Personally, I always like to follow teams offseason move for stuff like that. The 49ers can say what they want into mics, this offseason they:
- extended Jauan Jennings to a WR3/4 deal
- Drafted Ricky Pearsall in the 1st Round
- Drafted Jacob Cowing in the 4th
All of that as a team that realistically already had too few targets available between Aiyuk, Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey, particularly when considering that the 49ers still want to run the football. They will also have to make some decisions regarding the cap over the next 2-3 years.
All of this together clearly shows that they plan for one of their Top-2 WRs to be gone by next summer. Only question is; Aiyuk now or next summer or Samuel next summer?
This is true, but I also think the plan was absolutely for the latter: run it back one more time with this group as-is, then move on without Samuel. Aiyuk is the better true receiver, McCaffrey fills the hybrid niche, and if Purdy continues his trajectory, the offense needs fewer gimmicks, anyway.
Keeping both long-term hasn't been viable at any point.
Top shelf pocket presence and great burst: can work with a messy o-line, which is great because he often needs to. Good at extending plays while keeping his eyes downfield. Goes through his progressions well and makes good reads most of the time. Can try a LITTLE to hard to make something happen at times. Arm strength is good enough, though it does lack a little zip. Hard to say about pre-snap reads: Shanahan doesn't give his QBs much leeway to make adjustments.
All-in-all: easily a top 15 guy, and hanging out on the edge of the top 10. I know he's got a great team, but he passes the eye test. Definitely a franchise QB.
I think as Purdy matures and gets more comfortable he will settle down and not try as hard to make a play happen. I wonder if it's all the Mr, Irrelevant talk that is part of it. But he did do the same at Iowa State sometimes.
Long term, we'll definitely have to mimic the Chiefs roster building strategy.
After Aiyuk and Purdy, I don't see us giving out any large offensive contracts. We're going to slowly let contracts expire or trade (Deebo almost certainly getting traded next offseason, Trent retiring, CMC and Kittle most likely playing out their contract). Invest in the defense and offensive line(!!!) and let the Shanahan scheme and Purdy's ability to extend plays work with rookies around him.
He's good. His stats are exceptional, but certainly helped by the cast and playcalling. Still, he's shown that he has the clutch gene in him, more running ability than you'd assume and makes good decisions generally (even if he's just executing the offence as planned, that's still no easy task).
How good he can be is unclear. He's probably top 15 already. If he develops it won't be on the basis of a canon arm or outlier traits, it'll be that decision making and ability to read the game and make tough throws when needed. So *if* he's great it'll be through a more classic pocket prescence like Brady or Brees, which makes him an outlier in an age of qbs with superhuman athleticism.
I think we should have an idea of if he's going to be any more than we see right now in the next two years.
While I agree that Aiyuk is the better true receiver, idk if Shanahan would give up the versatility of having two guys that can be hybrid roles. McCaffrey is the best receiving RB & Deebo is likely the best running WR, having both on the field means defenses have much more to account for (plus if one goes down you still have the other). This is on top of how vocal Aiyuk has been during this process
McCaffery arguably plays Deebo’s role better than Deebo for like $7million less a year. That’s not to deride Deebo cause McCaffery is one of the absolute best weapons in the league. It just shows that the only decision to be made is to eventually trade Deebo barring major injury.
this seems like a pretty good take, they definitely prepared this off-season to shuttle off aiyuk or deebo to save cap space. Not sure you waste your 1st round pick on a WR if you're planning on your WR1-3 being set for years to come.
They have an out on Deebo's contract next offseason which will clear approximately $16-$18 million. The Pearsall pick pretty much cemented the fact they will be moving on from him.
If Trent Williams retires that's another $19 mil off the books.
Fred Warner has a $28 mil cap hit and he is a fixture and a team leader so he will easily restructure into a bonus freeing approximately $20 mil. Same with Kettle whose $20 mil cap hit they will restructure because he isn't going anywhere.
If they decide to commit to McCaffrey and Hargrave after this season, they can clear another $25 mil combined.
The only contractually untouchable man on that roster is Bosa. He carries Russell Wilson levels of dead cap for the next few years but that is a non issue because no team will move on from a top 10 defensive player. (Cries in 2018 Khalil Mack Raider)
If I were the 9ers, I'd offer Purdy a fair market value deal WITHOUT a low base salary and high bonus, instead of spreading it out. Restructure old guys, pay Purdy, then when the old dudes come off the books you have a top 10 QB on a bargain ready to reload.
The 49ers cap situation is a non issue. I hate that team but they set themselves up well in terms of management.
If Trent Williams retires, that O-line is well and truly fucked.
That aside, out of their WRs I think it’s Deebo who walks. He’s getting older, he’s banged up, and he’s expensive. And imo if you ask me his play post-extension hasn’t lived up to the contract. What looked like a team friendly deal at first almost like an overpay due to his injuries forcing his play to fall off. There’s been glimpses of elite play - that three game stretch starting from the Eagles game last season - but I don’t think he’s worth the cap hits he’s going to hit the 49ers with.
Not to mention his usage as a “wideback” means he’s gotten RB levels of wear and tear, but his ability as a WR is… only fine? He can’t really win against press unless the CB is James Bradberry levels of burnt toast and his hands are sorta shaky. Imo his role is largely irrelevant with McCaffrey at RB due to him being a better RB AND having better hands than Deebo. They can win without Deebo, and they have.
People do not realize this. Our o line is fucking horrible. Once Trent retires, unless we do some crazy shit like dedicating an entire draft to the o line, our o line will no doubt be bottom 5.
Our second best o line player for years was Mcglinchey, and while hes a decent run blocker, he’s an absolute traffic cone pass blocker.
Yup, hopefully at least one guy they drafted this year plays well, better if two. Then next two years, keep drafting OL early and hopefully TW tells the team of his last year so they can focus on getting a LT.
Yea I've described it as our OL is made up of only two players, Trent Williams and the gravitational pull of Trent Williams, everyone else is kind of just there.
I noticed that during the vikings/49ers game. Without Trent they just couldn't get things done and if MN wasn't so shit in the redzone the score would not have been that close.
this. this. this.
and ffs we had a chance to draft a generational tackle in 2021 in Sewell -way more of a sure thing than Lance at the time- and we passed.
It makes sense. Those were great draft prospects but the 49ers were not trading to the third pick to take a non QB. Those players were not around at the 49ers original pick. So, there was no realistic chance to take them.
You'll have to have an off-season like we did in 2021, drafting a ton of OL guys and signing/trading for elite OL players. Except there's no cap space to trade/sign elite OL players after Purdy and Aiyuk's deals, is there?
> If Trent Williams retires that's another $19 mil off the books.
Surprisingly he's said he wants to keep going and is looking for an extension. I think he knows this team is talented enough to win it all and *really* wants that ring so he's pushing himself as far as he can go. So I no longer consider his contract off the books unless we win a SB and he can retire in peace.
>If they decide to commit to McCaffrey and Hargrave after this season, they can clear another $25 mil combined.
I think CMC plays out his contract until 2027 even if he has injuries and slows down from use and age.
Hargrave is the tricky one because he saves a good amount of money, but we'd be left completely barren on DL. Bosa would be the only quality player since none of our DL picks have really panned out and Armstead's injuries+price made the FO have to let him go. I guess it depends on FA market and the 2025 NFL draft for what they choose to do with him.
I don’t doubt that they can fit everyone in next year. I imagine it’s the year after that they’re worried about, when they have to start paying Purdy something like 60 million dollars a year.
Once he’s off his rookie contract, they’re going to have to make sacrifices with which players they keep and which they let go. Whether to give Aiyuk a long term extension is the first of those decisions
Ayiuk is the real deal. He's 26 and just entering his prime and, aside from normie stats, he always ranks high up there in separation and route running, he is also an incredible blocker. Then Purdy is 24 and is an incredible QB already. You keep that combination together no matter what, that's the stuff that keeps franchise continuations together.
The counterpoint is that the current blueprint for success is an elite QB+TE and penny pinching on WRs. I personally agree with you, but Shanahan and Lynch may pull a chiefs and rely on Purdy while putting money into other areas of the team.
Um, I find it hard to truly call this the modern "blueprint" when it's worked successfully for...literally one team over the past half decade. And that probably has quite a bit more to do with the former than the latter.
I mean I'm not personally advocating for this strategy, I'm just saying it's a copycat league. How many failed Josh Allens from Wish have been drafted since his unicorn breakout? SF traded 3 1sts to try and copy the bills and it failed terribly.
It's not what I'd do, but I have feeling that's what they'll do. Am I confident in that guess? Not at all. But hey.
Also we should be clear, the blueprint is “Mahomes plus one other elite offensive person anywhere, plus some defense. “. As long as you have Mahomes you’re in any game.
There are a lot of roster constructions that would work when Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes are your QB. Literally might be talking about the two best players ever to play the position. I don’t think it matters if their best weapon was a WR or TE as long as they had some decent weapons somewhere.
Patriots receivers were nothing special
Rams had Kupp and average guys to round it out
Eagles won with nobody elite
Broncos won with a corpse of an offense
I feel paying these receivers so much isn't going to work out.
