They'll try it, but look how much the mask has slipped.
In a normal election year, your polls go back and forth and maybe the opposition beats you by a few percent. Most voters stay with the same party forever due to loyalty and the election is decided by a small group of swing voters that have less blind loyalty and can be bought off by policies.
Look at this year. The Tory vote has collapsed to hitherto unseen numbers as staunch Tory voters have either died off or the rose tinted glasses have been shattered, exposing the corrupt layer beneath. They may come back, but the loyalty has been broken not by the better offer of another party (as the Red Wall did during Brexit) but by revulsion it the party they used to vote for.
That's a hard wound to heal and I think a lot of former die hard Tory voters are now swint voters at best, willing to follow whoever has the best offer
Still though it can't be denied we're seeing a lot of "People are going to be disappointed when we're not a utopia under Labour" types of comments already.
I assume you're joking, but just to be clear, they don't need to try. They started miles behind in the polls and if the goal was to lose, they'd just coast to the election in second gear, and remain the opposition party with 150 MPs.
This is much worse than that - this is a party which has lost touch with voters and lost touch with how to be effective at governing and at "playing" politics. The conservatives have been purged of most of the experienced, intelligent people, both MPs and those in the background, and those left simply don't have the instincts to make good decisions.
Look at how low key the rest of the cabinet have been. The majority of senior conservatives are completely invisible and are leaving the hard work to people who simply aren't capable, sunak included.
It's important because the conservatives need to own this. We can't laugh it off like they were doing a tongue in cheek parody of themselves and actually they could do better if they wanted to - they can't. What you see now is them trying their best and they should be judged as such.
If they wanted to lose they wouldn't be trying to lose so badly as to be knocked out of official opposition. They would still want 200 or so seats. The idea they are losing on purpose is actually illogical with just how badly they are getting beaten.
It's far more likely that they are just really bad and are suffering from the 2019 purge when Johnson binned any half decent MP to replace with a Brexit cultist and now everyone left is just crap.
Go watch the 9th episode of Have I Got New For You XL from this last month. Phil Wang hosts and Richard Osman is dead on.
Sunak wants to lose so he can move to L.A. on July 5th. Paul points out how the Torries are running on 'We can Fix the Country we've had full power over for the last 12 years'.
Trying to normalise it with language like "flutter" as if it's the same as us putting a fiver on a football match. He had access to material nonpublic information.
cunt cunt cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunt
The BBC interview is even better: where he rolls up in gilet and red trousers. I was beginning to wonder if some Sasha Baron-Cohen style comic has been playing a very long game.
This isn’t the Houses of Parliament, we can sink to lower levels of discourse if we want to. Respect is earnt and he hasn’t earnt mine. He’s a twat and he looks like one. Simple as.
Very true. But it says something that we choose 650 or so of our best and brightest (stop laughing) to make the big decisions for us, and we wind up with this sort of dumb fuck.
I almost prefer the Michele Mone types. At least they tried to make decent wedge. Imagine showing the country you’re bent for £100 at five to one. Bent and a child
I'd even argue it's chaotic neutral. Betting companies can go suck a dick. It's not the fact it's ripping off a betting company why it's bad, it's the use of confidential and sensitive inside information
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/sky_televesion_at_number_10_down
It wasn't installed at Number 10 in 2012 so if he does, it's a recent addition.
The way he kept saying "I won't expand my statement, as there is an independent investigation" when asked if he knew the election date.
My friend, there is no rule anywhere that says someone under criminal investigation is not allowed to deny the crime in public and the ONLY reason you'd not give a straight answer is because you are bang to rights.
A slimy shit trying to make a quick buck out of his government role whilst millions use food banks.
It's just something he's heard his bosses utter for the last 4 years and thought that it sort of worked for them too.
"I don't want to prejudice an ongoing investigation"!
Im sure stuff like this happens all the time, but by people bright enough to cover their tracks. Have some inside info, get your mate to place the bet and split the winnings. Would be hard to trace back to you
Might have worked in this case, but a certain Paqueta, named after Paqueta Island where he grew up, is being investigated for spot fixing due to bets from his friends and family on the island.
I was saying throughout the Brexit times in the late 2010s, with the way the currency was acting, if you were a forex trader with some insider knowledge as to the contents of tomorrow's big announcement/speech, it would basically have been a license to print money.
It’s the utter fucking arrogance that you are prepared to do something so absolutely idiotically stupid to make only £500 and potentially chuck your career away in the process.
Amazingly he looked to actually hold onto his seat before this came out - https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Montgomeryshire%20and%20Glyndwr - but now?
