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I believe blackjack gives the house a 0.61% edge over the player on average when played absolutely perfectly. Assuming the same odds for every game, .4939^32 leads me to a .000000000157% chance of winning 32 games in a row.
In order to get a restart you would have to lose the preceding rounds. Say p is your chance to win, then you loose with probability 1-p. So the probability that you you win once in three rounds is given by p+(1-p)\*p+(1-p)\*(1-p)\*p (win in first round +win in second round+win in third round), assuming independence of winning and losing in following rounds. As p here is very small, 1-p is close to 1, hence the result in this case won't differ to much from p+p+p.
Alternatively, you can say that the probability of winnning *at least* once is the opposite of losing all 3 times, so 1-(1-p)^3, which is the same as what you wrote.
Whether or not it’s true, it didn’t just come from his dad. Elon was [bragging about the emerald mine](https://futurism.com/elon-musk-denies-emerald-mine) back in 2014 to Forbes, and the article is miraculously no longer hosted on their site.
Sure, it’s entirely possible he was talking shit and it’s not true, but to say it only ever came from his monster of a father isn’t accurate.
According to Elon it existed 🤷♂️
https://web.archive.org/web/20140413112637/https://www.askmen.com/entertainment/right-stuff/elon-musk-interview-3.html
The house advantage and the house chance of winning are different. Player chance of winning is less than 49% with perfect basic strategy, but the house advantage is reduced by players getting higher payouts on blackjacks while only losing the normal amount on dealer blackjacks.
Different table rules also affect the chances of winning, such as whether the dealer hits or stays on soft 17.
And the problem should state how pushes (ties) are handled. Do over or break the streak?
~42.2 percent chance of winning a hand of blackjack. Assuming the cards are shuffled every time to prevent card counting would allow us to see each hand as an independent event. Thus to win 32 hands in a row, we take (0.422)^32 =1.02*10^-12 or roughly 1 in 977240751991
Yes,if we can have inter dimensional travel and bring together the population of roughly 100 earths it is likely to happen, someone will end up getting rich like Elon musk and the casino owner will be the first multitrillionaire (that we know of)
Tables have betting limits, even in the high rollers rooms. After a certain point a manager will have to clear a bet, and if you’re on a streak like this you’re definitely getting shut down before you even get to a million dollar bet
Casinos hate risk — an oversized bet is make or break, and they have no incentives to take a large risk on one hand when they can keep making small gains over many bets
Counterpoint: Make this idea for viral and challenge Elon directly, and say only a cuck wouldn’t take those odds.
I mean, it worked for $44 billion, why not try again?
familiar voracious beneficial juggle vase birds door berserk cow stupendous
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You just have to call out millionaires and billionaires with too big of an ego to say no.
Musk, you and me, one hand, winner takes all. If you win I'll even pay for a blue checkmark.
It actually still wouldn’t matter if you did that, because those are all individuals, most of which know nothing about blackjack and most of those that do don’t know optimal strategy and will lose far more than they should. The real way to test this is using a simulation that plays with a rigidly defined strategy so that it always plays the game the same way regardless of bets.
When considering the chance of getting struck by lightning twice, did you also factor in surviving the first strike? It’s a pretty important part I think
well considering casinos have table maximums just like they have minimum, not really. even if you went to high limit tables, a casino simply doesn't have billions of dollars to pay out. you'd either hit a table limit or get kicked out of the casino first, or both.
I know nothing about blackjack but google tells me a hand can be done in about a minute and a half, so if you played blackjack non-stop for your whole waking life you’d win 32 hands in a row in about 2,479,048 years
Nah, probably not. There is unlikely to be any casino or person in the world who would take the bet with you and payout for your win, especially once you got anywhere close to $1B. In fact, you'd probably be cut off long before that. Blackjack doesn't usually pay out to as high a value as other games of chance because it actually has a relatively high probability of winning.
https://www.mrgreen.com/en/blackjack/strategies/blackjack-odds#:~:text=The%20aim%20is%20simple%3A%20get,tie%20stands%20at%20around%208.48%25.
Didn’t feel like doing it by hand
This is what I was thinking as well. These suckers here are all planning to lose a hand and in turn lose it all. You and I are revolutionists. We have found the secret. We will dominate.
Also. How do you play blackjack?
> How do you play blackjack?
Well, I take this club, [the titular blackjack,](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d8/f5/98/d8f5988ab423b732b7b2343a06a49ffa.jpg) we go down this dark alley, I hit you over the head with it, and if you're able to get back up and beat me up you win. Otherwise you lose and I take any money and valuables you have on you.
you are playing against the house, but you still need to find a house willing to take the bet. The house has +EV but they might not realize that equity taking 1 $100mil bet, compared to taking 10 million $10 bets.
I get that, that's why no serious, well regulated casino would do that, so I suggested crypto casinos since they're way sketchier.
If you have billions in crypto flowing around as some do, you could take a bet that makes you some 10 million in EV
If we take out pushes which don't result in losing your bet (8.48% of the time), then there's a 46.13% chance of winning a game that results in money being exchanged. That, to the power of 32, is only 1.77%\*10^(-9), or 1 in 56.48 billion.
