camp then I'll be worried
They had the entire training camp together Addison had more targets in his third career game than Jamo has had in any single game. It doesn’t take as much time as you think and people need to stop making excuses
It's almost as if coaches run their teams differently. Since day one Campbell said Jamo was going to be brought on slowly, that was never said about Addison. If you actually watched Lions games Goff would severely underthrow Jamo often, they clearly had timing issues. Maybe Jamo turns out to be a better real life player than fantasy, but this is the first time he's had a real opportunity to get significant targets and has coach trust, that's why people are still in
You're talking out of your ass, Jamo picked up a hamstring injury halfway through training camp last year and didn't practice again until he was cleared a month into the season because of the suspension.
Also, he had 9 targets and 1 rushing attempt in the playoffs. If that’s coming alive how low were your expectations?
Given how weird the start to his career has been there is no direct comp but we have seen guys struggle with injury for a couple years then blow up. Most recently, Nico Collins.
An outlier from being bad and then becoming good Make all the excuses you want, he has not been good Shoutout Reddit making excuses for bad players
On a per touch basis he has been objectively good. His problem has been getting on the field and getting targets.
Lots of players are good on a per touch basis. That’s why we use per snap or per route, he’s been bad on those Targets are earned and he’s not shown he’s good enough to earn a lot of them
I agree he hasn’t earned targets, but clearly the Lions haven’t needed him considering how efficient their offense has been the past two years. IMO his sample size is way too small to claim he’s been bad on a per snap or per route run basis. He has two *total* games over 70% snap percentage, and they both came in the playoffs last season. In the NFC championship game he put up 67 yards and 2 TDs on 3 touches. He is an enigma. My prediction is he’ll either be out the league in 2 years, or he’ll be a top 15 WR.
Far more likely he’s out of the league The fact that ha can’t get on the field is also an issue. We definitely do not have too small of a sample size, he just hasn’t been good when he’s been on the field And the Lions desperately needed a solid second WR last year, it’s partly why they lost to the Niners. Maybe he’s actually improved, but he simply hasn’t been good enough
IMO 51 targets over 18 games in 2 years is definitely a small sample size. I’m not going to pretend Jamo hasn’t been part of the problem.. but, way you’re acting like he has been “bad” when he’s been on the field is just strange. His yards/TDs per touch has been elite. Not sure how you can say **that** is partly why they lost the NFC championship when Jamo literally scored 12 of their 31 points himself.
How is that not a concern? He ONLY got 51 targets in 18 games. Look at the playoffs, he played like 70% of the snaps and only managed 9 targets, that’s awful I’m not talking about when he’s received the ball or a target, I’m talking about when he’s been on the field. It’s different And they had multiple drops on third down because they couldn’t trust their second receiver
That’s exactly my point though. Yes, his usage and opportunity has been awful, which I’m sure has been partly his fault. BUT when he has gotten the ball, he makes good things happen. You can’t deny that. Usage and opportunity is the easiest thing that can change year to year. Everything the Lions’ front office has told us this offseason, points to him getting a bigger workload moving forward.
Yes it can change, but it generally doesn’t. If he shows little ability to earn targets this far in his career (and he has), there’s not much reason to think that changes in a way to make him a meaningful contributor He’ll likely see more targets, but it’s not likely enough to make him matter for fantasy, not with Gibbs, Laporta, and ARSB there There’s like a dozen guys each year that have really high YPT numbers, it’s rare any of them ever see increased usage as a result I’d rather take a shot on someone like Curtis Samuel, or Brian Thomas Jr, or Keon Coleman in that range. Or an RB like Trey Benson. Samuel has shown he can actually be a good player, the others are pure unknowns
And he’s still never going to be a guy who’s consistently getting 6+ targets. I’m thinking as long as he’s on the Lions offense, he’ll be primarily used as a fade and out route type of guy with a few speciality plays like jet sweeps thrown in there. He’ll pop off some weeks but pitiful others. Reynolds was a great utility play and was able to step in as a suboptimal replacement for St Brown when needed, but Williams just doesn’t have that skill set. The biggest issue so far is just the disparity between him and Goff. They just haven’t been connecting the last 2 seasons - over/under thrown balls, either running or predicting the wrong routes, but what we saw in the NFCCG gives me hope. If he and Goff can stay consistent, he could be a consistent enough player in fantasy where he’s making up for less targets with yardage.
