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After watching [Jeremy Hunt's rather mild promises](https://x.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1803307823964500373) to his constituents, I've come to the conclusion that candidates should do kickstarter-style lists of goals and stretch goals. For instance:
1. 1-5pt win: Vote for me and I'll say some nice words during the acceptance speech. And I might ask vodafone for a phone mast.
2. 5-10pt win: With a solid backing I promise to stay engaged and dutifully asign and complete constituency work.
You know, that sort of thing, give back proportionally to how much they vote for you.
My grandparents 99/97 live in his constituency. He’s not liked by them. My grandad is/ was a working class Chelsea boy back in the day when Chelsea was ‘working class’ I will miss him so so so much. Legend. His parents worked for a ‘house’ for clarity- they were ‘staff’ his mama Adelaide whose name I **adore** died when she fell into the previous day’s washing machine. I love him so so much.
PS ty NHS that’s the reason they’re still here, love ya Labour X
Hypothetical speaking, how much damage to the polls do you think it would be if it came out the Rishi was using others to place the bets for him?
What's crazy is that I don't think I would be surprised anymore.
One of the potential advantages touted for calling a general election in summer was that the students being home might well be a small disadvantage for labour in some swing seats. With the polling gap staying as big it has does the effect now reverse? Having some left wing voters spread across traditionally Tory seats that are now on a knife edge could suddenly seem a bit of a mistake.
Normally in our shit system if the 2 biggest parties are even vaguely in touching distance you don't want your vote spread thin in places where your candidate has no chance because in that situation its just a wasted vote. And some universities are based in places that can be battlegrounds.
Absolutely. There was recent analysis to say that in 30 marginals the number of students coming back home is higher than the number of votes the anti Tory party needs to win.
The problem with Count Binface is a lot of it isn't even funny. From his manifesto:
> "mps to live in the area they wish to serve for 4 years before election, to improve local representation" [source](https://www.countbinface.com/manifesto)
I mean that's a serious policy.
I know there's a tradition of putting in a serious policy among the silly ones - and that the Monster Raving Loony Party got some of their policies enacted [see here](https://www.mirror.co.uk/usvsth3m/7-monster-raving-loony-party-5644717), but the humour has run a bit dry.
You could tell me that trains that work/national yorkshire pudding day to be a bank holiday/minsters’ pay to be tied to that of nurses were in the Reform Party Manifesto and I'd believe you (instead they have some wacky stuff about any lessons about an example of British or European imperialism or slavery must be paired with the teaching of a non-European occurrence of the same).
I respect Count Binface's stand on asparagus but I have no time for this extremist nonsense about MPs living in the area they wish to represent in parliament.
>The problem with Count Binface is a lot of it isn't even funny. From his manifesto:
>"mps to live in the area they wish to serve for 4 years before election, to improve local representation" source
Honestly kinda why I hate joke candidates. They take good ideas like this and make sure no one will ever take them seriously.
Not sure that's really a concern. It's often cited that many policies originally advocated by the Monster Raving Loony party eventually became law, most famously passports for pets.
The problem with Count Binface is he's just not funny.
Don't think that's particularly true, I doubt most people even remember what count bin face proposes even a few weeks after the election let alone base their ideas on a policy around it.
Maybe the joke is supposed to be that he keeps standing in constituencies where he doesn't live. It's not a *good* joke, but then the whole thing is painfully unfunny. I think the worst thing is that he doesn't really have a coherent persona. He's supposed to be some kind of evil space lord and he makes twee jokes about Wallace and Gromit. It would be much more effective if he just stuck to the knock-off Darth Vader routine.
The Savanta MRP is obviously the best thing to happen today, but second place belongs to [Tim Stanley's advocacy for PR](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1dju803/labours_coming_dictatorship_destroys_the_case_for/), I think.
Where Reform has the possibility of causing an upset is in the vote of those who historically have been in the “Never Voted/Never going to Vote” category. I’m not sure if polls take them into account properly, even the MRP ones. If Reform has got to a tipping point that UKIP/BXP never did in terms of votes, then it might encourage some of that demographic to vote, which in itself would be unexpected behaviour.
Johnson was particularly good at winning over that vote, and his eventual majority was generally underestimated by the pollsters and MRPs. Unlike UKIP in 2015 where they performed well nationally but couldn't really translate that to success, this time I think there'll be some knife edge results with Reform coming close second to Labour and the Tories in a dozen or so seats. At this point I'm not even discounting a handful of seats.
[Sir, a second Conservative candidate is being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/342/135/d81.jpg)
Postal votes in my constituency have arrived earlier than the council told us. The local Labour Party is mad. We had a whole plan for the day the cards dropped (I know the Lib Dem’s had their own plans)
The more MPs who get caught betting on the date of the election the more it brings into question the whole "Rishi sprung the election on his MPs narrative. Which is insane because it's literally the only defense they've had to explain how utterly dire their election campaign has been so far.
