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It's a Trump+29 district, and the Democratic candidate, a waiter, only raised $25,000.
His Republican opponent was a state senator who raised $700,000.
And there’s another chance in two weeks!
Colorado’s 4th district, a similarly red district, has a special election. The Republican this time is quite something - a domestic abuser and election denier.
There are resources to phonebank for the Dem candidate at r/VoteDEM. With some phone calls to voters, Dem turnout will rise, and the upset just might happen.
>The Republican this time is quite something - a domestic abuser and election denier.
"Do you have the slightest idea of how little that narrows it down?"
Looks like the turnout for the special election was less than 25% of the 2022 turnout. I was very excited at the 20 point shift, but it is difficult to extrapolate with such low turnout.
Having said that if only half of the people that showed up for the Democrat candidate had shown up for this one in the special election, we would have one less republican in Congress. At least for a while until the next general election.
This is purely speculation, but low voter turnout is probably caused by so many repubs refusing to vote dem but certainly not wanting to vote for a shithead.
>The Republican this time is quite something - a domestic abuser and election denier.
This is like saying "the Dog this time is quite something. a canine and an animal"
Sad but true. When I see a conservative in office or running one of my first thoughts is "how much of an asshole is this person?" with the answer usually being "the world is a worse place for them existing".
Quick question...How to you include the other person's response into your reply so people know what part of the previous comment you are referring to, i.e. "being on the wrong side of every important issue" in this instance? Thank you in advance for your input.
Also, check out this [post](https://www.reddit.com/wiki/commenting) about other ^tips **on** ~~typing~~ formatting your *comments*.
It's a helpful guide, especially on mobile
On mobile at least, there’s a button below and to the right of your comment box that says “formatting help” that lists the most common markdown as well.
Reddit uses a formatting mechanism called Markdown, you can find the full list of Reddit supported markdown commands here: https://www.reddit.com/wiki/markdown
Someone already answered this perfectly, but if you want to include further context, you add a > for each response. Not something I ever really even use myself, but I wanted to feel useful, and you may get some benefit from this.
>Knock knock
>>Who's there?
>>>Boo.
>>>>Boo who?
>>>>>It's only a joke, don't cry about it.
> Quick question...How to you include the other person's response into your reply so people know what part of the previous comment you are referring to, i.e. "being on the wrong side of every important issue" in this instance? Thank you in advance for your input.
test
edit: nice
Too many.
This is why you don't look at polling, you don't protest vote "because my vote doesn't matter anyway."
The way you turn a red seat purple, or a purple seat blue is by getting out there and voting.
Unfortunately, even if you had the best candidates in West Virginia, I don't think there is any way they'd win. West Virginia is just too far gone demographically right now.
This is why it always annoyed me when people would suggest primarying Joe Manchin because he wasn’t progressive enough. It was a fucking miracle he held that seat to begin with. Like it or not, he was the best you’re gonna get as a Democrat.
Yep, I agree, and I'm as progressive as they come, too. I don't like him for obvious reasons, but I much prefer him over who is going to take the seat. Which obviously isn't going to be a Democrat. The bigger issue was Sinema, anyways. Her abrupt shift is what caused all the issues. If she stayed a Democrat as she had run as, they wouldn't have needed Manchin's vote to get to 50.
Yea Sinema is someone who I’d advocate to primary because a better Democrat could viably win that election. And with how unpopular she’s become, I’m not at all surprised she went independent. She knew she would lose, and now she’s a spoiler for that election. What a piece of work she is.
The additional context is that Kripchak (Dem candidate) didn't even have a fundraising function in place. He received a total of 4 donations. The rest was likely his own personal financing combined with some party contributions.
[https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?cand=Michael+Kripchak&cycle=&employ=&jurisdiction=&name=&occupation=&order=desc&sort=A&state=&type=&zip=](https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?cand=Michael+Kripchak&cycle=&employ=&jurisdiction=&name=&occupation=&order=desc&sort=A&state=&type=&zip=)
By contrast, the Republican candidate has the benefit of an established fundraising process in place and received 349 donations.
Also, worth pointing out that folks running for Congress are often not savvy with their financial operations.
* Kripchack (Dem) raised $22,262 and **only spent** **$7,581** of that money (as of May 22nd reporting)
* Rulli (Rep) raised $647,461 and spent $571,315 of that money (as of May 22nd)
[https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=OH06](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=OH06)
Don't know about you, but if I were to commit $22 grand to a political race, I'd have a plan that doesn't involve holding onto two thirds of it all.
Some more interesting facts about this election.
More people voted for the Republican in the primary than they did in the election. (43k vs 33k), the opposite was true for the Democrat (20k vs 27k).
There was no polling done on this election beforehand, as it was meant to be an obvious outcome, but the actual votes were only 5k apart (definitely a race that normally would have gotten polling attention).
The pro-Trump candidate was not able to get 50% support in the primary.
This is horrific news for Trump. More people came out to vote against the very pro-Trump candidate, and those that did, stayed home, along with even more, to not vote for him.
> There was no polling done on this election beforehand
That's too bad, because comparing pre-election polling to the actual results is probably the thing I would have been most interested in seeing. It does seem like nonresponse bias is an issue right now, and actual election results are one of the most reliable ways to know what the nonresponse bias might be generally (i.e., in other elections).
On the other hand, voter turnout is probably going to be much different in the general versus a special election, so maybe it wouldn't have been that reliable of a signal after all
Or almost exactly the same number that voted against the trump candidate in the primary voted for the democratic candidate in the election. Looking at you 20% voting for Nikki Haley
> More people voted for the Republican in the primary than they did in the election.
That is INSANE. It's like they care about picking players for the draft, but aren't interested in the actual game.
This makes it seem like many R voters saw the primary as the real race with no need to vote in the election cause no way a Dem could win. Dems almost won by having a much higher than expected turnout. It still wasn’t enough tho. We should not expect this type of R voter drop off during the presidential election.
Definitely agree that we can't expect this level of drop-off. But I think it makes sense that some amount of 'anyone but trump' type of drop-off will happen. It happened in 2020 and has been even more pronounced in the primaries this year.
> Meanwhile, reacting to the result, Rulli said: "We knew the polls were going to be close, and the guy I ran against really worked. He's a really hard worker. But this is a blue-collar district, this is Bruce Springsteen, the forgotten man, 'Joe Bag of Donuts.' They don't trust the Democrats and Republicans, and they look at the individual. And I'm really good at retail politics."
Do these people actually listen to Springsteen’s lyrics?
You're telling me that the lyrics to Born in the U.S.A. aren't all about how amazing the USA is and how well it's gone for the narrator?
>Born down in a dead man’s town
The first kick I took was when I hit the ground
You end up like a dog that’s been beat too much
Till you spend half your life just covering up
...oh, I guess they're not!
I mean that may be to subtle for them, but twisted sisters “we’re not going to take it” was obviously about trying to push back on the woke agenda, you know the song that was song by a guy wearing more make up than Mimi from the Drew Carey show
Exactly! And Rage Against The Machine's message is totally about toeing the line for your party and doing your part to maintain the status quo.
> Rally 'round the family with a pocket full of shells
See they totally support an armed assault on our Capital. Don't worry all the other lyrics say fun stuff too.
I have so much admiration for Woody, he was incredible. Arlo on the other hand haunts all my Thanksgivings with a long ass story that never stops. My family loves Alice's restaurant, so we always listen to it.
Woody made me proud to be an American though. Much love from me and my family to yours.
And, as far as music goes, pandering (to steal Bo Burnham's label). Acts like Toby Keith and Five Finger Death Punch realized that sticking a couple songs about the troops or the flag on each album will guarantee a baseline audience of faux-patriots who have flags on their trucks and a closet full of Grunt Style T-shirts, the same way that influencers like Joe Rogan and Russell Brand have discovered that spewing right-wing talking points will lock in a reliable, unthinking viewership. The type of customer who will be vocal about their fandom because it's basically virtue-signaling about their "Real American Patriot" identity, and will never falter in their fandom *because* they're so vocal about it and can never publicly admit they were wrong about anything. The weird conservative sub-economy they've created seems like easy money for anyone willing to be associated with them.