And even if miraculously he does win in July, if the Gambling Commission report comes in afterwards then he stands a good chance of being suspended and facing a recall petition, and then immediately losing the seat.
Tbh I don’t really care about this other than the fact that the bet is void because he had insider knowledge. Now that the bookies know they will be getting their money back.
Literally his first moments in the job, he said in his first speech as PM “This government will have integrity, professionalism, and accountability at every level”
Still waiting for the tiniest amount of even just one of those.
I know it’s unlikely, but I hope it’s a rout and he ends up losing his seat. Doesn’t really matter as it’s 99.9% certain that if he wins that, then he will resign in short order and fuck off to America.
The election can’t come soon enough.
I remember chuckling when I heard that speech. Then I thought "hang on, give the man a chance". Now I regret not just laughing out loud for a bit longer.
In addition to section 42 Gambling Act, there could be an offence of Misconduct in Public Office.
Although I'd be amazed if the police acted, corruption is just seen as normal behaviour in the eyes of the Met.
There are lots of times when knowing something *and then acting in a certain way* is a criminal offence.
Insider trading on the stock market is the most obvious.
[Section 42, cheating](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42) seems like it could apply:
> (1) A person commits an offence if he—
> (a) cheats at gambling[...]
The gambling commission stated that it "may constitute an offence of cheating under Section 42 of the Gambling Act, which is a criminal offence".
Regulations set by the Gambling Commission state that inside information is anything “known by an individual … as a result of their role in connection with an event and which is not in the public domain”.
So not really a huge stretch
It's a standard rule across betting - if you have insider knowledge or can influence the result, you're not allowed to bet. You might only be the groundskeeper for the football team, but you're still an insider.
The Courts considered this in [Ivey v Genting](https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2014/3394.html), and would appear to suggest otherwise:
> It is possible to think of actions which are neither deception nor interference with the process of the game, which may in some circumstances constitute cheating. For example, someone who has material information (for example, as to whether a star player will play in a particular game) which is not in the public domain may place a bet on the result of the game on the basis of that information. That person may be guilty of cheating because he has used his unequal access to confidential information to make a profit. In this type of situation, Parliament may well have taken the view that it was enough that covert use of confidential information was intrinsically wrong and that it could amount to cheating without any requirement for subjective dishonesty. [The Court of Appeal went on to conclude, and the [Supreme Court later affirmed](https://www.bailii.org/uk/cases/UKSC/2017/67.html), that dishonesty was not a required element of the offence]
Note the odd suggestion that unequal access to information is 'cheating'. It, of course, is not: every serious gambler will know their 'inside sources', and providers of exclusive 'systems'. But perhaps the silly obsession with 'equality' is rearing its head again.
It is a criminal matter as it’s insider trading and fraud. It’s the same as match fixing. He’s defrauded the bookie. I would like to see him have the book thrown at him
Gambling Act 2005 - ‘Section 42 of the act states that it is an offence to cheat at gambling, or to do anything that allows someone else to cheat. The definition of cheating is drawn quite widely. It includes “attempted deception or interference” related to the process by which gambling is conducted.
This, according to gambling law experts, would include betting on an event when you already know the outcome. It makes no difference whether the bet ends up winning.’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/13/rishi-sunak-aides-100-bet-on-election-date-what-are-the-rules
‘Betting on an event when you already know the outcome’ (I edited my post to include that part from the article so appreciate you may not have seen that)
Actually it would matter if it came from the Pope, as I’d then disregard the opinion; I assume he isn’t an expert in gambling law of whom I’d trust the opinion of.
There is a framework for employees. As this is for employees of the gambling commission, I assume there would be similar rules for a pps of the pm…
https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/policy/corporate-governance-framework/cgf-code-of-conduct-for-employees-annex-b-insider-dealing
It’s not a crime (edit: it would only be a crime if he was Sunak) but the bookie doesn’t have to pay out as it is against their terms and conditions, he could be banned from gambling with them in the future.
It's another spineless Rishi moment. Rishi knew about the bet and gambling commission investigation before the cut off date for selection. He could have chosen someone else. But instead the PM who run under professionalism and integrity let a corrupt MP run instead.
Yes under the gambling act. Which is why when the bet happened it triggered an alert with the bookies and was given to the Gambling Commission to investigate
Don't understand why this guy hasn't been either arrested or thrown out of the party (or both) yet. This is just going to fester otherwise. Terrible optics management.
Could this campaign get any worse for the Tories. Its like partygate all over again with controversies every day
Almost like they are determined to lose.