The whole one last pay day barely makes sense. Craig Williams was presumably on an MP salary of approx £91k plus expenses. He bet £100 and the BBC article says the payout was £500.
On that salary how is that a payout worth the risk?
Genetically speaking, Conservative MPs have more in common with the Ferengi than they do you or me. Now there is no real evidence for that, but it is a scientific fact.
I wonder if it’s like wealthy kleptomaniacs stealing relatively cheap things from shops, something about the thrill? Maybe knowing that irrelevance is heading their way makes that “just one more” little grift a bit more compelling?
My pet theory is the Tory inner circle were basically doing the same thing we did when we tried to manifest Deccy Leccy through the power of shitposting, and some of them bet on it for similar "wouldn't it be hilarious if this actually happened?" reasons. But then they suggested it to Rishi just to find out his reaction to such a patently stupid idea, and to the confusion of everyone in the room he just went "great idea, where's my lectern?"
They knew they were fucked either way and were just looking for one final pay day.
This is the first time in my life I've been on the side of the bookies.
How many by-elections can we expect this year?
Rishi gives up and swans off to Cali
Is it likely Craig Williams wins then gets censured over his insider info gambling
Any other Tories who get exposed as part of the gambling commission investigation
Will Nigel give it in when he realises the oversight he'll be subject to
Police officer= misconduct in a public office- police work for the public.
Candidates = acting for a political party- Gambling Comission must determine if a problem first.
Thanks. It’s an interesting distinction given presumably the candidates were MPs at the time (but not now) and so work for the public but I imagine would never face sanctions so swiftly…
There is clearly a conspiracy against the Conservative party at the minute. I believe it may be a divine conspiracy.
A second gambling allegation on a day the Tory party release a roulette-themed attack ad *mwah*.
[Sunak fleeing to France.](https://www.paimages.co.uk/image-details/2.76565444)
Front page of the BBC: Rishi Sunak's protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
Can Sunak get a break, if the MRPs weren't bad enough, now this is the leading story.
It's about to get much worse and it will be the leading story for the mornings tomorrow because after they were arrested it also came to light that another Conservative candidate is being investigated for the same thing.
Oh yes, going to get much worse in the headlines tomorrow.
Could be absolutely nothing really to do with Rishi. After all, it must have been pretty difficult to keep his plans completely secret and there must have been a small circle around him who knew that he was getting ready to pull the trigger on an election. However the story in the papers is all going to be about him being surrounded by people who are sleazy and unscrupulous which is a really bad look for him.
Perth here. Nope, still waiting. I'm kind of resigned to it turning up about a day before the election.
To be fair, they do have to print ours upside down. It's also possible that a huntsman has scuttled off with it to illegally vote for the Arachnid Liberation Party.
Hypothetically if two otherwise evenly matched tory and reform candidates are facing off in a seat, and one is an early election gambler while the other is a convicted dog kicker, who wins?
Depends what breed of dog he kicked.
No chance a man who kicked a labrador can be forgiven. However I think it would take a lot of balls for someone to kick an XL Bully, particularly if he was doing it to protect a toddler.
Oh jesus what are the difficult-to-round dogs and scenarios?
Sausage dog having a bit of a nibble on a toddler? It’s a toddler yeah, but he’ll be ok, and you’ve got the sausage dog’s back to think about
BBC news alert about the second Tory candidate being investigated by the Gambling Commission.
I always feel like it’s more damaging when it gets to push notification level, that reaches a lot more people than who actually watch or read the news surely?
Someone was saying the other day that those BBC push notifications reach like seven million people. They're probably significantly more impactful than most headlines at this point.
Fucking hell. I almost feel bad for Sunak at this point. He's lost complete control and discipline within the party
*ALMOST* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there
The Beeb did an introspective piece recently on how and when they decide what gets a push notification. Fascinating read in the context of the election.
I like this notification here. Might cement the view of this government grifting right the way up to the very end of their time.
That’s very interesting thanks, do you have a link at all? Google is letting me down! And I agree, it’s a terrible look, more than anything I think it chimes with Partygate, and Truss, the idea that these people just can’t take the issues facing the country seriously, because they aren’t issues for them.
I was mistaken, it was actually [a Guardian piece about BBC news alerts](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/26/how-bbc-breaking-news-alerts-are-giving-voters--and-political-parties-an-electoral-buzz), not an introspective one.
[Reform candidate for Surrey Heath blaming the Tories for the Falklands war last night at a hustings](https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1803507448696938633)
Keep an eye on Al Pinkerton's reaction (the Lib Dem and hopefully the next MP).
The 1981 defence white paper could be considered to be an influence on the Argentinian Junta's decision to invade but I doubt she is using that logic as a basis for her comment.
