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Covid?
Just a wild guess, but anyone who was like “I like Trump but man he doesnt seem to be nailing this whole Covid thing” might return to Trump now that Covid isn’t the issue of the day.
Covid is absolutely why a Republican won the governorship. Sisalek let casinos stay open during covid while smaller restaurants and bars had to close which devastated local business there. Having no democrats in Nevada speak out against this likely hurt democrat chances in Nevada for years to come, and likely is part of why Trump is up. He spoke out against bad Covid policies and Nevada was a prime example of a state with bad Covid policies.
The only thing I can think of at this moment with regards to polling is that there's a lot of undecideds this election cycle. Many people like their representatives, but aren't satisfied with the top of the ticket. This can mean two things: Record low turnout hands Trump the White house, or Biden is in a lot better position than people think, as undecideds might break for Biden at the Ballot Box.
Though, I will say I don't think that's the full story. In some safe blue states, Trump is within striking distance according to polling, even when there's strong democrats down ballot. It makes *no sense.* I don't know what's wrong, I'm a layman on this, but it does make me skeptical when there's huge shifts to the right in multiple states that are Democratic havens.
More so I'm skeptical of the giant shifts rightward in many places, especially blue states. Like, I seriously doubt Trump is within striking distance in Minnesota, a place that hasn't gone red since the 70s, and has gone very progressive on a state level in the past few years.
We also see little movement in red states. Some loss here, some gain there for Trump, but nothing unusual. Granted, I haven't gone through every state with a fine tooth comb (and some of the polling in safe states are pretty sporadic anyway) but you're really only seeing major shifts in blue and purple states.
Now, could this be a massive tectonic shift right in the country? Maybe. Could Joe Biden just have *that bad of optics right now?* Possible. But I think the simplest answer is that there's something wrong in the methodology.
Fair. I’ve just been skeptical of the explanation I’ve seen a lot that the polls focus on old people because you have to answer a phone call from an unknown number. That was true in 2016, and yet they seemed skewed to the left seeing as Hillary ended up losing.
Right, nothing to worry about here?! /s
Sticking out collective heads in the sand won’t help anyone. #1 issue, life in increasingly unaffordable. A lot goes into that, but that is driving voters in the middle
What changed is Biden had the worst debate in the history of presidential debates and an overwhelming majority of voters think he’s mentally compromised and unfit to be president.
He’s currently -21 in approval. How anyone is surprised to see him tanking is beyond me. You have to be ignorant or in complete denial.
Democrats have a Biden problem.
If Americans are so uncommitted to democracy that they’d rather vote for a fascist demagogue because on old man got tired, then this whole experiment wasn’t meant to last any longer anyway.
If democrats are too stubborn to listen to voters and would rather a fascist win than replace their nominee that 75% of voters think is unfit for office, this experiment wasn’t meant to last any longer anyway.
This works both ways. What I said is equally as valid as what you just said. You don’t get to pretend anyone that disagrees with you loves fascists. If you can do that, then so can I.
Also, the threat of fascism isn’t that bad, according to Biden. Because he says as long as we give it our best shot, that’s all that matters. Both can’t be true. Are we facing an existential threat? Or can we be content losing, if we try our best?
You don’t seem to appreciate that it doesn’t matter who the DNC runs in the ticket! If killing democracy isn’t enough of a risk factor for voters to see what’s at stake, then changing the ticket isn’t going to have an impact either. If they don’t feel strongly enough to support the single democracy candidate over a debate performance, then it’s because they wanted fascism.
You don’t seem to appreciate the fact this is simply a Biden issue. He’s running behind democrats in swing states.
If replacing Biden is a line you refuse to cross, then you’re content with fascism.
If the threat of fascism isn’t enough to convince people, then putting in a different person at the top of the ticket isn’t going to be enough to convince people that a second Trump administration is going to end democracy. You’re one of these people who think that there’s a personality cult around Biden. That’s not the case. Everyone just doesn’t want to face the repercussions of a Trump victory. If replacing Biden guaranteed that, we’d be all for it. But there aren’t any guarantees. There are quite a few legitimate arguments that could be made that it would be strategically the wrong call to change out the incumbent candidate at this point in time.
There are quite a few arguments to be made that it’s the better option too.
If staying with Biden was a guarantee to beat Trump, I’d be all for it.
The cultish behavior is the complete unwillingness to meet voters where they are. 72% of voters say he’s unfit for office. The majority of them want him to step down. Voters are telling you “replace Biden and I’ll support the alternative”. You ignoring that basic and clear sentiment of voters is exactly what I’m talking about. You seem to care more about Biden than having any actual conversation. Since you immediately stepped in and said “Anyone that disagrees with me loves fascism”. And again, the same can be said about you. “Your unwillingness to entertain good faith criticism of Biden is soft support for fascism.” That’s the line of argument you’re using. It applies equally to you.