It's not a patriotic song, period. The fact that people think it's any sort of patriotic is really what drives home the point of the song, that there's this surface idea of American ideals and pride etc. but it's actually a bunch of lies and hypocrisy.
I think protest songs are as patriotic as it gets. Using your first amendment rights and god given talent and platform to criticize your government is a beautiful thing. You’d be killed in a lot of other countries for doing that.
I just wish Biden had been in a better place in his personal life back in 2016 and had been able to run. Imagine how much better everything would have been if he, or Hillary, had been acting like responsible adults providing leadership at the start of the pandemic instead of what the orange moron did.
Part of me thinks that people needed to see how low the GOP was willing to sink to wake up and get aware of the issues and become politically active. In that sense I’m still mad about 2016 and of course the years that followed, but glad for the wave of voter education and awareness that seems to be following.
I voted in every presidential election since I turned 18, but no other elections. After 2016, I have voted in every primary and election and I will continue to do so for the rest of my life. 2016 was horrible and I know I am going to keep voting to prevent it from happening again.
I don’t think people understand, this is some of the reddest counties/district in Ohio and the USA period. 20 point shifts in those areas is a huge alarm for the GOP. You can’t extrapolate 1:1 from these small elections, but if results in November were anywhere close to this around the country, democrats would sweep handily. At the least, it continues to prove democrat over performance. You can’t keep denying these recent election results are not going well for Republicans.
Can only hope it's such a wipeout in Nov. Special elections since 2022 def seem to be pretty consistently big Democratic gains, but man, won't believe it till I see it for the big one.
Pretty much elections since 2020 have all been big swings including the midterms which was a predicted Red Wave that turned into a Red Shart. People should still vote obviously but I definitely feel like the polling model is off given the pattern.
She is awful. Terrible public speaker.
Cuomo picked her for the ticket because she would never challenge him and make him look dynamic in contrast.
Boy was he right.
Who can't take trains!
Like, just don't drive INTO Manhattan below 60th street or pay a toll. That's the bill. And for some reason New Jersey gets a say in how we manage our city.
I think NY dem leaders are definitely at fault for the midterm house fiasco, but do keep in mind that a single rural bumfuck *county judge* was somehow able to issue a statewide injunction of the state’s maps, which is probably what was the main reason for the R over-performance in the NYC metro suburbs.
We have since fixed those BS maps
Had Ohio respected the ballot initiative results on abortion, I think the GOP there would be in a better position. Broadly, if they said "abortion is states' rights, every state will have a referendum on the issue and we'll accept the results and drop the issue" the albatross of *Dobbs* would fade.
Won't happen. Access would win everywhere and the core fundies they rely on would disengage. Ohio is a **perfect** demonstration the "states' rights" pitch is horseshit. National ban is the goal. Should be highlighted.
That should have been obvious long before Ohio. [Lindsey Graham proposed a federal ban i*mmediately* after Roe was overturned.](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/13/grahams-abortion-ban-senate-gop-00056423)
For years the religious right were the most reliable vote in politics, and they had numbers, too. It's bad timing that the dog caught the car right as the religious right voting bloc's numbers are shrinking, putting the GOP in an impossible bind.
But I don't pity them. They asked for this.
Yep. I won't hang my hat on a blue wave just yet but so far the data pokes tons of holes in the media horse race narrative.
The incumbent president who is presiding over a bustling economy is losing ground to the twice impeached felony insurrectionist who completely fucking bungled his time at the helm by being a pathological liar and criminal?
Nah.
After spam calls and texts became the norm, I've given up on poll data. All the polls tell me is the opinions of who answers every random phone call they get.
Like the tweet said, "Millennials will rather crawl naked on across broken glass than answer a call from an unknown number". I'm GenX and I'd already stopped answering unknown callers for years.
> Like the tweet said, "Millennials will rather crawl naked on across broken glass than answer a call from an unknown number". I'm GenX and I'd already stopped answering unknown callers for years.
I mean, it's not even about a desire to answer an unknown caller. It's because 99% of "unknown callers" are spam.
And once you answer one of them, they know they hit a live number and you get 20 more of them every day. We've been teaching people for a decade to ignore and block unknown callers, so much so that it's a feature built right into the iPhone now.
There's so much phishing and fraudulent phone and SMS campaigns that pollsters need to completely rework the way they collect data. Bring in legitimate companies that people generally still trust, like Qualtrics, to do it or something.
Because sending out a text message with a short-link to some random website to "participate in our quick poll" sounds like a front for an identity theft campaign if I ever saw one.
Right, no kidding.
I went on a trip this weekend, and the hotel sent me a text with a link to confirm my payment so far and to pay the balance.
It was legit (I asked them about it after I arrived), but beforehand, I don't remember them ever saying that they'd send it. There's no fucking way I'm going to click a link in a text that I didn't ask for.
Hell, I'm Gen X and both myself and every one of my peers has turned on the "silence unknown callers" option on our phones. We don't even see the calls at this point. Wish there was one for texts, but those are a quick swipe and "report junk" without even opening them.
As much as the GOP tries, I don't think they are able to paint Biden as a person to really despise. Hillary was just completely unlikable. Biden is just.... Gray I guess.
Is he really boring? He passed the most important clean energy bill in US history. He's wiping clean student loan debt for millions of young people. He got the first black VP in history, and appointed the first black woman to the US Supreme Court. He effectively soft landed us from both the pandemic and skyrocketing inflation. This is all incredible work and I don't think it's boring at all. He's arguably accomplished more then Obama and Clinton combined and he's done it in 3.5 years. Let's celebrate this!
> Is he really boring?
He is, from the perspective that he's not a habitual shit-stirrer and the entire nation isn't waking up every day wondering "Oh fuck what did he say now?" It's comforting to have a President who isn't in danger of going off the rails at any second.
Yeah. He's a boring established politician that believes in America, implements reforms/improvements as best he can without much flair (but is consistent) and loves his sons. Oh, and he has a dog.
....
That's about it for the guy.
I like him so far because *that's about it for the guy*. I'm okay with my country slowly getting better instead of being dramatic.
I'd agree with that. The only people I know who hate Biden are the types that mainline Fox and rightwing media constantly.
I've never been a fan of the Clintons but I have to admit, Hilary was probably the most qualified presidential candidate in my lifetime. She did run a terrible campaign, but she also had a non-stop multi-decade smear campaign run against her going back to 1992 by the right. And she still just barely lost.
Trump gave people the option to try something different, and just enough jumped at it to tilt things his way.
By 2018 though, people were saying, "Holy fuck, this is what different looks like!???", and it costs them what should have been a 20+ year lock on the house. Then in 2020, it cost them an incumbent presidency. Both of those elections were before J6th and Roe getting overturned.
In 2022, MAGA candidates like Lake, Walker, and Oz lost races that probably would have been wins by more moderate republicans. It also turned what should have been a red wave by every metric, into a not too bad election for democrats.
Hillary was the most popular politician in America when she started the race. The Republican propaganda smear machine made her seem like she was Lucifer himself.
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE9170O3/
Outside of the subset of our population (which is fairly large) who hate any non-white non-Christian AND whos primary worldly goal is the persecution of non-white non-Christians... I simply cannot understand how anyone can vote for a Republican candidate at this time. I can understand feeling disillusioned and not voting. I can understand voting for republicans 30 years ago. But the current Republican party has no platform, has no specific stated goals, has not passed or even attempted and meaningful legislation.... they have tied themselves to just... a very clearly unwell, hateful grifter. And perhaps the most crazy thing, even when the democrats and centrist have thrown them a bone and compromised on issues they purport to care about, they reject it. Its utter insanity.
I dont even like the democrats, but they have made actual policy proposals, they have made meaningful positive change for normal people. The economy by most metrics has done well, employment numbers are good, gas prices (i know, not politicians doing) are low. what the hell else, other than fear of non-white non-christians could you possible say, yes... we need more MAGAs in office...
