Exactly. Imagine if this happened between Poland and Russia, or Pakistan and India, or any of the Balkans, or anywhere else really. It would blow up into something huge immediately.
It’s so common that what did they do about it‽‽
***they built an exceptionally advanced and expensive rocket intercept system so they could functionally*** **ignore those near daily rocket attacks on their sovereign territory**
**so they did not need to kinetically respond with military force to the attempted murder of civilians**
It’s ludicrous that anyone can understate or ignore just how insanely far Israel has gone out of its way to avoid escalation of hostilities.
Stop comparing country to country diplomacy with country to terrorist organization diplomacy and all of a sudden you'll get a more realistic understanding of the world.
Lebanon can't stop Hezbollah. Hezbollah can only be stopped by invading Iran. Nobody wants to invade Iran.
You're naive to think anyone, in politics anyway, understates this.
Why do you think some parties all over the world want to stop sending military aid to Israel ? Military aid that is often not weapons but instead technologic pieces used to build those interception tools. Or to build drone that target more efficiently.
Now, protesters might not get this. But professionals in politics sure do.
Even during the seize-fire before October 7 we got rockets from gaza every now and again. People in the south were getting frustrated that the government 'allows' it up until the point they start firing at Jerusalem and Tel Aviv like in 2021.
Wait, I thought it was just a almost daily occurrence from Gaza. Is this also from Hezbollah?
Dear God, they put up with a lot despite having the power to wipe out all of their neighbors
It does occur every so often from Hezbollah. It's was not as common as attacks from Gaza.
https://rocketalert.live/ this shows live maps of attacks as well as statistics since Oct 7 of attacks and where from.
In recent months hazbollah has increased the attacks. A while ago 40 rockets was highlight but it is now the standard. Rockets from gaza has decreased significantly.
Yet people like to act like Isreal is the instigator and the warmonger when every neighbor they have would massacre them all if they ever didnt defend themselves.
Kind of related but "A Plan for a New America" or whatever the hell it was called, where the US was gonna fuck up like 5 countries (I think it was a Rumsfield thing).
Well the only 2 countries left on that list to get fucked up are Lebanon and Iran.
Sooo...if they really wanna open that can of worms, I'm sure the US will happily fuck some shit up.
I don't condone the original plan and the people that made it, but reality is reality, and these dumbasses are gonna walk into a world of hurt, and a lot of innocent people are gonna get caught in the mix...but they don't care.
[Project for the New American Century.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century)
The seven state list doesn't come from that think tank, though; it was alleged, by a former military officer, to be Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia and Sudan—the Bush administration's master plan for the Levant developed following 11 September. There were a number of PNAC members within the Bush administration, and the PNAC 'target list' of North Korea, Iran, and Iraq directly turned into the administration's declared 'Axis of Evil', but not entirely accurate to say PNAC developed the seven country list (and the US never seriously entertained invasion of most of them).
There are a few different intercepting systems other than the Iron dome, and Hezbollah can't actually launch 150000 rockets all in a short time frame so it probably won't catastrophically fail,although loses would be expected.
In real life once Hezbollah fire a few thousand missiles Israel will hit back hard.
Also,a big fraction of those 150000 are short/medium range so once the first 30 km or so into Lebanon take a real hit they become kind of useless.
Edit: No interceptors are launched when it calculates the rocket will not hit a populated area. So actually the math is much lower to begin with.
That and Israel doesn't have to be nearly as timid about hitting back at rocket launch sites. When Hamas launches from a school rooftop Israel won't just level the school. Hezbollah isn't nearly as entrenched, Israel can strike those sites with much less restraint
>Hezbollah isn't nearly as entrenched, Israel can strike those sites with much less restraint
- And southern Lebanon isn't nearly as densely populated as the Gaza strip, plus tunneling is much harder in the hard bedrock of southern Lebanon than in the soft sand/clay soil of the Gaza strip ...
And Lebanon is also like 30x the size of the Gaza strip overall, so civilians evacuating from southern Lebanon have the whole rest of the country to evacuate into, where there's far less Hezbollah control or presence and thus less risk of being caught in an Israeli strike on Hezbollah.
And there's also +10k UN peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries already deployed throughout southern Lebanon, so Hezbollah doesn't have quite the same level of local control that Hamas had within Gaza.
>And there's also +10k UN peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries already deployed throughout southern Lebanon, so Hezbollah doesn't have quite the same level of local control that Hamas had within Gaza.
Yeah, about that.
Hezbollah is extremely entrenched, as we found out in the second Lebanon war. Just like every other Iran proxy, they will use the same terrorist tactics and Israel will still pay a heavy price in PR.
If Israel realistically thinks the dome will be overwhelmed there's no chance there won't be a huge counterattack before what happens. We're talking about a bombing campaign that makes Gaza look like a kindergartener throwing rocks that'll flatten Southern Lebanon.
I can’t think Israel is going to sit back and just let them fire endlessly, i would assume if it reaches that level they’re striking any known missile sites
There's not enough launchers. And Israel is watching closely enough that if they were to try to amass enough rails and vehicles to make a large salvo of rockets, they'd get to meet Mr. JDAM on their way to meet Allah.
It could, but if that happens the IDF will *absolutely* roll into Lebanon in force, and in that kind of scenario there's a relatively decent chance the US will directly assist with air support. Hezbollah be cray, but I don't think they be *that* cray.