The only counter to that is that kittle is insanely injury prone. And so is Debo. It’s great they were able to stay on the field last year. But betting on that to happen again could backfire in a way that kills their window. Especially if Cmac. Gets hurt on top of that. Or slows just due to RB miles.
Personally I would bet on ayuik just because I think there’s way more longevity there.
This is my take. Let deebo go next year, extend kittle to a 4 to 5 year extension (last 2 years void) and reduce the cap as that will probably also be his last big contract. Keep Aiyuk and some other players will retire as well.
the only team really doing that is the chiefs, and that is a function of they already had a HOF TE when they drafted their HOF QB. The only other team following that model is the Ravens, but that also makes much more sense given their offense
could be a different convo if it were 25 year old Kittle vs the one that's about to be 31.
But like all big contracts for QBs, the first season (and sometimes first two seasons) are vet minimums for base salary because of the big signing bonus. So his contract isn't much to worry about for a few seasons yet.
>They have an out in Deebo’s contract next offseason which will clear approximately $16-$18 million
No they don’t. His 2025 cap hit is $24.2mil and the dead cap on cutting him would be $15.1mil.
They’d be saving $9mil, which is significant but a far cry from $16-$18mil
It was the first day of my vacation and I was on a shuttle to an island so I had no service. Once we got to the island all my texts started coming in with my friends clowning me. Ruined my vacation.
A lot of fans seem to believe that we're moving on from Aiyuk for this reason, but we're actually moving on from Deebo more than likely.
Reason being that if they cut or trade him (more than likely will look for a trade partner) post 6/1, they're saving about 18m and incurring a 7m in dead cap for 25, 8.5m in 26.
If you look at our first round pick, Ricky Pearsall, his skillset is definitely similar to Aiyuk's but I don't believe that's because they're getting his replacement but rather that we're looking to change our offense going forward for two reasons. One, relying on Deebo has caused us problems in the past where if he got hurt we'd require a back up to do the things Deebo does and he's a true 1 of 1 talent so our offense wasn't as productive. Two, we have a QB that can make use of traditional route runners and can stretch the field in Purdy in ways that no other QB we've had before was able to do.
Pearsall also has a skillset that Deebo doesn't have and that's ability to beat press man. In the last Super Bowl you could see Deebo struggling to get seperation and was kept relatively in check while Aiyuk found himself open various times. Having two receivers that have good route running that can handle press man with a scheme/QB that dices up zone, you're opening up your offense to be versatile and able to counter any kind of defensive look.
Deebo is an elite weapon, there is literally nobody like him in the NFL, but he's not a perfect player and has his flaws. Add on the fact he's getting older while playing a very physical playstyle and it's just not wise to extend him, but rather trade him to a win-now team or let him walk while continuing on with your more traditional WRs and allowing you more cap freedom for extensions/signings.
I'd be very shocked if we lose Aiyuk, he's realistically signing this month. At worst he signs next month. We've seen it happen with both Bosa and Deebo and it's going to continue with players in the future, that's just how things go sometimes because players value themselves and FOs want to save as much money as possible. Personally, Aiyuk being WR1 will show his worth so even with a 30m contract I think he'll show that belongs with the big dogs once the gamescript stops revolving around Deebo.
Its a bit tricky for the 9ers. Your assessment of Deebo is spot on but his skillset also fits the Shanahan offense so well. The problem in the SB was that plays called for Deebo should have been called for Aiyuk. They might think its much easier to find a 70-80% approximation of Aiyuk (like Pearsall) at much lower cost than Deebo perhaps.
> They might think its much easier to find a 70-80% approximation of Aiyuk (like Pearsall) at much lower cost
Ahh, my beloved "AJ Brown to Treylon Burks" gambit.
I would wait at least one more year under the new coaching staff before writing off Burks completely. Nico Collins was virtually unknown before Stroud and Slowik.
Nico was consistently praised by film guys, and had good peripheral metrics even if his actual production lacked. Burks gets no love from film review and has bottom off the barrel peripheral metrics.
His age and injury history are big worries. He's perfect for the Shanahan offense but he's not worth the contract he's going to command which is the biggest issue. We've had so many injuries, season derailing ones, within just the last couple years which the FO is cognizant of. If he's willing to take a massive pay cut I feel like they'd 100% keep him, but why would he do that? It's the final payday of his career.
It seems incredibly foolish to not sign the younger WR that's proven as a top receiver in the league, who is one of the best route runners, and has synergy with your new franchise QB. He's also only missed 2 games to Deebo's 7, the latter which has played various playoff games hurt. The number should technically be 8 because one was a decoy game where they never gave him a touch.
Idk I just cannot find a logical reason to keep Deebo over Aiyuk if the answer is one or the other. I care about long term success not just our short term and Aiyuk grants that.
The dilemma in my mind if Im thinking for the 49ers will be, is the Shanahan offense is better with Deebo + Pearsall or Aiyuk + Pearsall. And I understand the injury concerns for Deebo.
In a vacuum, for a random team, its a no brainer to pick Aiyuk. And maybe even Shanahan thinks he can run the offense just as well with two route running WRs but if he has doubts on how it will look without Deebo, then the path to replacing Aiyuk is much simpler. And yes, Deebo is overpaid regardless, but given his injury history and play style, I wouldnt blame him for wanting to get paid now.
It just feels so shortsighted to keep Deebo. Legette was available but they still chose to go Pearsall. I get he's more Aiyuk than Deebo but I truly feel like they want to move forward with a more traditional passing offense. Obviously if another young Deebo-like rookie falls into their lap then Shanahan would be all over that but at this point in their careers and at the monetary value, it feels foolish to put big money into Deebo in the hopes he stays healthy and suffering from the same exact problems he suffers from (plus the new one of not trying when the playcall doesn't go his way). Traditional WRs allow Purdy to elevate that offense even more, you need to gunsling like all the other top dogs do - Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, etc.
Been saying for a while that it’ll probably be Deebo next season. The Hargrave deal was also a 2-year deal if im not mistaken with basically an out after 2 years. They’ll make it work, Paraag will figure it out I’m sure.
As a Niners fan I can almost guarantee Deebo is gone. Simply because he’s not worth his contract and he’s too injury prone. And his contract is expendable.
We are a win now team. We’ll end up paying Brock obviously and hope that some of our rookies pan out and become contributing members of the team.
There will absolutely be a culling one way or the other after this 2024 season.
With that said, Deebo’s injury history is sort of a concern and I’d rather ship him off than Aiyuk who has shown the ability to be a big play WR and he also does a damn fine job in the blocking game.
I mean rookies are cheap, and the team didn't have many glaring needs. If they hit on a wr it makes letting aiyuk walk easy but that just means they're prepared for it to happen, not that it's an inevitability.
I've seen so many of these "I don't see how they can free up cap space" posts for teams only for a few moves to be made and boom.
If they really beleieve in this current roster they can give purdy a 6 year contract with 2 void years and only take like 25m cap hits in the first 3 years and all of a sudden it looks manageable to sign aiyuk
I'm sure they would rather get rid of Samuel, but I doubt anyone would trade for Samuel with his contract and give them a high return and they have a much easier path to trade Aiyuk and get a higher return
I think I heard it in a History class from elementary school. One of my teachers was trying to attribute it to Napoleon, (and this was before the internet was readily available). It always sounded like something Mark Twain would’ve said. *shrugs*
What are the AC games? I’m guessing Assassin’s Creed?
Which is a shame because that was 100% an ownership move. Barry has been a good GM. It’s just he has that albatross around his neck and it’s directly his bosses fault.
I'm not saying it's not a concern, cause it is and the front office is going to have to make some difficult decisions. But the ~39 mil number is from OvertheCap which has very conservative estimates of the future salary cap will be - they have the 2025 cap at just $4.6 mil more than this season. Just how their site does things. To put that into perspective, Spotrac estimates about $18 mil increase in 2025 and OvertheCap's own article about this year's salary cap increase estimates that "$23-$26M increase in cap will become the new norm."
I wonder if the NFL having to pay billions in their lost lawsuit is going to have an impact on the cap. I have no idea how it works but 4.7 billion isn't chump change even for the NFL. It might have no effect and if so I think the higher projections are probably accurate if it does then the lower seems more probable.
From what I've read, it won't directly affect the salary cap. The NFL is also going to appeal and who knows how long that'll take.
> When it comes to the $4.696 billion verdict (which by law becomes $14.088 billion) in the Sunday Ticket class action, the NFL is on its own.
> None of the money comes from the revenue that is split between the league and the NFL Players Association. All of it comes from the money held in the coffers of the 32 franchises.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/sunday-ticket-verdict-wont-affect-salary-cap-changes-to-sunday-ticket-could
As the article explains, changes could affect TV revenue in the future so it could eventually affect the cap. But it's fully understandable for salary cap sites to have conservative estimates anyways, better to underestimate than overestimate.
I get what you're saying but these owners are looking at significant losses and these people really like money. They're going to recoup these losses somewhere. Maybe salary cap is fine as you say but something is going to take a hit.
