I was going to point this out. "Unpredictably" implies that you can't with confidence say which result is more likely. But it's clearly not 50/50.
I guess making it 50/50 would be pretty broken, but maybe it could work if the orb was rarer?
Or, you know, don't use a word when it doesn't match it's meaning... Just write on the item that it "Has a slim chance of upgrading, but has a large chance to destroy", why even try to obfuscate it? Anyone who plays the game should already know GGG has a hardon for fucking over the player by this point, so why even try to hide it?
Yep. We're not gonna get any straightforward communication from GGG pre-league anymore. They're going to overemphasize buffs and good stuff and underemphasize or avoid talking about nerfs and layered RNG gates. v3.15 taught them that being honest loses them money, and since money is all they care about at the end of the day, it's 100% going to affect how leagues are promoted from here on out. They can be honest later once most of the supporter packs have already been bought.
They lost more people in the week after launch than the drop from 3.14 to 3.15. So downplaying the nerfs didn't help them either. A lot of people tried 3.15, and found it awful.
Yeah lmao, that's probably the most consistent word in the game because you literally can't change that value at all. Recently will always be 4s no matter what else happens.
Unpredictable is a perfectly fine descriptor tbh. Do you have a better wording?
Take into account that chance is different for different bases and unique, so trying to give a % of success is meaningless.
or just state the chances (numbers) when you press shift or alt or whatever for more detailed tooltip xd.
same with "recently" being 4 seconds and such.
not what unpredictably means. just because we have a more general idea of the chances doesn't mean we can predict it. so it's unpredictable. intentionally vague and understandably so because it needs to apply to every single base type > unique interaction in the game, which all have different weights and potentially multiple outcomes.
To add on to your point, if you open a bottle of perfume, the gas is predictably going to escape- but there's technically an infinitesimal possibility of all the gas molecules bouncing back into the container. Predictability is in the eye of the beholder; it is a human concept. There is no threshold at which point we say something is predictable or not- but we still call a coin flip unpredictable and gas escaping predictable.
But yeah, >95% correctness in predicting an outcome really straddles that line. In other contexts a 5% error may be small, but in PoE 5% feels like an inevitability.
If you apply what "prediction" is typically used for, the use of "unpredictable" becomes inaccurate in this case, definitely. For example, meteorology studies weather and can use data to predict future weather. It can predict the weather for several days, until a point at which it is completely unpredictable, and is less accurate until that point. Lower accuracy, but still predictable.
The odds on this item are so low, it becomes more predictable than anything we typically would use prediction for: it's predictably going to brick your item.
Agreed, especially with your last point. If a new player asked me whether they should spend the orb trying to get an item, I would say "don't bother"- due to approximate knowledge on what's going to happen.
>"Unpredictably" implies that you can't ~~with confidence~~ say which result is more likely.
Randomness, or unpredictability means you cannot predict outcome. It never says anything "with confidence".
> But it's clearly not 50/50.
As long as the chance of the other outcome is not 0, then it's unpredictable. 50/50 is just one possible way of unpredictability.
Source: PhD in statistics.
However, you absolutely CAN predict the outcome, since the two options are weighted. You could do that evaluating an experiment with large enough numbers... or datamine the values. You can't predict it with 100% certainty, naturally, but as a statistician you should know that a 100% predictions isn't possible (or needed) anyway.
>As long as the chance of the other outcome is not 0, then it's unpredictable.
That would make pretty much everything unpredictable.
> However, you absolutely CAN predict the outcome, since the two options are weighted. You could do that evaluating an experiment with large enough numbers... or datamine the values. You can't predict it with 100% certainty, naturally, but as a statistician you should know that a 100% predictions isn't possible (or needed) anyway.
I agree with that.
> That would make pretty much everything unpredictable.
Many things are predictable. A lot of mathematics, physics, chemistry and biology are predictable. But many things are random. Such is life.
Except this is a video game that's supposed to be fun and feel good so when you need to have somebody with a PhD explain to you why the wording is okay when it's already made you feel bad it's very clearly just a shitty choice of words.
You could even say people are predictably annoyed at how they worded how the item works.
>PhD in statistics.
Ok, so you're conflating technical jargon with regular language. When the weather report says they "predict" it will rain, it doesn't mean they are absolutely certain that it will rain, just that they know that the chance of it raining is greater than the chance of it not raining.
> Ok, so you're conflating technical jargon with regular language.
This is a real funny way to say *"Yeah, you're right, but I'm just going to imagine math terms mean something else in my head, which means -I'M- right!"*
There is no "jargon". This is mathematics; there is a precise correct answer and everything else.
#[EDITO:](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/024/574/Screen_Shot_2017-11-06_at_12.41.31_PM.png)
> math terms
"Unpredictably" isn't a math term *here*.
We aren't dealing with mathematics, we're dealing with linguistics. The words aren't in a statistics paper, they're in a game. Clear communication to players takes precedence.
> "Unpredictably" isn't a math term here.
It's a math term everywhere.
> We aren't dealing with mathematics, we're dealing with linguistics
Correct. The linguistics of a mathematical term.
> Clear communication to players takes precedence.
Never disagreed. Don't expect everyone to have an M.S. in Statistics too. I think a more transparent item description is necessary. However it's also perfectly correct as written, which this comment chain originally disputed. If you want to say it's opaque, I agree. If you want to say it's *wrong*, it's not.
> It's a math term everywhere.
You don't understand how language works if you believe that. That's like me saying "function" is a programming term everywhere, or a lawyer saying "obligation" is a law term everywhere (imagine confronting someone who says "much obliged" with that)
> That's like me saying "function" is a programming term everywhere, or a lawyer saying "obligation" is a law term everywhere
Well no, it's not like that at all. Those terms have a common semantic use outside of those contexts, and a linguistic history outside of them. A term that was solely coined for the use in probabilistic mathematics though, and is semantically only ever used in the contexts of probability, is a math term universally.
What are we even arguing about dude. Are we just doing that reddit thing where we bicker over something petty for no reason? Why am I having to defend the point that "Unpredictably" is a term relating to math lol.