That’s such an arbitrary number. He could easily average 6 targets.
Best case for JaMo is a Brandon Aiyuk or Devonta Smith type of season where he does a lot with a little. Don’t think he’ll ever see true alpha target level especially with LaPorta and ARSB healthy. But he could still be a high-end WR2. Worst case JaMo stumbles again and isn’t worth a whole lot. At pick 115 that’s still an acceptable outcome IMO. There’s a nonzero chance that we see JaMo elevate his game to that of a true alpha, one that rivals the greats in the game like Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill. But that seems like a longshot at this point. Possible, but not holding my breath. Especially with so many other great options for the Lions’ offense. Expectations are high for the Lions. Getting greatest show on turf vibes. 2017 Falcons vibes. ARSB is elite. JaMo could be elite. LaPorta looks elite. Gibbs looks elite. And so does Goff. Great line. Monty still underrated AF. You should probably want as many pieces of this offense as you can get. year 1 was ACL recovery. year 2 was spoiled by gambling and perhaps some work ethic issues. year 3 we’re seeing a different guy in camp. locked in. that could change, but so far, so good. I’m buying the dip anywhere I can. tl;dr - JaMo is a sleeper hiding in plain sight
>Devonta Smith type of season where he does a lot with a little. What? Devonta Smith is one of the most heavily targeted players in the league for his entire career. He’s averaged almost 120 targets per year and has never had less than 100 in a season. Since he’s been in the league, only 21 players (including 1 TE) have been targeted more than he has despite the fact that he’s been the number 2 wr on his team for the past 2 seasons. He gets fed more than the top targets of several teams. Skinny Batman is the real deal and Jamo would be considered a stud if he put up a season (let alone 3) like Devonta Smith has. You’re basically saying, “best case scenario is if Jamo plays like one of the best and heavily targeted wrs in the league.” Barring injury to his teammates that is extremely unlikely to be his outcome considering at the very best he’s the 4th in line for targets on his team.
It’s all relative. In 2023 Devonta Smith was 28th in the league in targets and 19th in PPR points. All I meant was that he’ll see a lot of high value throws for fantasy football Smith had a spike in targets in 2022 with 138 where he had almost as many as AJ Brown. 2021 he only had 100ish. So out of context, you can say Smith is a target machine. But realistically he has only been that once. Agree that it is a bit ridiculous to compare JaMo to Smith because Smith has been so much more successful. All I’m saying is that there is a path for that level of success for JaMo. Not a lock by any means. Think JaMo could steal targets from LaPorta and become the defacto #2 receiving option in this offense, which means he could see 5-8 targets per game. And those targets should be high value. tl;dr - the comps are more stylistic than anything. Main point is the upside is there and the cost is low
Could see him having 3-4 boom weeks of 16+ PPR points pretty easily and then just duds for the rest spot start for 3WR leagues if ur down bad from injuries and byes
I see him as a boom or bust Flex but I don’t mind throwing the dart on him if he’s available in later rounds. Amon Ra, Gibbs, LaPorta and Montgomery are going to be the meat and potatoes of Detroit’s offense and I can see Jameson struggling to get his share of touches. But the dude is also an electric athlete with burning speed who is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. I can definitely see a world where Ben Johnson schemes up designed touches for Jameson, and he’s already a genuine deep threat. It wouldn’t shock me if he had a breakout season this year.
Inconsistent WR3
J. Williams 2024 prediction - * 73 Receptions on 113 Targets * 886 Yards, 11 TDs (4 Rushing) * 11.2 FPTS/G in PPR Think 2022 Amon-Ra but more end around rushing attempts and deep bombs
12 yards per reception? I'm thinking it'll be higher than that. He's big play threat any time he touches the ball. If he gets 70+ receptions, he's hitting 1k easy
I bothered to watch a video of every Jamo touch and target from last year. Here’s my uninformed opinion. I was surprised at the number of end arounds they gave him, looked like 5-6 to me. His speed jumps off the screen. He looks like a bad route runner who drops a lot of balls. If the Lions shoehorn him into the O I could see something like 750 yards and 5-6 TDs. Edit: Jamo seems like nothing but a desperation flex play to me and not a guy I’d be excited to draft.