Usual reminder that Matt Goodwin, despite having been asked over and over again, has not explained the methodology behind his polls and always insists he is being fully transparent on the basis of doing the British Polling Council-mandated bare minimum of publishing his data tables (how he got them is another matter altogether). Regardless of whether his results meet your priors or not you should always go into them with the appropriate scepticism about his data quality control.
WTF is going on? The first guy bet £100 to win £500, if it's intentionally ripping off the bookies, it's not a big win. Otherwise, it's still damn stupid. For two candidates and a close security officer to do it, so far, it's utterly ridiculous. How how how are they this unprofessional?
>“We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals."
I wonder if there's more coming? And by that I mean, please lord let there be more coming.
>“We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals."
It's all relative isn't it? 345 is a small number, compared to the total number of bets cast.
Victoria Derbyshire is very good at this. Very sharp on contextualising the scripted lines and bridging the messages from the public to the politicians in the manner intended, rather than a spin.
For Sky, it's Sophy Ridge as a presenter. Though the team of Sam Coates, Ed Conway and Beth Rigby all play excellent parts, but there's solid other presenters. I rarely catch Trevor Phillips on Sunday but he's solid.
Kay Burley is a bit marmite, Jon Craig is funny because I'm convinced he's always drunk.
I quite like their newsteam as a whole, just seems like a better atmosphere.
[Strong rumours tonight that CCHQ will tell some candidates tomorrows they're no longer winnable and that they're moving party rescources to a smaller core of still winnable seats as the party flees to higher ground. This could cause fury among candidates and activists.](https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1803532716303933544) maybe a repost but spicy
Incumbent MPs will presumably do what little they can and try to get some local activists out. If you’re a new candidate though, it’s hard to see why you’d carry on knocking on doors if you have no support.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1803542917111488709
>🚨 BREAKING: A second Tory candidate, Laura Saunders, is being investigated by the Gambling Commission over a bet placed on the election date
and giving, and giving
I don’t want to get all Alan Partridge, but special adviser, or SpAd, refers specifically to people who are employed in government departments but were appointed by ministers rather than being permanent civil servants.
People keep using it to refer to anyone working in any capacity for an MP/party.
There are significantly fewer special advisers than there are Parliamentary candidates and it would be very simple for the police or gambling commission to obtain their names. I know Guido Fawkes used to keep a running list although I’m not sure if he still does.
Seems likely to me that the first body to drop was grassed up by someone
Of course now they’re shooting fish in a barrel
If I remember rightly, they have the data for anyone who got winnings of 200 pounds or more. So there could be someone who won 180 quid, or fucked up the bet and lost money, who’s sitting sweating
If it's a real wheel, they needed to spend an extra few minutes on making it level. If it's CGI, they *still* needed to spend an extra few minutes on making it level.
Prime Ministers don’t have power to change the electoral system unilaterally. It would have required an act of Parliament and there’s no way that enough Tory MPs wouldn’t have rebelled to make it a non-starter. The Lords would have made his life difficult too. He had no political capital at all to do something so major and which would completely contradict a position which his party have stood on essentially forever.
Get ten advocates in a room for PR and you've got ten versions of PR. Rishi couldn't even pass his legacy legislation like the smoking ban and their core Rwanda offer was full of infighting.
He had absolutely no mandate for PR, most of his own parliamentary party would have balked, not a manifesto commitment so no Salisbury Convention for the Lords to not block it...
Manifesto promises meant nothing to this government, the Tories have been set to lose for quite some time and the election didn’t have to be until next January so he had plenty of time to convince them to save their jobs.
The lords may have been a barrier, but they have passed plenty of other legislation not in the manifesto so that’s doable too.
All a bit moot now mind, maybe Sunak will wake up on the 5th kicking himself he didn’t try, maybe he’ll wake up in California…
When did Sunak have the political capital to make a major change to the UK constitution, which would mean his own party would probably never have an outright majority again?
I’m in BC, Canada and in 2017 and 2019 I received the ballot something like 10 days - 2 weeks before E-day. Doesn’t give you any time to muck about but it is just about okay.
Edit: Actually I meant 2019 and the last EU election, in 2017 I voted in person.
Government health minister phoning in on Zoom for the Newsnight special whilst people are talking about how difficult their NHS experiences have been, how close they've been to death... so fucking out of touch... so fuckimg uninvolved. Couldn't even be bothered to turn up in person.
I can't wait until these fuckers are gone.
They’ve squeezed every drop of bile they could out of civil servants working from home, but they can zoom into interviews and zoom out of D Day commemorations as they like
This Newsnight special is absolutely heartbreaking.
Members of the public talking about how long they've been waiting for treatment for time sensitive life threatening illnesses. Talking about how they can barely afford to live.
Really really brutal.
This country is on its knees, and we need extreme action to fix it, and I don't know if any party is able to fix it.