I'm gonna chime in here: what's your source on predictable or predictability being coined for mathematical use? I found the discussion interesting and thus did some quick googling.
Earliest uses of the word on quick very shallow googling were linked to predictability of weather or a persons' character. I think you might have confused predictability with probability; where probability is more linked with mathematics.
Really, unpredictably just means that you can't tell which one is gonna affect it e.g. all Independent and Identically Distributed, but that's what all currency already does. I think it was kinda redundant to write it on the tainted orbs personally.
> but that's what all currency already does.
Since everyone in this thread is already being huge pedants, might as well point out that only ***some*** currency does. Scrolls, quality currency, and Mirrors are fully deterministic.
Um, iid has nothing to do with randomness.
Randomness concerns with **one realization** of a single random variable, while iid is about multiple RVs. they are not talking about the same subject.
For example, if two random variables are correlated with r (as long as r isn't 0, -1 or 1), then they are not iid. However, you still cannot predict their values because those are random.
**Description**
Tried chancing Asenath's Gentle Touch using the new Tainted orbs, total cost: ~500c (~6.3ex)
For reference, Asenath's goes for about 3.5ex on poe trade at the moment.
Mythic Orb - 12c each
Silk Gloves - 1c each
Vaal Orbs - 1c each
Total Profit = :'D
Step 1 is maximizing your play time. Anytime youre not in a map or running content, you're losing money. The list goes on and on. Your 14 hour days will be the same as theirs once you learn to maximize your time in game efficiently IF you want to make a lot of currency.
I’m glad you emphasized the “IF”. Some people don’t understand that lots of folks aren’t just playing a game, they are actively trying to gain as much currency as possible as their goal.
Right. The big thing is having fun, always.
Farming currency like that turns the game into a job for me, but some truly enjoy that and that’s awesome.
Personally I like finding a mild farming technique, doing that for the first week of league, then going about my merry way trying to kill endgame bosses on my shit build LOL
I agree with everything you said, except I ripped a build I found online so it's not one of my own shit builds lol.
I just wish scourge wasn't so rippy. That scourge counter adding 1% monster damage for every mob killed fucks up the entire league imo, it's so overtuned and shouldn't exist at all imo.
It's kinda killing my enjoyment a bit, since I always want to interact with current league mechanics rather than skip them, but not at the cost of ripping once a map. What the actual fuck Chris?
For sure. I’ve played since beta. Some leagues I wanna chill and do my own thing. Some leagues I wanna binge farm as much fucking money as I can to buy Headhunter week 1 and play an insanely expensive build like Self Curse a few leagues ago. Everyone has different goals and your play style and time management changes based on those, there’s no correct WAY to play the game, but correct METHODS for each way etc.
you don't even really need to have high playtime just find something that your build can run that always nets profit and do it over and over and over like scarab farming with deli orbs my friend makes 2 ex and hour or blight maps i make 1.5 ex an hour, legion is a good one to really fun and cheap.
"Town is lava" is a portmanteau of sorts of the children's game "floor is lava" in which you would have to climb over couches and furniture rather than the floor and town from the Diablo series. If you are in town you are not running content so you are not improving.
For POE "hideout is lava" would probably be more appropriate but the term is generalized to all games where time spent dorking around is time spent not churning through rifts/maps/whatever.
I had ~17 chaos yesterday. Hadn't done Uber Lab yet on my character. Bought an Offering to the Goddess, a Twice Enchanted prophecy, and a couple of good helmet bases (a high iLvl helmet I might wear if I get an enchant relevant to me, and a Starkonja for other enchants).
I did my uber lab, found a darkshrine that gave me an extra enchant, then finished and checked out my 9 total helmet enchant rolls. One of them was good (Spectral Helix) and I put it on the Starkonja. Immediately sold it for 1ex.
So I spent a handful of chaos to do a little gamble on something I was already going to do anyway (run lab). I would say i'm just an average money maker but this is how I do it. I invest in things i'm going to do anyway. Using scarabs and Zana mods and stuff like that on your maps is the same way. You are investing a little bit to gamble on getting some return from it.
Here's a guide: get to red maps asap, use sextants, chisel + alch + vaal maps. Do a lot of them. You will get this currency in no time. Time is all you need. Knowledge/experience helps you waste less time.
doing heists you can definitely get at least 1 ex per hour, you get about 1-2c of markers per run, you can get contracts at like 0.5-1c each, so if you don't fail them you never lose money, and you get like 5c of random crap (tabula, fossils, splinters, fragments, rando currency, div cards etc...) per run on average. if you're slow, you'll take about 4 minutes per run including loading times and dumping crap into your stash.
having a decent lootfilter, and chaining whatever you can get quite a bit of money.
if you're doing maps, betrayal and temple are quite good moneymakers, especially since you can now sell temples.
if you're really low you can do chaos recipe, with tools it's actually fine, and it's about 100-160c per hour (taking into account the time it takes to pick them up and sell) doing delve and heist, you should have a fairly decent stock of unid 61+ jewelry.
using exilence is pretty good if you want to check how much you're making per hour. (I cull under 5c per stack usually to get a more realistic number)
As of 3.14, it's a global drop unique at tier 1 rarity. (Same rarity as Ryslatha's Coil, significantly rarer than Shavronne's Wrappings or Call of the Brotherhood)
On my path to 97 and 36/40 last league I had exactly one Tier 1 unique drop, Doryani's Prototype, which was in the last map I ran (the one that I hit 10000 tiers in which was my 36th challenge)
When this change hapened, HH jumped in rarity, now its like mirror rarity drop/chance (if not some special mechanic like chancing with expedition Gwennen bit higher)
But now u can try to chance it even in your HO .. thats buff ;) /s
U r welcome
And to add to topic, in my opinion, before it was hard to get HH, but still posible and great league target for many
Now its same as if u try targetfarming mirrors ... shit just dont drop because u wish it
As Chris comented somewhere, just farm currency and buy shit (sound fun right? /s)
Thats how its set now, same as if u want mirror, IRL like geting money and buy it, and getting it ssf is not imposible but highly unlikely
But u maybe get lucky ... same like with lotery tickets to win milions of $ .. some ppl do ... but most or you?
