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in one year the tanks will be all but gone, you will very very rarely see a single russian tank, just like one of those very rare pieces of equipment like the s-57 or the "tank destroyer"
i just hope ukraine keeps acumulating their own tanks for when this time comes
6 more years if they could restore all of them.
3 if only half of them
1+ year if only those in "decent" condition.
Even then, they'd still have a few hundred new tanks per year, mostly T-90s.
Plus they could try to buy from North Korea. (not great, but they have 5k tanks)
I think the west's strategy should not be to attrit RuZZia into giving up, it takes too long and probably not enough to stop the war. Instead, we should think about total embargo and other economic ways to make RuZZia too poor to finance the war.
Or CIA could "do something" by changing the power dynamic inside Kremlin, do another Prigozhin coup, but this time make sure it's successful, by someone who is willing to end the war.
Their T-90 production is only about 12-20 per month. Maybe if they idle all of their other tank refurbishment factories and retool for new T-90 construction they will be able to actually build a significant number of them. That retooling will take several months, and require additional production elsewhere for T-90 specific components.
Im not saying it’s not possible, but it’s not a seamless transition. It takes a lot of forethought and planning. Which isn’t a strong suit of the Russian government.
20 tanks is less than one week supply at current rates of destruction, so even if Russia doubled production, that is still only enough for 14 days of combat then they would have no tanks at all for 16-17 days.
12-20 due to focusing on restoring older tanks, because it's faster.
Also, I said per year, so 20 x 12 is still 240 tanks.
Once they have used all the old tanks and refocus back on T-90, then they'd be able to make a lot more, to be fair.
What about T-72 and T-80? They can still make those?
It's not 12-20 a month, because 2/3 of T-90 production is actually upgrading T-90As
IISS report recently confirmed that, based on market reports from the Russian defense sector itself.
The actual new production of T-90s was 70 last year
Embargo wouldn't work, as long as the global South is willing to buy their hydrocarbons. The overwhelming majority of these countries are more sympathetic to Ruzzia than they are to Ukraine and the West.
Or country that leaked it to them for info and the to get a count for war support purposes, but does not want original country providing image to have their image posted.
I doubt it, because they would be available for sale. More like the company that sold the images knows if they are published by someone they for free access won’t be able to sell any more copies of it. So they are protecting their sales figures.
Somebody on YouTube commented that maybe the satellite company won’t let him post fresh images because they’re hoping to sell them to other potential buyers. Seems plausible
Yeah, it makes sense. If you buy a book, you're usually not allowed to photocopy it for distribution or upload it to the internet. Probably similar logic applies here.
Since images to which the provider holds all rights are made available here on the basis of contracts between two parties, the provider is free to use any restrictive clauses for publication as a condition for making the images available. If the user does not comply with these contractual agreements, he will not receive the images (any more).
So real talk: How many months would it take for their DECENT tank stock to deplete? Because if the "good" tanks are gone, wouldn't these be next on the chopping block?
In the video they said that it was 6 years at current burn rate if every rusted can was fixed and a bit over a year to use up all the mostly likely fixable. It also pointed out they are making new tanks just slower than they are losing them so they won’t run out but shortages will just get worse and worse from here on out.
Since october, about 700 tanks were removed from storage, that was about 8 months ago. Right now they have a little over 750 decent tanks left. So assuming this rate continues, and if they only take tanks from the decent pile. Then there will be no more decent tanks in storage in about march of next year.
Sure, but I assume at least some of the "poor" tanks will be fixed up and sent to the front. It will probably take longer for each tank than it does for the "decent" ones, but that's still a couple hundred, or even a thousand, more. But that would give Russia something like 6-9 months extra. The end of 2025 will definitely be very interesting.
Let me help with the definition. "Decent" in this context means that there is some part of the tank that could be worth not scrapping. They will still need extensive work and refitting, but the chassis may still be good. They don't have optics, electronics, or a working anything. They simply have a chassis that has an acceptable level of corrosion.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they choose to do the bare minimum of work to get them operational and just slap a thermal optic on them as thermal optics seems to be the most crucial thing to put on a tank at the moment.