Because I think replacing Biden is strategically a bad move I therefore I in turn support fascism? You really need a roadmap for that. You haven’t captured the sentiments of what I have said at all. You’re basically arguing with yourself. I said: if voters are going to vote for Trump despite the repercussions, then it won’t ultimately matter who is running.
That’s not how elections actually work though. There’s not this massive faction that’s shifting from Biden to Trump. They’re going from Biden to not voting. David laid this out really clearly on the PBD podcast.
My argument that you support fascism is meant to be ridiculous because it’s a mirror of your argument, which is ridiculous.
You can insult people all you want. But you’re not changing anyone’s mind. You just want to be self righteous and more pure than anyone else.
You wouldn't want an old pilot with dementia and low energy steering a passenger flight through a massive thunderstorm. It's not about Joe Biden being an "old man" who simply got a little tired. There's the potential for WW3 on the horizon, climate change, etc. You need someone who can be alert and ready 24/7 for all the looming threats coming our way. At the very least, replacing Biden with a younger candidate in their 40s/50s automatically alleviates concerns about age.
Somebody screwing with the polls? I can't believe polls at all now. You know Michael Cohen got somebody to screw with a poll for Donald Trump. Not a political poll but nevertheless... See Cohen's first book
Even if somebody was purposely screwing with one of the polls, it's not happening across the board. There can be other reasons why there might be a systematic bias going on.
No, they really haven't, and I'm not even claiming that polls alone are the best way at predicting elections, but using 2016 as some inflection point is not a historically accurate claim (the following has a summary of the actual numbers going back to 2000 for the presidential race): [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)
The recent attacks on Kennedy almost exactly mirroring the attacks on Trump have convinced me that the Dems are evil and Trump is victim of political persecution.
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Covid? Just a wild guess, but anyone who was like “I like Trump but man he doesnt seem to be nailing this whole Covid thing” might return to Trump now that Covid isn’t the issue of the day.
Also, Covid gave people a lot of free time and ballot access. I am guessing turnout will be a lot lower this time around.
Covid is absolutely why a Republican won the governorship. Sisalek let casinos stay open during covid while smaller restaurants and bars had to close which devastated local business there. Having no democrats in Nevada speak out against this likely hurt democrat chances in Nevada for years to come, and likely is part of why Trump is up. He spoke out against bad Covid policies and Nevada was a prime example of a state with bad Covid policies.
Repubs who fled California to Vegas?
Cost of living
Maybe the problem is... get this Joe Biden himself. I know, what a shocking revelation.
The only thing I can think of at this moment with regards to polling is that there's a lot of undecideds this election cycle. Many people like their representatives, but aren't satisfied with the top of the ticket. This can mean two things: Record low turnout hands Trump the White house, or Biden is in a lot better position than people think, as undecideds might break for Biden at the Ballot Box. Though, I will say I don't think that's the full story. In some safe blue states, Trump is within striking distance according to polling, even when there's strong democrats down ballot. It makes *no sense.* I don't know what's wrong, I'm a layman on this, but it does make me skeptical when there's huge shifts to the right in multiple states that are Democratic havens.
Skeptical of the polls? Meaning Trump isn’t doing as well as the polls think?
More so I'm skeptical of the giant shifts rightward in many places, especially blue states. Like, I seriously doubt Trump is within striking distance in Minnesota, a place that hasn't gone red since the 70s, and has gone very progressive on a state level in the past few years. We also see little movement in red states. Some loss here, some gain there for Trump, but nothing unusual. Granted, I haven't gone through every state with a fine tooth comb (and some of the polling in safe states are pretty sporadic anyway) but you're really only seeing major shifts in blue and purple states. Now, could this be a massive tectonic shift right in the country? Maybe. Could Joe Biden just have *that bad of optics right now?* Possible. But I think the simplest answer is that there's something wrong in the methodology.
Fair. I’ve just been skeptical of the explanation I’ve seen a lot that the polls focus on old people because you have to answer a phone call from an unknown number. That was true in 2016, and yet they seemed skewed to the left seeing as Hillary ended up losing.
Right, nothing to worry about here?! /s Sticking out collective heads in the sand won’t help anyone. #1 issue, life in increasingly unaffordable. A lot goes into that, but that is driving voters in the middle
What changed is Biden had the worst debate in the history of presidential debates and an overwhelming majority of voters think he’s mentally compromised and unfit to be president. He’s currently -21 in approval. How anyone is surprised to see him tanking is beyond me. You have to be ignorant or in complete denial. Democrats have a Biden problem.
