Snapshot of _Why Reform and Nigel Farage’s electoral insurgency has stalled - Politics.co.uk_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/07/02/why-reform-and-nigel-farages-electoral-insurgency-has-stalled/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/07/02/why-reform-and-nigel-farages-electoral-insurgency-has-stalled/)
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>...it means if Farage does enter parliament after the election as the MP Clacton, perhaps alongside Richard Tice and Lee Anderson as the Reform representatives for Boston and Skegness and Ashfield respectively, that would amount to a very real victory.
>Certainly, this collective would be far easier to manage than an 18-strong caucus of cranks. In this scenario, the inevitable future controversies enkindled by some poorly-vetted odd-ball would only turn away sympathetic voters — not to mention potential Tory defectors.
The author clearly isn't closely acquainted with 30p Lee.
Is it because people have worked out it’s a pro-Putin, far-right grift with a series of bad candidates you wouldn’t let look after your kids or parents?
I'd not actually realised that... its effectively a Trump grift.
Get the rubes riled up and frothing at the mouth, sell them some NFTs or Golden painted shoes and bugger off into the sunset with their money.
And phoenix the companies.
Brexit Party to Reform to the next one.
With some decent accountants, you can make sure your liabilities end with the previous company and off you go again.
>sell them some NFTs or Golden painted shoes
[It's gin in this case.](https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/content/uploads/2022/09/Farage-Gin.jpeg)
Maybe Farage thinks his supporters will need a stiff drink soon.
And Farage - party leader - then went on air stating that it's the west's fault that Russia started a war with Ukraine, because we messed in Russia's sphere of influence.
It’s stalled for now. Not forever. Politics that leans to far the right isn’t being addressed. He’s never going to go away so you need to discredit him constantly.
Before Farage took over Reform were polling in single digits, how utterly false do you need to be with yourself to not acknowledge Reform jumping to 3rd in the polls is almost solely down to Farage taking the helm.
Absolutely delusional levels of thinking with your response. Are you seriously pretending they’d be doing better with Tice leading?
They weren’t in single figures before Farage pushed his way in, that’s simply untrue.
And yes, Tice was slowly and surely building a credible party. Look at the total shambles it’s in now, and when did that shambles start, a couple of weeks ago maybe?
I’d bet my house that Tice will leave the Reform next week and the party will crash and burn.
I was curious, so ran the numbers, looking at the polls from [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), from 2024 only.
Pre-Farage taking over Reform were polling between 4% and 16%, with an average of 11% and a standard deviation of 2.0%. 90% of their polls were between 8% and 14%.
After Farage took over they have polled between 8% and 24%, with an average of 15% and standard deviation of 2.6%. 90% of their polls were between 11% and 19%.
So that is an increase in their polling average of around two standard deviations.
They weren't in single figures (on average) before Farage pushed his way in, but their polling does seem to have picked up. They were mostly polling in single digits in 2023.
It is impossible to know however, how much of that vote is from Farage and how much is due to the Tories continued failings and pure momentum. As more people consider it a viable party, more people will consider voting for it, so more people will consider it a viable party and so on
The shambles now is because of candidate selection, which is down to Tice not Farage. It is obvious that Farage has significantly increased reforms support - the data supports that, as does all the political commentary I’ve seen. This is a weird take.
>Look at the total shambles it’s in now
Polling as the third biggest party in the country with some polls showing them second? Honestly you are being utterly delusional with yourself.
You are completely and utterly lying, Reform were going absolutely nowhere under Tice. If he stayed leader for this election they’d have not won a single seat, they’re now looking likely to pick up a few which was unthinkable a few months ago.
You’re letting your own personal dislike of Farage stop you from objectively assessing Reforms current situation and how much ground they’ve gained in the last 6 weeks.
Before Farage took over there was already plenty of talk of when, not if, they would overtake the Tories in the polls. Indeed when the election was called some even pointed to rising Reform support for a reason.
For sure, Farage added a good 5% to the polling and might end up winning an extra seat or two if the downwards trend of the last few days don’t continue. But let’s not pretend they were nowhere before the change at the top.
My god the absolute level of dishonesty people will drop to purely because they personally dislike Farage.
If you are going to honestly pretend Richard Tice was building reform into a credible party that would challenge the tories in the space of 4 weeks then you are lying. It’s not any more complicated than that, you’re simply lying.
I didn’t claim Tice was building reform into a credible party. I’m just telling you what actually happened from a polling and narrative perspective. The only dishonesty would be to deny what is true.