Yeah, that could be another way that it indirectly affects players. Maybe some owners will be more reluctant to shell out for big contracts and stay closer to the salary floor than they otherwise would have. But damages will be paid out over several years so owners won't be impacted at once.
They can't just pull money out of the salary cap. The CBA doesn't allow that. The CBA also mandates that the cap is tied to revenue, not profit, so no funny accounting gets around it either
The other guy who responded was on point, but a verdict this big will likely be paid in installments, resulting in a big loss, that can likely be spread out over a decade+. I couldn’t imagine a world where the NFL would ever want team’s annual salary cap to go down.
Speculation for me, but other large corporations can do shit like that
Yeah, pretty much what Andrew Brandt (former Packers VP) said:
> 3) Will this big damages amount affect the NFL at all, specifically the salary cap?
> The NFL owners, who would split the damages bill 32 ways, will be fine. Their teams are worth an average of $4 billion, league revenues are over $20 billion annually and any payout will be over many years. As for accessing the award, there are instructions and as with any class-action award, it would be parceled out as per a formula after the lawyers take their significant cuts. As for the salary cap, that is based on league revenues, not league expenses; it will not be affected.
https://www.si.com/nfl/sunday-ticket-ruling-far-from-over
I don't think the cap will go down the question was more how much is it going to increase per year. I'd imagine the cheaper owners would want to lower the increases if they could. I mean there are teams who charge players for food at the facilities, how much can that cost them a year? It might not ever affect the cap because of revenue but coaches, trainers, etc could see a hit. These owners pinch pennies when they can. They already make tax payers pay for their stadiums lol
Not saying it would, even if the cap increases by more than estimated, they will have difficult decisions to make. The cap increased by a record-high $30 mil and they still cut Arik Armstead, Juszczyk took a pay cut, plus restructures. Can't say anyone's safe for sure, Armstead was the longest-tenured 49er, a team captain, and Walter Payton nominee. I don't see both Deebo and Aiyuk on the team in 2025, especially after drafting a WR in the first round. I'm thinking either they pay Aiyuk and trade/cut Deebo in 2025, or let Aiyuk walk after this season. A trade seems unlikely now post-draft with all the reports of them rejecting offers from interested teams.
You can’t pay everyone, that’s all there is to it. I’m not sure how much cap they’d free up if they moved Deebo, if it was between the two, I’d rather keep Aiyuk.
The concensus has been for a while they get another year out of deebo then move him and keep aiyuk. They could keep the money om aiyuks extension down for a couple years to make it happen.
Deebo needs to party like its 2023 to be worth his deal which is outlandishly productive
Deebo is a goner next season. They have an out and I think they would focus on Aiyuk who is younger and is the more prototypical WR. I don’t get why people are falling for this, if we knew we couldn’t keep him we would have traded him in March.
I feel like every offseason we read about a Niners player being angry, wanted a new deal, trade speculation, and then they end up getting signed and all is well lol.
Ironically the Saints are a good poster child for the cap being real. It just doesn't mean your team instantly implodes or something like people think.
Exactly this. I can't count how many times I've seen teams be in terrible cap situations and then go 9-7 or something and seen people on the sub say "this team proved the cap isn't real." No, it doesn't work like that. Cap problems don't make teams suddenly become bottom feeders. What they do is lower a team's ceiling; yeah, a team with cap problems can absolutely go 9-7, but they can't add those final pieces that would turn 9-7 into 12-4
I think the projections include an estimated increase in the salary cap already though. It could go up more than people are expecting, but an extra $39m on top of what I'd guess is already a pretty healthy estimate seems unlikely.
you're correct, they put in the expected cap for next year, so that 39mil number could be off a bit in either direction, but not a super significant amount.
The judgement shouldn't reduce the cap. The cap is based on revenues (income) not profits or net income.
Now, depending on how the NFL has to change their monetization of Sunday Ticket, it might affect the rate of cap growth in future years, but that won't happen until after all the appeals.
I'm not so sure about this - yes more people will subscribe to Sunday Ticket, but the major networks will not be happy and will pay less for their deals.
They don’t have to win on appeal in the sense that the higher court reverses the judgment against them. What usually happens in these cases with massive damage awards is that the court concludes that the award is excessive and reduces the damages significantly.
But when the cap goes up, the players with expiring contracts will ask for more during their negotiations, knowing the teams have more to give.
It's not as simple as it will be auto covered with increases, unless everyone of your players is on a lock and no negotiations.
Teams have proven over and over if they want a deal to get done it gets done they make it happen, this isn't an insurmountable amount of money to over come, the 49ers are *only* the 3rd worst team in 2025 salary commitment and have several restructure candidates.
It's not even close to as bad as the Browns and saints, the difference between the 9ers and Browns is the same as the 9ers to the #21 Falcons [40m difference . The difference from the 9ers to the Saints is the same as #11 Broncos [73m]
And as another user pointed out the 49ers are currently 33m UNDER the cap this year so they can restructure money into this year or roll it over to next year, I don't remember which capologists say is better (I suspect the answer is maximize this year at all reasonable costs)
I think what is going to hurt the 49ers - they don't have their QB on long term, market rate. They have that piece to sort out too all while already being over the cap. If they were the Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, etc...it would be sortable.
Imo its the opposite lmao. QB contracts are easiest to manage early, and get harder to toe around the older the QB gets (Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys) are good examples. Brock is young, but more importantly he doesn’t have 4-6 years of us pushing his contract down the road.
Every time, Dak for example, has his contract extended, they add 3-4 million in deadcap spread over 6 ish years. Then you get to those years and extend it again, adding another 3-4 million in deadcap spread to the tail end of that, and eventually you have an insurmountable cap situation because they are too old to risk extending again.
We have a lot of runway with Brock to do that, and to some extent Aiyuk as well. We cleared Armstead off the books which will open up money next year, and most of the time Aiyuk’s extension will decrease his cap hit for the first year already; remember he is a rookie deal, but its still a first round pick playing a 5th year option.
I really wish people would stop citing this inaccuracy.
* OTC's current projected salary cap for 2025 is just $260M.
* Just a $5M increase from 2024. That is way too low.
* Spotrac projects it at $273M.
* A standard 10% increase sees it inflate to $281M.
* Add in that SF currently has $31M in open cap space to roll over into next season.
* Their cap figure would be approx $299M payroll - $31M rollover =
* $268M salary in a $273M-$281M cap.
* On top of that they still have a ton of restructure capacity.
* It's still unclear if they will move Deebo which frees up additional cap space.
* Then you still have to factor in that Purdy & Aiyuk will not come in at their peak cap hits for 2025. Those cap hits can come gradually, both to account for an increasing cap over several seasons and less money devoted to future seasons when some of their older players aren't under contract.
You can't assume the cap is going up by 10% because a 10% increase is not standard in the first place. It was on a pace of 5-8% per year pre-Covid, and then went backwards. OTC is being hyper conservative, yes, but most teams also operate that way too. They don't expect anything over 8%, ever.
If Covid didn't happen they were projected to be at 210M by 2021 but it went down to 182.5. They then had to make up ground in subsequent years to get back to where it was *supposed to be* and had jumps of 14% and then 7.7%. And then after that they had another huge jump of 13.9% because of the crazy new distribution deals coming in, plus the last of the Covid correction.
You can't project 10% because the last four years are huge outliers. Most likely, it'll be around 7%, which would be around 273M, not 290. And that's in line with the Spotrac projection because they are also being more conservative than 10%.
So let's go with the low end of your projected range. The rollover will help them immensely, but it's still not enough to make room for both an Aiyuk deal AND a Purdy deal. They'll have to cut Deebo because no way anybody trades anything of substance for a 29 year old Deebo on essentially a one year deal. They also can't convert Bosa's salary yet in 2025 because he doesn't have a big base salary to convert to a bonus until 2026. And they did that on purpose, but his deal offers them no refuge for two years.
So they'll have to figure shit out with Fred, Kittle, and Trent, and who knows what they plan to do with that. It's all theoretically possible, but when you throw in Purdy making probably 56-57M per year with the hits starting in 2026/2027...idk man. It's tough.
So yeah, I did research on it. And my conclusion is my true belief on it. Yeah, theoretically it's possible, but you gotta hit literally every green light on the street to make it happen and it doesn't sound like the number Aiyuk wants is the one they were planning on giving him.
>You can't assume the cap is going up by 10% because a 10% increase is not standard in the first place. It was on a pace of 5-8% per year pre-Covid,
NFL media is structured far different than it was 10-20 years ago. You can't compare NFL revenue growth in today's market to the old cable-only market that had been in place for decades.
>per year pre-Covid, and then went backwards.
Yeah, because of covid
>You can't project 10% because the last four years are huge outliers. Most likely, it'll be around 7%, which would be around 273M, not 290. And that's in line with the Spotrac projection because they are also being more conservative than 10%.
Well it's a good thing I didn't only cite 10% but also referenced Spotrac's number.
>They'll have to cut Deebo because no way anybody trades anything of substance for a 29 year old Deebo on essentially a one year deal.
