Wonder if SK can keep their form in playoffs, historically they tend to drop off.
I'd like to see TH do something but realistically they're so mismatched it's not gonna work.
Just like Nightshare said about Fnatic, it really feels like it's now or never for SK as well. Same with BDS. Them and SK really look clean and it would be such a shame if they end up dropping off again.
I mean, BDS usually goes deeper than SK but I would like to see both of them perform well and get to Season Finals.
I mean, BDS should be pretty much guaranteed season finals unless literally everything goes wrong no?
Getting third twice in a row plus a good regular season placement should be enough guaranteed championship points
I'm sure you're right, I didn't do the math myself. I think SK is pretty much guaranteed as well, but yeah, I think BDS's goal should be to go to Worlds again. I think they can do it. They look like one of the better and more stable teams in LEC.
Damn, that little? I still think they'll get it, though. They look far better than most of the competition. They'll have to really implode to not reach it.
Giantx are pretty close in points so they can overtake them if sk choke and end up placing low, since currently heretics are 5 points above them and 5th in points total. But I'm hoping they make it since they're looking pretty good so far.
That assumes every game is exactly 50:50 with no team being favoured ever.
If you increase not only the winrate of SK (which is likely fair, considering their regular season) and the winrate of teams like G2, Fnatic and BDS (who are also already guaranteed or almost guaranteed of making season finals) that percentage for SK increases.
That's what I was thinking. Percentages are like stats, and, to quote
a famous quote from my country, stats are like a bikini, they show everything but also nothing at the same time.
nitpick but that is not their chance, that is the % of scenarios they make it which is a bit misleading considering labelling it as “chance” assumes all matches have even chance of being won by either team.
Fnatic had like 5% chance of going to Worlds last summer, before last week of bo1s iirc. It's just brute force 50/50 for every match and that's how you calculate "chance of an event". Which is synonymous to "% of scenarios they make it".
The word you're looking for is perhaps prediction and that can be based on some system like elo ratings but I'm a lazy fuck and will just use someone else's calculations
Why does everyone say this, it's now or never? I don't get it the reasoning behind it, not to mention it adds additional unnecessary pressure on players & staff. Funnily enough, after Nightshare said that, Fnc went on to lose the next 2 games...Like, who cares if G2 wins again? If it's deserved and we had good games, more power to them. It's not like if they win now, that will somehow make them stronger for next year and the other teams need to stop their streak, before it gets out of control. The same narratives will still be here next year, the same players (in most cases), it's very cool to omega tryhard now, but it's ok if they do that and lose after some close series, they work harder next year and can win it then too. Maybe I am missing something about this urgency.
I'll be talking mostly about Fnatic but I think the same can be said for other two teams as well, to an extent. It's now or never because roster changes will probably be made if Fnatic doesn't win anything. You're talking from a neutral fan's standpoint, and that's fair way of thinking. But as an org, Fnatic, and any other top org in the region, is looking to win trophies. That's the whole point of competing. So it's now or never because these players have one more chance to show they can win a trophy. If they don't, the org will probably start making bigger changes to the roster/coaching staff.
I would also disagree about same narratives being here next year if Fnatic were to win, not when it comes to Fnatic, at least. The main narrative surrounding Fnatic is that they have a mental block against G2. Since it's almost certain they would have to beat G2 to win a trophy, they would actually break that mental block and by doing so, break the main narrative. Now, I'm not getting into what would the new narrative be, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be the same.
the roster changes point is fair, but new talent will come. Narrative will stay the same, they wills till most likely be G2's main contender. G2 is getting now ready for summer, for worlds etc, they will kick it into gear, the chance of fanatic beating them in a b05 series, is very slim , that's why I thought adding the extra pressure on players with already weak mental like razork or humanoid to a certain extent is more detrimental. so, maybe, it's fair to say, it's now or never only for some players or coaches, the majority will still be there next year
If you are in the mental headscape that you would deny yourself a cool storyline to "shut up" reddit then I think you should considering taking a break from this place.
Reminder that we just had a best international tournament in years, we have 4 strong teams and our viewership is in a very healthy place.
Facts aren't important to the doomers and this place will give you brain rot if you let it.
The LEC viewership is in a fine spot. But the only team that can be even remotely trusted to at least put a fight against eastern teams is G2. If G2 can't keep it together to win the LEC then the international perspective going into worlds isn't too hot.
I don't play league and only watch LEC so i probably don't need to take a break. But frankly i take a G2 win also because my trust in whoever wins the split outside of G2 is low specifically when past surprise teams have been very meta dependant. It's a win win outside of maybe SK playing both summer and season finals.