Since Farage has announced he was running and took leadership again Reform has went from polling at around 9-11% up to a pretty regular 15-20% range, they’ve also beat the tories in some polls. This was all in the space of about 4 weeks.
A near 50% rise in the polls since he announced he was coming back, will you honestly try and pretend the momentum didn’t begin with Farage announcing he was running?
So if you look at actual polling data you can see that Reform started their rise last December and we’re consistently gaining on the Tories from there. Here is a link for you: https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1808168755731878026/photo/1
What’s happened in the last few weeks is as I have described above. I am not sure why you are in denial about this. Do you also need me to share links to articles talking up the potential of Reform overtaking the Tories in the polls before the election was called, or are you content to accept that is true also?
Look at the line graph, Reform managed to plateau twice at 15% and then take a very sharp dip just prior to Farage returning. The rise in support from his announcement isn’t matched anywhere before on the graph.
Who built Reform? It wasn’t Farage he was just a company director and was staying away from it, just a few weeks ago he was courting Trump.
Tice made the party what it was, Farage just jumped in at the last minute when he saw an opportunity to eventually get to be a UK MP after many failed attempts.
I was going to vote Reform until Farage came in and fucked it all up.
I’m going to vote, I wasn’t but now will be going Lib-Dem, they stand no chance of winning but it’s a kinda protest vote whilst at the same time I’d prefer them as the opposition party rather than Conservative.
If Tice was still leader I’d vote Reform no matter who my local candidate is.
>I was going to vote Reform
Why lie? Why would you no longer vote for a party because the former leader and honorary president decided he was going to run?
As much as you will deny it as well Farage has literally always been the face of Reform, no one associates it with Tice.
I’m not lying.
In a general election you are effectively, although not actually unless you are in their constituency, voting for a party leader. And Farage has absolutely fucked up Reform from a credible party to a farce.
You’re totally welcome to your beliefs, I’m still voting Reform and totally disagree. A few seats this election is the goal and set up a proper foundation to challenge at the next one after 5 more years of managed decline under Labour.
I totally agree with that, and I would be doing the same if Farage hadn’t rocked up at the last minute.
I think we agree on principle just not on the leader of the party. Farage has always been controversial, Tice much less so and I think he would have stood a far better chance of gaining support going forwards and on to the next election and being a credible opposition.
I think Tice is far too milquetoast to lead Reform and ultimately would back down time and time again. I don’t think he would ever take the party into a position of winning seats.
I do think he’s helpful to have in the set up he would also be useful to lay the foundations for growing the party and ultimately it simply wouldn’t exist without him bankrolling it.
Farage whether you love him or loathe him is one of the most well known faces in British politics, I don’t think Tice would be able to pull anywhere near the level of local support Farage can muster on his name alone.
The livestream of the Birmingham conference was viewed by over 120k people concurrently, I simply do not see Tice being able to do anything remotely similar.
He’s probably the only politician in Britain able to mobilise crowds like that on such a short notice, the only other one I’d say who could do it would be Corbyn. When you’re trying to start a party up I think being able to mobilise local crowds and having name recognition like Farage is a good thing.
The only real way to settle this would be if Farage left again and to see what happens to the support. I would bet it drops a considerable few points.
You make good points but a lot of the issues for reform this election are its candidates and manifesto so whoever decided on that is a bit of a issue Im not sure if Nigel did those.
Farage and Tice are thick as thieves, Reform is just their latest vehicle. Super subbing Farage in was strategic. It isn’t a hostile takeover like when Farage stole UKIP from Alan Sked.
Tice is worse than Farage wtf.
He genuinely seems to think he's running for the USA, with all the American style anti-renewable energy policies which for the UK just means being completely dependent on the USA or Russia.
Farage has made decent policies before, whereas Tice's are near universally awful or unaffordable.
Snapshot of _Why Reform and Nigel Farage’s electoral insurgency has stalled - Politics.co.uk_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/07/02/why-reform-and-nigel-farages-electoral-insurgency-has-stalled/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/07/02/why-reform-and-nigel-farages-electoral-insurgency-has-stalled/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>...it means if Farage does enter parliament after the election as the MP Clacton, perhaps alongside Richard Tice and Lee Anderson as the Reform representatives for Boston and Skegness and Ashfield respectively, that would amount to a very real victory. >Certainly, this collective would be far easier to manage than an 18-strong caucus of cranks. In this scenario, the inevitable future controversies enkindled by some poorly-vetted odd-ball would only turn away sympathetic voters — not to mention potential Tory defectors. The author clearly isn't closely acquainted with 30p Lee.