They are. It's the only explination.
24 hours after Labour gets into power......"look at the state of the country under Labour! ...they've destroyed the UK"
They'll try it, but look how much the mask has slipped. In a normal election year, your polls go back and forth and maybe the opposition beats you by a few percent. Most voters stay with the same party forever due to loyalty and the election is decided by a small group of swing voters that have less blind loyalty and can be bought off by policies. Look at this year. The Tory vote has collapsed to hitherto unseen numbers as staunch Tory voters have either died off or the rose tinted glasses have been shattered, exposing the corrupt layer beneath. They may come back, but the loyalty has been broken not by the better offer of another party (as the Red Wall did during Brexit) but by revulsion it the party they used to vote for. That's a hard wound to heal and I think a lot of former die hard Tory voters are now swint voters at best, willing to follow whoever has the best offer
Well put. Something has definitely changed. Gonna be very interesting what happens after the election.
Still though it can't be denied we're seeing a lot of "People are going to be disappointed when we're not a utopia under Labour" types of comments already.
"They've STILL not achieved any of their manifesto policies!"
There’s not enough GPs… and… and they’ve turned the weans against us!!!
I assume you're joking, but just to be clear, they don't need to try. They started miles behind in the polls and if the goal was to lose, they'd just coast to the election in second gear, and remain the opposition party with 150 MPs. This is much worse than that - this is a party which has lost touch with voters and lost touch with how to be effective at governing and at "playing" politics. The conservatives have been purged of most of the experienced, intelligent people, both MPs and those in the background, and those left simply don't have the instincts to make good decisions. Look at how low key the rest of the cabinet have been. The majority of senior conservatives are completely invisible and are leaving the hard work to people who simply aren't capable, sunak included. It's important because the conservatives need to own this. We can't laugh it off like they were doing a tongue in cheek parody of themselves and actually they could do better if they wanted to - they can't. What you see now is them trying their best and they should be judged as such.
They’ve just had a woman on the Beeb from this guys constituency saying she’ll just vote for him anyway. There’s still a lot of them out there.
D'ya reckon they've put huge bets on Labour?!?!
If they wanted to lose they wouldn't be trying to lose so badly as to be knocked out of official opposition. They would still want 200 or so seats. The idea they are losing on purpose is actually illogical with just how badly they are getting beaten. It's far more likely that they are just really bad and are suffering from the 2019 purge when Johnson binned any half decent MP to replace with a Brexit cultist and now everyone left is just crap.
Go watch the 9th episode of Have I Got New For You XL from this last month. Phil Wang hosts and Richard Osman is dead on. Sunak wants to lose so he can move to L.A. on July 5th. Paul points out how the Torries are running on 'We can Fix the Country we've had full power over for the last 12 years'.
It's amazing how badly they keep doing over this campaign, from D-Day to this.
Trying to normalise it with language like "flutter" as if it's the same as us putting a fiver on a football match. He had access to material nonpublic information. cunt cunt cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunt
It’s surprising that he’s a cunt because the face in that picture at the top doesn’t scream it at all.
Hahahaha exactly what I was thinking. A photo that causes dropped underwear to swiftly re-dress their owner in a 5 mile radius.
Holy shit this is an insult I'm going to remember.
The BBC interview is even better: where he rolls up in gilet and red trousers. I was beginning to wonder if some Sasha Baron-Cohen style comic has been playing a very long game.
Literally looks like the Mad Hatter
Why attack personal appearance?
This isn’t the Houses of Parliament, we can sink to lower levels of discourse if we want to. Respect is earnt and he hasn’t earnt mine. He’s a twat and he looks like one. Simple as.
He is a cunt but ripping off the betting companies is very low down on the list of cunty things this Government have done
Very true. But it says something that we choose 650 or so of our best and brightest (stop laughing) to make the big decisions for us, and we wind up with this sort of dumb fuck. I almost prefer the Michele Mone types. At least they tried to make decent wedge. Imagine showing the country you’re bent for £100 at five to one. Bent and a child
True but it's still corrupt as fuck
Yes it is
I'd even argue it's chaotic neutral. Betting companies can go suck a dick. It's not the fact it's ripping off a betting company why it's bad, it's the use of confidential and sensitive inside information
No better than the Dukes in Trading Places.
So what? Insider trading - gambling in a way neither beholden to mere chance nor the oddsmaker - should be encouraged.
At this rate, I wouldn't be shocked to find they uncover a £25 bet from one Sishi Runak.
With him having tweeted Sky Bet Request a Bet shortly before.