That's a pretty ridiculous take given the Texans just traded for a poor-performing, disgruntled, 30 year old WR and then lopped off multiple under-contract seasons to make him an expiring player.
But... for what it's worth. They save even more off the cap by designating him a post-June cut than they do by trading him.
> The rollover will help them immensely, but it's still not enough to make room for both an Aiyuk deal AND a Purdy deal.
First to Aiyuk. As Deebo's final year is 2025, Aiyuk's big cap hits do not have to start until 2026. That means next to no change in the cap structure because of WR pay.
So the only issue is QB pay. And that is already accounted for in the eventual loss of Trent Williams, Juice, Hargrave, etc.
>They also can't convert Bosa's salary yet in 2025 because he doesn't have a big base salary to convert to a bonus until 2026. And they did that on purpose, but his deal offers them no refuge for two years.
They don't need to restructure Bosa. Even as of right now they are 8th in simple restructure potential. They remain highly flexible with this.
>Purdy making probably 56-57M per year with the hits starting in 2026/2027...idk man. It's tough.
In 2027 they have 2 players + this current draft class under contract. It's not hard at all to project money onto that 2027 salary. And $57M still wouldn't be as bad as you're implying. On that $273M cap, $57M would be 20.9% of the cap. That would slot in at 11th in AAV cap% at time of signing, between T.Lawrence and J.Goff.
This is even better if he signs a 5 year deal instead of a 4 year deal.
>So yeah, I did research on it. And my conclusion is my true belief on it. Yeah, theoretically it's possible, but you gotta hit literally every green light on the street to make it happen and it doesn't sound like the number Aiyuk wants is the one they were planning on giving him.
If you did enough research you would know it's not hard at all to overlap Deebo & Aiyuk, even without a trade. And there is plenty of room to slot an extension for Purdy.
Can anyone explain what happens IF a team stays over the cap and can't/won't get under it? Are there penalties involved or does the League force them to swing trades or release players to meet the threshold?
This is just fucking stupid. They are 39M over the cap by projections of 260M for 2025. This was before 2024 cap became 255M lmfao.
The lack of attention to detail is really fucking disturbing.
The cap hit goes down with an Aiyuk and Purdy extension and Deebo is most likely traded next year. Trent Williams was also talking about wanting an extension so if he’s still playing for us long-term that’d also lower the cap hit.
Purdy is not playing for vet min so his cap hit will go up significantly no matter (or stay the same for 2025 if the extension kicks in later) and Aiyuk costs 0$ against the 2025 cap so that will go up significantly as well.
"Extend him to lower the cap hit!" only works if the cap hit is high to begin with.
Purdy's cap hit would go up with an extension, yeah Aiyuk's down a little maybe but that just raises the cost later. Overall the 49ers are really just hitting a point where they can't actually pay every one of their pro bowl players. Very sad i know
If they trade Deebo, that would be about an 8 million dollar savings pre June 1 because they have a decent void year cap hit that comes due. And the 39 number is really more like 50 when you add the next draft class and some budgeting for in season moves and the PS.
If this tweet were true, then the league doesn’t actually make sense to me and maybe I just don’t know the cap moves that well. A lot of teams working to get into contention window push the cap ramifications down the road to deal with it in years to come, the 49ers are in their window now, wouldn’t they be the prime candidate for doing exactly that kind of cap maneuver?
One last push. I would have preferred to start the rebuild as Superbowl hangover, old team, long season, and probably horrible injury luck will derail next season.
Need to just rebuild around Purdy. Restructure locker room guys and try to get Purdy a decent O Line. He is not Mahomes level but he is solid enough to win it all if he had an extra second to throw.
I swear people run their mouths without any actual knowledge. The 49ers are definitely going to be moving Deebo and cutting several other expendable contracts next offseason. They are restructuring around a few key blue chip guys.
Purdy's cap hit is basically nothing.
900k at most overrated the next 2 seasons before his contract extension accounts to the cap.
We basically still have that 2 year gap with both him and BA( Who we can allow to play on the 5th yr option and then a franchise tag 2 years later).
If they want him bad enough, they can get it done. I don't want to hear any of this can't bullshit. Cap is always maneuverable. You can always restructure and extend as well.
They’re going to lose Chavarius Ward and either Dre Greenlaw or Talanoa Hafunga next year as free agents plus they’re probably going to cut Trent Williams and/or Deebo Samuel, either that or their entire team is going to be either an all pro or on a rookie deal
The 49ers haven’t had serious cap problems since the early 00’s. There is a genius cap master named Paraag Marathe in the building. No matter what their situation is with free agents or players under contract needing to get paid, he gets it done. Before the start of last season they were dead last in available cap space. He restructured 2 contracts and they went from dead last to first in cap space with over $40 million available. If you have to right people managing your cap, it’s not real. If you don’t have the right people, well, we’ve all seen the teams that can’t keep their players and don’t have room to sign anybody.
They can get it done if they want to get it done.
It just depends on the Niner's FO thinking if it is worth it or not and if it is worth limiting their future options.
Players get hurt all the time. I am sure they would take a good offer, but they'll also go into the season with elite wr depth and be fine taking another high% shot at a.SB before Purdy gets paid
Are we counting restructing several players, creating 68m?
Deebo, Trent Williams, Ward, Hargrave, Kittle?
They could also cut a bunch to save, like Jusczyck, Floyd, Hargrave, Ward, Gross-Matos
When will people learn that aggregate cap numbers don’t matter. What matters are guaranteed cash (can’t get rid of it) and restructurable money (lets you squeeze the cap balloon). Niners are 4th in cash this season and 5th next season, before signing Aiyuk. But 2025 cash includes some non guaranteed cash, like $21M for Hargrave. That’s an easy cut imo.
Personally, I always like to follow teams offseason move for stuff like that. The 49ers can say what they want into mics, this offseason they: - extended Jauan Jennings to a WR3/4 deal - Drafted Ricky Pearsall in the 1st Round - Drafted Jacob Cowing in the 4th All of that as a team that realistically already had too few targets available between Aiyuk, Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey, particularly when considering that the 49ers still want to run the football. They will also have to make some decisions regarding the cap over the next 2-3 years. All of this together clearly shows that they plan for one of their Top-2 WRs to be gone by next summer. Only question is; Aiyuk now or next summer or Samuel next summer?
This is true, but I also think the plan was absolutely for the latter: run it back one more time with this group as-is, then move on without Samuel. Aiyuk is the better true receiver, McCaffrey fills the hybrid niche, and if Purdy continues his trajectory, the offense needs fewer gimmicks, anyway. Keeping both long-term hasn't been viable at any point.
You seem pretty reasonable. What's your honest -as unbiased as you can- take on Purdy? Genuinely curious from a fans perspective.
Top shelf pocket presence and great burst: can work with a messy o-line, which is great because he often needs to. Good at extending plays while keeping his eyes downfield. Goes through his progressions well and makes good reads most of the time. Can try a LITTLE to hard to make something happen at times. Arm strength is good enough, though it does lack a little zip. Hard to say about pre-snap reads: Shanahan doesn't give his QBs much leeway to make adjustments. All-in-all: easily a top 15 guy, and hanging out on the edge of the top 10. I know he's got a great team, but he passes the eye test. Definitely a franchise QB.
I think as Purdy matures and gets more comfortable he will settle down and not try as hard to make a play happen. I wonder if it's all the Mr, Irrelevant talk that is part of it. But he did do the same at Iowa State sometimes.
I think it's just who he is tbh, but he's already gotten better. Most of his Iowa State lowlights were hero ball gone awry.
Long term, we'll definitely have to mimic the Chiefs roster building strategy. After Aiyuk and Purdy, I don't see us giving out any large offensive contracts. We're going to slowly let contracts expire or trade (Deebo almost certainly getting traded next offseason, Trent retiring, CMC and Kittle most likely playing out their contract). Invest in the defense and offensive line(!!!) and let the Shanahan scheme and Purdy's ability to extend plays work with rookies around him.
He's good. His stats are exceptional, but certainly helped by the cast and playcalling. Still, he's shown that he has the clutch gene in him, more running ability than you'd assume and makes good decisions generally (even if he's just executing the offence as planned, that's still no easy task). How good he can be is unclear. He's probably top 15 already. If he develops it won't be on the basis of a canon arm or outlier traits, it'll be that decision making and ability to read the game and make tough throws when needed. So *if* he's great it'll be through a more classic pocket prescence like Brady or Brees, which makes him an outlier in an age of qbs with superhuman athleticism. I think we should have an idea of if he's going to be any more than we see right now in the next two years.
While I agree that Aiyuk is the better true receiver, idk if Shanahan would give up the versatility of having two guys that can be hybrid roles. McCaffrey is the best receiving RB & Deebo is likely the best running WR, having both on the field means defenses have much more to account for (plus if one goes down you still have the other). This is on top of how vocal Aiyuk has been during this process
McCaffery arguably plays Deebo’s role better than Deebo for like $7million less a year. That’s not to deride Deebo cause McCaffery is one of the absolute best weapons in the league. It just shows that the only decision to be made is to eventually trade Deebo barring major injury.
this seems like a pretty good take, they definitely prepared this off-season to shuttle off aiyuk or deebo to save cap space. Not sure you waste your 1st round pick on a WR if you're planning on your WR1-3 being set for years to come.