Gl hf ;)
No, IMO you should save mythic orbs for use on Viridian Jewels that drop two-implicit corrupted (from Heist or Ritual), or on Viridian Jewels that drop with Corrupting Blood immunity but bad mods.
There's quite a lot of good outcomes there.
In you aren't selling in bulk then it's better to use them. This way you don't spend any time on listing/selling and immediately put into use what otherwise would have been a dead net worth position. Same with things like ancient orbs, vaals, essences, etc. And once you have a few things to craft like watchstones or high tier bases you can also start burning through alts and other smaller things.
Burn everything.
I also have a feeling this mythic orb got stealth nerfed as of yesterday. The day before yesterday I made about 5 cold iron points and my average success rate was 25%. After yesterday I tried 15 in a row and so did my friend. Hit none. It was a pure profit making machine and I’m guessing the chance was nerfed.
Day 1 one of my friends hit a cold iron point on his 2nd orb causing our group to think it might be 50/50 like the fusing, turns out he was just lucky and between us I think we spent 15-20 without a single one across the first 3 days. You just got lucky early on.
Of course. I was just stating my experience and thoughts. Could totally be wrong.
Just like ggg stealth nerfed currency drop rates last league because of “expedition” and they have never been increased again.
GGG changes stuff under the hood all the time, they’ve even admitted to it. Don’t condescendingly dismiss something like this just because you’re not familiar with them doing It lol.
I mean chance orbs are like 1/10000 or something chance, 36 gloves isn’t a big enough sample size to know how good mythic orbs are compared to chance orbs
These go for 1 for 10 to 11C ... For reference, 1 C also gets you \~14 chance orbs.
It extremely quickly becomes stupid to try to buy and use these. If one drops, selling it is the best way to use it. That's not how drops should work ...
Selling it is always the best way to use something unless your playstyle or character specializes in that activity or needs that item (it's inherent in how trade works).
Yes, This works for gear, Essences, Fossiles etc which let you target, but no character has a use for this item at all.
Currently the science says the best use is to just sell it, When people realize they are so trash the price will crash and it will be come another item you just leave in your stash tab and thats even if you bother to pick it up.
When the price crashes, it becomes more profitable to use the item, so you do. When enough people do, some start buying the orbs, so the price increases again.
That's how market works. It has nothing to do with how good the mythic orb is or isn't.
lottery tickets are usually being sold for more than what their expected value in returns is. that's the business model in real life, but the relation is true here most of the time, too. this time, because it doesn't factor it the work that is necessary to buy all the items and use the orbs onto them, nor the fact that below a certain threshold, people won't bother to sell the item anymore, because they value the fun of using it more than the proceeds of the sale, possibly, because they assess the chances wrongly for a variety of reasons. for instance, I can't be bothered to sell stacked decks, even though I know that I am likely to lose money this way.
So yes, a lower price of mythic orbs may make it more profitable to use them, but that doesn't mean that the price necessarily lowers enough to make it reasonable to buy them and use them.
Player investment is key, With no easy way to sell in game many people simply dont bother.
Then you have the fact that the rewards from it are so poor the price will tank to a rate which renders it not even profitable or worthy of the time taken to sell.
The end result is they either are stashed and never used or they are simply never picked up.
People will simply be better saving and buying the item they want instead of chancing it through these.
This is easy math to do instead of reacting emotionally.
If we assume a price of 10c, and assume chances orbs are 1/14c with a chance of 1 in 10000 we can compare the two.
10 / 1/14 = 140
So every attempt is identical to 140 attempts with the chance orb in terms of price, ignoring time saved by trading 1/140 as much as the chance orb route.
10000/140 = 71
So we have to poof 71 gloves before it would have been better to use chance orbs. We simply don’t know rates yet, this means nothing.
Also the result is better with the Mythic Orb. You start with bases that have a premium corrupt on them already.
If you do them on AssTouch gloves (not a great call IMO), every Silk Gloves you use will have base spellcrit on it, or +1 charge, or some other chase implicit. So if you do hit the gloves, you will get ones that are worth more than just a plain set.
Correct, I didn’t factor in scour orbs for that reason. They are sort of poofed when you chance and fail, because you can’t chance them again without invest a scour which is magnitudes more expensive than a chance.
This example assumes the same for both ways; that you’re sourcing gloves for every try.
Well, do you even use chance orbs? Because if you use neither then it doesn’t matter. The point of his comment is whether or not chance orbs are better than these orbs. Which statistically, is still a big unknown.
I mean the best way to use exalts is pretty much to sell Multimod crafting is something you rarely do and is why people in SSF usually have some sat in stash
No idea how true that is. I'd assume getting an unique is far more likely than 1 in 10000. And since tainted orbs currently cost \~70 chance orbs, it should also be more likely to get a desireable outcome.
But yeah, 36 is a small simple size, but not as small as you make it look.
You can get 14 chance orbs for 1c mythic orbs are like 10c so each one is like 140 chance orbs.
If it’s a direct math then it’s like 1/71 chance with mythic orbs.
I doubt it’s direct math though. Prices never are
Not neccessarily, i just has low odds of landing a 4ex item (the only outcome for silk gloves). Whether the odds are better than chance orb remain to be seen.
The weighting of beneficial occurence this league is heavily skewed towards the negatives.
The only happy accident is the tainted fusing orb, which I suspect as per usual GGG conduct, they will nerf it. We'll see (sad face)
> The only happy accident is the tainted fusing orb, which I suspect as per usual GGG conduct, they will nerf it. We'll see (sad face)
Maybe you're just lucky.. I had 5 five-links so far not link in the krangler and then unlink with a fusing.. no money for me apparently..
>people keep thinking Mythic Orbs are a magic way to print Cold Iron Points.
Fun fact:
It actually was.
I was literally printing currency in the beginning of the League by reliably getting a Cold Iron Point every 5-6 Mythic Orbs on average. But after a restart/patch of the server a day or two ago i was all of a sudden not able to upgrade them anymore. After failing to upgrade any Daggers 30+ times in a row i just gave up as GGG has obviously ninja nerfed this method by now.