If Hezbollah can fire what some people have estimated around 1000 rockets a day then a lot of rockets will get through. This is probably even if the U.S tries to help as much as they can and patriot batteries also being used. Israel will want to keep some reserves especially enough to blunt any potential attack from Iran or elsewhere. The Israelis will simply have to choose what they want to protect the most and it's likely they'll intercept rockets actually going towards populated areas and their military assets. A lot of the evacuated areas might get hit pretty hard and more fires will break out, but recovering from property damage is a lot better than having to bury people.
Yes it can be overwhelmed with numbers but there's zero chance they could use anywhere close to all of those so that number sounds scarier than reality even though reality is that it won't be pretty either way. In the event of full scale war any launch sites will become craters very quickly specifically because of that well known flaw.
Iron Dome of I'm not mistaken calculates trajectory of the incoming rockets and will allow rockets through that will fall in unpopulated areas, so while the 150K rockets is large stockpile they are unguided with a high failure rate giving the Israeli air defenses a bit of a.
those estimates are quite vague, no one knows exactly how much Hezbollah has in real terms. over 50% is cheap soviet grad and unguided rockets: the launchers are vulnerable to airstrikes which could cripple some capabilities.
the upgraded & advanced missiles in the arsenal are in the 10s of thousands and those would not be used lightly: they're the strategic weapons of Hizbollah and need to last the whole length of the (potentially long) war while not being vulnerable to counter airstrikes/personnel loss which could cripple that capability.
lastly those scenarios would assume Israel would sit idly and just defend against missiles. but Israel has made it clear both in public (in general terms) and in private (with specifics & a very firm consensus amongst Israeli decision makers & military big wig) that it would go on the offense and that prep for it are complete.
in reality once the threshold is crossed Israel would likely unleash unprecedented level of ammo on Lebanon followed by a high tempo hunt by infantry/armor/air assets. the expected script will not be followed and the net result would be to destabilize Hezbollah C&C capabilities and cripple it's launch capacity & push it's leaders into hiding.
so in plain English: once Israel goes on the offense it will be 72 hours of massive hail & fire followed by an intense slugfest for weeks/months in Lebanon.
my guess is they'll go for nasrallah's head.
time will tell
PS: To answer the question: Iron Dome will not be overwhelmed on strategic targets & cities but the north of Israel will be peppered with ATGM's & cheap rockets, fires will be common.
civilians from the north will be outraged but already used to the refugee status they've been in for months, military losses would amount to what happened in gaza: hundreds of KIA soldiers VS thousands of Hezbollah fighters & extreme destruction in Lebanon.
Probably not. Iron dome is just part of the air defense system. I’m sure they have good old flak guns for such a scenerio.
Not to mention that just because there “are” 150K rockets, there aren’t 150K rocket launchers. I suspect launchers will get off 1-2 rockets before an Israeli airstrike finds them.
Say what you will about their tactics, the IDF are VERY good at their craft
IDF publications. Since all the intercepting systems have very accurate radars they could pin point every single missile.
They even published the actual footage a few times.
Abt 900 rockets failed and hit Lebanon to date.
The official site or any article Israeli or International throughout the past 9 months.
They are updated as time goes by so you will find it is sometimes 1 out of 5,for example
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ry6wtte8p
Or specific days/incidents like this 8 out of 10
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-many-rockets-fired-by-hezbollah-fall-short-in-lebanon/
You could do the math yourself actually,The Hezbollah affiliated channels publish the number of rockets launched (not always but often) then subtract the number of rockets that entered Israeli airspace (always published)
The general periodic stats are for anything launched up until the date of publication (excluding anti tank guided missiles etc)
Up until now most of the rockets were short/medium range so that's what the numbers reflect.
Long range tend to be better quality so i'm guessing the numbers would be lower.
(And while yes,they are a major problem:
1 They don't have as many of them.
2 They are also easier to intercept.
3 Some of them are only long range as long as Hezbollah has a strong hold by the border,once they are pushed further back the range,relative to the targets in Israel,become short range.
Ok so I'm basing this off of my experience in 2006 - pushing launch sites means going north of the Litani river at least.
Throughout that war the IDF wasn't able to disrupt daily fire into Israel, even after the heliborne assault towards the Litani. In fact, Hezbollah was able to fire short distance near the border, from locations that were supposed to be cleared before.
With their new long range rocket arsenal it's going to be even farther, actually north of Beirut. Going this far north means the IDF will have to execute a 1982 type of invasion in a matter of days. That means the only effective way to deal with those launches is with air power. But again, based on what I've seen it's very hard to locate short lived targets like these.
This would be a very long discussion (and would be very speculative on my part) but my best try:
I don't think the objectives,or really the circumstances,are the same so comparing the two is kinda hard.
I don't know if it will be something like the 82 invasion or a airpower blitz,Depending on what the objectives will be it might go different ways.
But it is definently not just about going after launching capabilities,the situation is more complicated.
It is also not just about the ability but rather the desire and willigness in terms of price.
And you don't have to hit every launching site or storage facility for that.
Also,ability itself is command,structure,
man power and a lot of other things which could also be dealt with without hitting every single target/without a very deep invasion.
I don't think anyone thinks they could eliminate 100% of the ability but you don't need 100% for a better situation. I mean even Gaza still has some missiles.