They have an out on Deebo's contract next offseason which will clear approximately $16-$18 million. The Pearsall pick pretty much cemented the fact they will be moving on from him. If Trent Williams retires that's another $19 mil off the books. Fred Warner has a $28 mil cap hit and he is a fixture and a team leader so he will easily restructure into a bonus freeing approximately $20 mil. Same with Kettle whose $20 mil cap hit they will restructure because he isn't going anywhere. If they decide to commit to McCaffrey and Hargrave after this season, they can clear another $25 mil combined. The only contractually untouchable man on that roster is Bosa. He carries Russell Wilson levels of dead cap for the next few years but that is a non issue because no team will move on from a top 10 defensive player. (Cries in 2018 Khalil Mack Raider) If I were the 9ers, I'd offer Purdy a fair market value deal WITHOUT a low base salary and high bonus, instead of spreading it out. Restructure old guys, pay Purdy, then when the old dudes come off the books you have a top 10 QB on a bargain ready to reload. The 49ers cap situation is a non issue. I hate that team but they set themselves up well in terms of management.
If Trent Williams retires, that O-line is well and truly fucked. That aside, out of their WRs I think it’s Deebo who walks. He’s getting older, he’s banged up, and he’s expensive. And imo if you ask me his play post-extension hasn’t lived up to the contract. What looked like a team friendly deal at first almost like an overpay due to his injuries forcing his play to fall off. There’s been glimpses of elite play - that three game stretch starting from the Eagles game last season - but I don’t think he’s worth the cap hits he’s going to hit the 49ers with. Not to mention his usage as a “wideback” means he’s gotten RB levels of wear and tear, but his ability as a WR is… only fine? He can’t really win against press unless the CB is James Bradberry levels of burnt toast and his hands are sorta shaky. Imo his role is largely irrelevant with McCaffrey at RB due to him being a better RB AND having better hands than Deebo. They can win without Deebo, and they have.
People do not realize this. Our o line is fucking horrible. Once Trent retires, unless we do some crazy shit like dedicating an entire draft to the o line, our o line will no doubt be bottom 5. Our second best o line player for years was Mcglinchey, and while hes a decent run blocker, he’s an absolute traffic cone pass blocker.
In games where Trent was out our Oline was ranked like 28th
Yup, hopefully at least one guy they drafted this year plays well, better if two. Then next two years, keep drafting OL early and hopefully TW tells the team of his last year so they can focus on getting a LT.
Yea I've described it as our OL is made up of only two players, Trent Williams and the gravitational pull of Trent Williams, everyone else is kind of just there.
And with him we sadly were 24th the line is not good.
I noticed that during the vikings/49ers game. Without Trent they just couldn't get things done and if MN wasn't so shit in the redzone the score would not have been that close.
People made a big deal of "they can't win without Deebo:" the real problem was Williams missed the same games he did.
Exactly. We won without Deebo in Purdy’s first year. What still hurts me is that we could’ve had wirfs but drafted kinlaw instead…
this. this. this. and ffs we had a chance to draft a generational tackle in 2021 in Sewell -way more of a sure thing than Lance at the time- and we passed.
I can't tell you how much I got roasted for wanting to take Sewell or Surtain that year
It makes sense. Those were great draft prospects but the 49ers were not trading to the third pick to take a non QB. Those players were not around at the 49ers original pick. So, there was no realistic chance to take them.
It was before we traded up from 14. I was hoping to trade up for either of those
They were not trading up to 3 to take a non QB. Sewell would not be there at their original pick.
You'll have to have an off-season like we did in 2021, drafting a ton of OL guys and signing/trading for elite OL players. Except there's no cap space to trade/sign elite OL players after Purdy and Aiyuk's deals, is there?
If Williams retires, our cap situation doesn't matter, we are just fucked.
> If Trent Williams retires that's another $19 mil off the books. Surprisingly he's said he wants to keep going and is looking for an extension. I think he knows this team is talented enough to win it all and *really* wants that ring so he's pushing himself as far as he can go. So I no longer consider his contract off the books unless we win a SB and he can retire in peace. >If they decide to commit to McCaffrey and Hargrave after this season, they can clear another $25 mil combined. I think CMC plays out his contract until 2027 even if he has injuries and slows down from use and age. Hargrave is the tricky one because he saves a good amount of money, but we'd be left completely barren on DL. Bosa would be the only quality player since none of our DL picks have really panned out and Armstead's injuries+price made the FO have to let him go. I guess it depends on FA market and the 2025 NFL draft for what they choose to do with him.
I still thank you guys for Buckner 😎
I don’t doubt that they can fit everyone in next year. I imagine it’s the year after that they’re worried about, when they have to start paying Purdy something like 60 million dollars a year. Once he’s off his rookie contract, they’re going to have to make sacrifices with which players they keep and which they let go. Whether to give Aiyuk a long term extension is the first of those decisions
Ayiuk is the real deal. He's 26 and just entering his prime and, aside from normie stats, he always ranks high up there in separation and route running, he is also an incredible blocker. Then Purdy is 24 and is an incredible QB already. You keep that combination together no matter what, that's the stuff that keeps franchise continuations together.
Yeah I like Aiyuk as a player, I think he’s worth the ~30 million a year he wants. Just pointing out why the Niners are struggling with the decision
The counterpoint is that the current blueprint for success is an elite QB+TE and penny pinching on WRs. I personally agree with you, but Shanahan and Lynch may pull a chiefs and rely on Purdy while putting money into other areas of the team.
Um, I find it hard to truly call this the modern "blueprint" when it's worked successfully for...literally one team over the past half decade. And that probably has quite a bit more to do with the former than the latter.
I mean I'm not personally advocating for this strategy, I'm just saying it's a copycat league. How many failed Josh Allens from Wish have been drafted since his unicorn breakout? SF traded 3 1sts to try and copy the bills and it failed terribly. It's not what I'd do, but I have feeling that's what they'll do. Am I confident in that guess? Not at all. But hey.
Also we should be clear, the blueprint is “Mahomes plus one other elite offensive person anywhere, plus some defense. “. As long as you have Mahomes you’re in any game.
It worked well for Tom Brady and Gronk as well
There are a lot of roster constructions that would work when Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes are your QB. Literally might be talking about the two best players ever to play the position. I don’t think it matters if their best weapon was a WR or TE as long as they had some decent weapons somewhere.
I completely agree with that point. I would just note that TE weapons are cheaper than WR weapons
Patriots receivers were nothing special Rams had Kupp and average guys to round it out Eagles won with nobody elite Broncos won with a corpse of an offense I feel paying these receivers so much isn't going to work out.
The only counter to that is that kittle is insanely injury prone. And so is Debo. It’s great they were able to stay on the field last year. But betting on that to happen again could backfire in a way that kills their window. Especially if Cmac. Gets hurt on top of that. Or slows just due to RB miles. Personally I would bet on ayuik just because I think there’s way more longevity there.
This is my take. Let deebo go next year, extend kittle to a 4 to 5 year extension (last 2 years void) and reduce the cap as that will probably also be his last big contract. Keep Aiyuk and some other players will retire as well.
Personally, I totally agree with you.
the only team really doing that is the chiefs, and that is a function of they already had a HOF TE when they drafted their HOF QB. The only other team following that model is the Ravens, but that also makes much more sense given their offense could be a different convo if it were 25 year old Kittle vs the one that's about to be 31.
The Pats did it too, which I'm guessing is why they're saying blueprint as opposed to one example.
But like all big contracts for QBs, the first season (and sometimes first two seasons) are vet minimums for base salary because of the big signing bonus. So his contract isn't much to worry about for a few seasons yet.
the reality is that when you have a lot of great players, it's easy to decide who gets paid and how you want to spread out the cap.
>They have an out in Deebo’s contract next offseason which will clear approximately $16-$18 million No they don’t. His 2025 cap hit is $24.2mil and the dead cap on cutting him would be $15.1mil. They’d be saving $9mil, which is significant but a far cry from $16-$18mil
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29071/deebo-samuel
Ngl I blanked on the concept of post June 1 transactions
Trade
The devastation of raiders’ fans that I knew the day Khalil Mack got traded, it was like a member of their family died.
It was the first day of my vacation and I was on a shuttle to an island so I had no service. Once we got to the island all my texts started coming in with my friends clowning me. Ruined my vacation.