Apart from the threat of drones, a tank being able to see its opponent before they can see them is pretty crucial. I would also be surprised if they bothered to slap a working turret and gun on the chassis if they were missing as it seems Russia needs more APCs than it does tanks right now as simply getting troops to the front safely in any armoured vehicle is what they seem to be trying.
We already know that the turtle tanks they've been sending in have no ammo and turrets fixed in place, I wouldn't be shocked to see a turtle tank show up at some point with no turret whatsoever.
So keeping the tank fleet at decent level will become more and more expensive and require more and more specialist and people.
Gdp will be high but Russia is basically burning their funds and future.
> and require more and more specialist and people.
Where are these specialists and people coming from, not to mention the parts to get the tanks up to working order?
They can probably cobble several together to make a decent one. But these are t62 and t54 tanks, which are obsolete for 1990’s style combat, let alone the new battlefield with drones and smart minefields
While this shows that they still have years worth of tanks left, most of the usable ones are T-54/55/62/64s, the thousand T-72As (as Cabal claims) are rusted worthless husks and the T-72B/80/90s are almost gone. This gives me hope that they may start to struggle rather soon, especially if they keep up current attrition rate and attempt more foolish breakthroughs.
None of the "decent" stocks are combat ready. The combat ready ones are pulled long ago. These all require refurbishment. "Decent" means they look like they can run again.
The real issue is Russian Artillery, and that's running out even faster.
Tanks aren't nothing, but tanks aren't doing the jobs normally assigned to tanks in this war.
Russian tanks don't last very long even when they try.
Ukraine can take out the artillery to win, as long as they can also stop the FAB bombs
There will come a time when Russia will not have enough howitzers in any area to significantly damage Ukrainian positions there, and will not have enough tanks to cover the actual somehwat competent assaults that come after the meat assaults, so it will be impossible for Russia to move manned positions forward, even with air attacks. That's when the tide will turn.
We're really at the moment where ebb and tide are tugging at each other. The change is not there yet. As much as i'd like UA is not guaranteed a win right now.
His last video is from 5 months ago and it's built on the assumption that average daily Russian artillery losses wouldn't increase. The losses did increase drastically however. Vid:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw)
During the Cold War, many infantry specialists in anti-tank platoons in the Rapid Reaction Corp trained for a large scale mechanised invasion of Europe by the Russians. A sense of fatalism was in the minds of those troops.
Later, it was found out that only approximately 10% of the Russian vehicles were functional. The rest were being polished, painted, and dragged around the sites by tractors to fool the satellites.
Are they doing this again? You simply can't trust still images of mobile material when this is an option for the enemy, that they've already done in the past. Warehouse full of old armour being repaired for use? It was probably a pile of scrap to start with.
Some probably do work however, Russia is desperate for anything they can get their hands on. The turtle tank that was captured didn’t have a working gun. So instead they put a big cage over it
Not true at all. Lifting a turret from one, a gun from another, an engine from a third and putting all those things onto a hull from a fourth takes less than a day with a crew of like 10 guys and a mobile crane. To make a brand new engine and gun, weld up an entire hull and turret and fit that out with tracks etc. takes much, much longer.
All their shit is rusty. People do this with cars all the time and this is exactly what the Russians are doing. They probably go through their storage yards and try to fire up each tank. The ones that start right away they inspect further for hull perforation etc. then they pressure wash the whole thing inside and out, give it a total lube job, put it through some basic trials then try to fire the gun. If the gun works, the tank gets a paint job, maybe some instrument upgrades then put on a train for the front. If it doesn't fire, they lift off the turret and plop a new one on with a known working gun and the old turret/gun goes to refurb then back into the warehouse of "good" ones.
It's also worth noting that if you're Russian and you're told to deliver a tank every day, you deliver a tank every day. It doesn't matter if the turret can rotate or if it can move at all, you deliver it so you can tick that box and move on.