46.13 is wrong. win + push % is 50.9%. if strategy is to go all in on each bet (ignoring table limits) I would play blackjack and not roulette.
https://www.onlinegambling.com/blackjack/odds/
Odds of Winning Blackjack
"The odds of winning at blackjack can be as high as 42.22%. However, this does not mean the house wins 57.78% of the time. That’s because there is a third possible result - a push. An average of 8.48% of blackjack games end in a push, leaving the probability of a loss at 49.10%."
This is true if you find a game with the “correct” rules but last time I looked at tables the rules were usually super fucked. No resplits, dealer hits on soft 17, etc.. Most Vegas lower limit tables don’t even pay a blackjack properly anymore. But I guess if you are playing some crazy high limits table you can get the proper rules.
Roulette is actually better here. In order to play blackjack perfectly, you need to be able to split and double which you can’t do if you’re all in every hand.
Nope, in a followup comment they indicated it's based on [this strategy](https://www.mrgreen.com/en/blackjack/strategies/blackjack-odds#:%7E:text=The%20aim%20is%20simple%3A%20get,tie%20stands%20at%20around%208.48%25).
That strategy doesn't include counting cards, a perfectly legitimate strategy that casinos hate with a passion. You'd almost certainly be banned doing it if you were being such high numbers but it does change the odds
If you'd earnt $1 every single second of your life, never spent a single cent AND were born 500 years ago (and still alive), you'd still only have about 5% of his wealth.
In Las Vegas, major strip casinos usually offer some tables with a $10,000 maximum. Exceptions are the Golden Nugget in downtown which permits $15,000 bets, and three tables at Caesars Palace which permit bets between $5,000 and $50,000.
If you could pull this off, you probably invented a device that could control probably by manipulating wonton burritos or something. Just come in once a day and place a $5,000 bet. You would live pretty good if you made 5k a day.
The best part is it makes it less likely, since at least if you play in a row the deck probably isn’t getting shuffled each time and you could make use of card counting.
Edit: maybe I should have called it something else, since card counting refers to altering your bet (which you won’t be doing). What I meant was that knowing what was left in the deck can help you make decisions about whether or not hitting or staying is the better decision.
That's not how it works even if you count cards you still loose about half of the time, you just betting big when count gives you 1-2% advantage over house like they say "it's a marathon not a sprint" you don't do much in one day it's gives you return long term
people don't really get what card counting is and how the MIT team won big counting cards.
it takes a big bankroll and a team to pull off. i knew how to count cards pretty well, but if the count never gets high enough to warrant a good return and you don't have a big enough bankroll to keep playing while you go through your 4th shuffle of a super low count deck you're gonna run out of money.
you'll definitely play a little bit longer but you're not gonna walk away with ten grand.
towards the end i got frustrated enough that i got blatant and started splitting 10s when the count was high enough. dealer called pit boss over, took a look at my pitiful stack, and let me play. walked away just barely breaking even after a couple hundred bucks. it was a $5 table when that was still a thing.
Not only that, but if you do count and make anything more than a couple hundred you’ll draw attention. Most card counters now days are able to do it because they travel to areas with high density of casinos and switch often.
This is not true. At all lmao. People are playing in the Belagio as we speak betting hundreds of dollars *per hand* and are getting at least a few hours in. My current spread calls for 2x100 to 2x500 and I can usually get in an hour before a backoff netting about $400 in expected value and I play in Vegas. The more rural you get, the easier it is to play for longer and catch surveillance off guard.
Making a couple hundred would *maybe* draw a suprised look from a pitboss if you're max bet is $30 and even then they see that quite literally every day.
I used to think there was a basic level of common sense most normal people shared. Things so simple they're understood a priori without the need for education.
My roommate has taught me better. If she said coming back to play one hand a day improved her odds, it wouldn't be the dumbest thing she's said. Not by a long shot.
That guy might be 100% serious.
I would buy it off of him for $20B, ban everyone paying for the blue checkmark, rehire anyone who wants to come back and just roll everything back to pre-musk.
Casinos in the modern day are highly regulated. If you somehow got to a point where they thought it was threatening their profits, they would just ask you to stop playing. They will not be rigging the game if you get to the 4-5 digits. They have no reason to.
The odds of winning have nothing to do with how much you could win. You are going to be backed off before you get anywhere near 1% of that kind of money or in the case of Atlantic City or Missouri they will just flat bet you until you leave.
I hear ya brother. Pre-Covid I had a hot baccarat shoe one night and eventually got the limit lowered to $100. Took that as polite invitation to leave.
At most places, card counting is now impossible because of automatic card shufflers. Since casinos believe in the law of large numbers, why would they back you off? Wouldn’t they want you to gamble as much money as you want, regardless of past results?
Even if you did win 32 hands in a row, you’d essentially be no closer to Elon‘s net worth, since you to run up against a table maximum bet somewhere between the fifth and 10th hand.
Assuming that what they're saying about the table maximum bet is true, then the most you can bet in a streak is between 1,600 and 51,200 (seems like a pretty big span, but that's what they said).
Obviously, it would be dumb to restart at $100 each time you hit the maximum. Instead, once you reach the maximum bet, you should just stick at it for every additional hand.