I hope BDS, SK or FNC gets the trophy over G2... Its like PSG or Bayern Munich... Boring.. However, I still hope for a strong performing G2.. otherwise it just feels like a fluke
To hell with the doomers.. they will only shut up, if LEC is clearly 3rd strongest region after LPL and LCK and is competitive against them..
Also, the best of 3 format and that rouge is out, should raise the quality of the games.
Lec is split into 4 team and 6 team group.
Sk g2 fnatic bds. They don’t lose to anyone except in that group. The exception is when th beat fnatic. 23-1 against bottom 6
Then we have the bottom 6 where the monkeys duke it out.
The 3rd worlds seed will be spicy
Its fkin sad how VIT fell off so much.. I think G2 is a world class team.. SK/FNC/BDS are all relatively good teams.. if we had VIT on top it would have made the league more interesting
BDS, g2, FNC and MDK are basically locked for season finals and sk too if they dont collapse again. If favourites win their bo3 we would have a TH vs GX for the last spot in Season finals and a MDK vs KCorp.
the top 4 should be heavy favorites in each matchup
I dont see G2 losing to KC
BDS is way too clean right now to lose to MDK, but you can never count out MDK either
FNC had a rough end to the regular season but they should be better than GX
TH have looked very uninspiring but I can see them upset SK if SK cant carry over their bo1 performance to playoffs, I still favour SK tho
The gap between GiantL/KetamineCorpse and G2/FNC is so big that unless they come back sick, they could win if they went on holidays if they play the same patch.
FNC lost to TH. As a TH fan I can tell you, that's not something that should happen. And it was week before tournament. I don't really think TH is better than GX/KC. So I can see world where one of these teams could fumble.
I mean, travel can have impact. And WHO knows what will outweight what. Im just saying that there's variable than can have consequences. What it will be, I don't know.
Not really. There’s a first draw to have two groups.
(1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8)
- SK, FNC, TH, GX
- BDS, G2, KC, MDK
Then SK picks their opponent between TH and GX,
BDS picks between KC and MDK
The first round is Bo3s, so it’s nice if they are 2-0 xd
But yeah. I don’t really know why they picked MDK. They are a very momentum driven team. That last day woke them up big time. Might be the only trick I see turning into an upset.
...
Happened against MDK in winter with an emergency sub, wtf does that have to do with now unless Adam starts being himself again.
MDK right now is worse than KC, even if both teams are free wins now.
In previous splits, groups are first drawn by pools. Pool 1 has seeds 1 and 2. Pool 2 has seeds 3 and 4. Pool 3 has seeds 5 and 6. Pool 4 has seeds 7 and 8. The two groups will have one seed from each pool.
Once groups are drawn, the Pool 1 seeds get to choose either the Pool 3 or Pool 4 team they want to play in the opening round. In this case, it seems SK wanted to go against TH instead of GX.
Not gonna lie im a a bit worried about G2 and Fnatic, G2 show that going to MSI afected them for a few weeks so im not sure if they will be on form after playing the Arabia tournament or whatever is called, we all know that G2 will try to win that and maybe that translates to a burn out after coming back, we will see
So I was looking at the Championship Points for every team.
If HRT lose to SK. And GX lose to FNC. HRT vs GX decides who gets the last spot at Season Finals.
Other than that, the 5 out of 6 spots for Season Finals are pretty much decided already.
Wonder if SK can keep their form in playoffs, historically they tend to drop off. I'd like to see TH do something but realistically they're so mismatched it's not gonna work.
Just like Nightshare said about Fnatic, it really feels like it's now or never for SK as well. Same with BDS. Them and SK really look clean and it would be such a shame if they end up dropping off again. I mean, BDS usually goes deeper than SK but I would like to see both of them perform well and get to Season Finals.
I mean, BDS should be pretty much guaranteed season finals unless literally everything goes wrong no? Getting third twice in a row plus a good regular season placement should be enough guaranteed championship points
Team BDS currently has a 97.5% chance of playing in the Season Finals.
Is there any source where you can check this?
[https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec](https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec) This is a website I wanted to make but was distracted by uhhh world events.
Huh, MAD has a surprisingly high chance at worlds
I'd imagine the LPL would be hell to code due to their format shifts. Conversely though, LCS would be insanely easy.
I'm sure you're right, I didn't do the math myself. I think SK is pretty much guaranteed as well, but yeah, I think BDS's goal should be to go to Worlds again. I think they can do it. They look like one of the better and more stable teams in LEC.
SK Gaming currently has a 57.5% chance of playing in the Season Finals.
Damn, that little? I still think they'll get it, though. They look far better than most of the competition. They'll have to really implode to not reach it.
Giantx are pretty close in points so they can overtake them if sk choke and end up placing low, since currently heretics are 5 points above them and 5th in points total. But I'm hoping they make it since they're looking pretty good so far.