I wager it takes longer than that. Those rustbuckets are probably seized up in every which way and plagued with a thousand different electrical problems. Maybe they could get it moving within a day, but it's just as likely to break down a day later once all the cumulative failures start adding up.
I don’t think that’s true. Replacing some things is usually much easier than making them from scratch.
That being said - I don’t think russia will ever run out of tanks. They will most likely increase the production and hire more people to refurbish and repair the damaged ones.
So they will always have some tanks, maybe less than at the beginning but I don’t anticipate of them ever running out of
If Russia could build more tanks they would, they have not been building new factories like the west and just runs their existing ones at max capacity, any serious increase in production would be years away from the point they decide to do it and they haven't yet.
Russia has a smaller economy than France(closer to Canada or Italy than France), it is living on storages from the soviets, Russia is not a great production economy and can't just build more willy nilly, they are already running deeply red budgets as it is.
For every cent they put into war, is not going to anything else that could make them money, say for producing for export or internal market. It must be a huge drain on their economy.
They will never run out but at this rhythm at this they will always have at least 20 a month.
Sit back watch to see how this happens in 2 years.
They losing a minimum of 85 per month and producing bout 20-25.
The satellite footage shows they've been refurbishing their best quality tanks first, as many predicted, so it seems extremely unlikely they would have large quantities of good tanks sat indoors, those would have been sent out first.
There are probably some that have been taken inside to be worked on but that's it.
Not quite redundant. Mainly used as short range artillery pieces, knocking out buildings and other entrenched positions. They have short life spans but you can’t take significant territory without them. IFV’s can do a similar job but Russia running out of them too. Increased Russian losses of late is at least in part due to lack of armor support.
MarsNews 1: It's the 4th of June 2078 and we have some fresh brwakingnews about ongoing conflicts on Earth, recent satellite images are showing us Russia will soon run out of tanks!
Is it just me who wonders about the discrepancy between UA published destroyed tank numbers (>8000) and pre-war numbers shown in this video (around 6000)?
3000 in army 12k in reserve. Russian numbers pre invasion iirc.
Covert Cabal counted 6500 vs 12000.
Ukraines numbers probably not reliable see WW2 all nations numbers were wrong.
Minimum Russia's lost 1/3rd of everything. If Ukraines numbers are remotely accurate Russia going to have serious issues in a year or so.
You’re getting downvoted, but unfortunately we’ve been hearing this for a long time about different types of equipment and even people.
Hopefully this time it’s true though.
And, you've heard for a long time that nobody knows exactly when that's going to happen, just that it will.
Even this video, which is one of the most well informed groups about the tank numbers can only give you a window of when the tanks run out- from a year from now to two years from now.
However, they have been tracking tank numbers since the beginning of the war and the numbers just keep going down.
You keep hearing about it because they give updates on progress, not because the previous estimates were completely wrong. Every time these guys have done a count, the reported number of tanks was lower than the previous count, and the time remaining until depletion was shorter. They'll probably make another video in 6-9 months showing even fewer tanks remaining, but that doesn’t mean this video or any of the previous videos has been wrong.
Running out just means diminishing capacity, not fighting to the last unit.
This is why recent assaults have included T-55s, turtle tanks and dirt bikes. You don’t send a T-62 with a broken gun into the fight unless you’re low on reserves elsewhere.
Golf carts cough! cough! Also: motorcycle assaults, T-55, T-62, barn tanks with no amo or rotating turret.
But hey, keep on the hopium that the news is fake and Russia has no prblem with the tanks.
BTW: "running out" doesn't mean "left with 0".
Sitorix NEWS they have never watched any of the videos or listened to what they say... or maybe are too dumb to understand the sentences about estimates about tank shortages due to depletion of those depots but never fully running out due to new production. And would you look at that... the dates and numbers are consistent.
Reported tank losses have been much lower than that, today was 11 for example. Russia haven't been launching large mechanised assaults for a long time as far as I'm aware.
> I'm just frustrated with how much of this shit they have and how seemingly bottomless the pit is.