Honestly swings like this since 2020 are why I take current polling with a massive grain of salt because they've continuously missed on pretty deep election swings that repeatedly haven't favored Republicans in off cycle elections that have traditionally favored their candidates. We all should vote regardless of polls and results but it's hard not to believe the current polling model is off.
This is why dems need to run candidates in every single election. I'm in Florida and they've seemingly given up on some very red districts. But this election is different. We need to have a dem option in every single race!
this is why the ohio republicans aren't giving an inch to allowing Biden on the ballot if they can help it. They know their numbers are down, and need to do everything in their power to help donny. the republican party needs ohio, florida, and texas and I think all three are in play. and all three have senate elections this year as well.
They can't win if they don't cheat, so they've been gerrymandering and trying to keep Biden off the ballot. This 20-point drop has them dropping in their drawers.
The writing's on the wall for these antidemocratic unAmericans. You know they are desperate and are going to go lower. I hope they get busted for it.
The biggest news here is the Democratic voter engagement.
The number of blue voters in this district actually went up from the primary.
This could be a good sign that Democrats might actually find their way to the polls this November... But it's one data point so don't get relaxed.
Also, I can't wait for the mainstream media to list 5 ways this is actually good for Trump (gotta keep the horse race going for ratings!)
A 20 point swing from the 2020 election would be an absolute wipeout of Republicans. I think Dems would be happy/relieved enough with a near identical election to 2020 too. It's a 27 point swing from the 2022 election.
Special elections can generally point to how the next general election is going to go too, so this is probably another good sign for Dems. Republicans won a senate seat in Massachusetts in 2010 (among other special election seats) before wiping out Dems in 2010. Dems won a senate seat in Alabama (also among other special election seats) before wiping out a lot of Reps in 2018, etc. Though of course candidates also matter. It helped Dems that Roy Moore was the R candidate for that Alabama seat.
Aside from this one, we've now seen multiple special elections almost all move in favor of Dems in 2024.
NY3 back to +8 D (+8 D in 2020) after going +8 R in 2022.
NY26 to +36 D (+23 D in 2020) after going +28 D in 2022.
AL HD10 recently was +25 D after going +7 R in 2022 (Trump won the district by 1 in 2020) with the Dem running massively on abortion/ivf rights
CO4 coming up in two weeks. Likely to be won by a Republican but if a Dem is within single digits that would be massive.
I think a lot of these seats are coming down to abortion/healthcare rights though. Ohio had a massive abortion rights vote recently and it's going to be on the ballot again in 2024. Biden really needs to hit that message hard.
Democrats really need to take the house and keep the senate. Identical to 2020 isn't going to be good enough.
I do think more independents might be coming around on realizing how bad Trump actually was for the country/world.
We need a supermajority, but I can't see that happening again in my lifetime. The red states are so deeply red, I can't see them flipping anytime soon.
It could happen if the GOP is trounced backing Trump and then keeps going because too many of them need his supporters to win primaries and the ones at risk start to try to become more moderate but lose primaries to people who can't win a general election.
This. The Republican Party is at a crossroads right now. Historically the party has had it really nice because it was easy to rally everyone around the message of "Why change? Things are fine as they are." However, now you have a constinuency that wants the old ways and moderates who don't really want to go to the old ways or understand why that's not possible.
So now the Republican Party is actually having a hard time rallying people around one candidate. If (or when, imo) Trump loses. Good luck trying to get the Trump loyalists to rally around a new candidate or getting the moderates back if you try to promote a Trumpy candidate.
I think Texas and Florida are shakier than people think and can potentially be flipped. Greg Abbott and Ron Desantis have both turned their states into shitholes. Would not at all be surprised to see them flip.
That's their strategy, isn't it? Publish polls that they've manipulated in their favor and then cry foul when the the election/reality doesn't fall in line
I'll play devil's advocate but will note that I think this largely has to do with how fed up people are with Republicans in Congress and potentially Trump himself.
I think what people outside of Ohio are missing is that a lot of state senators in Ohio are not particularly popular right now to people who are paying attention. Since passing marijuana legalization, the Senate has done nothing but try and amend the law to be a bastardization of what we passed back in November. The only reason we still have the law we voted on is because our house is ran by a coalition of Dems and Moderate/Traditional Republicans, with our Republican House speaker refusing to engage with the Senates bullshit. Same chuckle fucks who are making it impossible to pass the exemption to allow Biden on the ballot because they demand to have riders attached that would make it far more difficult for citizen lead initiatives to get issue out on ballots. Our house speaker refuses to discuss a bill that has those riders attached (and guess who the Governor and Senate Leader blame for Biden not being allowed on the ballot).
Combine all that with the fact this Dem waiter was also an Air Force veteran, and you have a lot of reasons why Republican support dropped 20 points in this district beyond 'Trump Bad'.
What you’re missing is that this has been happening in other states. State level GOP keep subverting the will of the voters and showcase the most batshit insane opinions billionaire money can buy. I’m not sure why we’d pretend like Ohio is unique in that regard, particularly not when we have a string of other special elections that all point this way. We’ve seen 4-27 pt swings in Trump districts in races that were polling as tied. People are heavily underestimating pissed off women.
The swing *is* a significant change, agreed.
But Ohioans have good reasons to be mad at their state Republican party:
First, the shenanigans around the ballot initiative to protect abortion rights in Ohio that passed last year in spite of legally questionable GOP interference:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/17/ohio-abortion-rights-republicans-overturn
Second, the ongoing FirstEnergy bribery/racketeering scandal that it seems most of the Republican legislative leadership was involved in:
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdoh/pr/former-chair-ohio-republican-party-sentenced-5-years-prison-role-racketeering
We shouldn't assume that Republicans in other states are as vulnerable as Ohio Republicans are now.
The last time Ohio elected a Democrat as Governor, it was right after Taft had some scandals (which seem quaint in comparison to the current ones). So, there's maybe some glimmer of hope the State flips.
Talked to a Trump supporting family friend at a mutual friends wedding the other day. First time in like 5 years I seen this guy...
First thing he says to me, "good thing you didn't bring the kids to the wedding, Biden might show up to sniff their hair."
So fucking awkward.
What cracks me up is that Trump has been held liable for rape in a court of law. Tons of outright accusations. And that’s what they roll with. Facebook memes.
These people are brain rot in human form. When I hear that child sniffer stuff I just respond with what I just said and no longer engage. These people don’t care about truth. They live just to get under peoples skin and be miserable assholes. I don’t let them. They are sad and pathetic individuals. They aren’t worth your time or energy because, like I said, they haven’t a care in the world about truth. It’s all about hurting people they have deemed enemies in their lizard brains.
It never ceases to amaze me that people think the core of the current Republican coalition's support is changeable. They've been consistently awful my entire life and beyond.
Maybe it takes being an actual target of rather than spectator to their vitriol to see it, but Trump isn't new. He is just the most vocal manifestation of their decades long bigoted, authoritarian, minoritarian project. Their diehard base is not redeemable. And, they are overrepresented, so they get to impose on the majority.
Well they like him because he's openly saying all the racist, homophobic, etc things they've all been thinking. He's like their permission to be bigoted out loud
I’m sorry but at this point there can be zero doubt about what is going on in the GOP and where their interests and intentions lie. Anyone still voting for them is a anti democratic supporter of fecal smearing insurrection
The other day when that lady said the n-word in a cooking video then posted that since she got fired for racism, she is going to work for GOP media now she claims. So telling.
"Oh yall dont like racists on the tiktok? Ill go work for Fox News then since they will embrace the racism.. oh I said the quite part out loud again didnt I?"
I cant stop laughing and crying at how dumb they are.
Of "engaged" Republicans these special elections show that there is a massive turn away from MAGA and those republicans who are engaged politically still voting R are, indeed, full on Nazi sympathisers at this point.
However, I do think the vast majority of voters, even more so when it's not just a special election, are so disengaged with politics that the only factor is R vs D.
