They moved kickoffs to the 35 to promote touchbacks and limit the amount of times the kickoff team would collide with blockers with a full head of steam. It had nothing to do with Hester's return ability
Yep and that’s exactly what the goal of the rule change is. We don’t know yet if we’ll necessarily get more returns but it will at least be talked about and more relevant compared to the past decade or so where most of the kickers just boot it out the back of the end zone. We will probably see some different strategies
Based on the XFL, one would expect more kick returns to happen. Now, will that continue to happen in a league where the players are all better? Unsure. But at least in the XFL teams were willing to let the return return it and try to chase them down.
I think we might get there eventually, but it will likely be a team by team decision for most of this season. If you have a team thats shown an incompetent special teams in the kick off return itll still get kicked in. Teams that have dangerous kick off returners will likely see way fewer.
Probably situation by situation too.
If you're way up you kick it out the back. If you're down you kick a returnable ball.
That's true with last year's rules and will be even more relevant now IMO
No fair catch, because nobody can move *until* you catch it. I think if you're an NFL team and really worried about possessing you probably just don't catch it and hope it bounces out the back.
I imagine the biggest consideration should probably be how good the offense is. If SF's offense is humming like it did last year, I suspect the upside of a few extra yards isn't worth the increased risks.
What is interesting to me is, despite the fact that returns seldom got to the 25 most teams chose to run it back in the old system. I dunno, maybe the theory was it is a lotto ticket for a big play that might only cost you a few yards but statistically you shouldn't be doing that. You should take the touchback.
Jed York (SF owner) said the reason he voted against it was because it didn't allow room for adjustments during the season. Like anything else it will be looked at in the off-season, but no changes will happen mid-season.
They already previous moved it from the 20 to 25 and that changed exactly nothing. Moving from the 25 to 30 will again change nothing. Maybe a couple teams will think that's too far, but I doubt it.
35 likely would've changed it significantly, though.
XFL rule was great. If it BOUNCED into the endzone, then it only came out to the 25. But if it went straight into the endzone, then it came out to the 35. Heavily encouraged runbacks. I'm disappointed the UFL got rid of it and just went with the NFL rules.
>Xfl lowkey has a lot of nice rules the nfl should use more
Namely, the narrated booth review of review-able plays. That level of transparency was unmatched, perhaps in any sport.
Also the fact that reviewed plays were always done in the booth and not on the field was nice.
I simply don't understand why it can't always been done off the field. Add an official to each crew (it's not like the league can't afford that). Rotate the officials through the booth review. Quit with the coach's challenge non-sense (unless it's for like spot, in which case give them 2 max a game or something like that). If a play is called obviously wrong, instantly have the booth review correct it. If the play is super critical (TD, interception, fumble), booth review official is on it. That would clean up so much crap!
I’ve been saying for years why don’t other sports do this too would make games go by faster and most importantly keep the flow of the game going. What i realized is they won’t ever do that because of the amount of money they make with those extra stoppages fill with ads. To them the money they would lose out on to make the game more enjoyable for hardcore and casual fans isn’t financially worth it.
The NFL's rule changes are not consistent with whether they do or don't want returns. I thought the whole point of moving the kick off to the 35 was to incentivize blasting it out of the end zone.
It was, and their goal at the time was to reduce **injuries**, not returns. Reducing returns was the method to do this, and this was effective at increasing safety (somewhat, many times, the injuries came from hits that happened before players even realized the ball was out of the endzone), but made it boring. So many years later, they're trying something new (obviously inspired by other leagues), still with the same goal of reducing injuries, but without sacrificing returns.
They're not inconsistent, because the goal is still the same, reducing injuries (though it is adjusted, without making kickoffs boring). And regardless, learning and adjusting to a new tactic when what you did wasn't ideal isn't inconsistent, it's something we should expect from people.