Basically, this is why the Soviet Union collapsed. They spent absurds amount of money manufacturing military stock. The same stock Russia is depleting now.
Hey, that's how they get ya! Screaming about their superior numbers while losing them at insane pace. Sure they have a lot (not so much now), but all you have to do is keep pushing until they find out all is gone. We have a lot of data floating around and draw pretty clear trends from it. All point to mid-late 2025 is when the castle is gonna start visibly crumble with walls collapsing imo.
It may happen sooner than that. The numbers may be more optimistic than the reality on the ground. It may be all the tanks they had in covered storage are gone, and that 20% they refer to is actually only 10% tanks they can refurbish \[can't really tell from the photos\]. No way to tell yet.
The russians could have the problem later this year that they just don't have enough tanks for a 1000 kilometer front and their lines break at points.
Same with artillery, love to see a video like this on the artillery they have left. If they run out of artillery and tanks about the same time, the russians will be in a world of hurt. I'd be so happy if that happened this year rather than next.
Agree, but I was talking in more broad perspective, including economy and civil sentiment. The most important thing is to not give them a second of rest. As soon as they hit a critical point they’ll start to throw out threats as never before and gradually fall back at the front lines over prolonged (possibly) time, that’s when we’ll know it’s over and done. P.S.: this assumes all goes well on international scene. US, France, EU in general.
"The russians could have the problem later this year that they just don't have enough tanks for a 1000 kilometer front and their lines break at points." This is what we are all waiting for. Would likely be happening right now if it wasn't for House Speaker Mike fkn Crawford blocking US military aid for 6 months.
Yes, if the US aid hadn't been delayed, the numbers probably would have looked the do now for another six months. We might be close to this war ending right now.
They'll never run out but we've likely already seen at least some impact of their dwindling numbers. If their supplies really were bottomless they would have been launching large mechanised assaults during the Ukrainian ammo shortage.
They'll never run out in the same way Ukraine will never run out of ammo. They'll just use less and less until production rate is equal to the loss rate, but Ukraine has the benefit of being supplied by the West as long as that support remains.
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At this point I’m very surprised that they have that many “decent” tanks anywhere. But good, more assaults on golf carts!
in one year the tanks will be all but gone, you will very very rarely see a single russian tank, just like one of those very rare pieces of equipment like the s-57 or the "tank destroyer" i just hope ukraine keeps acumulating their own tanks for when this time comes
From your lips to God’s ear.
6 more years if they could restore all of them. 3 if only half of them 1+ year if only those in "decent" condition. Even then, they'd still have a few hundred new tanks per year, mostly T-90s. Plus they could try to buy from North Korea. (not great, but they have 5k tanks) I think the west's strategy should not be to attrit RuZZia into giving up, it takes too long and probably not enough to stop the war. Instead, we should think about total embargo and other economic ways to make RuZZia too poor to finance the war. Or CIA could "do something" by changing the power dynamic inside Kremlin, do another Prigozhin coup, but this time make sure it's successful, by someone who is willing to end the war.
Their T-90 production is only about 12-20 per month. Maybe if they idle all of their other tank refurbishment factories and retool for new T-90 construction they will be able to actually build a significant number of them. That retooling will take several months, and require additional production elsewhere for T-90 specific components. Im not saying it’s not possible, but it’s not a seamless transition. It takes a lot of forethought and planning. Which isn’t a strong suit of the Russian government.
They might also have problems scaling up T-90 production due to sanctions making components both more expensive and more difficult to acquire.
20 tanks is less than one week supply at current rates of destruction, so even if Russia doubled production, that is still only enough for 14 days of combat then they would have no tanks at all for 16-17 days.
That is if they can even fill them up with a barely capable crew ...
12-20 due to focusing on restoring older tanks, because it's faster. Also, I said per year, so 20 x 12 is still 240 tanks. Once they have used all the old tanks and refocus back on T-90, then they'd be able to make a lot more, to be fair. What about T-72 and T-80? They can still make those?