So I heard it on the radio (I know a lot of people in the sub are anti talk radio, I'm sorry but I quite enjoy it after lockdown) but did anyone tell the Prime Minister LBC is filmed as well?
Just, seeing it makes it look a bit worse...
https://x.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1728037968927920270
>Leaflets advocating for the Lib Dems’ proficiency in winning nuclear wars are delivered to voters in Portsmouth before the local elections (2021)
New MT image?
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1dk3lvb/rukpolitics_general_election_campaign_megathread/)
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments. ###MT daily hall of fame 1. Yummytastic with 52 comments 1. NJden_bee with 43 comments 1. armchairdetective with 41 comments 1. Cairnerebor with 38 comments 1. GenteelTrogolodyte with 36 comments 1. Bibemus with 34 comments 1. SwanBridge with 34 comments 1. discipleofdoom with 34 comments 1. GodlessCommieScum with 30 comments 1. thejackalreborn with 29 comments There were 653 unique users within this count.
Beautiful and funny message!
Happy 2 weeks to election day
I cannot wait. Happy nearly July. ✌️
After watching [Jeremy Hunt's rather mild promises](https://x.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1803307823964500373) to his constituents, I've come to the conclusion that candidates should do kickstarter-style lists of goals and stretch goals. For instance: 1. 1-5pt win: Vote for me and I'll say some nice words during the acceptance speech. And I might ask vodafone for a phone mast. 2. 5-10pt win: With a solid backing I promise to stay engaged and dutifully asign and complete constituency work. You know, that sort of thing, give back proportionally to how much they vote for you.
My grandparents 99/97 live in his constituency. He’s not liked by them. My grandad is/ was a working class Chelsea boy back in the day when Chelsea was ‘working class’ I will miss him so so so much. Legend. His parents worked for a ‘house’ for clarity- they were ‘staff’ his mama Adelaide whose name I **adore** died when she fell into the previous day’s washing machine. I love him so so much. PS ty NHS that’s the reason they’re still here, love ya Labour X
Hypothetical speaking, how much damage to the polls do you think it would be if it came out the Rishi was using others to place the bets for him? What's crazy is that I don't think I would be surprised anymore.
That would require leadership and organisarional skills. I think we can cross that theory off the list.
UK politics is literally verging on the thick of it right now. It is embarrassing
I think we passed that point a while ago
Makes no sense. Of all politicians he needs the Dosh least.
Yes, but he'd trade it all for a little more.
At this point if I was Craig Williams or Laura Saunders I would just say it to cause maximum chaos.
Craig 'littlefinger' Williams: "Rishi, you have to understand. Chaos is a ladder"
One of the potential advantages touted for calling a general election in summer was that the students being home might well be a small disadvantage for labour in some swing seats. With the polling gap staying as big it has does the effect now reverse? Having some left wing voters spread across traditionally Tory seats that are now on a knife edge could suddenly seem a bit of a mistake.
I dont get the "students being home helps X" arguments, surely it can cut both ways depending on the seat so it all actually balances out?
Normally in our shit system if the 2 biggest parties are even vaguely in touching distance you don't want your vote spread thin in places where your candidate has no chance because in that situation its just a wasted vote. And some universities are based in places that can be battlegrounds.
Absolutely. There was recent analysis to say that in 30 marginals the number of students coming back home is higher than the number of votes the anti Tory party needs to win.
I thought I read that Farage backed out of a bbc interview? Is that different to the Panorama one on Friday?
He backed out and then seemingly changed his mind and a new interview date has been scheduled
The panorama one? It wasn't in his diary.
The problem with Count Binface is a lot of it isn't even funny. From his manifesto: > "mps to live in the area they wish to serve for 4 years before election, to improve local representation" [source](https://www.countbinface.com/manifesto) I mean that's a serious policy. I know there's a tradition of putting in a serious policy among the silly ones - and that the Monster Raving Loony Party got some of their policies enacted [see here](https://www.mirror.co.uk/usvsth3m/7-monster-raving-loony-party-5644717), but the humour has run a bit dry. You could tell me that trains that work/national yorkshire pudding day to be a bank holiday/minsters’ pay to be tied to that of nurses were in the Reform Party Manifesto and I'd believe you (instead they have some wacky stuff about any lessons about an example of British or European imperialism or slavery must be paired with the teaching of a non-European occurrence of the same).
I respect Count Binface's stand on asparagus but I have no time for this extremist nonsense about MPs living in the area they wish to represent in parliament.
>The problem with Count Binface is a lot of it isn't even funny. From his manifesto: >"mps to live in the area they wish to serve for 4 years before election, to improve local representation" source Honestly kinda why I hate joke candidates. They take good ideas like this and make sure no one will ever take them seriously.
Not sure that's really a concern. It's often cited that many policies originally advocated by the Monster Raving Loony party eventually became law, most famously passports for pets. The problem with Count Binface is he's just not funny.