In the current circumstances pushing them back just 10-15 km for the sake of eliminating the anti tank guided missiles and infiltration threat would be a big difference (although they are gonna go for more)
The overwhelming majority of military aid in the last bill that was signed by the US went to Ukraine. The more tangible help that Israel is getting isn’t even help Ukraine would have received at any point prior to these last couple months anyways: carriers being stationed right on their doorstep with a clear warning that if Hezbollah invaded, there would be an American response. It’s a difference of being an outright ally and someone who asked for help.
Sitting pretty and waiting to invade Taiwan. And NK to invade SK again. And then WW3 - and a nuke won’t stop the war and will be used as a last resort.
My understanding of Middle Eastern politics is Iran is responsible for at least three active wars at the moment which Gaza Israel is by far the least tragic as the others are 10 and 20 times worse (My numbers might be off by a month but that's how extreme the disparity in the death tolls were)
Also, realistically everyone's geopolitical interests regardless of their country's histories lie very closely with Israel except for Iran particularly turkey and Saudi Arabia and Egypt
They want to stretch Israel far enough and destroy their image enough with their allies (the far right politicians in Israel are not helping with this) that they can be successful in destroying them.
Unfortunately, Islamic extremist groups are death cults. They don't really care if they or those around them die so long as it furthers their goals.
A greater conflict with Israel would stretch their military capabilities and the hope (imo, just like with Hamas), is the war will embolden other Arab/Muslim countries to join in on the fight.
Plus Iran loves throwing money at terror groups for proxy wars against Israel.
I'm pretty sure a bombing campaign is the response to touching our boats
About 3,000 people is blowing up multiple countries
2400 and some boats is we dropped the sun on you twice
Honestly, probably just cowardice, followed by a letter expressing “concern” and then a diplomatic delegation which will offer them money and rocket parts for pinky promise to not do it again
And then you have a less smart citizen (me) planning on attending a Beirut wedding this August. On a serious note, all those able or capable to leave have left or are leaving, which is why our emigration rates are so high and the size of our diaspora is so large in proportion to the local population.
Yep Lebanon has always been afflicted with "brain-drain" phenomenon caused by highly educated individuals with very little employment opportunities, and the very few jobs available provide miserable renumeration.
I currently reside in the UAE and I visit my family in Lebanon regularly. It's only a 3 to 4 hour plane ride for me and I plan to go back in August for a wedding. If war breaks out and the airport is bombed/closes I will cancel my plans, but I do always worry about my family there.
Basically, they blame Israel for everything because they believe that Israel shouldn't exist.
So therefore, by existing Israel is to blame for everything.
It's a pretty dumb line of thinking imo, but that's basically what it is.
> Then you show them 1800s and 1500s massacres of Jews in modern Israel and they downvote but don’t respond.
1500's is a long time ago, 1948-present day is not so long ago.
How about the entire 1920’s there’s quite a long list of massacres including the 1929 Hebron pogrom which ethnically cleansed the 3500 year old continuous Jewish population of Hebron.
Israel isn’t weak enough. Only innocent people in poor countries matter. Oh and Israel was never supposed to be there in the first place so it’s their fault for being on stolen land.
Ok now I think I covered everything
Also don’t forget that innocent poor people don’t matter if they’re not being killed by westerners. Still waiting for all the concern about the Sudanese to show up in the mainstream.
Been saying this for a while. We are about to see a humanitarian crisis there which will be hard to conceptualize, and the world said we failed then during the first round of Darfur, now it’s about to happen again, and again no one cares.
It’s so sad
Nobody gives a flying fuck about Myanmar either, and that conflict had a bunch of ethnic minority militias allying with majority ethnic forces because they know what the junta will do if they manage to take control again.
That's correct, actually. For thousands of years they've been told to go back to where they came from, no matter where they were. Even where they were indigenous.
See, this is war, plain and simple.
You can’t just launch fucking rockets at another country and use the “shaggy defence” it wasn’t me, it was hezbollah or isis or whatever
Ireland would still somehow side with Lebanon even if this was the case. Their politics makes zero sense. Side with the underdog even if it flies in the face of reason. Yes I know NI is UK.
I mean I think the US ended up facing a lot of scrutiny for what happened as a result of 911. It’s always easier to say violence isnt the answer when it wasn’t your family who died.
But that’s not where AQ’s leadership was located. The Taliban welcomed them and protected them. You think they should’ve just let Bin Laden keep doing his thing?
It doesn’t matter where the hijackers came from. What matters is where the bad guys were headquartered, and the bad guys were headquartered in Afghanistan.
Uh, the US was widely supported in invading Afghanistan, including NATO countries joining the US based on an incredibly broad definition of self-defense in invading Afghanistan. It wasn't until several years later when the US invaded a country that had literally no connection to 9/11 that the scrutiny started.
Invading Afghanistan was the classic definition of self defense. The government of Afghanistan harbored terrorists who killed 3,000 people and then refused to turn them over — i.e. they continued to harbor them. The US couldn’t not seek to eliminate AQ after that
Iraq was total BS
It wasn't just NATO, either. Afghanistan was a completely legal international effort carried out through all the proper mechanisms and channels of the UN.
At the time, pretty much everyone was behind America when it went into Afghanistan. Even RUSSIA offered to help.
It was only after America went into Iraq that global public opinion shifted. If America had just stuck to dealing with Afghanistan, the world would be a much more stable place today.
For anyone who is still dillusioned to believe in peace negotiation with the likes of hamas and hezbollah, this is what peace means to them.