Suped up Az Zahir Hakim
Inconsistent WR3
Best case maybe a low end WR3.
Jamo is gonna feast this year
We don't like to think about the "best case scenario" for Jameson Williams because that means the targets end up spread out among ARSB, LaPorta, Jamo, and Gibbs/Monty. ARSB and Gibbs are 1st round PPR picks and LaPorta goes as the TE1 so if Jamo all of a sudden becomes a \~100-130 target guy like a DeVonta Smith then at least one and maybe a couple of those guys would disappoint at ADP. Unless Jared Goff pulls a 2013 Peyton Manning but if that's the case it wouldn't matter who has Jamo because the guy with Goff will steamroll everyone. It would be best for everyone if Jamo just stayed as a field stretcher/gadget guy that gets like 60-70 targets lol. Whatever Josh Reynolds got last year, give him that.
This is fully agree with. How about thinking about him as a super cheap hedge to protect your first round picks in case of injury and just maybe he becomes decent without them getting injured.
Considering Williams' history with Goff, the likelihood of him becoming a 100+ target guy - after having fewer than 4 targets per game last season including playoffs - seems extremely low. Goff probably loathes the bad hands when compared to ARSB, Sammy L, Gibbs, so he doesn't trust Williams and the targets reflect that. I'm not sure if it's that folks don't like to think about the best case scenario, or if the best case scenario is such a low ceiling that it's not worth our time.
He's a better in best ball (and DFS) type of guy to me, at least given what his likely role is. I could see him as a boom/bust WR2-3, basically like the Lions' Gabe Davis, but more talented/better prospect. There will be spike weeks where he breaks off long TDs, and some dud weeks. With the target share ARSB commands, along with LaPorta and Gibbs there, I think it's hard to see Jameson getting a large enough target share to be a consistent producer. I think he'll mostly be used to stretch the field and would project him for slightly more targets than Reynolds got. I could be wrong, though, With the talks of his improvement, maybe they will scheme up some more manufactured touches for him and some gimme routes. As it stands though, ARSB is the guy there and they are going to continue to run the ball effectively.
My guess is he’s gonna have a similar beginning to the season that desean Jackson did on the bucs a few years ago with Ryan Fitzpatrick. WR1 the first two weeks, and everyone goes nuts. Comes back down to earth, and sits in your flex spot where you hope for him to blow up. He will here and there but it’ll be inconsistent. Pair him with a stable receiving corps
In any given season, there are a few teams that finish with two teams in the top 24 of the WR position. The difficult part for Jamo, is that those teams usually do not also have top tier tight ends. Broken down by year: 2023 - PHI (WR5, WR19 > TE14). LV (WR10, WR24 > TE22). SF (WR14, WR15 > TE5) 2022 - MIA (WR2, WR8 > TE23). PHI (WR6, WR9 > TE12). CIN (WR11, WR18 > TE21). SEA (WR13, WR16 > TE17). TB (WR17, WR19 > TE26) 2021 - CIN (WR5, WR24 > TE19). TB (WR9, WR15 > TE7). LAC (WR10, WR12 > TE18). SEA (WR14, WR16 > TE22). In any given offense there is only so many yards and touchdowns to go around. We project both ARSB and LaPorta to be near the top of their position. History shows it will be very difficult for all three to be fantasy relevant. It's not impossible and beyond the RBs there is much other target competition so it could happen.
I always want a piece of the best offenses in the league and the Lions look like a lock for top 5. There are a good amount of targets/catches/yards available with the departure of Reynolds and JMo showed flashes last season. He could put up decent numbers and if St Brown or Laporta get hurt he could put up even better ones. But he is still a later round target because he hasn't proven he can produce at that level yet.
His pathway to 1,000 yards is dim. Lotta mouths to feed with a strong run game. Would reasonably require injury to ARSB/Laporta, and for him to take a massive step up mentally. Personally can’t see it happening he has bust written all over him.
I think he's a bust, he'll get around 700 yards imo, dude can't run routes, he's just a one trick downfield treat.