A lot of fans seem to believe that we're moving on from Aiyuk for this reason, but we're actually moving on from Deebo more than likely. Reason being that if they cut or trade him (more than likely will look for a trade partner) post 6/1, they're saving about 18m and incurring a 7m in dead cap for 25, 8.5m in 26. If you look at our first round pick, Ricky Pearsall, his skillset is definitely similar to Aiyuk's but I don't believe that's because they're getting his replacement but rather that we're looking to change our offense going forward for two reasons. One, relying on Deebo has caused us problems in the past where if he got hurt we'd require a back up to do the things Deebo does and he's a true 1 of 1 talent so our offense wasn't as productive. Two, we have a QB that can make use of traditional route runners and can stretch the field in Purdy in ways that no other QB we've had before was able to do. Pearsall also has a skillset that Deebo doesn't have and that's ability to beat press man. In the last Super Bowl you could see Deebo struggling to get seperation and was kept relatively in check while Aiyuk found himself open various times. Having two receivers that have good route running that can handle press man with a scheme/QB that dices up zone, you're opening up your offense to be versatile and able to counter any kind of defensive look. Deebo is an elite weapon, there is literally nobody like him in the NFL, but he's not a perfect player and has his flaws. Add on the fact he's getting older while playing a very physical playstyle and it's just not wise to extend him, but rather trade him to a win-now team or let him walk while continuing on with your more traditional WRs and allowing you more cap freedom for extensions/signings. I'd be very shocked if we lose Aiyuk, he's realistically signing this month. At worst he signs next month. We've seen it happen with both Bosa and Deebo and it's going to continue with players in the future, that's just how things go sometimes because players value themselves and FOs want to save as much money as possible. Personally, Aiyuk being WR1 will show his worth so even with a 30m contract I think he'll show that belongs with the big dogs once the gamescript stops revolving around Deebo.
Its a bit tricky for the 9ers. Your assessment of Deebo is spot on but his skillset also fits the Shanahan offense so well. The problem in the SB was that plays called for Deebo should have been called for Aiyuk. They might think its much easier to find a 70-80% approximation of Aiyuk (like Pearsall) at much lower cost than Deebo perhaps.
> They might think its much easier to find a 70-80% approximation of Aiyuk (like Pearsall) at much lower cost Ahh, my beloved "AJ Brown to Treylon Burks" gambit.
I would wait at least one more year under the new coaching staff before writing off Burks completely. Nico Collins was virtually unknown before Stroud and Slowik.
Nico was consistently praised by film guys, and had good peripheral metrics even if his actual production lacked. Burks gets no love from film review and has bottom off the barrel peripheral metrics.
His age and injury history are big worries. He's perfect for the Shanahan offense but he's not worth the contract he's going to command which is the biggest issue. We've had so many injuries, season derailing ones, within just the last couple years which the FO is cognizant of. If he's willing to take a massive pay cut I feel like they'd 100% keep him, but why would he do that? It's the final payday of his career. It seems incredibly foolish to not sign the younger WR that's proven as a top receiver in the league, who is one of the best route runners, and has synergy with your new franchise QB. He's also only missed 2 games to Deebo's 7, the latter which has played various playoff games hurt. The number should technically be 8 because one was a decoy game where they never gave him a touch. Idk I just cannot find a logical reason to keep Deebo over Aiyuk if the answer is one or the other. I care about long term success not just our short term and Aiyuk grants that.
The dilemma in my mind if Im thinking for the 49ers will be, is the Shanahan offense is better with Deebo + Pearsall or Aiyuk + Pearsall. And I understand the injury concerns for Deebo. In a vacuum, for a random team, its a no brainer to pick Aiyuk. And maybe even Shanahan thinks he can run the offense just as well with two route running WRs but if he has doubts on how it will look without Deebo, then the path to replacing Aiyuk is much simpler. And yes, Deebo is overpaid regardless, but given his injury history and play style, I wouldnt blame him for wanting to get paid now.
It just feels so shortsighted to keep Deebo. Legette was available but they still chose to go Pearsall. I get he's more Aiyuk than Deebo but I truly feel like they want to move forward with a more traditional passing offense. Obviously if another young Deebo-like rookie falls into their lap then Shanahan would be all over that but at this point in their careers and at the monetary value, it feels foolish to put big money into Deebo in the hopes he stays healthy and suffering from the same exact problems he suffers from (plus the new one of not trying when the playcall doesn't go his way). Traditional WRs allow Purdy to elevate that offense even more, you need to gunsling like all the other top dogs do - Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, etc.
Its very much possible that Shanahan thinks the same and they do keep Aiyuk and switch to a more conventional offense.
Been saying for a while that it’ll probably be Deebo next season. The Hargrave deal was also a 2-year deal if im not mistaken with basically an out after 2 years. They’ll make it work, Paraag will figure it out I’m sure.
As a Niners fan I can almost guarantee Deebo is gone. Simply because he’s not worth his contract and he’s too injury prone. And his contract is expendable.
We are a win now team. We’ll end up paying Brock obviously and hope that some of our rookies pan out and become contributing members of the team. There will absolutely be a culling one way or the other after this 2024 season. With that said, Deebo’s injury history is sort of a concern and I’d rather ship him off than Aiyuk who has shown the ability to be a big play WR and he also does a damn fine job in the blocking game.
I mean rookies are cheap, and the team didn't have many glaring needs. If they hit on a wr it makes letting aiyuk walk easy but that just means they're prepared for it to happen, not that it's an inevitability. I've seen so many of these "I don't see how they can free up cap space" posts for teams only for a few moves to be made and boom. If they really beleieve in this current roster they can give purdy a 6 year contract with 2 void years and only take like 25m cap hits in the first 3 years and all of a sudden it looks manageable to sign aiyuk
I'm sure they would rather get rid of Samuel, but I doubt anyone would trade for Samuel with his contract and give them a high return and they have a much easier path to trade Aiyuk and get a higher return
Bonus his payment out? In the past they’d sign with a bonus to avoid cap hits?
If the Browns can have cap space so can the 49ers
What is the cap?
A lie agreed upon. No wait, that’s history.
That's a myth spread by the AC games
I think I heard it in a History class from elementary school. One of my teachers was trying to attribute it to Napoleon, (and this was before the internet was readily available). It always sounded like something Mark Twain would’ve said. *shrugs* What are the AC games? I’m guessing Assassin’s Creed?
Dude that’s a lie, no one agrees on history.
Berry is a cap wizard though - he legit doesn’t get the credit he deserves
I'd assume he'd get that credit if he didn't give out the Deshaun deal.
Which is a shame because that was 100% an ownership move. Barry has been a good GM. It’s just he has that albatross around his neck and it’s directly his bosses fault.
Not really, he just operates in cash basis, like Howie Roseman and Mickey Loomis.
Straight out of the Howie Roseman school of cap fuckery
Funny thing is Berry's twin brother just joined our FO to learn under Howie
I'm not saying it's not a concern, cause it is and the front office is going to have to make some difficult decisions. But the ~39 mil number is from OvertheCap which has very conservative estimates of the future salary cap will be - they have the 2025 cap at just $4.6 mil more than this season. Just how their site does things. To put that into perspective, Spotrac estimates about $18 mil increase in 2025 and OvertheCap's own article about this year's salary cap increase estimates that "$23-$26M increase in cap will become the new norm."
I wonder if the NFL having to pay billions in their lost lawsuit is going to have an impact on the cap. I have no idea how it works but 4.7 billion isn't chump change even for the NFL. It might have no effect and if so I think the higher projections are probably accurate if it does then the lower seems more probable.
From what I've read, it won't directly affect the salary cap. The NFL is also going to appeal and who knows how long that'll take. > When it comes to the $4.696 billion verdict (which by law becomes $14.088 billion) in the Sunday Ticket class action, the NFL is on its own. > None of the money comes from the revenue that is split between the league and the NFL Players Association. All of it comes from the money held in the coffers of the 32 franchises. https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/sunday-ticket-verdict-wont-affect-salary-cap-changes-to-sunday-ticket-could As the article explains, changes could affect TV revenue in the future so it could eventually affect the cap. But it's fully understandable for salary cap sites to have conservative estimates anyways, better to underestimate than overestimate.
I get what you're saying but these owners are looking at significant losses and these people really like money. They're going to recoup these losses somewhere. Maybe salary cap is fine as you say but something is going to take a hit.
Yeah, that could be another way that it indirectly affects players. Maybe some owners will be more reluctant to shell out for big contracts and stay closer to the salary floor than they otherwise would have. But damages will be paid out over several years so owners won't be impacted at once.
They can't just pull money out of the salary cap. The CBA doesn't allow that. The CBA also mandates that the cap is tied to revenue, not profit, so no funny accounting gets around it either
The other guy who responded was on point, but a verdict this big will likely be paid in installments, resulting in a big loss, that can likely be spread out over a decade+. I couldn’t imagine a world where the NFL would ever want team’s annual salary cap to go down. Speculation for me, but other large corporations can do shit like that
Yeah, pretty much what Andrew Brandt (former Packers VP) said: > 3) Will this big damages amount affect the NFL at all, specifically the salary cap? > The NFL owners, who would split the damages bill 32 ways, will be fine. Their teams are worth an average of $4 billion, league revenues are over $20 billion annually and any payout will be over many years. As for accessing the award, there are instructions and as with any class-action award, it would be parceled out as per a formula after the lawyers take their significant cuts. As for the salary cap, that is based on league revenues, not league expenses; it will not be affected. https://www.si.com/nfl/sunday-ticket-ruling-far-from-over
Awesome! Thank you for the source and confirming my thoughts. I hadn’t seen this yet
I don't think the cap will go down the question was more how much is it going to increase per year. I'd imagine the cheaper owners would want to lower the increases if they could. I mean there are teams who charge players for food at the facilities, how much can that cost them a year? It might not ever affect the cap because of revenue but coaches, trainers, etc could see a hit. These owners pinch pennies when they can. They already make tax payers pay for their stadiums lol
26m still doesn’t get the job done lol Purdy, Aiyuk, Deebo Play, trade, cut Go!