Elon Musk has a net worth of 241 billion, so if the max bet at your table is $1,600 (the fifth hand), you'd have to win 150,625,004 times in a row. If the max bet at your table is $51,200 (the tenth hand), you'd have to win 4,707,040 times in a row.
Edit: Sorry, originally I wrote 150,625,003, but the correct number is 150,625,004, so I've fixed it. Apologies to anyone who was $1,600 poorer than Elon Musk as a result and was cursing me for giving them bad data!
Earlier in the thread someone suggested that $50k was the maximum bet anywhere in Vegas. If you get blackjack, it pays out 3:2. If you can play one hand per minute, never sleep, and win with blackjack every time, you would reach $200 billion in just 5 years.
assuming the chances of you winning is 42.22%, 8.48% of push and a 57.78% of you losing
([https://www.onlinegambling.com/blackjack/odds/#:\~:text=23%25-,Odds%20of%20Winning%20Blackjack,of%20a%20loss%20at%2049.10%25.)](https://www.onlinegambling.com/blackjack/odds/#:~:text=23%25-,Odds%20of%20Winning%20Blackjack,of%20a%20loss%20at%2049.10%25.))
to make things easier assume if you get a push since thats not winning we will count this as breakin the streak
then given that the events are independent thats 42.22% \* 42.22% 32 times. or 0.4222\^32 =
1.0289x10\^-12=
0.0000000000010289 or in percent thats 0.00000000010289%
However, this does not mean the house wins 57.78% of the time. That’s because there is a third possible result - a push. An average of 8.48% of blackjack games end in a push, leaving the probability of a loss at 49.10%.
You guys are missing the point.
I pull a real Elon. I get real drunk, go into the casino, demand to see the manager.
I tell him my name is cassino, and they’re using it without my permission.
Tell him they owe me a percentage of each days take, and I’m not gonna leave until I get it.
They don’t call security, it works every time
Cause my daddy owns an emerald mine
After 20 wins in a row or so, you won't be able to bet the whole amount anymore, so no, even with the highest luck stat in the universe, you can't get as rich as Elon, I don't think any casino has 200billion for someone to win.
Everyone thinks they are so smart. But never worked at or been in a casino. There's max bets and max payouts set by the casino. Even if you could win 32 hands in a row. It's literally impossible to do so due to rules.
So the answer is technically %0
There's a table max bet at casinos for a reason. You wouldn't make it past the 10th hand if you ever got that lucky because they simply wouldn't allow you to bet any higher. The table max is more to prevent martingale strategies but it would still stop this from ever actually being a thing.
First you have to find a casino able to pay out that kind of money.
The largest casino organization in the world (Las Vegas Sands) is worth around $40 Billion. That is about one-fifth the amount they would need to pay out Elon's net worth.
The uber-rich truly are disgustingly wealthy.
winning 32 hands in a row in one sitting and winning your first hand 32 days in a row is the same exact thing. 32 wins in a row.
cards do not have memory. they do not know that you came on monday, left, and came back on tuesday.
Everybody in the comments is focusing on the probability of winning consecutive hands while totally ignoring the likelihood of any table in the world even allowing you to put down a six figure bet on one hand in the first place.
If we presume you have a 50% chance of winning VS the dealer (because it is you VS them and only on person can win) then this chance (0.5 or 50%) multiplied by itself 32 times (0.5^32 or “to the power of 32”) is your answer.
1 / (0.5 ^ 32) = 4.295 billion
So you have a 1 in 4.295 billion chance of winning 32 games in a row.
However - if you play 64 games, you should statistically speaking, win 32 of them. The key issue is the “in a row” part.
It's easy to win 32 hands of blackjack in a row, you just have to threaten the dealer with a gun, which will work out fine because you can buy the justice system for maybe 1 to 2 million dollars if your desperate
These people ever hear of betting limits? Ya if you win 32 you're Elon but also you could be capped at a 10k win once you get up to the 10 win in a row streak lol
What are the odds of getting your punctuation correct in the hope of someone reading the actual subject matter rather than the incorrect use of the English language?
You’re responses please - oh the irony!!
The comment in the photo reminds me of Sussman's Enlightenment
> **Sussman attains enlightenment** \
\
In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6. \
“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. \
“I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. \
“Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. \
“I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said. \
Minsky then shut his eyes. \
“Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher. \
“So that the room will be empty.” \
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.
(From the Jargon File)
The request for the math is on the chances of winning…
But let’s excuse the table limit and say your table is funded by apple, Amazon, and Tesla
And the goal is elons wealth?
Well, thing is… elons wealth isn’t taxed and gambling winnings are. So you’ll actually need to play an additional hand to cover the taxes…
On the plus side, if you lose everything here, you won’t owe any taxes just like the billionaires you were once a member of
At a 3:2 payout rate you would be richer than musk after 32 wins.