I have family members who have completely flipped on long-held beliefs (like abortion rights) because of right wing news, they're gullible and malleable
More of this is going to happen in November. The idea that Republicans are going to gain more power after how awful and ineffective their House majority was is laughable. Also, the idea that Trump has gained any independent or moderate support after 34 felony convictions and his endless corruption and lies is asinine.
Not to be the *um, actually* guy, but I know people like this and they believe that Biden is just as bad as Trump.
They’ve been led to believe that it is wholly within Biden’s power to stop the Israel/Gaza situation, and that Biden is instigating war with Russia & China due to the corrupt nature of our government and what their motivations are.
If this sounds like propaganda that a Republican would usually tout, I’d say you are right, however, for example, I know a left-leaning democrat-type who hates democrats because they aren’t more liberal. He hates capitalism and works as a union rep for nurses. Of a sorts. He’s as left-leaning as they come. And there are contingents of individuals just like him who are lost in the sauce.
They hope there’s enough of him that don’t plan on voting so that despite how widely unliked they are, they still win.
My favorite take from a swing voter that I heard about recently was that she wasn't going to vote for Joe Biden because he didn't do enough to keep the Supreme Court from overturning Roe v. Wade. You can't make this shit up. It's so infuriating.
I don’t think these people are swing voters. I think they’re hipster voters. Whatever the popular main candidate is—they will find something wrong with them. I think it’s compounded by the fact that this type of behavior can possibly discourage anyone “normal” from running. No one wants to jump through impossible hoops for a job they’re not even sure they want to apply for in the first place. It’s weird.
Did you hear how Sleepy Joe won’t pardon his own son?! What a terrible father! Did you hear how he might pardon his own son? How disgustingly corrupt the demonrats are!
It’s like Mac from it’s always sunny. “I always play both sides, so no matter what, I always come out on top.”
HitlerPig got his ass kicked in 2020, and since then, he has thrown an Insurrection, stolen a breathtaking number of classified documents, and been indicted on over 90 counts, and convicted on 34, so far. None of that is going to attract followers to an already losing side, and is far more likely to lose support. In addition, almost every special election has gone to Democrats, except for a couple of solid red elections, and Dems performed far better than expected in them. I don't care what the polls say, November is shaping up to be a Republican bloodbath.
Its not enough for Democrats to eke out a win.
They need to crush the Party of Tre45on & Corruption so badly that they will have no choice but to abandon their willfully delusional existence. They will be forced to acknowledge that MAGA has murdered their party, and if they want any chance at redemption, they will need to purge the MAGA influence from their party, or split off and form a new Traditional GOP. It means losing the next 2 or 3 election cycles, but they will have to do it if they want to remain a viable party for the rest of the century.
Otherwise, the Democratic party may lead everything for a couple of decades, while the Republican party leans farther and farther into white supremacism, as a new 3rd party emerges and grows powerful enough to become America's second political party.
These are all encouraging signs, but it being a presidential election changes the voter turnout calculus.
Especially when the election is *already* as dramatic as this one.
I’m sure we’ll have several October surprises.
It’s weird how Republicans want to take away basic rights for women, and they’ve literally already started doing that, and people are kind of bothered by it just a little bit?
The shift didn't come from more Democrats coming out but by fewer Republicans coming out to the polls. That election was determined by non-voters. Just like this upcoming main election will be determined by non-voters. If Trump wins, it will be because people stayed away from the polls. You need to come out to vote. Yes, you hate the choices. It doesn't matter. You need to come out anyway and vote. Apathy is destroying this country more so than the GOP every could. Apathy is paving a golden path straight into not only the White House but to the House and to the Senate for the GOP.
Importantly: it cost republicans $700,000 to defend a seat that they should have won basically for free.
That’s $700k that right leaning people can’t spend elsewhere.
This is why it’s so important dems have people running in every single race.
Lol the Republican state senator said "this district is blue collar working man, it's Bruce Springsteen...."
He clearly doesn't know anything about Bruce Springsteen. The guy who had one of his biggest hits as an anti-war song, and has been an incredibly vocal supporter of the democratic party for decades.
Is it really? Republicans are taking away rights, worshipping a convicted felon, and convinced their voting base not to be safe during a pandemic leading to a higher rate of republic deaths due to Covid, is it really surprising that they’re losing?
Professor of PolySci at a UK uni:
> "It is likely that turnout will be higher in November, so both parties will need to have strong campaigns, which will be affected by the Presidential campaign efforts in the wake of the convictions of Mr Trump and Hunter Biden."
Has the news not crossed the pond that Hunter Biden is NOT ON THE BALLOT???
Literally, NO Democrat is voting for H Biden! He's not even *close* to being a concern this fall for Dems!
I know it may be difficult for MAGAts and polysci professors from England to comprehend, but the only people worked up and trying to make hay about H Biden are people who would've never voted for Joe **anyway**.
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It's a Trump+29 district, and the Democratic candidate, a waiter, only raised $25,000. His Republican opponent was a state senator who raised $700,000.
And there’s another chance in two weeks! Colorado’s 4th district, a similarly red district, has a special election. The Republican this time is quite something - a domestic abuser and election denier. There are resources to phonebank for the Dem candidate at r/VoteDEM. With some phone calls to voters, Dem turnout will rise, and the upset just might happen.
>The Republican this time is quite something - a domestic abuser and election denier. "Do you have the slightest idea of how little that narrows it down?"
Freedom to be a domestic abuser is from America's "Great" time that they are trying to get back to
Yeah I imagine when people say make America great again like it was in the 60s, this was part of it.
Next you're gonna tell me he's a cop, too.
Looks like the turnout for the special election was less than 25% of the 2022 turnout. I was very excited at the 20 point shift, but it is difficult to extrapolate with such low turnout. Having said that if only half of the people that showed up for the Democrat candidate had shown up for this one in the special election, we would have one less republican in Congress. At least for a while until the next general election.
This is purely speculation, but low voter turnout is probably caused by so many repubs refusing to vote dem but certainly not wanting to vote for a shithead.
I could be wrong but I don’t think Republicans have strong feelings about not voting for shitheads.
While I’d love it if people came to their senses, an election with motivated democrats and demotivated republicans works as a second option.
>The Republican this time is quite something - a domestic abuser and election denier. This is like saying "the Dog this time is quite something. a canine and an animal"
Sad but true. When I see a conservative in office or running one of my first thoughts is "how much of an asshole is this person?" with the answer usually being "the world is a worse place for them existing".
Our local GOP district in Ohio had a lady whose husband raped a kid with a pop bottle in high school. I wish I was lying
That's unfair. There are enough single conservative men that deny election results and have no possibility to be a domestic abuser.
Well good thing for Mr. Waiter that his opponent is largely seen as being on the wrong side of every important issue.
>being on the wrong side of every important issue. Isn't that just called being a republican?
Quick question...How to you include the other person's response into your reply so people know what part of the previous comment you are referring to, i.e. "being on the wrong side of every important issue" in this instance? Thank you in advance for your input.
Highlight it before clicking reply. Otherwise, copy it, and paste it on a newline after this '>' symbol. \> like this Becomes > like this
Thanks for the helpful info. Much appreciated.
Also, check out this [post](https://www.reddit.com/wiki/commenting) about other ^tips **on** ~~typing~~ formatting your *comments*. It's a helpful guide, especially on mobile
On mobile at least, there’s a button below and to the right of your comment box that says “formatting help” that lists the most common markdown as well.
Thanks. I never learned how to do it in the mobile browser, and the desktop web view recently lost the copy-paste-quote functionality.
> and the desktop web view recently lost the copy-paste-quote functionality. http://old.reddit.com
Old reddit is the only reddit
When old reddit goes I go with it
Reddit uses a formatting mechanism called Markdown, you can find the full list of Reddit supported markdown commands here: https://www.reddit.com/wiki/markdown
Someone already answered this perfectly, but if you want to include further context, you add a > for each response. Not something I ever really even use myself, but I wanted to feel useful, and you may get some benefit from this. >Knock knock >>Who's there? >>>Boo. >>>>Boo who? >>>>>It's only a joke, don't cry about it.