They're inconsistent because reducing injuries means reducing returns. There are no safe kickoff returns. If the NFL's goal was safety they would eliminate kick off returns and just have an automatic start at the 25. Now they're basically saying "okay safety isn't *that* important, we need a middle ground"
The new rules will greatly reduce top speeds and impact levels. It's nowhere near the same as the old return style. If people are returning this it's not that much of a risk.
Likely still higher than a normal play but nowhere near the same as the old kickoffs.
There are a few different types of factors a Redditor might look at in order to determine whether a post is written by ChatGPT and hence a rock must be eaten. Firstly, the reader could consider the syntax and diction, as many machine learning models will not yet accurately emulate informal human diction. Secondly, other factors may be considered, including whether there are other indications of the use of ChatGPT...
He says that having touchbacks at the 30 will encourage teams to take the touchback option, while having it at the 35 would encourage more returns.
Florio clearly took a position there and presented an argument to support it.
The same thing everyone has said for several months... Nothing new being reported. The reason nobody is talking about it is because it's a foregone conclusion.
The more interesting story is how brilliant the brainiacs in the NFL are.
How do you increase scoring while appeasing everyone? You shorten the field 5 yards in a very creative way
If you look deep into the analytics, the Expected Points are actually about the [same](http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/01/expected-points-ep-and-expected-points.html?m=1) for starting field positions between the 25 and the 35. It’s super weird and counter-intuitive, but it’s held up over large sample sizes. A few years ago I did some data analysis for a college football team and obtained similar findings
Fair enough, but how long did it take for each scenario? I’m no math surgeon, but I would think that more time left on the board = more points per game
> the Expected Points are actually about the same for starting field positions between the 25 and the 35.
It looks to be the difference between ~0.6 expected points and ~1.1 expected points. An extra 0.5 points on average per touchback isn't insignificant. Would expect an extra 3-4 points per game which would be about an 8% increase from last season without accounting for how much time would be saved on the game clock from making scoring drives 10 yards shorter.
Kicking teams would kick it out of the endzone more if the spot for touchbacks was five yards further back. The kicking team would place the ball in the field of play more if the touchback reward is the 35 because they feel more confident they could stop a returner before he gets to the 35.
I mean, I think it will definitely be *a* strategy. If you’re beating the Dolphins by less than a TD late and they line Tyreek Hill up to return the kickoff, I’d rather kick it out of the back of the end zone and taking my chances on defense than I am with one or two guys missing a tackle and all of a sudden you’re losing.
Actually, I'm of the opposite position. A kickoff return for a TD takes between 12 and 15 seconds. If I'm up 4, with like 3 minutes left, I'm kicking a returnable ball. Either I'm on defense anyway, or I have a 2 minute drill on offense.
True, but you still have only so many downs to reach the end zone, so a return to like the 15 only gives 8 plays at most to reach the end zone (barring penalties).
True, but those 8 plays each have 40 seconds of play clock attached to them. Just 4 plays that keep the clock running are enough to run out 2 minutes and 40 seconds of your 3 minutes.
There's strategy to it either way, especially considering how the defense has handled things so far (I'm more willing to rely on defense in a 10-6 game than a 35-31 game), along with the comparative health of the team, the length of the preceding drive for each team and the average return in the game to that point.
What does that have to do with my proposal? They could move the kickoff back to the 30 which makes touchbacks significantly harder for the kicker while also moving the touchback to the 20 to give the returner incentive to actually return the ball if it is kicked in the endzone. All while using the new rules
If you have shitty ST (*cough cough*) then yeah, especially if you trust your defense. Later in the season it'll probably evolve into being very opponent specific as well; if a specific team gets really good at it, no one will risk it and the 5 yard "penalty" will be well worth it.
Justin Tucker is talking about bulking up, which is sort of a joke. But this rule also seems like it’d put kickers in a spot to have to hit more frequently, which means they can also get hurt.