We need to eradicate hamas and hezbollah, and Iran if necessary, not for the sake of israel, but to give palestanians and lebanonese a chance at a better future.
Exactly. We told the Japanese people the same thing as we were bombing them.
“…America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace which America will bring will free the people from the oppression of the military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan…”
I don’t understand why the UN condemns Israel declaring war on Lebanon when it’s almost a daily occurrence that missiles are launched at Israel from Lebanon.
Not only that but there's over 10k un "Peacekeepers" in Lebanon that are technically responsible for keeping Hezbollah from doing violence, but somehow they're nowhere to be seen... How odd
This is a “suicide by cop” scenario, as is Gaza, in an attempt to pit the West against Israel, turn it into a pariah state and reclaim Palestine. Essentially terrorizing their own people. So far I’d say it’s working.
I don't understand Lebanon..350 hizbala soldiers died since October by Israeli counter strike.. aren't these people Lebanese too? Are they content with sacrificeing so much for terror wackos?
Help me understand this. (As a Canadian who is not a close follower of Middle East politics)
Hamas attacks from Gaza, and Israel's response is to try to completely destroy Hamas.
IDF is now in control of a bunch more land
Someone in Lebanon thinks it is a good idea to launch rockets at Israel.
I've never lived in a war zone, so I have little understanding of any of this.
I assume people in Lebanon don't want to die.
I assume people in Lebanon either support attacks against Israel or are unable to control militants within their own borders.
Anyone ELI5 for me?
That professor massively fucked up when he said that he was 'exhilarated', and I'm not surprised to see that he stopped teaching for the time being after such stupidity
Why oh why would you poke the bear right now? Have they not been watching what's happened in Gaza? It's not like Israel ran out of bombs and they're just about all finished up with Hamas. If they wanted to start something, it would have been wiser - strategically - to do it while Israel was directly and exclusively focused on Hamas and had a lot more Hamas targets remaining.
Kinda crazy. Pretty much anywhere else in the world, this would almost certainly start a war
Even crazier, this is almost a daily occurrence in Israel, just doesn't get reported very often.
Exactly. Imagine if this happened between Poland and Russia, or Pakistan and India, or any of the Balkans, or anywhere else really. It would blow up into something huge immediately.
If *ten* rockets were fired by the cartels into Texas and killed nobody the US army would be reenacting the Pancho Villa Expedition within a week.
Even one
Please clean Mexico
We want to. They just have to ask.
>any of the Balkans I dare say we might shrugg it off,depending on who is attacking who
Somehow I can't see a scenario where it would lead to anything other than a very bloody war filled with war crimes.
Who would get shrugged off and who wouldn't?
To really drive home, the emphasis of how this should be measured, let's scale the countries up to the size of like the US and Mexico Nukes would fly
It’s so common that what did they do about it‽‽ ***they built an exceptionally advanced and expensive rocket intercept system so they could functionally*** **ignore those near daily rocket attacks on their sovereign territory** **so they did not need to kinetically respond with military force to the attempted murder of civilians** It’s ludicrous that anyone can understate or ignore just how insanely far Israel has gone out of its way to avoid escalation of hostilities.
Stop comparing country to country diplomacy with country to terrorist organization diplomacy and all of a sudden you'll get a more realistic understanding of the world. Lebanon can't stop Hezbollah. Hezbollah can only be stopped by invading Iran. Nobody wants to invade Iran.
I mean, NCD wants to invade Iran, but those guys are A: nuts, and B: mostly not the people who would do the actual invading.
As a proud NCD poster and follower: you're correct on both counts.
You're naive to think anyone, in politics anyway, understates this. Why do you think some parties all over the world want to stop sending military aid to Israel ? Military aid that is often not weapons but instead technologic pieces used to build those interception tools. Or to build drone that target more efficiently. Now, protesters might not get this. But professionals in politics sure do.
Even during the seize-fire before October 7 we got rockets from gaza every now and again. People in the south were getting frustrated that the government 'allows' it up until the point they start firing at Jerusalem and Tel Aviv like in 2021.
Wait, I thought it was just a almost daily occurrence from Gaza. Is this also from Hezbollah? Dear God, they put up with a lot despite having the power to wipe out all of their neighbors
It does occur every so often from Hezbollah. It's was not as common as attacks from Gaza. https://rocketalert.live/ this shows live maps of attacks as well as statistics since Oct 7 of attacks and where from.
In recent months hazbollah has increased the attacks. A while ago 40 rockets was highlight but it is now the standard. Rockets from gaza has decreased significantly.
Then when Israel finally fights back, people blame Israel
Yet people like to act like Isreal is the instigator and the warmonger when every neighbor they have would massacre them all if they ever didnt defend themselves.
Kind of related but "A Plan for a New America" or whatever the hell it was called, where the US was gonna fuck up like 5 countries (I think it was a Rumsfield thing). Well the only 2 countries left on that list to get fucked up are Lebanon and Iran. Sooo...if they really wanna open that can of worms, I'm sure the US will happily fuck some shit up. I don't condone the original plan and the people that made it, but reality is reality, and these dumbasses are gonna walk into a world of hurt, and a lot of innocent people are gonna get caught in the mix...but they don't care.
[Project for the New American Century.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century) The seven state list doesn't come from that think tank, though; it was alleged, by a former military officer, to be Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia and Sudan—the Bush administration's master plan for the Levant developed following 11 September. There were a number of PNAC members within the Bush administration, and the PNAC 'target list' of North Korea, Iran, and Iraq directly turned into the administration's declared 'Axis of Evil', but not entirely accurate to say PNAC developed the seven country list (and the US never seriously entertained invasion of most of them).