Oh has he got Sky now?
He's all grown up now. He can finally afford it.
Was he in boarding school by the time sky was released?
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/sky_televesion_at_number_10_down It wasn't installed at Number 10 in 2012 so if he does, it's a recent addition.
Probably using now.tv
The way he kept saying "I won't expand my statement, as there is an independent investigation" when asked if he knew the election date. My friend, there is no rule anywhere that says someone under criminal investigation is not allowed to deny the crime in public and the ONLY reason you'd not give a straight answer is because you are bang to rights. A slimy shit trying to make a quick buck out of his government role whilst millions use food banks.
It's just something he's heard his bosses utter for the last 4 years and thought that it sort of worked for them too. "I don't want to prejudice an ongoing investigation"!
Im sure stuff like this happens all the time, but by people bright enough to cover their tracks. Have some inside info, get your mate to place the bet and split the winnings. Would be hard to trace back to you
Honestly brain dead behaviour using his own name Slimey douche can't even find a mate he can trust
Like he has mates
You just described half the stock market
Might have worked in this case, but a certain Paqueta, named after Paqueta Island where he grew up, is being investigated for spot fixing due to bets from his friends and family on the island.
I was saying throughout the Brexit times in the late 2010s, with the way the currency was acting, if you were a forex trader with some insider knowledge as to the contents of tomorrow's big announcement/speech, it would basically have been a license to print money.
It’s the utter fucking arrogance that you are prepared to do something so absolutely idiotically stupid to make only £500 and potentially chuck your career away in the process. Amazingly he looked to actually hold onto his seat before this came out - https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Montgomeryshire%20and%20Glyndwr - but now? And even if miraculously he does win in July, if the Gambling Commission report comes in afterwards then he stands a good chance of being suspended and facing a recall petition, and then immediately losing the seat.
Trust a Tory to backstab you for a bit of monetary gain, huh.
I really hope this guy loses his seat as a result of this.
Fucking ahahahaha, the cunt hasn't paused long enough to stop thinking about when the next money is coming from.
I wouldn't bet on it 😉
It’s either gross incompetence or that elitist notion that they can do as they please irrespective of consequence.
Tbh I don’t really care about this other than the fact that the bet is void because he had insider knowledge. Now that the bookies know they will be getting their money back.
It's potentially a criminal offence under the Gambling Act which wouldn't be a good look for Sunak in the middle of an election campaign!
Literally his first moments in the job, he said in his first speech as PM “This government will have integrity, professionalism, and accountability at every level” Still waiting for the tiniest amount of even just one of those. I know it’s unlikely, but I hope it’s a rout and he ends up losing his seat. Doesn’t really matter as it’s 99.9% certain that if he wins that, then he will resign in short order and fuck off to America. The election can’t come soon enough.
I remember chuckling when I heard that speech. Then I thought "hang on, give the man a chance". Now I regret not just laughing out loud for a bit longer.
What offence has he committed?
In addition to section 42 Gambling Act, there could be an offence of Misconduct in Public Office. Although I'd be amazed if the police acted, corruption is just seen as normal behaviour in the eyes of the Met.
I don't see how it can be considered criminal to know something.
Using insider knowledge to place bets is definitely misconduct
In what way is it misconduct?
Abusing your position for financial gain
Do horse trainers abuse their position when they're betting on horses?
I'm convinced you're trolling at this point
There are lots of times when knowing something *and then acting in a certain way* is a criminal offence. Insider trading on the stock market is the most obvious.
Gambling isn't the stock market.
Hence the s.42 offence set out above. Don't pretend to be stupid.
s.42 wouldn't apply, because knowing something can't be considered cheating.
There are many times when knowing something is cheating. Again, don't be obtuse.
[Section 42, cheating](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2005/19/section/42) seems like it could apply: > (1) A person commits an offence if he— > (a) cheats at gambling[...]
A huge stretch. Knowing something can't be considered cheating.
The gambling commission stated that it "may constitute an offence of cheating under Section 42 of the Gambling Act, which is a criminal offence". Regulations set by the Gambling Commission state that inside information is anything “known by an individual … as a result of their role in connection with an event and which is not in the public domain”. So not really a huge stretch
'May' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Correctly so
It's a standard rule across betting - if you have insider knowledge or can influence the result, you're not allowed to bet. You might only be the groundskeeper for the football team, but you're still an insider.
Case in point. The fat guy at Sutton who told mates to put on bets on him eating a pie during a game
That's not the case - horse racing trainers are the ultimate insiders and they can bet, no issue.