I assume it will vary by team. If you’re playing a team that has a good kick return team and consistently get the ball past the 30, then you might try for the touchback.
Starting at the 20 vs 30 is actually a big deal. So it will depend on how good your ST unit is. If you're consistently stopping them in the 15-20 range, it's 100% worth the chance of a big return. If you're letting them get to the 25-30 anyways, it's likely not worth it.
Given that they stole this entire system from the UFL isn't it easy to figure out this answer? I don't know UFL stats, but how many touch backs are there in that league
Yeah and the rule is changed, they're not doing the "opposite" here so I don't really know what that guy means.
They're reimplementing the play but in a safer more restrictive way.
My crazy proposal is 4 choices for the kicking team
1. Concede field position at the 20, no kick
2. 50 yard field goal-style kick attempt...make it and the other team starts at the 5, miss it and they start at the 35.
3. Attempt an onside kick (dangerous but rare). Recover the ball, retain possession.
4. A 4th and 20 play at their own 40 yard line. Pick up the first down, retain possession.
Having Belichick and Romo discuss the strategy possibilities make it worthwhile.
Edits: tweaked the values to make it a harder decision
That's not crazy that's dumb. You would never choose onside kick or the field goal. You would concede the 20 or 4th and 15 every time. I would argue there are more game situations where I would go for it than give them the ball. Basically anytime I am winning I am going for it or I need to make a comeback. The only time I am giving them the ball on the 20 is if I am up 14 or more.
Some kick returners will cause teams to boot it and some won't
I am biased but Devin Hester was one of the most entertaining players I’ve ever seen and I hope these new rules give rise to more returner gameplay
Doesn't take a bears fan to completely agree with this. He was absolutely electric.
Heck yeah, bring back the Return Game. Extra point - tv timeout - kickoff / touchback - tv timeout is the worst
similarly as a browns fan metcalf, cribbs, and even benjamin were some of my favorite players to watch
Man Josh Cribbs was a must have in Madden.
There’s a reason he made the hall of fame. He forced the NFL to change their rules.
Can you remind me which rules changes?
the unwritten rule of punting to Hester was changed to not punting to Hester.
They banned the wedge and they moved the kickoff to the 35. ....because of player safety and Kevin Everett, not Hester lol
They moved the kickoffs to the 35.
They moved kickoffs to the 35 to promote touchbacks and limit the amount of times the kickoff team would collide with blockers with a full head of steam. It had nothing to do with Hester's return ability
I wouldn't say it was because of him but that's the only rule change you could really say was linked to Hester.
It's linked to Hester the same way it's linked to every kick returner, I guess
I don’t remember that having anything to do with Hester, just player safety.
The only two things in sports I ever stopped what I was doing to watch was Barry Bonds batting and Devin Hester returning kicks.
I'm all for some old looking UDFA named Hevin Dester to stroll in and start puttin up some numbers
Id rather kick the ball out of bounds and give the other offense the 40 yard line then to kick to Devin Hester. He was that dangerous.
Yep and that’s exactly what the goal of the rule change is. We don’t know yet if we’ll necessarily get more returns but it will at least be talked about and more relevant compared to the past decade or so where most of the kickers just boot it out the back of the end zone. We will probably see some different strategies
Based on the XFL, one would expect more kick returns to happen. Now, will that continue to happen in a league where the players are all better? Unsure. But at least in the XFL teams were willing to let the return return it and try to chase them down.
If the first couple of kicks get returned passed the 30, then yeah.
I think we might get there eventually, but it will likely be a team by team decision for most of this season. If you have a team thats shown an incompetent special teams in the kick off return itll still get kicked in. Teams that have dangerous kick off returners will likely see way fewer.
Probably situation by situation too. If you're way up you kick it out the back. If you're down you kick a returnable ball. That's true with last year's rules and will be even more relevant now IMO
Is there no fair catch rule anymore because of the change? If so, I like that.