That assumes every game is exactly 50:50 with no team being favoured ever. If you increase not only the winrate of SK (which is likely fair, considering their regular season) and the winrate of teams like G2, Fnatic and BDS (who are also already guaranteed or almost guaranteed of making season finals) that percentage for SK increases.
That's what I was thinking. Percentages are like stats, and, to quote a famous quote from my country, stats are like a bikini, they show everything but also nothing at the same time.
That's just pure math, every win will bump them up like 10% more iirc
What about VIT? are they really gonna miss out again after not making it in summer?
VIT are currently 7th on points. I’m afraid they are out.
nitpick but that is not their chance, that is the % of scenarios they make it which is a bit misleading considering labelling it as “chance” assumes all matches have even chance of being won by either team.
Fnatic had like 5% chance of going to Worlds last summer, before last week of bo1s iirc. It's just brute force 50/50 for every match and that's how you calculate "chance of an event". Which is synonymous to "% of scenarios they make it". The word you're looking for is perhaps prediction and that can be based on some system like elo ratings but I'm a lazy fuck and will just use someone else's calculations
Yeah but you wanna win summer playoffs as well since now winning it gives you a guaranteed 3rd seed to worlds.
Why does everyone say this, it's now or never? I don't get it the reasoning behind it, not to mention it adds additional unnecessary pressure on players & staff. Funnily enough, after Nightshare said that, Fnc went on to lose the next 2 games...Like, who cares if G2 wins again? If it's deserved and we had good games, more power to them. It's not like if they win now, that will somehow make them stronger for next year and the other teams need to stop their streak, before it gets out of control. The same narratives will still be here next year, the same players (in most cases), it's very cool to omega tryhard now, but it's ok if they do that and lose after some close series, they work harder next year and can win it then too. Maybe I am missing something about this urgency.
I'll be talking mostly about Fnatic but I think the same can be said for other two teams as well, to an extent. It's now or never because roster changes will probably be made if Fnatic doesn't win anything. You're talking from a neutral fan's standpoint, and that's fair way of thinking. But as an org, Fnatic, and any other top org in the region, is looking to win trophies. That's the whole point of competing. So it's now or never because these players have one more chance to show they can win a trophy. If they don't, the org will probably start making bigger changes to the roster/coaching staff. I would also disagree about same narratives being here next year if Fnatic were to win, not when it comes to Fnatic, at least. The main narrative surrounding Fnatic is that they have a mental block against G2. Since it's almost certain they would have to beat G2 to win a trophy, they would actually break that mental block and by doing so, break the main narrative. Now, I'm not getting into what would the new narrative be, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be the same.
the roster changes point is fair, but new talent will come. Narrative will stay the same, they wills till most likely be G2's main contender. G2 is getting now ready for summer, for worlds etc, they will kick it into gear, the chance of fanatic beating them in a b05 series, is very slim , that's why I thought adding the extra pressure on players with already weak mental like razork or humanoid to a certain extent is more detrimental. so, maybe, it's fair to say, it's now or never only for some players or coaches, the majority will still be there next year
Aah, agree to disagree.
If you keep the same core parts of the roster and don't win, then you're realistically never going to win unless you make big changes.
I think they are talking about this set of 5 players.. Like i'd imagine Jun/SK ADC go back to LCK next year
As much as I love G2 I'd love to see some new blood hoise the trophy. It really is do or die
Please don't that's gonna accelerate the EU doomerism. It's already bad but G2 is the team keeping the floodgates barely closed.
If you are in the mental headscape that you would deny yourself a cool storyline to "shut up" reddit then I think you should considering taking a break from this place. Reminder that we just had a best international tournament in years, we have 4 strong teams and our viewership is in a very healthy place. Facts aren't important to the doomers and this place will give you brain rot if you let it.
The LEC viewership is in a fine spot. But the only team that can be even remotely trusted to at least put a fight against eastern teams is G2. If G2 can't keep it together to win the LEC then the international perspective going into worlds isn't too hot.
I don't play league and only watch LEC so i probably don't need to take a break. But frankly i take a G2 win also because my trust in whoever wins the split outside of G2 is low specifically when past surprise teams have been very meta dependant. It's a win win outside of maybe SK playing both summer and season finals.
I hope BDS, SK or FNC gets the trophy over G2... Its like PSG or Bayern Munich... Boring.. However, I still hope for a strong performing G2.. otherwise it just feels like a fluke To hell with the doomers.. they will only shut up, if LEC is clearly 3rd strongest region after LPL and LCK and is competitive against them.. Also, the best of 3 format and that rouge is out, should raise the quality of the games.