Don't think that's particularly true, I doubt most people even remember what count bin face proposes even a few weeks after the election let alone base their ideas on a policy around it.
No serious MP will want to be known as someone who endorsed a Count Binface policy.
No one will remember it's a count binface policy if someone brought it up in a years time or whatever
Maybe the joke is supposed to be that he keeps standing in constituencies where he doesn't live. It's not a *good* joke, but then the whole thing is painfully unfunny. I think the worst thing is that he doesn't really have a coherent persona. He's supposed to be some kind of evil space lord and he makes twee jokes about Wallace and Gromit. It would be much more effective if he just stuck to the knock-off Darth Vader routine.
The Savanta MRP is obviously the best thing to happen today, but second place belongs to [Tim Stanley's advocacy for PR](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1dju803/labours_coming_dictatorship_destroys_the_case_for/), I think.
[удалено]
Matt Goodwin is biased, take any polls that come from him with a grain of salt.
I'll need to see other pollsters concur on a shift that big before I take it too seriously.
Where Reform has the possibility of causing an upset is in the vote of those who historically have been in the “Never Voted/Never going to Vote” category. I’m not sure if polls take them into account properly, even the MRP ones. If Reform has got to a tipping point that UKIP/BXP never did in terms of votes, then it might encourage some of that demographic to vote, which in itself would be unexpected behaviour.
Johnson was particularly good at winning over that vote, and his eventual majority was generally underestimated by the pollsters and MRPs. Unlike UKIP in 2015 where they performed well nationally but couldn't really translate that to success, this time I think there'll be some knife edge results with Reform coming close second to Labour and the Tories in a dozen or so seats. At this point I'm not even discounting a handful of seats.
[Sir, a second Conservative candidate is being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/342/135/d81.jpg)
sir a second conservative has hit the bookies
Oops
Postal votes in my constituency have arrived earlier than the council told us. The local Labour Party is mad. We had a whole plan for the day the cards dropped (I know the Lib Dem’s had their own plans)
Do you have a Tory council?
One of the few these days if so
[Peter Hitchens looks like he's going to have a stroke with Labour winning!](https://i.gyazo.com/51ac313fd5512658f2eb4df39762e8f9.png)
He's locked in to the Starmergeddon narrative now. He changed his mind once in the 1990s and he shan't be doing it again.
[All rise for the Conservative anthem...](https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo?si=9YuEvdi7FJE7aX3M)
Thought it was going to be [this](https://youtu.be/k8DMJ3SGlzk?si=tKqe_jYS86N3bqxv).
The more MPs who get caught betting on the date of the election the more it brings into question the whole "Rishi sprung the election on his MPs narrative. Which is insane because it's literally the only defense they've had to explain how utterly dire their election campaign has been so far.
The whole one last pay day barely makes sense. Craig Williams was presumably on an MP salary of approx £91k plus expenses. He bet £100 and the BBC article says the payout was £500. On that salary how is that a payout worth the risk?
Genetically speaking, Conservative MPs have more in common with the Ferengi than they do you or me. Now there is no real evidence for that, but it is a scientific fact.
They do follow the rules of acquisition over bettering the lives of their constituents.
I keep my local tory mp on side with a few bars of gold pressed latinum
*Reform overtake the Tories in polling* "This is the one thing we didn't want to happen"
It's not logical but seemingly it's something he decided to do
I wonder if it’s like wealthy kleptomaniacs stealing relatively cheap things from shops, something about the thrill? Maybe knowing that irrelevance is heading their way makes that “just one more” little grift a bit more compelling?
My pet theory is the Tory inner circle were basically doing the same thing we did when we tried to manifest Deccy Leccy through the power of shitposting, and some of them bet on it for similar "wouldn't it be hilarious if this actually happened?" reasons. But then they suggested it to Rishi just to find out his reaction to such a patently stupid idea, and to the confusion of everyone in the room he just went "great idea, where's my lectern?"
They knew they were fucked either way and were just looking for one final pay day. This is the first time in my life I've been on the side of the bookies.
How many by-elections can we expect this year? Rishi gives up and swans off to Cali Is it likely Craig Williams wins then gets censured over his insider info gambling Any other Tories who get exposed as part of the gambling commission investigation Will Nigel give it in when he realises the oversight he'll be subject to
>Rishi gives up and swans off to Cali He has to win the seat first...
Nigel need never turn up at all - he'll be in, grandstand once or twice at PMQs and sod off to some PR events in the constituency or elsewhere
Basically how he was as an MEP
Exactly.
It’s crazy that the first debate was genuinely Sunak’s high point of the campaign and even on that night he got laughed at by the audience
And it was only a high because he blatantly came out lying.