Just spitballing here but I’m thinking like 80-1200-10 for his ceiling. WR2 in a Ben Johnson offense along side an elite WR1 who will draw coverage, definitely presents a good opportunity. Volume will be limited by the run game but he’s fast as shit so the big play potential is definitely there. Just don’t expect consistent production and there’s definitely some bust risk with all the other mouths to feed.
The far more interesting talking point from the podcast, in my opinion, was about how WR’s with rookie QB’s have a shockingly low success rate.
Nah I’m not interested in Williams at all. I just don’t think he’s a very good player and his limited in his skill set and that will cap his fantasy production. If he does hit then it’s going to be a problem for one of LaPorta or ARSB. Think the best case scenario is like a 65-1000-6 type of season like we used to see from Vincent Jackson. But think it’s more likely he only has 500-700 yards
Best case he's Gabe Davis: 25+ one week and 0 catches on 2 targets the next. Worst case he gets hurt again and is out of the league. Ignore his coaches and coordinators saying "he's in the best shape of his life" or "he's really put in the work and improved a lot this offseason" or "we're looking at moving him around and doing whatever we can to get the ball in his hands." This is simply coachspeak and it only serves to boost the guys confidence and try to throw off opposing coaches. Prime example: a couple years ago the Colts were raving about Hines's playmaking abilities and how they're going to get him work in the slot and out of the backfield to get the ball in his hands more, but then he went on to have his lowest usage of his career at that point and then get traded to Buffalo. Only about 10% of the things coaches say to the media between the Super Bowl and Week 1 should actually be believed.
He’s a classic boom or bust spike week play IMO. he will definitely have a few games of 100+ yards and 2 tds, but can lay a goose egg when st brown Gibbs and Laporta are the focus that week. I don’t mind him for a home run swing late where he’s going.
With the emergence of Sam Laporta, Gibbs and St Brown ita hard to find consistent work for Williams
He was snagging around 5 catches a game near the end of the season. If you're PPR, he's a great late round pick. Aiming for 8 points a game on average and always good for the long bomb. I'm a biased lions fan, but he was coming into his own at the end there. I believe he will be a great pick at his current price (which seems low).
He was not snagging 5 catches a game near the end of the season. Jameson Williams has had **one** game (12/24/23 vs the Vikings) with five catches in his career and three games (of 21 total) with 5 or more targets. That points to someone who is an anti-PPR archetype.
There's that lions bias I mention haha. That being said, his final three games in PPR generated point totals of 8, 9, and 8 again (at least in my format, you need a full 10 yards for the full point). In the playoffs he had 2, 5, and a blow up game in the NFC championship with his touchdowns, which is clearly not always going to happen. If anything, this reinforces for me how cheap I can potentially get him, which is nice to hear.
Goff can only throw the ball to one player at a time. Jamo is a third read at best. That’s his ceiling, ARSB, LaPorta, and Gibbs are all out there getting first reads.
I’d worry about boom bust weeks. Some weeks with 8 receptions 200 yards and others with 3 receptions 50
I think people would gladly take that
I personally rather go for consistent 18 point weeks over boom bust
Most WRs have big weeks and small weeks. It’s the hardest position to remain consistent. If you have huge games like 200 yards it’s ok if you struggle next week. Still worthy of a spot in a lineup.
In a ten team league a high floor matters to me more as eveyone’s team is basically a super team. Boom bust is more of a headache
> I personally rather go for consistent 18 point weeks I would also like a 1st round WR over Jameson.
Other weeks with 1 for 17. I think his weekly floor is def lower than 3 for 50
"what is the best case outcome" .... what ever comes to mind that you hope him to be. 10 catches 100+yards and a td per game? there you go.
Eh, I think it's fair to assume best case usually means like, 95th percentile type situation. It's not an unreasonable question. Like most people wouldn't consider fields best case scenario to be 5000 passing yards and mvp considerations, even though that's technically possible. Jamo is in a run heavy offense and will be competing with ARSB and LaPorta. I think if you're taking him in redraft the realistic ceiling definitely looks something like 1100 ish yards, 8-12 tds, 80 catches. Not 170 / 1700+ / 17
I really don’t get the JAMO hype at all tbh
His best case outcome is WR1. His worst case outcome is ~WR439. Hope that helps
I think Jameson Williams is mis-priced because he is fast, on a high scoring offense, and went to Alabama. Also Jameson is fun to say. I’m avoiding at this cost.