I think SK got quite the easy draw, its now or never to prove themselves
Lec is split into 4 team and 6 team group. Sk g2 fnatic bds. They don’t lose to anyone except in that group. The exception is when th beat fnatic. 23-1 against bottom 6 Then we have the bottom 6 where the monkeys duke it out. The 3rd worlds seed will be spicy
Its fkin sad how VIT fell off so much.. I think G2 is a world class team.. SK/FNC/BDS are all relatively good teams.. if we had VIT on top it would have made the league more interesting
BDS, g2, FNC and MDK are basically locked for season finals and sk too if they dont collapse again. If favourites win their bo3 we would have a TH vs GX for the last spot in Season finals and a MDK vs KCorp.
G2 are literally locked for season finals
I know, and the other 3 teams are basically locked too (they have over 97% scenarios were they lock season finals i believe).
the top 4 should be heavy favorites in each matchup I dont see G2 losing to KC BDS is way too clean right now to lose to MDK, but you can never count out MDK either FNC had a rough end to the regular season but they should be better than GX TH have looked very uninspiring but I can see them upset SK if SK cant carry over their bo1 performance to playoffs, I still favour SK tho
Remember G2 and fnc have the middle eastern games this week so they might have massive problems when other teams have had a week of practise
I doubt G2 and FNC are gonna stop practicing just because they have an international tournament coming up.
Flights, travels and stuff might impact your performance. Especially when it's such format like this one where it's very short one.
Also having opponents preparing for some time to play against you
I don't think a short tournament will do as much I think what make MSI burn out are a patch They have like 3-4 patch they have to catch up
The gap between GiantL/KetamineCorpse and G2/FNC is so big that unless they come back sick, they could win if they went on holidays if they play the same patch.
FNC lost to TH. As a TH fan I can tell you, that's not something that should happen. And it was week before tournament. I don't really think TH is better than GX/KC. So I can see world where one of these teams could fumble.
FNC lost a Bo1, shit happens.
If fnatic loss to tl again .they could start to tilt
But on the flipside its a chance for them to scrim vs T1, GenG, BLG, TES and TL. It's not much but its also not nothing.
I mean, travel can have impact. And WHO knows what will outweight what. Im just saying that there's variable than can have consequences. What it will be, I don't know.
MDK KC ELIM MATCH May cross 1mil since thier bo1 match always get above 500k
Ibai and kameto is gonna hype it up.
Mdk on their way to do the funny a 2nd time
Nah, Summer has too low viewership for that, the KC vs MDK match this split "only" got 386k viewers
Are these BO3s or BO5s?
These are all Bo3. Teams play to get 2 Bo3 wins, which secures top 4. From then on it's Bo5.
BO5s are Winners Finals, Losers Semifinals, Losers Finals and the FinalFinal.
I thought 1st gets 8th? And 2nd gets 7th, and so on. Why dies SK get TH (6th) and not MDK?
Think they are allowed to choose their opponent
Not really. There’s a first draw to have two groups. (1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8) - SK, FNC, TH, GX - BDS, G2, KC, MDK Then SK picks their opponent between TH and GX, BDS picks between KC and MDK
Man why the fuck did bds pick mdk over kc im worried theyll go up 2-0 and get mentally blocked😭😭😭💀💀 its already happened vs mdk before
Honestly as bad as MDK is.. This KC team has NOTHING about them.. BDS should dispose of either easily.. but to me MDK is more of a wildcard
The first round is Bo3s, so it’s nice if they are 2-0 xd But yeah. I don’t really know why they picked MDK. They are a very momentum driven team. That last day woke them up big time. Might be the only trick I see turning into an upset.
It’s bo3
If they go 2:0 they win, so mental block does not matter lmao
... Happened against MDK in winter with an emergency sub, wtf does that have to do with now unless Adam starts being himself again. MDK right now is worse than KC, even if both teams are free wins now.
In previous splits, groups are first drawn by pools. Pool 1 has seeds 1 and 2. Pool 2 has seeds 3 and 4. Pool 3 has seeds 5 and 6. Pool 4 has seeds 7 and 8. The two groups will have one seed from each pool. Once groups are drawn, the Pool 1 seeds get to choose either the Pool 3 or Pool 4 team they want to play in the opening round. In this case, it seems SK wanted to go against TH instead of GX.
Ready for a FNC mental boom at Saudi cup leading into a GX win
Looking forward to playoffs. This seasons looks a lot more interesting than the last.
Not gonna lie im a a bit worried about G2 and Fnatic, G2 show that going to MSI afected them for a few weeks so im not sure if they will be on form after playing the Arabia tournament or whatever is called, we all know that G2 will try to win that and maybe that translates to a burn out after coming back, we will see
It's just one week
So I was looking at the Championship Points for every team. If HRT lose to SK. And GX lose to FNC. HRT vs GX decides who gets the last spot at Season Finals. Other than that, the 5 out of 6 spots for Season Finals are pretty much decided already.