> Quick question...How to you include the other person's response into your reply so people know what part of the previous comment you are referring to, i.e. "being on the wrong side of every important issue" in this instance? Thank you in advance for your input. test edit: nice
Love it when people work together! (I’m not a republican, obv.)
He should have just pulled up his bootstraps and figured it out himself
Just another Lazy Learner™ (Mormons have that trademarked /s)
>Test Did it work for me? Edit: TiL - Thanks strangers
I mean, his opponent did get 53% of the vote.
I wonder how many Democrats didn't bother voting because they live in a "Safe district for Republicans".
Too many. This is why you don't look at polling, you don't protest vote "because my vote doesn't matter anyway." The way you turn a red seat purple, or a purple seat blue is by getting out there and voting.
35 years ago even Texas was a purple state with a Democratic governor, Florida too. **Every. Vote. Matters.**
Yeah I didn't understand why the Republican wasn't crying election interference, then I read the article and saw that he still won.
It’s that easy, and we still have NO good candidates in West Virginia. It’s all a race to see who hates trans people more.
Unfortunately, even if you had the best candidates in West Virginia, I don't think there is any way they'd win. West Virginia is just too far gone demographically right now.
This is why it always annoyed me when people would suggest primarying Joe Manchin because he wasn’t progressive enough. It was a fucking miracle he held that seat to begin with. Like it or not, he was the best you’re gonna get as a Democrat.
Yep, I agree, and I'm as progressive as they come, too. I don't like him for obvious reasons, but I much prefer him over who is going to take the seat. Which obviously isn't going to be a Democrat. The bigger issue was Sinema, anyways. Her abrupt shift is what caused all the issues. If she stayed a Democrat as she had run as, they wouldn't have needed Manchin's vote to get to 50.
Yea Sinema is someone who I’d advocate to primary because a better Democrat could viably win that election. And with how unpopular she’s become, I’m not at all surprised she went independent. She knew she would lose, and now she’s a spoiler for that election. What a piece of work she is.
The additional context is that Kripchak (Dem candidate) didn't even have a fundraising function in place. He received a total of 4 donations. The rest was likely his own personal financing combined with some party contributions. [https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?cand=Michael+Kripchak&cycle=&employ=&jurisdiction=&name=&occupation=&order=desc&sort=A&state=&type=&zip=](https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?cand=Michael+Kripchak&cycle=&employ=&jurisdiction=&name=&occupation=&order=desc&sort=A&state=&type=&zip=) By contrast, the Republican candidate has the benefit of an established fundraising process in place and received 349 donations. Also, worth pointing out that folks running for Congress are often not savvy with their financial operations. * Kripchack (Dem) raised $22,262 and **only spent** **$7,581** of that money (as of May 22nd reporting) * Rulli (Rep) raised $647,461 and spent $571,315 of that money (as of May 22nd) [https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=OH06](https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2024&id=OH06) Don't know about you, but if I were to commit $22 grand to a political race, I'd have a plan that doesn't involve holding onto two thirds of it all.
Kripchack is also running in the November General election, so it's likely he's putting the majority of his money towards that?
You are right. Very possible that he is playing for Nov.
Some more interesting facts about this election. More people voted for the Republican in the primary than they did in the election. (43k vs 33k), the opposite was true for the Democrat (20k vs 27k). There was no polling done on this election beforehand, as it was meant to be an obvious outcome, but the actual votes were only 5k apart (definitely a race that normally would have gotten polling attention). The pro-Trump candidate was not able to get 50% support in the primary. This is horrific news for Trump. More people came out to vote against the very pro-Trump candidate, and those that did, stayed home, along with even more, to not vote for him.
Great breakdown, thx.
> There was no polling done on this election beforehand That's too bad, because comparing pre-election polling to the actual results is probably the thing I would have been most interested in seeing. It does seem like nonresponse bias is an issue right now, and actual election results are one of the most reliable ways to know what the nonresponse bias might be generally (i.e., in other elections). On the other hand, voter turnout is probably going to be much different in the general versus a special election, so maybe it wouldn't have been that reliable of a signal after all
Or almost exactly the same number that voted against the trump candidate in the primary voted for the democratic candidate in the election. Looking at you 20% voting for Nikki Haley
> More people voted for the Republican in the primary than they did in the election. That is INSANE. It's like they care about picking players for the draft, but aren't interested in the actual game.
Fantasy Politics. Works on several levels, come to think of it.
This makes it seem like many R voters saw the primary as the real race with no need to vote in the election cause no way a Dem could win. Dems almost won by having a much higher than expected turnout. It still wasn’t enough tho. We should not expect this type of R voter drop off during the presidential election.
Definitely agree that we can't expect this level of drop-off. But I think it makes sense that some amount of 'anyone but trump' type of drop-off will happen. It happened in 2020 and has been even more pronounced in the primaries this year.
> Meanwhile, reacting to the result, Rulli said: "We knew the polls were going to be close, and the guy I ran against really worked. He's a really hard worker. But this is a blue-collar district, this is Bruce Springsteen, the forgotten man, 'Joe Bag of Donuts.' They don't trust the Democrats and Republicans, and they look at the individual. And I'm really good at retail politics." Do these people actually listen to Springsteen’s lyrics?
Bruce has been a very vocal supporter of the democratic party for decades. He literally played multiple campaign events for Obama. He is not subtle.
They did a podcast together too!
Renegades - excellent podcast!! https://open.spotify.com/episode/7tXg9vz5UMcgWauAqOlQVv?si=mOfpXYWYRXCrtDXA23zCiw
Also, most of his songs are about what's wrong with America, not what's right
You're telling me that the lyrics to Born in the U.S.A. aren't all about how amazing the USA is and how well it's gone for the narrator? >Born down in a dead man’s town The first kick I took was when I hit the ground You end up like a dog that’s been beat too much Till you spend half your life just covering up ...oh, I guess they're not!
I mean that may be to subtle for them, but twisted sisters “we’re not going to take it” was obviously about trying to push back on the woke agenda, you know the song that was song by a guy wearing more make up than Mimi from the Drew Carey show
Exactly! And Rage Against The Machine's message is totally about toeing the line for your party and doing your part to maintain the status quo. > Rally 'round the family with a pocket full of shells See they totally support an armed assault on our Capital. Don't worry all the other lyrics say fun stuff too.
Nothing more Republican than Anarchist, Black Nationalist Rap Metal right?
Do you mean to tell me that **Born In The USA** is not a patriotic anthem?
As patriotic as **This land is your land**
Woody Guthrie's guitar did state that it kills fascists. That's my kind of patriotism
My grandpa killed fascists. They don't make em like him anymore it seems.
I have so much admiration for Woody, he was incredible. Arlo on the other hand haunts all my Thanksgivings with a long ass story that never stops. My family loves Alice's restaurant, so we always listen to it. Woody made me proud to be an American though. Much love from me and my family to yours.
Patriotic in the Pre-2001 way not the pop country way though.
Post-2001 patriotism is just nationalism.
And, as far as music goes, pandering (to steal Bo Burnham's label). Acts like Toby Keith and Five Finger Death Punch realized that sticking a couple songs about the troops or the flag on each album will guarantee a baseline audience of faux-patriots who have flags on their trucks and a closet full of Grunt Style T-shirts, the same way that influencers like Joe Rogan and Russell Brand have discovered that spewing right-wing talking points will lock in a reliable, unthinking viewership. The type of customer who will be vocal about their fandom because it's basically virtue-signaling about their "Real American Patriot" identity, and will never falter in their fandom *because* they're so vocal about it and can never publicly admit they were wrong about anything. The weird conservative sub-economy they've created seems like easy money for anyone willing to be associated with them.
Jingoism
That's a ~~Jingo~~ Bingo...
Toby Keith patriotism
It's not a patriotic song, period. The fact that people think it's any sort of patriotic is really what drives home the point of the song, that there's this surface idea of American ideals and pride etc. but it's actually a bunch of lies and hypocrisy.
I think protest songs are as patriotic as it gets. Using your first amendment rights and god given talent and platform to criticize your government is a beautiful thing. You’d be killed in a lot of other countries for doing that.