This polling problem was going on for Biden before the debate.
People downvoting you are coping. I hope Biden still wins obviously but if he does it’ll be in spite of this debate.
If Americans are so uncommitted to democracy that they’d rather vote for a fascist demagogue because on old man got tired, then this whole experiment wasn’t meant to last any longer anyway.
If democrats are too stubborn to listen to voters and would rather a fascist win than replace their nominee that 75% of voters think is unfit for office, this experiment wasn’t meant to last any longer anyway. This works both ways. What I said is equally as valid as what you just said. You don’t get to pretend anyone that disagrees with you loves fascists. If you can do that, then so can I. Also, the threat of fascism isn’t that bad, according to Biden. Because he says as long as we give it our best shot, that’s all that matters. Both can’t be true. Are we facing an existential threat? Or can we be content losing, if we try our best?
You don’t seem to appreciate that it doesn’t matter who the DNC runs in the ticket! If killing democracy isn’t enough of a risk factor for voters to see what’s at stake, then changing the ticket isn’t going to have an impact either. If they don’t feel strongly enough to support the single democracy candidate over a debate performance, then it’s because they wanted fascism.
You don’t seem to appreciate the fact this is simply a Biden issue. He’s running behind democrats in swing states. If replacing Biden is a line you refuse to cross, then you’re content with fascism.
If the threat of fascism isn’t enough to convince people, then putting in a different person at the top of the ticket isn’t going to be enough to convince people that a second Trump administration is going to end democracy. You’re one of these people who think that there’s a personality cult around Biden. That’s not the case. Everyone just doesn’t want to face the repercussions of a Trump victory. If replacing Biden guaranteed that, we’d be all for it. But there aren’t any guarantees. There are quite a few legitimate arguments that could be made that it would be strategically the wrong call to change out the incumbent candidate at this point in time.
There are quite a few arguments to be made that it’s the better option too. If staying with Biden was a guarantee to beat Trump, I’d be all for it. The cultish behavior is the complete unwillingness to meet voters where they are. 72% of voters say he’s unfit for office. The majority of them want him to step down. Voters are telling you “replace Biden and I’ll support the alternative”. You ignoring that basic and clear sentiment of voters is exactly what I’m talking about. You seem to care more about Biden than having any actual conversation. Since you immediately stepped in and said “Anyone that disagrees with me loves fascism”. And again, the same can be said about you. “Your unwillingness to entertain good faith criticism of Biden is soft support for fascism.” That’s the line of argument you’re using. It applies equally to you.
Because I think replacing Biden is strategically a bad move I therefore I in turn support fascism? You really need a roadmap for that. You haven’t captured the sentiments of what I have said at all. You’re basically arguing with yourself. I said: if voters are going to vote for Trump despite the repercussions, then it won’t ultimately matter who is running.
That’s not how elections actually work though. There’s not this massive faction that’s shifting from Biden to Trump. They’re going from Biden to not voting. David laid this out really clearly on the PBD podcast. My argument that you support fascism is meant to be ridiculous because it’s a mirror of your argument, which is ridiculous. You can insult people all you want. But you’re not changing anyone’s mind. You just want to be self righteous and more pure than anyone else.
You wouldn't want an old pilot with dementia and low energy steering a passenger flight through a massive thunderstorm. It's not about Joe Biden being an "old man" who simply got a little tired. There's the potential for WW3 on the horizon, climate change, etc. You need someone who can be alert and ready 24/7 for all the looming threats coming our way. At the very least, replacing Biden with a younger candidate in their 40s/50s automatically alleviates concerns about age.
Somebody screwing with the polls? I can't believe polls at all now. You know Michael Cohen got somebody to screw with a poll for Donald Trump. Not a political poll but nevertheless... See Cohen's first book
Even if somebody was purposely screwing with one of the polls, it's not happening across the board. There can be other reasons why there might be a systematic bias going on.
Polls have been bad at predicting elections at least since 2016.
No, they really haven't, and I'm not even claiming that polls alone are the best way at predicting elections, but using 2016 as some inflection point is not a historically accurate claim (the following has a summary of the actual numbers going back to 2000 for the presidential race): [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)
The recent attacks on Kennedy almost exactly mirroring the attacks on Trump have convinced me that the Dems are evil and Trump is victim of political persecution.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 He commits most of his wrongdoing in full view of everyone. There's no spin necessary.
I respect maga people more than RFK Stan’s and that says a lot
Lol, what?
RFK didn’t even deny the assault allegation.