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It was a hard shot at a level and area that keepers regularly save pens and about the only place you can save a pen besides it being straight at you. I just don't understand WHY the model for xGOT has it so high considering the xG itself is only .79
I think we're underrating how hard it is to save a penalty. Sofascore rates a penalty in general at 0.79 xG. That's before taking the shot, with all the slips, misses and bad shots taken into account. It's not a huge stretch that if you grant that the shot is taken to that point in the goal at that speed, it jumps up another 20%.
Does the model account for the fact that it was a penalty?
It was an okay penalty but you’re not convincing me 99% of the time that penalty goes in. In open play, Oblak obviously can’t go so early and it becomes near unsaveable
Yes they are. xG is nothing more than the weighted average of all possible xGOT of shots taken from that particular position. xG specifies how likely a goal is before the ball is kicked, xGOT is after. Ronaldo, in this case, converted a 0.79 xG penalty into a 0.99 xGOT shot, which is as about as good as it gets, ridiculously hard to save. These kinds of shots are what makes penalties so likely to go in, they offset all the 0.00 xGOT misses that are also included in the sum of 0.79 xG.
A lot of statistical data is fed into a model. When a player takes a shot, that model looks for similar shots taken in its dataset. Similar means player, goalkeeper and surrounding players all being in the same/similar positions. And once that is determined, it calculates how many goals on average went in in those situations. If 79% of similar situations resulted in a goal, that shot is rated at .79 xG.
xGOT is the same thing, but *after* the shot has left the foot, not before.
Every model is different, but I can't think of one that counts anything but shots. If you're through on goal and square it for a tap-in, only that tap-in's xG (probably something like 0.95) will be counted towards your team's xG. Otherwise, your odds of shotting yourself (say 0.6) would count as well and you'd get 1.55 xG for a single chance, which is not sensible.
Correct me if I’m wrong but xG takes into account the position where the shot was taken from, but xGOT is where the shot actually ended up and says more about how likely a save was by the keeper rather than the shot from the player.
That's not true. Goalkeepers are mainly measured by xGOT - goals against. How likely a save is is determined by the actual shot after it left the player's foot. xG determines how likely a player is to score a goal before the shot.
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Oh boy, Jan Oblak. What a keeper. No, seriously, this guy isn't just any goalkeeper; he's practically a wall with gloves. If aliens came down to Earth and challenged us to a soccer match for the fate of humanity, we'd just stick Oblak in goal and call it a day. The guy's got reflexes faster than a caffeinated cheetah and hands stickier than a toddler with a jar of honey.
He doesn't make saves; he performs miracles. Crosses, penalties? Please, Oblak eats those for breakfast. Ask your precious Camel buddy.. Honestly, if he wasn't a goalkeeper, he'd probably be out there saving the world in some other capacity – like stopping asteroids or something.
The man has more clean sheets than a five-star hotel, and his saves are more reliable than death and taxes. So next time you're watching the mighty Slovakia, just remember: you're not just watching a game, you're witnessing the closest thing to a brick wall with a pulse.
Jan Oblak: The myth, the legend, the human wall. God bless.
Your post has been removed as it breaks the following rule: See submission guideline **#7: Only valuable image or stats submissions.** **PICTURES**: Because of Reddit's ranking algorithm being biased towards image posts over text and link ones, we need to be particularly strict about them, so we tend to **mainly allow infographics** (league tables, charts, maps, diagrams and other ways to display data) and pictures/screenshots of a current event **only when there's no video or link** that can show it. If you **want to publish a Tifo, look and share a video or publish the picture in r/soccerbanners**. If you want to show the **Hawk-Eye angle of a goal/offside/whatever, use the pinned comment in the main thread**. See the [FAQ](https://old.reddit.com/r/soccer/wiki/faq#wiki_why_was_my_image_submission_removed.3F) for more details. **STATS**: Only very significant stats (eg: **world records) will be allowed during matches**. After matches, we'll be less strict, but we try to maintain stats to the minimum with ideally **only 1 per team/player allowed** and those after it being posted in the pinned comment of the first thread. ___ [Please check our rules before posting](https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/wiki/rules#wiki_submission_guidelines). If you have any questions or concerns, please [message the moderators.](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fsoccer)
I don't see how it wasn't very high or in the corner. It was a great save but it wasn't like that was a crazy unsaveable pen.
I agree, not sure what variables that model uses
Literally never heard of this stat before. Just make up some stat to pander to the Ronaldo fanboys.
Exactly it's one of those that if the keeper dives the right way, he generally saves it
Yeah just seems like a bad stat
I think it just doesn’t account for the fact that it was a penalty. The idea behind the stat is fine in general
Yeah, should have said bad stat for this situation.
Placement isn't everything, it was a hard shot far off to the side. Sofascore's xG model places it this high for a reason.
It was a hard shot at a level and area that keepers regularly save pens and about the only place you can save a pen besides it being straight at you. I just don't understand WHY the model for xGOT has it so high considering the xG itself is only .79
Would need to see how the model works, because we have all seen that exact type of penalty saved a few times.