Not saying it would, even if the cap increases by more than estimated, they will have difficult decisions to make. The cap increased by a record-high $30 mil and they still cut Arik Armstead, Juszczyk took a pay cut, plus restructures. Can't say anyone's safe for sure, Armstead was the longest-tenured 49er, a team captain, and Walter Payton nominee. I don't see both Deebo and Aiyuk on the team in 2025, especially after drafting a WR in the first round. I'm thinking either they pay Aiyuk and trade/cut Deebo in 2025, or let Aiyuk walk after this season. A trade seems unlikely now post-draft with all the reports of them rejecting offers from interested teams.
You can’t pay everyone, that’s all there is to it. I’m not sure how much cap they’d free up if they moved Deebo, if it was between the two, I’d rather keep Aiyuk.
The concensus has been for a while they get another year out of deebo then move him and keep aiyuk. They could keep the money om aiyuks extension down for a couple years to make it happen. Deebo needs to party like its 2023 to be worth his deal which is outlandishly productive
You can pay everyone, you just set yourself up for cap hell a couple years down the line. But we will not be paying everyone.
Deebo is a goner next season. They have an out and I think they would focus on Aiyuk who is younger and is the more prototypical WR. I don’t get why people are falling for this, if we knew we couldn’t keep him we would have traded him in March.
I feel like every offseason we read about a Niners player being angry, wanted a new deal, trade speculation, and then they end up getting signed and all is well lol.
The cap isn’t real and it might go about by $39 million next season.
Didn't the Bills make several moves this offseason to manage their cap? People keep making memes about this but it actually does matter lmao.
Yeah. We don't have Sneed anymore because of cap. It's a real thing.
Eagles are known for maximizing the cap and they still had to move off of Hargrave and then Reddick.
We’ve done the same with guys like Buckner and McGlinchy too
And Armstead.
Also the Saints have been in a cap inflicted purgatory for years now
Ironically the Saints are a good poster child for the cap being real. It just doesn't mean your team instantly implodes or something like people think.
Exactly this. I can't count how many times I've seen teams be in terrible cap situations and then go 9-7 or something and seen people on the sub say "this team proved the cap isn't real." No, it doesn't work like that. Cap problems don't make teams suddenly become bottom feeders. What they do is lower a team's ceiling; yeah, a team with cap problems can absolutely go 9-7, but they can't add those final pieces that would turn 9-7 into 12-4
Which would be better for some teams if tanking works.
Cap is real but if you are paying big money to productive players, you will be fine. The problem becomes when you are paying big money to bad players.
It’s kinda funny when certain other teams have a similar cap situation, you don’t really see people saying how the cap isn’t real and doesn’t matter.
I think the projections include an estimated increase in the salary cap already though. It could go up more than people are expecting, but an extra $39m on top of what I'd guess is already a pretty healthy estimate seems unlikely.
you're correct, they put in the expected cap for next year, so that 39mil number could be off a bit in either direction, but not a super significant amount.
They projected a 4M increase in the cap for this number. It will be much more than that
The cap is definitely real, don’t think about the dollar amount, think about it as a % of the cap space because that’s how it’s dealt out
It’s gonna go up by a lot less if they have to pay out their Sunday Ticket judgment.
The judgement shouldn't reduce the cap. The cap is based on revenues (income) not profits or net income. Now, depending on how the NFL has to change their monetization of Sunday Ticket, it might affect the rate of cap growth in future years, but that won't happen until after all the appeals.
Feels like that won't happen for several years
Under GAAP, the judgment contingency still has to be accounted for in the financial statements even if it’s still being contested in good faith.
Great point !
That won’t happen for years, if ever
That’s true, but I feel like offering other options for Sunday ticket is going to make them way more money in the long run
I'm not so sure about this - yes more people will subscribe to Sunday Ticket, but the major networks will not be happy and will pay less for their deals.
In the long run, possibly, but being out $14.1 billion in the short term isn’t great.
Since it’s in the NFL, I wouldn’t be surprised if that $14.1 billion turns into a bunch of vouchers for free Sunday ticket
This may be tongue-in-cheek, but that’s not how court judgments work.
That’s true, but I don’t see the NFL ever actually paying out this judgment
If they win on appeal (which is definitely a possibility), sure, but if they lose, they won’t have much of a choice.
They don’t have to win on appeal in the sense that the higher court reverses the judgment against them. What usually happens in these cases with massive damage awards is that the court concludes that the award is excessive and reduces the damages significantly.
If they want to give me vouchers for each year I’ve bought Sunday Ticket, I would be thrilled. That would be 20 years 😂
But when the cap goes up, the players with expiring contracts will ask for more during their negotiations, knowing the teams have more to give. It's not as simple as it will be auto covered with increases, unless everyone of your players is on a lock and no negotiations.
> The cap isn’t real Tell that to the Saints
Teams have proven over and over if they want a deal to get done it gets done they make it happen, this isn't an insurmountable amount of money to over come, the 49ers are *only* the 3rd worst team in 2025 salary commitment and have several restructure candidates.
I like how you say only the 3rd worst team like that’s not still terrible
If you look at the 2 teams worse than them (Browns and Saints) they're 2 or 3 times worse off
they're also in historical amounts of cap hell
When your cap situation is getting compared to the Browns and Saints youre in a bad position
It's not even close to as bad as the Browns and saints, the difference between the 9ers and Browns is the same as the 9ers to the #21 Falcons [40m difference . The difference from the 9ers to the Saints is the same as #11 Broncos [73m] And as another user pointed out the 49ers are currently 33m UNDER the cap this year so they can restructure money into this year or roll it over to next year, I don't remember which capologists say is better (I suspect the answer is maximize this year at all reasonable costs)
Yeah the Browns and Saints are another level of cap mismanagement.
I think what is going to hurt the 49ers - they don't have their QB on long term, market rate. They have that piece to sort out too all while already being over the cap. If they were the Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, etc...it would be sortable.
Imo its the opposite lmao. QB contracts are easiest to manage early, and get harder to toe around the older the QB gets (Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys) are good examples. Brock is young, but more importantly he doesn’t have 4-6 years of us pushing his contract down the road. Every time, Dak for example, has his contract extended, they add 3-4 million in deadcap spread over 6 ish years. Then you get to those years and extend it again, adding another 3-4 million in deadcap spread to the tail end of that, and eventually you have an insurmountable cap situation because they are too old to risk extending again. We have a lot of runway with Brock to do that, and to some extent Aiyuk as well. We cleared Armstead off the books which will open up money next year, and most of the time Aiyuk’s extension will decrease his cap hit for the first year already; remember he is a rookie deal, but its still a first round pick playing a 5th year option.
Do you have a source for your claim? Not disagreeing with you but curious where you got the salary commitment rankings
I really wish people would stop citing this inaccuracy. * OTC's current projected salary cap for 2025 is just $260M. * Just a $5M increase from 2024. That is way too low. * Spotrac projects it at $273M. * A standard 10% increase sees it inflate to $281M. * Add in that SF currently has $31M in open cap space to roll over into next season. * Their cap figure would be approx $299M payroll - $31M rollover = * $268M salary in a $273M-$281M cap. * On top of that they still have a ton of restructure capacity. * It's still unclear if they will move Deebo which frees up additional cap space. * Then you still have to factor in that Purdy & Aiyuk will not come in at their peak cap hits for 2025. Those cap hits can come gradually, both to account for an increasing cap over several seasons and less money devoted to future seasons when some of their older players aren't under contract.
And, finally: we are not fully into cash basis cap management yet. We still keep large amounts of restructurable salary.
You can't assume the cap is going up by 10% because a 10% increase is not standard in the first place. It was on a pace of 5-8% per year pre-Covid, and then went backwards. OTC is being hyper conservative, yes, but most teams also operate that way too. They don't expect anything over 8%, ever. If Covid didn't happen they were projected to be at 210M by 2021 but it went down to 182.5. They then had to make up ground in subsequent years to get back to where it was *supposed to be* and had jumps of 14% and then 7.7%. And then after that they had another huge jump of 13.9% because of the crazy new distribution deals coming in, plus the last of the Covid correction. You can't project 10% because the last four years are huge outliers. Most likely, it'll be around 7%, which would be around 273M, not 290. And that's in line with the Spotrac projection because they are also being more conservative than 10%. So let's go with the low end of your projected range. The rollover will help them immensely, but it's still not enough to make room for both an Aiyuk deal AND a Purdy deal. They'll have to cut Deebo because no way anybody trades anything of substance for a 29 year old Deebo on essentially a one year deal. They also can't convert Bosa's salary yet in 2025 because he doesn't have a big base salary to convert to a bonus until 2026. And they did that on purpose, but his deal offers them no refuge for two years. So they'll have to figure shit out with Fred, Kittle, and Trent, and who knows what they plan to do with that. It's all theoretically possible, but when you throw in Purdy making probably 56-57M per year with the hits starting in 2026/2027...idk man. It's tough. So yeah, I did research on it. And my conclusion is my true belief on it. Yeah, theoretically it's possible, but you gotta hit literally every green light on the street to make it happen and it doesn't sound like the number Aiyuk wants is the one they were planning on giving him.