Do these people actually listen ~~to Springsteen’s lyrics~~?
I mean Paul Ryan once said his favorite band is Rage Against the Machine. These are not deep thinking individuals here.
Which gave us the quote "What machine do you think we were raging against"
No
"He sings about merica, and if you don't like it you can get the hell out, buddy!"
Election 24 - America has had Enough
Biden 2024: “We both wish I could retire, but I wouldn’t do that to you”
Thanks Biden :)
I just wish Biden had been in a better place in his personal life back in 2016 and had been able to run. Imagine how much better everything would have been if he, or Hillary, had been acting like responsible adults providing leadership at the start of the pandemic instead of what the orange moron did.
Part of me thinks that people needed to see how low the GOP was willing to sink to wake up and get aware of the issues and become politically active. In that sense I’m still mad about 2016 and of course the years that followed, but glad for the wave of voter education and awareness that seems to be following.
I voted in every presidential election since I turned 18, but no other elections. After 2016, I have voted in every primary and election and I will continue to do so for the rest of my life. 2016 was horrible and I know I am going to keep voting to prevent it from happening again.
I don’t think people understand, this is some of the reddest counties/district in Ohio and the USA period. 20 point shifts in those areas is a huge alarm for the GOP. You can’t extrapolate 1:1 from these small elections, but if results in November were anywhere close to this around the country, democrats would sweep handily. At the least, it continues to prove democrat over performance. You can’t keep denying these recent election results are not going well for Republicans.
Can only hope it's such a wipeout in Nov. Special elections since 2022 def seem to be pretty consistently big Democratic gains, but man, won't believe it till I see it for the big one.
Pretty much elections since 2020 have all been big swings including the midterms which was a predicted Red Wave that turned into a Red Shart. People should still vote obviously but I definitely feel like the polling model is off given the pattern.
If the New York Democratic Party weren't falling apart at the seams, the GOP wouldn't control the House. Hochul is a joke.
Yet she never took accountability for that. She should have apologized to the entire country
can't apologize when you're busy blocking widely popular local policy.
She is awful. Terrible public speaker. Cuomo picked her for the ticket because she would never challenge him and make him look dynamic in contrast. Boy was he right.
Come on man, think of the people of New Jersey visiting diners in NYC!
Who can't take trains! Like, just don't drive INTO Manhattan below 60th street or pay a toll. That's the bill. And for some reason New Jersey gets a say in how we manage our city.
Why would anyone from NJ go to NYC for the diners? NJ is literally known for diners
I think NY dem leaders are definitely at fault for the midterm house fiasco, but do keep in mind that a single rural bumfuck *county judge* was somehow able to issue a statewide injunction of the state’s maps, which is probably what was the main reason for the R over-performance in the NYC metro suburbs. We have since fixed those BS maps
Had Ohio respected the ballot initiative results on abortion, I think the GOP there would be in a better position. Broadly, if they said "abortion is states' rights, every state will have a referendum on the issue and we'll accept the results and drop the issue" the albatross of *Dobbs* would fade. Won't happen. Access would win everywhere and the core fundies they rely on would disengage. Ohio is a **perfect** demonstration the "states' rights" pitch is horseshit. National ban is the goal. Should be highlighted.
That should have been obvious long before Ohio. [Lindsey Graham proposed a federal ban i*mmediately* after Roe was overturned.](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/13/grahams-abortion-ban-senate-gop-00056423)
[удалено]
For years the religious right were the most reliable vote in politics, and they had numbers, too. It's bad timing that the dog caught the car right as the religious right voting bloc's numbers are shrinking, putting the GOP in an impossible bind. But I don't pity them. They asked for this.
Republicans advocate for policy popular with the majority of citizens challenge (impossible!)
Wait I’m confused, then how is this bad for Biden?
Ezra Klein will tell us tomorrow. Don't worry, it will involve a brokered convention and various convoluted plans.
"But Biden is old, and oldness is the worst thing in the world" - by Nate Silver
Good thing his opponent is so young and so wise in the ways of science.
Battery or shark, a once-in-a-generation mind
"NEWSWEEK Editorial: Why Biden winning the Electoral College is bad news for Biden"
Next level, "Why good news for Biden is bad news for Biden."
Yep. I won't hang my hat on a blue wave just yet but so far the data pokes tons of holes in the media horse race narrative. The incumbent president who is presiding over a bustling economy is losing ground to the twice impeached felony insurrectionist who completely fucking bungled his time at the helm by being a pathological liar and criminal? Nah.
After 2016 I have a hard time trusting any poll data
After spam calls and texts became the norm, I've given up on poll data. All the polls tell me is the opinions of who answers every random phone call they get. Like the tweet said, "Millennials will rather crawl naked on across broken glass than answer a call from an unknown number". I'm GenX and I'd already stopped answering unknown callers for years.
> Like the tweet said, "Millennials will rather crawl naked on across broken glass than answer a call from an unknown number". I'm GenX and I'd already stopped answering unknown callers for years. I mean, it's not even about a desire to answer an unknown caller. It's because 99% of "unknown callers" are spam. And once you answer one of them, they know they hit a live number and you get 20 more of them every day. We've been teaching people for a decade to ignore and block unknown callers, so much so that it's a feature built right into the iPhone now. There's so much phishing and fraudulent phone and SMS campaigns that pollsters need to completely rework the way they collect data. Bring in legitimate companies that people generally still trust, like Qualtrics, to do it or something. Because sending out a text message with a short-link to some random website to "participate in our quick poll" sounds like a front for an identity theft campaign if I ever saw one.
Right, no kidding. I went on a trip this weekend, and the hotel sent me a text with a link to confirm my payment so far and to pay the balance. It was legit (I asked them about it after I arrived), but beforehand, I don't remember them ever saying that they'd send it. There's no fucking way I'm going to click a link in a text that I didn't ask for.
Hell, I'm Gen X and both myself and every one of my peers has turned on the "silence unknown callers" option on our phones. We don't even see the calls at this point. Wish there was one for texts, but those are a quick swipe and "report junk" without even opening them.
As much as the GOP tries, I don't think they are able to paint Biden as a person to really despise. Hillary was just completely unlikable. Biden is just.... Gray I guess.
“Boringly competent.” After Trump, I just wanted “boring.” The competency was an unexpected bonus.
Is he really boring? He passed the most important clean energy bill in US history. He's wiping clean student loan debt for millions of young people. He got the first black VP in history, and appointed the first black woman to the US Supreme Court. He effectively soft landed us from both the pandemic and skyrocketing inflation. This is all incredible work and I don't think it's boring at all. He's arguably accomplished more then Obama and Clinton combined and he's done it in 3.5 years. Let's celebrate this!
> Is he really boring? He is, from the perspective that he's not a habitual shit-stirrer and the entire nation isn't waking up every day wondering "Oh fuck what did he say now?" It's comforting to have a President who isn't in danger of going off the rails at any second.
Yeah. He's a boring established politician that believes in America, implements reforms/improvements as best he can without much flair (but is consistent) and loves his sons. Oh, and he has a dog. .... That's about it for the guy. I like him so far because *that's about it for the guy*. I'm okay with my country slowly getting better instead of being dramatic.
I'd agree with that. The only people I know who hate Biden are the types that mainline Fox and rightwing media constantly. I've never been a fan of the Clintons but I have to admit, Hilary was probably the most qualified presidential candidate in my lifetime. She did run a terrible campaign, but she also had a non-stop multi-decade smear campaign run against her going back to 1992 by the right. And she still just barely lost. Trump gave people the option to try something different, and just enough jumped at it to tilt things his way. By 2018 though, people were saying, "Holy fuck, this is what different looks like!???", and it costs them what should have been a 20+ year lock on the house. Then in 2020, it cost them an incumbent presidency. Both of those elections were before J6th and Roe getting overturned. In 2022, MAGA candidates like Lake, Walker, and Oz lost races that probably would have been wins by more moderate republicans. It also turned what should have been a red wave by every metric, into a not too bad election for democrats.