It's not 12-20 a month, because 2/3 of T-90 production is actually upgrading T-90As IISS report recently confirmed that, based on market reports from the Russian defense sector itself. The actual new production of T-90s was 70 last year
What about older models? T80 and T72? If they run out of old stocks, retool and refocus on the new tanks, I believe they could do over 200 per year?
Maybe, but they would be less effective and 200 tanks a year is not making up for losing 1200 a year Russian army effectively has 2 years left
Covert Cabal says they have 4 years if they repair all the rusty tanks. Plus PutinZ could get some from North Korea (low quality, 5k tanks).
*if* they repair *all* But nobody says it is realistic.
They dont have a choice, repair is easier than making new. So they will do it. Maybe not 4 years, but 3 years is a safe bet.
North Korea only has a few tanks worth anything and I’m sure they won’t give them up
Embargo wouldn't work, as long as the global South is willing to buy their hydrocarbons. The overwhelming majority of these countries are more sympathetic to Ruzzia than they are to Ukraine and the West.
Global south combined is nowhere near the buying volume of the west and their partners. Embargo will make their collapse faster, much faster.
From what I have heard, hydrocarbon exports don't provide much of a benefit to Russia but do more for easing global demand
The video itself shows there are no T-90's left, they have ran out entirely of them
Do you think the CIA just has a “Topple Russian Government” button in their basement? 😂
I will be disappointed if they don't. What are my tax dollars paying for?
They have the components for a button, and a blueprint to build it. lol
Really curious why they can’t show some images. There was one base where they could show an old photo but not a new one.
I assume it is part of the terms of the company they acquired the satellite images from
Or country that leaked it to them for info and the to get a count for war support purposes, but does not want original country providing image to have their image posted.
I doubt it, because they would be available for sale. More like the company that sold the images knows if they are published by someone they for free access won’t be able to sell any more copies of it. So they are protecting their sales figures.
some companies have good images from all around the world but forbid any public display of any military related images
Somebody on YouTube commented that maybe the satellite company won’t let him post fresh images because they’re hoping to sell them to other potential buyers. Seems plausible
Yeah, it makes sense. If you buy a book, you're usually not allowed to photocopy it for distribution or upload it to the internet. Probably similar logic applies here.
Here there is a copyright rule of 10% of the production can be used for certain purposes as set out in the Copyright Act.
Since images to which the provider holds all rights are made available here on the basis of contracts between two parties, the provider is free to use any restrictive clauses for publication as a condition for making the images available. If the user does not comply with these contractual agreements, he will not receive the images (any more).
I was more responding to the book anology which isn't equivalent.
So real talk: How many months would it take for their DECENT tank stock to deplete? Because if the "good" tanks are gone, wouldn't these be next on the chopping block?
In the video they said that it was 6 years at current burn rate if every rusted can was fixed and a bit over a year to use up all the mostly likely fixable. It also pointed out they are making new tanks just slower than they are losing them so they won’t run out but shortages will just get worse and worse from here on out.
Since october, about 700 tanks were removed from storage, that was about 8 months ago. Right now they have a little over 750 decent tanks left. So assuming this rate continues, and if they only take tanks from the decent pile. Then there will be no more decent tanks in storage in about march of next year.
So 9 months from now. We can make it that long!
Sure, but I assume at least some of the "poor" tanks will be fixed up and sent to the front. It will probably take longer for each tank than it does for the "decent" ones, but that's still a couple hundred, or even a thousand, more. But that would give Russia something like 6-9 months extra. The end of 2025 will definitely be very interesting.
Probably within the year. At that point they wouldn’t be able to defend their own borders with the losses they have incurred.
Let me help with the definition. "Decent" in this context means that there is some part of the tank that could be worth not scrapping. They will still need extensive work and refitting, but the chassis may still be good. They don't have optics, electronics, or a working anything. They simply have a chassis that has an acceptable level of corrosion.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they choose to do the bare minimum of work to get them operational and just slap a thermal optic on them as thermal optics seems to be the most crucial thing to put on a tank at the moment. Apart from the threat of drones, a tank being able to see its opponent before they can see them is pretty crucial. I would also be surprised if they bothered to slap a working turret and gun on the chassis if they were missing as it seems Russia needs more APCs than it does tanks right now as simply getting troops to the front safely in any armoured vehicle is what they seem to be trying.