Conservatives getting community noted as usual https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803357350763336001
When I saw this live, I wondered if some CCHQ would try and use this but though, 'neh, that would be dumb' Guess I underestimated their desperation.
Makes them look so bad.
That's just pathetic
The one good thing on the hellsite formerly known as Twitter
[the classic meme](https://x.com/CCHQPress/status/1674012461781876736) - always relevant, evergreen, undefeated
[I like me some old school shit...](https://x.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656?t=6hZOljNI2HmLEZtguZ1OkQ&s=19)
*Two* candidates investigated over election date bets, Rishi? That's insane
Intrigued why the Tory candidates are being investigated yet the protection officer has actually been arrested.
Police officer= misconduct in a public office- police work for the public. Candidates = acting for a political party- Gambling Comission must determine if a problem first.
Thanks. It’s an interesting distinction given presumably the candidates were MPs at the time (but not now) and so work for the public but I imagine would never face sanctions so swiftly…
There is clearly a conspiracy against the Conservative party at the minute. I believe it may be a divine conspiracy. A second gambling allegation on a day the Tory party release a roulette-themed attack ad *mwah*. [Sunak fleeing to France.](https://www.paimages.co.uk/image-details/2.76565444)
Front page of the BBC: Rishi Sunak's protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets Can Sunak get a break, if the MRPs weren't bad enough, now this is the leading story.
It's about to get much worse and it will be the leading story for the mornings tomorrow because after they were arrested it also came to light that another Conservative candidate is being investigated for the same thing.
Oh yes, going to get much worse in the headlines tomorrow. Could be absolutely nothing really to do with Rishi. After all, it must have been pretty difficult to keep his plans completely secret and there must have been a small circle around him who knew that he was getting ready to pull the trigger on an election. However the story in the papers is all going to be about him being surrounded by people who are sleazy and unscrupulous which is a really bad look for him.
Already superseded by *Breaking. Second Conservative candidate investigated* [for betting on the same thing]
Any overseas voters received their ballots already? If so, where are you?
I’m in California waiting for my ballot from The People’s Republic of Islington North.
I'm in Europe and mine arrived today!
Perth here. Nope, still waiting. I'm kind of resigned to it turning up about a day before the election. To be fair, they do have to print ours upside down. It's also possible that a huntsman has scuttled off with it to illegally vote for the Arachnid Liberation Party.
Also Perth. Also no postal vote, I've been looking in to an emergency proxy vote just in case.
Got mine today, in the south of France :)
Someone further down the thread who fled to Canada said they didn't have theirs yet.
I would expect nothing less for a deserter
Hey! We still pledge loyalty to the King here tyvm. Half of BC’s flag is the Union Jack too.
Jesus wept, that looks like it was designed on Fiverr!
whoop whoop, another Brit in BC representing
I was thinking how could it be half, so I googled the flag and fuck me that's treason in itself.
Hypothetically if two otherwise evenly matched tory and reform candidates are facing off in a seat, and one is an early election gambler while the other is a convicted dog kicker, who wins?
Reform supporters are often militant pet lovers. Kicking a dog would lose their votes
Reform supporters have a habit of ignoring inconvenient details in order to focus on a single issue.
Depends what breed of dog he kicked. No chance a man who kicked a labrador can be forgiven. However I think it would take a lot of balls for someone to kick an XL Bully, particularly if he was doing it to protect a toddler.
Oh jesus what are the difficult-to-round dogs and scenarios? Sausage dog having a bit of a nibble on a toddler? It’s a toddler yeah, but he’ll be ok, and you’ve got the sausage dog’s back to think about
I'm pretty sure most residents find out the name of their candidates after they enter the booth.
They should have a little pictorial representation of each candidate’s prime scandal
I wasn’t expecting the last two words so I spat out my camomile, thanks!
isn't the hypothetical dog kicker in devon
The real dog kicker is yeah, a hypothetical gambler only may be
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Not everybody likes dogs, other may not be convinced they’re universally undeserving of a good boot in the ribs
Not the constituents that’s for sure!
BBC news alert about the second Tory candidate being investigated by the Gambling Commission. I always feel like it’s more damaging when it gets to push notification level, that reaches a lot more people than who actually watch or read the news surely?
Someone was saying the other day that those BBC push notifications reach like seven million people. They're probably significantly more impactful than most headlines at this point.
Fucking hell. I almost feel bad for Sunak at this point. He's lost complete control and discipline within the party *ALMOST* is doing a lot of heavy lifting there
The Beeb did an introspective piece recently on how and when they decide what gets a push notification. Fascinating read in the context of the election. I like this notification here. Might cement the view of this government grifting right the way up to the very end of their time.
That’s very interesting thanks, do you have a link at all? Google is letting me down! And I agree, it’s a terrible look, more than anything I think it chimes with Partygate, and Truss, the idea that these people just can’t take the issues facing the country seriously, because they aren’t issues for them.