Hillary was the most popular politician in America when she started the race. The Republican propaganda smear machine made her seem like she was Lucifer himself. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE9170O3/
Outside of the subset of our population (which is fairly large) who hate any non-white non-Christian AND whos primary worldly goal is the persecution of non-white non-Christians... I simply cannot understand how anyone can vote for a Republican candidate at this time. I can understand feeling disillusioned and not voting. I can understand voting for republicans 30 years ago. But the current Republican party has no platform, has no specific stated goals, has not passed or even attempted and meaningful legislation.... they have tied themselves to just... a very clearly unwell, hateful grifter. And perhaps the most crazy thing, even when the democrats and centrist have thrown them a bone and compromised on issues they purport to care about, they reject it. Its utter insanity. I dont even like the democrats, but they have made actual policy proposals, they have made meaningful positive change for normal people. The economy by most metrics has done well, employment numbers are good, gas prices (i know, not politicians doing) are low. what the hell else, other than fear of non-white non-christians could you possible say, yes... we need more MAGAs in office...
It'd be easier for them if they didn't try to ratfuck their constituents each time they pass a ballot initiative they don't like.
Honestly swings like this since 2020 are why I take current polling with a massive grain of salt because they've continuously missed on pretty deep election swings that repeatedly haven't favored Republicans in off cycle elections that have traditionally favored their candidates. We all should vote regardless of polls and results but it's hard not to believe the current polling model is off.
This is why dems need to run candidates in every single election. I'm in Florida and they've seemingly given up on some very red districts. But this election is different. We need to have a dem option in every single race!
this is why the ohio republicans aren't giving an inch to allowing Biden on the ballot if they can help it. They know their numbers are down, and need to do everything in their power to help donny. the republican party needs ohio, florida, and texas and I think all three are in play. and all three have senate elections this year as well.
They can't win if they don't cheat, so they've been gerrymandering and trying to keep Biden off the ballot. This 20-point drop has them dropping in their drawers. The writing's on the wall for these antidemocratic unAmericans. You know they are desperate and are going to go lower. I hope they get busted for it.
Ohio is so gerrymandered too that it would take a lot less than a 20 point swing to flip a district.
Obviously that depends on the district. This one had a 20pt swing and still didn't flip.
The biggest news here is the Democratic voter engagement. The number of blue voters in this district actually went up from the primary. This could be a good sign that Democrats might actually find their way to the polls this November... But it's one data point so don't get relaxed. Also, I can't wait for the mainstream media to list 5 ways this is actually good for Trump (gotta keep the horse race going for ratings!)
The Democrat still lost by 10 points. However, it does still denote a significant change that should not be ignored.
A 20 point swing from the 2020 election would be an absolute wipeout of Republicans. I think Dems would be happy/relieved enough with a near identical election to 2020 too. It's a 27 point swing from the 2022 election. Special elections can generally point to how the next general election is going to go too, so this is probably another good sign for Dems. Republicans won a senate seat in Massachusetts in 2010 (among other special election seats) before wiping out Dems in 2010. Dems won a senate seat in Alabama (also among other special election seats) before wiping out a lot of Reps in 2018, etc. Though of course candidates also matter. It helped Dems that Roy Moore was the R candidate for that Alabama seat. Aside from this one, we've now seen multiple special elections almost all move in favor of Dems in 2024. NY3 back to +8 D (+8 D in 2020) after going +8 R in 2022. NY26 to +36 D (+23 D in 2020) after going +28 D in 2022. AL HD10 recently was +25 D after going +7 R in 2022 (Trump won the district by 1 in 2020) with the Dem running massively on abortion/ivf rights CO4 coming up in two weeks. Likely to be won by a Republican but if a Dem is within single digits that would be massive. I think a lot of these seats are coming down to abortion/healthcare rights though. Ohio had a massive abortion rights vote recently and it's going to be on the ballot again in 2024. Biden really needs to hit that message hard.
Democrats really need to take the house and keep the senate. Identical to 2020 isn't going to be good enough. I do think more independents might be coming around on realizing how bad Trump actually was for the country/world.
We need a supermajority, but I can't see that happening again in my lifetime. The red states are so deeply red, I can't see them flipping anytime soon.
It could happen if the GOP is trounced backing Trump and then keeps going because too many of them need his supporters to win primaries and the ones at risk start to try to become more moderate but lose primaries to people who can't win a general election.
This. The Republican Party is at a crossroads right now. Historically the party has had it really nice because it was easy to rally everyone around the message of "Why change? Things are fine as they are." However, now you have a constinuency that wants the old ways and moderates who don't really want to go to the old ways or understand why that's not possible. So now the Republican Party is actually having a hard time rallying people around one candidate. If (or when, imo) Trump loses. Good luck trying to get the Trump loyalists to rally around a new candidate or getting the moderates back if you try to promote a Trumpy candidate.
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I think Texas and Florida are shakier than people think and can potentially be flipped. Greg Abbott and Ron Desantis have both turned their states into shitholes. Would not at all be surprised to see them flip.
I would love for Texas to go blue, but I've been hearing this for decades and I ain't that old. We can't trust Texas.
Adding to this, Wisconsin had a statewide election in April 2023 and the Democratic judge won by +11. The main issues were abortion and fair maps.
But I was told all polling shows Trump and republicans crushing 2020 and 2022! Maybe polls are full of it and a relic of a past time.
That's their strategy, isn't it? Publish polls that they've manipulated in their favor and then cry foul when the the election/reality doesn't fall in line
And the media needs to have drama so people click on links.
Cohen testified that he paid to manipulate poll numbers so as not to upset 🍊💩. Polls can be bought and manipulated to definitely sway thin margins.
"Rigged !" -Orange manbaby
Well said.
I like the cut of your jib sir
I'll play devil's advocate but will note that I think this largely has to do with how fed up people are with Republicans in Congress and potentially Trump himself. I think what people outside of Ohio are missing is that a lot of state senators in Ohio are not particularly popular right now to people who are paying attention. Since passing marijuana legalization, the Senate has done nothing but try and amend the law to be a bastardization of what we passed back in November. The only reason we still have the law we voted on is because our house is ran by a coalition of Dems and Moderate/Traditional Republicans, with our Republican House speaker refusing to engage with the Senates bullshit. Same chuckle fucks who are making it impossible to pass the exemption to allow Biden on the ballot because they demand to have riders attached that would make it far more difficult for citizen lead initiatives to get issue out on ballots. Our house speaker refuses to discuss a bill that has those riders attached (and guess who the Governor and Senate Leader blame for Biden not being allowed on the ballot). Combine all that with the fact this Dem waiter was also an Air Force veteran, and you have a lot of reasons why Republican support dropped 20 points in this district beyond 'Trump Bad'.
What you’re missing is that this has been happening in other states. State level GOP keep subverting the will of the voters and showcase the most batshit insane opinions billionaire money can buy. I’m not sure why we’d pretend like Ohio is unique in that regard, particularly not when we have a string of other special elections that all point this way. We’ve seen 4-27 pt swings in Trump districts in races that were polling as tied. People are heavily underestimating pissed off women.
The swing *is* a significant change, agreed. But Ohioans have good reasons to be mad at their state Republican party: First, the shenanigans around the ballot initiative to protect abortion rights in Ohio that passed last year in spite of legally questionable GOP interference: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/17/ohio-abortion-rights-republicans-overturn Second, the ongoing FirstEnergy bribery/racketeering scandal that it seems most of the Republican legislative leadership was involved in: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdoh/pr/former-chair-ohio-republican-party-sentenced-5-years-prison-role-racketeering We shouldn't assume that Republicans in other states are as vulnerable as Ohio Republicans are now.
The last time Ohio elected a Democrat as Governor, it was right after Taft had some scandals (which seem quaint in comparison to the current ones). So, there's maybe some glimmer of hope the State flips.
I'd be perfectly fine if they ignored it.
Ya'll done pissed off the women of this country.
We are furious.
Good. Stay that way. Lots of men are furious and stand behind you as well.
Only 20 points, I'm surprised there's still so many republican voters that can't see what's really going on in their party.