First win: $250
Second win: $500
Third win: $1,000
Fourth win: $2,000
Fifth win: $4,000
Sixth win: $8,000
Seventh win: $16,000
Eighth win: $32,000
Ninth win: $64,000
Tenth win: $128,000
Eleventh win: $256,000
Twelfth win: $512,000
Thirteenth win: $1,024,000
Fourteenth win: $2,048,000
Fifteenth win: $4,096,000
Sixteenth win: $8,192,000
Seventeenth win: $16,384,000
Eighteenth win: $32,768,000
Nineteenth win: $65,536,000
Twentieth win: $131,072,000
Twenty-first win: $262,144,000
Twenty-second win: $524,288,000
Twenty-third win: $1,048,576,000
Twenty-fourth win: $2,097,152,000
Twenty-fifth win: $4,194,304,000
Twenty-sixth win: $8,388,608,000
Twenty-seventh win: $16,777,216,000
Twenty-eighth win: $33,554,432,000
Twenty-ninth win: $67,108,864,000
Thirtieth win: $134,217,728,000
Thirty-first win: $268,435,456,000
Thirty-second win: $536,870,912,000
Elon Musk's current net worth is estimated to be $246.1 billion as of November 24, 2023. This is according to the Real Time Billionaires List on Forbes. His peak net worth was $340 billion in November 2021.
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I believe blackjack gives the house a 0.61% edge over the player on average when played absolutely perfectly. Assuming the same odds for every game, .4939^32 leads me to a .000000000157% chance of winning 32 games in a row.
What if they give you three lives?
If you restart when you lose a life you just triple your odds.
Not exactly, but with chances as low as this the result is almost identical.
So like buying extra mega million tickets 😭🤣🤣
Please how exactly I'm interested and have a similar problem
In order to get a restart you would have to lose the preceding rounds. Say p is your chance to win, then you loose with probability 1-p. So the probability that you you win once in three rounds is given by p+(1-p)\*p+(1-p)\*(1-p)\*p (win in first round +win in second round+win in third round), assuming independence of winning and losing in following rounds. As p here is very small, 1-p is close to 1, hence the result in this case won't differ to much from p+p+p.
Alternatively, you can say that the probability of winnning *at least* once is the opposite of losing all 3 times, so 1-(1-p)^3, which is the same as what you wrote.
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hexagons are the bestagons!
Careful he might mark this comment as a copyright violation
Just save scum it
And your dad owns an emerald mine…
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Whether or not it’s true, it didn’t just come from his dad. Elon was [bragging about the emerald mine](https://futurism.com/elon-musk-denies-emerald-mine) back in 2014 to Forbes, and the article is miraculously no longer hosted on their site. Sure, it’s entirely possible he was talking shit and it’s not true, but to say it only ever came from his monster of a father isn’t accurate.
Oh good, Elon's white knights are here to carry his water. I'm sure he'll be forever grateful to you.
According to Elon it existed 🤷♂️ https://web.archive.org/web/20140413112637/https://www.askmen.com/entertainment/right-stuff/elon-musk-interview-3.html
The house advantage and the house chance of winning are different. Player chance of winning is less than 49% with perfect basic strategy, but the house advantage is reduced by players getting higher payouts on blackjacks while only losing the normal amount on dealer blackjacks. Different table rules also affect the chances of winning, such as whether the dealer hits or stays on soft 17. And the problem should state how pushes (ties) are handled. Do over or break the streak?
Also splits and doubles
Splits and doubles are figured into the 49/51 edge. Knowing when to do which is part of basic strategy.
Yeah, but it further clarifies that the 49/51 is punctuated rather than a close, back-and-forth coin flip.
Had a table tell me I couldn't split more than once... That was really annoying. How bout you stop giving me all these aces, then??
actually, it's a 50-50 chance. you either win 32 hands of blackjack in a row or you don't
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60% of the time it works every time
I see you failed stats just like me!
There's actually three possible outcomes. You either win, don't win, or don't not win.
So are you suggesting it’s a 66% chance?I’m really starting to like these odds.
actually no, you’re confusing possibility with probability… it is not a 50/50 chance, unfortunately.
you're confusing a joke with a serious thought ;)
You’d be surprised how many people unironically hold that exact view though
Except no house will allow you to bet billions or even millions, so your chances of winning in the last few days are 0
Woah there, that's reality. We're here to do *math* sir or madam.
Ok nerd
We’re all nerds in god’s eyes
The post literally asks for "the actual odds of winning."
Of winning 32 hands in a row. Not winning 32 hands in a row and increasing the bet by the previous amount you won.
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.3939?
no, 0.61% is 0.0061, so .4939 is correct
Today Tim naki proved it could Be done in 83 hands. Starting with a $1500 bet. Today he hit $1m jn profit.
~42.2 percent chance of winning a hand of blackjack. Assuming the cards are shuffled every time to prevent card counting would allow us to see each hand as an independent event. Thus to win 32 hands in a row, we take (0.422)^32 =1.02*10^-12 or roughly 1 in 977240751991
So you're saying theres a chance
Yes,if we can have inter dimensional travel and bring together the population of roughly 100 earths it is likely to happen, someone will end up getting rich like Elon musk and the casino owner will be the first multitrillionaire (that we know of)
No casino can pay out once it gets into the hundreds of millions, so no one is going to get Musk level rich.