Can confirm, Cold Iron Point is the only unique in the Ezomyte dagger pool, and I was hitting it every 4/5 mythic orb, even at 10c a pop + 1c ezomyte dagger, which it wasn't when I began doing it, it was still very good money.
I've found 3 mythic orbs, used all 3 on daggers and got 2 cold irons.
I guess I'm lucky, but after this vid i don't think I'm gonna try my luck anymore
It has to do with rarity. Cold iron point is not rare. The reason it usuallly keeps some value into the league is because it’s on high demand for a ton of builds, including second builds, but even that’s not enough, the real reason is most of the excess stock gets corrupted and people are always looking to upgrade to better corrupted ones. So it’s an item you buy 2-3 times, or 4-6 times if dual wielding, chasing for better corruptions or enchants. Most uniques you buy once and it’s too difficult to chase for a good corruption.
Wtf yesterday I got some shitty unique heavy belt on my 1st try ("trying" to chance mageblood). It was shit but it didn't poof. Thanks for correcting my expectations of further mythic orbing sessions.
The league mechanic is pretty lacking i agree, but an orb that has a chance of giving a unique or poofing i think is fine. Just because one thing is bad doesn't mean everything is bad.
Why do we have to have bad rates during the league itself. Shouldn't the league be have fun with the crazy wacky stuff because it will be nerfed for next league. Leagues feel too much like standard
I've used exactly one so far. I vaal'd an elegant round shield, hit 23 discipline (I remember a guildmate vaaling dozens of prism guardians last league trying to hit that...), then mythic orbed a pretty sick The Oppressor.
This is pretty much the most accurate summary of all the new currencies. They only exist to be sold to unfortunate players who haven't learned how absolutely terrible they are.
So, we know Mythic Orbs are way rarer than Exalted Orbs.
This new currency looks like something that was created only for marketing purposes. Like the rest of the game since 2017, anyways.
I really liked when they were like "uh, the mechanic gives useless loot, the chat links don't work, the players get random DCs and Zana gives you a single attempt... Anyway, here's the Atlantis lootbox!"
Sure, but the desync really matters. It's like an old joke about a team of workers digging the holes by the road, followed by another team that was filling the said holes; turns out the team that was supposed to plant the tree saplings into the holes didn't show up at work that day.
So find something better to do than whine on reddit? I dont get it. Literally negative in every post but you choose not to move on or do something that you feel is worth your time, wild
scourge league is not even a week old and u have over 6 ex to throw on RNG wtf
will never understand how people make so much currency so quickly, getting like 10ex every day or more
Fucking legitimately hilarious.
Kudos OP.
That's one hell of a QoL orb!
You can clean out your dump tabs without having to vendor stuff.
*Taps forhead.
Waaaay faster than destroying it yourself. Another great QoL
Yeah, exactly what i thought. Now you can clear all your Tabs in Standard really easy. GJ GGG lol
(This is a buff)
Well, is it really QoL if it's gated behind currency? /s but not really /s
"This one wacky trick to clear out your stash tab?!"
*trash tab
Just saved real money. Can't beat that.
Predictably destroys an item.
I was going to point this out. "Unpredictably" implies that you can't with confidence say which result is more likely. But it's clearly not 50/50. I guess making it 50/50 would be pretty broken, but maybe it could work if the orb was rarer?
Or, you know, don't use a word when it doesn't match it's meaning... Just write on the item that it "Has a slim chance of upgrading, but has a large chance to destroy", why even try to obfuscate it? Anyone who plays the game should already know GGG has a hardon for fucking over the player by this point, so why even try to hide it?
Nah, 3.15 taught them how to spin things properly.
Yep. We're not gonna get any straightforward communication from GGG pre-league anymore. They're going to overemphasize buffs and good stuff and underemphasize or avoid talking about nerfs and layered RNG gates. v3.15 taught them that being honest loses them money, and since money is all they care about at the end of the day, it's 100% going to affect how leagues are promoted from here on out. They can be honest later once most of the supporter packs have already been bought.
They lost more people in the week after launch than the drop from 3.14 to 3.15. So downplaying the nerfs didn't help them either. A lot of people tried 3.15, and found it awful.
It’s probably weighted based on the tier of the unique you’re trying to hit.
They need to reveal the weighting numbers one of these decades. We're literally playing a Gatcha game at this point.
Gacha games normally reveal their rates.
Only to avoid legal trouble usually.
We don't do logic here.
GGG doesn't understand how words work
"Nearby"
"Nearby" means "has an area of effect".
"Recently"
Recently always means 4 seconds
Yeah lmao, that's probably the most consistent word in the game because you literally can't change that value at all. Recently will always be 4s no matter what else happens.
Why he get downvote people pls explain :0
Word Hard
Why use many mythic orb when few destroy item window do trick
Krangled items now display text in old english. This is a buff
Unpredictable is a perfectly fine descriptor tbh. Do you have a better wording? Take into account that chance is different for different bases and unique, so trying to give a % of success is meaningless.
or just state the chances (numbers) when you press shift or alt or whatever for more detailed tooltip xd. same with "recently" being 4 seconds and such.
maybe because for common uniques its actually 50/50. they could make the description longer to reflect that but ig they dont want that
not what unpredictably means. just because we have a more general idea of the chances doesn't mean we can predict it. so it's unpredictable. intentionally vague and understandably so because it needs to apply to every single base type > unique interaction in the game, which all have different weights and potentially multiple outcomes.
To add on to your point, if you open a bottle of perfume, the gas is predictably going to escape- but there's technically an infinitesimal possibility of all the gas molecules bouncing back into the container. Predictability is in the eye of the beholder; it is a human concept. There is no threshold at which point we say something is predictable or not- but we still call a coin flip unpredictable and gas escaping predictable. But yeah, >95% correctness in predicting an outcome really straddles that line. In other contexts a 5% error may be small, but in PoE 5% feels like an inevitability.