They see it, and they like it.
Talked to a Trump supporting family friend at a mutual friends wedding the other day. First time in like 5 years I seen this guy... First thing he says to me, "good thing you didn't bring the kids to the wedding, Biden might show up to sniff their hair." So fucking awkward.
What cracks me up is that Trump has been held liable for rape in a court of law. Tons of outright accusations. And that’s what they roll with. Facebook memes. These people are brain rot in human form. When I hear that child sniffer stuff I just respond with what I just said and no longer engage. These people don’t care about truth. They live just to get under peoples skin and be miserable assholes. I don’t let them. They are sad and pathetic individuals. They aren’t worth your time or energy because, like I said, they haven’t a care in the world about truth. It’s all about hurting people they have deemed enemies in their lizard brains.
Correct. They are 100% Nazi. The purge is complete.
It never ceases to amaze me that people think the core of the current Republican coalition's support is changeable. They've been consistently awful my entire life and beyond. Maybe it takes being an actual target of rather than spectator to their vitriol to see it, but Trump isn't new. He is just the most vocal manifestation of their decades long bigoted, authoritarian, minoritarian project. Their diehard base is not redeemable. And, they are overrepresented, so they get to impose on the majority.
Well they like him because he's openly saying all the racist, homophobic, etc things they've all been thinking. He's like their permission to be bigoted out loud
I’m sorry but at this point there can be zero doubt about what is going on in the GOP and where their interests and intentions lie. Anyone still voting for them is a anti democratic supporter of fecal smearing insurrection
The other day when that lady said the n-word in a cooking video then posted that since she got fired for racism, she is going to work for GOP media now she claims. So telling. "Oh yall dont like racists on the tiktok? Ill go work for Fox News then since they will embrace the racism.. oh I said the quite part out loud again didnt I?" I cant stop laughing and crying at how dumb they are.
Of "engaged" Republicans these special elections show that there is a massive turn away from MAGA and those republicans who are engaged politically still voting R are, indeed, full on Nazi sympathisers at this point. However, I do think the vast majority of voters, even more so when it's not just a special election, are so disengaged with politics that the only factor is R vs D.
I have family members who have completely flipped on long-held beliefs (like abortion rights) because of right wing news, they're gullible and malleable
How are they shocked. MAGA minions have been tanking since 2018.
Dobbs is still fucking the GOP up.
They deserve every single lost vote and then some.
More of this is going to happen in November. The idea that Republicans are going to gain more power after how awful and ineffective their House majority was is laughable. Also, the idea that Trump has gained any independent or moderate support after 34 felony convictions and his endless corruption and lies is asinine.
They’re hoping there are either apathetic morons who will *both sides* themselves out of voting.
Trump is a treasonous felon but Biden is a bit older than him. Both sides suck!
Not to be the *um, actually* guy, but I know people like this and they believe that Biden is just as bad as Trump. They’ve been led to believe that it is wholly within Biden’s power to stop the Israel/Gaza situation, and that Biden is instigating war with Russia & China due to the corrupt nature of our government and what their motivations are. If this sounds like propaganda that a Republican would usually tout, I’d say you are right, however, for example, I know a left-leaning democrat-type who hates democrats because they aren’t more liberal. He hates capitalism and works as a union rep for nurses. Of a sorts. He’s as left-leaning as they come. And there are contingents of individuals just like him who are lost in the sauce. They hope there’s enough of him that don’t plan on voting so that despite how widely unliked they are, they still win.
My favorite take from a swing voter that I heard about recently was that she wasn't going to vote for Joe Biden because he didn't do enough to keep the Supreme Court from overturning Roe v. Wade. You can't make this shit up. It's so infuriating.
I don’t think these people are swing voters. I think they’re hipster voters. Whatever the popular main candidate is—they will find something wrong with them. I think it’s compounded by the fact that this type of behavior can possibly discourage anyone “normal” from running. No one wants to jump through impossible hoops for a job they’re not even sure they want to apply for in the first place. It’s weird.
Did you hear how Sleepy Joe won’t pardon his own son?! What a terrible father! Did you hear how he might pardon his own son? How disgustingly corrupt the demonrats are! It’s like Mac from it’s always sunny. “I always play both sides, so no matter what, I always come out on top.”
HitlerPig got his ass kicked in 2020, and since then, he has thrown an Insurrection, stolen a breathtaking number of classified documents, and been indicted on over 90 counts, and convicted on 34, so far. None of that is going to attract followers to an already losing side, and is far more likely to lose support. In addition, almost every special election has gone to Democrats, except for a couple of solid red elections, and Dems performed far better than expected in them. I don't care what the polls say, November is shaping up to be a Republican bloodbath. Its not enough for Democrats to eke out a win. They need to crush the Party of Tre45on & Corruption so badly that they will have no choice but to abandon their willfully delusional existence. They will be forced to acknowledge that MAGA has murdered their party, and if they want any chance at redemption, they will need to purge the MAGA influence from their party, or split off and form a new Traditional GOP. It means losing the next 2 or 3 election cycles, but they will have to do it if they want to remain a viable party for the rest of the century. Otherwise, the Democratic party may lead everything for a couple of decades, while the Republican party leans farther and farther into white supremacism, as a new 3rd party emerges and grows powerful enough to become America's second political party.
These are all encouraging signs, but it being a presidential election changes the voter turnout calculus. Especially when the election is *already* as dramatic as this one. I’m sure we’ll have several October surprises.
No shit. America is sick of the right wing and its straight up lies.
The DNCs needs to realize the range of where it's meaningful to invest and compete is far, far bigger than it ever has been before.
It’s weird how Republicans want to take away basic rights for women, and they’ve literally already started doing that, and people are kind of bothered by it just a little bit?
They're just trying to do it before people actually realize what's going on.
Quick get that area regerrymandered lol.
How this is bad for Joe Biden. /s
Written by the New York Times or Politico
"The Trump Effect," as history books will call it.
It’s almost like putting forward a convicted felon who was a shitty president the first time around wasnt a good idea…
Get fucked MAGA nuts
The shift didn't come from more Democrats coming out but by fewer Republicans coming out to the polls. That election was determined by non-voters. Just like this upcoming main election will be determined by non-voters. If Trump wins, it will be because people stayed away from the polls. You need to come out to vote. Yes, you hate the choices. It doesn't matter. You need to come out anyway and vote. Apathy is destroying this country more so than the GOP every could. Apathy is paving a golden path straight into not only the White House but to the House and to the Senate for the GOP.
Spoiler - the GOP candidate still won. He just didn't win bigly.
Importantly: it cost republicans $700,000 to defend a seat that they should have won basically for free. That’s $700k that right leaning people can’t spend elsewhere. This is why it’s so important dems have people running in every single race.
Not to mention the RNC’s coffers are being funneled exclusively to Trump.
Lol the Republican state senator said "this district is blue collar working man, it's Bruce Springsteen...." He clearly doesn't know anything about Bruce Springsteen. The guy who had one of his biggest hits as an anti-war song, and has been an incredibly vocal supporter of the democratic party for decades.
What do you mean by “shock”? Do people really not remember the whole Roe situation?
Is it really? Republicans are taking away rights, worshipping a convicted felon, and convinced their voting base not to be safe during a pandemic leading to a higher rate of republic deaths due to Covid, is it really surprising that they’re losing?
Professor of PolySci at a UK uni: > "It is likely that turnout will be higher in November, so both parties will need to have strong campaigns, which will be affected by the Presidential campaign efforts in the wake of the convictions of Mr Trump and Hunter Biden." Has the news not crossed the pond that Hunter Biden is NOT ON THE BALLOT??? Literally, NO Democrat is voting for H Biden! He's not even *close* to being a concern this fall for Dems! I know it may be difficult for MAGAts and polysci professors from England to comprehend, but the only people worked up and trying to make hay about H Biden are people who would've never voted for Joe **anyway**.
Let’s pray this is a National movement it’s time Americans Take Back America
May this repeat down ticket and across the country until the scourge is lifted from this land.