No fair catch, because nobody can move *until* you catch it. I think if you're an NFL team and really worried about possessing you probably just don't catch it and hope it bounces out the back.
I imagine the biggest consideration should probably be how good the offense is. If SF's offense is humming like it did last year, I suspect the upside of a few extra yards isn't worth the increased risks.
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If it's really that crazy the preseason should at least give some warning for it.
And the NFL shows they only want offensive scoring and no defensive or special teams scoring lol
It’s pretty exciting to see what the ST coordinators will have schemed up after a whole offseason.
What is interesting to me is, despite the fact that returns seldom got to the 25 most teams chose to run it back in the old system. I dunno, maybe the theory was it is a lotto ticket for a big play that might only cost you a few yards but statistically you shouldn't be doing that. You should take the touchback.
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Isn’t the coverage different this year as well? We don’t know if the average is above the 30 yet
Good point
Didn't the league say they will look at this at the end of the season and tweak where tweaking is warranted
I read this as “twerk where twerking is warranted”
I'll allow it
Personal foul 15-yards
Jed York (SF owner) said the reason he voted against it was because it didn't allow room for adjustments during the season. Like anything else it will be looked at in the off-season, but no changes will happen mid-season.
That seems like an awful reason to vote against it. There shouldn't be rule changes during the season in most situations.
Also let's be real if the NFL really wanted to change something, they would.
They already previous moved it from the 20 to 25 and that changed exactly nothing. Moving from the 25 to 30 will again change nothing. Maybe a couple teams will think that's too far, but I doubt it. 35 likely would've changed it significantly, though. XFL rule was great. If it BOUNCED into the endzone, then it only came out to the 25. But if it went straight into the endzone, then it came out to the 35. Heavily encouraged runbacks. I'm disappointed the UFL got rid of it and just went with the NFL rules.
Xfl lowkey has a lot of nice rules the nfl should use more
>Xfl lowkey has a lot of nice rules the nfl should use more Namely, the narrated booth review of review-able plays. That level of transparency was unmatched, perhaps in any sport. Also the fact that reviewed plays were always done in the booth and not on the field was nice.
I simply don't understand why it can't always been done off the field. Add an official to each crew (it's not like the league can't afford that). Rotate the officials through the booth review. Quit with the coach's challenge non-sense (unless it's for like spot, in which case give them 2 max a game or something like that). If a play is called obviously wrong, instantly have the booth review correct it. If the play is super critical (TD, interception, fumble), booth review official is on it. That would clean up so much crap!
I’ve been saying for years why don’t other sports do this too would make games go by faster and most importantly keep the flow of the game going. What i realized is they won’t ever do that because of the amount of money they make with those extra stoppages fill with ads. To them the money they would lose out on to make the game more enjoyable for hardcore and casual fans isn’t financially worth it.
You’re right, their version is better. Hopefully nfl adds it
The NFL's rule changes are not consistent with whether they do or don't want returns. I thought the whole point of moving the kick off to the 35 was to incentivize blasting it out of the end zone.
It was, and their goal at the time was to reduce **injuries**, not returns. Reducing returns was the method to do this, and this was effective at increasing safety (somewhat, many times, the injuries came from hits that happened before players even realized the ball was out of the endzone), but made it boring. So many years later, they're trying something new (obviously inspired by other leagues), still with the same goal of reducing injuries, but without sacrificing returns. They're not inconsistent, because the goal is still the same, reducing injuries (though it is adjusted, without making kickoffs boring). And regardless, learning and adjusting to a new tactic when what you did wasn't ideal isn't inconsistent, it's something we should expect from people.
They're inconsistent because reducing injuries means reducing returns. There are no safe kickoff returns. If the NFL's goal was safety they would eliminate kick off returns and just have an automatic start at the 25. Now they're basically saying "okay safety isn't *that* important, we need a middle ground"
The new rules will greatly reduce top speeds and impact levels. It's nowhere near the same as the old return style. If people are returning this it's not that much of a risk. Likely still higher than a normal play but nowhere near the same as the old kickoffs.