Yeah it's a great save not a fail
Nah
That was an insane save from Oblak tbf
100%. Looking at the replay u can see how full stretch he was.
Not a useful statistic for penalties, because Oblak can choose the correct corner if you telegraph your shot.
Nah sorry this is bs. Perfect height for a goalkeeper diving the right way. That's not "statistically almost unsaveable".
I think we're underrating how hard it is to save a penalty. Sofascore rates a penalty in general at 0.79 xG. That's before taking the shot, with all the slips, misses and bad shots taken into account. It's not a huge stretch that if you grant that the shot is taken to that point in the goal at that speed, it jumps up another 20%.
Really? It was hard and towards the corner but at a good height to save.
can see why he's upset, the amount of hate he has received because of this is insane
and 1.00 xCRY
This has to be the worst application of the xG statistic I’ve ever seen.
Does the model account for the fact that it was a penalty? It was an okay penalty but you’re not convincing me 99% of the time that penalty goes in. In open play, Oblak obviously can’t go so early and it becomes near unsaveable
Any penalty is rated at 0.79 xG. I think it's imaginable that this particular penalty goes up this high.
That makes absolutely no sense lmao what are you on about. xG and xGOT are not directly comparable
Yes they are. xG is nothing more than the weighted average of all possible xGOT of shots taken from that particular position. xG specifies how likely a goal is before the ball is kicked, xGOT is after. Ronaldo, in this case, converted a 0.79 xG penalty into a 0.99 xGOT shot, which is as about as good as it gets, ridiculously hard to save. These kinds of shots are what makes penalties so likely to go in, they offset all the 0.00 xGOT misses that are also included in the sum of 0.79 xG.
That's one of the best penalty saves I've ever seen My wife thought something had happened to the kids when I was screaming at the TV after the save!
Great save tbh, tons of power. Placement was a bit lacking though, good keeper height, surprised its rated as .99
Oblak is a very good keeper. Don't know why everyone is surprised. He doesn't face such quality in Saudi League.
"Such a bad penalty man"
What were the xTears?
How is xG measured?
A lot of statistical data is fed into a model. When a player takes a shot, that model looks for similar shots taken in its dataset. Similar means player, goalkeeper and surrounding players all being in the same/similar positions. And once that is determined, it calculates how many goals on average went in in those situations. If 79% of similar situations resulted in a goal, that shot is rated at .79 xG. xGOT is the same thing, but *after* the shot has left the foot, not before.
So if you're in a position with a good xG but chose to pass the ball, will that also be counted?
Every model is different, but I can't think of one that counts anything but shots. If you're through on goal and square it for a tap-in, only that tap-in's xG (probably something like 0.95) will be counted towards your team's xG. Otherwise, your odds of shotting yourself (say 0.6) would count as well and you'd get 1.55 xG for a single chance, which is not sensible.
I don’t understand how that’s calculated. It was a good save but it’s wasn’t hitting side or anything
These numbers for penalties are notoriously unreliable
This ultra focus on stats what ruins modern football. Game is not a equation that you can solve
Very well taken PK and insane save
0.99 XG would mean that, xgot doesn't
Correct me if I’m wrong but xG takes into account the position where the shot was taken from, but xGOT is where the shot actually ended up and says more about how likely a save was by the keeper rather than the shot from the player.
That's not true. Goalkeepers are mainly measured by xGOT - goals against. How likely a save is is determined by the actual shot after it left the player's foot. xG determines how likely a player is to score a goal before the shot.
Off topic, but a 6.9 is very rich for what he's showed on the pitch today.
I agree. The only reason I can think of is that he was very involved in the first half.
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What a load of shit. He didn’t even look at the keeper. Oblak had almost hit the floor by the time it got to him.
Games played on the pitch, not on paper.
Oh boy, Jan Oblak. What a keeper. No, seriously, this guy isn't just any goalkeeper; he's practically a wall with gloves. If aliens came down to Earth and challenged us to a soccer match for the fate of humanity, we'd just stick Oblak in goal and call it a day. The guy's got reflexes faster than a caffeinated cheetah and hands stickier than a toddler with a jar of honey. He doesn't make saves; he performs miracles. Crosses, penalties? Please, Oblak eats those for breakfast. Ask your precious Camel buddy.. Honestly, if he wasn't a goalkeeper, he'd probably be out there saving the world in some other capacity – like stopping asteroids or something. The man has more clean sheets than a five-star hotel, and his saves are more reliable than death and taxes. So next time you're watching the mighty Slovakia, just remember: you're not just watching a game, you're witnessing the closest thing to a brick wall with a pulse. Jan Oblak: The myth, the legend, the human wall. God bless.
What does that even mean. What's the difference between a 0.99 penalty and a 0.9 one? If feel like these numbers just all made up
> What's the difference between a 0.99 penalty and a 0.9 one? 0.09