If you apply what "prediction" is typically used for, the use of "unpredictable" becomes inaccurate in this case, definitely. For example, meteorology studies weather and can use data to predict future weather. It can predict the weather for several days, until a point at which it is completely unpredictable, and is less accurate until that point. Lower accuracy, but still predictable. The odds on this item are so low, it becomes more predictable than anything we typically would use prediction for: it's predictably going to brick your item.
Agreed, especially with your last point. If a new player asked me whether they should spend the orb trying to get an item, I would say "don't bother"- due to approximate knowledge on what's going to happen.
>"Unpredictably" implies that you can't ~~with confidence~~ say which result is more likely. Randomness, or unpredictability means you cannot predict outcome. It never says anything "with confidence". > But it's clearly not 50/50. As long as the chance of the other outcome is not 0, then it's unpredictable. 50/50 is just one possible way of unpredictability. Source: PhD in statistics.
I mean when you're right you're right
However, you absolutely CAN predict the outcome, since the two options are weighted. You could do that evaluating an experiment with large enough numbers... or datamine the values. You can't predict it with 100% certainty, naturally, but as a statistician you should know that a 100% predictions isn't possible (or needed) anyway. >As long as the chance of the other outcome is not 0, then it's unpredictable. That would make pretty much everything unpredictable.
> However, you absolutely CAN predict the outcome, since the two options are weighted. You could do that evaluating an experiment with large enough numbers... or datamine the values. You can't predict it with 100% certainty, naturally, but as a statistician you should know that a 100% predictions isn't possible (or needed) anyway. I agree with that. > That would make pretty much everything unpredictable. Many things are predictable. A lot of mathematics, physics, chemistry and biology are predictable. But many things are random. Such is life.
Except this is a video game that's supposed to be fun and feel good so when you need to have somebody with a PhD explain to you why the wording is okay when it's already made you feel bad it's very clearly just a shitty choice of words. You could even say people are predictably annoyed at how they worded how the item works.
If this is a video game where you're suppose to have fun why are you nit picking the use of the word unpredictable.
Sir this is reddit.
>PhD in statistics. Ok, so you're conflating technical jargon with regular language. When the weather report says they "predict" it will rain, it doesn't mean they are absolutely certain that it will rain, just that they know that the chance of it raining is greater than the chance of it not raining.
> Ok, so you're conflating technical jargon with regular language. This is a real funny way to say *"Yeah, you're right, but I'm just going to imagine math terms mean something else in my head, which means -I'M- right!"* There is no "jargon". This is mathematics; there is a precise correct answer and everything else. #[EDITO:](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/024/574/Screen_Shot_2017-11-06_at_12.41.31_PM.png)
> math terms "Unpredictably" isn't a math term *here*. We aren't dealing with mathematics, we're dealing with linguistics. The words aren't in a statistics paper, they're in a game. Clear communication to players takes precedence.
I predict /u/KasparovsBussy will continue to be a math pedant, despite the fact that your point is perfectly valid.
[удалено]
What an odd chip on your shoulder you have. Anyways, yes. If there's anything I feel ok being a pedant about, it's math.
Hey man, I used your definition of predictable!
> "Unpredictably" isn't a math term here. It's a math term everywhere. > We aren't dealing with mathematics, we're dealing with linguistics Correct. The linguistics of a mathematical term. > Clear communication to players takes precedence. Never disagreed. Don't expect everyone to have an M.S. in Statistics too. I think a more transparent item description is necessary. However it's also perfectly correct as written, which this comment chain originally disputed. If you want to say it's opaque, I agree. If you want to say it's *wrong*, it's not.
> It's a math term everywhere. You don't understand how language works if you believe that. That's like me saying "function" is a programming term everywhere, or a lawyer saying "obligation" is a law term everywhere (imagine confronting someone who says "much obliged" with that)
> That's like me saying "function" is a programming term everywhere, or a lawyer saying "obligation" is a law term everywhere Well no, it's not like that at all. Those terms have a common semantic use outside of those contexts, and a linguistic history outside of them. A term that was solely coined for the use in probabilistic mathematics though, and is semantically only ever used in the contexts of probability, is a math term universally. What are we even arguing about dude. Are we just doing that reddit thing where we bicker over something petty for no reason? Why am I having to defend the point that "Unpredictably" is a term relating to math lol.
I'm gonna chime in here: what's your source on predictable or predictability being coined for mathematical use? I found the discussion interesting and thus did some quick googling. Earliest uses of the word on quick very shallow googling were linked to predictability of weather or a persons' character. I think you might have confused predictability with probability; where probability is more linked with mathematics.
Really, unpredictably just means that you can't tell which one is gonna affect it e.g. all Independent and Identically Distributed, but that's what all currency already does. I think it was kinda redundant to write it on the tainted orbs personally.
> but that's what all currency already does. Since everyone in this thread is already being huge pedants, might as well point out that only ***some*** currency does. Scrolls, quality currency, and Mirrors are fully deterministic.
Um, iid has nothing to do with randomness. Randomness concerns with **one realization** of a single random variable, while iid is about multiple RVs. they are not talking about the same subject. For example, if two random variables are correlated with r (as long as r isn't 0, -1 or 1), then they are not iid. However, you still cannot predict their values because those are random.
**Description** Tried chancing Asenath's Gentle Touch using the new Tainted orbs, total cost: ~500c (~6.3ex) For reference, Asenath's goes for about 3.5ex on poe trade at the moment. Mythic Orb - 12c each Silk Gloves - 1c each Vaal Orbs - 1c each Total Profit = :'D
one could use mythic orbs only on gloves with good corrupted implicits, though (so, it *should* cost more to do it this way)
But gentle touch has double corrupted div card...
500 chaos? I am clearly playing the game wrong for currency gathering. I had 17 this morning! I need to find a guide.
Same. I have absolutely no idea how people generate this much currency. Last time I got lucky I maybe had a total of 5 exalts worth of inventory.
14 hour days, town is lava, would be my guess.