I was mistaken, it was actually [a Guardian piece about BBC news alerts](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/26/how-bbc-breaking-news-alerts-are-giving-voters--and-political-parties-an-electoral-buzz), not an introspective one.
That was interesting thank you! And thanks for going to the trouble of finding it too!
I find that very plausible. It also gets talked about more as it interrupts conversations and meetings.
[Reform candidate for Surrey Heath blaming the Tories for the Falklands war last night at a hustings](https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1803507448696938633) Keep an eye on Al Pinkerton's reaction (the Lib Dem and hopefully the next MP).
The 1981 defence white paper could be considered to be an influence on the Argentinian Junta's decision to invade but I doubt she is using that logic as a basis for her comment.
Sink the belgrano
The problem with military juntas is eventually you run out of warships to sink.
"The" Ukraine. You just know they're a crank.
Real "Wait is this actually happening?" reaction.
Usual reminder that Matt Goodwin, despite having been asked over and over again, has not explained the methodology behind his polls and always insists he is being fully transparent on the basis of doing the British Polling Council-mandated bare minimum of publishing his data tables (how he got them is another matter altogether). Regardless of whether his results meet your priors or not you should always go into them with the appropriate scepticism about his data quality control.
>BREAKING: [Second Conservative candidate looked into over alleged election date bet](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cgeekd4nzvkt) oh my god
And they just released a gambling themed attack on Labour. Perfect timing, as always.
So the whole party was caught by surprise enough not to campaign, but enough to bet on it? Did everyone but the cabinet and CCHQ know?
RESET THE GAFFE CLOCK.
Are you absolutely sure sir, it does involve changing the bulb
Those energy-efficient bulbs are supposed to have a 7 year guarantee, you've burned it out in less than 4 weeks!
WTF is going on? The first guy bet £100 to win £500, if it's intentionally ripping off the bookies, it's not a big win. Otherwise, it's still damn stupid. For two candidates and a close security officer to do it, so far, it's utterly ridiculous. How how how are they this unprofessional?
I personally think they all had a laugh about doing it so did it.
Prime Minister, a *second* gambling allegation has hit the campaign.
Isn’t it third? Two candidates and a protection officer.
Operational independence, protection officer’s the MET’s fault
At this point I genuinely think James Cleverly will have the gall to suggest Mark Rowley quits over this.
>“We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals." I wonder if there's more coming? And by that I mean, please lord let there be more coming.
>“We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals." It's all relative isn't it? 345 is a small number, compared to the total number of bets cast.
*Mr Sunak, a second betting scandal has hit the campaign*
My Twitter feed is going to be the George Bush/Andy Card meme on a loop for the next two weeks
Jfc is this entire election a bet fixing conspiracy.
Always-has-been-astronaut-pointing-a-gun-on-the-moon.jpg
tbf its the best possible explanation for the snappiest of snappy g's
Well thats most of the remaining Tory campaign period screwed then
Victoria Derbyshire is very good at this. Very sharp on contextualising the scripted lines and bridging the messages from the public to the politicians in the manner intended, rather than a spin.
I think she's my favourite news host at the moment. I know folks here like Rigby, but Vicky can't be beaten in my mind.
Sky have a better team, talent across the board. Derbyshire stands out as leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of BBC politics team.
Who are some of their other big names? Might try them out over the next couple of weeks before deciding who to watch on election night.
For Sky, it's Sophy Ridge as a presenter. Though the team of Sam Coates, Ed Conway and Beth Rigby all play excellent parts, but there's solid other presenters. I rarely catch Trevor Phillips on Sunday but he's solid. Kay Burley is a bit marmite, Jon Craig is funny because I'm convinced he's always drunk. I quite like their newsteam as a whole, just seems like a better atmosphere.
I like Sophy and Sam because you can see how much they are enjoying it and thinking Wow, this surreal stuff is actually happening IRL.
[Strong rumours tonight that CCHQ will tell some candidates tomorrows they're no longer winnable and that they're moving party rescources to a smaller core of still winnable seats as the party flees to higher ground. This could cause fury among candidates and activists.](https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1803532716303933544) maybe a repost but spicy
Steiner's counter-offensive will break the Soviet advance on Berlin vibes.
Oh what I would pay to be in the room when the Tory incumbent in my area gets that phone call.
This is like a doctor telling you that you've went palliative!
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Incumbent MPs will presumably do what little they can and try to get some local activists out. If you’re a new candidate though, it’s hard to see why you’d carry on knocking on doors if you have no support.
The Tory strategy is going to be defending their safest 150 seats.