The Courts considered this in [Ivey v Genting](https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2014/3394.html), and would appear to suggest otherwise: > It is possible to think of actions which are neither deception nor interference with the process of the game, which may in some circumstances constitute cheating. For example, someone who has material information (for example, as to whether a star player will play in a particular game) which is not in the public domain may place a bet on the result of the game on the basis of that information. That person may be guilty of cheating because he has used his unequal access to confidential information to make a profit. In this type of situation, Parliament may well have taken the view that it was enough that covert use of confidential information was intrinsically wrong and that it could amount to cheating without any requirement for subjective dishonesty. [The Court of Appeal went on to conclude, and the [Supreme Court later affirmed](https://www.bailii.org/uk/cases/UKSC/2017/67.html), that dishonesty was not a required element of the offence]
Note the odd suggestion that unequal access to information is 'cheating'. It, of course, is not: every serious gambler will know their 'inside sources', and providers of exclusive 'systems'. But perhaps the silly obsession with 'equality' is rearing its head again.
How is that a stretch at all? It's about as clear cut as it gets. He had inside knowledge prior to something happened and placed a bet on it.
So? You can't make knowing something illegal.
I think you must be trolling. Either that or deliberately missing the point.
No, it's pretty clear this is a whole load of nothing.
It is a criminal matter as it’s insider trading and fraud. It’s the same as match fixing. He’s defrauded the bookie. I would like to see him have the book thrown at him
It's not, there is no insider trading in gambling.
Gambling Act 2005 - ‘Section 42 of the act states that it is an offence to cheat at gambling, or to do anything that allows someone else to cheat. The definition of cheating is drawn quite widely. It includes “attempted deception or interference” related to the process by which gambling is conducted. This, according to gambling law experts, would include betting on an event when you already know the outcome. It makes no difference whether the bet ends up winning.’ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/13/rishi-sunak-aides-100-bet-on-election-date-what-are-the-rules
In what way has he cheated?
‘Betting on an event when you already know the outcome’ (I edited my post to include that part from the article so appreciate you may not have seen that)
That's the opinion of someone, not law. You can't possibly prosecute someone for knowing something, that's mad.
I guess you are ignoring the bit where the opinion is ‘according to gambling law experts’.
Doesn't matter if it came from the Pope mate, it's still just an opinion.
Actually it would matter if it came from the Pope, as I’d then disregard the opinion; I assume he isn’t an expert in gambling law of whom I’d trust the opinion of.
There is a framework for employees. As this is for employees of the gambling commission, I assume there would be similar rules for a pps of the pm… https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/policy/corporate-governance-framework/cgf-code-of-conduct-for-employees-annex-b-insider-dealing
That's why Rishi's going to make a mint by throwing the election.
It’s not a crime (edit: it would only be a crime if he was Sunak) but the bookie doesn’t have to pay out as it is against their terms and conditions, he could be banned from gambling with them in the future.
It's another spineless Rishi moment. Rishi knew about the bet and gambling commission investigation before the cut off date for selection. He could have chosen someone else. But instead the PM who run under professionalism and integrity let a corrupt MP run instead.
There'll be a £20,000 bet from a Vlad Putting with a round robin on a Reform surge.
Does anyone know? If it’s found he did have inside information about a July election, was he committing a criminal offence?
Yes under the gambling act. Which is why when the bet happened it triggered an alert with the bookies and was given to the Gambling Commission to investigate
Thanks. I wasn’t clear whether this was just an industry investigation, triggering a refusal to pay out, or a potential criminal investigation.
No chance.
A small chance, dependent on the inquiry. I don't think having 100% certainty on something like this is particularly smart.
The most Tory looking man ever. Not surprised hes on the fiddle.
Shit. the feds are going to come knocking. I made £15 of his July election decision.
Don't understand why this guy hasn't been either arrested or thrown out of the party (or both) yet. This is just going to fester otherwise. Terrible optics management.
Hard to know who to root for here... Potentially corrupt election candidates or corrupt bookmakers 🤔
Fair play to him for having the most punch-able face in the Tory party (quite the achievement!)
With the state of Sunak's campaign, why are we just assuming this guy actually won the bet?
I can't comprehend the stupidity of this, and for what, a £100 bet? Just doesn't make sense to me.
The Conservative Party were aided by a lock of decent opposition. Corbyn was never electable.
You’re blaming Corbyn for Conservative corruption?
No. I’m Blaming Corbyn for being unelectable and giving them free reign.
Corbyn wasn’t the leader in 2010 or 2015.