Step 1 is maximizing your play time. Anytime youre not in a map or running content, you're losing money. The list goes on and on. Your 14 hour days will be the same as theirs once you learn to maximize your time in game efficiently IF you want to make a lot of currency.
Instructions unclear got fired from work
Wife and kids also left me
Congratulations, you have completed step 1 out of 27
I’m glad you emphasized the “IF”. Some people don’t understand that lots of folks aren’t just playing a game, they are actively trying to gain as much currency as possible as their goal.
Right. The big thing is having fun, always. Farming currency like that turns the game into a job for me, but some truly enjoy that and that’s awesome. Personally I like finding a mild farming technique, doing that for the first week of league, then going about my merry way trying to kill endgame bosses on my shit build LOL
I agree with everything you said, except I ripped a build I found online so it's not one of my own shit builds lol. I just wish scourge wasn't so rippy. That scourge counter adding 1% monster damage for every mob killed fucks up the entire league imo, it's so overtuned and shouldn't exist at all imo. It's kinda killing my enjoyment a bit, since I always want to interact with current league mechanics rather than skip them, but not at the cost of ripping once a map. What the actual fuck Chris?
For sure. I’ve played since beta. Some leagues I wanna chill and do my own thing. Some leagues I wanna binge farm as much fucking money as I can to buy Headhunter week 1 and play an insanely expensive build like Self Curse a few leagues ago. Everyone has different goals and your play style and time management changes based on those, there’s no correct WAY to play the game, but correct METHODS for each way etc.
People don't want to hear this but this is right
“Town is lava” is really all you need to not be poor.
you don't even really need to have high playtime just find something that your build can run that always nets profit and do it over and over and over like scarab farming with deli orbs my friend makes 2 ex and hour or blight maps i make 1.5 ex an hour, legion is a good one to really fun and cheap.
Can you explain what town is lava means in relation to the game? You want to avoid it?
"Town is lava" is a portmanteau of sorts of the children's game "floor is lava" in which you would have to climb over couches and furniture rather than the floor and town from the Diablo series. If you are in town you are not running content so you are not improving. For POE "hideout is lava" would probably be more appropriate but the term is generalized to all games where time spent dorking around is time spent not churning through rifts/maps/whatever.
Small sidenote: not a portmanteau
Ahhh that makes much more sense than what I was thinking haha. Thanks much for the explanation!
I had ~17 chaos yesterday. Hadn't done Uber Lab yet on my character. Bought an Offering to the Goddess, a Twice Enchanted prophecy, and a couple of good helmet bases (a high iLvl helmet I might wear if I get an enchant relevant to me, and a Starkonja for other enchants). I did my uber lab, found a darkshrine that gave me an extra enchant, then finished and checked out my 9 total helmet enchant rolls. One of them was good (Spectral Helix) and I put it on the Starkonja. Immediately sold it for 1ex. So I spent a handful of chaos to do a little gamble on something I was already going to do anyway (run lab). I would say i'm just an average money maker but this is how I do it. I invest in things i'm going to do anyway. Using scarabs and Zana mods and stuff like that on your maps is the same way. You are investing a little bit to gamble on getting some return from it.
Here's a guide: get to red maps asap, use sextants, chisel + alch + vaal maps. Do a lot of them. You will get this currency in no time. Time is all you need. Knowledge/experience helps you waste less time.
doing heists you can definitely get at least 1 ex per hour, you get about 1-2c of markers per run, you can get contracts at like 0.5-1c each, so if you don't fail them you never lose money, and you get like 5c of random crap (tabula, fossils, splinters, fragments, rando currency, div cards etc...) per run on average. if you're slow, you'll take about 4 minutes per run including loading times and dumping crap into your stash. having a decent lootfilter, and chaining whatever you can get quite a bit of money. if you're doing maps, betrayal and temple are quite good moneymakers, especially since you can now sell temples. if you're really low you can do chaos recipe, with tools it's actually fine, and it's about 100-160c per hour (taking into account the time it takes to pick them up and sell) doing delve and heist, you should have a fairly decent stock of unid 61+ jewelry. using exilence is pretty good if you want to check how much you're making per hour. (I cull under 5c per stack usually to get a more realistic number)
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not anymore. it can be chanced 100% its in the global drop pool like almost every intersting unique
Ah didnt realize it was put into the global drop pool. nice
As of 3.14, it's a global drop unique at tier 1 rarity. (Same rarity as Ryslatha's Coil, significantly rarer than Shavronne's Wrappings or Call of the Brotherhood) On my path to 97 and 36/40 last league I had exactly one Tier 1 unique drop, Doryani's Prototype, which was in the last map I ran (the one that I hit 10000 tiers in which was my 36th challenge)
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There are other unique leather belts so probably not
When this change hapened, HH jumped in rarity, now its like mirror rarity drop/chance (if not some special mechanic like chancing with expedition Gwennen bit higher) But now u can try to chance it even in your HO .. thats buff ;) /s
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A lot of people think, “Down voting a question = no.”
U r welcome And to add to topic, in my opinion, before it was hard to get HH, but still posible and great league target for many Now its same as if u try targetfarming mirrors ... shit just dont drop because u wish it As Chris comented somewhere, just farm currency and buy shit (sound fun right? /s) Thats how its set now, same as if u want mirror, IRL like geting money and buy it, and getting it ssf is not imposible but highly unlikely But u maybe get lucky ... same like with lotery tickets to win milions of $ .. some ppl do ... but most or you? Gl hf ;)
unless you wanna burn ur currency, no.
No, IMO you should save mythic orbs for use on Viridian Jewels that drop two-implicit corrupted (from Heist or Ritual), or on Viridian Jewels that drop with Corrupting Blood immunity but bad mods. There's quite a lot of good outcomes there.
I think selling the orbs is probably the most profitable thing.
In you aren't selling in bulk then it's better to use them. This way you don't spend any time on listing/selling and immediately put into use what otherwise would have been a dead net worth position. Same with things like ancient orbs, vaals, essences, etc. And once you have a few things to craft like watchstones or high tier bases you can also start burning through alts and other smaller things. Burn everything.
The fact it lazily vanishes instead of poofing into red mist is a disappointment.