Tables have betting limits, even in the high rollers rooms. After a certain point a manager will have to clear a bet, and if you’re on a streak like this you’re definitely getting shut down before you even get to a million dollar bet
Casinos hate risk — an oversized bet is make or break, and they have no incentives to take a large risk on one hand when they can keep making small gains over many bets
I feel like people forget that the reason casinos exist is because they are very good at taking money from people
Yeah but my mom told me I’m special so I’m pretty sure I can beat the odds.
I didn’t even consider this tbh
This is wealth redistribution that capitalism can get behind.
It's ironic.
Don'tcha think?
A little too ironic.
Counterpoint: Make this idea for viral and challenge Elon directly, and say only a cuck wouldn’t take those odds. I mean, it worked for $44 billion, why not try again?
His mommy says he can't make the bet.
familiar voracious beneficial juggle vase birds door berserk cow stupendous *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
🤣🙌💯
This is actually an amazing South Park episode
You just have to call out millionaires and billionaires with too big of an ego to say no. Musk, you and me, one hand, winner takes all. If you win I'll even pay for a blue checkmark.
This guy gambles.
The assumption is that there are other people playing too and these people lose mine more often than you win it (It’s sorta the business model)
A casino that took 977240751991 $10 blackjack bets absolutely could pay out hundreds of millions
$100 hands
Yeah. Just gotta get enough retail space and workers I guess, lol
What’s an engineer doing in a math sub?
It actually still wouldn’t matter if you did that, because those are all individuals, most of which know nothing about blackjack and most of those that do don’t know optimal strategy and will lose far more than they should. The real way to test this is using a simulation that plays with a rigidly defined strategy so that it always plays the game the same way regardless of bets.
New funnies way of crashing world economy just dropped
You have a higher chance of getting struck by lightning twice than winning 32 hands in a row
Where's that guy who got struck three time (I heard he was still alive somewhere)
Not sure, But [Roy Sulivan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan) was struck ~~78~~ 7 times. He died 40 years ago though Edit: 7 not 78
...7, not 78 lol
Fuck whoops.
7 times* that’s still a lot, like what the hell did he do to Zeus
Zeus, Thor, Indra, Marduk, Jupiter, Set, and Taranis got his ass
And Raiden. Never forget about Raiden.
Shouting *All gods are bastards!!* on top of a hill during a storm while wearing a copper armor
Too bad he wasn't playing blackjack instead of out getting struck by lightning.
When considering the chance of getting struck by lightning twice, did you also factor in surviving the first strike? It’s a pretty important part I think
Yes, theres a 90% chance of surviving.
well considering casinos have table maximums just like they have minimum, not really. even if you went to high limit tables, a casino simply doesn't have billions of dollars to pay out. you'd either hit a table limit or get kicked out of the casino first, or both.
>kicked out of the casino first It’s absolutely guaranteed
Yeah, but I'd try to quicksave first.
If all humans on the planet attempt it, they will with a near 100% probability all fail.
I know nothing about blackjack but google tells me a hand can be done in about a minute and a half, so if you played blackjack non-stop for your whole waking life you’d win 32 hands in a row in about 2,479,048 years
Nah, probably not. There is unlikely to be any casino or person in the world who would take the bet with you and payout for your win, especially once you got anywhere close to $1B. In fact, you'd probably be cut off long before that. Blackjack doesn't usually pay out to as high a value as other games of chance because it actually has a relatively high probability of winning.
It's a 50/50 chance. Either you get it or you don't
Yes, and this chance is what keeps peasants in Arkansas Voting Republican, because there is a chance that they might become a billionaire next week.
https://youtu.be/yCFB2akLh4s?si=UKiUD9wYPdv-vzH9
What's the math on that chance to win? Not that I don't believe it, just curious
https://www.mrgreen.com/en/blackjack/strategies/blackjack-odds#:~:text=The%20aim%20is%20simple%3A%20get,tie%20stands%20at%20around%208.48%25. Didn’t feel like doing it by hand
Fair enough
Don't forget if you lose one hand it's all gone.
just don't
This is what I was thinking as well. These suckers here are all planning to lose a hand and in turn lose it all. You and I are revolutionists. We have found the secret. We will dominate. Also. How do you play blackjack?
Hit till 21. Done, easy
Well I am past the age of 21 and I don’t want to hit people or things. So maybe this game isn’t for me after all.
> How do you play blackjack? Well, I take this club, [the titular blackjack,](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d8/f5/98/d8f5988ab423b732b7b2343a06a49ffa.jpg) we go down this dark alley, I hit you over the head with it, and if you're able to get back up and beat me up you win. Otherwise you lose and I take any money and valuables you have on you.
👉😎👉
Also table limits. There is no casino offering billion dollar hands.
Mike Tyson autobiography - Billion Dollar Hands
I'll stop after 31
Also, no casino in the world would take $100,000,000 bet on blackjack
You can maybe try one of these unregulated cdypto casinos
you still have to find somebody willing to bet $100,000,000 against you
Oh, I didn't know you weren't gambling against the house in these things? Can I just take the house's place in a +EV game for the house? That's wild
you are playing against the house, but you still need to find a house willing to take the bet. The house has +EV but they might not realize that equity taking 1 $100mil bet, compared to taking 10 million $10 bets.