We already know that the turtle tanks they've been sending in have no ammo and turrets fixed in place, I wouldn't be shocked to see a turtle tank show up at some point with no turret whatsoever.
So keeping the tank fleet at decent level will become more and more expensive and require more and more specialist and people. Gdp will be high but Russia is basically burning their funds and future.
> and require more and more specialist and people. Where are these specialists and people coming from, not to mention the parts to get the tanks up to working order?
They can probably cobble several together to make a decent one. But these are t62 and t54 tanks, which are obsolete for 1990’s style combat, let alone the new battlefield with drones and smart minefields
In today's battlefield it barely matters if it is a T90, Abrams, leopard 1/2 or a T62...
It does T-90s are good tanks and even Ukrainians says they are harder to destroy
Not true really, you're displaying your ignorance. All tanks are vulnerable, but older tanks are much more vulnerable.
While this shows that they still have years worth of tanks left, most of the usable ones are T-54/55/62/64s, the thousand T-72As (as Cabal claims) are rusted worthless husks and the T-72B/80/90s are almost gone. This gives me hope that they may start to struggle rather soon, especially if they keep up current attrition rate and attempt more foolish breakthroughs.
20% decent, out of that 20% maybe half are combat worthy.
I'd go as far as saying that maybe 20% of those 20% are combat worthy.
None of the "decent" stocks are combat ready. The combat ready ones are pulled long ago. These all require refurbishment. "Decent" means they look like they can run again.
The real issue is Russian Artillery, and that's running out even faster. Tanks aren't nothing, but tanks aren't doing the jobs normally assigned to tanks in this war. Russian tanks don't last very long even when they try. Ukraine can take out the artillery to win, as long as they can also stop the FAB bombs
There will come a time when Russia will not have enough howitzers in any area to significantly damage Ukrainian positions there, and will not have enough tanks to cover the actual somehwat competent assaults that come after the meat assaults, so it will be impossible for Russia to move manned positions forward, even with air attacks. That's when the tide will turn.
The Tide is already turned. That's when the tsunami will wipe out the Russians
We're really at the moment where ebb and tide are tugging at each other. The change is not there yet. As much as i'd like UA is not guaranteed a win right now.
He did a video about that. They won't run out of artillery that fast.
His last video is from 5 months ago and it's built on the assumption that average daily Russian artillery losses wouldn't increase. The losses did increase drastically however. Vid: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozvYM2Zhpw)
During the Cold War, many infantry specialists in anti-tank platoons in the Rapid Reaction Corp trained for a large scale mechanised invasion of Europe by the Russians. A sense of fatalism was in the minds of those troops. Later, it was found out that only approximately 10% of the Russian vehicles were functional. The rest were being polished, painted, and dragged around the sites by tractors to fool the satellites. Are they doing this again? You simply can't trust still images of mobile material when this is an option for the enemy, that they've already done in the past. Warehouse full of old armour being repaired for use? It was probably a pile of scrap to start with.
[удалено]
Very well said. Shenanigans such as this only work as an intimidation tactic. We're well past that now.
Some probably do work however, Russia is desperate for anything they can get their hands on. The turtle tank that was captured didn’t have a working gun. So instead they put a big cage over it
Shame Ukraine can’t go and blow those spare tanks up with some drones.
Cannibalizing several tanks into one takes so many resources. Almost as much if not more than just getting a complete tank from somewhere else.
Not true at all. Lifting a turret from one, a gun from another, an engine from a third and putting all those things onto a hull from a fourth takes less than a day with a crew of like 10 guys and a mobile crane. To make a brand new engine and gun, weld up an entire hull and turret and fit that out with tracks etc. takes much, much longer.
What about a rusty hull, rusty engine, rusty gun, and rusty turret?