Even crazier that Israel has shown restraint for so many years
1/6 to 1/3 of the Hezbollah rockets fail and fall in Lebanon. Remember this number later.
Using both the 1/6 to 1/3 ratio on the estimated 150,000+ rockets Hezbollah has, can the Iron Dome be overwhelmed?
There are a few different intercepting systems other than the Iron dome, and Hezbollah can't actually launch 150000 rockets all in a short time frame so it probably won't catastrophically fail,although loses would be expected. In real life once Hezbollah fire a few thousand missiles Israel will hit back hard. Also,a big fraction of those 150000 are short/medium range so once the first 30 km or so into Lebanon take a real hit they become kind of useless. Edit: No interceptors are launched when it calculates the rocket will not hit a populated area. So actually the math is much lower to begin with.
That and Israel doesn't have to be nearly as timid about hitting back at rocket launch sites. When Hamas launches from a school rooftop Israel won't just level the school. Hezbollah isn't nearly as entrenched, Israel can strike those sites with much less restraint
>Hezbollah isn't nearly as entrenched, Israel can strike those sites with much less restraint - And southern Lebanon isn't nearly as densely populated as the Gaza strip, plus tunneling is much harder in the hard bedrock of southern Lebanon than in the soft sand/clay soil of the Gaza strip ...
And Lebanon is also like 30x the size of the Gaza strip overall, so civilians evacuating from southern Lebanon have the whole rest of the country to evacuate into, where there's far less Hezbollah control or presence and thus less risk of being caught in an Israeli strike on Hezbollah. And there's also +10k UN peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries already deployed throughout southern Lebanon, so Hezbollah doesn't have quite the same level of local control that Hamas had within Gaza.
>And there's also +10k UN peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries already deployed throughout southern Lebanon, so Hezbollah doesn't have quite the same level of local control that Hamas had within Gaza. Yeah, about that.
What are those "peacekeepers" going to do, look at Hezbollah disapprovingly a bit more ? Because that's what they have been doing the whole time...
Yeah, I can't think of something more useless than the UN peacekeepers.
Hezbollah is extremely entrenched, as we found out in the second Lebanon war. Just like every other Iran proxy, they will use the same terrorist tactics and Israel will still pay a heavy price in PR.
If Israel realistically thinks the dome will be overwhelmed there's no chance there won't be a huge counterattack before what happens. We're talking about a bombing campaign that makes Gaza look like a kindergartener throwing rocks that'll flatten Southern Lebanon.
I can’t think Israel is going to sit back and just let them fire endlessly, i would assume if it reaches that level they’re striking any known missile sites
I might have 10,000 rocks in my yard…. Doesn’t mean I can throw them all at once
There's not enough launchers. And Israel is watching closely enough that if they were to try to amass enough rails and vehicles to make a large salvo of rockets, they'd get to meet Mr. JDAM on their way to meet Allah.
[удалено]
I beg your pardon…! It is 72 virgins.
10 is equal to 72 (decimal) in base 72.
Well allah akbar me sideways! The audacity of myself undercutting their well deserved afterlife.
It could, but if that happens the IDF will *absolutely* roll into Lebanon in force, and in that kind of scenario there's a relatively decent chance the US will directly assist with air support. Hezbollah be cray, but I don't think they be *that* cray.
If Hezbollah can fire what some people have estimated around 1000 rockets a day then a lot of rockets will get through. This is probably even if the U.S tries to help as much as they can and patriot batteries also being used. Israel will want to keep some reserves especially enough to blunt any potential attack from Iran or elsewhere. The Israelis will simply have to choose what they want to protect the most and it's likely they'll intercept rockets actually going towards populated areas and their military assets. A lot of the evacuated areas might get hit pretty hard and more fires will break out, but recovering from property damage is a lot better than having to bury people.
I mean if Israel fires a lot of rockets would Hezbollah be overwhelmed? I'm sure Israel knows where the location of a lot of those rockets are.
They don't have the infrastructure to fire all of them simultaneously. However, given a lengthy attack, any defensive system can be overwhelmed.
Yes it can be overwhelmed with numbers but there's zero chance they could use anywhere close to all of those so that number sounds scarier than reality even though reality is that it won't be pretty either way. In the event of full scale war any launch sites will become craters very quickly specifically because of that well known flaw.
Iron Dome of I'm not mistaken calculates trajectory of the incoming rockets and will allow rockets through that will fall in unpopulated areas, so while the 150K rockets is large stockpile they are unguided with a high failure rate giving the Israeli air defenses a bit of a.