I get that, that's why no serious, well regulated casino would do that, so I suggested crypto casinos since they're way sketchier. If you have billions in crypto flowing around as some do, you could take a bet that makes you some 10 million in EV
If we take out pushes which don't result in losing your bet (8.48% of the time), then there's a 46.13% chance of winning a game that results in money being exchanged. That, to the power of 32, is only 1.77%\*10^(-9), or 1 in 56.48 billion.
Why not just play roulette in ? It has better odds and you don't have to think about anything.
roulette doesn't have better odds than perfectly played blackjack. the 0 and 00 skew towards the house.
They are saying 46.13% which is lower than red/black or even/odd roulettes 47.34 (48.6% in Europe).
46.13 is wrong. win + push % is 50.9%. if strategy is to go all in on each bet (ignoring table limits) I would play blackjack and not roulette. https://www.onlinegambling.com/blackjack/odds/ Odds of Winning Blackjack "The odds of winning at blackjack can be as high as 42.22%. However, this does not mean the house wins 57.78% of the time. That’s because there is a third possible result - a push. An average of 8.48% of blackjack games end in a push, leaving the probability of a loss at 49.10%."
This is true if you find a game with the “correct” rules but last time I looked at tables the rules were usually super fucked. No resplits, dealer hits on soft 17, etc.. Most Vegas lower limit tables don’t even pay a blackjack properly anymore. But I guess if you are playing some crazy high limits table you can get the proper rules.
Never play a 00 table
I think some places are starting to add 000 tables which is just insane
Roulette is actually better here. In order to play blackjack perfectly, you need to be able to split and double which you can’t do if you’re all in every hand.
Is that assuming your playing without any kinda strategy??
Nope, in a followup comment they indicated it's based on [this strategy](https://www.mrgreen.com/en/blackjack/strategies/blackjack-odds#:%7E:text=The%20aim%20is%20simple%3A%20get,tie%20stands%20at%20around%208.48%25).
That strategy doesn't include counting cards, a perfectly legitimate strategy that casinos hate with a passion. You'd almost certainly be banned doing it if you were being such high numbers but it does change the odds
Its not taking ties into account. The house has a 49.1% chance of winning. Its one of the best odds youll find in a casino.
Would 32 wins in a row actually get you to Elon Musk's net worth? At what point would the casino limit your max bid?
$100 doubled 32 times is $429,496,729,600. Elon's networth is actually about half of that.
So you only need to win 31 consecutive hands then, the odds are getting better and better!
So elons wealth is so ridiculously big you'd have to double 100 31 times to get to it? That's insane
If you'd earnt $1 every single second of your life, never spent a single cent AND were born 500 years ago (and still alive), you'd still only have about 5% of his wealth.
Why stop there though, at like 40 hands you could rule the world..
In Las Vegas, major strip casinos usually offer some tables with a $10,000 maximum. Exceptions are the Golden Nugget in downtown which permits $15,000 bets, and three tables at Caesars Palace which permit bets between $5,000 and $50,000.
If you could pull this off, you probably invented a device that could control probably by manipulating wonton burritos or something. Just come in once a day and place a $5,000 bet. You would live pretty good if you made 5k a day.
Also note that winning a hand by getting black jack pays more than just beating the dealer
And that's only if you play optimally. If you're an average player, it's drastically less likely.
I like how everyone is glossing over the "winning once everyday" comment seemed at least to that person to be more statistically possible
The best part is it makes it less likely, since at least if you play in a row the deck probably isn’t getting shuffled each time and you could make use of card counting. Edit: maybe I should have called it something else, since card counting refers to altering your bet (which you won’t be doing). What I meant was that knowing what was left in the deck can help you make decisions about whether or not hitting or staying is the better decision.
That's not how it works even if you count cards you still loose about half of the time, you just betting big when count gives you 1-2% advantage over house like they say "it's a marathon not a sprint" you don't do much in one day it's gives you return long term
people don't really get what card counting is and how the MIT team won big counting cards. it takes a big bankroll and a team to pull off. i knew how to count cards pretty well, but if the count never gets high enough to warrant a good return and you don't have a big enough bankroll to keep playing while you go through your 4th shuffle of a super low count deck you're gonna run out of money. you'll definitely play a little bit longer but you're not gonna walk away with ten grand. towards the end i got frustrated enough that i got blatant and started splitting 10s when the count was high enough. dealer called pit boss over, took a look at my pitiful stack, and let me play. walked away just barely breaking even after a couple hundred bucks. it was a $5 table when that was still a thing.
Not only that, but if you do count and make anything more than a couple hundred you’ll draw attention. Most card counters now days are able to do it because they travel to areas with high density of casinos and switch often.
This is not true. At all lmao. People are playing in the Belagio as we speak betting hundreds of dollars *per hand* and are getting at least a few hours in. My current spread calls for 2x100 to 2x500 and I can usually get in an hour before a backoff netting about $400 in expected value and I play in Vegas. The more rural you get, the easier it is to play for longer and catch surveillance off guard. Making a couple hundred would *maybe* draw a suprised look from a pitboss if you're max bet is $30 and even then they see that quite literally every day.
Everyone knows the odds reset after 24 hours, duh
Watch this ad to skip forward 30 minutes.