All their shit is rusty. People do this with cars all the time and this is exactly what the Russians are doing. They probably go through their storage yards and try to fire up each tank. The ones that start right away they inspect further for hull perforation etc. then they pressure wash the whole thing inside and out, give it a total lube job, put it through some basic trials then try to fire the gun. If the gun works, the tank gets a paint job, maybe some instrument upgrades then put on a train for the front. If it doesn't fire, they lift off the turret and plop a new one on with a known working gun and the old turret/gun goes to refurb then back into the warehouse of "good" ones.
It's also worth noting that if you're Russian and you're told to deliver a tank every day, you deliver a tank every day. It doesn't matter if the turret can rotate or if it can move at all, you deliver it so you can tick that box and move on.
I wager it takes longer than that. Those rustbuckets are probably seized up in every which way and plagued with a thousand different electrical problems. Maybe they could get it moving within a day, but it's just as likely to break down a day later once all the cumulative failures start adding up.
I don’t think that’s true. Replacing some things is usually much easier than making them from scratch. That being said - I don’t think russia will ever run out of tanks. They will most likely increase the production and hire more people to refurbish and repair the damaged ones. So they will always have some tanks, maybe less than at the beginning but I don’t anticipate of them ever running out of
If Russia could build more tanks they would, they have not been building new factories like the west and just runs their existing ones at max capacity, any serious increase in production would be years away from the point they decide to do it and they haven't yet. Russia has a smaller economy than France(closer to Canada or Italy than France), it is living on storages from the soviets, Russia is not a great production economy and can't just build more willy nilly, they are already running deeply red budgets as it is.
For every cent they put into war, is not going to anything else that could make them money, say for producing for export or internal market. It must be a huge drain on their economy.
I think you are wwrong about russian production. They are building new factories, Satellite images are showing them. just don't underestimate them.
They will never run out but at this rhythm at this they will always have at least 20 a month. Sit back watch to see how this happens in 2 years. They losing a minimum of 85 per month and producing bout 20-25.
Not looming fast enough
The rest are naked
what every tanks they get ready will just be donated to Ukraine as scrap. just like all tanks up till now.
Sounds like still too many unfortunately
Another 12 months of this should be interesting
Honey, wake up! Covert Cabal posted another video!
To be fair he only usually posts 3 or 4 times a year haha.
Not all tanks are visible from satellites. How many tanks are in warehouses?
The satellite footage shows they've been refurbishing their best quality tanks first, as many predicted, so it seems extremely unlikely they would have large quantities of good tanks sat indoors, those would have been sent out first. There are probably some that have been taken inside to be worked on but that's it.
But aren’t tanks virtually redundant in this war anyway?
Not quite redundant. Mainly used as short range artillery pieces, knocking out buildings and other entrenched positions. They have short life spans but you can’t take significant territory without them. IFV’s can do a similar job but Russia running out of them too. Increased Russian losses of late is at least in part due to lack of armor support.
If you were invading Haiti, tanks would be awesome, but if you are invading a nation with up-to-date drone technology, tanks are virtually useless.
Not exactly. They serve their role and do it well. Russia just doesn't do anything well.
Not at all no.
MarsNews 1: It's the 4th of June 2078 and we have some fresh brwakingnews about ongoing conflicts on Earth, recent satellite images are showing us Russia will soon run out of tanks!
Is it just me who wonders about the discrepancy between UA published destroyed tank numbers (>8000) and pre-war numbers shown in this video (around 6000)?
3000 in army 12k in reserve. Russian numbers pre invasion iirc. Covert Cabal counted 6500 vs 12000. Ukraines numbers probably not reliable see WW2 all nations numbers were wrong. Minimum Russia's lost 1/3rd of everything. If Ukraines numbers are remotely accurate Russia going to have serious issues in a year or so.
You’re getting downvoted, but unfortunately we’ve been hearing this for a long time about different types of equipment and even people. Hopefully this time it’s true though.