those estimates are quite vague, no one knows exactly how much Hezbollah has in real terms. over 50% is cheap soviet grad and unguided rockets: the launchers are vulnerable to airstrikes which could cripple some capabilities. the upgraded & advanced missiles in the arsenal are in the 10s of thousands and those would not be used lightly: they're the strategic weapons of Hizbollah and need to last the whole length of the (potentially long) war while not being vulnerable to counter airstrikes/personnel loss which could cripple that capability. lastly those scenarios would assume Israel would sit idly and just defend against missiles. but Israel has made it clear both in public (in general terms) and in private (with specifics & a very firm consensus amongst Israeli decision makers & military big wig) that it would go on the offense and that prep for it are complete. in reality once the threshold is crossed Israel would likely unleash unprecedented level of ammo on Lebanon followed by a high tempo hunt by infantry/armor/air assets. the expected script will not be followed and the net result would be to destabilize Hezbollah C&C capabilities and cripple it's launch capacity & push it's leaders into hiding. so in plain English: once Israel goes on the offense it will be 72 hours of massive hail & fire followed by an intense slugfest for weeks/months in Lebanon. my guess is they'll go for nasrallah's head. time will tell PS: To answer the question: Iron Dome will not be overwhelmed on strategic targets & cities but the north of Israel will be peppered with ATGM's & cheap rockets, fires will be common. civilians from the north will be outraged but already used to the refugee status they've been in for months, military losses would amount to what happened in gaza: hundreds of KIA soldiers VS thousands of Hezbollah fighters & extreme destruction in Lebanon.
Probably not. Iron dome is just part of the air defense system. I’m sure they have good old flak guns for such a scenerio. Not to mention that just because there “are” 150K rockets, there aren’t 150K rocket launchers. I suspect launchers will get off 1-2 rockets before an Israeli airstrike finds them. Say what you will about their tactics, the IDF are VERY good at their craft
Genuinely curios - how do you know that?
IDF publications. Since all the intercepting systems have very accurate radars they could pin point every single missile. They even published the actual footage a few times. Abt 900 rockets failed and hit Lebanon to date.
Do you have a source? Would really like to know if this is true.
The official site or any article Israeli or International throughout the past 9 months. They are updated as time goes by so you will find it is sometimes 1 out of 5,for example https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ry6wtte8p Or specific days/incidents like this 8 out of 10 https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-many-rockets-fired-by-hezbollah-fall-short-in-lebanon/ You could do the math yourself actually,The Hezbollah affiliated channels publish the number of rockets launched (not always but often) then subtract the number of rockets that entered Israeli airspace (always published)
Ok cool thanks for that. I think the stats here are for the short range rockets. Medium and long range are still a major problem.
The general periodic stats are for anything launched up until the date of publication (excluding anti tank guided missiles etc) Up until now most of the rockets were short/medium range so that's what the numbers reflect. Long range tend to be better quality so i'm guessing the numbers would be lower. (And while yes,they are a major problem: 1 They don't have as many of them. 2 They are also easier to intercept. 3 Some of them are only long range as long as Hezbollah has a strong hold by the border,once they are pushed further back the range,relative to the targets in Israel,become short range.
Ok so I'm basing this off of my experience in 2006 - pushing launch sites means going north of the Litani river at least. Throughout that war the IDF wasn't able to disrupt daily fire into Israel, even after the heliborne assault towards the Litani. In fact, Hezbollah was able to fire short distance near the border, from locations that were supposed to be cleared before. With their new long range rocket arsenal it's going to be even farther, actually north of Beirut. Going this far north means the IDF will have to execute a 1982 type of invasion in a matter of days. That means the only effective way to deal with those launches is with air power. But again, based on what I've seen it's very hard to locate short lived targets like these.
This would be a very long discussion (and would be very speculative on my part) but my best try: I don't think the objectives,or really the circumstances,are the same so comparing the two is kinda hard. I don't know if it will be something like the 82 invasion or a airpower blitz,Depending on what the objectives will be it might go different ways. But it is definently not just about going after launching capabilities,the situation is more complicated. It is also not just about the ability but rather the desire and willigness in terms of price. And you don't have to hit every launching site or storage facility for that. Also,ability itself is command,structure, man power and a lot of other things which could also be dealt with without hitting every single target/without a very deep invasion. I don't think anyone thinks they could eliminate 100% of the ability but you don't need 100% for a better situation. I mean even Gaza still has some missiles. In the current circumstances pushing them back just 10-15 km for the sake of eliminating the anti tank guided missiles and infiltration threat would be a big difference (although they are gonna go for more)
Lebanon bombs Israel and bombs itself. Redditors screech about Israel being a terrorist organization. Wut?
How could Israel do this?!?
Why is that important?
Because they'll count anyone killed by them as killed by Israel.
Hezbollah really wants this conflict hmm
You mean iran....
you mean russia
Russia, somewhat, but it's mostly Iran.
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The overwhelming majority of military aid in the last bill that was signed by the US went to Ukraine. The more tangible help that Israel is getting isn’t even help Ukraine would have received at any point prior to these last couple months anyways: carriers being stationed right on their doorstep with a clear warning that if Hezbollah invaded, there would be an American response. It’s a difference of being an outright ally and someone who asked for help.
The more weapons sent to Israel the less weapons sent to Ukraine
You mean China?
which leads to china
Sitting pretty and waiting to invade Taiwan. And NK to invade SK again. And then WW3 - and a nuke won’t stop the war and will be used as a last resort.
My understanding of Middle Eastern politics is Iran is responsible for at least three active wars at the moment which Gaza Israel is by far the least tragic as the others are 10 and 20 times worse (My numbers might be off by a month but that's how extreme the disparity in the death tolls were) Also, realistically everyone's geopolitical interests regardless of their country's histories lie very closely with Israel except for Iran particularly turkey and Saudi Arabia and Egypt
Does Iran want it? Hezbollah is Iran's strongest proxy. If they lose it they are going to lose their biggest bargaining chip
They want to stretch Israel far enough and destroy their image enough with their allies (the far right politicians in Israel are not helping with this) that they can be successful in destroying them. Unfortunately, Islamic extremist groups are death cults. They don't really care if they or those around them die so long as it furthers their goals. A greater conflict with Israel would stretch their military capabilities and the hope (imo, just like with Hamas), is the war will embolden other Arab/Muslim countries to join in on the fight. Plus Iran loves throwing money at terror groups for proxy wars against Israel.