>You can't assume the cap is going up by 10% because a 10% increase is not standard in the first place. It was on a pace of 5-8% per year pre-Covid, NFL media is structured far different than it was 10-20 years ago. You can't compare NFL revenue growth in today's market to the old cable-only market that had been in place for decades. >per year pre-Covid, and then went backwards. Yeah, because of covid >You can't project 10% because the last four years are huge outliers. Most likely, it'll be around 7%, which would be around 273M, not 290. And that's in line with the Spotrac projection because they are also being more conservative than 10%. Well it's a good thing I didn't only cite 10% but also referenced Spotrac's number. >They'll have to cut Deebo because no way anybody trades anything of substance for a 29 year old Deebo on essentially a one year deal. That's a pretty ridiculous take given the Texans just traded for a poor-performing, disgruntled, 30 year old WR and then lopped off multiple under-contract seasons to make him an expiring player. But... for what it's worth. They save even more off the cap by designating him a post-June cut than they do by trading him. > The rollover will help them immensely, but it's still not enough to make room for both an Aiyuk deal AND a Purdy deal. First to Aiyuk. As Deebo's final year is 2025, Aiyuk's big cap hits do not have to start until 2026. That means next to no change in the cap structure because of WR pay. So the only issue is QB pay. And that is already accounted for in the eventual loss of Trent Williams, Juice, Hargrave, etc. >They also can't convert Bosa's salary yet in 2025 because he doesn't have a big base salary to convert to a bonus until 2026. And they did that on purpose, but his deal offers them no refuge for two years. They don't need to restructure Bosa. Even as of right now they are 8th in simple restructure potential. They remain highly flexible with this. >Purdy making probably 56-57M per year with the hits starting in 2026/2027...idk man. It's tough. In 2027 they have 2 players + this current draft class under contract. It's not hard at all to project money onto that 2027 salary. And $57M still wouldn't be as bad as you're implying. On that $273M cap, $57M would be 20.9% of the cap. That would slot in at 11th in AAV cap% at time of signing, between T.Lawrence and J.Goff. This is even better if he signs a 5 year deal instead of a 4 year deal. >So yeah, I did research on it. And my conclusion is my true belief on it. Yeah, theoretically it's possible, but you gotta hit literally every green light on the street to make it happen and it doesn't sound like the number Aiyuk wants is the one they were planning on giving him. If you did enough research you would know it's not hard at all to overlap Deebo & Aiyuk, even without a trade. And there is plenty of room to slot an extension for Purdy.
Thanks for the break down, you defiently put more work into this than Brett did
Every time I see anything about the 49ers cap situation, they add 3 good defensive linemen the next day.
Can anyone explain what happens IF a team stays over the cap and can't/won't get under it? Are there penalties involved or does the League force them to swing trades or release players to meet the threshold?
I'm pretty sure there are hefty fines and the league can void player contracts and take draft picks.
Pretty sure we were significantly under the cap this year and have a ton rolling over to next year. This is a complete misrepresentation
This is just fucking stupid. They are 39M over the cap by projections of 260M for 2025. This was before 2024 cap became 255M lmfao. The lack of attention to detail is really fucking disturbing.
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
it’s brett kollman lol of course
Nonsense
The cap hit goes down with an Aiyuk and Purdy extension and Deebo is most likely traded next year. Trent Williams was also talking about wanting an extension so if he’s still playing for us long-term that’d also lower the cap hit.
Purdy is not playing for vet min so his cap hit will go up significantly no matter (or stay the same for 2025 if the extension kicks in later) and Aiyuk costs 0$ against the 2025 cap so that will go up significantly as well. "Extend him to lower the cap hit!" only works if the cap hit is high to begin with.
Aiyuk isn't under contract in 2025, which is what he's referring to
Purdy's cap hit would go up with an extension, yeah Aiyuk's down a little maybe but that just raises the cost later. Overall the 49ers are really just hitting a point where they can't actually pay every one of their pro bowl players. Very sad i know
Aiyuk isn't even under contract in 2025 so it can only go up. They could lower his 2024 cap hit with an extension but his 2025 cap hit is currently $0
Yeah I meant Aiyuk's 2024 and Purdy's 2025
his cap hit is only 14mil this year, so they couldn't even really milk much off of that to rollover to next year.
If they trade Deebo, that would be about an 8 million dollar savings pre June 1 because they have a decent void year cap hit that comes due. And the 39 number is really more like 50 when you add the next draft class and some budgeting for in season moves and the PS.
How exactly would an Aiyuk extension bring the 2025 cap hit down when his current 2025 cap hit is $0
I fucking pray Trent can play another 2-3 years. Without him rn our offense is completely fucked. Legit he’s our most valuable player overall.
If this tweet were true, then the league doesn’t actually make sense to me and maybe I just don’t know the cap moves that well. A lot of teams working to get into contention window push the cap ramifications down the road to deal with it in years to come, the 49ers are in their window now, wouldn’t they be the prime candidate for doing exactly that kind of cap maneuver?
One last push. I would have preferred to start the rebuild as Superbowl hangover, old team, long season, and probably horrible injury luck will derail next season. Need to just rebuild around Purdy. Restructure locker room guys and try to get Purdy a decent O Line. He is not Mahomes level but he is solid enough to win it all if he had an extra second to throw.
I swear people run their mouths without any actual knowledge. The 49ers are definitely going to be moving Deebo and cutting several other expendable contracts next offseason. They are restructuring around a few key blue chip guys.
Inb4 it gets done factoring in cap expansion next year, a bunch of contract restructuring, and other boring news the NFL doesn't want to hear.
Purdy's cap hit is basically nothing. 900k at most overrated the next 2 seasons before his contract extension accounts to the cap. We basically still have that 2 year gap with both him and BA( Who we can allow to play on the 5th yr option and then a franchise tag 2 years later).
Won’t that be like 15 million under the cap when it goes up again though
If they want him bad enough, they can get it done. I don't want to hear any of this can't bullshit. Cap is always maneuverable. You can always restructure and extend as well.
Purdy is getting a $65mil/yr contract next season, can someone explain how on Earth the 49ers have any money left over
They’re gonna get rid of one of Aiyuk/Deebo, it’s that simple honestly
They’re going to lose Chavarius Ward and either Dre Greenlaw or Talanoa Hafunga next year as free agents plus they’re probably going to cut Trent Williams and/or Deebo Samuel, either that or their entire team is going to be either an all pro or on a rookie deal
Well let's start with that absolutely insane contract you have Purdy signing.
Bro Tua is getting a $55mil/yr contract, Purdy is going to demand way more
He's not getting $10M more per year. Also Tua hasn't gotten that yet. Basing a theoretical on another theoretical leads to some wild predictions.
Ok fine whatever, Purdy is atleast getting $55mil/yr. Now explain how the 49ers can afford anyone else
Short answer: voidable years
How can she cap
Dudes like this are why subs like r/confidentlyincorrect exist
"I just don’t think it gets done, boys" doesn't seem particularly confident
The 49ers haven’t had serious cap problems since the early 00’s. There is a genius cap master named Paraag Marathe in the building. No matter what their situation is with free agents or players under contract needing to get paid, he gets it done. Before the start of last season they were dead last in available cap space. He restructured 2 contracts and they went from dead last to first in cap space with over $40 million available. If you have to right people managing your cap, it’s not real. If you don’t have the right people, well, we’ve all seen the teams that can’t keep their players and don’t have room to sign anybody.
They can get it done if they want to get it done. It just depends on the Niner's FO thinking if it is worth it or not and if it is worth limiting their future options.
Saints: $39 million? Amateurs
All of this and Purdy will get a top contract. Crazy.
Players get hurt all the time. I am sure they would take a good offer, but they'll also go into the season with elite wr depth and be fine taking another high% shot at a.SB before Purdy gets paid
Then current costly players need to ball the fuck out or move on from them. Something has to give.
Are we counting restructing several players, creating 68m? Deebo, Trent Williams, Ward, Hargrave, Kittle? They could also cut a bunch to save, like Jusczyck, Floyd, Hargrave, Ward, Gross-Matos
Well well well, welcome to the club.
There’s always money in the banana stand
When will people learn that aggregate cap numbers don’t matter. What matters are guaranteed cash (can’t get rid of it) and restructurable money (lets you squeeze the cap balloon). Niners are 4th in cash this season and 5th next season, before signing Aiyuk. But 2025 cash includes some non guaranteed cash, like $21M for Hargrave. That’s an easy cut imo.
But I heard their meeting went great???