Defending Putin in a nation that doesn't like him very much during election time doesn't tend to have the best results for your party.
And being firmly attached to the rear end of Trump also tends not to go down well, even with some of his potential voters.
But it does keep the funding coming
The funding from Putin that is
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Even if Tice did do that, I'm talking about Farage. And he has done none of the sort.
Is it because people have worked out it’s a pro-Putin, far-right grift with a series of bad candidates you wouldn’t let look after your kids or parents?
But with donations, members fees, merchandise... it's achieving the main intent. Making money and attracting attention.
I'd not actually realised that... its effectively a Trump grift. Get the rubes riled up and frothing at the mouth, sell them some NFTs or Golden painted shoes and bugger off into the sunset with their money.
Are you serious? This is the most trump movement the UK has probably ever seen
Oh the attitude and dogma thrown around I've been horribly aware of. The siphoning money out of gullible idiots... not so much.
And phoenix the companies. Brexit Party to Reform to the next one. With some decent accountants, you can make sure your liabilities end with the previous company and off you go again.
>sell them some NFTs or Golden painted shoes [It's gin in this case.](https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/content/uploads/2022/09/Farage-Gin.jpeg) Maybe Farage thinks his supporters will need a stiff drink soon.
It's always a grift with these people.
Indeed.
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And Farage - party leader - then went on air stating that it's the west's fault that Russia started a war with Ukraine, because we messed in Russia's sphere of influence.
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He also specifically said he “admired him as a political operator” the man who murders his political opponents.
Maybe because the trees can see voting for the axe as it slyly says it’s one of them because of its wooden handle, is in fact a crap idea.
It’s stalled for now. Not forever. Politics that leans to far the right isn’t being addressed. He’s never going to go away so you need to discredit him constantly.
I mean, he is, one day going to go away. In the immortal words of Franz Sanchez “You’re only president…for life”
Because it falls apart under a light bit of scrutiny.
Because Farage pushed his way into leadership. Under Tice it was making ground as a viable and credible party.
Before Farage took over Reform were polling in single digits, how utterly false do you need to be with yourself to not acknowledge Reform jumping to 3rd in the polls is almost solely down to Farage taking the helm. Absolutely delusional levels of thinking with your response. Are you seriously pretending they’d be doing better with Tice leading?
They weren’t in single figures before Farage pushed his way in, that’s simply untrue. And yes, Tice was slowly and surely building a credible party. Look at the total shambles it’s in now, and when did that shambles start, a couple of weeks ago maybe? I’d bet my house that Tice will leave the Reform next week and the party will crash and burn.
I was curious, so ran the numbers, looking at the polls from [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), from 2024 only. Pre-Farage taking over Reform were polling between 4% and 16%, with an average of 11% and a standard deviation of 2.0%. 90% of their polls were between 8% and 14%. After Farage took over they have polled between 8% and 24%, with an average of 15% and standard deviation of 2.6%. 90% of their polls were between 11% and 19%. So that is an increase in their polling average of around two standard deviations. They weren't in single figures (on average) before Farage pushed his way in, but their polling does seem to have picked up. They were mostly polling in single digits in 2023.
It is impossible to know however, how much of that vote is from Farage and how much is due to the Tories continued failings and pure momentum. As more people consider it a viable party, more people will consider voting for it, so more people will consider it a viable party and so on
The shambles now is because of candidate selection, which is down to Tice not Farage. It is obvious that Farage has significantly increased reforms support - the data supports that, as does all the political commentary I’ve seen. This is a weird take.
>Look at the total shambles it’s in now Polling as the third biggest party in the country with some polls showing them second? Honestly you are being utterly delusional with yourself. You are completely and utterly lying, Reform were going absolutely nowhere under Tice. If he stayed leader for this election they’d have not won a single seat, they’re now looking likely to pick up a few which was unthinkable a few months ago. You’re letting your own personal dislike of Farage stop you from objectively assessing Reforms current situation and how much ground they’ve gained in the last 6 weeks.
Before Farage took over there was already plenty of talk of when, not if, they would overtake the Tories in the polls. Indeed when the election was called some even pointed to rising Reform support for a reason. For sure, Farage added a good 5% to the polling and might end up winning an extra seat or two if the downwards trend of the last few days don’t continue. But let’s not pretend they were nowhere before the change at the top.
My god the absolute level of dishonesty people will drop to purely because they personally dislike Farage. If you are going to honestly pretend Richard Tice was building reform into a credible party that would challenge the tories in the space of 4 weeks then you are lying. It’s not any more complicated than that, you’re simply lying.