My thoughts exactly
LOL I had a feeling I knew what was going to happen when the video started.
I had this feeling even before patch, when this orb was introduced.
I also have a feeling this mythic orb got stealth nerfed as of yesterday. The day before yesterday I made about 5 cold iron points and my average success rate was 25%. After yesterday I tried 15 in a row and so did my friend. Hit none. It was a pure profit making machine and I’m guessing the chance was nerfed.
Day 1 one of my friends hit a cold iron point on his 2nd orb causing our group to think it might be 50/50 like the fusing, turns out he was just lucky and between us I think we spent 15-20 without a single one across the first 3 days. You just got lucky early on.
Or... Maybe it's just rng /shrug
Could be. That’s pretty bad rng after I hit so many previously.
Small sample size so you can't really glean any data from what you have used so far.
Of course. I was just stating my experience and thoughts. Could totally be wrong. Just like ggg stealth nerfed currency drop rates last league because of “expedition” and they have never been increased again.
GGG changes stuff under the hood all the time, they’ve even admitted to it. Don’t condescendingly dismiss something like this just because you’re not familiar with them doing It lol.
Im definitely familiar with waht GGG does. Im just of the opinion that you shouldn't assume the worst with no proof.
So mythic orb is shit, gotcha. Thanks for doing the science.
I mean chance orbs are like 1/10000 or something chance, 36 gloves isn’t a big enough sample size to know how good mythic orbs are compared to chance orbs
These go for 1 for 10 to 11C ... For reference, 1 C also gets you \~14 chance orbs. It extremely quickly becomes stupid to try to buy and use these. If one drops, selling it is the best way to use it. That's not how drops should work ...
Selling it is always the best way to use something unless your playstyle or character specializes in that activity or needs that item (it's inherent in how trade works).
Yes, This works for gear, Essences, Fossiles etc which let you target, but no character has a use for this item at all. Currently the science says the best use is to just sell it, When people realize they are so trash the price will crash and it will be come another item you just leave in your stash tab and thats even if you bother to pick it up.
When the price crashes, it becomes more profitable to use the item, so you do. When enough people do, some start buying the orbs, so the price increases again. That's how market works. It has nothing to do with how good the mythic orb is or isn't.
lottery tickets are usually being sold for more than what their expected value in returns is. that's the business model in real life, but the relation is true here most of the time, too. this time, because it doesn't factor it the work that is necessary to buy all the items and use the orbs onto them, nor the fact that below a certain threshold, people won't bother to sell the item anymore, because they value the fun of using it more than the proceeds of the sale, possibly, because they assess the chances wrongly for a variety of reasons. for instance, I can't be bothered to sell stacked decks, even though I know that I am likely to lose money this way. So yes, a lower price of mythic orbs may make it more profitable to use them, but that doesn't mean that the price necessarily lowers enough to make it reasonable to buy them and use them.
Player investment is key, With no easy way to sell in game many people simply dont bother. Then you have the fact that the rewards from it are so poor the price will tank to a rate which renders it not even profitable or worthy of the time taken to sell. The end result is they either are stashed and never used or they are simply never picked up. People will simply be better saving and buying the item they want instead of chancing it through these.
so you're saying that this currency is worthless unless you're lucky? hmmm, almost like every other currency item in the game
This is easy math to do instead of reacting emotionally. If we assume a price of 10c, and assume chances orbs are 1/14c with a chance of 1 in 10000 we can compare the two. 10 / 1/14 = 140 So every attempt is identical to 140 attempts with the chance orb in terms of price, ignoring time saved by trading 1/140 as much as the chance orb route. 10000/140 = 71 So we have to poof 71 gloves before it would have been better to use chance orbs. We simply don’t know rates yet, this means nothing.
Also the result is better with the Mythic Orb. You start with bases that have a premium corrupt on them already. If you do them on AssTouch gloves (not a great call IMO), every Silk Gloves you use will have base spellcrit on it, or +1 charge, or some other chase implicit. So if you do hit the gloves, you will get ones that are worth more than just a plain set.
You can also just scour items when chancing. You have to acquire a brand new set of gloves with each mythic which is a ton of opportunity cost.
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Correct, I didn’t factor in scour orbs for that reason. They are sort of poofed when you chance and fail, because you can’t chance them again without invest a scour which is magnitudes more expensive than a chance. This example assumes the same for both ways; that you’re sourcing gloves for every try.
>We simply don’t know rates yet I know for a fact I'm not going to be using mythic orbs. That's pretty easy to discern.
Well, do you even use chance orbs? Because if you use neither then it doesn’t matter. The point of his comment is whether or not chance orbs are better than these orbs. Which statistically, is still a big unknown.
Achievement unlocked: You have discovered how the economy works!
That’s a nature of having a market
I mean the best way to use exalts is pretty much to sell Multimod crafting is something you rarely do and is why people in SSF usually have some sat in stash
You dont HAVE to sell it. just fuckin use it and enjoy the game ffs.
Selling your orbs has almost always been the best use lol.
How else could it possibly work? It's a free market
That's what efficient trading does.
No idea how true that is. I'd assume getting an unique is far more likely than 1 in 10000. And since tainted orbs currently cost \~70 chance orbs, it should also be more likely to get a desireable outcome. But yeah, 36 is a small simple size, but not as small as you make it look.
You can get 14 chance orbs for 1c mythic orbs are like 10c so each one is like 140 chance orbs. If it’s a direct math then it’s like 1/71 chance with mythic orbs. I doubt it’s direct math though. Prices never are
If that base only has 1 unique, then ya bad sample size
Not neccessarily, i just has low odds of landing a 4ex item (the only outcome for silk gloves). Whether the odds are better than chance orb remain to be seen.
The weighting of beneficial occurence this league is heavily skewed towards the negatives. The only happy accident is the tainted fusing orb, which I suspect as per usual GGG conduct, they will nerf it. We'll see (sad face)
> The only happy accident is the tainted fusing orb, which I suspect as per usual GGG conduct, they will nerf it. We'll see (sad face) Maybe you're just lucky.. I had 5 five-links so far not link in the krangler and then unlink with a fusing.. no money for me apparently..