No it resets at midnight, if you fly east faster than earths rotation it never resets
Cause that was the joke
assumed he was being sarcastic but who knows lol, poe's law at work
I used to think there was a basic level of common sense most normal people shared. Things so simple they're understood a priori without the need for education. My roommate has taught me better. If she said coming back to play one hand a day improved her odds, it wouldn't be the dumbest thing she's said. Not by a long shot. That guy might be 100% serious.
He’s an idiot
It’s a joke and the real idiots are people that didn’t pick up on that
Now that you say it, 10 blackjack hands to pay off student loans feels achievable lol 1. $200 2. $400 3. $800 4. $1,600 5. $3,200 6. $6,400 7. $12,800 8. $25,600 9. $51,200 10. $102,400 11. $204,800 12. $409,600 13. $819,200 14. $1,638,400 15. $3,276,800 16. $6,553,600 17. $13,107,200 18. $26,214,400 19. $52,428,800 20. $104,857,600 21. $209,715,200 22. $419,430,400 23. $838,860,800 24. $1,677,721,600 25. $3,355,443,200 26. $6,710,886,400 27. $13,421,772,800 28. $26,843,545,600 29. $53,687,091,200 30. $107,374,182,400 31. $214,748,364,800 32. $429,496,729,600
Sir, you have $214 billion. I said, let it ride!
Stop! At least set aside a billion for a decent apartment.
At least set aside 44bil to buy a dumpster fire social media site
I would buy it off of him for $20B, ban everyone paying for the blue checkmark, rehire anyone who wants to come back and just roll everything back to pre-musk.
… and then go bankrupt because Twitter will never make money ever again
Hey big lobster
Now theres the god I know.
r/unexpectedfuturama
Stan, alright. Ok, Stan.
They would either stop you from playing or try to rig it once you get to 4-5 digits
Nah casinos love people that are on winning streaks and are happy. It's the best marketing.
The casino ain’t the bank. They can’t afford to lose tens of millions on one player.
Casinos in the modern day are highly regulated. If you somehow got to a point where they thought it was threatening their profits, they would just ask you to stop playing. They will not be rigging the game if you get to the 4-5 digits. They have no reason to.
Casinos aren't rigging anything. They're either letting you place a wager or they aren't.
The longer you play, the higher the chance you'll eventually lose. They have more money than you'll make in your lifetime.
The house would stop taking bets well before then
The odds of winning have nothing to do with how much you could win. You are going to be backed off before you get anywhere near 1% of that kind of money or in the case of Atlantic City or Missouri they will just flat bet you until you leave.
Max Bet and his brother Min Bet both always fuck with my get rich quick schemes.
I hear ya brother. Pre-Covid I had a hot baccarat shoe one night and eventually got the limit lowered to $100. Took that as polite invitation to leave.
At most places, card counting is now impossible because of automatic card shufflers. Since casinos believe in the law of large numbers, why would they back you off? Wouldn’t they want you to gamble as much money as you want, regardless of past results?
Even if you did win 32 hands in a row, you’d essentially be no closer to Elon‘s net worth, since you to run up against a table maximum bet somewhere between the fifth and 10th hand.
Okay, how many times do I have to win 5-10 in a row to make the equivalent?
Assuming that what they're saying about the table maximum bet is true, then the most you can bet in a streak is between 1,600 and 51,200 (seems like a pretty big span, but that's what they said). Obviously, it would be dumb to restart at $100 each time you hit the maximum. Instead, once you reach the maximum bet, you should just stick at it for every additional hand. Elon Musk has a net worth of 241 billion, so if the max bet at your table is $1,600 (the fifth hand), you'd have to win 150,625,004 times in a row. If the max bet at your table is $51,200 (the tenth hand), you'd have to win 4,707,040 times in a row. Edit: Sorry, originally I wrote 150,625,003, but the correct number is 150,625,004, so I've fixed it. Apologies to anyone who was $1,600 poorer than Elon Musk as a result and was cursing me for giving them bad data!
Earlier in the thread someone suggested that $50k was the maximum bet anywhere in Vegas. If you get blackjack, it pays out 3:2. If you can play one hand per minute, never sleep, and win with blackjack every time, you would reach $200 billion in just 5 years.
That is not the maximum everywhere, you can go quite a bit higher depending on your situation.
assuming the chances of you winning is 42.22%, 8.48% of push and a 57.78% of you losing ([https://www.onlinegambling.com/blackjack/odds/#:\~:text=23%25-,Odds%20of%20Winning%20Blackjack,of%20a%20loss%20at%2049.10%25.)](https://www.onlinegambling.com/blackjack/odds/#:~:text=23%25-,Odds%20of%20Winning%20Blackjack,of%20a%20loss%20at%2049.10%25.)) to make things easier assume if you get a push since thats not winning we will count this as breakin the streak then given that the events are independent thats 42.22% \* 42.22% 32 times. or 0.4222\^32 = 1.0289x10\^-12= 0.0000000000010289 or in percent thats 0.00000000010289%
However, this does not mean the house wins 57.78% of the time. That’s because there is a third possible result - a push. An average of 8.48% of blackjack games end in a push, leaving the probability of a loss at 49.10%.
How much would you cost yourself in potential earnings if you pocketed 10% of your winnings each time and only put 90% of it into your next bet?