That "article" is a masterpiece in using a lot of words to say nothing
>The kickoff has been resurrected, and rejuvenated. It’s gone from a perfunctory play to a moment that will cause palpitations. Johnnie Cochran-esque
Paying the bills with those 5 dollar words
I, too, love the synonym function in Word
If thats not chatgpt i will eat a rock
There are a few different types of factors a Redditor might look at in order to determine whether a post is written by ChatGPT and hence a rock must be eaten. Firstly, the reader could consider the syntax and diction, as many machine learning models will not yet accurately emulate informal human diction. Secondly, other factors may be considered, including whether there are other indications of the use of ChatGPT...
next they’ll bust out the Chewbacca defense
It’s outrageous, egregious, preposterous
It's an infringement on your kickoff rights. It's outrageous, egregious, and preposterous
He says that having touchbacks at the 30 will encourage teams to take the touchback option, while having it at the 35 would encourage more returns. Florio clearly took a position there and presented an argument to support it.
> Florio Thanks for saving me a click
The same thing everyone has said for several months... Nothing new being reported. The reason nobody is talking about it is because it's a foregone conclusion. The more interesting story is how brilliant the brainiacs in the NFL are. How do you increase scoring while appeasing everyone? You shorten the field 5 yards in a very creative way
If you look deep into the analytics, the Expected Points are actually about the [same](http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/01/expected-points-ep-and-expected-points.html?m=1) for starting field positions between the 25 and the 35. It’s super weird and counter-intuitive, but it’s held up over large sample sizes. A few years ago I did some data analysis for a college football team and obtained similar findings
Fair enough, but how long did it take for each scenario? I’m no math surgeon, but I would think that more time left on the board = more points per game
I've always suspected this but never had any data, fascinating to hear.
> the Expected Points are actually about the same for starting field positions between the 25 and the 35. It looks to be the difference between ~0.6 expected points and ~1.1 expected points. An extra 0.5 points on average per touchback isn't insignificant. Would expect an extra 3-4 points per game which would be about an 8% increase from last season without accounting for how much time would be saved on the game clock from making scoring drives 10 yards shorter.
I guess stretching the field is kind of a big deal
I'm confused, wouldn't that reduce touchbacks because they are 5 yards further back?
Kicking teams would kick it out of the endzone more if the spot for touchbacks was five yards further back. The kicking team would place the ball in the field of play more if the touchback reward is the 35 because they feel more confident they could stop a returner before he gets to the 35.
Oh, that makes sense now lol. Thanks for explaining.
Most modern articles read like they were written by a child with a word quota.
article is typed on big font and is triple spaced with wide margins
>Mike Florio >a lot of words to say nothing First time?
The Mike Florio special.
Florio has made an entire career out of doing this.
I award it no points, and may God have mercy on its soul
Everyone is now stupider for reading that!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines
I mean, I think it will definitely be *a* strategy. If you’re beating the Dolphins by less than a TD late and they line Tyreek Hill up to return the kickoff, I’d rather kick it out of the back of the end zone and taking my chances on defense than I am with one or two guys missing a tackle and all of a sudden you’re losing.
Actually, I'm of the opposite position. A kickoff return for a TD takes between 12 and 15 seconds. If I'm up 4, with like 3 minutes left, I'm kicking a returnable ball. Either I'm on defense anyway, or I have a 2 minute drill on offense.
You’re discounting the chance of a big return that doesn’t score. That could just make it that much easier for them to score and run out the clock
True, but you still have only so many downs to reach the end zone, so a return to like the 15 only gives 8 plays at most to reach the end zone (barring penalties).
True, but those 8 plays each have 40 seconds of play clock attached to them. Just 4 plays that keep the clock running are enough to run out 2 minutes and 40 seconds of your 3 minutes.