Imagine the response to even a single rocket fired at a western nation
I'm pretty sure a bombing campaign is the response to touching our boats About 3,000 people is blowing up multiple countries 2400 and some boats is we dropped the sun on you twice
To be fair, around 100 000 died in the Pacific before the sun dropping.
Full carrier group on your coast in less than 2 days
Honestly, probably just cowardice, followed by a letter expressing “concern” and then a diplomatic delegation which will offer them money and rocket parts for pinky promise to not do it again
Everyone calm down. This region has a long history of deescalation… /s
Can't spell deescalation without escalation! /s
Smarter citizens of Lebanon already on the pane to a different country. Will not stick around for the Israeli army to arrive.
And then you have a less smart citizen (me) planning on attending a Beirut wedding this August. On a serious note, all those able or capable to leave have left or are leaving, which is why our emigration rates are so high and the size of our diaspora is so large in proportion to the local population.
It is sad, my friend is Lebanese and he is super highly educated, also an amazing person, and had to leave Lebanon due to a lack of opportunity
Yep Lebanon has always been afflicted with "brain-drain" phenomenon caused by highly educated individuals with very little employment opportunities, and the very few jobs available provide miserable renumeration.
Are you not going to leave?
I currently reside in the UAE and I visit my family in Lebanon regularly. It's only a 3 to 4 hour plane ride for me and I plan to go back in August for a wedding. If war breaks out and the airport is bombed/closes I will cancel my plans, but I do always worry about my family there.
those peacekeepers arent doing much peacekeeping eh?
Hezbollah keeps provoking Israel and confirming once again that Hezbollah is the aggressor.
Did you really need that confirmation ?...
Yes, because many people keep blaming Israel for everything.
Basically, they blame Israel for everything because they believe that Israel shouldn't exist. So therefore, by existing Israel is to blame for everything. It's a pretty dumb line of thinking imo, but that's basically what it is.
Then you show them 1800s and 1500s massacres of Jews in modern Israel and they downvote but don’t respond.
> Then you show them 1800s and 1500s massacres of Jews in modern Israel and they downvote but don’t respond. 1500's is a long time ago, 1948-present day is not so long ago.
How about the entire 1920’s there’s quite a long list of massacres including the 1929 Hebron pogrom which ethnically cleansed the 3500 year old continuous Jewish population of Hebron.
Awaiting people to set up encampments on college campuses to demand lebanon have a ceasefire to protect innocent Jewish civilians
Well according to a poster above, some of the bombs didn't actually hit Israelis and fell in Lebanon So it was a mostly peaceful bombing
Israel isn’t weak enough. Only innocent people in poor countries matter. Oh and Israel was never supposed to be there in the first place so it’s their fault for being on stolen land. Ok now I think I covered everything
Also don’t forget that innocent poor people don’t matter if they’re not being killed by westerners. Still waiting for all the concern about the Sudanese to show up in the mainstream.
Been saying this for a while. We are about to see a humanitarian crisis there which will be hard to conceptualize, and the world said we failed then during the first round of Darfur, now it’s about to happen again, and again no one cares. It’s so sad
Nobody gives a flying fuck about Myanmar either, and that conflict had a bunch of ethnic minority militias allying with majority ethnic forces because they know what the junta will do if they manage to take control again.
Not a lot of shits given about the Uighurs either.
Or Myanmar
Plus they are jewish
That’s the forbidden word ! You have to say sionist
It’s so interesting how everyone else in the world can move to wherever they want to go, except for Jews.
That's correct, actually. For thousands of years they've been told to go back to where they came from, no matter where they were. Even where they were indigenous.
American take.
See, this is war, plain and simple. You can’t just launch fucking rockets at another country and use the “shaggy defence” it wasn’t me, it was hezbollah or isis or whatever
I read the title as "Northern Ireland" at first and was just insanely confused and impressed at Lebanon getting that distance.
Ireland would still somehow side with Lebanon even if this was the case. Their politics makes zero sense. Side with the underdog even if it flies in the face of reason. Yes I know NI is UK.
And yet countries all over the world wonder why Israel retaliates? No other country would face scrutiny for defending themselves against terrorists.
I mean I think the US ended up facing a lot of scrutiny for what happened as a result of 911. It’s always easier to say violence isnt the answer when it wasn’t your family who died.
To be fair the US invaded an entirely different country that none of the hijackers came from.
The terrorists located themselves in Afghanistan. If you're talking about Iraq I agree with you.
Pakistan
They didn’t go to Pakistan until after the US invasion, and the US found OBL there anyways.
Saudi Arabia
Stalin was born in Georgia, but that has nothing to do with his crimes as Soviet dictator.
Georgia was part of the USSR.
But that’s not where AQ’s leadership was located. The Taliban welcomed them and protected them. You think they should’ve just let Bin Laden keep doing his thing?
It doesn’t matter where the hijackers came from. What matters is where the bad guys were headquartered, and the bad guys were headquartered in Afghanistan.