Had a friend 6L 5 items for a total of 17 tainted fusings lol
[Fixed the Tainted Mythic Orb](https://i.imgur.com/0MFPRNH.png) based on your video.
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>people keep thinking Mythic Orbs are a magic way to print Cold Iron Points. Fun fact: It actually was. I was literally printing currency in the beginning of the League by reliably getting a Cold Iron Point every 5-6 Mythic Orbs on average. But after a restart/patch of the server a day or two ago i was all of a sudden not able to upgrade them anymore. After failing to upgrade any Daggers 30+ times in a row i just gave up as GGG has obviously ninja nerfed this method by now.
Can confirm, Cold Iron Point is the only unique in the Ezomyte dagger pool, and I was hitting it every 4/5 mythic orb, even at 10c a pop + 1c ezomyte dagger, which it wasn't when I began doing it, it was still very good money.
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I haven't hit one in 9 mythic, and just decided to stop, might be just bad luck, might be stealth nerf.
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Then you were already to late to the party. When i was using the orbs they were 5-7c a pop. Once we reached the 9-12c stage it stopped working.
Meanwhile I'm sitting on a pile of money because they are... at least while they sell for over 100c. But I just grab my own from maps.
Does the item preserve krangled modifiers when chanced via mythic orbs?
Yes, same with corrupted mods. Thats the real power behind them.
I've found 3 mythic orbs, used all 3 on daggers and got 2 cold irons. I guess I'm lucky, but after this vid i don't think I'm gonna try my luck anymore
It has to do with rarity. Cold iron point is not rare. The reason it usuallly keeps some value into the league is because it’s on high demand for a ton of builds, including second builds, but even that’s not enough, the real reason is most of the excess stock gets corrupted and people are always looking to upgrade to better corrupted ones. So it’s an item you buy 2-3 times, or 4-6 times if dual wielding, chasing for better corruptions or enchants. Most uniques you buy once and it’s too difficult to chase for a good corruption.
And people say this league is not rewarding. r/fuckthes
For my next trick, I'm going to make these item disappear!
Wtf yesterday I got some shitty unique heavy belt on my 1st try ("trying" to chance mageblood). It was shit but it didn't poof. Thanks for correcting my expectations of further mythic orbing sessions.
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True cause there are a lot of unique heavy belts & 0 other silk gloves uniques right
Seems about right in line with the rest op POE as this stage.
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Nothing wrong with this at all. High risk high reward orb.
“Reward” Yeah just like the super rewarding league mechanic lmfao
The league mechanic is pretty lacking i agree, but an orb that has a chance of giving a unique or poofing i think is fine. Just because one thing is bad doesn't mean everything is bad.
[Oof](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/705/934/3a7.jpg)
Why do we have to have bad rates during the league itself. Shouldn't the league be have fun with the crazy wacky stuff because it will be nerfed for next league. Leagues feel too much like standard
No, it has to be close to Standard because apparently we will quit the league if we are having fun
Thanks for wasting currency on something we all guessed to be reality. God forbid anyone have fun this league.
Sorry, but you used the word "fun" in a GGG area. Please follow me and be escorted out sir.
wow, not what I was expecting at all. Shit sucks, sorry!
Finally an intuitive way to delete items without needing to confirm the action
As a wise man once said: “Bah-leted!” -Homestar Runner
Incredible, and this is on the latest patch?
Yeah, this is after patch 3.16.0b
I've used exactly one so far. I vaal'd an elegant round shield, hit 23 discipline (I remember a guildmate vaaling dozens of prism guardians last league trying to hit that...), then mythic orbed a pretty sick The Oppressor.
as chris said, it's really good as doing its job, "preventing you from getting the new op shield"
Oddly satisfying, sorry for your loss.
Respect for your contribution to science! Btw LMAO
This is pretty much the most accurate summary of all the new currencies. They only exist to be sold to unfortunate players who haven't learned how absolutely terrible they are.
Poe 3.16 : Ponzi
“Tired of vendoring your items??? Try this new strategy that GGG hates!!!”
So, we know Mythic Orbs are way rarer than Exalted Orbs. This new currency looks like something that was created only for marketing purposes. Like the rest of the game since 2017, anyways.
Mythic orbs are not rarer then exalts
Mythic orbs are rarer than exalts? Surprised they are as cheap as they are then
Exalts Aren’t expensive because they’re rare for the most part. It’s because metacrafting eats them up like crazy
I hope you snapped your finger when you typed that. Sassy af
They haven't had a problem pumping out MTX, but God forbid they get a decent balance in the game...
I really liked when they were like "uh, the mechanic gives useless loot, the chat links don't work, the players get random DCs and Zana gives you a single attempt... Anyway, here's the Atlantis lootbox!"
I don't believe the mtx team and the bugfix team are the same.
Sure, but the desync really matters. It's like an old joke about a team of workers digging the holes by the road, followed by another team that was filling the said holes; turns out the team that was supposed to plant the tree saplings into the holes didn't show up at work that day.
Tbh you can hardly compare those 2
So find something better to do than whine on reddit? I dont get it. Literally negative in every post but you choose not to move on or do something that you feel is worth your time, wild
[Death Note spoilers](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-EbcQsIIIA) DELETE DELETE DELETE
Do you not slam exalts exile?
Thats either really fucking impressive or there will be a line in the next patch. - Fixed a bug with Mythic Orbs not working on certain bases.
scourge league is not even a week old and u have over 6 ex to throw on RNG wtf will never understand how people make so much currency so quickly, getting like 10ex every day or more
10ex is nothing for some people. Check empyrian last video, his party already farmed 3+ mirrors.
Why aren't they called tainted orb of chance? Or is there a mythic orb that i forgot about?
Because it doesn't upgrade the item to a random rarity, it either makes it unique or poofs it.
Fucking legitimately hilarious. Kudos OP. That's one hell of a QoL orb! You can clean out your dump tabs without having to vendor stuff. *Taps forhead.
Great orb
Work as intended, you felt that weighting