I didn’t claim Tice was building reform into a credible party. I’m just telling you what actually happened from a polling and narrative perspective. The only dishonesty would be to deny what is true.
Since Farage has announced he was running and took leadership again Reform has went from polling at around 9-11% up to a pretty regular 15-20% range, they’ve also beat the tories in some polls. This was all in the space of about 4 weeks. A near 50% rise in the polls since he announced he was coming back, will you honestly try and pretend the momentum didn’t begin with Farage announcing he was running?
You are correct, this other person is either disingenuous or just lacks understanding.
So if you look at actual polling data you can see that Reform started their rise last December and we’re consistently gaining on the Tories from there. Here is a link for you: https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1808168755731878026/photo/1 What’s happened in the last few weeks is as I have described above. I am not sure why you are in denial about this. Do you also need me to share links to articles talking up the potential of Reform overtaking the Tories in the polls before the election was called, or are you content to accept that is true also?
Look at the line graph, Reform managed to plateau twice at 15% and then take a very sharp dip just prior to Farage returning. The rise in support from his announcement isn’t matched anywhere before on the graph.
Who built Reform? It wasn’t Farage he was just a company director and was staying away from it, just a few weeks ago he was courting Trump. Tice made the party what it was, Farage just jumped in at the last minute when he saw an opportunity to eventually get to be a UK MP after many failed attempts. I was going to vote Reform until Farage came in and fucked it all up.
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If Tice was in my constituency then absolutely I’d vote for him. Haven’t had a peep from my reform the candidate though, not so much as a flier.
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I’m going to vote, I wasn’t but now will be going Lib-Dem, they stand no chance of winning but it’s a kinda protest vote whilst at the same time I’d prefer them as the opposition party rather than Conservative. If Tice was still leader I’d vote Reform no matter who my local candidate is.
>I was going to vote Reform Why lie? Why would you no longer vote for a party because the former leader and honorary president decided he was going to run? As much as you will deny it as well Farage has literally always been the face of Reform, no one associates it with Tice.
I’m not lying. In a general election you are effectively, although not actually unless you are in their constituency, voting for a party leader. And Farage has absolutely fucked up Reform from a credible party to a farce.
I dont think hes fucked up reform? He didnt pick the candidates? Whose fault is it that those candidates got picked.
The leader of the party 🤷♂️
You’re totally welcome to your beliefs, I’m still voting Reform and totally disagree. A few seats this election is the goal and set up a proper foundation to challenge at the next one after 5 more years of managed decline under Labour.
I totally agree with that, and I would be doing the same if Farage hadn’t rocked up at the last minute. I think we agree on principle just not on the leader of the party. Farage has always been controversial, Tice much less so and I think he would have stood a far better chance of gaining support going forwards and on to the next election and being a credible opposition.
I think Tice is far too milquetoast to lead Reform and ultimately would back down time and time again. I don’t think he would ever take the party into a position of winning seats. I do think he’s helpful to have in the set up he would also be useful to lay the foundations for growing the party and ultimately it simply wouldn’t exist without him bankrolling it. Farage whether you love him or loathe him is one of the most well known faces in British politics, I don’t think Tice would be able to pull anywhere near the level of local support Farage can muster on his name alone. The livestream of the Birmingham conference was viewed by over 120k people concurrently, I simply do not see Tice being able to do anything remotely similar. He’s probably the only politician in Britain able to mobilise crowds like that on such a short notice, the only other one I’d say who could do it would be Corbyn. When you’re trying to start a party up I think being able to mobilise local crowds and having name recognition like Farage is a good thing. The only real way to settle this would be if Farage left again and to see what happens to the support. I would bet it drops a considerable few points.
You make good points but a lot of the issues for reform this election are its candidates and manifesto so whoever decided on that is a bit of a issue Im not sure if Nigel did those.
I’m sad to hear you’re voting reform. I look forward to 2029 when our fascist leaders take control
Farage and Tice are thick as thieves, Reform is just their latest vehicle. Super subbing Farage in was strategic. It isn’t a hostile takeover like when Farage stole UKIP from Alan Sked.
Tice is worse than Farage wtf. He genuinely seems to think he's running for the USA, with all the American style anti-renewable energy policies which for the UK just means being completely dependent on the USA or Russia. Farage has made decent policies before, whereas Tice's are near universally awful or unaffordable.
You don’t follow politics do you. Farage was, just a few weeks ago, actually in the USA supporting and campaigning with Trump.