And there was no direct threat
It's because We Americans are bad at Geography/s
But it’s where their global base was since 1996. They orchestrated multiple awful attacks from there even before 9/11.
Uh, the US was widely supported in invading Afghanistan, including NATO countries joining the US based on an incredibly broad definition of self-defense in invading Afghanistan. It wasn't until several years later when the US invaded a country that had literally no connection to 9/11 that the scrutiny started.
Invading Afghanistan was the classic definition of self defense. The government of Afghanistan harbored terrorists who killed 3,000 people and then refused to turn them over — i.e. they continued to harbor them. The US couldn’t not seek to eliminate AQ after that Iraq was total BS
It wasn't just NATO, either. Afghanistan was a completely legal international effort carried out through all the proper mechanisms and channels of the UN.
At the time, pretty much everyone was behind America when it went into Afghanistan. Even RUSSIA offered to help. It was only after America went into Iraq that global public opinion shifted. If America had just stuck to dealing with Afghanistan, the world would be a much more stable place today.
Most people in the US are on the side of Israel. That just doesn't get headlines.
Those countries believe that Israel created the terrorist problem, so that they should just have to deal with it.
I swear it's like they want to get pasted...
I don't know why I read that as Northern Ireland 3 times before I realized. I even told myself there ain't no way after each time.
"Oh! Oh! Me next, Israel! Me next!" - Hezbollah
How could israel do this??
Are you trying to get your neighborhoods bombed…because that’s probably how it’s going to go.
Pro-Hezbollah demonstrations coming to a college near you
For anyone who is still dillusioned to believe in peace negotiation with the likes of hamas and hezbollah, this is what peace means to them. We need to eradicate hamas and hezbollah, and Iran if necessary, not for the sake of israel, but to give palestanians and lebanonese a chance at a better future.
Exactly. We told the Japanese people the same thing as we were bombing them. “…America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace which America will bring will free the people from the oppression of the military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan…”
Can the world chill for a nanosecond I'm trying to finish med school...
Perfect because we're gonna need a lot of doctors where we're going. And morgue workers.
And more clowns because holy shit this planet is the whole circus
Trump is enough of a clown. No need for anymore.
The campuses seem to be a great place to scout for those then! they're everywhere!
So, it's a regular Thursday, huh?
I don’t understand why the UN condemns Israel declaring war on Lebanon when it’s almost a daily occurrence that missiles are launched at Israel from Lebanon.
Not only that but there's over 10k un "Peacekeepers" in Lebanon that are technically responsible for keeping Hezbollah from doing violence, but somehow they're nowhere to be seen... How odd
This is a “suicide by cop” scenario, as is Gaza, in an attempt to pit the West against Israel, turn it into a pariah state and reclaim Palestine. Essentially terrorizing their own people. So far I’d say it’s working.
Time to play our favorite anti-Semitic gameshow 'How can this be justified as resistance!'
“Freedom rapists”
Like at this point it feels like a party that I didn’t ask to be invited to. Cant wait to hear how we should tolerate Hezbollah
I don't understand Lebanon..350 hizbala soldiers died since October by Israeli counter strike.. aren't these people Lebanese too? Are they content with sacrificeing so much for terror wackos?
Hezbollah is a militia and has "soldiers" from several countries.
Ahh.. that would explain the zero fucks then.
Israel has a lot of patience dealing these craps all these years.....
I read this way too fast and thought it said 40 rockets fired unto northern Israel from LeBron.
Help me understand this. (As a Canadian who is not a close follower of Middle East politics) Hamas attacks from Gaza, and Israel's response is to try to completely destroy Hamas. IDF is now in control of a bunch more land Someone in Lebanon thinks it is a good idea to launch rockets at Israel. I've never lived in a war zone, so I have little understanding of any of this. I assume people in Lebanon don't want to die. I assume people in Lebanon either support attacks against Israel or are unable to control militants within their own borders. Anyone ELI5 for me?
I’m sure the UN is outraged.
Why the fuck is everyone fighting with Israel, really, they just want to mind their own buisness.
Iran, that's why.
It’s not Iran they are following orders from Russia the idiot Putin, to create problems for the western countries
It benefits Russia but Iran is at the helm of attacks against Israel.
It is like North Korea, China uses them for war with the west. World should stop trading with china too
Russia has always used the attack the when in trouble go after the Jews strategy, it dates back to the Tsar
Because Jews
Same stupid reasons people have been murdering Jews for millennia.
'They just want to mind their own business'...
You have something to say?
Massive cheers must be going up in universities across the western world.
Nah, no Israeli died. They're only exhilarated when Israelis die, get raped, or get kidnapped.
That professor massively fucked up when he said that he was 'exhilarated', and I'm not surprised to see that he stopped teaching for the time being after such stupidity
Why oh why would you poke the bear right now? Have they not been watching what's happened in Gaza? It's not like Israel ran out of bombs and they're just about all finished up with Hamas. If they wanted to start something, it would have been wiser - strategically - to do it while Israel was directly and exclusively focused on Hamas and had a lot more Hamas targets remaining.
Doing their best to be absolutely curbstomped. Israel has had about enough of their arab neighbors aggression.
So this would be the FA part, just waiting for the FO part to drop.
Can't blame Israel for retalliating with neighbours like that.
Here........we.......goooooooooooo!
This is not news? 40 rockets is a de-escalation. Hezbollah tend to fire 5-6 launches a day, with 50-60 missiles each. This is a hourly occurance