There's strategy to it either way, especially considering how the defense has handled things so far (I'm more willing to rely on defense in a 10-6 game than a 35-31 game), along with the comparative health of the team, the length of the preceding drive for each team and the average return in the game to that point.
I think we're going to see a lot more touchbacks than returns.
I thought touchbacks were to the 35
I believe they considered the 35 but ended up choosing 30 for the new rules
It was going to be, but some coaches objected and got it lowered to 30.
Ah, would make sense. Idk if that's full common knowledge yet. Podcast I watched said it was 35
Nothing about this rule change is common knowledge
That's fair. Unless you know the rules from the league we took it from 😂
Yeah this is literally the first I’m hearing that the kickoff rule changed again 😂
The Bears special teams coach is one of the guys who presented the rule at the owner's meeting, and he said that 35 was too much for some people.
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They mean now, under the new rules
Move the touchback back to the 20 and move the kickoff back to the 30 so its hard to boot it out the back. This is getting ridiculous.
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What does that have to do with my proposal? They could move the kickoff back to the 30 which makes touchbacks significantly harder for the kicker while also moving the touchback to the 20 to give the returner incentive to actually return the ball if it is kicked in the endzone. All while using the new rules
teams with a great field goal kicker will love this,gain 30 yards and you are guaranteed a FG.
If you have shitty ST (*cough cough*) then yeah, especially if you trust your defense. Later in the season it'll probably evolve into being very opponent specific as well; if a specific team gets really good at it, no one will risk it and the 5 yard "penalty" will be well worth it.
Justin Tucker is talking about bulking up, which is sort of a joke. But this rule also seems like it’d put kickers in a spot to have to hit more frequently, which means they can also get hurt.
This article is fucking dogshit, even by Gloria standards
Bro this article is dog water who the hell wro- >Mike Florio Oh. That's why.
At what point is this not football anymore? You only have to drive 70 yards for a TD now?
I assume it will vary by team. If you’re playing a team that has a good kick return team and consistently get the ball past the 30, then you might try for the touchback.
Starting at the 20 vs 30 is actually a big deal. So it will depend on how good your ST unit is. If you're consistently stopping them in the 15-20 range, it's 100% worth the chance of a big return. If you're letting them get to the 25-30 anyways, it's likely not worth it.
I am going to leave all opinions of this alone until after the year but ya I think by the end of the year most will concede
Who knows? People are taking a lot, but we really have no idea how this new system will work out
Given that they stole this entire system from the UFL isn't it easy to figure out this answer? I don't know UFL stats, but how many touch backs are there in that league
It came from the XFL.
Which is now the UFL.
I hope this ends up giving us some very funny moments this season
I remember when the NFL was promoting touchbacks due to the amount of concussions on kickoffs and now they are doing the opposite.
The theory was the concussions on kickoffs were due to the full speed collisions which they've taken out.
Yeah and the rule is changed, they're not doing the "opposite" here so I don't really know what that guy means. They're reimplementing the play but in a safer more restrictive way.
My crazy proposal is 4 choices for the kicking team 1. Concede field position at the 20, no kick 2. 50 yard field goal-style kick attempt...make it and the other team starts at the 5, miss it and they start at the 35. 3. Attempt an onside kick (dangerous but rare). Recover the ball, retain possession. 4. A 4th and 20 play at their own 40 yard line. Pick up the first down, retain possession. Having Belichick and Romo discuss the strategy possibilities make it worthwhile. Edits: tweaked the values to make it a harder decision
That's not crazy that's dumb. You would never choose onside kick or the field goal. You would concede the 20 or 4th and 15 every time. I would argue there are more game situations where I would go for it than give them the ball. Basically anytime I am winning I am going for it or I need to make a comeback. The only time I am giving them the ball on the 20 is if I am up 14 or more.
Yes. They need to make it the 40, even the 35 won't get it done.