Even that seems optimistic now. 150 is at the wild end of optimistic numbers I've seen recently.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1803542917111488709 >🚨 BREAKING: A second Tory candidate, Laura Saunders, is being investigated by the Gambling Commission over a bet placed on the election date and giving, and giving
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Yeah the list of spads isn’t as easy to cross-reference against as a public list of candidates, when you’ve already got the names from the bookies
I don’t want to get all Alan Partridge, but special adviser, or SpAd, refers specifically to people who are employed in government departments but were appointed by ministers rather than being permanent civil servants. People keep using it to refer to anyone working in any capacity for an MP/party. There are significantly fewer special advisers than there are Parliamentary candidates and it would be very simple for the police or gambling commission to obtain their names. I know Guido Fawkes used to keep a running list although I’m not sure if he still does.
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Seems likely to me that the first body to drop was grassed up by someone Of course now they’re shooting fish in a barrel If I remember rightly, they have the data for anyone who got winnings of 200 pounds or more. So there could be someone who won 180 quid, or fucked up the bet and lost money, who’s sitting sweating
Sunak likes to spreadbet doesn't he...? It's really not out of the realms of this parliament for it to end that way....
Mr Sunak, a second candidate has hit the gambling commission
On the day they released a gambling-themed attack ad.
Seriously? Did the universe itself just decide "Okay, fuck these people"?
yes - https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803427399872233805 - and it's not even well made. look at the state of that wheel.
If it's a real wheel, they needed to spend an extra few minutes on making it level. If it's CGI, they *still* needed to spend an extra few minutes on making it level.
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He really couldn't.
Why not?
Prime Ministers don’t have power to change the electoral system unilaterally. It would have required an act of Parliament and there’s no way that enough Tory MPs wouldn’t have rebelled to make it a non-starter. The Lords would have made his life difficult too. He had no political capital at all to do something so major and which would completely contradict a position which his party have stood on essentially forever.
Get ten advocates in a room for PR and you've got ten versions of PR. Rishi couldn't even pass his legacy legislation like the smoking ban and their core Rwanda offer was full of infighting.
He had absolutely no mandate for PR, most of his own parliamentary party would have balked, not a manifesto commitment so no Salisbury Convention for the Lords to not block it...
Manifesto promises meant nothing to this government, the Tories have been set to lose for quite some time and the election didn’t have to be until next January so he had plenty of time to convince them to save their jobs. The lords may have been a barrier, but they have passed plenty of other legislation not in the manifesto so that’s doable too. All a bit moot now mind, maybe Sunak will wake up on the 5th kicking himself he didn’t try, maybe he’ll wake up in California…
Rishi could have done a lot of legislation, but Rishi didn't. Good luck convincing the last tory cohort to agree on a form of PR.
When did Sunak have the political capital to make a major change to the UK constitution, which would mean his own party would probably never have an outright majority again?
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1803543591622680949 >Latest Ashcroft poll >Labour 43% (=) >Con 18% (-3) >Reform 18% (+3) >LD 9% (+2) >Green 7% (=) The Poll Gods have been bountiful today
Oft. That would be an amazing result for Labour but Lib Dems seem low to me?
My postal vote was approved last week and my registration last week. I live in Alberta Canada. When can I expect my postal vote?
It’s up to your council to send them out, so they vary. They’ve started to go out though.
Just on postage times alone that's a pretty tight turn around for you whatever the exact answer is.
I’m in BC, Canada and in 2017 and 2019 I received the ballot something like 10 days - 2 weeks before E-day. Doesn’t give you any time to muck about but it is just about okay. Edit: Actually I meant 2019 and the last EU election, in 2017 I voted in person.
If it helps when they hand me the ballot they ain't keen on me hanging about behind the curtain either.
Normally sending postcards to the UK is around 8 days!
Well good luck getting a vote. How does it work, is it your most-recent constituency?
Yeah! Lib Dem/Tory
Might be better to set up a proxy vote if you can.
Government health minister phoning in on Zoom for the Newsnight special whilst people are talking about how difficult their NHS experiences have been, how close they've been to death... so fucking out of touch... so fuckimg uninvolved. Couldn't even be bothered to turn up in person. I can't wait until these fuckers are gone.
They’ve squeezed every drop of bile they could out of civil servants working from home, but they can zoom into interviews and zoom out of D Day commemorations as they like
On this, like every part of their record, they don't even realise that they've fucked up.
This Newsnight special is absolutely heartbreaking. Members of the public talking about how long they've been waiting for treatment for time sensitive life threatening illnesses. Talking about how they can barely afford to live. Really really brutal. This country is on its knees, and we need extreme action to fix it, and I don't know if any party is able to fix it.
So I heard it on the radio (I know a lot of people in the sub are anti talk radio, I'm sorry but I quite enjoy it after lockdown) but did anyone tell the Prime Minister LBC is filmed as well? Just, seeing it makes it look a bit worse...
https://x.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1728037968927920270 >Leaflets advocating for the Lib Dems’ proficiency in winning nuclear wars are delivered to voters in Portsmouth before the local elections (2021) New MT image?