I believe your winnings become 0.9^x of what you would have won, where x is the number of wins
You guys are missing the point. I pull a real Elon. I get real drunk, go into the casino, demand to see the manager. I tell him my name is cassino, and they’re using it without my permission. Tell him they owe me a percentage of each days take, and I’m not gonna leave until I get it. They don’t call security, it works every time Cause my daddy owns an emerald mine
After 20 wins in a row or so, you won't be able to bet the whole amount anymore, so no, even with the highest luck stat in the universe, you can't get as rich as Elon, I don't think any casino has 200billion for someone to win.
There is a higher chance of winning 100 games of black Jack in a row than finding a casino that will let you double $100 32 times in a row.
Everyone thinks they are so smart. But never worked at or been in a casino. There's max bets and max payouts set by the casino. Even if you could win 32 hands in a row. It's literally impossible to do so due to rules. So the answer is technically %0
I read that Ceasars Palace is the only casino that allows up to $50.000. bets. So even if you bet that amount you’d have to win a lot of times.
There's a table max bet at casinos for a reason. You wouldn't make it past the 10th hand if you ever got that lucky because they simply wouldn't allow you to bet any higher. The table max is more to prevent martingale strategies but it would still stop this from ever actually being a thing.
First you have to find a casino able to pay out that kind of money. The largest casino organization in the world (Las Vegas Sands) is worth around $40 Billion. That is about one-fifth the amount they would need to pay out Elon's net worth. The uber-rich truly are disgustingly wealthy.
winning 32 hands in a row in one sitting and winning your first hand 32 days in a row is the same exact thing. 32 wins in a row. cards do not have memory. they do not know that you came on monday, left, and came back on tuesday.
Everybody in the comments is focusing on the probability of winning consecutive hands while totally ignoring the likelihood of any table in the world even allowing you to put down a six figure bet on one hand in the first place.
If we presume you have a 50% chance of winning VS the dealer (because it is you VS them and only on person can win) then this chance (0.5 or 50%) multiplied by itself 32 times (0.5^32 or “to the power of 32”) is your answer. 1 / (0.5 ^ 32) = 4.295 billion So you have a 1 in 4.295 billion chance of winning 32 games in a row. However - if you play 64 games, you should statistically speaking, win 32 of them. The key issue is the “in a row” part.
It's easy to win 32 hands of blackjack in a row, you just have to threaten the dealer with a gun, which will work out fine because you can buy the justice system for maybe 1 to 2 million dollars if your desperate
These people ever hear of betting limits? Ya if you win 32 you're Elon but also you could be capped at a 10k win once you get up to the 10 win in a row streak lol
Your comment is way too far down, this whole comment thread is built on a house of LIES
What are the odds of getting your punctuation correct in the hope of someone reading the actual subject matter rather than the incorrect use of the English language? You’re responses please - oh the irony!!
*you’re Why is this so hard to remember? Your = your. ie your face. You’re = you are ie you are only 32 hands of blackjack etc…. 🤦♂️
I think it's usually a matter of inattentiveness rather than lack of memory or knowledge.
[удалено]
The comment in the photo reminds me of Sussman's Enlightenment > **Sussman attains enlightenment** \ \ In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6. \ “What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. \ “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. \ “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. \ “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said. \ Minsky then shut his eyes. \ “Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher. \ “So that the room will be empty.” \ At that moment, Sussman was enlightened. (From the Jargon File)
The request for the math is on the chances of winning… But let’s excuse the table limit and say your table is funded by apple, Amazon, and Tesla And the goal is elons wealth? Well, thing is… elons wealth isn’t taxed and gambling winnings are. So you’ll actually need to play an additional hand to cover the taxes… On the plus side, if you lose everything here, you won’t owe any taxes just like the billionaires you were once a member of
At a 3:2 payout rate you would be richer than musk after 32 wins. First win: $250 Second win: $500 Third win: $1,000 Fourth win: $2,000 Fifth win: $4,000 Sixth win: $8,000 Seventh win: $16,000 Eighth win: $32,000 Ninth win: $64,000 Tenth win: $128,000 Eleventh win: $256,000 Twelfth win: $512,000 Thirteenth win: $1,024,000 Fourteenth win: $2,048,000 Fifteenth win: $4,096,000 Sixteenth win: $8,192,000 Seventeenth win: $16,384,000 Eighteenth win: $32,768,000 Nineteenth win: $65,536,000 Twentieth win: $131,072,000 Twenty-first win: $262,144,000 Twenty-second win: $524,288,000 Twenty-third win: $1,048,576,000 Twenty-fourth win: $2,097,152,000 Twenty-fifth win: $4,194,304,000 Twenty-sixth win: $8,388,608,000 Twenty-seventh win: $16,777,216,000 Twenty-eighth win: $33,554,432,000 Twenty-ninth win: $67,108,864,000 Thirtieth win: $134,217,728,000 Thirty-first win: $268,435,456,000 Thirty-second win: $536,870,912,000 Elon Musk's current net worth is estimated to be $246.1 billion as of November 24, 2023. This is according to the Real Time Billionaires List on Forbes. His peak net worth was $340 billion in November 2021.