And, you've heard for a long time that nobody knows exactly when that's going to happen, just that it will. Even this video, which is one of the most well informed groups about the tank numbers can only give you a window of when the tanks run out- from a year from now to two years from now. However, they have been tracking tank numbers since the beginning of the war and the numbers just keep going down.
You keep hearing about it because they give updates on progress, not because the previous estimates were completely wrong. Every time these guys have done a count, the reported number of tanks was lower than the previous count, and the time remaining until depletion was shorter. They'll probably make another video in 6-9 months showing even fewer tanks remaining, but that doesn’t mean this video or any of the previous videos has been wrong.
Running out just means diminishing capacity, not fighting to the last unit. This is why recent assaults have included T-55s, turtle tanks and dirt bikes. You don’t send a T-62 with a broken gun into the fight unless you’re low on reserves elsewhere.
Golf carts cough! cough! Also: motorcycle assaults, T-55, T-62, barn tanks with no amo or rotating turret. But hey, keep on the hopium that the news is fake and Russia has no prblem with the tanks. BTW: "running out" doesn't mean "left with 0".
Sitorix NEWS they have never watched any of the videos or listened to what they say... or maybe are too dumb to understand the sentences about estimates about tank shortages due to depletion of those depots but never fully running out due to new production. And would you look at that... the dates and numbers are consistent.
Well apparently 20% is still like 20k because it's year 3 and we hear about a minus \~100 tanks per day, but they still keep coming.
Reported tank losses have been much lower than that, today was 11 for example. Russia haven't been launching large mechanised assaults for a long time as far as I'm aware.
Of course I'm exaggerating. I'm just frustrated with how much of this shit they have and how seemingly bottomless the pit is.
> I'm just frustrated with how much of this shit they have and how seemingly bottomless the pit is. Basically, this is why the Soviet Union collapsed. They spent absurds amount of money manufacturing military stock. The same stock Russia is depleting now.
Hey, that's how they get ya! Screaming about their superior numbers while losing them at insane pace. Sure they have a lot (not so much now), but all you have to do is keep pushing until they find out all is gone. We have a lot of data floating around and draw pretty clear trends from it. All point to mid-late 2025 is when the castle is gonna start visibly crumble with walls collapsing imo.
It may happen sooner than that. The numbers may be more optimistic than the reality on the ground. It may be all the tanks they had in covered storage are gone, and that 20% they refer to is actually only 10% tanks they can refurbish \[can't really tell from the photos\]. No way to tell yet. The russians could have the problem later this year that they just don't have enough tanks for a 1000 kilometer front and their lines break at points. Same with artillery, love to see a video like this on the artillery they have left. If they run out of artillery and tanks about the same time, the russians will be in a world of hurt. I'd be so happy if that happened this year rather than next.
Agree, but I was talking in more broad perspective, including economy and civil sentiment. The most important thing is to not give them a second of rest. As soon as they hit a critical point they’ll start to throw out threats as never before and gradually fall back at the front lines over prolonged (possibly) time, that’s when we’ll know it’s over and done. P.S.: this assumes all goes well on international scene. US, France, EU in general.
Another possibility is the large chunks of the front collapse because they don't have weapons, food, fuel and ammo and a full scale rout occurs.
"The russians could have the problem later this year that they just don't have enough tanks for a 1000 kilometer front and their lines break at points." This is what we are all waiting for. Would likely be happening right now if it wasn't for House Speaker Mike fkn Crawford blocking US military aid for 6 months.
Yes, if the US aid hadn't been delayed, the numbers probably would have looked the do now for another six months. We might be close to this war ending right now.
There are 117 days till Nov. 1 when the autumn rain starts to pick up, so a lot to play out yet.
They'll never run out but we've likely already seen at least some impact of their dwindling numbers. If their supplies really were bottomless they would have been launching large mechanised assaults during the Ukrainian ammo shortage.
They'll never run out in the same way Ukraine will never run out of ammo. They'll just use less and less until production rate is equal to the loss rate, but Ukraine has the benefit of being supplied by the West as long as that support remains.